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The World Next Week: May 28, 2015

Muhammadu Buhari is sworn in as Nigeria's next president; Philippine President Benigno Aquino visits Japan and more candidates announce their intentions to run for U.S. president.

Podcast with James M. Lindsay and Robert McMahon May 28, 2015 The World Next Week
Asia

Philippines and Vietnam Rapidly Building Strategic Partnership

Until the past five years, the Philippines and Vietnam had minimal strategic ties other than working together, through ASEAN initiatives, on a range of nontraditional security issues. The two countries had very different styles of leadership---the Philippines is a vibrant democracy with one of the freest media markets in the world, while Vietnam remains run by a highly opaque Party---and Hanoi remained wary of diverging from its strategy of hedging close ties with China with increasingly close relations with the United States. By contrast, the Philippines, despite a very mixed historical relationship with the United States, was (and is) a U.S. treaty ally and one of Washington’s closest partners in Southeast Asia. Vietnam and the Philippines did not hold joint military exercises, rarely had high-level bilateral interactions between senior political and military leaders, and also had only modest two-way trade. But since 2010, as China’s posture in the South China Sea has become increasingly assertive, and Vietnam and the Philippines have pushed back harder against Beijing than any other Southeast Asian nations, the two ASEAN countries have moved much closer together. At first, the closeness was informal---Philippine and Vietnamese sailors mingling on disputed rocks in the South China Sea to drink beers and play sports, top leaders from the two countries holding unannounced bilateral meetings on the sidelines of ASEAN meetings to discuss possible joint responses to Chinese actions like dredging and reported Chinese building of what appears to be a military-use airstrip on an atoll in the Spratly Islands. Now, Hanoi and Manila appear willing to formalize their cooperation, which should be a worrying thought for Beijing, since this cooperation signals that Southeast Asian nations are now becoming more unified in their opposition to Beijing’s South China Sea policies. Manila and Hanoi will formalize a strategic partnership in the coming weeks, according to Philippine media. The strategic partnership likely will include a commitment to work together to resolve maritime disputes in the South China Sea, a commitment to holding joint naval exercises, and an agreement to conduct joint scientific studies in the South China Sea---studies that could potentially relate to hydrocarbons or fisheries, the Sea’s two most valuable resources. The strategic partnership still needs to be signed, and its details could still change. But just the fact that Hanoi and Manila are likely to begin holding joint military exercises, a vast shift from their lukewarm bilateral relations in the 2000s, should demonstrate to Beijing that its South China Sea policy is backfiring badly.

Blog Post by Joshua Kurlantzick April 24, 2015 Asia Unbound
South China Sea

Conflict in the South China Sea

Territorial disputes in the South China Sea continue to be a source of tension and potential conflict between China and other countries in the region. Though the United States takes no position on sovereignty claims in the South China Sea—including those of its ally, the Philippines—it is deeply interested in maintaining maritime security, upholding freedom of navigation, and ensuring that disputes are settled peacefully. For these reasons, a 2012 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum, "Armed Clash in the South China Sea," argued that the United States should help lower the risk of conflict in the region, including the potential for dangerous military incidents involving U.S. and Chinese military forces. New Concerns Beijing's intention to exert greater control over the South China Sea appears undiminished. In 2012, China forcibly seized control of the previously unoccupied Scarborough Reef during a standoff with Philippine maritime vessels, despite agreeing to a mutual withdrawal brokered by Washington. China has seemingly been emboldened by this easy, cost-free conquest: it has since begun construction of artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago that will enable it to extend the range of the Chinese navy, air force, coast guard, and fishing fleets in just a few years. Once sufficient capabilities are in place for round-the-clock maritime and air presence over the South China Sea, Beijing is likely to declare an air defense identification zone (ADIZ), similar to the ADIZ it declared over the East China Sea in November 2013. The scale and pace of China's dredging activity has alarmed rival claimants Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. The dispute between China and the Philippines over the Second Thomas Shoal deserves immediate attention. Since 1999, a small contingent of Philippine marines has been deployed on a vessel that Manila beached on the submerged reef. In 2014, Chinese coast guard ships attempted unsuccessfully to block delivery of food, water, and fresh troops to the military outpost. The condition of the beached ship is rapidly deteriorating and it is expected to slide into the sea in a matter of months unless it is reinforced. This situation could lead to another confrontation between Chinese and Philippine forces should Beijing decide to seize the shoal. The U.S.-Philippines mutual defense treaty could be invoked if, for example, a Philippine naval or coast guard vessel is attacked, a Philippine military aircraft is shot down, or members of the Philippine armed forces are injured. A military clash between China and Vietnam is also a concern. In May 2014, China deployed a deep-sea oil rig in Vietnam's two hundred–nautical mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ), leading to a seventy-three-day crisis in which Chinese and Vietnamese ships rammed each other repeatedly before the rig was withdrawn. Although Vietnam's military capabilities are dwarfed by China's, Hanoi is nevertheless determined to defend its maritime rights. Worries persist in Hanoi that Beijing could deploy the oil rig to contested waters again, risking military confrontation. Similar clashes could take place in the nine oil blocks along the coast of Vietnam, for which China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) invited foreign companies in 2012 to seek oil exploration bids, or near the Vietnamese-occupied Vanguard Bank. In addition, the risk of a dangerous incident involving U.S. and Chinese forces within China's EEZ remains a concern given the possibility of military escalation. Following several dangerous near-misses—notably in December 2013 involving a Chinese amphibious dock ship and a U.S. guided-missile cruiser and in August 2014 involving a Chinese fighter aircraft and a U.S. surveillance plane—the U.S. and Chinese militaries struck a groundbreaking deal on rules of behavior for safe military encounters between surface naval ships at sea. Such confidence-building measures may help reduce the potential for accidents in the future. However, individual commanders may still display aggressive behavior that could have dire consequences. Policy Implications U.S. interests in the South China Sea include freedom of navigation, unimpeded passage for commercial shipping, and peaceful resolution of territorial disputes according to international law. Failure to respond to Chinese coercion or use of force could damage U.S. credibility, not only in Southeast Asia, but also in Japan, where anxiety about intensified activity by Chinese military and paramilitary forces is growing. Conflict in the South China Sea would put at risk the more than $5 trillion in trade that passes through those strategic waters annually. Also at stake is the U.S. relationship with China, including Washington's efforts to gain greater cooperation from Beijing on global issues such as combatting terrorism, dealing with epidemics, confronting climate change, securing a deal on Iran's nuclear program, and persuading North Korea to relinquish its nuclear weapons. Recommendations Although China may have moderated some of its intimidation tactics for now, it continues to seek greater control over the sea and airspace in the South China Sea. Moreover, various attempts to persuade China, along with the other claimants, to freeze destabilizing behavior such as land reclamation have not succeeded. Beijing continues to drag its feet on negotiating a binding code of conduct (CoC) with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and has rejected Manila's attempt to resolve its territorial dispute through arbitration under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Halting Chinese land reclamation activities may not be possible, but the United States can press China to be transparent about its intentions and urge other nations to do the same. While remaining neutral on sovereignty disputes, the United States should encourage all parties to pursue their claims peacefully and in accordance with international law. The United States should also press China to accept constraints on its behavior in a CoC and dissuade China from taking actions that increase the risk of conflict. Several of the recommendations in CFR's 2012 analysis of potential conflict in the South China Sea remain to be implemented; in particular, the United States should ratify UNCLOS. In addition, the United States should take the following steps: In the absence of progress between China and ASEAN on a binding CoC to avert crises in the South China Sea, the United States should encourage ASEAN to develop its own draft CoC containing risk-reduction measures and a dispute-resolution mechanism. The United States should then work with ASEAN to convince Beijing to sign and implement it. The United States should continue to help the Philippines and Vietnam enhance their maritime policing and security capabilities, for example through better surveillance systems, so they can deter and respond to China entering the water and airspace in their EEZs with impunity. Similar assistance should be extended to Malaysia if requested. The United States should be prepared to respond to future Chinese coercive acts including using U.S. naval forces to deter China's continuing use of "white hulled" paramilitary vessels. Other responses, such as imposing economic sanctions on Chinese energy companies should they drill in contested waters, are also conceivable but should not be specified in advance. The United States should state clearly and publicly that a declaration of an ADIZ by Beijing over the South China Sea would be destabilizing and would not be recognized by Washington. To further reduce the risk of an accident between U.S. and Chinese forces, the two militaries should implement their joint commitment to conclude an agreement on air-to-air encounters by the end of the year.

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Bonnie S. Glaser April 7, 2015 Center for Preventive Action

China

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of January 16, 2015

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, William Piekos, Ariella Rotenberg, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Pope Francis visits Sri Lanka and the Philippines. The pope made his second trip to Asia in less than two years, a sign of his “interest and pastoral concern for the people of that vast continent,” visiting Sri Lanka and Philippines (which have Catholic populations of 6 percent and 81 percent, respectively). His first stop was Colombo, where he preached peace and reconciliation and said that Sri Lanka must heal divisions from the country’s twenty-five year civil war. After holding mass in the capital, Francis traveled to Tamil territory in the north to visit the Our Lady of Madhu shrine, a Catholic pilgrimage site. It was the first visit by a pope to the region. In the Philippines, Asia’s only predominately Christian country, the pope denounced corruption and reasserted the Catholic Church’s opposition to artificial contraception. Francis will hold three masses in the capital of Manila and in Tacloban, the province most affected by Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. 2. Kerry wraps up visits in India and Pakistan. In advance of U.S. President Barack Obama’s trip to India at the end of the month, Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to India over the weekend to lead the U.S. delegation for the Vibrant Gujarat Investment Summit, hosted in the home state of Indian Prime Minister Modi. This is Kerry’s second trip in the past six months to India, signifying growing commitment to expanding the U.S.-India relationship. While there, Kerry also met with the prime minister of Bhutan, making him the first U.S. cabinet member to meet with a Bhutanese government official. On Monday, Kerry traveled to Pakistan for the U.S.-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue Ministerial where he emphasized, among other things, the importance of eradicating all militant groups in Pakistan. His message comes a month after militants attacked a school in Peshawar, killing close to 150 people, the majority of them children. 3. Hong Kong’s leader backpedals on democracy. Leung Chun-ying, Hong Kong’s chief executive, addressed the legislative council for the first time since pro-democracy street protests came to an end in December 2014. Leung asserted that Hong Kong would face an economic standstill and would “denigrate into anarchy” if it was granted full-fledged democracy. Leung was heavily criticized by pro-democracy leaders, including Lee Cheuk-yan, chairman of the Labor Party, who accused Leung of suppressing free speech. 4. Turks arrested in China after being accused of aiding terror suspects. A Chinese state-run newspaper reported on Wednesday that Shanghai police arrested ten Turkish citizens and two Chinese citizens. The twelve arrested were accused of selling Turkish passports to terror suspects in Xinjiang. The suspects, nine ethnic Uighurs, are accused of trying to use the faulty passports to leave the country illegally and travel abroad; Syria was reportedly one of their possible destinations. Meanwhile, two days prior, in China’s western province of Xinjiang, state media reported that security forces shot and killed six Uighur men after they attacked police. These deaths are added to the more than one hundred people killed in Xinjiang in recent months during clashes between Chinese security forces and Uighurs. 5. Japan approves record defense budget. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet endorsed a nearly five trillion yen ($42 billion) defense budget for the year, including plans to buy surveillance aircraft, drones, amphibious vehicles, and F-35 fighter jets to help counter China’s rising assertiveness and the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear program. While the defense budget is only about 1 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product—roughly half the ratio of China and a quarter of that of the United States—military spending remains controversial in Japan. After a decade of cuts, the new budget marks the third consecutive year of increased defense spending, a sign that Japan seeks to become a stronger player in regional security. BONUS: Hong Kong man caught entering China with ninety-four smuggled iPhones strapped to his body. Shenzhen inspectors caught the man because of his odd gait; the man had created a “mobile armor” of the smartphones taped in plastic bags around his entire body. The hidden cargo—both iPhone 6 and iPhone 5s models—are estimated to be worth over 300,000 yuan (US$49,000). The newest iPhone model sells for almost $1,000 in mainland China but can be purchased for $820 in Hong Kong.

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound January 16, 2015 Asia Unbound
Disasters

Better Planning This Time for Philippine Typhoon

As of Sunday night on the U.S. East Coast, Typhoon Hagupit had made landfall in the Philippines and moved across parts of the country. The typhoon had weakened and appears to not pack the force of Typhoon Haiyan, which devastated parts of the Philippines last year. Still, Hagupit already has caused significant damage. Casualty and damage figures remain incomplete, but initial estimates suggest that at least 20 people have been killed and thousands of homes have been destroyed by Typhoon Hagupit, with the damage yet to be tolled from the storm’s movement over Metro Manila. Typhoon Hagupit also may have set back some of the reconstruction that has taken place in areas hit by Haiyan last year. Hagupit is a tragedy, but compared to last year’s Typhoon Haiyan, which killed over 6,000 people, this time the Philippine government has prepared more effectively. These preparations are likely to reduce the total amount of damage caused by this typhoon, though of course there is only so much Manila can do in the face of a natural disaster, and global climate change appears to be increasing the fury of the storms that regularly lash the Philippines. Still, whereas last year Manila waited until the last minute to push for evacuations, with Hagupit the government issued evacuation orders well in advance, giving people time to leave their homes. Nearly one million people were evacuated from possible danger zones in advance of the storm, a decision that almost surely has helped keep the casualty count low. The Aquino government made significant preparations for protecting the parts of Metro Manila most vulnerable to flooding, stacking up sandbags and other protective devices, canceling all major public events so that people stay home, and mapping out a plan, in advance, for clearing roads and airports in the capital and other parts of the country. In addition, the Aquino government readily accepted assistance, in advance of Hagupit, from the United States, Japan, and other countries in tracking the storm’s progress, helping with the evacuation process, and putting humanitarian aid stations in place before the storm hit. The national government and local governments also assembled search-and-rescue teams in advance of this storm, so that after the storm hit, the rescue teams would immediately be able to move into action to help survivors and treat the wounded. With Haiyan, by contrast, the Aquino government was dangerously blasé about setting up aid stations before the storm or working with other governments to prepare. After Haiyan, survivors often were left without food or water. Given that the Philippines is, according to the Global Climate Risk Index, one of the countries in the world most affected by extreme weather events, this kind of preparation will, sadly, have to become the norm in Manila.

Blog Post by Joshua Kurlantzick December 8, 2014 Asia Unbound
China

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of May 2, 2014

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Attack in Xinjiang kills three and injures seventy-nine. A blast in the provincial capital of Urumqi, in China’s northwest province of Xinjiang, killed two bombers and a third bystander at a train station on Wednesday. According to Chinese state media, “knife-wielding mobs” attacked people at one of the station’s exits following the blasts. Chinese authorities claimed to have identified the assailants as Muslim religious extremists, fighting for independence from China. Urumqi is no stranger to violent ethnic strife and is a heavily policed city. The attacks follow similar incidents in the past year: in March, ten assailants, allegedly Uighur separatists, killed twenty-nine commuters at a train station in Kunming, Yunnan province; and in October 2013, three Uighurs drove a car through Tiananmen Square in Beijing, killing themselves and two tourists. Chinese president Xi Jinping has declared long-term stability in Xinjiang vital to national security and has made promoting “ethnic cohesion” one of his major initiatives in the region. 2. Brunei to adopt strict Islamic penal code. During a ceremony Wednesday morning, the sultan of Brunei, Hassanal Bolkiah, announced the commencement of the first phase of the country’s sharia-based penal code. Beginning this week, Brunei citizens can be fined or jailed by Islamic courts for offenses like not performing Friday prayers, pregnancy out of wedlock, propagating other religions, and indecent behavior. More severe punishments such as flogging, amputation of limbs, and death by stoning will be gradually introduced. The United Nations Commission on Human Rights, Amnesty International, and the Human Rights Campaign, in addition to a growing contingent of Hollywood celebrities, have denounced the law. Brunei’s decision, and the radical interpretation of Islam it supports, is of great concern to neighboring countries with significant Islamic minorities, including India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Indonesia. 3. Obama wraps up Asia tour, meets mixed reactions. President Barack Obama traveled to Southeast Asia early this week, after traveling to Japan and Korea last week (see last week’s Friday Asia Update for details on that trip). In Malaysia (which had not received a standing American president since Lyndon Johnson in 1966), Obama tried to court what has been called the “swing state” of Southeast Asia, treading lightly on issues such as human rights and ethnic strife in the newly democratized nation. In the Philippines, Obama signed a new ten-year defense agreement that gives U.S. troops access to some Filipino military bases, which has only underscored the ambiguity of U.S. military commitment in the region vis-à-vis China, though he was careful to emphasize that the U.S. goal is not to counter or contain China while in Manila. There has been tepid response from Beijing to the tour, seen in China as the “re-rebalance”; speaking to Obama indirectly, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Qin Gang said, “If you come, or if you don’t come, I am here.” 4. Indian elections near a close, with Modi expected to become next prime minister. Results for the world’s biggest election will be announced in two weeks. Several high-profile names were among the contestants in Wednesday’s polling—the seventh of nine phases—including the frontrunner Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) candidate for prime minister, Narendra Modi; Sonia Gandhi, the president of the ruling Congress party; and Rajnath Singh, the president of the BJP. All opinion polls point to a BJP-led government, but Narendra Modi remains a divisive figure. He is criticized for his failure to quell the 2002 riots in his home state, Gujarat, in which many Muslims were killed—although the courts have cleared him of any wrongdoing due to lack of evidence. Despite this stain, he is praised for his ability to streamline bureaucracy and attract investment in Gujarat. Also this week, John Oliver mocked Western television stations for ignoring the biggest election in human history. 5. Thailand’s election commission announces new date for vote. Thailand’s election authority stated that it will try to hold national elections for a second time on July 20. The results of February elections were nullified, and the country has been politically paralyzed since December. Many commentators believe a similar fate will befall the July elections, if they are held at all. The opposition Democrat Party has not decided whether it will participate—it boycotted the February elections, and anti-government protestors forced polling stations to close. In addition to these electoral and political challenges, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is facing several legal battles that could force her from power. Bonus: China’s “Big Ban Theory.” Chinese regulators this week ordered streaming video websites such as Sohu TV, iQiyi, and Youku to remove four popular U.S. television shows: “The Big Bang Theory,” “The Good Wife,” “NCIS,” and “The Practice.” No explanation was given for the move, which Time has affectionately called “the Big Ban Theory.” Many Chinese fans were surprised as to why these particular shows would be banned when other potentially more contentious shows—such as Netflix’s political drama “House of Cards,” which deals with thorny issues in the U.S.-China relationship, or HBO’s “Game of Thrones”—remain on the air. Not all hope is lost for Chinese fans: CCTV has bought the rights to show “The Big Bang Theory,” though initial reports suggest much of the content will be edited. Disgruntled fans shared a screenshot from an episode where the character Sheldon Cooper says, “I like China…they know how to keep people in line.”

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound May 2, 2014 Asia Unbound

China

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of January 31, 2014

Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. U.S. envoy to visit Sri Lanka as pressure builds for war crimes inquiry. Three days after the United States announced that it would seek a resolution at the United Nations Human Rights Council calling for an investigation into alleged war crimes in Sri Lanka, the U.S. State Department sent Nisha Biswal, assistant secretary of state for Central and South Asian affairs, to meet with government officials in the country. The ruling Sri Lankan government has not welcomed investigations into war crimes during the thirty-year civil war against the Tamil Tigers, though the UN Human Rights Council has already passed two resolutions pressing the Sri Lankan government to do so. The Northern Provincial Council of the country, a majority Tamil body, also voted for an independent investigation this week. The government of Sri Lanka continues to deny UN allegations that up to 40,000 civilians were killed by Sri Lankan troops in the final months of the war in 2009. 2. Senator Baucus in confirmation hearings to be next ambassador to China; gets an earful. Senator Max Baucus (D-MT) said that the United States needed to be “fair but firm” with China during a confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee after being nominated by President Obama to be the next U.S. ambassador to China. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) implied that Senator Baucus was not being firm enough, calling China a “rising threat” and saying that the Chinese leadership has a “profound belief… that China must, and will regain the dominant role that they had for a couple of thousand years in Asia.” Senator Baucus said that Senator McCain’s point was “accurate,” but insisted that the two countries must focus on finding common ground. Senator Baucus also began the confirmation hearing saying, “I’m no real expert on China”—though an aide later clarified that the comment was just the humble Montana way of speaking. 3. Japan’s NHK chief ignites controvery with "comfort women" remarks. On Saturday, Katsuo Momii, the new chairman of Japan’s national broadcaster NHK, ignited a firestorm of controversy when he said at a press conference that Japan’s practice of forcibly recruiting Asian women to serve as sexual slaves during World War II—commonly referred to as “comfort women”—existed in “every country” and is only considered wrong by “today’s morality.” Osaka mayor Toru Hashimoto, who created his own controversy last May when he suggested that Asia’s wartime brothels had been necessary, told reporters on Monday that he supported Momii’s argument. Momii later apologized for the remarks, calling them “extremely inappropriate” and asked that they be struck from the public record. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga downplayed calls for Momii’s resignation by saying that he made the comment as his personal view and not as the head of NHK. Nevertheless, on Friday Momii was called to appear before the National Diet, where he faced criticism from opposition parties who questioned his qualifications to lead NHK and provide the public with neutral, unbiased news. 4. China forces New York Times reporter to leave. In the latest in a series of Chinese actions targeting foreign journalists, China did not issue a visa for New York Times reporter Austin Ramzy. Ramzy had previously worked in China for Time magazine for six years, but when he started working for the New York Times last year, Ramzy was only issued a temporary visa. As it neared expiration, Ramzy was denied a new journalist visa. On Thursday Ramzy left Beijing for Taipei, where he will continue to report while he applies for a new visa to China. The White House has expressed its concern over Beijing’s treatment of foreign journalists; in response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei, via the state news agency Xinhua, denied that China forced Ramzy to leave. Ramzy is the second New York Times reporter forced to leave in thirteen months. The incidents follow an October 2012 article that reported then Premier Wen Jiabao’s family had accumulated wealth during his leadership. 5. Hong Kong imposes sanctions on Philippines. As of February 5, Philippine officials and diplomats will no longer have visa-free access to Hong Kong, the first phase of sanctions against the Philippines and the first time Hong Kong has imposed sanctions on a foreign country. The sanctions by Hong Kong are an attempt to secure an apology from Manila for what it considers the mishandling of a 2010 hostage situation on a Manila tour bus that resulted in the deaths of eight Hong Kong tourists. The Philippines has expressed its “deepest regret” for the incident but is “not prepared to consider” a formal apology. As many as 800 Filipinos visit Hong Kong each year on the existing visa-free arrangement. Bonus: Japanese vending machines now sell packaged tomatoes. Kagome, a large manufacturer and distributor of tomato-based foods in Japan, has set up a vending machine that peddles tomatoes. Kagome is marking the vegetable as a healthy post-run snack; the new machines have been installed at the end of a route popular with joggers near the Tokyo Imperial Palace. The packaged tomatoes come in two sizes, costing 300 yen ($3) or 400 yen ($4) per unit. The machine will remain until February 23, the date of the annual Tokyo Marathon. Vending machines are very common in Japan, selling everything from apples to t-shirts to hamburgers.

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound January 31, 2014 Asia Unbound
Vietnam

Why Was Vietnam Better Prepared Than the Philippines for Typhoon Haiyan?

Over the past week, as aid trickled and now is flowing into the Philippines in the wake of Typhoon Haiyan, some broader questions about the country’s preparedness—or lack thereof—have arisen. Although it would be unfair to compare the Philippines, a country with a GDP per capita of around $2,600, with richer countries hit by natural disasters (such as Thailand in the 2004 tsunami), it is worth asking why the Philippines seemed much less prepared for Haiyan than neighboring Vietnam, a country with a GDP per capita of only $1,600. Although the typhoon also passed through Vietnam, albeit after slowing down somewhat over the water in between, Vietnam suffered fourteen deaths, as compared to what appears to be thousands of fatalities in the Philippines. Vietnam managed to evacuate over 800,000 people well before the storm hit; the total number of people who evacuated in the Philippines prior to the storm remains unknown, but a sizable percentage of people on Leyte did not evacuate, a factor that surely increased fatalities. What differed in the two countries’ preparations? To be sure, Vietnam is an authoritarian state where the central government retains far more power than in the Philippines, one of the most vibrant democracies in Asia. But well before the typhoon hit, Vietnam’s government already had labeled it the most serious possible emergency, making it easier for provincial officials to convince people to leave their homes. Philippines President Benigno Aquino III did not label the typhoon the most serious possible emergency, a categorization that would have allowed him to mobilize more resources and possibly force the evacuation of more people prior to landfall. In addition, those who were evacuated in the Philippines were moved only a few hours before the storm made landfall, leaving authorities little time to look for isolated or elderly people who might not have heard warnings or been able to follow them. Vietnam’s buildings also simply seem to have been stronger; structures designated as storm shelters generally did not collapse, while those in the Philippines frequently did. This difference in the quality of building is a testament to the continuing serious problem of graft in the Philippines, where corruption siphons off funds for infrastructure and leads to shoddy work. Although parts of Leyte are regularly hit by typhoons that carry the risk of surges of water, the area had few significant water breaks; many buildings and roads were built with substandard materials, probably because contractors had to pay kickbacks. Vietnam is hardly a model of clean government—the country was ranked among the most corrupt countries in East Asia last year by Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index—but the Philippines is in many respects worse, particularly in areas of the country long under the control of family dynasties. Indeed, because Vietnam’s graft is more centralized, the government sometimes is able to overcome corruption within the Party, whereas in the freer Philippines a more decentralized kind of corruption is much harder to combat from Manila. Finally, Vietnam appears to have more clearly studied government responses to past major disasters in Asia, including the 2004 tsunami and the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan. This might seem somewhat surprising, given that Vietnam’s leaders are in many respects suspicious of interactions with other countries and highly opaque in how they run their government. Yet below the senior leadership, Vietnam boasts a relatively (for the size of its economy) qualified group of civil servants and diplomats, particularly in areas that are not politically sensitive, like disaster management. Although the Philippines does have some fine civil servants, particularly in prestigious jobs like the foreign ministry, the overall quality of the civil service is poor, in part because Filipinos with top-quality educations, which includes fluency in English, have more opportunities in the domestic private sector and overseas than educated Vietnamese.

Blog Post by Joshua Kurlantzick November 18, 2013 Asia Unbound
China

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of November 15, 2013

Sharone Tobias and Will Piekos look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. China announces sweeping reforms. A wide range of reforms were announced following China’s third plenum of the Eighteenth Party Congress, with many commentators surprised by the scope of President Xi Jinping’s reform campaign. Though they are too expansive to go into detail here, issues that were tackled included: relaxation of the one-child policy, abolishment of the re-education through labor system, state-owned enterprise reform, interest rate and currency regime liberalization, and establishment of an economic reform working group and a new State Security Council. 2. Typhoon kills thousands in the Philippines. The Philippine government’s official web site reported 3,631 confirmed casualties from Typhoon Haiyan on Thursday, though the United Nations has raised the death toll to 4,460. The main casualties were residents of the city of Tacloban in central Philippines, where many complained of a lack of logistics support, manpower, and supplies. There have also been widespread accounts of looting. 3. China increases aid to devastated Philippines. China announced on Thursday that it is increasing its humanitarian assistance to the Philippines to $1.6 million after it was criticized for only offering $100,000—the new amount is still less than that ($2.7 million) donated by Swedish furniture company Ikea. Many believe that the small donation was a political statement related to the two countries’ territorial disputes in the South China Sea. By contrast, the United States is sending $20 million, Japan is providing $10 million in aid, and Indonesia is giving $2 million. The United States and Japan are also sending troops, naval vessels, and aircraft to aid the in the cleanup and assistance efforts. 4. Court order throws off Maldivian elections. A third attempt at presidential elections was derailed by a court order this week, pushing elections back to November 16. The two leading candidates for the Maldivian presidency, Mohamed Nasheed and Abdulla Yameen, will face off in a runoff election. Mr. Nasheed is expected to win, and his supporters believe the courts, which are loyal to Mr. Yameen’s half-brother (who ruled the Maldives for thirty years), are stalling. The opposition was also upset that the sitting president, Mohammed Waheed Hassan, did not leave office when his term expired; instead, he plans to wait until the runoff election. 5. Caroline Kennedy takes up post in Tokyo. The new U.S. ambassador to Japan arrived in Tokyo on Friday—she is the first woman to serve in the post. Her appointment was widely acclaimed in Japan, as she has the ear of President Obama and comes from a political family familiar to many. Bonus: Batman bin Suparman jailed in Singapore. A young man with the curious name Batman bin Suparman has been jailed on drugs and theft charges in Singapore. Suparman is a not-unheard-of surname in Indonesia; the prefix Su- is often found at the beginning of surnames in Java. Batman, however, is not an Indonesian name at all—it seems the man’s parents simply had an interesting sense of humor. Correction: a previous version of this post stated that China had donated $1.6 billion in aid, while Ikea provided $2.7 billion. The correct amounts are $1.6 million and $2.7 million, respectively.

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound November 15, 2013 Asia Unbound
Global

Disaster Preparedness & Relief: Three Things to Know

Typhoon Haiyan has raised international awareness about the capabilities and limitations of preparing for natural disasters and relief, says CFR’s Stewart Patrick.

Explainer Video with Stewart M. Patrick November 14, 2013
Corruption

Typhoon Haiyan

In the wake of one of the most powerful storms ever to hit Southeast Asia, Typhoon Haiyan, the Philippines is counting its dead and assessing the massive damage to infrastructure from the storm, particularly in Leyte province. The scope of the devastation in Leyte was, on Sunday, being compared by some disaster specialists to the destruction wrought by the 2004 Asian tsunami, which completely leveled parts of Aceh in Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia, like the Thai coast around Phuket. The typhoon was more powerful than most, but the Philippines has, sadly, become used to this type of devastation: the country is right in the path of the most dangerous Asian typhoons, and was hit by another deadly storm only a few weeks ago. The Philippines suffers from bad luck, and as one of the poorest countries in East Asia, it could not be expected to have the storm warning systems and storm-safe infrastructure of countries like Japan or Singapore. Still, the horrific quality of infrastructure in the Philippines—even worse than countries in the region with similar levels of economic development—certainly has made these storms deadlier. Because the Philippines is one of the most unequal and corrupt countries in Asia, funds for housing projects, roads, and seawalls and other public monies routinely vanish into the pockets of political dynasties; before the typhoon the country was riveted by a high-profile case involving massive slush funds amassed by several prominent politicians. Several news reports about Typhoon Haiyan already have noted that the horrendous, ramshackle nature of storm protection and houses in Leyte contributed to the high death toll and property damage. Although President Benigno Aquino has made some inroads into fighting corruption, his administration still faces an uphill battle, and many areas, including Leyte, remain dominated by patronage networks and a few political clans. The continuing feudalism has made it hard to attract investment in infrastructure, and the country certainly has not helped the cause of infrastructure upgrading by alienating China, whose state-owned companies have been busily building infrastructure for most other countries in Southeast Asia. The most recent high-profile corruption scandal appears to have catalyzed middle-class Filipino sentiment, potentially leading to the type of public outcry against corruption that could actually turn the country’s political course. In the terrible aftermath of Typhoon Haiyan, public pressure to reduce graft in construction projects, and to focus more intensely on upgrading infrastructure, would be at least one positive outcome.

Blog Post by Joshua Kurlantzick November 11, 2013 Asia Unbound
Philippines

Philippines Standoff Actually Rebellion’s Last Gasp

Over the past two weeks, a rebel group in the Muslim-majority southern Philippines, which long has been plagued by numerous insurgencies/bandits, has essentially laid siege to the southern city of Zamboanga, taking numerous hostages and sparking a protracted response from the Armed Forces of the Philippines. The rebels, who came from the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) group, had at one point taken more than one hundred hostages, and the fighting between the MNLF and the army has now killed nearly 120 people and displaced over 100,000 Filipinos. The siege has attracted significant international media attention, because the fighting has forced so many to flee, and the rebels have made whole residential areas free-fire zones, hiding among civilians and taking seemingly as many hostages as possible. The current violence has been brutal and actually started some four weeks ago, when a group of fighters loyal to former MNLF leader Nur Misuari began launching attacks. The MNLF actually had signed a peace agreement with Manila in 1996, and Misuari had become regional governor of part of the southern Philippines, but his misrule as governor eventually led even many of his own followers to push him out of office, and sharply curtailed the popularity of the MNLF, now part of the southern government, among southerners. Some MNLF fighters stuck to the peace deal; others, including Misuari, took up arms again, as the MNLF argued with the government over the implementation of the peace deal, including how to share the proceeds of mining in the south, how former MNLF fighters would be employed, and other issues. But the sad brutality of the siege, made worse by the Philippines’ military’s scorched earth tactics (Human Rights Watch chronicles abuses on both sides here), does not mean that the southern insurgency is gaining ground. In contrast to southern Thailand, where the insurgency has gained adherents and caused increasing casualties over the past decade, overall the fighting in the southern Philippines, which has gone on since the MNLF was founded in the late 1960s and early 1970s, actually has been winding down. Although southerners retain intense grievances at being a permanent minority in the Catholic-dominated Philippines, and having little representation at the highest levels of government, the south has begun to develop in recent years, after being granted some degree of economic, cultural, and political autonomy. Indeed, most people in the southern Philippines have grown tired of insurgency, and the government of President Benigno Aquino III has bypassed the MNLF holdouts and conducted effective peace negotiations with the insurgent leaders willing to work on a final status agreement that would hammer out all major issues relating to the future of the south. In fact, Aquino, who has personally overseen the peace process, investing his credibility in it, is close to signing a permanent peace deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, another southern insurgent group that, in recent years, has become more powerful and more popular than the MNLF, which bungling its attempt to govern part of the south. Given the MNLF’s waning power, and Aquino’s effective peace negotiations, the Zamboanga siege, then, though tragic, should not be viewed as the eruption of new waves of violence in the southern Philippines. The fighting is unlikely to lead to more, similar attacks, or to attract young southerners and lead them to form their own, new insurgent cells, as has occurred in southern Thailand in recent years. In reality, the siege of Zamboanga is a desperate attempt by the MNLF splinter group to show that, in the face of Aquino’s peace negotiations, and of the rival MILF’s growing power in the south (after the peace deal is concluded, former MILF leaders well could be governing much of the south), parts of the MNLF, including Nur Misuari (who is 71 years old), still have some clout. The Zamboanga fighting, indeed, is a last stand.

Blog Post by Joshua Kurlantzick September 23, 2013 Asia Unbound
China

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of September 20, 2013

Will Piekos and Sharone Tobias look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. Chinese President wraps up trip to Central Asia. President Xi Jinping ended a ten-day trip to Central Asia with a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) last weekend. Xi signed a number of bilateral economic and energy deals with countries in the region, and the SCO reached consensus on a number of foreign policy issues (largely in line with Chinese and Russian interests). With the U.S. withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2014, Central Asia is a region ripe for Chinese leadership. 2. Violence nears end in Philippines. After the breakdown of last week’s truce, fighting in the southern city of Zamboanga will soon be over as more Muslim rebels were forced to surrender on Friday. The rebels, part of the Moro National Liberation Front that is seeking an independent state, have dwindled to around fifty from the original 200. Still, they remain dangerous, and three were killed by a bomb planted inside a bus earlier today. 3. Abe orders all of Fukushima’s surviving reactors to shut down. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ordered all nuclear power plant reactors from the Fukushima Daiichi plant scrapped, rather than only four as previously announced. The decision comes as Japan is trying to reassure the Olympic Committee and the public about its safety after being awarded the opportunity to host the 2020 Summer Olympics. Tokyo won the title of host city for the Summer Olympic Games over Istanbul by a vote of sixty to thirty-six. Buenos Aires and Madrid were also contenders. 4. Shuttered Kaesong complex stirs back to life. Cars and trucks flooded across the border between North and South Korea early this week, as the Kaesong industrial park restarted operations after a 166-day hiatus. The complex was closed in April, when rising tensions triggered the North to withdraw its workers. It houses 123 South Korean factories and employs over 50,000 North Koreans; it is the last joint inter-Korean project and an important source of hard currency for Pyongyang. 5. Caroline Kennedy nears confirmation for ambassadorship to Japan. Caroline Kennedy was warmly received at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday. Lawmakers questioned her on issues ranging from tensions in the East China Sea, Japan’s trade relations with Iran, and recovery from the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Senator Tim Kaine noted that Kennedy’s father served in Japan during World War II, citing the fact as evidence of the family’s long history of representing the United States in the country. If confirmed, Kennedy will have to contend with policy issues such as increased tensions between China and Japan and implementing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Bonus: Muslims in Indonesia protest Miss World beauty pageant. Conservative Muslims have held protests against the Miss World beauty pageant, and some have promised violence. An estimated 6,000 have already booked flights and hotel rooms for the contest, scheduled to be held next week. It is likely that the contest will be held in Bali, a majority-Hindu island, instead. A Muslim-only beauty pageant, called World Muslimah, was held in Jakarta earlier this week. All contestants were required to wear head coverings, were judged on their knowledge of the Quran rather than conventional beauty, and the winner was awarded trips to Mecca and India.

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound September 20, 2013 Asia Unbound
China

China’s Maritime Disputes: Are There Any Real Solutions?

Over the past year, China’s disputes over the South China Sea, which had sharply divided Beijing from Southeast Asian claimants like the Philippines, Malaysia, and especially Vietnam, seems to have cooled somewhat. China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been working on a code of conduct to manage disputes over the Sea and reduce tensions before they flare up. But these are only short-term fixes. New President Xi Jinping clearly is more of a nationalist than his immediate predecessors, and more willing to openly support a growing Chinese military presence in disputed waters. He also seems more willing to deal out diplomatic snubs to leaders in the region who dare dispute China’s claims; in August Beijing abruptly withdrew an invitation for Philippines President Benigno Aquino III to a major trade show in China, after Aquino launched negotiations with the United States to increase the American military presence in the Philippines. Vietnamese and Philippine leaders also have become more willing to push their claims, and, in the case of the Philippines, to turn to the United States for major help. Meanwhile, China has proven totally unwilling to agree to any binding permanent solution to overlapping claims in the South China Sea. So, are there any real solutions to the South China Sea crisis and to China’s other potentially explosive maritime disputes? On CFR’s new interactive InfoGuide on China’s maritime disputes, you can find tons of information about the disputes, possible solutions, and the likelihood that these territorial disputes might lead to open conflict. Find the new interactive guide here.

Blog Post by Joshua Kurlantzick September 17, 2013 Asia Unbound
China

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of September 13, 2013

Will Piekos and Sharone Tobias look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. Chinese economy posts strong numbers. Chinese overseas shipments in August rose 7.2 percent from a year earlier, increasing more than originally estimated, while inflation stayed below the government target. The industrial sector also showed strong numbers in August, climbing 10.4 percent year-to-year and posting the highest growth rate since March 2012. The data, along with other positive reports, pushed stocks to a three-month high, and experts are generally optimistic about the direction of China’s economy. 2. North Korea might have restarted a nuclear reactor. Commercial satellite images from August 31 show two plumes of white steam rising from a turbine building next to the reactor, according to a report from the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. North Korea stated its intention to restart the reactor in the spring when tensions between the two Koreas were high; prior to that, the reactor had been inactive for six years. The reactor, which experts say does not effectively produce electricity, is capable of producing thirteen pounds of weapons-grade plutonium per year, enough for one or two bombs. 3. Bomb in Guilin, China, kills two, injures scores. A migrant worker upset that his child was unable to attend a local school detonated a bomb outside the school on Monday, killing himself and a woman next to him. Reports estimate about forty-five people were injured, including many students on their way to class. Migrant workers without the proper “hukou” household registration are not entitled to the same privileges and social services as urban residents; the issue has been trumpeted by Premier Li Keqiang as one of China’s most important reforms. 4. China to limit coal production, cars in an effort to curb pollution. The Chinese government unveiled an ambitious plan [Chinese] yesterday to reduce key indicators of air pollution by 25 percent in Beijing and the surrounding provinces by 2017. In January, air pollution in Beijing reached forty times the exposure limit recommended by the World Health Organization, and poor air quality is thought to have accounted for 1.2 million premature deaths in China in 2010. The new plan has been praised for its focus on regional coordination and binding air quality targets, but some experts say it does not do enough to reduce vehicle emissions. 5. Philippine army and separatist militants forge truce after five days of fighting. Around 200 members of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) swept into Zamboanga, a city of 800,000 in the southern island of Mindanao on Monday, taking 180 people hostage in an attempt to declare independence. A cease-fire was forged today between the two groups after at least eighteen were killed in skirmishes. The MNLF are an offshoot of the larger Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which was founded in the 1960s with the goal of establishing an autonomous Muslim region in the southern party of the country; the MNLF wants to create an independent nation. The insurgency has claimed more than 120,000 lives since its beginning. The clashes are one of the biggest challenges President Benigno Aquino III faces, and he has stated that he wants to solve the conflict by the end of his administration in 2016. Bonus: Tomb of China’s “female prime minister” has been discovered. Shangguan Wan’er, who lived from 664-710 CE, was a famous politician and poet who served empress Wu Zetian, China’s first female ruler. Her tomb, repeatedly ransacked, was found this week near an airport in Shaanxi province. She was killed in a palace coup, and her life inspired a TV series. Due to technical difficulties, we were unable to post until Saturday, September 14. We apologize for the delay.

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound September 14, 2013 Asia Unbound