Thailand

The State Department’s annual Trafficking in Persons (TIP) Report likely will be released in June. Despite warranting a lower rating, Thailand has barely escaped being downgraded to Tier 3, the lowest possible rating in the report, for five years now. Although Thailand almost certainly has deserved to be put in the lowest tier, because of the massive amount of human trafficking routed through Thailand and the complicity of Thai government officials. Thailand has been exempted from the downgrade for years because of close ties between the United States and the kingdom, including cooperation on many other issues. Washington basically did not want to offend Thailand’s government by lumping it in at the bottom of the report, in Tier 3, alongside countries like Congo (DRC), Mauritania, and Sudan. Countries in Tier 3 are states “whose governments do not fully comply with the minimum standards [on combating trafficking in persons] and are not making significant efforts to do so,” according to the definition provided by the TIP report. It is now becoming harder and harder for even strong advocates of the U.S.-Thai relationship to ignore mounting evidence that Thailand deserves to be dropped into Tier 3. Reports this winter revealed that Thai immigration officials, naval troops, and other authorities have collaborated to dump Rohingya fleeing Myanmar into trafficking networks.  The Royal Thai Navy’s response? When reporters from a local Phuket-based news outlet ran another story about the Thai military’s compliance in human trafficking, a piece that utilized some of Reuters’ reporting, the military sued the reporters. But the Thai authorities do not appear to be doing anything more substantial than trying to silence critics of trafficking in the kingdom. Now, the Environmental Justice Foundation, a London-based nonprofit, has released a detailed, scathing report  chronicling the use of slavery in Thailand’s fishing and seafood industry. It is hardly the first such report to examine slavery in the Thai fishing industry, but it is one of the most compelling. It also suggests that despite promises to crack down on trafficking, the Thai government, which is consumed by Thailand’s domestic political struggles, had made little serious effort to do so.  It is time for the U.S. State Department to recognize the grim reality of trafficking in the kingdom.

Clashes in Thailand between anti-government protestors and security forces have intensified. This past weekend, unidentified gunmen sprayed bullets at anti-government protestors in eastern Thailand and killed a five-year-old girl, and someone apparently launched two grenade attacks in Bangkok. Since this current round of demonstrations started last November, 21 people have been killed and hundreds injured in Thailand. The country has basically functioned without an effective government now for months, the once-teflon economy is sputtering, and Thais are preparing for the violence to get worse. Although Thailand’s cycle of political instability seems to have gone on forever—the genesis of the unrest dates back roughly a decade—this current round of chaos in Bangkok is likely to end soon. None of the cycles of protest and counter-protest have ended in solutions that actually resolved Thailand’s class and regional divides; instead the protests resulted in temporary fixes that only emboldened the other side to fight harder. Worse, none of the cycles of protest during the past decade have ended without serious violence. To read more on my predictions for how this round of violence will end, read here.  

For months now, protesters have gathered in the capitals of many developing nations—Turkey, Ukraine, Thailand, Venezuela, Malaysia, and Cambodia, among others—in demonstrations united by some key features. In nearly all of these places, protesters are pushing to oust presidents or prime ministers they claim are venal, authoritarian, and unresponsive to popular opinion. Nearly all of these governments, no matter how corrupt, brutal, and autocratic, actually won elections in relatively free polls. And in nearly all of these countries the vast majority of demonstrators hail from cosmopolitan areas: Kiev, Bangkok, Caracas, Istanbul, and other cities. The streets seem to be filled with very people one might expect to support democracy rather than put more nails in its coffin. Why are these demonstrations exploding now, when protesters in places like Thailand have been organizing against their governments for months if not years? For one, these governments have shored up their backing from important international players, which may make them feel more secure in cracking down. In Ukraine’s case, the government has been bolstered by billions in assistance from Russia. In Thailand and Malaysia, the governments have benefited from the tacit support of the United States, which has expressed support for the results of democratic processes. And hard-liners in the police in some of these nations have for weeks called for tougher tactics. In Thailand, for example, where the government has until now mostly let protesters take over and shut down ministries, businesses, and intersections, mid-level police officers have pushed senior commanders to take more aggressive measures—and those measures are now being carried out. Protesters also have become more indebted to hard-liners in their camps and thus more willing to use violence. In Ukraine, as the number of protesters has dwindled somewhat over the past two months, the rump group included the hardest-core elements willing to wait out a brutal winter. In Thailand, the size of the demonstrations has fallen by more than half since early January, but the remaining protesters apparently include shadowy instigators armed with assault rifles concealed in sacks and grenades. Some hard-line Thai anti-government activists also seem to believe that if they can provoke major bloodshed in Bangkok, the military will be forced to step in and carry out yet another in Thailand’s long history of coups. To read more of my analysis of why these protests are coming to a head this week, read the whole article here.  

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Pakistan begins official peace talks with the Taliban. Pakistani government officials and Taliban representatives began formal talks on Thursday. The government delegation has requested an immediate cease-fire and that the talks to be limited to areas where the insurgency is strongest. The Taliban negotiators initially agreed to work within the framework of Pakistan’s constitution. However, one of the Taliban’s negotiators pulled out on Friday because he wanted the agenda included an imposition of Islamic law. Both sides described the talks as “cordial and friendly,” though many experts remain skeptical that they will bear fruit. By request of the Pakistani government during the peace talks, the Obama administration sharply curtailed drone strikes in Pakistan . 2. Thai elections show low confidence in ruling party; rice farmers join in protests against government. Only 47 percent of eligible voters showed up at polls in Thailand’s election on Sunday, compared to 75 percent in 2011, due to a boycott by the opposition Democrat Party and disruptive anti-government protests. Protesters shut down intersections across the country, and some gunmen even shot at would-be voters. A petition introduced by the opposition to nullify the election was rejected Friday on procedural grounds, though a related petition remains pending. In a new twist, many rice farmers have joined protests because they were not given the money they were promised in the government’s populist rice-purchase scheme, which promised farmers that the government would buy rice at above-market rates to boost rural incomes. 3. North Korea threatens to cancel family reunions over U.S.-South Korean military drills. The threat to cancel the family reunions, framed as a sincere effort by Seoul to warm North-South relations, comes only days after Pyongyang agreed to Seoul’s proposal to hold reunions in a resort in North Korea. On Thursday, a spokesperson for the North Korean National Defense Commission stated that the drills, which occur regularly and that Washington and Seoul contend are for defensive purposes, constitute a “reckless act of war.” “It does not make sense to carry out the reunion of families, who were separated due to the War, during a dangerous nuclear war practice,” said the North Korean spokesperson. South Korean Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae, urged Pyongyang to stick to its commitment. North Korea canceled scheduled reunions in September 2013. Family meetings have not occurred since 2010. 4. Indonesia reports slowest economic growth in four years. Indonesia’s economy expanded by only 5.78 percent in 2013, slowing for the third consecutive year. Finance Minister M. Chatib Basri and other government officials have said that sluggish growth is intentional; economic expansion is being sacrificed to decrease the $9.9 billion current account deficit and ensure sustainable long-term economic growth. With companies fearing to invest in Indonesia prior to a 2014 election, the country’s economy is expected to grapple with weaker growth in the coming years; the International Monetary Fund is projecting growth between 5 percent and 5.5 percent until 2015. 5. Philippines’ Aquino likens China’s claims in South China Sea to Hitler’s in Sudetenland. Speaking with the New York Times this week, President Benigno Aquino III of the Philippines called on the world to do more to help Manila resist China’s assertive maritime claims in the South China Sea. He stated, “At what point do you say, ‘Enough is enough’? Well, the world has to say it—remember that the Sudetenland was given in an attempt to appease Hitler to prevent World War II.” Naturally, Beijing was not pleased that its leadership had been likened to that of Nazi Germany; Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei stated that “Such a comparison is ridiculously inconceivable and unreasonable. The Chinese side is shocked and dissatisfied.” A Xinhua report was less diplomatic, calling President Aquino “an amateurish politician who was ignorant both of history and reality.” Bonus: Japan’s deaf composer is neither deaf nor a composer. Mamoru Samuragochi, nicknamed Japan’s "Beethoven," was exposed by his ghostwriter, composer Takashi Niigaki, as being neither deaf nor the composer of his own music. Mr. Samuragochi admitted that someone else had written his most famous works, including the themes to video games such as Resident Evil and Onimusha and a sonatina for Japanese Olympic figure skater Daisuke Takahashi.

Despite protesters blocking voting in southern provinces and many parts of Bangkok, and despite several serious incidents of violence in Bangkok, including a gunfight in the streets, the Sunday election actually was somewhat more peaceful than expected, and turnout slightly higher than expected. The relatively high turnout, the lack of widespread violence that protest leaders surely hoped would erupt, and the fact that heads of the armed forces quietly voted, suggests that overall, Sunday was a net loss for the anti-government PDRC, though hardly a sign that the Thai government is now in the clear. The Bangkok Post has a fine summary here. An important point made in this article is that, with the relatively high turnout and with the voters surely re-electing the government, the PDRC will now have to push to overturn a new electoral mandate, which will make the protesters look even more anti-democratic than they already do. This is surely saying something, but I agree that pushing to overturn a government that is basically re-elected will be harder; though I still think that the PDRC and Thailand’s elite institutions stand a good chance of fatally weakening Puea Thai. In addition, the fact that the government was able to keep open around 85 to 90 percent of polling stations, also a higher figure than was expected, will give the election more power, and the victors greater legitimacy. Though PDRC leaders have quietly—and not so quietly—pushed the military to openly take sides against the government, and though I believe senior military leaders would like to see the back of Puea Thai, the voting by armed forces leaders suggests that the military is too divided to take a stronger stance against the government, which is a positive sign for Thailand’s democracy.

For months now, even as Thailand’s political crisis has escalated from street protests into daily violence, the disintegration of state institutions, and the threat of a coup, most Thai businesspeople, foreign investors, and analysts of the Thai economy have maintained a relatively positive outlook for the Thai economy this year and next. After all, as several long-time investors in Thailand have told me, the country’s economy has over decades proven extraordinarily resilient, surviving nineteen coups and attempted coups, natural disasters, the Indochina wars, and many Bangkok street protests that ended in bloodshed. Most recently, after the military fired on protestors in Bangkok in 2010, killing at least ninety people, and demonstrators burnt several areas of the central business district, the Thai economy rebounded quickly. It rebounded again after massive flooding the following year, with even many electronics manufacturers—particularly makers of disk drives and other computer parts—immediately returning to the country after their plants were submerged and many of their models lost. Given this history, many observers argue, the current turmoil will not appreciably slow Thailand’s economy, the second-largest in Southeast Asia. The Thailand Development Research Institute, probably the foremost economic analysis and forecasting outfit in Thailand, predicts that the turmoil will weaken growth in the first quarter of 2014, but that growth likely will then pick up again later in the year. Why has Thailand demonstrated such resiliency in the past? The country has a long history of liberal policies toward foreign investment, and of macroeconomic stability. Investors have enormous sunk costs in Thailand, particularly Japanese and Western investors with auto plants and other manufacturing operations in Bangkok and the eastern seaboard. Winding down these operations would require taking enormous losses and abandoning decades of training skilled workers like auto parts technicians. Such sunk costs make it likelier that these investors will stick out any turmoil. Finally, many investors and tourists simply like Thailand, because of the country’s naturally pleasant weather and culture and food, and its location smack in the center of the region. But that resiliency is not going to last forever. Granted, there is going to be no mass exodus of investors from Thailand now, or probably at any time, no run for the door of the kind one might imagine when a country’s politics turn violent. The country’s historic strengths, and the positive image of Thailand among investors prevent Thailand’s economy from melting down completely, as appears to be happening in Ukraine right now. The years of political turmoil, which now dates back to the mid-2000s, are instead having a corrosive effect on Thailand’s economy, more like the drip, drip, drip of a slightly leaky faucet that ultimately busts your water bill than the gusher of a pipe that breaks open and pours water everywhere. The corrosion can be seen not just in the underperformance of the economy in the beginning of 2014, but in the economy’s long-term underperformance compared to its potential. The corrosion can be seen not by investors pulling up stakes and leaving in a horde but rather in the decisions of new investors to look elsewhere, when in the past they would have made Thailand their first choice for new investments in all types of low-end to high-end manufacturing. How has the political turmoil corroded growth? For one, the largest Thai companies have in many ways become involved in the political turmoil, taking sides or struggling to maintain their share of the Thai market; Thailand’s biggest domestic firms have, partly as a result, been slow to take advantage of the economic and political opening next door in Myanmar, where Thai firms should have been poised to dominate an economy poised for enormous growth. In addition, Thai politicians’ focus on staying in power, and on destroying their opponents, has distracted from their focus on critical priorities for Thailand’s long-term competitiveness, including upgrading the quality of the workforce, making it easier for Thai entrepreneurs to develop and patent products, improving the quality of Thailand’s wireless and physical infrastructure, and other priorities. The zero-sum nature of current Thai politics also has led both Puea Thai and, when they were in power, the Democrat Party to continually offer populist promises in an attempt to either shore up their power base in the north/northeast or to win over that group of the population. Although some of these populist promises went unfulfilled, and others had a powerful impact on equality, still others, like the disastrous rice pledging scheme, hindered growth and set a terrible example for future economic policy-making. Finally, the constant political turmoil has, over fifteen years, driven some of the most capable Thai civil servants out of government and into the private sector, either in Bangkok or abroad. After all, who wants to continue to work in government when you never know whether elected ministers will try to purge the bureaucracy of anyone who does not kowtow to the prime minister (Thai Rak Thai/Puea Thai’s strategy) or whether angry, sometimes armed protestors will besiege your ministry, lock the doors, and physically try to bar you from entering and even assault you (PDRC/Democrat strategy)? The bureaucracy, in the past, was critical to maintaining Thailand’s long-term macroeconomic stability and its openness to investors, but the Thai bureaucracy is not what it was in the past. With governments coming and going, the civil service no longer can provide the kind of policy-making anchor that it once did.

Over the weekend, Thailand’s political crisis moved closer to the ultimate endgame, which is a complete takeover by anti-government forces, both in the street and in institutions in Bangkok. Primarily pro-government Thais came out to polls across the country to vote in advance balloting, which went on without incident in much of the North and Northeast. In these places, one might have thought a normal election was proceeding. In Bangkok and parts of the South, the demonstrators blocked many polling booths, and the level of anger and violence went up a notch, if that was even possible. The Economist this weekend essentially suggests that Thailand is going to break apart. I think that’s extreme, but the situation is deteriorating out of control quite quickly. What do I mean exactly by an unannounced coup? Well, this unannounced coup is, in a way, already essentially taking place. By not allowing the government to enjoy the support of the military in its approach to protesters, and by essentially threatening the Thai government that any violence at all—no matter who is behind the violence—will result in the removal of the Yingluck government, the Thai military is taking a stand in the contest for power. Though it may claim to be neutral, as army commander Prayuth has done on many recent occasions, the military’s lack of overt action is actually sending a clear and partisan message, and one that is on the side of the protesters. For example, although the military allowed the Democrat/Abhisit government to use the army’s base as a center of command and operations during the 2010 unrest in Bangkok, the army and now the Thai air force have refused to allow the Puea Thai/Yingluck government to use their facilities to house a command and operations center. This refusal, as much as if the military took a proactive step in handing over a command and operations center, is an action. Meanwhile, both the protestors and government agencies continue to slowly undermine the government. Even if Puea Thai wins the upcoming election, it will not be able to fill Parliament, and the government will become weaker and weaker, leaving a vacuum of power that can ultimately be filled by either the “People’s Council,” the military, or some combination of the two. I see no alternative other than this vacuum of power developing and building. Since many potential caretaker figures—moderate Puea Thai leaders, as well as some people from the Privy Council and other elite institutions—have turned down private requests to enter the situation, mediate, and serve as a caretaker prime minister to avoid this vacuum, chaos will only get worse for now.

Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. Report reveals that several of China’s top leaders hold trillions in offshore accounts. A new report by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) revealed nearly 22,000 tax haven clients from Hong Kong and mainland China. Among the confidential files cited, there are details of a real estate company co-owned by President Xi Jinping’s brother-in-law, and British Virgin Island companies set up by former Premier Wen Jiabao’s son and son-in-law. The report also states that PricewaterhouseCooper, UBS, and other Western banks have acted as middlemen aiding in setting up the offshore accounts. According to the report, “by some estimates, between $1 trillion and $4 trillion in untraced assets have left the country since 2000.” The ICIJ website is now blocked in China. 2. Postponement of elections until after February 2 ruled constitutional. On Friday, a Thai court ruled that Thailand’s elections, originally scheduled for February 2, can be postponed further, ruling that the Constitution “does not absolutely mandate that the election day cannot be rescheduled.” The court stated that extenuating circumstances can allow for such a postponement. The move has been labeled by some as a judicial coup d’etat, as it could create a power vacuum if no elections are held within the sixty-day period after the dissolution of the House of Representatives subscribed by the Constitution. The court’s ruling is seen as a victory for anti-government protesters, led by former parliamentarian Suthep Thaugsuban, who are seeking to supplant the current government with an unelected “people’s council.” Thailand’s pro-government “red shirt” activists have expressed their willingness to rise up if the elections are scrapped, setting up the prospect of further violence. Nine deaths have been attributed to the protests. 3. Chinese activist lawyer on trial. Xu Zhiyong, a human rights lawyer who campaigned against corruption, is on trial in China for “gathering crowds to disrupt public order.” Xu was a founding member of an informal grassroots group, New Citizens Movement, which demands that Chinese authorities follow the laws outlined in the country’s constitution. Xu also campaigned on behalf of inmates on death row and families affected by tainted baby milk formula in 2009. He was arrested in July 2013, and was previously under house arrest. CFR adjunct fellow and China legal expert Jerome A. Cohen said in an interview that it is unlikely that Xu will receive a fair trial, and “there is a kind of Alice in Wonderland absurdity to these proceedings.” Also this week, Chinese venture capitalist-turned-activist Wang Gongquan won release after being detained for four months, after he admitted to collaborating with another dissident standing trial. Wang, who made a fortune in real estate and Silicon Valley, began protesting against unofficial detention centers (also known as black jails) in 2011. 4. Indo-Australian relations deteriorate. Indonesia has stated it is beefing up naval patrols on its southern border, and the Indonesian Air Force has declared Australia to be “reachable.” The actions and statements come in the wake of “inadvertent” incursions by the Australian Navy into Indonesian sovereign waters, which occurred as Australia was trying to implement its aggressive policy to prevent asylum seekers. From Canberra, the policy appears to be working—in the first hundred days, boat arrivals have dropped by 80 percent. The Australian government has apologized for the intrusions, but Australian Immigration Minister Scott Morrison stated that there would be “no stepping back” from the country’s hardline policy despite rising tensions with Jakarta. 5. South Korean trade official returned following kidnapping in Libya. Han Seok-woo, head of the Tripoli branch of the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, was freed by security forces on Wednesday after being abducted by four gunmen three days prior. The gunmen stopped his car while Han was driving home from work. A South Korean Foreign Ministry official reported on Monday that no one has communicated why they have kidnapped him or what they wanted. Libyan officials identified the gunmen as members of a small armed group. Along with issuing a travel warning, the Korean Foreign Ministry has recommended the 551 South Korean nationals living in Libya leave the country. Bonus: Hong Kong billionaire offers over $120 million to man able to convince his lesbian daughter to marry him. Hong Kong billionaire Cecil Chao offered HK$1 billion (US$128.8 million) to any man who was able to convince his daughter to marry him, despite the fact that she has a wife. His initial offer of HK$500 million attracted 20,000 potential suitors. However, daughter Gigi Chao said that no amount of money would be able to convince her to marry a man, but she “would be happy to befriend any man willing to donate huge amounts of money to [her] charity, Faith in Love.” British ‘Borat’ actor Sacha Baron Cohen is rumored to be planning a movie about Gigi Chao’s plight.

Despite officially being a constitutional monarchy and supposedly no different than the monarchies of Britain, the Netherlands, or modern-day Japan, Thailand’s royal family has, during the reign of King Bhumibhol Adulyadej, always been far more closely involved in Thai politics than any constitutional monarch would be. However, until the past decade, the royal family usually conducted its interventions behind the scenes. The king and his allies normally acted behind at least a veil of deniability, so that in times of crisis, the king could potentially play the role of mediator and neutral-broker. A recent post on New Mandala by Professor Pavin Chachavalpongpun of Kyoto University highlights how, over the past decade, as the king’s health has declined and speculation has erupted about the eventual royal succession and its implications for Thai politics, other members of the royal family have become openly political, a contrast from the past. Prof. Pavin’s essay analyzes the barely concealed online political discourse of Princess Chulabhon, who in recent weeks has appeared in a wide variety of social media touting her disapproval of the government and support of demonstrators in the streets of Bangkok. Her activities follow on the heels of Queen Sirikit’s open rhetorical support of the previous generation of anti-Shinawatra/royalist/Yellow Shirt protesters—the type of open political involvement that supposedly has infuriated the king. As Pavin notes, along with Princess Chulabhon,  Queen Sirikit “attended the controversial funeral of Nong Bo, a yellow-shirt member. In that event, Sirikit praised the courage of Nong Bo who met with an untimely death while participating in the royalist mob led by the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD). A large number of red shirts were enraged by the obvious partiality of the Queen and Chulabhorn. That event now serves as ‘National Enlightenment Day.’” To some observers of Thai politics, the open politicization of the royal family is a disaster—a shift that further undermines civilian, democratic leaders and reduces the monarchy’s ability to play a neutral, mediating, above-politics function. But, in the long run, this politicization, combined with the eventual reign of a king who enjoys far less public trust and love than Rama IX, could actually be a net positive for Thai democracy. As the monarchy loses some degree of public trust, other democratic institutions eventually will have to assume the role of mediator and crisis-solver, and a real constitutional monarchy can develop in Thailand.

Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. Explosions hit protestors in Bangkok. Two explosions hit anti-government protestors in Bangkok, Thailand on January 17, wounding more than two dozen people. Some reports claim the explosion was the result of an explosive device, such as a grenade. Since Monday, protestors have taken to the streets in opposition to the nation’s political system, which they demand be overhauled along with the resignation of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, whom they accuse of corruption. The protests, which have gathered around seven main intersection in Bangkok, started with 170,000 protestors on Monday and dropped to 60,000 people on Tuesday. By Friday, only 12,000 protesters were still on the streets. Though generally peaceful, the protest has been marred by small incidences of violence between the protesters and police during this week’s demonstration. 2. Buddhist mob allegedly kills Muslims in Burma. Buddhist mobs allegedly attacked members of the Rohingya Muslim minority in Rakhine state earlier this week, killing up to sixty people, after the disappearance of a policeman at a Rohingya village. Human rights groups report that security forces joined in the attack. Rakhine state officials denied that anyone was killed, but said that eighty-four Rohingya villagers were arrested. The United States has expressed “deep concern” about the reports and urged the government to investigate. At least 237 people have been killed and 140,000 displaced in the religious violence in the country since June 2012. Most of the victims have been Muslim Rohingya, who are denied citizenship and have less access to health care and education than Buddhists in the country. The Burmese government also uses the term “Bengali” to refer to the Rohingya, claiming that many are illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, though many have lived in Myanmar for centuries. The violence takes place as Burma begins its chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. As many as 230,000 Rohingya refugees have fled to Bangladesh, and thousands more live in refugee camps in Thailand. 3. U.S. Navy Realigns Carrier Fleet in Japan. On Tuesday, the U.S. Navy announced that the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier U.S.S. Ronald Reagan will replace the U.S.S. George Washington and become part of the U.S. 7th Fleet of forward-deployed naval forces stationed in Yokosuka, Japan. A specific timeline for the move has yet to be announced, but the Navy said in a press release that “The security environment in the Indo-Asia-Pacific requires that the U.S. Navy station the most capable ships forward. This posture allows the most rapid response times possible for maritime and joint forces, and brings our most capable ships with the greatest amount of striking power and operational capability to bear in the timeliest manner.” The Reagan is well known in Japan for assisting in Operation Tomodachi relief efforts after the March 11 triple disasters struck in 2011, but there are also local concerns about its use of nuclear power. The Washington became the first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to be sent to Japan as part of the 7th Fleet when it replaced the U.S.S. Kitty Hawk in 2008. 4. Lunar New Year in China leads to holiday travel rush. China’s most important holiday, the Lunar New Year, has begun, and government officials estimate that Chinese people will travel by air, road, and railway 3.62 billion times over a forty-day period. The holiday officially only lasts a week, from January 31 to February 6 this year, but for many this is the only opportunity to return home for family gatherings. Travel delays are not the only concern however, as China is revealing a steadily increasing number of H7N9 bird flu cases. Health experts fear that the disease may be spreading, particularly as millions of Chinese will be traveling in the coming weeks. Fourteen new cases were announced this week alone. 5. Activists send balloons with information about the outside world into North Korea. Activists in South Korea, including some North Korean defectors, sent helium-filled balloons stuffed with propaganda materials into North Korea this week, including leaflets on human rights abuses, U.S. dollar bills, and small USB drives loaded with the Korean-language Wikipedia. North Korea has previously threatened to bomb South Korea in response to these actions and released an official statement saying that the launch is reminiscent of a “puppy knowing no fear of a tiger.” Seoul insists it has nothing to do with the launches, which have occurred often in the past. Thor Halvorssen, president of the U.S.-based Human Rights Foundation, participated in the balloon launch and wrote a detailed review of the experience. Bonus: Impressive business card in hand, Chinese billionaire offers to buy New York Times. This past week, news of Chinese recycling magnate Chen Guangbiao’s boastful business card has rivaled coverage of his offer to buy the New York Times, an offer which was rejected on Tuesday. Including such monikers as “Most Influential Person of China,” “Most Well-known and Beloved Chinese Role Model,” and “Most Charismatic Philanthropist of China,” the now-infamous business card is not the only thing working against Chen’s proposal to buy the American newspaper. He claimed to come to New York to purchase foreign media assets, and his capability to run the American newspaper is bolstered because he is “very good at working with Jews.” Business cards with the owner’s photographed visage or such bombastic titling is not uncommon in Chinese culture, but is also considered showy.

The first day of the Thai anti-government protesters’ Bangkok shutdown, which is now planned to go on indefinitely, went off relatively quietly, at least by recent standards in Thailand. The protesters massed at major intersections, blew whistles, held almost festival-like cheers, and generally gathered peacefully. Although many Bangkok residents were annoyed by the chaos created on the streets, business districts, and public transportation, a significant percentage of Bangkokians support the general aims of the protest movement; and, the relatively peaceful nature of the first day of the shutdown allowed some people in the capital to briefly exhale. Although many policemen—and, most likely, some army soldiers sympathetic to the caretaker government—have been chomping at the bit to crack down on demonstrations, on the first day the security forces operated with great restraint, especially by the brutal standards established in Thailand in the past four years. The caretaker government’s decision that it was willing to potentially postpone parliamentary elections for several months, in order to cool tensions and address some of the protesters’ demands, also could be seen as a positive step forward. But no one in Thailand should exhale too deeply. The leader of the protests, former Democrat Party deputy prime minister Suthep Thaugsuban, who was already acting like a messianic figure, seems to have been empowered even more by the first day of demonstrations, and by the equivocal response to the protests by army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha. Not only has Suthep now vowed that the demonstrations will go on indefinitely until the government is toppled but he also has become increasingly belligerent, even ridiculous, in his demands—that media in Thailand broadcast every announcement by protest leaders live, that the local media stop covering the caretaker government. The protesters already have rejected elections not only in February but also potential polls held a few months down the road. One suspects that they would reject elections altogether, at any time, and under any circumstances. What’s more, as often happens in Thailand, Monday’s seemingly benign image conceals a darker reality. Many currents of tension run just below the surface of the situation in Bangkok, and were visible even on the peaceful first day of protests. In the early hours of the demonstrations, someone shot two people at the anti-government camps. No one has any idea how many armed, reckless agitators exist a midst the protesters or against pro-Puea Thai men and women in the police and the general population. A hard-line group within the protesters already has vowed that, if the government does not step down in several days, the demonstrators are going to move faster to totally paralyze the city, including attacking the main airports and other transportation hubs. This step, even more than the current strategy of mobbing at key intersections in Bangkok and stopping some forms of public transport, would paralyze commerce and tourism in Bangkok, totally embarrass the government, and force the Yingluck caretaker government to respond more forcefully. Indeed, it was just this type of airport shutdown several years ago—by basically the same group of royalist, elite protesters—that helped topple a previous iteration of Puea Thai. Expect some kind of tough move by demonstrators by the end of this week. As the International Crisis Group warned today, the “scope for peaceful resolution is narrowing” in Thailand. Indeed.

Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. Bangladesh’s governing party wins vote despite unrest. Bangladesh’s Awami League won 232 of 300 seats in the country’s new Parliament, with nearly half of the seats uncontested due to a boycott from the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP), which labeled the election a sham. The government declared the average turnout to be 39.8 percent, though the opposition leader, Khaleda Zia, said that the turnout was closer to 10 percent. Twenty-two protesters were killed on Sunday, and seven were killed on Monday; the government also arrested seven high-ranking BNP leaders this week, including a close aide to Zia. The government has also demanded that the BNP cut ties with the banned Islamic party Jamaat-e-Islami. 2. North Korea rejects South’s proposal for family reunions. Pyongyang refused Seoul’s request for family reunions on January 9, citing concerns about military drills in South Korea. The reunions, which are part of a humanitarian effort to allow elderly family members separated by the peninsula’s division in 1953 to reunite, have been on hold since 2010, when North Korea launched a series of minor provocations against the South. Efforts to restart the program in September 2013 were also canceled by North Korea, who at that time blamed Seoul for rhetorical provocation. South Korean president Park Geun-hye proposed the reunions be held for the Lunar New Year on January 31. The South Korean Ministry of Unification expressed disappointment over the rejection, and urged the North to “show sincerity through its actions, instead of talking about improving ties only with words.” The North Korean unification committee hinted that reunions could possibly occur in a better political climate. 3. Rodman apologizes for incendiary remarks about an American imprisoned in North Korea. On January 9, former NBA star Dennis Rodman apologized for his outburst during an interview with CNN, in which he seemed to suggest Kenneth Bae, an American imprisoned in North Korea, was potentially guilty for an unnamed crime. The remarks drew much criticism, including from Bae’s family in the United States. For his fourth and much-publicized visit to Pyongyang—this time for an exhibition game staged for Kim Jong-un’s birthday—Dennis Rodman brought eleven American players, seven of whom are former NBA athletes. Diplomats and scholars are cautiously watching Rodman’s visits, which he has called “basketball diplomacy.” The U.S. State Department continues to distance themselves from Rodman by underscoring that the retired basketball star is there not as a representative of the U.S. government and has not contacted Rodman about his trips to North Korea. 4. Thai anticorruption authorities open investigations of hundreds of officials. Thailand’s National Anticorruption Committee announced this week that 308 lawmakers, mostly members of the governing party Pheu Thai, are under investigation on suspicion of “malfeasance in office.” The inquiry stems from a constitutional amendment, later ruled by a court to have been enacted illegally, that would have made the Thai Senate a directly elected body instead of having half of the body appointed by a committee of officials and judges. Critics of the constitutional amendment saw it as an effort by Pheu Thai to solidify its power; opponents of the anticorruption investigation charge that the inquiry is “highly” politicized. The opposition is boycotting upcoming elections and has attempted to disrupt voter registration. 5. Accused Indian diplomat returns to Delhi. Devyani Khobragade, who was India’s deputy consul-general in New York, was allowed to return to India after her indictment by a federal grand jury for falsifying visa documents and lying about underpaying her housekeeper. The twenty-page indictment alleges that Khobragade paid her housekeeper under $3.33 per hour, making her work ninety hours per week with no days off. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs reiterated her innocence. The U.S. State Department said that it would recall an unidentified U.S. diplomat at India’s request shortly after, a serious and rare occurrence. India has postponed visits by U.S. officials and a business delegation in protest of Khobragade’s arrest one month ago. On Wednesday, the government ordered the U.S. embassy to close a social club frequented by expatriates. Bonus: A dispute that must not be named. Last week, China’s ambassador to Britain Liu Xiaoming compared Japanese militarism to Lord Voldemort—the villain from the Harry Potter series—in an opinion piece in the Daily Telegraph, writing, “If militarism is like the haunting Voldemort of Japan, the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo is a kind of Horcrux, representing the darkest parts of that nation’s soul.” Not to be outdone, Tokyo’s ambassador to London Keiichi Hayashi responded on January 6 in an op-ed in the same paper that it is China that risks becoming Asia’s Voldemort by “letting loose the evil of an arms race and escalation of tensions.” Needless to say, the Harry Potter-themed name-calling did little to ease tensions between the two neighbors, which have been strained recently by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine and China’s announcement of a new Air Defense Identification Zone that covers the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. It seems fitting, though, that such an exchange should take place in the UK—perhaps Harry Potter is required reading for diplomats dispatched there.

The planned shutdown for Bangkok on Monday Thai time, which is supposed to paralyze the capital, is but the latest in a series of anti-government protests held around the capital. But as I wrote earlier this week, all sides now are becoming more extreme, and I see no reason to think that this week will be peaceful. Instead, both the hard-core of the protest movement and some officers among the pro-red shirt police force are itching for an open conflict in the streets. This, I think, is likely to occur next week, and I expect both some of the protesters and many of the most aggressive—and, frankly, stupid—police to break out weaponry, including potentially even live ammunition. This violent confrontation, of course, is exactly what the leaders of the anti-government demonstrations want, and not what the caretaker government wants—or what most Thais, including most Bangkokians want. (A fine recent article in Khao Sod shows that most Thais do not want this kind of confrontation in Bangkok.) But at this point the caretaker government has less and less control over the hardest-core elements of the police force, and though the Yingluck government thus far has exercised a high level of restraint in dealing with the protesters, basically allowing the demonstrators to do largely whatever they want, I don’t know that the government can stop the coming confrontation. And the end game, I think, is going to be a coup. I did not think so a month ago, but it seems highly likely now. A coup would be a tragedy, and even more dangerous and retrograde than in 2006, but it seems to be coming now.

Just as in 2013, the new year promises to be a year of enormous dynamism and change in Asia. The region is now not only the biggest engine of global growth but also the center of multilateral free trade negotiations, the real heart of a democracy “spring” in developing nations--and the home of the rawest, most dangerous power politics in the world. After all, only in Asia do great powers with great stocks of nuclear weapons still face each other down, Cold War-style. In a new piece for Bloomberg, I offer my predictions for the region for 2014. Read it here.

Having just returned from Thailand, where the anti-government protest movement continues in force, and plans to shut down Bangkok again in two weeks, I can’t say I am optimistic about the Kingdom’s prospects for 2014. Although I do not think the anti-government protests planned for January 13 will draw as many people as those in December, simply because it is hard to continue to turn out such large numbers, the core of the demonstrators have become more and more willing to use aggressive, violent tactics. The increasing hard-line nature of the protests hardly bodes well for January. In addition, although the caretaker government has thus far been relatively restrained in its response to the demonstrations, my interviews with police in Thailand suggest that a few policemen who are generally sympathetic to Puea Thai and resentful of the army are itching to use greater force against the protests. Indeed, on January 2, the police commander told Thai newspapers that some of the sketchy “men in black” who appeared on top of a building during the violent fights between protesters and police on December 26 were policemen. Some of the “men in black” appeared to be trying to instigate violence and may have fired down into the crowds of protesters on the 26th who massed in Din Daeng. See here  for the police commander’s comments. As the date moves closer to the planned election in February, and if there has been no army, judicial, or independent agency coup in early January, I think the protesters are only going to become more openly aggressive, trying to spark such a significant police response that it forces more outbreaks of violence in Bangkok, and makes it harder for the army and the palace to stand on the sidelines. And while some police commanders (and senior politicians in Puea Thai) understand that using significant deadly force against protesters would be entirely counterproductive, I also think that neither the government nor the top police commanders have very good control of mid-level ranks. So, the prospect for a major clash in Bangkok in January remains very high.