Blogs

Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

The U.S. Income Balance Puzzle

The long-standing surplus in the U.S. investment income account, often cited as evidence of  “exorbitant privilege,” is receding. It already goes away without the income from profit-shifting by U.S. multinationals.

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NAFTA
Oil Production Has Moved North, and Auto Production South
Both Mexico and the U.S. are in a sense adjusting to (mild) oil shocks ...
Vietnam
Is Vietnam the New China?
Vietnam appears to be taking a page out of China's post-WTO playbook by intervening to keep its currency weak and its exports strong.
China
China’s Currency Is Back in Play
China's currency is getting awfully close to some key levels, levels where in the past China has resisted further depreciation. The signals China sends from here on will be critical.
  • Puerto Rico
    Looking Back on Fiscal 2018 as Puerto Rico Starts a New Fiscal Year
    Sales tax revenues have recovered. Fiscal year 2019, which started in July, should be a good year thanks to Federal disaster aid. The real question though is what happens when Federal aid starts to fall.
  • China
    My Latest Take on China's Foreign Exchange Intervention Proxies
    This one is for my currency trading friends...