Thailand

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. China sends more oil rigs to already-tense South China Sea. Two rigs are now stationed between China and the Taiwan-occupied Pratas Islands, and one has been given coordinates to be towed just outside Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone. Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang asked China to remove the rigs that are in disputed waters. China has been increasingly assertive in its claims to the Paracel and Spratly Islands, all of which are off Vietnam’s coast, and is reportedly moving sand onto reefs and shoals to support buildings and surveillance equipment. In Hanoi, Chinese and Vietnamese officials met on Wednesday for the first time to discuss the disputed waters, without much progress. The talks come on the heels of deadly protests in Vietnam against Chinese companies in May. 2. Japan protests Korean live-fire drills near disputed islands. On Friday, South Korea held a live-fire naval exercise thirteen miles south of the islands known as Takeshima in Japan and Dokdo in Korea. Korea has maintained administrative control of the islands since 1954, but Japan also claims sovereignty over the islands.Japanese chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga “strongly demanded that the South Korean government stop its plans,” and called the decision to go ahead with the drill “extremely regrettable.” In response, a South Korean defense ministry spokesman said that “when it comes to conducting a military drill for the self-defense of the Republic of Korea, any outside demand or interference is not a subject for consideration.” The South Korean navy went on to say that the drills were not meant to be aimed at Japan, but rather to practice targeting North Korean submarines. 3. Tens of thousands of Cambodian migrant workers flee Thailand. A month after the Thai army seized control of the country, rumors of a crackdown on undocumented workers have sent at least 200,000 Cambodians in eastern Thailand fleeing over the course of just twelve days. Many of the workers are leaving voluntarily, but the police have reportedly also forced many on buses and charged a 3,000 baht ($92) fine. The Thai government denied any new policy, saying, “No crackdown order targeting Cambodian workers has been issued.” According to the International Organization for Migration, most of the 2.2 million migrant workers in Thailand are from Myanmar and approximately 438,000 are from Cambodia. Thailand has a very low unemployment rate at 0.9 percent and could face a labor shortage if more workers flee. 4. Modi faces his first foreign policy test. Forty Indian expatriates were abducted in Iraq when the Islamic militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) seized Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city. A spokesman for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs announced today that the forty kidnapped workers had been found, but did not provide further details. In addition, forty-seven Indian nurses are stranded at a hospital in Tikrit, abandoned by their employers when ISIS stormed the city. The Ministry of External Affairs issued a travel advisory and set up a twenty-four-hour call line for families with missing relatives in Iraq. With over ten thousand expatriates working in Iraq, ISIS’ victories are chilling news for India. 5. China executes thirteen in Xinjiang. Thirteen people were executed in the restive province of Xinjiang, convicted of “organizing, leading and participating in terrorist groups; murder; arson; theft; and illegal manufacture, storage and transportation of explosives.” It was also announced that more than sixty terrorist and extremist suspects had been captured in the past month. The executions and arrests are part of the Chinese government’s intensifying response to a series of deadly attacks blamed on Uighur separatists in Xinjiang and other places in China, including Beijing’s Tiananmen Square and a train station in Kunming. Bonus: China says “House of Cards” is an accurate illustration of corruption, calls the United States “the Matrix.” On Tuesday, China’s Discipline Inspection Commission published an article linking the abuse of power seen on television to reality. The author said that corruption in shows like “House of Cards” and “American Gangster,” is real and widespread in Western societies like the United States. Some netizens criticized the article, saying that corruption in the West is only seen on television, while most Chinese “feel corruption in real time every day of [their] lives.” The pop culture references continued when, in unrelated news, a spokesperson from the Chinese foreign ministry called the United States "the Matrix," in response to U.S. Department of Justice indictment of five alleged Chinese hackers and in reference to the NSA’s Internet surveillance programs.

As an excellent piece in the Associated Press notes this week, Thailand’s junta appears to be entrenching itself for the long haul. Junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha has named himself to Thailand’s Board of Investment. The junta is putting other cronies at the heads of major state-controlled companies, Prayuth has left the timetable for a total return to civilian rule purposefully vague, and the coup leaders also have refused to say exactly what that civil government will look like, or what Thailand’s next constitution will look like either. (The generals essentially ripped up the previous constitution after launching the coup in May.) However, you can bet that the “democracy” Thais inherit some time after the junta steps down is going to bear little resemblance to the political system in Thailand of the past fifteen years–or to internationally accepted norms of what constitutes democracy. Having learned from Thailand’s 2006 coup, when the army failed to totally undermine the power of rural voters, the junta likely will push through new legislation that will never allow Thailand’s numerical majority to prevail over other power centers again. Instead, expect the post-coup “democratic” government to look like this: 1.  Appointed members of parliament or those selected from Hong Kong-style “functional constituencies” will have immense power in the next civilian government. The People’s Democratic Reform Committee protestors, who paralyzed Bangkok for months in late 2013 and early 2014 and helped trigger the coup, often pushed for such a scheme. A scheme in which appointed members of parliament constitute a large percentage of the chambers would dilute the rural majority’s power and keep Bangkok effectively in control of the legislature, which is especially important during a monarchical succession. (This idea of non-elected MPs has a long history, and dates back to previous elite protests in Thailand in the late 2000s.) The army leaders have said that they want to cool political temperatures and do not favor any side of Thailand’s poisonous color-coded politics, but that vow of neutrality already has been proven completely false. Expect the military to push through an appointed/functional constituencies scheme in which at least half of parliament’s upper and lower house (the Senate previously had non-elected members) is selected this way. 2.  Prominent members of Thaksinite parties will be banned from politics for life, unless they have already turned tail and totally given into the junta, like former Thaksin ally and former Minister of Agriculture Sudarat Keyuraphan. Since Thaksin first won the prime ministership in 2001, the judiciary, the palace, and the military have used five-year bans to keep pro-Thaksin politicians out of office, but the elites underestimated the staying power of Thaksin and of rural voters. Indeed, many politicians who were banned, like former minister Chaturon Chaiseng, were able to come back after five years and again lead Thaksinite parties and serve in ministerial positions. Expect the army and its selected constitution drafters (all of whom will be appointed and not elected) to find a way to keep the most important pro-Thaksin politicians out of politics for the rest of their lives. It used to be said that, in Thailand, everyone in politics always gets a chance to come back, no matter what they have done in the past…but that was then, and this is a different time in the kingdom. 3.  The judiciary and other institutions will be made even stronger. Since 2006, the judiciary and other bureaucratic institutions have been key weapons in the Bangkok elites and middle classes’ battle to maintain control of politics, but at times Thaksinite parties have managed to put some of their own allies in key judicial and bureaucratic posts. No more. The junta will leave a constitution and legislation that both makes the judiciary and other institutions stronger and insulates these institutions from any control at all by an elected prime minister. 4. The army’s constitution drafters will figure out a way to provide an amnesty for the 2014 coup-makers who, after all, broke the law by seizing power. Amnesty for the coup-makers? That’s one Thai tradition that isn’t going out of style.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. After a six month suspension, CIA resumes drone strikes in Pakistan. Two U.S. drones struck Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal region this week, killing several militants from Pakistani Taliban-allied factions, including the Haqqani network (which until recently held Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl hostage). The strikes came in the wake of the terrorist attack on the international airport in Karachi last Sunday; more than thirty people were killed including the militants. The Pakistani Taliban, or Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attack as retaliation for “the shelling and atrocities of the government.” Peace talks between the TTP and the Pakistani government have foundered and do not appear recoverable, and Pakistan is “mulling a new offensive of its own” against the militants. Although Pakistan has publicly condemned the U.S. drone strikes, anonymous government officials have admitted Islamabad gave the Americans “express approval” to carry out the strikes. 2. Japan, China exchange blame over jet encounter. For the second time since China established an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in November 2013—which overlaps with Japan’s own ADIZ above the East China Sea—a Chinese fighter jet and Japanese Self-Defense Force aircraft flew within just 30 meters (100 feet) of each other. The encounter followed another close call on May 24 between Japanese and Chinese jets, and like the earlier incident both sides were quick to blame the other. Japanese defense minister Itsunori Onodera said it was the Chinese fighter jet who flew abnormally close, calling the action “extremely dangerous as it could have led to an accident.” In contrast, China’s Defense Ministry released what it says is video footage of the incident, blaming the Japanese pilot for flying too close and for “playing up the so-called ‘Chinese military threat’.” Onodera responded by asserting that the video showed Japanese Self-Defense Forces aircraft scrambling in accordance with international rules, and urged Japan and China to develop a maritime communication mechanism “in order to prevent accidents from escalating to be a serious clash.” 3. Beijing releases white paper on Hong Kong policy, starts protests. Mere days after tens of thousands of Hong Kong residents held a vigil to commemorate the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Tiananmen Square military crackdown, Beijing released a white paper reminding Hong Kong that it has “comprehensive jurisdiction over all local administrative regions, including the HKSAR [Hong Kong Special Administrative Region].” The white paper, issued by the Chinese State Council, also stressed that some “wrong views” exist in Hong Kong about political reforms. The white paper also reaffirmed Beijing’s promise to allow universal suffrage and direct election for Hong Kong’s leader in 2017, but residents are concerned that Beijing will only allow “patriots” to run. Hong Kong has retained a special status within China since it was ceased to be a British colony in 1997, and retains its own political system and some autonomy under the “One Country, Two Systems” policy. The Democratic Party of Hong Kong canceled a meeting with the mainland liaison office over the paper. 4. Trial of Sewol ferry crew begins in Gwangju, South Korea. The trial of the captain and fourteen crew members of the capsized Sewol ferry began on Tuesday in Gwangju, South Korea. The captain and three crew members face a potential death sentence, while eleven other crew members are being tried for lesser charges of criminal negligence and maritime law violations. The defendants argued that they could not control the number of passengers on the boat, which was decided in advance of the trip. The incident has sparked national outrage, leading to the examination and criticism of the national government’s capacity to react to such situations; indeed, to many this is a trial of Korean politics as much as the crew members. The search for the ferry owner Yoo Byung-un also continues; on Wednesday around 6,000 police officers raided a church compound partly owned by Yoo. 5. Myanmar proposes criminalization of interfaith marriage; U.S. has serious concerns. Amid rising sectarian tension in Myanmar, the country’s parliament is reviewing laws aimed at protecting the majority Buddhist identity by regulating religious conversations and interfaith marriages, banning polygamy, and curbing population growth. The U.S. Department of State voiced its serious concerns about the impact upon religious freedom; and the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom further noted that the proposed laws risk stoking violence against Muslims and other religious minorities. After meeting with activists, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has said she will submit a report of recommendations to parliament. If the laws are passed, Washington will have to factor these developments into its evolving relationship with Myanmar. Bonus: Thai military junta requires telecom companies provide World Cup coverage for free. Following a military coup last month, the new ruling junta has ordered telecommunications officials to air the World Cup for free in Thailand as part of a “happiness campaign.” Whether the campaign takes citizens’ minds off of their newly lost democratic freedoms remains to be seen.

As the Thai coup settles into some kind of normality, the outlines of how this junta will act are becoming clear. As Leeds and Columbia University professor Duncan McCargo has written, this coup is proceeding far differently than other recent military takeovers in the kingdom. The timeline for returning power to the people through national elections is long and somewhat indeterminate, the military is cracking down on dissent much harder than it did in 2006 or even in the early post-coup 1990s, and the army seems intent on creating a cult of personality around it this time that has been absent for decades in Thailand. The military is reportedly launching Friday broadcasts to foster “happiness” in the kingdom, it is hauling in hundreds of journalists, academics, and activists for what are essentially old-school re-education sessions, and it even has ideas of trying to control and block social media outlets, including one of the most popular Thai social media outlets. The junta even plans to create its own, state-dominated and state-monitored social media network, which is supposed to replace Facebook and other Thai social media outlets. Good luck with that. Ultimately, any solution to Thailand’s ongoing crisis will come from Thais, and will come only when both the red and the yellow shirts are willing to compromise. The outlines of such a compromise have been evident to many Thais for years, though both Thaksin supporters and Thai elites have refused to wholeheartedly embrace such a compromise, which would include Thai elites conceding that they have to surrender some political power, and Thaksin supporters conceding that democracy must mean not only winning elections but also upholding the rule of law and basic democratic freedoms. The coup is unlikely to change minds on either side of Thailand’s polarized politics, and probably will make the divide worse; red shirt leaders will shut up for a year or two, as long as the army remains in control and has a preponderance of force, and once the army releases its control, the red shirt movement likely will revive. Most of the Thaksin supporters I have spoken with suggest that, though they may sign pledges to abstain from politics (pledges usually made under duress at military detention centers) they have no plan to actually adhere to these pledges over the long run. And if the military hands power back to the electorate and King Bhumibhol is still alive, Bangkok’s royalist elites will have the same worries about succession (a fine summary of these worries here) that they have now, worries partly responsible for the coup.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Thousands protest on the twenty-fifth anniversary of Tiananmen Square; mainland China ramps up security. Much of the world commemorated the twenty-fifth anniversary of the military crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989. Police presence shot up in Beijing and other major Chinese cities for the anniversary, and many websites, including LinkedIn, censored all mention of the incident. In Hong Kong, where freedom of speech is more protected, approximately 180,000 people converged in Victoria Park, lighting candles and chanting slogans. The White House officially commemorated the anniversary, leaving China "strongly dissatisfied." 2. Russia seeks to bolster ties with North Korea. Reacting to the West’s response to Ukraine, Russia has sought a rebalance of its own, a so-called “Putin’s Pivot.” On Thursday in Vladivostok, the two nations discussed granting Russian access to North Korean mines, and North Korea agreed to ease the process for Russians to get business visas. According to Russia’s Far East development minister, Alexander Galushka, the two countries hope to boost trade to US$1 billion by 2020. Delegates also discussed a proposed extension of the Trans-Siberian railway along with a pipeline through North Korea into South Korea. Moscow has also stepped up its high-level political exchanges with Pyongyang. Economic investment by Russia may be very significant for North Korea, which suffered a blow to its economy following withdrawal of Soviet support in the 1990s. 3. Opposition wins narrow victory in Korean local elections. On Wednesday, South Koreans headed to the polls to vote in local elections to fill almost 4,000 positions across the country. Seventeen races in particular were closely watched, as these awarded posts for the governors of Korea’s nine provinces as well as the mayors of eight major cities. The main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy captured nine of these seats, while the ruling Saenuri party came in just behind at eight seats. The close results came as a bit of surprise to some analysts, who predicted that public anger over the government’s handling of the April 16 Sewol ferry tragedy would cause the ruling party to lose by a wider margin. 4. Uproar in India over vicious rapes and murders. The brutal double rape and lynching of two cousins in Uttar Pradesh, India, has reignited outrage across the country over the treatment and safety of women. The two young girls had left their home in the night to use the bathroom (an open field) and never returned, leading some to demand the installation of proper toilets as the first step toward women’s safety. The girls were found hanging by their scarves from a mango tree; pictures have gone viral, attracting international attention. The case also highlights the disproportionate incidents of sexual violence committed against women of lower castes. Hundreds gathered outside the office of the state’s chief minister—who accused the media of hyping the story—in protest, kept back by force and water cannons. Three brothers and two police officers have been arrested for the crimes. 5. China launches battle against U.S. tech firms. Chinese state-owned newspapers called on Beijing to "severely punish the pawns" of the U.S. government--Apple, Google, and other U.S. technology firms--for monitoring China and stealing secrets. Op-eds in major Chinese newspapers said that U.S. companies threaten the cybersecurity of China, a message that has been repeated since Edward Snowden released secret information from the NSA. People’s Daily declared, "To resist the naked Internet hegemony, we will draw up international regulations, and strengthen technology safeguards, but we will also severely punish the pawns of the villain." The declaration comes after the U.S. Department of Justice indicted five Chinese military officials of cyber espionage. BONUS: Hunger Games salute a form of silent resistance to Thai coup. Life imitates art as the three-finger “District 12” salute from the Hollywood hit, “The Hunger Games,” is being used by protestors against the military coup in Thailand. With anti-coup activists encouraging others to raise three fingers, three times a day, the salute has become a symbol in calling for fundamental political rights. Protestors have given varying interpretations on the symbolism behind the salute, ranging from the French Revolution’s trinity of values to basic democratic rights. Military rulers are closely monitoring this new form of silence, however, promising to arrest those in large groups who ignore warnings to lower their arms.

What has gone wrong in Southeast Asia? Between the late 1980s and the late 2000s, many countries in the region were viewed by global democracy analysts and Southeast Asians themselves as leading examples of democratization in the developing world. By the late 2000s, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore all were ranked as “free” or “partly free” by the monitoring organization Freedom House, while Cambodia and, perhaps most surprisingly, Myanmar had both taken sizable steps toward democracy as well. Yet since then, Southeast Asia’s politics have been stuck in neutral or reverse. Asia Sentinel today has an excellent adaptation of my recent CFR working paper on the regression of democratic politics in Southeast Asia. The Asia Sentinel adaptation is available here.

This past week, the Thai military launched its second coup in a decade, destroying what was left of Thailand’s shaky democratic system. This coup is likely to last longer, and be much harsher than the coup in 2006; already, the Thai armed forces are censoring Thai media and putting journalists and politicians in detention or in jail. Thailand’s return to military rule was hardly fated to happen. Between the late 1980s and the late 2000s, many countries in Southeast Asia were viewed, by global democracy analysts and Southeast Asians themselves, as leading examples of democratization in the developing world. By the late 2000s, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore all were ranked as “free” or “partly free” by the monitoring organization Freedom House, while Cambodia and, perhaps most surprisingly, Myanmar had both taken sizable steps toward democracy as well. Yet since the late 2000s, Southeast Asia’s democratization has stalled and, in some of the region’s most economically and strategically important nations, gone into reverse. Over the past ten years, Thailand has undergone a rapid and severe regression from democracy and is now ruled by a junta. Malaysia’s democratic institutions and culture have regressed as well, with the long-ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition cracking down on dissent and trying to destroy what had been an emerging, and increasingly stable, two-party system. In Cambodia and Myanmar, hopes for dramatic democratic change have fizzled. Only the Philippines and Indonesia have stayed on track, but even in these two countries democratic consolidation is threatened by the persistence of graft, public distrust of democratic institutions, and continued meddling in politics by militaries. Southeast Asia’s rollback from democracy reflects a worrying global retrenchment toward anti-democratic political change. The implications of this regression from democracy are significant. On a human level, the regression from democracy means that, compared to a decade ago, more of the world’s people are living today under authoritarian or hybrid, semi-authoritarian regimes. People living under authoritarian rule are more likely to have shorter and less healthy lives, as shown by indicators of human development. An increasingly authoritarian and unstable Southeast Asia is also a poor partner for the United States. Southeast Asia contains U.S. treaty allies Thailand and the Philippines, increasingly critical U.S. partners Singapore and Vietnam, and potentially valuable strategic partners like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar. Southeast Asia has become one of the largest engines of global growth, and the United States and several Southeast Asian nations are attempting to complete the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would be the largest free trade area in history in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). Regression from democracy will endanger all of this cooperation. History shows that the United States works most effectively around the world with other democracies, as demonstrated in organizations like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The United States’ partnerships with the more democratic nations in Southeast Asia follow this trend—these relationships tend to be more stable than U.S. relationships with more brittle and autocratic Southeast Asian regimes. Stronger democratic governments, including those in Southeast Asia, also usually can deliver the kind of long-term economic liberalization critical to foreign investment, since these economic reforms are not just implemented by fiat. If this democratic rollback continues, it is likely to seriously endanger American security cooperation in East Asia, undermine the region’s growth and economic interdependence, and cause serious political unrest, even insurgencies, in many Southeast Asian nations. In my new working paper, I examine the severe regression from democracy now happening in Southeast Asia, the implications of this trend for the region and the United States, and some possible solutions to this democratic reversal. The working paper is available here.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Tumultuous times for Thailand. On Thursday, Thailand’s army chief general Prayuth Chan-ocha declared a military coup, just two days after martial law was instated. The coup d’etat is the latest development in six months of political instability and protests, and follows the May 7 dismissal of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. General Chan-ocha has assumed the role until new elections are held. Although Yingluck was elected by popular vote, the Thai establishment (defenders of the monarchy) has historically found ways to invalidate the ballot box when a rival comes into power. Violence between the pro-government “Red Shirts” and anti-government “Yellow Shirts,” with the military now in the mix, is a looming possibility. 2. Terrorist attack kills thirty-one in Urumqi. Attackers in two SUV’s plowed through a crowded market in the capital city of Xinjiang province and set off a series of explosions, killing dozens of people and wounding more than ninety. The assault was the deadliest in a series of recent attacks that have been linked to violent Islamic extremists in Xinjiang, and highlighted the growing challenge for the Chinese government as it attempts to better relations with the region. Xinjiang is home to China’s ethnic Uighurs, a predominantly Muslim minority whose members are increasingly unhappy with the policies of the central government. Speaking after the attack, Chinese president Xi Jinping “pledged to severely punish terrorists and spare no efforts in maintaining stability.” 3. U.S. Department of Justice indicts five Chinese military officers on charges of cyber espionage. On Monday, U.S. attorney general Eric Holder announced that members of the Chinese military have engaged in cyber economic espionage against six major U.S. steel businesses and organizations. A grand jury in Pennsylvania, where all of the victims are located, returned a thirty-one-count indictment against the five Chinese officers. However, the recent indictment has many—especially in China—crying foul, given Edward Snowden’s leaks about the extent of the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA)’s hacking abilities, including the revelation that it has hacked into Chinese technology company Huawei and Brazilian energy company Petrobras. The United States argues that there is a distinction between hacking for national security purposes and hacking for economic gain, an assertion that Beijing disagrees with. The indictment has escalated tensions between the U.S. and China on cybersecurity, and Chinese leaders suspended high-level U.S.-China summits to discuss cyber espionage as a result. 4. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin pivots east. China and Russia signed a $400 billion gas deal this week, an “epochal event” after almost a decade of negotiations. During Mr. Putin’s visit to Shanghai, both sides agreed that Russia’s state oil giant Gazprom will send thirty-eight billion cubic meters of natural gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) each year between 2018 and 2048. Some energy experts suggest that there may not be enough transportable gas ready to pipe out of eastern Russia until 2020; others are concerned that pipeline networks will not be built in time. These challenges aside, the deal grants Chinese access to crucial energy supply and enables Beijing to move away from its dependence on coal. In addition to bilateral agreements aimed at Russian and Chinese financial sectors, the Gazprom-CNPC deal could pave the way for even more natural gas export deals. 5. Continued fallout from Sewol sinking in South Korea. The aftermath of the Sewol ferry incident in South Korea continues, as this week President Park Geun-hye announced plans to disband the national coast guard for failing to do enough to save the ferry’s passengers. The plans, which would distribute the coast guard’s duties to the national police or to a new agency, must be approved by the National Assembly. Meanwhile, the Incheon District court issued an arrest warrant for Yoo Byung-eon, the owner of the vessel, on charges of alleged business malpractices. The court believes Yoo has fled and has issued warrants for his two sons as well. Bonus: China continues panda diplomacy initiatives. In the newest round of panda diplomacy, the Chinese government has sent two giant pandas on a diplomatic mission to Malaysia. After a delay of nearly a month because of tensions surrounding the missing MH370 flight, pandas Feng Yi and Fu Wa arrived in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday. The pandas are on a ten-year loan from the Chinese government and will be housed at Zoo Negara.

So, the Thai military has now made real what, in effect, it had already done earlier this week—launched a coup and taken over the powers of government. The armed forces now have posted troops around Bangkok, dispatched ministers from the previous civilian government, abrogated the standing constitution (except for a few articles) and passed harsh new censorship decrees as part of their martial law plan. Most likely, the leaders of the Thai army shortly will appoint a caretaker government, which will be made up of mostly conservative, royalist political figures. Unsurprisingly, the anti-government PDRC protestors who had been demonstrating for months to evict the elected government of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and to put democracy on hold now are jubilant. The PDRC protestors have seemingly gotten exactly what they wanted—Yingluck is gone, the Puea Thai party is in disarray, and democracy has been put on hold. Whatever appointed government is put into place by the military likely will launch reforms that, in theory, could help cleanse Thailand’s political system of graft and vote buying but that, in reality, will be designed to try to ensure the Shinawatras and their political base are disempowered once and for all. This will not be an easy task; in fact, it is probably impossible. The supporters of Puea Thai include both the majority of Thais and a small, hardened minority of activists who will be willing to fight the Thai military in Bangkok or in upcountry towns where these activists have more local support and more ability to launch guerilla attacks. Several Thai military officers told me that, indeed, they expect significant violent conflict in Bangkok with red shirt activists in the next two weeks, and that this conflict could be worse than the clashes in 2010 that burnt down parts of Bangkok and led to at least ninety deaths. Some senior army officers also do not trust that junior officers will follow through on commands to crack down on red shirts, particularly outside of Bangkok, where the red shirts are popular and some army officers have strong pro-red sympathies. More broadly, any reforms instituted by an appointed government will, eventually, have to lead Thailand back to democratic politics, unless conservative Bangkok elites hope that they can forestall electoral democracy forever, which is unlikely. A previous round of reforms following the 2006 coup were expected to lessen the influence of the Shinawatra family in politics and reduce the power of the rural poor, who make up the majority of Thais and thus can dominate an election if they support one party. Even after those post-2006 reforms, rural-supported parties continued to win parliamentary elections, as they had since 2001, when Thaksin was first prime minister. The rural poor have been empowered electorally, and they just are not going to give up this vote. And, it will be nearly impossible to craft “reforms” that are real and yet also disenfranchise most voters. The most likely near-term scenario is indeed major violence in Bangkok and, perhaps, in other parts of the country. After assuring American diplomats that it would not launch a coup, should the Thai military expect that the United States, its closest partner, will take the coup lightly, as it did after the 2006 Thai coup?

Last night U.S. time the Thai military took control of the country’s broadcast networks and announced it was declaring martial law across the country, effectively putting the army in charge of all of Thailand, even though many provinces had been unaffected by the ongoing political strife in Bangkok. Whether or not the military has the legal basis to declare martial law remains unclear; the current Thai constitution seems to suggest that only the government—which means presumably the elected prime minister and cabinet—can declare martial law. The older constitution referred to by the military as its justification for intervening yesterday also states that a martial law order only can be revoked by a royal decree. While declaring martial law, army commander Prayuth Chan-ocha also notably stated that this intervention was not a coup, and that Thai people should go about their business as usual. One Thai army official told the Associated Press, “This is definitely not a coup. This is only to provide safety to the people and the people can still carry on their lives as normal." Still, following Prayuth’s announcement the anti-government PDRC protestors cancelled planned demonstrations, and the pro-government/red shirt demonstrators and leaders who were planning to mass in Bangkok were notably more cautious about their plans after Prayuth’s announcement. Whatever Prayuth says, the implication of the military intervention is that the army has in effect staged a coup, even if it does not want to admit it has done so. (After all, the 2006 coup did not go so well for the military and its appointed government.) If Thai people are now afraid to go about the daily activities of political participation, which include demonstrating, then normal politics have been upended, suggesting a coup has occurred.  Indeed, the martial law order leaves open the possibility that the military could impose severe punishments for ordinary political activity. If the military is now taking control of not only security policy but many more aspects of policy-making, throughout the country, then normal politics have been suspended. If the caretaker government—which was by constitutional rights supposed to be overseeing Thailand until the next election—has been sidelined from policy-making, then normal politics have been suspended. Indeed, General Prayuth and the army apparently took this step without consulting the caretaker government, and the martial law order sidelines requires many ministries and other agencies to now report to the military’s new peacekeeping command center. The Obama administration already has amassed an unfortunate history of not calling coups coups (see: Egypt), and of trying to play down military interventions in foreign countries. The U.S. embassy in Bangkok has, to this point, played a vital and even-handed role in helping mediate Thailand’s political crisis. The embassy and key actors in the U.S. government who have close ties to the Thai military should declare that this announcement does mean a coup has occurred, unless the Thai army makes clear that it will return policy-making to the hands of civilians. Civilians could then oversee martial law, at least for a period of time, but if the army is to oversee civilians, then it is a coup and should be called a coup—and the penalties for a coup should be imposed.

Since Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was removed from office last week by the Constitutional Court, already-high tensions in Thailand have only ratcheted up. The anti-government protestors rallied in Bangkok this past weekend. They have called their protests the final push to remove the government and install a non-elected prime minister who will, presumably, try to roll back the power of Thailand’s rural voters and further empower unelected Thai institutions. Although the protestors have taken heart from the selection of the new senate leader, who is far more favorably inclined to the protest movement than the government’s candidate for senate speaker, the demonstrators still have not won their battle. As I noted last week, the Constitutional Court did not completely come down on the side of the demonstrators, which would have meant removing the entire cabinet and essentially destroying the Puea Thai leadership. In addition, the protestors have not yet won the army leadership completely to their side; the army has preferred to let police handle the protests, and even though army commander Prayuth Chan-ocha has clear royalist tendencies, he has continued obfuscating his views on the political standoff. (General Prayuth surely remembers how terribly the army-installed government managed Thailand in 2006-2007 and how poorly that management looked for the military’s image.) In addition, repeated attempts by protest leaders to publicly get key palace go-betweens to support the demonstrations and act on behalf of the demonstrators have mostly fizzled. However, since the Constitutional Court’s decision there seems to be a dangerous creep—among many Thai and foreign opinion leaders—toward greater acceptance that a coup d’etat now is the only way to break the political deadlock. For example, in conversations with a wide range of middle class Puea Thai supporters, many have become increasingly resigned to the idea that the army eventually will intervene, although core red shirt supporters and leaders are not similarly resigned and probably would fight a coup. Some foreign media outlets and some foreign Thai experts appear similarly resigned. A recent editorial in the New York Times, though calling the Court’s decision “A Coup by Another Name,” also suggested that there are few options left in Thailand other than a royal or military intervention—or that these interventions in the past were somehow helpful to Thailand’s political system. Although an army intervention may indeed be coming, it is not the only way out; there are other possibilities. These would include a compromise deal brokered between Puea Thai leaders and Democrat Party leaders—a deal that effectively sidelines the street demonstrators by putting into place a short-term caretaker government dedicated to reform, as well as an election date far sooner than two years from now, the timeline proposed by Democrat Party leaders. Such a compromise also, of course, would require both the Democrats and Puea Thai to agree to participate in such elections. Foreign countries should not accept that a military intervention is the only way out in Thailand now, even if it seems somewhat more likely than it did earlier this year. Grudgingly accepting the idea of a coup will make the event more likely to occur, and also will give the Thai army the notion that a coup will go pretty much unpunished by the world, as occurred after the 2006 putsch.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Thai prime minister removed from office, faces impeachment. Thailand’s constitutional court voted to remove Yingluck Shinawatra from office for abuse of power for illegally transferring a civil servant to another post. The court also removed the nine ministers that were in her cabinet at the time. Yingluck now faces impeachment by the Thai senate, in conjunction with alleged connection to a farm subsidy program. Deputy Prime Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan was named interim prime minister of the caretaker government, a choice that satisfied neither supporters nor the opponents of Yingluck and the ruling Puea Thai Party. Protestors, both anti-government and pro-government, continue to be active following Yingluck’s removal, and there appears to be no clear way forward. Thailand’s democracy has faced a rocky path the past few months, and some fear that elections planned for late July will be postponed. 2. Vietnam, Philippines confront China in South China Sea. State-owned oil giant China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) set up an oil rig 120 nautical miles off the coast of Vietnam in the South China Sea. In response, Vietnam has reportedly deployed thirty-five ships to the surrounding seas, while China now has as many as eighty. The vessels’ close proximity has resulted in a number of incidents, including the use of water cannons and ship-to-ship collisions. Both Beijing and Hanoi declared their sovereignty of the contested area, and neither side has shown any sign of backing down. Meanwhile, the Philippines seized a Chinese boat laden with hundreds of endangered turtles and detained its crew in contested waters. A Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman urged the Philippine government to “stop taking further provocative actions.” 3. Communal violence breaks out amid India’s national election. In the western area of the state of Assam, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland, an ethnic Bodo militant group, opened fire on Muslim residents of two remote villages in the Bodoland Territorial Autonomous District, killing around forty people and burning hundreds of homes. Though India’s national elections have fanned the flames, tension between Bodos (who comprise 30 percent of the region’s population) and non-Bodos (including other tribes, Bengali-speaking Hindus and Muslims, and other ethnic groups) is not a new phenomenon. Many observers have pointed to the polarization of voters along ethnic and religious lines as the trigger for the violence. 4. Alibaba files IPO in the United States. Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce company similar to eBay, filed what could become the biggest-ever initial public offering (IPO) in the United States. Experts say that the valuation of the firm could exceed $150 billion. The company, founded by Hangzhou native Jack Ma, began as a website that connected small manufacturers with commercial buyers overseas, but quickly expanded to include options to allow consumers to sell to one another and a business-to-consumer website. Last year, the company’s sales exceeded $5.7 billion; measured by the value of goods sold, Alibaba is bigger than eBay and Amazon combined. Some China watchers warn that investing in Alibaba means taking on political risks: strict Chinese controls limit foreign investment, require online censorship, and also make it difficult for both foreign and domestic companies to gain too much power. 5. Norway turns away Dalai Lama after pressure from China. Tibet’s spiritual leader in exile, the Dalai Lama, was in Norway this week to commemorate the Nobel peace prize he received twenty-five years ago. Amidst warnings from Beijing, the Norwegian government decided against meetings between the Dalai Lama and top politicians, a decision aimed at appeasing Beijing after trade and political links were suspended in 2010 when Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo won the Nobel prize. The Chinese Foreign Ministry approved of the decision, and the Dalai Lama was not disappointed and was content to meet with the Norwegian public instead. A trend of avoiding the Tibetan spiritual leader may continue in countries with deep trade ties to Beijing, as studies suggest meeting with the Dalai Lama can carry heavy economic costs. Bonus: Japanese fans think American Godzilla is “too fat.” As American audiences look forward to the May 16 premiere of the new Godzilla reboot, which stars Bryan Cranston of Breaking Bad fame, fans in Japan have expressed annoyance at how “massive” the monster appears in trailers. Japanese fans criticized the new Godzilla as much heftier than his 1954 onscreen debut, joking online that Americans had “super-sized” Godzilla and calling it names such as “calorie monster,” “marshmallow Godzilla,” and “Godzilla deluxe.” Not all responses were negative, however. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Kouhei Nomura, author of an encyclopedia on the Godzilla films, said the size gave Godzilla “a more dignified presence.” As Nomura eloquently summed up, “being bigger is a non-issue when it comes to Godzilla.”

Yesterday Thai time, Thailand’s Constitutional Court, the country’s highest court, ruled that caretaker prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra had abused her power and should be removed from office, along with nine other ministers in her cabinet. The charges were related to the removal from his position of a former civil servant three years ago. The New York Times has a summary of the situation here. There is no real precedent for the court’s decision to remove Yingluck and the other ministers, and no real textual basis for the decision in Thailand’s constitution. But the Constitutional Court has in recent years shown time and again that it needs no precedent or constitutional basis, in its mind, to make decisions. The court also repeatedly has demonstrated that it comes down firmly on the side of the anti-government protestors in Bangkok, and generally on the side of the conservative, royalist Bangkok elites, who have become increasingly suspicious of and even opposed to democracy in Thailand. Yet this verdict was not a total win for the protestors and royalist elites; the court may want to hedge its bets, since it knows that Yingluck, her brother Thaksin Shinawatra, and their supporters, who have elected pro-Thaksin governments for over a decade, comprise a powerful bloc in Thailand. The court could have thrown out Yingluck’s whole cabinet rather than just the caretaker prime minister and nine other ministers. There would have been no precedent or constitutional basis for this decision, either, but it was widely predicted before the verdict by many Thai commentators. This verdict would have possibly paved the way for Thailand’s senate to appoint a new caretaker prime minister, one who might not have been a Shinawatra ally. Instead, the court left some ministers in place. This meant the caretaker government was allowed to appoint a new caretaker prime minister to replace Yingluck, until parliamentary elections are held again. (Parliamentary elections held in February failed, as the opposition Democrat Party boycotted and demonstrators blocked many polling booths.) The caretaker government thus appointed as prime minister Deputy Prime Minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan, another close ally of Yingluck and her brother Thaksin; the new prime minister formerly served as a senior executive in a Shinawatra family company. As a result, neither Thaksin supporters nor the conservative opponents of Thaksin, Yingluck, and the Puea Thai party will be fully satisfied by the court’s decision. Caretaker prime minister Yingluck’s party has referred to the court’s decision as a judicial “coup d’etat” but opponents of the government also are not openly celebrating, and already are condemning the choice of the next prime minister. So, the political temperature will increase in Bangkok. The caretaker government likely will push ahead for new parliamentary elections in July, and both the street demonstrators and the opposition Democrat Party likely will push for a boycott of these elections. The demonstrators already have announced that they will hold another massive rally designed to bring down the government later this week. Pro-government demonstrators have responded by declaring that the decision means total war in Thailand. Worse, the case further undermines Thailand’s political institutions, adding to the poisonous political climate in the kingdom and pushing the country further down the road toward violence and a total democratic meltdown. As I have previously noted in my chapter on Thailand in the CFR book Pathways to Freedom: Political and Economic Lessons from Democratic Transitions, over the past decade, as Thailand’s democracy has regressed, the country’s political institutions have become increasingly polarized and, as a result, untrusted by the majority of Thais. Even the king, formerly seen as above politics and able to mediate political disputes, has lost the trust of many Thais. As I wrote in that chapter:  Both Thaksin and the royalist elite [have] weakened the rule of law. Thaksin undermined new institutions created by the constitution, pressured some judges and forced out others, and packed parliament’s upper house with cronies. Instead of trying Thaksin’s alleged crimes in court or changing the law, his opponents in the elite and middle classes fought him through street protests and other extra-constitutional means.  Now, the increasingly weak rule of law in Thailand has collapsed entirely.

Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, Thailand’s political situation does. Over the past week, Thai opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva offered what he had, in advance, touted as a reconciliation and reform plan. He had come up with a plan, he promised, that would bridge Thailand’s political divide, bring the Democrat Party back to contesting elections, and possibly end the paralyzing street protests that now have gone on for seven months. His reform plan would, he said, stop any further loss of life in Bangkok, where demonstrators have frequently clashed with police and counter-demonstrators. Any hope is sorely needed: The body count is rising, Thailand is becoming more divided daily, and the Thai caretaker government has barely functioned since the winter. (Parliamentary elections held this past February were declared invalid and anti-government protestors obstructed many pooling booths and prevented people from voting; so, the caretaker government continues on.) Not surprisingly, given his history of showy but meaningless politics, Abhisit’s promise proved empty. The “reform” plan was just another proposal designed to stall elections in Thailand, or maybe even put them on hold forever, belying the name of the so-called Democrat Party that Abhisit heads. If actually enacted, Abhisit’s nine-point reform plan likely would mean two years before another election was called, allowing Thailand to slip back into rule by unelected prime ministers and senior-level bureaucrats and the military and palace, the Democrats’ long-time allies. This neutralization of elected democracy is basically what Bangkok street demonstrators have been calling for since November. As analysts like Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University have noted, if an election were called and the Democrat Party participated rather than boycotting and abetting the obstruction of polling, the Democrat Party actually would have a real opportunity to appeal to voters and pick up seats from Yingluck’s Puea Thai. Puea Thai has alienated many Thais with ineffective economic policies, alleged vast corruption, and its overemphasis on the Shinawatra family in leadership positions. Yet the Democrat Party refuses to engage in the normal business of fighting for elections. Unsurprisingly, Thai caretaker prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her government just rejected Abhisit’s plan immediately. Abhisit’s nine-part reform plan does contain some positive points. The plan includes vague proposals for making Thai elections more transparent on polling day, for instance. But Abhisit’s plan would allow the leaders of the street demonstrations and their allies, rather than the majority of Thais, to essentially decide on the interim government put into place while these reforms are being enacted. And the proposal’s plan to delay elections for so long outweigh any positive ideas contained in it, since the delay would allow democracy to flounder and re-strengthen Thailand’s deep state—the bureaucracy, the palace, the military. This reform would be a step back, not forward.

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Michelle Obama visits China. U.S. first lady Michelle Obama arrived in Beijing on Thursday and will spend six days in China. Accompanied by her mother and two daughters, Obama toured Beijing with Peng Liyuan, wife of Chinese president Xi Jinping. Obama will stay away from politicized topics such as human rights, and instead promote cultural and educational exchanges, particularly for young people. Currently, the number of Chinese studying in the United States outnumber Americans studying in China by at least ten to one. The Obama administration must certainly hope that the first lady’s efforts in the Middle Kingdom are as successful as her “Let’s Move” campaign to inspire American youth to exercise more. 2. Japan and North Korea agree to restart formal talks. On Thursday, Japanese and North Korean officials agreed in a meeting in Shenyang, China, to restart stalled bilateral talks between the two countries on a wide variety of issues including North Korea’s weapons program as well as the past abduction of Japanese citizens by Pyongyang. The two countries’ Red Cross societies also met to discuss the abduction issue, a sticking point in bilateral discussions for decades. Formal talks between Tokyo and Pyongyang ended in December 2012 after North Korea tested  a long-range missile over Japan. 3. Court annuls Thailand’s February election. The country’s Constitutional Court voided last month’s general election on Friday, a decision that will only deepen Thailand’s political crisis. Thailand’s prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra called the February 2 elections after months of demonstrations against her government; in turn, protestors prevented prospective officeholders from registering and voters from registering and casting ballots. Because of the protests, voting could not be conducted on the same day across the country, as Thailand’s constitution demands. The court’s ruling puts further pressure on the embattled Shinawatra administration, which now rules without a full government and with Yingluck facing impeachment over a failed rice subsidy scheme. The court’s secretary-general stated that a new general election must be held, though there is no indication as to when this might happen. 4. The search for Malaysia Airlines flight 370 continues, now off the coast of Australia. Satellite imagery detected a pair of floating objects off the southwest coast of Australia that could be from the Malaysian Airlines flight that disappeared on March 8, but the debris has not yet been recovered. Malaysian police have also focused their search on the plan’s pilot; they found that information was deleted from the flight simulator he used in his home and called in the U.S. FBI to help in the investigation. So far there is no evidence that links the pilot or copilot to any terrorist groups or any evidence of suicidal tendencies. Malaysian and U.S. officials believe that the plane was deliberately diverted off course, but still cannot explain why or to where. Several countries, especially China, have criticized Malaysia’s handling of the investigation, claiming it should be more willing to share intelligence. Chinese relatives of missing passengers protested at a media conference on Wednesday, demanding more information and threatening a hunger strike. 5. Sri Lanka arrests human rights activists under anti-terrorism law. Three prominent human rights activists were arrested in Colombo on “charges of creating communal disharmony and inciting racial hatred.” Ruki Fernando, Reverend Praveen Mahesan, and Jeyakumari Balendran were released after a forty-eight hour detention in the Terrorist Investigation Division under court orders prohibiting them from speaking to the media. The arrests occurred days before a crucial UN Human Rights Council vote on a possible investigation into war crimes committed during the Sri Lankan civil war. Bonus: “Smog insurance” for sale in China. China’s Ping An Insurance Group announced a new insurance plan this week. By paying a premium of 100 yuan, or $16, purchasers of the insurance in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Xi’an, Harbin, and Chengdu can now insure themselves against air pollution. According to a report from Xinhua, those insured will receive medical examinations when the air quality index (AQI) hits more than 300 for five consecutive days and $240 in compensation if they are hospitalized by smog. As Beijing begins its “war on pollution,” the insurance product represents an attempt to profit off the country’s dirty skies.