Asia

Philippines

  • China
    Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of August 30, 2013
    Will Piekos and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. The SEC probes JPMorgan amid allegations that it hired Chinese princelings. The U.S. Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has begun an investigation into whether JPMorgan Chase hired the children of senior Chinese officials to help secure business in a now-defunct program called "Sons and Daughters." The scrutiny began in Hong Kong and now has spread through the bank’s Asia offices; the bank has flagged more than 200 hires for review. JPMorgan has not yet been accused of any illegal acts, but they might have violated the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which forbids granting personal favors to government officials in exchange for business. One example included the son of Tang Shuangning, chairman of a state-run financial conglomerate, who was hired and retained even after other employees questioned his financial expertise. 2. Chinese government begins massive campaign against online “rumormongering.” The Chinese government wants citizens to adhere to the “seven base lines” of proper internet conduct and curb “rumormongering” online. After the Beijing Internet Conference last week, the government released "seven base lines" for proper Internet conduct. State-run media has released a flurry of op-eds and run prime-time TV spots about the issue [links in Chinese]. Multiple people have been arrested for spreading rumors through microblogging accounts, and yesterday, twenty-seven people were arrested for operating 312 microblogging accounts with millions of followers [Chinese]. Xinhua also released an op-ed saying that government officials should not be exempt from anti-rumormongering laws, giving four examples of recent rumors spread by officials. 3. Filipino businesswoman at center of corruption scandal detained. Janet Lim-Napoles, a wealthy Manila businesswoman, was arrested for the "illegal detention" of a witness who claims she diverted billions of pesos from poverty-reduction programs for her personal gain. The money was allegedly diverted to lawmakers and their associates in a corruption scandal that has sparked protests in Manila; more than 700,000 gathered on Monday to demand tougher action. 4. North Korea rescinds invitation to U.S. envoy. Pyongyang cancelled its invitation to U.S. diplomat Robert King, ambassador for North Korean human rights issues, who planned to travel to Pyongyang on Saturday in hopes of securing the release of ailing American missionary Kenneth Bae. Bae has been held in North Korea since November of last year, when he was detained for committing "hostile acts." It is as yet unclear why Pyongyang cancelled the visit. 5. China opposes Syria strike. Official Chinese media and think tanks are warning strongly against Syrian strikes, insisting no action should be taken until a UN investigation determines the origin of the chemical attacks. China is a signatory to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons but is highly unlikely to support any international military action in Syria. China has quietly funded Bashar al-Assad’s military, supplying $300 million worth of arms between 2007 and 2010. Since the civil war began, the United States imposed sanctions on the China Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation for allegedly providing arms to the Syrian army. As a veto-holding member of the UN Security Council, any UN action taken in Syria would have to have China’s approval. China’s insistence on "non-interference" in other countries’ affairs, coupled with its previous trade with the Syrian military, means that this is highly unlikely to happen. Bonus: North Korea on "ice." A recently released study in the North Korea Review has brought attention to significant phenomenon: the common use of methamphetamine in North Korea. According to one researcher, 40 to 50 percent of the population are "seriously addicted" to "bingdu," or "ice." (This estimate is thought to be high, but the DPRK’s drug addiction has been documented before.)
  • China
    Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of August 9, 2013
    Sharone Tobias and Will Piekos look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. China fines milk formula companies. The Chinese government has fined six milk formula companies a total of $110 million for anti-competitive behavior and price fixing, the largest fine the Chinese government has ever instituted for violations of antitrust laws. Five of the companies are foreign, hailing from France, New Zealand, the Netherlands, and the United States, and one company is based in Hong Kong. The price of milk formula has risen 30 percent since 2008, when Chinese-made milk formula was linked to infant deaths and consumers rushed to buy foreign brands. Chinese state-run media has run multiple front-page articles about the case. Just days before, Fonterra, one of the companies fined by the government, recalled thirty-eight tons of contaminated whey protein used in baby formula, another scare in China’s food safety crisis. 2. China releases promising trade numbers. China’s July trade data revealed promising signs that China’s economy might be stabilizing after a six-month slowdown. Stronger-than-expected global demand for China’s exports—in particular from the United States and Europe, as well as Southeast Asia—also signaled improving global economic prospects, while increased imports in China suggested a strengthening domestic economy. The trade numbers improve China’s chances of achieving this year’s target for economic growth of 7.5 percent, already China’s lowest in decades. 3. Japan lodges protest with China over island dispute. Japan has summoned a China envoy to protest an unusually long visit by Chinese coast guard vessels to waters close to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea. Chinese ships have been encroaching upon territorial waters on a near-daily basis, but those visits usually last only a few hours; the latest visit lasted twenty-eight hours. The small, uninhabited islands have been a source of dispute for decades, and tensions reignited in September when the Japanese government nationalized the islands. 4. Thirty Muslim Rohingya escape Thai jail. Thirty Rohingya asylum seekers escaped jail in southern Thailand where they were being held, along with 1,700 others, for illegally crossing the border. The Rohingya are a Muslim minority from Myanmar who have been the target of ethnically-charged attacks by Buddhists in the country. 5. Taiwan lifts economic sanctions against the Philippines. The Taiwanese government has ended a three month-long freeze on trade with the Philippines, in effect ever since an incident on May 9 that left one Taiwanese fisherman dead. The Philippine government apologized to the family of the fisherman killed and has said it will bring murder charges against the eight coast guard personnel who shot at the man. In China, the "Walking Dead" get thirsty too. Han, a Chinese drink vendor, faked his death at the hands of China’s chengguan, an unarmed, semi-official enforcement force, hoping to gain compensation for the his death. Angry that the chengguan were forcing drink vendors to move their stands and were confiscating their merchandise, Han and his accomplices pretended he had been killed; their plan fell apart when Han, suffering under a sheet for two hours while he was "dead," was caught drinking a bottle of water.
  • Trade
    Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of May 17, 2013
    Sharone Tobias and Will Piekos look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. Tensions between Taiwan, Philippines escalate. The Philippine navy opened fire on a Taiwanese fishing vessel last week in disputed waters, killing one man on board and igniting a new round of tensions in the South China Sea. Though Philippine officials (including the president) have expressed their sympathies, Taiwan has rejected these apologies as lacking “sincerity.”  In response, Taipei recalled its envoy to the Philippines, announced a hiring freeze of Filipino workers, and held military drills. Yesterday, the Philippine envoy to Taiwan advised thousands of Filipino workers not to leave their homes. The incident and the heavy-handed response by Taiwan will likely dim prospects of cooperation between the two neighbors in solving territorial disputes in the South China Sea. 2. Chinese journalist’s scoop leads to sacked top official. Liu Tienan, deputy director of China’s National Development and Reform Commission, was dismissed for corruption this week. Journalist Luo Changping published an online report five months ago of Liu’s off-the-books business deals, threats to kill his mistress, and fabricated academic qualifications. A China Daily editorial mentioned that this is the first time an official at the ministerial level has been investigated under the new administration, and it is the highest-level dismissal amid a crackdown on corruption under Xi Jinping. 3. Four East Asian nations granted permanent observer status in Arctic Council. In addition to Italy and India, China, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan were accepted as permanent observers in the Arctic Council. They will observe the eight Arctic member nations who debate and establish rules for the Arctic, as melting ice opens the area to political and economic competition. Chinese statements generally have been diplomatic, and a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman states that China recognizes Arctic countries’ sovereignty, rights, and jurisdiction in the area. The melting ice has made abundant supplies of oil, natural gas, and minerals far more accessible and have shorten shipping routes for trade and fishing, an economic opportunity these countries do not want to pass up. 4. EU prepares probe into Chinese telecom firms. The European Union (EU) has warned that it is prepared to open an anti-dumping and an anti-subsidy investigation of Chinese telecommunication firms such as Huawei and ZTE. The EU will not act immediately in hopes that the two sides can come to some agreement, but China’s reaction does not bode well for a deal: a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that China would take “assertive” measures to “defend our lawful interests and rights” according to World Trade Organization rules and Chinese laws. The inquiry would be the first initiated by the European Commission itself without a complaint by European companies. 5. Thousands protest petrochemical plant in Kunming. Traffic was shut down on Saturday as over 2,500 citizens marched in Kunming in southwestern China to protest construction of a new petrochemical plant. China National Petroleum Company is planning on building an oil refinery eighteen miles from Kunming’s city center, which would produce 500,000 tons of the chemical paraxylene, a carcinogen, annually. The protest was peaceful and seems to have been somewhat successful—Kunming mayor Li Wenrong sympathized with the protestors and promised immediate change, though did not specify as to what that change might be. This protest is one of a growing number that seem to force local governments to reconsider large-scale polluting investment projects. Bonus: Massive counterfeit condom factories busted in China. Police in central and eastern China busted multiple factories producing fake condoms, seizing supplies worth nearly $8 million. Counterfeit condoms cost roughly $0.03 to produce and were sold for one yuan, or around $0.16.
  • Asia
    2013’s Biggest Surprise? The Philippines
    In an excellent overview of the political and economic changes that occurred in the Philippines in 2012, the Financial Times this week discussed how the country, long the “sick man” economy of Southeast Asia, is primed for a significant take off, putting it in a much higher class of fast-growing economies, like Indonesia, India, China, and others. The paper rightly gives credit to the president, Benigno Aquino III, for overseeing new investments in infrastructure, taking a personal interest in—and reaching—a real peace deal with rebels in the south, taking on the Catholic church to make birth control more accessible in one of the most devoutly Catholic nations in the world, and targeting high-profile corruption cases. To be honest, like many Southeast Asia analysts, I did not expect very much from the Aquino administration, and his policies—and his willingness and ability to enact them—have come as a major surprise. Though well-liked before becoming president, Aquino seemed like a relatively aimless inheritor of his famed family name, having few signature issues or legislative attempts to his name in politics previously. He is, by far, the biggest shock of any Southeast Asian leader that has come in the past five years, even more so than the political competency of Yingluck Shinawatra in Thailand. In 2013, the outlook for the Philippines is, if anything, brighter. With the peace deal in the south, the area can finally reach its economic potential, while the increased access to birth control should help the population stabilize and result in a smaller but more effective workforce, and force less Filipinos to head abroad to find work, as has happened for decades. The growing confidence in the country’s domestic investors —the Financial Times cites the Ayala Group plowing some $2 billion in the Philippines in 2012—is bound to eventually also help spark greater foreign investment, though the country’s old image still hinders it. Still, South Korean, Chinese, Indian, and some Western Information Technology firms already have seen the potential. 2013 looks very strong for the archipelago.
  • Thailand
    Thailand’s Secessionist Muslim Insurgency Escalates
    Over the past six months, the insurgency in southern Thailand, which seemed to be cooling off late last year, has once again heated up. Incidents of daily violence are up, and the insurgents are using increasingly sophisticated bombing and gunning techniques. The recent ceasefire deal in the southern Philippines between Manila and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front has shifted attention to the south Thailand insurgency, yet the prospect of change in the Thai south looks remote. In a new piece in The National, I analyze the prospects for the Thai south. Read the whole piece here.
  • Asia
    Philippines Signs Framework Deal With Muslim Rebels
    On Sunday in Asia, the Philippine government reportedly signed a preliminary peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), according to the Associated Press and other services in Manila. If this deal is successful, it would end an insurgency that has raged in the south for decades, and which at times has seemed impossible to shut down —the rebels and various Philippine governments have been negotiating over a potential ceasefire and peace deal for more than fifteen years. In between negotiations, various governments would step up the military’s attacks on the MILF, and for a period in the 2000s, any peace seemed hopeless. According to the AP and other sources, some 120,000 people have died in the fighting in the Philippines’s south, and the violence also has seriously hindered economic growth in the south. But there are reasons to believe that this time, the peace is for real. For one, the Philippine armed forces increasingly realize that they have other threats to focus on, namely China —a threat for which they are woefully unprepared, as reflected by the horrendous state of the Philippine navy, which has been exposed in the current crisis over the South China Sea. Secondly, the agreement offers people in the south more than previous negotiations, promising them a potential Muslim autonomous region in the south that would be better governed, and less likely to descend into a mafia state than previous efforts at autonomy. Third, President Benigno Aquino III seems to enjoy more genuine trust from rebel leaders, and people in the south, than previous presidents dating back to Joseph Estrada. Finally, this proposed peace deal, by creating the possibility for real economic development, offers the chance to reduce inequality in the south, and reduce the anger among poorer Muslim groups in the south against the generally wealthier Christian minority in Mindanao.
  • China
    A New Twist on Chinese Foreign Policy: Beijing Mixing Business with Politics?
    One of the cardinal rules of Chinese diplomacy is that China doesn’t mix business with politics. The precept fits in nicely with the primacy that China places on sovereignty, respecting the right of a country—or at least the leaders of the moment—to determine how things ought to work. And, of course, it also provides Beijing with the opportunity to rationalize its lack of enthusiasm for tough foreign policy action in places such as Iran, Syria, Sudan, or Zimbabwe as a matter of principle. Of course, as I have written elsewhere, doing business in any country—particularly when you supply a country with arms as Beijing has done in both Sudan and Zimbabwe—is in fact mixing business with politics. And the ongoing competition between Beijing and Taipei to purchase diplomatic relations with small, often poor, states is nothing if not the blatant mixing of business with politics. So on the face of it, the claim is rather silly. Moreover, there have been more subtle cases in the past—such as when Beijing postponed a purchase of Airbus planes after then-President Sarkozy agreed to meet with the Dalai Lama in 2008 and its rare earth export slowdown to Japan in the wake of the East China Sea dispute in 2010, to name a few—that suggest Beijing has not been unwilling to exert a bit of economic leverage to punish a perceived political transgression. In fact, it appears that Beijing’s willingness to mix business with politics is increasingly an open secret.  In the midst of China’s dispute with the Philippines over control of a shoal in the South China Sea, Beijing has called on Chinese travel agencies to suspend tours to the Philippines. There have also been some fruit shipments blocked from the Philippines to China, although this problem apparently began before the standoff in the South China Sea. A similar theme is playing out this month across a couple of oceans. The state-supported Global Times has called for Beijing to suspend some economic cooperation with the United Kingdom in retaliation for Prime Minister David Cameron meeting with the Dalai Lama. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has chimed in by saying that the meeting “Seriously interfered with China’s internal affairs, undermined China’s core interests, and hurt the feelings of the Chinese people.” And of course, Tokyo felt Beijing’s political sting when it hosted the World Uyghur Congress, an exile group opposed to China’s policies in Xinjiang that is considered by Beijing to be a terrorist organization. Beijing cancelled a meeting between Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and Hiromasa Yonekura, the Chairman of the Japanese business group Keidanren, to demonstrate its displeasure with Tokyo. Despite Beijing’s massive economic weight, however, its efforts to throw that weight around are unlikely to succeed. The problem for Beijing, as I see it, is three-fold. First, on the rare occasion that anyone listens to China’s protestations and does what Beijing wants, it seems that Beijing doesn’t then return the favor. (See, for example, President Obama postponing a meeting with the Dalai Lama before his trip to Beijing in 2009, and China’s ungenerous treatment of the U.S. president in return.) Once countries see that China takes without giving back, no one will want to give any more. Second, it is very difficult to use economic leverage to get other states to adopt your interests as their own when they really don’t want to. Here Beijing can look to the United States for instruction. At a recent meeting I attended, when a senior Myanmar/Burmese official was asked whether the U.S. sanctions had any impact on the country’s decision to transition to democracy and open the economy, the official said—rather unsurprisingly, I think—that they really hadn’t, because the sanctions had been around for years. Third, Beijing may simply be in danger of overestimating its economic leverage. In the case of the Philippines, for example, even though China is the Philippines’ third largest trading partner, the Chinese are not among the top three tourist groups visiting the Philippines and Filipino Tourism Secretary Ramon Jimenez Jr. seems unfazed by China’s pullout. He has simply suggested that the Philippines will look to Japan and other “traditionally stronger markets” to make up the difference. China has long mixed business with politics in a most unattractive fashion; it just hasn’t been willing to admit it. Will it make a difference if Beijing finally fesses up? My guess is that greater honesty won’t make much of a difference outside China, where everyone is pretty well aware of the gap between Chinese rhetoric and Chinese actions on the ground. The opportunity rests within China itself. If China’s leaders can take the first step to acknowledge honestly what it is they are doing, they may be able to take the second step and realize that what they are doing is not, in fact, yielding what they want. That, at least, might put them a step ahead of the United States, where we are still waiting for Cuba to see the error of its ways.
  • China
    China-Philippines Hacking War: A Missed Opportunity for Beijing?
    China continues to raise the heat in its dispute with the Philippines over the sovereignty of Scarborough Shoal/Huangyan Island. On Monday, He Jia, an anchor on China’s state-run CCTV, mistakenly declared that "China has unquestionable sovereignty over the Philippines" rather than just over the disputed island. On Tuesday, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying warned a Philippine diplomat that China was fully prepared to do anything to respond to escalation. Deep-water drilling has begun near islands in the South China Sea and Chinese travel agencies have reportedly suspended tours to the Philippines. Chinese netizens are fully in support of the claims, and have in many instances criticized the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for not taking more assertive action. As with previous territorial disputes in East Asia these days (see China-Vietnam, China-Japan, and Korea-Japan), the political, diplomatic, and military maneuvering has a cyber component. On April 20, Chinese hackers attacked the website of the University of the Philippines. The next day, Filipino hackers struck back with the defacement of Chinese websites. On the 23rd and 24th, the two sides again traded tit-for-tat attacks (a very useful timeline up until April 30 can be found here). Attacks have continued over the last week; today attackers pasted the Chinese flag on the website of the Philippines News Agency. From almost the beginning of the attacks, the Philippines government has called for both sides to stop. On April 22, a Philippines government spokesperson said, “We call on citizens, including ours, to exercise civil temperance.” On April 25, the Philippines’ Department of Science and Technology and Information and Communications Technology Office declared that the attacks were neither sanctioned nor condoned, and on May 10 a spokesman went further in warning that such attacks "will not benefit anyone and could possibly lead to bigger problems in the future for the Philippines and China and escalate the already tense situation at Panatag Shoal (Scarborough Shoal)." This is not a misplaced worry as freelance attacks could make it much more difficult for the two sides to communicate and signal intentions. Unfortunately, there has been silence from Beijing on the issue. China’s leaders seem to be embracing the conflict, or at least the prospect of conflict, as a welcome distraction from the problems of Chen Guangcheng and Bo Xilai. As Michael Yip and Craig Weber argue, the Chinese government – after years of enrolling students in patriotic education that stresses a history of national humiliation – needs to align itself with and divert away from nationalistic responses to real and perceived slights. Political hacking acts as a diversion–venting resentment away from the regime, focusing web users’ ire on outside actors, and maintaining the government’s nationalistic credentials. When China’s Minister of Defense General Liang Guanglie was at the Pentagon this week, he talked about how China wanted to work to improve cybersecurity. Beijing could gain a great deal of credibility by doing what the Philippines has done: call on both sides to stop the attacks.
  • South China Sea
    Armed Clash in the South China Sea
    In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update. Introduction The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is significant. China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines have competing territorial and jurisdictional claims, particularly over rights to exploit the region's possibly extensive reserves of oil and gas. Freedom of navigation in the region is also a contentious issue, especially between the United States and China over the right of U.S. military vessels to operate in China's two-hundred-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). These tensions are shaping—and being shaped by—rising apprehensions about the growth of China's military power and its regional intentions. China has embarked on a substantial modernization of its maritime paramilitary forces as well as naval capabilities to enforce its sovereignty and jurisdiction claims by force if necessary. At the same time, it is developing capabilities that would put U.S. forces in the region at risk in a conflict, thus potentially denying access to the U.S. Navy in the western Pacific. Given the growing importance of the U.S.-China relationship, and the Asia-Pacific region more generally, to the global economy, the United States has a major interest in preventing any one of the various disputes in the South China Sea from escalating militarily. The Contingencies Of the many conceivable contingencies involving an armed clash in the South China Sea, three especially threaten U.S. interests and could potentially prompt the United States to use force. The most likely and dangerous contingency is a clash stemming from U.S. military operations within China's EEZ that provokes an armed Chinese response. The United States holds that nothing in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) or state practice negates the right of military forces of all nations to conduct military activities in EEZs without coastal state notice or consent. China insists that reconnaissance activities undertaken without prior notification and without permission of the coastal state violate Chinese domestic law and international law. China routinely intercepts U.S. reconnaissance flights conducted in its EEZ and periodically does so in aggressive ways that increase the risk of an accident similar to the April 2001 collision of a U.S. EP-3 reconnaissance plane and a Chinese F-8 fighter jet near Hainan Island. A comparable maritime incident could be triggered by Chinese vessels harassing a U.S. Navy surveillance ship operating in its EEZ, such as occurred in the 2009 incidents involving the USNS Impeccable and the USNS Victorious. The large growth of Chinese submarines has also increased the danger of an incident, such as when a Chinese submarine collided with a U.S. destroyer's towed sonar array in June 2009. Since neither U.S. reconnaissance aircraft nor ocean surveillance vessels are armed, the United States might respond to dangerous behavior by Chinese planes or ships by dispatching armed escorts. A miscalculation or misunderstanding could then result in a deadly exchange of fire, leading to further military escalation and precipitating a major political crisis. Rising U.S.-China mistrust and intensifying bilateral strategic competition would likely make managing such a crisis more difficult. A second contingency involves conflict between China and the Philippines over natural gas deposits, especially in the disputed area of Reed Bank, located eighty nautical miles from Palawan. Oil survey ships operating in Reed Bank under contract have increasingly been harassed by Chinese vessels. Reportedly, the United Kingdom-based Forum Energy plans to start drilling for gas in Reed Bank this year, which could provoke an aggressive Chinese response. Forum Energy is only one of fifteen exploration contracts that Manila intends to offer over the next few years for offshore exploration near Palawan Island. Reed Bank is a red line for the Philippines, so this contingency could quickly escalate to violence if China intervened to halt the drilling. The United States could be drawn into a China-Philippines conflict because of its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines. The treaty states, "Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific Area on either of the Parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes." American officials insist that Washington does not take sides in the territorial dispute in the South China Sea and refuse to comment on how the United States might respond to Chinese aggression in contested waters. Nevertheless, an apparent gap exists between American views of U.S. obligations and Manila's expectations. In mid-June 2011, a Filipino presidential spokesperson stated that in the event of armed conflict with China, Manila expected the United States would come to its aid. Statements by senior U.S. officials may have inadvertently led Manila to conclude that the United States would provide military assistance if China attacked Filipino forces in the disputed Spratly Islands. With improving political and military ties between Manila and Washington, including a pending agreement to expand U.S. access to Filipino ports and airfields to refuel and service its warships and planes, the United States would have a great deal at stake in a China-Philippines contingency. Failure to respond would not only set back U.S. relations with the Philippines but would also potentially undermine U.S. credibility in the region with its allies and partners more broadly. A U.S. decision to dispatch naval ships to the area, however, would risk a U.S.-China naval confrontation. Disputes between China and Vietnam over seismic surveys or drilling for oil and gas could also trigger an armed clash for a third contingency. China has harassed PetroVietnam oil survey ships in the past that were searching for oil and gas deposits in Vietnam's EEZ. In 2011, Hanoi accused China of deliberately severing the cables of an oil and gas survey vessel in two separate instances. Although the Vietnamese did not respond with force, they did not back down and Hanoi pledged to continue its efforts to exploit new fields despite warnings from Beijing. Budding U.S.-Vietnam relations could embolden Hanoi to be more confrontational with China on the South China Sea issue. The United States could be drawn into a conflict between China and Vietnam, though that is less likely than a clash between China and the Philippines. In a scenario of Chinese provocation, the United States might opt to dispatch naval vessels to the area to signal its interest in regional peace and stability. Vietnam, and possibly other nations, could also request U.S. assistance in such circumstances. Should the United States become involved, subsequent actions by China or a miscalculation among the forces present could result in exchange of fire. In another possible scenario, an attack by China on vessels or rigs operated by an American company exploring or drilling for hydrocarbons could quickly involve the United States, especially if American lives were endangered or lost. ExxonMobil has plans to conduct exploratory drilling off Vietnam, making this an existential danger. In the short term, however, the likelihood of this third contingency occurring is relatively low given the recent thaw in Sino-Vietnamese relations. In October 2011, China and Vietnam signed an agreement outlining principles for resolving maritime issues. The effectiveness of this agreement remains to be seen, but for now tensions appear to be defused. Warning Indicators Strategic warning signals that indicate heightened risk of conflict include political decisions and statements by senior officials, official and unofficial media reports, and logistical changes and equipment modifications. In the contingencies described above, strategic warning indicators could include heightened rhetoric from all or some disputants regarding their territorial and strategic interests. For example, China may explicitly refer to the South China Sea as a core interest; in 2010 Beijing hinted this was the case but subsequently backed away from the assertion. Beijing might also warn that it cannot "stand idly by" as countries nibble away at Chinese territory, a formulation that in the past has often signaled willingness to use force. Commentaries and editorials in authoritative media outlets expressing China's bottom line and issuing ultimatums could also be a warning indicator. Tough language could also be used by senior People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers in meetings with their American counterparts. An increase in nationalistic rhetoric in nonauthoritative media and in Chinese blogs, even if not representing official Chinese policy, would nevertheless signal pressure on the Chinese leadership to defend Chinese interests. Similar warning indicators should be tracked in Vietnam and the Philippines that might signal a hardening of those countries' positions. Tactical warning signals that indicate heightened risk of a potential clash in a specific time and place include commercial notices and preparations, diplomatic and/or military statements warning another claimant to cease provocative activities or suffer the consequences, military exercises designed to intimidate another claimant, and ship movements to disputed areas. As for an impending incident regarding U.S. surveillance activities, statements and unusual preparations by the PLA might suggest a greater willingness to employ more aggressive means to intercept U.S. ships and aircraft. Implications for U.S. Interests The United States has significant political, security, and economic interests at stake if one of the contingencies should occur. Global rules and norms. The United States has important interests in the peaceful resolution of South China Sea disputes according to international law. With the exception of China, all the claimants of the South China Sea have attempted to justify their claims based on their coastlines and the provisions of UNCLOS. China, however, relies on a mix of historic rights and legal claims, while remaining deliberately ambiguous about the meaning of the "nine-dashed line" around the sea that is drawn on Chinese maps. Failure to uphold international law and norms could harm U.S. interests elsewhere in the region and beyond. Ensuring freedom of navigation is another critical interest of the United States and other regional states. Although China claims that it supports freedom of navigation, its insistence that foreign militaries seek advance permission to sail in its two-hundred-mile EEZ casts doubt on its stance. China's development of capabilities to deny American naval access to those waters in a conflict provides evidence of possible Chinese intentions to block freedom of navigation in specific contingencies. Alliance security and regional stability. U.S. allies and friends around the South China Sea look to the United States to maintain free trade, safe and secure sea lines of communication (SLOCs), and overall peace and stability in the region. Claimants and nonclaimants to land features and maritime waters in the South China Sea view the U.S. military presence as necessary to allow decision-making free of intimidation. If nations in the South China Sea lose confidence in the United States to serve as the principal regional security guarantor, they could embark on costly and potentially destabilizing arms buildups to compensate or, alternatively, become more accommodating to the demands of a powerful China. Neither would be in the U.S. interest. Failure to reassure allies of U.S. commitments in the region could also undermine U.S. security guarantees in the broader Asia-Pacific region, especially with Japan and South Korea. At the same time, however, the United States must avoid getting drawn into the territorial dispute—and possibly into a conflict—by regional nations who seek U.S. backing to legitimize their claims. Economic interests. Each year, $5.3 trillion of trade passes through the South China Sea; U.S. trade accounts for $1.2 trillion of this total. Should a crisis occur, the diversion of cargo ships to other routes would harm regional economies as a result of an increase in insurance rates and longer transits. Conflict of any scale in the South China Sea would hamper the claimants from benefiting from the South China's Sea's proven and potential riches. Cooperative relationship with China. The stakes and implications of any U.S.-China incident are far greater than in other scenarios. The United States has an abiding interest in preserving stability in the U.S.-China relationship so that it can continue to secure Beijing's cooperation on an expanding list of regional and global issues and more tightly integrate China into the prevailing international system. Preventive Options Efforts should continue to resolve the disputes over territorial sovereignty of the South China Sea's land features, rightful jurisdiction over the waters and seabed, and the legality of conducting military operations within a country's EEZ, but the likelihood of a breakthrough in any of these areas is slim in the near term. In the meantime, the United States should focus on lowering the risk of potential armed clashes arising from either miscalculation or unintended escalation of a dispute. There are several preventive options available to policymakers—in the United States and other nations—to avert a crisis and conflict in the South China Sea. These options are not mutually exclusive. Support U.S.-China Risk-Reduction Measures Operational safety measures and expanded naval cooperation between the United States and China can help to reduce the risk of an accident between ships and aircraft. The creation of the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) in 1988 was intended to establish "rules of the road" at sea similar to the U.S.-Soviet Incidents at Sea Agreement (INCSEA), but it has not been successful. Communication mechanisms can provide a means to defuse tensions in a crisis and prevent escalation. Political and military hotlines have been set up, though U.S. officials have low confidence that they would be utilized by their Chinese counterparts during a crisis. An additional hotline to manage maritime emergencies should be established at an operational level, along with a signed political agreement committing both sides to answer the phone in a crisis. Joint naval exercises to enhance the ability of the two sides to cooperate in counter-piracy, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief operations could increase cooperation and help prevent a U.S.-China conflict. Bolster Capabilities of Regional Actors Steps could be taken to further enhance the capability of the Philippines military to defend its territorial and maritime claims and improve its indigenous domain awareness, which might deter China from taking aggressive action. Similarly, the United States could boost the maritime surveillance capabilities of Vietnam, enabling its military to more effectively pursue an anti-access and area-denial strategy. Such measures run the risk of emboldening the Philippines and Vietnam to more assertively challenge China and could raise those countries' expectations of U.S. assistance in a crisis. Encourage Settlement of the Sovereignty Dispute The United States could push for submission of territorial disputes to the International Court of Justice or the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea for settlement, or encourage an outside organization or mediator to be called upon to resolve the dispute. However, the prospect for success in these cases is slim given China's likely opposition to such options. Other options exist to resolve the sovereignty dispute that would be difficult, but not impossible, to negotiate. One such proposal, originally made by Mark Valencia, Jon Van Dyke, and Noel Ludwig in Sharing the Resources of the South China Sea, would establish "regional sovereignty" over the islands in the South China Sea among the six claimants, allowing them to collectively manage the islands, territorial seas, and airspace. Another option put forward by Peter Dutton of the Naval War College would emulate the resolution of the dispute over Svalbard, an island located between Norway and Greenland. The Treaty of Spitsbergen, signed in 1920, awarded primary sovereignty over Svarlbard to Norway but assigned resource-related rights to all signatories. This solution avoided conflict over resources and enabled advancement of scientific research. Applying this model to the South China Sea would likely entail giving sovereignty to China while permitting other countries to benefit from the resources. In the near term, at least, such a solution is unlikely to be accepted by the other claimants. Promote Regional Risk-Reduction Measures The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China agreed upon multilateral risk-reduction and confidence-building measures in the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), but have neither adhered to its provisions (for example, to resolve territorial and jurisdictional disputes without resorting to the threat or use of force) nor implemented its proposals to undertake cooperative trust-building activities. The resumption of negotiations between China and ASEAN after a hiatus of a decade holds out promise for reinvigorating cooperative activities under the DOC. Multilaterally, existing mechanisms and procedures already exist to promote operational safety among regional navies; a new arrangement is unnecessary. The United States, China, and all ASEAN members with the exception of Laos and Burma are members of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium (WPNS). Founded in 1988, WPNS brings regional naval leaders together biennially to discuss maritime security. In 2000, it produced the Code for Unalerted Encounters at Sea (CUES), which includes safety measures and procedures and means to facilitate communication when ships and aircraft make contact. There are also other mechanisms available such as the International Maritime Organization's Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGS) and the International Civil Aviation Organization's rules of the air. In addition, regional navies could cooperate in sea environment protection, scientific research at sea, search and rescue activities, and mitigation of damage caused by natural calamities. The creation of new dialogue mechanisms may also be worth consideration. A South China Sea Coast Guard Forum, modeled after the North Pacific Coast Guard Forum, which cooperates on a multitude of maritime security and legal issues, could enhance cooperation through information sharing and knowledge of best practices. The creation of a South China Sea information-sharing center would also provide a platform to improve awareness and communication between relevant parties. The information-sharing center could also serve as an accountability mechanism if states are required to document any incidents and present them to the center. Advocate Joint Development/Multilateral Economic Cooperation Resource cooperation is another preventive option that is underutilized by claimants in the South China Sea. Joint development of petroleum resources, for example, could reduce tensions between China and Vietnam, and between China and the Philippines, on issues related to energy security and access to hydrocarbon resources. Such development could be modeled on one of the many joint development arrangements that exist in the South and East China seas. Parties could also cooperate on increasing the use of alternative energy sources in order to reduce reliance on hydrocarbons. Shared concerns about declining fish stocks in the South China Sea suggest the utility of cooperation to promote conservation and sustainable development. Establishing a joint fisheries committee among claimants could prove useful. Fishing agreements between China and its neighbors are already in place that could be expanded into disputed areas to encourage greater cooperation. Clearly Convey U.S. Commitments The United States should avoid inadvertently encouraging the claimants to engage in confrontational behavior. For example, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's reference in November 2011 to the South China Sea as the West Philippine Sea could have unintended consequences such as emboldening Manila to antagonize China rather than it seeking to peacefully settle their differences. Mitigating Options If preventive options fail to avert a crisis from developing, policymakers have several options available to mitigate the potential negative effects. Defusing a U.S.-China Incident The history of crisis management in U.S.-China relations suggests that leaders in both countries go to great lengths to prevent a crisis from escalating to military conflict. Nevertheless, pre-crisis steps could be taken to limit the harmful consequences of a confrontation. Political agreements could be reached that would increase the possibility that communication mechanisms in place would be employed in a crisis. Steps should be taken to enhance operational safety at sea between U.S. and Chinese ships. Confidence-building measures should also be implemented to build trust and promote cooperation. Mitigating a Regional Crisis with China Dispatching air and naval forces to the immediate vicinity of an armed clash to defend U.S. interests and deter further escalation should always be considered an option. Such actions, however, must be balanced against the possibility that they will produce the opposite effect, encouraging an even stronger response from China and causing further escalation of a confrontation. A less risky option would be to threaten nonmilitary consequences—diplomatic and economic sanctions––to force China to back off and deter further military action. But here again such measures may only inflame hostilities and escalate the crisis. It is also doubtful in any case whether such measures would be supported by many in the region given China's economic importance. Several less provocative responses might contain a budding crisis while avoiding further escalation. One option for the United States would be to encourage a mediated dialogue between involved parties. However, while Southeast Asian states may welcome a neutral mediator, China would probably oppose it. Thus, such an effort would likely fail. Direct communication between military officials can be effective in de-escalating a crisis. States involved should establish communication mechanisms, include provisions for both scheduled and short-notice emergency meetings, and mandate consultation during a crisis. Emergency meetings would focus on addressing the specific provocative action that brought about the crisis. Operational hotlines, including phone lines and radio frequencies with clear protocols and points of contact, should also be set up. To be effective, hotlines should be set up and used prior to a crisis, though even then there is no guarantee that they will be used by both sides if a crisis erupts. China and Vietnam have already agreed to establish a hotline; this could be a model for other states in the region and China. The goal would not be to resolve underlying issues, but to contain tensions in the event of a minor skirmish and prevent escalation. Recommendations Against the background of rebalancing U.S. assets and attention toward the Asia-Pacific region, the United States should takes steps to prevent a conflict in the South China Sea and to defuse a crisis should one take place. Although the possibility of a major military conflict is low, the potential for a violent clash in the South China Sea in the near future is high, given past behavior of states in the region and the growing stakes. Therefore, both U.S. and regional policymakers should seek to create mechanisms to build trust, prevent conflict, and avoid escalation. First, the United States should ratify UNCLOS; though it voluntarily adheres to its principles and the Obama administration has made a commitment to ratify the convention, the fact that the United States has not yet ratified the treaty lends credence to the perception that it only abides by international conventions when doing so aligns with its national interests. Ratifying UNCLOS would put this speculation to rest. It would also bolster the U.S. position in favor of rules-based behavior, give the United States a seat at the table when UNCLOS signatories discuss such issues as EEZ rights, and generally advance U.S. economic and strategic interests. Second, nations with navies active in the South China Sea—including the United States, China, Vietnam, and the Philippines—should better utilize the CUES safety measures and procedures to mitigate uncertainty and improve communication in the event of a maritime incident. Under current arrangements, observing CUES procedures is voluntary. Participating countries should consider making compliance compulsory in order to guarantee standardized procedures. Countries should also engage in multilateral and bilateral maritime exercises to practice these procedures in a controlled environment before a contingency unfolds. Third, the United States should make clear its support for risk-reduction measures and confidence-building measures among claimants in the South China Sea. The United States should continue to voice its support for full implementation of the China-ASEAN DOC and subsequent agreement on a binding code of conduct. Beijing needs a favorable regional security environment and therefore has important incentives to work out a modus vivendi with its neighbors, but will not likely do so absent pressure. Agreement on a binding code of conduct will require unity among all members of ASEAN and strong backing from the United States. In the meantime, cooperation should be further developed through expanded ship visits, bilateral and multilateral exercise, and enhanced counter-piracy cooperation. In addition, cooperation on energy and fisheries should be further promoted. Fourth, the creation of new dialogue mechanisms—such as a South China Sea Coast Guard Forum, an information-sharing center, and a joint fisheries committee—would provide greater opportunity for affected parties to communicate directly and offer opportunities for greater coordination. Fifth, the United States should review its surveillance and reconnaissance activities in the air and waters bordering China's twelve-mile territorial sea and assess the feasibility of reducing their frequency or conducting the operations at a greater distance. Any modification of U.S. close-in surveillance and reconnaissance activities requires assessment of whether those sources are uniquely valuable or other intelligence collection platforms can provide sufficient information about Chinese military developments. The United States should not take such a step unilaterally; it should seek to obtain a concession from Beijing in return lest China interpret the action as evidence of U.S. decline and weakness. Sixth, the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement process should be made effective or abandoned. There is a pressing need for the United States and China to agree on operational safety rules to minimize the possibility of a conflict in the years ahead. A more formal "incidents at sea" agreement should be considered. Seventh, Washington should clarify in its respective dialogues with Manila and Hanoi the extent of the United States' obligations and commitments as well as the limits of likely U.S. involvement in future disputes. Clarity is necessary both to avoid a scenario in which regional actors are emboldened to aggressively confront China and to avert a setback to U.S. relations with regional nations due to perceptions of unfulfilled expectations.
  • China
    U.S.-Philippines Relations Benefit From China’s Poor Public Image
    Today’s Washington Post has a useful article outlining the plans for a much greater U.S. military presence in the Philippines. The article discusses all of the potential options being put on the table between U.S. and Philippines officials: “Operating Navy ships from the Philippines, deploying troops on a rotational basis and staging more frequent joint exercises.” The piece examines the Philippines’ desire for a renewed American presence in response to graver perceived threats from China. After all, don’t forget that the Philippines tossed U.S. forces out of their bases in the Philippines in the early 1990s during the administration of Fidel Ramos; In fact, since U.S. occupation a century ago, the Philippines has had a very up and down relationship with the former colonial power. Certainly the Philippines’ inability to defend itself in the face of Chinese assertiveness over the South China Sea is a major part of the renewed desire for an American presence. The Philippines’ navy is virtually nonexistent in many parts of the country’s waters, so it could hardly be called upon to defend anything against China. But just as important as the strategic reasons for the renewed U.S. presence, I think, is the deteriorating public image of China in the Philippines, as compared to just a few years ago – and particularly, the deteriorating public image on the Philippine left, which includes some of the same people who, back in the 1980s and early 1990s, pushed for the U.S. military to leave the country. Five or six years ago, during trips to the Philippines, I found many opinion leaders saw in China’s rise a potential counterweight to the U.S. presence, and also an excellent new source of investment. But since then, allegations of graft in Chinese investments in the Philippines, and anger of alleged environmental and labor abuses at China-funded mining projects (which have been exhaustively detailed in the Philippines media) have seriously soured the public image of China in the Philippines. Now, activists, union leaders, and others on the left that I speak with condemn China, and, almost by default, have warmer feelings toward the U.S., and by extension, American investment.
  • Indonesia
    Asia’s Examples for the Middle East
    Anti-government protesters shout slogans during a protest demanding the ouster of Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh outside Sanaa University February 28, 2011. (Ammar Awad/Courtesy Reuters) In the midst of the unrest in the Middle East, many Arabs, and outside observers, are looking for models for the region’s transitions. One place to look is Asia’s democratic revolutions of the past two decades, from South Korea to Indonesia to the Philippines, the original home of “People Power.” Unfortunately, after the initial euphoria, many of these revolutions have gone sour; today, twenty-five years after overthrowing Ferdinand Marcos, the Philippines is technically a democracy, but it’s a weak, corrupt, and oligarchic one. I have a new CFR expert brief expanding on this topic. It is available here.
  • Philippines
    A Conversation with Benigno S. Aquino III
    Play
    DAVID BRADLEY: Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of the Council on Foreign Relations, I want to welcome President Benigno Aquino III. He's the 15th president of the Republic of the Philippines. He enters today his 86th day in office. This is his first overseas trip, officially. And we're privileged to have you here, Mr. President. My name is David Bradley. I'm the owner of the Atlantic, in Washington, D.C. Let me do the dispatching of the administrative details to start with. First, the order of service: I'm going to introduce the president, and the council has asked him if he would speak for about 15 minutes. Following that, we'll move directly to questions and answers. The president and I will sit up here. I'll lead off with five minutes or so of questions, and then we'll open up to everyone. Next administrative function: Those of you who are journalists, today's conversation is on the record. May I ask you all to turn off your cell phones and your BlackBerrys? And apparently, we need to ask you to actually turn them off, not move it to vibrate, as it interferes with the sound system if it's on vibrate. And then, a final administrative note -- this is a note of full disclosure: I'm worried you may find my questions of the president too benign or too mild for a journalist. I was a Fulbright scholar in the Philippines in my 20s, and it is easily one of my unsurpassed years. I have nothing but abashed great -- unabashed great feelings for the country. So I don't have a "Mike Wallace question" in me. (Laughter.) That's going to have to fall to all of you. So, I don't know that it is the greatest political narrative story in the world, but it is surely one of the greatest political narrative stories of the last hundred years: the rise of the Aquino family in Tarlac, Luzon, the Philippines. President Aquino's great-grandfather was a revolutionary general who fought in turn the Spanish and then the Americans. He was twice sentenced to death. President Aquino's grandfather, a more controversial figure, was imprisoned by the Americans. But it was the imprisonment of his father Ninoy Aquino that thrust the family name onto the world stage. Noynoy Aquino, as he is known -- as the president is known, was 12 years old when his father was taken by the Marcos government and charged with subversion and murder. He was 17 years old when the trial finally finished and his father was sentenced to death. He was 20 years old when, in a surprise visit, Imelda Marcos showed up at the prison, had Ninoy Aquino released and placed into exile in the United States. And now-President Aquino was 23 years old when his father famously boarded Chinese Air flight 811 to return to the Philippines in protest, and he was assassinated on the tarmac on deplaning. Everyone knows the whole -- story after that: the return of Cory Aquino to the Philippines, the election of 1986, which was stolen from her, the People Power Revolution that spilled out onto the streets of the highway, EDSA, that you'll all remember the television images of, and then the flight of the Marcos family, fleeing into the night aboard an American helicopter that had been sent from Clark Air Force Base. What you may not know is the letter that became famous in the Philippines during the last presidential campaign, the one that President Aquino just won. This was written in 1973 by an imprisoned Ninoy Aquino to his son Noynoy, who was 13 years old at the time. I'm just going to read you a portion of the letter. "My dear son, this afternoon I have arrived at my moment of truth. I've decided not to participate in the proceedings of the military commission assigned to take charges filed against me. "You are still too young to grasp the full impact of my decision. Briefly, by not participating in the proceedings, I will not be represented by counsel. I will not put up any defense. I expect to be sentenced to imprisonment for the rest of my natural life, or possibly to be sent to stand before a firing squad. "Forgive me for passing on to your young shoulders the great responsibilities of our family. I trust you will love your mother and your sisters, and lavish them with the care and protection I would have given them. "I had hopes of introducing you to my friends, showing you the world and guiding you through the maze of survival. I'm afraid you will not -- you will now have to go it alone, without your guide. "There's no greater nation on Earth than our motherland, no greater people than our own. Serve them with all your heart. Son, the ball is now in your hands. "Lovingly, Dad." This letter became a major piece of the campaign that just took place, especially that closing line, "Son, the ball is now in your hands." So running on a platform of attacking government corruption, President Aquino in a field of 10 candidates won 40 percent of the vote. It was 5 million votes more than the next candidate. By the time of his inauguration, which was the end of June, he had an 85 percent favorable rating in Philippine polls. That's the highest favorable rating in Philippine polling history. And Time magazine described him -- here I'm quoting -- as of "Gandhian simplicity and uprightness." For those of us who have trouble summoning an 85 percent approval rate in our nuclear families -- (laughter) -- this is as good as life ever becomes. I don't know how you can do better than your start in office, but it is a remarkable start. So join me in welcoming the president of the Philippines. (Applause.) PRESIDENT BENIGNO S. AQUINO III: Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Bradley, for those very inspiring words. It reminds me that my father's looking at us right now. And if I fail to live up to his expectations, I might wind up on the floor in a little while. (Soft laughter.) (Dr. Haass ?), distinguished members of the Council on Foreign Relations, members of my delegation, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Thank you for the warm welcome and kind introduction. I appreciate this great opportunity to engage you in a conversation about the Philippines. I am here to share with you the aspirations of close to 100 million Filipinos that I represent. Today, I took my oath -- my oath of office as president. I vowed to our people that I will dedicate my life to making our democracy reach its fullest potential, that of ensuring equal opportunity for all. In an essay he wrote in 1968 for Foreign Affairs, my father lamented, and I quote, "that the blessings of liberty have not included liberation from poverty, and that there are great disparities and chronic inequities of Philippine society." His words still remain true today. I was put into office by the people who believed in my idea that corruption is the root of poverty; that an end to corruption would mean an end to poverty. My government is ready to deliver on the second part of this pledge. We will channel any gains into the people through social services like education, health and conditional cash transfers that serve both as life vests for the poorest of the poor and incentives to ensure that they can move forward in life by getting educated and staying healthy. My government's mantra is to guarantee a more equitable distribution of our nation's resources. This can only be achieved through stronger economic growth, investments -- (very ?) needed in social services. But they are also necessary in infrastructure, utilities and job-generating enterprises. Given the scarce resources that we have, attracting foreign capital has become a vital component of my anti-poverty program. And I am here today to tell you that my government is doing what it takes to create a more investor-friendly environment. Part of my mandate is to curb corruption and streamline a cumbersome, graft-ridden bureaucracy, to put resources where they will provide the clearest results, and to untangle a complicated regulatory environment. The mission I have set out for myself is to lead by example, rally our people and unite them behind a common sense of purpose. It is imperative for us to work hand in glove and persevere in creating a just society for all. I have laid out the tenets that will mark the new Philippines: good governance, employment generation, quality education, improved public health, and a home for every family within safe communities. Even as we exert our best to create jobs at home, the immediate reality is that many of my compatriots continue to seek greener pastures abroad. This makes them vulnerable to human traffickers and illegal recruiters. We are thus doubling our efforts to bring the full force of the law against those who prey on the vulnerable. We have committed to restore integrity in leadership and governance. We will battle corruption, cut red tape and exact the highest standards of performance from our bureaucracy. The government must earn the full trust and confidence of its citizens. This trust and confidence is the motive force that would get them actively involved in building and rebuilding our nation. By empowering the people and nurturing democratic participation, we can truly bring about real reforms. Ladies and gentlemen, I came here to declare that the Philippines is open for business under new management. Today I invite you to take part in the transformation of the Philippines. We are striving in earnest to build a government where everything works and pursue programs for our economic take-off. The forging of private-public partnerships, or PPPs, would be our main engine in revving up our economy. We will enlist the participation of the private sector, both domestic and foreign, in big-ticket, capital-intensive infrastructure projects, while ensuring reasonable returns. We shall officially launch the PPPs this October. An initial list of 10 PPP projects worth $4.5 billion is already being developed. We look forward to the participation of the U.S. investors, specifically as we open up our infrastructure sector for foreign participation. There is no better time than now to bank on the Philippines and lay the groundwork for future long-term business and economic success. The global economic recovery, growth in international trade and overall as improved levels of confidence, have already borne fruit. In the first half of 2010, the Philippine economy showed robust growth of 7.8 percent and 7.9 percent. Full-year GDP growth will likely reach the upper end of the 5 to 6 percent -- percentile target. Perhaps, we hope, we can even reach higher. There was a return of the bulls to our local stock market. Trading has reached fever pitch, and foreign funds are streaming our way. There was a net inflow of $128 million in foreign direct investments in June of 2010, as compared to the previous month's net outflow. Since the end of June, when I was inaugurated president, 754.55 billion pesos in wealth was created, when measured by the increase in domestic market capitalization. For the first time, the Philippines was also able to raise $1 billion through the sale of a peso-denominated global bond. This bond issuance generated high investor interest from across the globe, from Asia, Europe and the United States. Financial analysts point to good governance and market-driven economic growth as the impetus for this investor confidence. Our doors are wide open for investors, particularly in tourism, business process outsourcing, mining, electronics, housing and agricultural sectors. Tourism is a crucial industry that could employ millions of Filipinos, skilled and unskilled alike, cross those 7,107 islands of the Philippines. (Coughs.) Excuse me. From the current projection of 3.3 million tourist arrivals in 2010, our aim is to eventually attract 6 million tourists. In the process, we expect to create 3 million jobs in the next six years. BPO continues to be a sunrise industry in the Philippines. From virtually nothing 10 years ago, this sector has grown into a $7.2 billion industry, employing 450,000 people. Today the Philippines has the second-biggest BPO industry in the world, next only to India, and growth forecast remains very encouraging on the long term. The Philippines has vast minerals that are still untapped. It has one of the world's largest deposits of gold, nickel, copper and chromite. Through responsible mining, we intend to generate more revenues from the extraction of these resources. If we succeed in getting the support of foreign and local investors for our PPP programs, we will have money to spend for the delivery of much-needed social services across the country. As we strengthen our economic infrastructure, we will also create the peaceful and stable environment necessary for economic growth. I offered -- (clears throat) -- excuse me -- I have offered a place at the table for everyone who wants to talk about peace, to unite our country and bring the disillusioned and the disenfranchised who have chosen the violent path back into our -- excuse me -- back into our democratic mainstream. My administration's compact with the Filipino people will demand no less than the attainment of lasting peace and equitable prosperity. We will employ all the tools at our disposal to achieve this. The Philippine relations with the United States are vital. The special ties that exist between us, our security allies and development partners serve as a steady anchor in American engagement towards the Asia-Pacific. The earlier, colonial patron-client relationship has evolved through the years into modern, mature and mutually beneficial relations. Our economic relations are robust. The United States is among our leading trade partners. It ranks as our largest export market and second-largest supplier. About 18 percent of total Philippine exports were bound for the U.S. and approximately 12 percent of our imports were sought from America last year. The U.S. has also been traditionally the Philippines' largest foreign investor, mostly in the manufacturing sector. We are now advocating for the passage of a bill pending in the U.S. Congress known as the Save our Industries Act, or the Save Act. If signed into law, it would give duty-free breaks for Philippine garment exports to the U.S. which were processed from U.S.-made fabrics. It will also give reduced tariffs on those that use U.S.-made yarns. This is a win-win proposition for both the U.S. and the Philippines. It will reinvigorate both the U.S. textile industry and our garments industry, and create jobs on both sides of the Pacific. During my visit here I particularly look forward to our signing of the Millennium Challenge compact agreement. This is a vote of confidence on our commitment to reduce poverty, generate revenues through our tough campaign against graft and corruption, and to modernize our infrastructure. As you may know, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, or MCC, awards grants only to countries which rule justly, promote economic freedom, and invest in their people. With keen interest we note the Obama administration's focus in negotiating a regional Asia-Pacific trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Envisioned as a platform for economic integration across the region, the TPP countries would be in the best place to become the region's leading hub for trade investment and growth. The Philippines aims to engage the U.S. in a joint trade initiative that would serve as mutual building blocks for our eventual participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Just like other ASEAN member states, the Philippines is already positioning itself as a viable member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. We seek U.S. support for this, as we recognize its leadership role as host of the APEC in 2011. In regional affairs, the Philippines has been a dynamic player, especially in ASEAN. From a small grouping of 10 nations, ASEAN has now emerged as the nucleus of regional dialogue and cooperation. The ASEAN charter was adopted in December 2008 that conferred leader status to the organization and laid down a clear road map towards building an ASEAN community by 2015. A Philippine initiative was the inclusion of a provision in the charter calling for the establishment of a human rights body called the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights. Still in its incipient stage, this body stands much to gain from U.S. partnership in capacity building. For its part, the Philippines stands by its offer to host its secretariat. On human rights protection and promotion, we look forward to greater cooperation with the U.S. as the Philippines, once again, endeavors to be the citadel for human rights, democracy and good governance in our own region. Right now the Philippines is a nexus for the ASEAN-U.S. relations as country coordinator. Fulfilling this mandate has been -- benefited by the renewed interest of the U.S. in Southeast Asia. President Obama's vow in 2009 to be a Pacific president generated excitement in our region. Prior to this, most countries in the region felt that they had become mere blips in the American radar screen as Washington, D.C., focused on the Middle East, particularly on Iraq. Perhaps the strongest signal of reengagement with Southeast Asia was the U.S.'s accession to the Southeast Asian Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. President Obama was also the first American president to meet with ASEAN leaders in the first ASEAN-U.S. summit in Singapore of last year. These augur well for a broadening and deepening of ASEAN-U.S. interactions at an accelerated pace. Our second ASEAN-U.S. summit tomorrow will reinforce this new era of ASEAN-U.S. relations. The U.S. is a major trading partner of ASEAN. ASEAN, in turn, has been one of the fastest-growing export markets and host of U.S. investments. The Philippines would like to see the enhanced implementation of the ASEAN-U.S. Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement. An economically viable and strong ASEAN facilitates stability and prosperity, and the TIFA is a vital tool for economic growth, job creation and improved welfare of our peoples. Connectivity has become another buzzword in ASEAN in past year. We expect the master plan on ASEAN connectivity to be ready by the ASEAN summit next month. Three key elements characterize our connectivity master plan: physical connectivity, referring to transport connectivity; institutional connectivity, referring to trade and investment liberalization; and people-to-people connectivity, referring to tourism, education and cultural exchange. You will note that these three elements of connectivity point to the economic, political, security and socio-cultural goals of ASEAN community building. Given its unique geographic locations, the Philippines in particular look forward to the development of a nautical highway to ensure that we remain connected to our neighbors in the region. Forging public-private partnerships will make the connectivity in ASEAN a reality, and we look forward to the strong support of the U.S. for this initiative. At the ASEAN ministerial meeting and ASEAN regional forum in Hanoi last July, the South China Sea issue was discussed. The Philippines welcomed State Secretary -- Secretary of State, rather -- Hillary Clinton's statement to the forum that, while the U.S. takes no sides in the dispute in the South China Sea, that claimant states should resolve their disputes through a collaborative diplomatic process and in accordance with international law. The Philippines and the U.S. share the need to maintain unimpeded maritime commerce and navigation. The Philippines believes that it is in the best interests of the region to transform this potential flash point into a zone of peace, friendship, freedom and cooperation through sustained consultation and dialogue. A most pressing phenomenon that confronts and threatens humankind today is climate change. The Philippines has a very negligible carbon footprint. It produces only one-third of 1 percent of the global greenhouse gases. Yet it is in the U.N.'s roster of top 12 countries most vulnerable to climate change. Two devastating typhoons hit us last year and damage to our crops and property was equivalent to 2.7 percent of our gross domestic product. That is why in climate change negotiations we have been calling for deep and early cuts in the greenhouse gas emissions of developed countries. We urge them to support the developing countries in terms of financing, technology transfer and capacity building for climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts as a form of restitution or climate justice. The Philippines has a renewable energy act. It is a legal framework for the harnessing of our renewable sources of energy, including foreign investments, and we invite U.S. involvement in this program. We also appreciate the USAID's promotion of clean energy technologies in the Philippines -- modest beginnings for our goals towards green growth and green economy. The world looks up to the U.S. leadership in climate-change negotiations and in putting in place an international framework on climate change. Still, within the auspices of the United Nations, the Philippines steered the crucial negotiations of the 2010 review conference of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty last May here in New York. As president of that conference, the Philippines helped revive the moribund NPT. It helped garner consensus towards a comprehensive approach to nuclear disarmament, nuclear nonproliferation, and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. After a month-long intensive negotiation, a 64-point action plan was adopted. This was both historic and unprecedented. More daunting challenges lie ahead. The Philippines and ASEAN will continue to stress the importance of the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone Treaty in preserving peace and security in the region. We strongly urge the nuclear-weapon states to accede to its protocol. We laud the U.S.'s own disarmament efforts. We are encouraged by the success of the U.S.-Russia START talks this year on the reduction of their nuclear arsenals. The holding of the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C., in April also provided a favorable environment for the success on the NPT review conference. This year is the International Year of Diversity. The Philippines hosts the ASEAN Center for Biodiversity, and is a founding member of the Coral Triangle Initiative, along with Indonesia, Malaysia, Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands -- a triangle which is home to 75 percent of all known coral species, 3,000 species of fish, including tuna and other marine resources. With a high level of biodiversity, the Philippines is among 18 mega-diverse countries. The Philippines is of the view that development and poverty alleviation are benefits derived from biodiversity. For this reason, the Philippines is committed to biodiversity conservation and to the attainment of the objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity. The most important role of the U.N. is the effective discharge of its peacekeeping function. The Philippines is proudly taking part in that role. We have sent more than 1,000 military and police personnel to most of the U.N. peacekeeping missions, specifically in Haiti; Darfur, Sudan; Timor Leste; Liberia and the Cote d'Ivoire. At the Golan Heights, the U.N. is preventing possible clashes between Israel and Syria. Leading the U.N. disengagement observer force is a Filipino general. A third of the U.N. force in the Golan Heights are Filipino peacekeepers. Peace in the Middle East is of prime importance to the Philippines, due to the presence of around 2 million of our countrymen working in that region. We note the commitment and personal leadership of President Obama in the Middle East peace process, and wish him success in this endeavor. We are satisfied that there is now a clear recognition of the interlocking linkage between peacekeeping and peacebuilding towards lasting peace, security and development. In closing, allow me to share with you President Obama's observation about the Philippines. He said, and I quote, "The Philippines punches above its weight in the international arena," close quote. Indeed, we have high aspirations in our foreign relations. We believe that in the increasingly globalized and interdependent world, national goals and objectives are served by partnerships and collaboration with friends abroad. Our engagements with the rest of the world will always be at the service of our aspiration to build a vibrant nation. Thank you for your patience, and good afternoon to all. (Applause.) Thank you. BRADLEY: Well, Mr. President, congratulations on your election. AQUINO: Thank you. BRADLEY: Let me start with a general question. Right after John Kennedy had been elected president, maybe a few months into his term, he was asked the question, so now you're president. How's the country different than you expected it to be? And Kennedy said, well, when we were campaigning we were talking about what terrible shape the United States was in. And he said, the large surprise, now that we're governing, is everything we said was true. (Laughter.) So roll back to when you were campaigning. And you had a privileged view of the state of the Philippines, but not the view that you now have. What do you know now that you didn't know when you became president? How's the country doing? AQUINO: Well, when we started out, during the campaign, we knew that we were in a bad shape. When we got into office, we realized that our estimate was on the optimistic side. (Scattered laughter.) BRADLEY: Mm-hmm. (In acknowledgement.) AQUINO: But the pleasant surprise is in spite. For instance, we were supposed to go work for half of the year in 2010. We were left to -- (inaudible) -- about 10 percent of the national budget to spend on the last half of the year. But the surprising thing is -- look at the numbers that you were quoting earlier, be it the stock market, be it the global (trust ?) bond offer -- very, very successful. But more importantly, our Department of Budget and Management has just informed us that through good governance, improved expenditures, we have actually had a surplus in the second half -- or the second month that we have been in office. That obviously was not expected. We were -- all our focus has been on controlling the deficit and making sure that our ratings with the various credit agencies will -- credit rating agencies -- will not suffer more, to make our borrowings even that much more expensive to cover deficits. But again, in the past month alone there has been so much good news, you know? Basically what we thought was the timetable for fixing all of our problems seems to be accelerating, and we hope to continue in that trend. And when I get back home, there's just really a mountain of good news that I'll be bringing back home to our people. BRADLEY: You mentioned the word "surplus." We in the United States don't know the meaning of that word. So afterwards maybe you could stay back with us and -- (laughter). You campaigned on a platform of attacking corruption. Give us a sense of just how big a problem this is. AQUINO: Okay, let me give you one concrete example. We were meeting with the World Bank, I think it was yesterday. They had funded a series of road projects, and they believed that there was collusion amongst the various contractors. There were favored contractors. And they subsequently banned, if memory serves me right, about 10 of these contractors from any World Bank-funded project. Now, the DPWH, our Department of Public Works and Highways, in control of these projects, subsequently banned the same, but they banned them only from projects that are World Bank-funded. So they were favored again for items apart from that budget. So without any investigations that exonerated them from the charges, they continued in their merry ways, making them that much favored. I'll give you another example. We had a fertilizer scam in 2004, discovered by a commission and audit in 2008. The project was meant to give farm inputs, be it seeds, be it fertilizers, et cetera, to assist all of our farmers and increase their incomes. Now, the fertilizers that were purchased were not appropriate for rice, they were exorbitantly overpriced, and at the end of the day most of it was never delivered. So the wrong fertilizer, that was charged at least 300 percent in most instances overpriced, was never even actually delivered. So our ombudsman, who is tasked with investigating instances of corruption, amongst other things, by government entities, proceeded to investigate that incident four years after it transpired. And in the process, one of the witnesses or maybe a vital witness to that had already died. So even at this stage, no charges have been proffered amongst government officials involved in that program. And in -- I think it was in 2005 that they had a repeat of this program and the scam nature of it, and perhaps in a slightly lower category. So this is -- and it goes up and down -- (chuckles) -- the chains of government. And that's precisely what we're trying to fight at this point in time. Now, that fills us also with a sense of urgency, because our judicial system also needs to be really reformed. We have on average about a 14 percent conviction rate, compared to your 80 percent here, compared to 95 percent in Japan. When it comes to cases involving drugs, it becomes even a worse situation: -- 1 percent of conviction. So there are a lot of criminals in our country who are not convinced that they will ever see a day in jail. So we are working tremendously on that, but the knowledge base was done in 2000, and in 2010 we have already taken steps, finally, to start addressing that problem. BRADLEY: In an earlier government, not your own, corruption ran all the way to the level of ministers. And presumably those governments were speaking -- weren't making attempts to limit corruption. What is your sense of what went wrong in the early attempts and what can you do here that's more rigorous than what's been done before? AQUINO: Well, first of all, the administration that we succeeded had a questioned mandate. The questioned mandate necessitated it favoring a lot of what they perceived as institutions that supported their continued stay in power. So you see it in the Maguindanao massacre; you see it in the delayed investigations of the ministers involved in the fertilizer scam. Bottom line is any decision that the previous administration had to do always had political considerations, okay? So in our case, we have -- we don't have to rely on the support pillars. We have the people that actually mounted the campaign, came up with all the paraphernalia, became our watchers and inspectors during the whole process of elections and all constantly are there reminding us of our functions as our main support pillar. So conscious of that, conscious of the fact that we have six years in which to effect all of the necessary changes, we think that we are not constrained by the same political realities of a person running for reelection. We are not constrained by owing just a few selected individuals the logistics for mounting the campaign. So we have therefore that freedom to try and please most, if not all, of the Filipinos in terms of delivering our promises for good governance. That frees us from all the usual obligations. That empowers us, in turn, to really go after and deliver -- (inaudible) -- for all of these people that have really done so much harm for our countrymen, and really fulfill our promises to those that aspired and joined us in this dream of really transforming our society. BRADLEY: Let me move to a different topic. It's hard to have a meeting at the Council on Foreign Relations without having the subject of the rise of China and the relative decline of the United States come up. How do you see China changing in its relations with the Philippines? How present is it? How significant is it? AQUINO: Well, they -- in terms of what we call the Greater China -- Taiwan, Hong Kong and the People's Republic, the mainland -- they are already -- (inaudible) -- trade, I understand, with the United States. BRADLEY: So they will be your number-one trading partner in a -- within a matter of a few years? AQUINO: If things go the same way as it has been. But they have engaged us in really being very friendly. When I was a kid, and whenever you'd think about mainland China and its leaders, they seemed to be aloof, you know? About that much distant, that unattainable. But their embassy, their ambassador has really been quite effective in doing away with that imagery. Again, let me reiterate it seems that they are really interested in forging very good relations with us, and that goes hand in hand also with our philosophy. They are, of course, a major superpower. We don't even have a single fighter jet in our air force, fighters as a warplane. We have trainers for it. Really, we are subscribing to the theory that there is prosperity for everybody; it would be in everybody's interest to actually continue the status quo, rather than have flash points that will lead to belligerency and possible altercations that we can't -- we have no hope of winning. BRADLEY: So is it fair to say that in conversations with your fellow ASEAN leaders there's not a particular concern about the way China is evolving? AQUINO: I've only had one conversation with my ASEAN counterparts, and I'll be in a series of them tomorrow. And I guess, though, I've spoken is that, you know, there is a brother in region, but he happens to be the biggest brother on the block, you know? (Laughter.) And we have -- we have competing interests in the Spratly Island groups. One has to -- hopefully, we don't have to hear the phrase "South China Sea" with reference to it being their sea. BRADLEY: Mmm. (In acknowledgement.) AQUINO: So far we have not had manifestations that they intend to push us around. But in case that happens, we have -- I think ASEAN has demonstrated that we would stand as a bloc. BRADLEY: Does the United States feel like it is gradually retreating from the region, or do you feel a greater and greater presence? AQUINO: In the past few weeks I think the presence of your ballistic missile submarines surfacing in so many ports around the Pacific -- Manila just had the visit by your aircraft carrier George Washington, if I'm not mistaken. So I think this president has reiterated we are still around, that we can count on the treaties that we have signed with your government for a very long time. And that also I think augurs well for maintaining cordial relations with each other. BRADLEY: Let me ask you one more question, then we'll open it up here. The insurgency in the south in this chapter has been going on since the 1970s. Give us the state of the union there. How many, you know, armed insurgents are there? Is it waxing; is it waning? AQUINO: Well, lately the primary Muslim secessionist group is the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. And the militia, who is a third party in negotiations with the MILF, has indicated intense support for resolving this issue in the shortest time possible. The foreign minister told me that they are focusing on efforts to try and do it within my term. And lately the MILF has really been trying to discipline its errant members. They've demonstrated that. We are also heartened by the fact that they have, in a sense, toned down their demand from the previous regime. When there were talks previously, they needed solutions that went beyond the ambit of our constitution. Now it seems that to a large degree it will be within the ambit of our constitution, but that makes it even easier to come to terms with them. So we are very hopeful. We have formed our negotiating panel. We have agreed on the head of the observer group. We -- and when I get home I expect to have -- to be told of the actual date of when the resumption of the peace talks will be. So if that happens, you would have groups like the Abu Sayyaf deprived of a friendly bases. They will become more and more marginalized and we will have more and more peace in Mindanao. Which, then, will cease to become the land of promise, and become the land of promises realized. BRADLEY: Let's open it up for questions. May I ask you to follow the Council protocol when we do this, which is to wait for the microphone so we can get it on the record, and then if you would keep your questions to one, and the finally, please identify yourself and your organization. QUESTIONER: I'm Lucy Komisar. I am a journalist. I speak as somebody who was in Manila during the People Power Revolution in 1986 and then wrote a book about your mother. It's one of the issues that made me get interested in the whole offshore corruption question, because people told me that Marcos had stolen -- looted the country and put his money in Switzerland. I'm wondering what you're doing to finally find this, because I understand that one of your agencies has done a report that showed how the money was moved to Liechtenstein and it knows where the money went, about the accounts. And then the investigation just seems to have stopped. Are you doing anything to find out what happened to what is probably billions of dollars that Marcos may have stolen and might now be hidden, because people afterwards got some of that (cash/cache ?)? AQUINO: My mother set up a commission called the Presidential Commission on Good Government. I think it was her first -- first order, the very first order of business. And in fairness, it has recovered somewhat in the neighborhoods of about $10 billion to date. Now, the problem starts with the fact that Mr. Marcos was probably the only person who knew where everything went. And so it's in -- (inaudible) -- depository countries. There were several properties in America and in various other countries. We have nominated new people to the Presidential Commission on Good Government. The last one had an advocacy only of coming to a splitting of the proceeds between the heirs of Mr. Marcos and government as its main proposal in resolving the issue. Again, we -- this new -- this new set of commissioners, headed by Dean Andy Bautista, we expect will accelerate the process of our regaining this lost wealth and the interests earned in roughly about 24 years of trying to get -- (inaudible). We don't guarantee perfect results, but intense efforts now will really be done towards recovery of the same. BRADLEY: Over here, please. QUESTIONER: Good morning. I'm Antonia Taquifa (ph). I'm currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University Weatherhead Station -- Weatherhead Center of East-West Relations. And my question is about industrial policy. For the -- for the past two decades, the Philippines has -- the biggest earner of the Philippines has been export labor. And more recently that has been augmented by the spread of call centers, so that what we have right now is actually the start of de-industrialization, according to a lot of, like, the best Philippine economists. I was wondering if your government has any real, like -- how do you plan to address the fact that there's a need to develop a domestic manufacturing sector, or do you have a plan for that? AQUINO: There is a plan, but unfortunately we -- (inaudible) -- everything so many (givens ?). Amongst them, power, electricity, in particular. The Philippines has one of the highest rates, sometimes equal to and sometimes greater than that of Japan. And that obviously is a serious hindrance towards revitalizing the manufacturing sector. That energy situation's being currently addressed. One of the -- one of the meetings I had with a business group had to deal with the provision of a new 600-megawatt facility in Luzon. There are others that we are -- we're trying to push them also in Mindanao. And once -- and there are various tweaks that will be done towards the whole pricing structure and the local -- (inaudible) -- electrical power industry called the P-NOC. Once all of those are in place we -- we will be bringing down the price of electricity, and hopefully that will -- that will be a boost to manufacturing efforts. Amongst -- and I'm kind of inhibited to tell you all of the companies that we've talked to so far and the rest of the (operations ?) we'll be talking to later. But manufacturing, the -- there are new investors who will be coming to manufacture various items. The campaign amongst our Phil-Ams here in America to join us in the campaign to lobby for the Safe Act will in time, four years or so, if it's successful, be able to get us back to the levels of those who were in the garment industry just a few years back. We're down to about 180,000 now from a peak of about 700 (thousand), 800,000 then. In four or five years we might get 580,000 back into the sector. And as you know, those will really induce further growth. So far the drivers for our economy have to really rely on the business processing outsourcing; tourism, to include medical tourism; agriculture; and mining. But of course my personal dream is to get back that manufacturing aspect. When you -- when you take a bath and the soap you use is imported from Thailand, amongst other countries, then you wonder how such a low-tech product can't be produced in your own country. So as I said, it's really coming from national pride. That has to also be readdressed. BRADLEY: Is there a question over here, please, in the orange? Yes. QUESTIONER: Thank you. I'm Minky Worden from Human Rights Watch. President Aquino, in your inaugural address you promised to attempt to bring justice for victims of serious human rights abuses, yet hundreds of extra-judicial killings and disappearances have so far gone unprosecuted, except for a handful. You mentioned that criminals may have a feeling that they will never see a jail cell, and I think some human rights abusers may have the same feeling. What's your government doing -- what steps is it taking to accelerate the process for justice and accountability? AQUINO: In the first -- accountability, the killings have been with a sense of security. Nobody will ever be brought before the bars of justice and that they can go on their merry way. But in the first three weeks of our administration there were six killings that could be characterized as extra-legal. Of the six, three of them have already been solved in the third week. And of that, charges have been proffered on all of these three cases. We have in custody several of the assailants. And may I add that we have a problem with the insurgency. One of them -- not one of these extra-legal killings is supposed to have been done -- and one of the supervisors, they advised the family of the deceased not to cooperate with government. But in spite of that, we did bring them -- (inaudible) -- and the process is undergoing trial. This is not a matter of state policy, especially under our regime. My father obviously is the reminder that this constant of what was done when a government set up by the people suddenly turns on the people. As I mentioned in my -- well, other -- (inaudible) -- I'm sorry. I have had so many meetings. I hope I mentioned the idea of judicial reform, though. And judicial reform really is the fourth plank in our platform. When you don't have really a sense of certainty of punishment, then your peace-and-order situation deteriorates. (Inaudible) -- I got the former chair of the commission on human rights to head their justice department. She is a very driven individual, and she can be counted upon to really deliver in securing all of the convictions necessary to put an end, or at the very least, to mete out the right punishment to people who have transgressed our laws. So when I talk to our security forces, I keep emphasizing there are greater demands on you, because you cannot deteriorate to the same level as those who are -- that have become outlaws or are outside the (street ?). This is a portion of winning the hearts and minds. It is an investment in ensuring that we deprive these insurgents from their base of support that the people will give them if we are not any different from those that we are fighting. So towards that end, you know, a parameter of appointment should always -- you know, for especially promotions, has to be an absence of a human rights abuse record in the appointment of various officers. BRADLEY: With the card up here. QUESTIONER: Welcome, Mr. President. I'm Jamie Metzl from the Asia Society. I think everybody, both within the Philippines and outside, is thrilled by your government's commitment to stamping out corruption, which is a scourge that has -- and the Philippines has suffered as a result. But many of us who are observers of the Philippines also at least observe that there are some deeply structural issues in the Philippines that at least fuel some of the inequality and injustice and also corruption. And foremost among those, it seems, is the maintenance of a at least semi-feudal structure of overall society in the Philippines that is something more akin to Pakistan than to maybe some of -- other countries across the region. And my question to you is do you accept that characterization of the Philippines, and if so, what is and can your government do to address these deeply structural issues? AQUINO: One of the current issues that has been brought up by the Philippine Senate has been our emphasis on conditional cash transfers in the budget. They say that these handouts are not the solution and we should go back to the traditional methods of having -- rely on trickle-down economics as the key towards uplifting the lot of our people. We are of the opinion that we have something like 4.6 million families severely under the poverty line. And if we are not able to help them get even the basics and also at the same time ensure that they keep their students in school and also receive the proper inoculations for monitoring various health conditions, they will forever be a drain on society and the problem just gets on getting worse rather than being solved. They cannot rely, I guess. And what I'm trying to say is -- you cannot rely on the traditional beliefs of the benefits of a growing economy eventually trickling down. So one might say that that might not be characteristic of a feudal setup, but rather a socialistic setup. And I've been called socialistic and communist at times in my life, you know? But again, it -- I think most of us subscribe to a -- pragmatically, because a lot of us are Christians, and we are responsible for our brothers. That's where it comes from. Now, we're -- how are we able to do that? Because there is a lot of interest in the private sector for major infrastructure projects so necessary that frees the budget for all of these social concerns. The emphasis on items that will empower the people -- micro finance, for instance; provision of more scholarships -- is, I think, proof that we do not want to maintain relationships or structures of institutions that say certain Filipinos have X rights and other Filipinos have X plus Y rights. We have gone after what were considered perhaps sacred cows in terms of our fight against tax evasion. One of the first -- the very first individual that -- so charged was -- did not find that -- posted returns that said he had no income for 12 years, but also managed to buy a Lamborghini vehicle in the same period, you know? (Scattered laughter.) Before, he was not even -- he was not even called to account for his actions. He was the first. Our Bureau of Internal Revenue files cases against these major tax evaders every other week. In between, the Bureau of Customs files cases against smugglers. So to date we have already filed at least several for -- against smugglers, several against tax evaders. Our biggest businessman (at home ?) received one promise from me during the campaign: We promise you that you will have a level playing field. When you are -- when President Marcos, I guess, started the crony capitalism issue, if there is one favorite, this entity does not become competitive. There's no inducement for him to become competitive. When we have to open up our doors to global trade, we could not compete because this guy has been subsidized and sheltered for such a long time. But we will promise you the government will help -- no, will assist you, becomes your partner, does not seek to make you a milking cow, but rather as a -- we'll provide the milieu whereby you can prosper and rise to the levels of your competitiveness. That in turn hopefully will be the long -- the parting of the seas for the long-term strategy of our ability to compete globally. So I cannot subscribe to the idea that we will retain our privileges for a select few and keep us moribund in a situation where there's no potential for growth. Thank you. BRADLEY: Someone right here. QUESTIONER: Hello, Mr. President. I'm Ken Roth, from Human Rights Watch. You spoke in your opening remarks about ASEAN as a vehicle for promoting democratic values. And I think it's safe to say that the most controversial member of ASEAN has been Burma. Now, ASEAN has been a tool for engaging with Burma, and that's not going to change. But your predecessors as president, including your mother, all recognized the need for pressure in addition to engagement. They were all quite outspoken about Burmese abuses. Today the new effort to ratchet up pressure is being introduced at the United Nations in an effort to create a commission of inquiry to look into the atrocities committed by the junta as a way of being clear that ASEAN and the world will not stand for those atrocities and to try to prevent them from spilling over into the future. Is that an effort that your government would support? AQUINO: Can I -- can I just speak on behalf of the Philippines? I just met with one of my counterparts. With respect to the plight now of Burma, especially personified by Aung San Suu Kyi, a person my mother admired and perhaps can identify with, has been -- has merited my support in various petitions, various resolutions when I was a member of the legislature. A few weeks ago, perhaps a month ago, I did talk to another ASEAN leader. And this guy is a freedom fighter, and he opened my eyes to the other side of the coin. And his premise went something like this: If the junta in Burma goes, you will have so many divergent groups, you will probably have an unstable country -- for the near future. His premise was this junta is, in a sense, the stabilizing part of that. That was the first time I ever really was introduced to that concept. I believe that any government that does not truly have the mandate of its people is actually just postponing the inevitable where conflict and national tensions will come to the forefront. And if there is instability in Burma, that affects the whole region. We will be compelled to assist in the case of people who flee, as in the case of Vietnam in the past where we became -- we became hosts for a whole lot of Vietnamese boat people. And it behooves us to really try and help them achieve stability and a resolution of all of these tensions where the mandate of the people is not really that clear. Towards that end, we will encourage all the other members of ASEAN to revisit this engagement policy, and we will ask what is the best method of dealing with a regime that basically tells the whole world we don't care what your opinion is. We recognize our limitations, but again, it will not stop us in trying to promote that which will bring the mandate of the people to the forefront. And be the key towards long-term stability, not only for Burma, but the rest of the region. BRADLEY: At the Atlantic, we have a term that we use for the kind of public speaking that comes at the very end of the meeting. We call it the Elizabeth Taylor School of Public Speaking. (Laughter.) So as Elizabeth said to each of her five successive husbands, I won't be keeping you long. (Laughter, applause.) You've honored us by coming today. Thank you very much. (C) COPYRIGHT 2010, FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC., 1000 VERMONT AVE. NW; 5TH FLOOR; WASHINGTON, DC - 20005, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ANY REPRODUCTION, REDISTRIBUTION OR RETRANSMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED. UNAUTHORIZED REPRODUCTION, REDISTRIBUTION OR RETRANSMISSION CONSTITUTES A MISAPPROPRIATION UNDER APPLICABLE UNFAIR COMPETITION LAW, AND FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC. RESERVES THE RIGHT TO PURSUE ALL REMEDIES AVAILABLE TO IT IN RESPECT TO SUCH MISAPPROPRIATION. FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC. IS A PRIVATE FIRM AND IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. NO COPYRIGHT IS CLAIMED AS TO ANY PART OF THE ORIGINAL WORK PREPARED BY A UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT OFFICER OR EMPLOYEE AS PART OF THAT PERSON'S OFFICIAL DUTIES. FOR INFORMATION ON SUBSCRIBING TO FNS, PLEASE CALL CARINA NYBERG AT 202-347-1400. THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. DAVID BRADLEY: Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of the Council on Foreign Relations, I want to welcome President Benigno Aquino III. He's the 15th president of the Republic of the Philippines. He enters today his 86th day in office. This is his first overseas trip, officially. And we're privileged to have you here, Mr. President. My name is David Bradley. I'm the owner of the Atlantic, in Washington, D.C. Let me do the dispatching of the administrative details to start with. First, the order of service: I'm going to introduce the president, and the council has asked him if he would speak for about 15 minutes. Following that, we'll move directly to questions and answers. The president and I will sit up here. I'll lead off with five minutes or so of questions, and then we'll open up to everyone. Next administrative function: Those of you who are journalists, today's conversation is on the record. May I ask you all to turn off your cell phones and your BlackBerrys? And apparently, we need to ask you to actually turn them off, not move it to vibrate, as it interferes with the sound system if it's on vibrate. And then, a final administrative note -- this is a note of full disclosure: I'm worried you may find my questions of the president too benign or too mild for a journalist. I was a Fulbright scholar in the Philippines in my 20s, and it is easily one of my unsurpassed years. I have nothing but abashed great -- unabashed great feelings for the country. So I don't have a "Mike Wallace question" in me. (Laughter.) That's going to have to fall to all of you. So, I don't know that it is the greatest political narrative story in the world, but it is surely one of the greatest political narrative stories of the last hundred years: the rise of the Aquino family in Tarlac, Luzon, the Philippines. President Aquino's great-grandfather was a revolutionary general who fought in turn the Spanish and then the Americans. He was twice sentenced to death. President Aquino's grandfather, a more controversial figure, was imprisoned by the Americans. But it was the imprisonment of his father Ninoy Aquino that thrust the family name onto the world stage. Noynoy Aquino, as he is known -- as the president is known, was 12 years old when his father was taken by the Marcos government and charged with subversion and murder. He was 17 years old when the trial finally finished and his father was sentenced to death. He was 20 years old when, in a surprise visit, Imelda Marcos showed up at the prison, had Ninoy Aquino released and placed into exile in the United States. And now-President Aquino was 23 years old when his father famously boarded Chinese Air flight 811 to return to the Philippines in protest, and he was assassinated on the tarmac on deplaning. Everyone knows the whole -- story after that: the return of Cory Aquino to the Philippines, the election of 1986, which was stolen from her, the People Power Revolution that spilled out onto the streets of the highway, EDSA, that you'll all remember the television images of, and then the flight of the Marcos family, fleeing into the night aboard an American helicopter that had been sent from Clark Air Force Base. What you may not know is the letter that became famous in the Philippines during the last presidential campaign, the one that President Aquino just won. This was written in 1973 by an imprisoned Ninoy Aquino to his son Noynoy, who was 13 years old at the time. I'm just going to read you a portion of the letter. "My dear son, this afternoon I have arrived at my moment of truth. I've decided not to participate in the proceedings of the military commission assigned to take charges filed against me. "You are still too young to grasp the full impact of my decision. Briefly, by not participating in the proceedings, I will not be represented by counsel. I will not put up any defense. I expect to be sentenced to imprisonment for the rest of my natural life, or possibly to be sent to stand before a firing squad. "Forgive me for passing on to your young shoulders the great responsibilities of our family. I trust you will love your mother and your sisters, and lavish them with the care and protection I would have given them. "I had hopes of introducing you to my friends, showing you the world and guiding you through the maze of survival. I'm afraid you will not -- you will now have to go it alone, without your guide. "There's no greater nation on Earth than our motherland, no greater people than our own. Serve them with all your heart. Son, the ball is now in your hands. "Lovingly, Dad." This letter became a major piece of the campaign that just took place, especially that closing line, "Son, the ball is now in your hands." So running on a platform of attacking government corruption, President Aquino in a field of 10 candidates won 40 percent of the vote. It was 5 million votes more than the next candidate. By the time of his inauguration, which was the end of June, he had an 85 percent favorable rating in Philippine polls. That's the highest favorable rating in Philippine polling history. And Time magazine described him -- here I'm quoting -- as of "Gandhian simplicity and uprightness." For those of us who have trouble summoning an 85 percent approval rate in our nuclear families -- (laughter) -- this is as good as life ever becomes. I don't know how you can do better than your start in office, but it is a remarkable start. So join me in welcoming the president of the Philippines. (Applause.) PRESIDENT BENIGNO S. AQUINO III: Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Bradley, for those very inspiring words. It reminds me that my father's looking at us right now. And if I fail to live up to his expectations, I might wind up on the floor in a little while. (Soft laughter.) (Dr. Haass ?), distinguished members of the Council on Foreign Relations, members of my delegation, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Thank you for the warm welcome and kind introduction. I appreciate this great opportunity to engage you in a conversation about the Philippines. I am here to share with you the aspirations of close to 100 million Filipinos that I represent. Today, I took my oath -- my oath of office as president. I vowed to our people that I will dedicate my life to making our democracy reach its fullest potential, that of ensuring equal opportunity for all. In an essay he wrote in 1968 for Foreign Affairs, my father lamented, and I quote, "that the blessings of liberty have not included liberation from poverty, and that there are great disparities and chronic inequities of Philippine society." His words still remain true today. I was put into office by the people who believed in my idea that corruption is the root of poverty; that an end to corruption would mean an end to poverty. My government is ready to deliver on the second part of this pledge. We will channel any gains into the people through social services like education, health and conditional cash transfers that serve both as life vests for the poorest of the poor and incentives to ensure that they can move forward in life by getting educated and staying healthy. My government's mantra is to guarantee a more equitable distribution of our nation's resources. This can only be achieved through stronger economic growth, investments -- (very ?) needed in social services. But they are also necessary in infrastructure, utilities and job-generating enterprises. Given the scarce resources that we have, attracting foreign capital has become a vital component of my anti-poverty program. And I am here today to tell you that my government is doing what it takes to create a more investor-friendly environment. Part of my mandate is to curb corruption and streamline a cumbersome, graft-ridden bureaucracy, to put resources where they will provide the clearest results, and to untangle a complicated regulatory environment. The mission I have set out for myself is to lead by example, rally our people and unite them behind a common sense of purpose. It is imperative for us to work hand in glove and persevere in creating a just society for all. I have laid out the tenets that will mark the new Philippines: good governance, employment generation, quality education, improved public health, and a home for every family within safe communities. Even as we exert our best to create jobs at home, the immediate reality is that many of my compatriots continue to seek greener pastures abroad. This makes them vulnerable to human traffickers and illegal recruiters. We are thus doubling our efforts to bring the full force of the law against those who prey on the vulnerable. We have committed to restore integrity in leadership and governance. We will battle corruption, cut red tape and exact the highest standards of performance from our bureaucracy. The government must earn the full trust and confidence of its citizens. This trust and confidence is the motive force that would get them actively involved in building and rebuilding our nation. By empowering the people and nurturing democratic participation, we can truly bring about real reforms. Ladies and gentlemen, I came here to declare that the Philippines is open for business under new management. Today I invite you to take part in the transformation of the Philippines. We are striving in earnest to build a government where everything works and pursue programs for our economic take-off. The forging of private-public partnerships, or PPPs, would be our main engine in revving up our economy. We will enlist the participation of the private sector, both domestic and foreign, in big-ticket, capital-intensive infrastructure projects, while ensuring reasonable returns. We shall officially launch the PPPs this October. An initial list of 10 PPP projects worth $4.5 billion is already being developed. We look forward to the participation of the U.S. investors, specifically as we open up our infrastructure sector for foreign participation. There is no better time than now to bank on the Philippines and lay the groundwork for future long-term business and economic success. The global economic recovery, growth in international trade and overall as improved levels of confidence, have already borne fruit. In the first half of 2010, the Philippine economy showed robust growth of 7.8 percent and 7.9 percent. Full-year GDP growth will likely reach the upper end of the 5 to 6 percent -- percentile target. Perhaps, we hope, we can even reach higher. There was a return of the bulls to our local stock market. Trading has reached fever pitch, and foreign funds are streaming our way. There was a net inflow of $128 million in foreign direct investments in June of 2010, as compared to the previous month's net outflow. Since the end of June, when I was inaugurated president, 754.55 billion pesos in wealth was created, when measured by the increase in domestic market capitalization. For the first time, the Philippines was also able to raise $1 billion through the sale of a peso-denominated global bond. This bond issuance generated high investor interest from across the globe, from Asia, Europe and the United States. Financial analysts point to good governance and market-driven economic growth as the impetus for this investor confidence. Our doors are wide open for investors, particularly in tourism, business process outsourcing, mining, electronics, housing and agricultural sectors. Tourism is a crucial industry that could employ millions of Filipinos, skilled and unskilled alike, cross those 7,107 islands of the Philippines. (Coughs.) Excuse me. From the current projection of 3.3 million tourist arrivals in 2010, our aim is to eventually attract 6 million tourists. In the process, we expect to create 3 million jobs in the next six years. BPO continues to be a sunrise industry in the Philippines. From virtually nothing 10 years ago, this sector has grown into a $7.2 billion industry, employing 450,000 people. Today the Philippines has the second-biggest BPO industry in the world, next only to India, and growth forecast remains very encouraging on the long term. The Philippines has vast minerals that are still untapped. It has one of the world's largest deposits of gold, nickel, copper and chromite. Through responsible mining, we intend to generate more revenues from the extraction of these resources. If we succeed in getting the support of foreign and local investors for our PPP programs, we will have money to spend for the delivery of much-needed social services across the country. As we strengthen our economic infrastructure, we will also create the peaceful and stable environment necessary for economic growth. I offered -- (clears throat) -- excuse me -- I have offered a place at the table for everyone who wants to talk about peace, to unite our country and bring the disillusioned and the disenfranchised who have chosen the violent path back into our -- excuse me -- back into our democratic mainstream. My administration's compact with the Filipino people will demand no less than the attainment of lasting peace and equitable prosperity. We will employ all the tools at our disposal to achieve this. The Philippine relations with the United States are vital. The special ties that exist between us, our security allies and development partners serve as a steady anchor in American engagement towards the Asia-Pacific. The earlier, colonial patron-client relationship has evolved through the years into modern, mature and mutually beneficial relations. Our economic relations are robust. The United States is among our leading trade partners. It ranks as our largest export market and second-largest supplier. About 18 percent of total Philippine exports were bound for the U.S. and approximately 12 percent of our imports were sought from America last year. The U.S. has also been traditionally the Philippines' largest foreign investor, mostly in the manufacturing sector. We are now advocating for the passage of a bill pending in the U.S. Congress known as the Save our Industries Act, or the Save Act. If signed into law, it would give duty-free breaks for Philippine garment exports to the U.S. which were processed from U.S.-made fabrics. It will also give reduced tariffs on those that use U.S.-made yarns. This is a win-win proposition for both the U.S. and the Philippines. It will reinvigorate both the U.S. textile industry and our garments industry, and create jobs on both sides of the Pacific. During my visit here I particularly look forward to our signing of the Millennium Challenge compact agreement. This is a vote of confidence on our commitment to reduce poverty, generate revenues through our tough campaign against graft and corruption, and to modernize our infrastructure. As you may know, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, or MCC, awards grants only to countries which rule justly, promote economic freedom, and invest in their people. With keen interest we note the Obama administration's focus in negotiating a regional Asia-Pacific trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Envisioned as a platform for economic integration across the region, the TPP countries would be in the best place to become the region's leading hub for trade investment and growth. The Philippines aims to engage the U.S. in a joint trade initiative that would serve as mutual building blocks for our eventual participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Just like other ASEAN member states, the Philippines is already positioning itself as a viable member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. We seek U.S. support for this, as we recognize its leadership role as host of the APEC in 2011. In regional affairs, the Philippines has been a dynamic player, especially in ASEAN. From a small grouping of 10 nations, ASEAN has now emerged as the nucleus of regional dialogue and cooperation. The ASEAN charter was adopted in December 2008 that conferred leader status to the organization and laid down a clear road map towards building an ASEAN community by 2015. A Philippine initiative was the inclusion of a provision in the charter calling for the establishment of a human rights body called the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights. Still in its incipient stage, this body stands much to gain from U.S. partnership in capacity building. For its part, the Philippines stands by its offer to host its secretariat. On human rights protection and promotion, we look forward to greater cooperation with the U.S. as the Philippines, once again, endeavors to be the citadel for human rights, democracy and good governance in our own region. Right now the Philippines is a nexus for the ASEAN-U.S. relations as country coordinator. Fulfilling this mandate has been -- benefited by the renewed interest of the U.S. in Southeast Asia. President Obama's vow in 2009 to be a Pacific president generated excitement in our region. Prior to this, most countries in the region felt that they had become mere blips in the American radar screen as Washington, D.C., focused on the Middle East, particularly on Iraq. Perhaps the strongest signal of reengagement with Southeast Asia was the U.S.'s accession to the Southeast Asian Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. President Obama was also the first American president to meet with ASEAN leaders in the first ASEAN-U.S. summit in Singapore of last year. These augur well for a broadening and deepening of ASEAN-U.S. interactions at an accelerated pace. Our second ASEAN-U.S. summit tomorrow will reinforce this new era of ASEAN-U.S. relations. The U.S. is a major trading partner of ASEAN. ASEAN, in turn, has been one of the fastest-growing export markets and host of U.S. investments. The Philippines would like to see the enhanced implementation of the ASEAN-U.S. Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement. An economically viable and strong ASEAN facilitates stability and prosperity, and the TIFA is a vital tool for economic growth, job creation and improved welfare of our peoples. Connectivity has become another buzzword in ASEAN in past year. We expect the master plan on ASEAN connectivity to be ready by the ASEAN summit next month. Three key elements characterize our connectivity master plan: physical connectivity, referring to transport connectivity; institutional connectivity, referring to trade and investment liberalization; and people-to-people connectivity, referring to tourism, education and cultural exchange. You will note that these three elements of connectivity point to the economic, political, security and socio-cultural goals of ASEAN community building. Given its unique geographic locations, the Philippines in particular look forward to the development of a nautical highway to ensure that we remain connected to our neighbors in the region. Forging public-private partnerships will make the connectivity in ASEAN a reality, and we look forward to the strong support of the U.S. for this initiative. At the ASEAN ministerial meeting and ASEAN regional forum in Hanoi last July, the South China Sea issue was discussed. The Philippines welcomed State Secretary -- Secretary of State, rather -- Hillary Clinton's statement to the forum that, while the U.S. takes no sides in the dispute in the South China Sea, that claimant states should resolve their disputes through a collaborative diplomatic process and in accordance with international law. The Philippines and the U.S. share the need to maintain unimpeded maritime commerce and navigation. The Philippines believes that it is in the best interests of the region to transform this potential flash point into a zone of peace, friendship, freedom and cooperation through sustained consultation and dialogue. A most pressing phenomenon that confronts and threatens humankind today is climate change. The Philippines has a very negligible carbon footprint. It produces only one-third of 1 percent of the global greenhouse gases. Yet it is in the U.N.'s roster of top 12 countries most vulnerable to climate change. Two devastating typhoons hit us last year and damage to our crops and property was equivalent to 2.7 percent of our gross domestic product. That is why in climate change negotiations we have been calling for deep and early cuts in the greenhouse gas emissions of developed countries. We urge them to support the developing countries in terms of financing, technology transfer and capacity building for climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts as a form of restitution or climate justice. The Philippines has a renewable energy act. It is a legal framework for the harnessing of our renewable sources of energy, including foreign investments, and we invite U.S. involvement in this program. We also appreciate the USAID's promotion of clean energy technologies in the Philippines -- modest beginnings for our goals towards green growth and green economy. The world looks up to the U.S. leadership in climate-change negotiations and in putting in place an international framework on climate change. Still, within the auspices of the United Nations, the Philippines steered the crucial negotiations of the 2010 review conference of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty last May here in New York. As president of that conference, the Philippines helped revive the moribund NPT. It helped garner consensus towards a comprehensive approach to nuclear disarmament, nuclear nonproliferation, and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. After a month-long intensive negotiation, a 64-point action plan was adopted. This was both historic and unprecedented. More daunting challenges lie ahead. The Philippines and ASEAN will continue to stress the importance of the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone Treaty in preserving peace and security in the region. We strongly urge the nuclear-weapon states to accede to its protocol. We laud the U.S.'s own disarmament efforts. We are encouraged by the success of the U.S.-Russia START talks this year on the reduction of their nuclear arsenals. The holding of the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C., in April also provided a favorable environment for the success on the NPT review conference. This year is the International Year of Diversity. The Philippines hosts the ASEAN Center for Biodiversity, and is a founding member of the Coral Triangle Initiative, along with Indonesia, Malaysia, Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands -- a triangle which is home to 75 percent of all known coral species, 3,000 species of fish, including tuna and other marine resources. With a high level of biodiversity, the Philippines is among 18 mega-diverse countries. The Philippines is of the view that development and poverty alleviation are benefits derived from biodiversity. For this reason, the Philippines is committed to biodiversity conservation and to the attainment of the objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity. The most important role of the U.N. is the effective discharge of its peacekeeping function. The Philippines is proudly taking part in that role. We have sent more than 1,000 military and police personnel to most of the U.N. peacekeeping missions, specifically in Haiti; Darfur, Sudan; Timor Leste; Liberia and the Cote d'Ivoire. At the Golan Heights, the U.N. is preventing possible clashes between Israel and Syria. Leading the U.N. disengagement observer force is a Filipino general. A third of the U.N. force in the Golan Heights are Filipino peacekeepers. Peace in the Middle East is of prime importance to the Philippines, due to the presence of around 2 million of our countrymen working in that region. We note the commitment and personal leadership of President Obama in the Middle East peace process, and wish him success in this endeavor. We are satisfied that there is now a clear recognition of the interlocking linkage between peacekeeping and peacebuilding towards lasting peace, security and development. In closing, allow me to share with you President Obama's observation about the Philippines. He said, and I quote, "The Philippines punches above its weight in the international arena," close quote. Indeed, we have high aspirations in our foreign relations. We believe that in the increasingly globalized and interdependent world, national goals and objectives are served by partnerships and collaboration with friends abroad. Our engagements with the rest of the world will always be at the service of our aspiration to build a vibrant nation. Thank you for your patience, and good afternoon to all. (Applause.) Thank you. BRADLEY: Well, Mr. President, congratulations on your election. AQUINO: Thank you. BRADLEY: Let me start with a general question. Right after John Kennedy had been elected president, maybe a few months into his term, he was asked the question, so now you're president. How's the country different than you expected it to be? And Kennedy said, well, when we were campaigning we were talking about what terrible shape the United States was in. And he said, the large surprise, now that we're governing, is everything we said was true. (Laughter.) So roll back to when you were campaigning. And you had a privileged view of the state of the Philippines, but not the view that you now have. What do you know now that you didn't know when you became president? How's the country doing? AQUINO: Well, when we started out, during the campaign, we knew that we were in a bad shape. When we got into office, we realized that our estimate was on the optimistic side. (Scattered laughter.) BRADLEY: Mm-hmm. (In acknowledgement.) AQUINO: But the pleasant surprise is in spite. For instance, we were supposed to go work for half of the year in 2010. We were left to -- (inaudible) -- about 10 percent of the national budget to spend on the last half of the year. But the surprising thing is -- look at the numbers that you were quoting earlier, be it the stock market, be it the global (trust ?) bond offer -- very, very successful. But more importantly, our Department of Budget and Management has just informed us that through good governance, improved expenditures, we have actually had a surplus in the second half -- or the second month that we have been in office. That obviously was not expected. We were -- all our focus has been on controlling the deficit and making sure that our ratings with the various credit agencies will -- credit rating agencies -- will not suffer more, to make our borrowings even that much more expensive to cover deficits. But again, in the past month alone there has been so much good news, you know? Basically what we thought was the timetable for fixing all of our problems seems to be accelerating, and we hope to continue in that trend. And when I get back home, there's just really a mountain of good news that I'll be bringing back home to our people. BRADLEY: You mentioned the word "surplus." We in the United States don't know the meaning of that word. So afterwards maybe you could stay back with us and -- (laughter). You campaigned on a platform of attacking corruption. Give us a sense of just how big a problem this is. AQUINO: Okay, let me give you one concrete example. We were meeting with the World Bank, I think it was yesterday. They had funded a series of road projects, and they believed that there was collusion amongst the various contractors. There were favored contractors. And they subsequently banned, if memory serves me right, about 10 of these contractors from any World Bank-funded project. Now, the DPWH, our Department of Public Works and Highways, in control of these projects, subsequently banned the same, but they banned them only from projects that are World Bank-funded. So they were favored again for items apart from that budget. So without any investigations that exonerated them from the charges, they continued in their merry ways, making them that much favored. I'll give you another example. We had a fertilizer scam in 2004, discovered by a commission and audit in 2008. The project was meant to give farm inputs, be it seeds, be it fertilizers, et cetera, to assist all of our farmers and increase their incomes. Now, the fertilizers that were purchased were not appropriate for rice, they were exorbitantly overpriced, and at the end of the day most of it was never delivered. So the wrong fertilizer, that was charged at least 300 percent in most instances overpriced, was never even actually delivered. So our ombudsman, who is tasked with investigating instances of corruption, amongst other things, by government entities, proceeded to investigate that incident four years after it transpired. And in the process, one of the witnesses or maybe a vital witness to that had already died. So even at this stage, no charges have been proffered amongst government officials involved in that program. And in -- I think it was in 2005 that they had a repeat of this program and the scam nature of it, and perhaps in a slightly lower category. So this is -- and it goes up and down -- (chuckles) -- the chains of government. And that's precisely what we're trying to fight at this point in time. Now, that fills us also with a sense of urgency, because our judicial system also needs to be really reformed. We have on average about a 14 percent conviction rate, compared to your 80 percent here, compared to 95 percent in Japan. When it comes to cases involving drugs, it becomes even a worse situation: -- 1 percent of conviction. So there are a lot of criminals in our country who are not convinced that they will ever see a day in jail. So we are working tremendously on that, but the knowledge base was done in 2000, and in 2010 we have already taken steps, finally, to start addressing that problem. BRADLEY: In an earlier government, not your own, corruption ran all the way to the level of ministers. And presumably those governments were speaking -- weren't making attempts to limit corruption. What is your sense of what went wrong in the early attempts and what can you do here that's more rigorous than what's been done before? AQUINO: Well, first of all, the administration that we succeeded had a questioned mandate. The questioned mandate necessitated it favoring a lot of what they perceived as institutions that supported their continued stay in power. So you see it in the Maguindanao massacre; you see it in the delayed investigations of the ministers involved in the fertilizer scam. Bottom line is any decision that the previous administration had to do always had political considerations, okay? So in our case, we have -- we don't have to rely on the support pillars. We have the people that actually mounted the campaign, came up with all the paraphernalia, became our watchers and inspectors during the whole process of elections and all constantly are there reminding us of our functions as our main support pillar. So conscious of that, conscious of the fact that we have six years in which to effect all of the necessary changes, we think that we are not constrained by the same political realities of a person running for reelection. We are not constrained by owing just a few selected individuals the logistics for mounting the campaign. So we have therefore that freedom to try and please most, if not all, of the Filipinos in terms of delivering our promises for good governance. That frees us from all the usual obligations. That empowers us, in turn, to really go after and deliver -- (inaudible) -- for all of these people that have really done so much harm for our countrymen, and really fulfill our promises to those that aspired and joined us in this dream of really transforming our society. BRADLEY: Let me move to a different topic. It's hard to have a meeting at the Council on Foreign Relations without having the subject of the rise of China and the relative decline of the United States come up. How do you see China changing in its relations with the Philippines? How present is it? How significant is it? AQUINO: Well, they -- in terms of what we call the Greater China -- Taiwan, Hong Kong and the People's Republic, the mainland -- they are already -- (inaudible) -- trade, I understand, with the United States. BRADLEY: So they will be your number-one trading partner in a -- within a matter of a few years? AQUINO: If things go the same way as it has been. But they have engaged us in really being very friendly. When I was a kid, and whenever you'd think about mainland China and its leaders, they seemed to be aloof, you know? About that much distant, that unattainable. But their embassy, their ambassador has really been quite effective in doing away with that imagery. Again, let me reiterate it seems that they are really interested in forging very good relations with us, and that goes hand in hand also with our philosophy. They are, of course, a major superpower. We don't even have a single fighter jet in our air force, fighters as a warplane. We have trainers for it. Really, we are subscribing to the theory that there is prosperity for everybody; it would be in everybody's interest to actually continue the status quo, rather than have flash points that will lead to belligerency and possible altercations that we can't -- we have no hope of winning. BRADLEY: So is it fair to say that in conversations with your fellow ASEAN leaders there's not a particular concern about the way China is evolving? AQUINO: I've only had one conversation with my ASEAN counterparts, and I'll be in a series of them tomorrow. And I guess, though, I've spoken is that, you know, there is a brother in region, but he happens to be the biggest brother on the block, you know? (Laughter.) And we have -- we have competing interests in the Spratly Island groups. One has to -- hopefully, we don't have to hear the phrase "South China Sea" with reference to it being their sea. BRADLEY: Mmm. (In acknowledgement.) AQUINO: So far we have not had manifestations that they intend to push us around. But in case that happens, we have -- I think ASEAN has demonstrated that we would stand as a bloc. BRADLEY: Does the United States feel like it is gradually retreating from the region, or do you feel a greater and greater presence? AQUINO: In the past few weeks I think the presence of your ballistic missile submarines surfacing in so many ports around the Pacific -- Manila just had the visit by your aircraft carrier George Washington, if I'm not mistaken. So I think this president has reiterated we are still around, that we can count on the treaties that we have signed with your government for a very long time. And that also I think augurs well for maintaining cordial relations with each other. BRADLEY: Let me ask you one more question, then we'll open it up here. The insurgency in the south in this chapter has been going on since the 1970s. Give us the state of the union there. How many, you know, armed insurgents are there? Is it waxing; is it waning? AQUINO: Well, lately the primary Muslim secessionist group is the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. And the militia, who is a third party in negotiations with the MILF, has indicated intense support for resolving this issue in the shortest time possible. The foreign minister told me that they are focusing on efforts to try and do it within my term. And lately the MILF has really been trying to discipline its errant members. They've demonstrated that. We are also heartened by the fact that they have, in a sense, toned down their demand from the previous regime. When there were talks previously, they needed solutions that went beyond the ambit of our constitution. Now it seems that to a large degree it will be within the ambit of our constitution, but that makes it even easier to come to terms with them. So we are very hopeful. We have formed our negotiating panel. We have agreed on the head of the observer group. We -- and when I get home I expect to have -- to be told of the actual date of when the resumption of the peace talks will be. So if that happens, you would have groups like the Abu Sayyaf deprived of a friendly bases. They will become more and more marginalized and we will have more and more peace in Mindanao. Which, then, will cease to become the land of promise, and become the land of promises realized. BRADLEY: Let's open it up for questions. May I ask you to follow the Council protocol when we do this, which is to wait for the microphone so we can get it on the record, and then if you would keep your questions to one, and the finally, please identify yourself and your organization. QUESTIONER: I'm Lucy Komisar. I am a journalist. I speak as somebody who was in Manila during the People Power Revolution in 1986 and then wrote a book about your mother. It's one of the issues that made me get interested in the whole offshore corruption question, because people told me that Marcos had stolen -- looted the country and put his money in Switzerland. I'm wondering what you're doing to finally find this, because I understand that one of your agencies has done a report that showed how the money was moved to Liechtenstein and it knows where the money went, about the accounts. And then the investigation just seems to have stopped. Are you doing anything to find out what happened to what is probably billions of dollars that Marcos may have stolen and might now be hidden, because people afterwards got some of that (cash/cache ?)? AQUINO: My mother set up a commission called the Presidential Commission on Good Government. I think it was her first -- first order, the very first order of business. And in fairness, it has recovered somewhat in the neighborhoods of about $10 billion to date. Now, the problem starts with the fact that Mr. Marcos was probably the only person who knew where everything went. And so it's in -- (inaudible) -- depository countries. There were several properties in America and in various other countries. We have nominated new people to the Presidential Commission on Good Government. The last one had an advocacy only of coming to a splitting of the proceeds between the heirs of Mr. Marcos and government as its main proposal in resolving the issue. Again, we -- this new -- this new set of commissioners, headed by Dean Andy Bautista, we expect will accelerate the process of our regaining this lost wealth and the interests earned in roughly about 24 years of trying to get -- (inaudible). We don't guarantee perfect results, but intense efforts now will really be done towards recovery of the same. BRADLEY: Over here, please. QUESTIONER: Good morning. I'm Antonia Taquifa (ph). I'm currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University Weatherhead Station -- Weatherhead Center of East-West Relations. And my question is about industrial policy. For the -- for the past two decades, the Philippines has -- the biggest earner of the Philippines has been export labor. And more recently that has been augmented by the spread of call centers, so that what we have right now is actually the start of de-industrialization, according to a lot of, like, the best Philippine economists. I was wondering if your government has any real, like -- how do you plan to address the fact that there's a need to develop a domestic manufacturing sector, or do you have a plan for that? AQUINO: There is a plan, but unfortunately we -- (inaudible) -- everything so many (givens ?). Amongst them, power, electricity, in particular. The Philippines has one of the highest rates, sometimes equal to and sometimes greater than that of Japan. And that obviously is a serious hindrance towards revitalizing the manufacturing sector. That energy situation's being currently addressed. One of the -- one of the meetings I had with a business group had to deal with the provision of a new 600-megawatt facility in Luzon. There are others that we are -- we're trying to push them also in Mindanao. And once -- and there are various tweaks that will be done towards the whole pricing structure and the local -- (inaudible) -- electrical power industry called the P-NOC. Once all of those are in place we -- we will be bringing down the price of electricity, and hopefully that will -- that will be a boost to manufacturing efforts. Amongst -- and I'm kind of inhibited to tell you all of the companies that we've talked to so far and the rest of the (operations ?) we'll be talking to later. But manufacturing, the -- there are new investors who will be coming to manufacture various items. The campaign amongst our Phil-Ams here in America to join us in the campaign to lobby for the Safe Act will in time, four years or so, if it's successful, be able to get us back to the levels of those who were in the garment industry just a few years back. We're down to about 180,000 now from a peak of about 700 (thousand), 800,000 then. In four or five years we might get 580,000 back into the sector. And as you know, those will really induce further growth. So far the drivers for our economy have to really rely on the business processing outsourcing; tourism, to include medical tourism; agriculture; and mining. But of course my personal dream is to get back that manufacturing aspect. When you -- when you take a bath and the soap you use is imported from Thailand, amongst other countries, then you wonder how such a low-tech product can't be produced in your own country. So as I said, it's really coming from national pride. That has to also be readdressed. BRADLEY: Is there a question over here, please, in the orange? Yes. QUESTIONER: Thank you. I'm Minky Worden from Human Rights Watch. President Aquino, in your inaugural address you promised to attempt to bring justice for victims of serious human rights abuses, yet hundreds of extra-judicial killings and disappearances have so far gone unprosecuted, except for a handful. You mentioned that criminals may have a feeling that they will never see a jail cell, and I think some human rights abusers may have the same feeling. What's your government doing -- what steps is it taking to accelerate the process for justice and accountability? AQUINO: In the first -- accountability, the killings have been with a sense of security. Nobody will ever be brought before the bars of justice and that they can go on their merry way. But in the first three weeks of our administration there were six killings that could be characterized as extra-legal. Of the six, three of them have already been solved in the third week. And of that, charges have been proffered on all of these three cases. We have in custody several of the assailants. And may I add that we have a problem with the insurgency. One of them -- not one of these extra-legal killings is supposed to have been done -- and one of the supervisors, they advised the family of the deceased not to cooperate with government. But in spite of that, we did bring them -- (inaudible) -- and the process is undergoing trial. This is not a matter of state policy, especially under our regime. My father obviously is the reminder that this constant of what was done when a government set up by the people suddenly turns on the people. As I mentioned in my -- well, other -- (inaudible) -- I'm sorry. I have had so many meetings. I hope I mentioned the idea of judicial reform, though. And judicial reform really is the fourth plank in our platform. When you don't have really a sense of certainty of punishment, then your peace-and-order situation deteriorates. (Inaudible) -- I got the former chair of the commission on human rights to head their justice department. She is a very driven individual, and she can be counted upon to really deliver in securing all of the convictions necessary to put an end, or at the very least, to mete out the right punishment to people who have transgressed our laws. So when I talk to our security forces, I keep emphasizing there are greater demands on you, because you cannot deteriorate to the same level as those who are -- that have become outlaws or are outside the (street ?). This is a portion of winning the hearts and minds. It is an investment in ensuring that we deprive these insurgents from their base of support that the people will give them if we are not any different from those that we are fighting. So towards that end, you know, a parameter of appointment should always -- you know, for especially promotions, has to be an absence of a human rights abuse record in the appointment of various officers. BRADLEY: With the card up here. QUESTIONER: Welcome, Mr. President. I'm Jamie Metzl from the Asia Society. I think everybody, both within the Philippines and outside, is thrilled by your government's commitment to stamping out corruption, which is a scourge that has -- and the Philippines has suffered as a result. But many of us who are observers of the Philippines also at least observe that there are some deeply structural issues in the Philippines that at least fuel some of the inequality and injustice and also corruption. And foremost among those, it seems, is the maintenance of a at least semi-feudal structure of overall society in the Philippines that is something more akin to Pakistan than to maybe some of -- other countries across the region. And my question to you is do you accept that characterization of the Philippines, and if so, what is and can your government do to address these deeply structural issues? AQUINO: One of the current issues that has been brought up by the Philippine Senate has been our emphasis on conditional cash transfers in the budget. They say that these handouts are not the solution and we should go back to the traditional methods of having -- rely on trickle-down economics as the key towards uplifting the lot of our people. We are of the opinion that we have something like 4.6 million families severely under the poverty line. And if we are not able to help them get even the basics and also at the same time ensure that they keep their students in school and also receive the proper inoculations for monitoring various health conditions, they will forever be a drain on society and the problem just gets on getting worse rather than being solved. They cannot rely, I guess. And what I'm trying to say is -- you cannot rely on the traditional beliefs of the benefits of a growing economy eventually trickling down. So one might say that that might not be characteristic of a feudal setup, but rather a socialistic setup. And I've been called socialistic and communist at times in my life, you know? But again, it -- I think most of us subscribe to a -- pragmatically, because a lot of us are Christians, and we are responsible for our brothers. That's where it comes from. Now, we're -- how are we able to do that? Because there is a lot of interest in the private sector for major infrastructure projects so necessary that frees the budget for all of these social concerns. The emphasis on items that will empower the people -- micro finance, for instance; provision of more scholarships -- is, I think, proof that we do not want to maintain relationships or structures of institutions that say certain Filipinos have X rights and other Filipinos have X plus Y rights. We have gone after what were considered perhaps sacred cows in terms of our fight against tax evasion. One of the first -- the very first individual that -- so charged was -- did not find that -- posted returns that said he had no income for 12 years, but also managed to buy a Lamborghini vehicle in the same period, you know? (Scattered laughter.) Before, he was not even -- he was not even called to account for his actions. He was the first. Our Bureau of Internal Revenue files cases against these major tax evaders every other week. In between, the Bureau of Customs files cases against smugglers. So to date we have already filed at least several for -- against smugglers, several against tax evaders. Our biggest businessman (at home ?) received one promise from me during the campaign: We promise you that you will have a level playing field. When you are -- when President Marcos, I guess, started the crony capitalism issue, if there is one favorite, this entity does not become competitive. There's no inducement for him to become competitive. When we have to open up our doors to global trade, we could not compete because this guy has been subsidized and sheltered for such a long time. But we will promise you the government will help -- no, will assist you, becomes your partner, does not seek to make you a milking cow, but rather as a -- we'll provide the milieu whereby you can prosper and rise to the levels of your competitiveness. That in turn hopefully will be the long -- the parting of the seas for the long-term strategy of our ability to compete globally. So I cannot subscribe to the idea that we will retain our privileges for a select few and keep us moribund in a situation where there's no potential for growth. Thank you. BRADLEY: Someone right here. QUESTIONER: Hello, Mr. President. I'm Ken Roth, from Human Rights Watch. You spoke in your opening remarks about ASEAN as a vehicle for promoting democratic values. And I think it's safe to say that the most controversial member of ASEAN has been Burma. Now, ASEAN has been a tool for engaging with Burma, and that's not going to change. But your predecessors as president, including your mother, all recognized the need for pressure in addition to engagement. They were all quite outspoken about Burmese abuses. Today the new effort to ratchet up pressure is being introduced at the United Nations in an effort to create a commission of inquiry to look into the atrocities committed by the junta as a way of being clear that ASEAN and the world will not stand for those atrocities and to try to prevent them from spilling over into the future. Is that an effort that your government would support? AQUINO: Can I -- can I just speak on behalf of the Philippines? I just met with one of my counterparts. With respect to the plight now of Burma, especially personified by Aung San Suu Kyi, a person my mother admired and perhaps can identify with, has been -- has merited my support in various petitions, various resolutions when I was a member of the legislature. A few weeks ago, perhaps a month ago, I did talk to another ASEAN leader. And this guy is a freedom fighter, and he opened my eyes to the other side of the coin. And his premise went something like this: If the junta in Burma goes, you will have so many divergent groups, you will probably have an unstable country -- for the near future. His premise was this junta is, in a sense, the stabilizing part of that. That was the first time I ever really was introduced to that concept. I believe that any government that does not truly have the mandate of its people is actually just postponing the inevitable where conflict and national tensions will come to the forefront. And if there is instability in Burma, that affects the whole region. We will be compelled to assist in the case of people who flee, as in the case of Vietnam in the past where we became -- we became hosts for a whole lot of Vietnamese boat people. And it behooves us to really try and help them achieve stability and a resolution of all of these tensions where the mandate of the people is not really that clear. Towards that end, we will encourage all the other members of ASEAN to revisit this engagement policy, and we will ask what is the best method of dealing with a regime that basically tells the whole world we don't care what your opinion is. We recognize our limitations, but again, it will not stop us in trying to promote that which will bring the mandate of the people to the forefront. And be the key towards long-term stability, not only for Burma, but the rest of the region. BRADLEY: At the Atlantic, we have a term that we use for the kind of public speaking that comes at the very end of the meeting. We call it the Elizabeth Taylor School of Public Speaking. (Laughter.) So as Elizabeth said to each of her five successive husbands, I won't be keeping you long. (Laughter, applause.) You've honored us by coming today. Thank you very much. (C) COPYRIGHT 2010, FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC., 1000 VERMONT AVE. NW; 5TH FLOOR; WASHINGTON, DC - 20005, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ANY REPRODUCTION, REDISTRIBUTION OR RETRANSMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED. UNAUTHORIZED REPRODUCTION, REDISTRIBUTION OR RETRANSMISSION CONSTITUTES A MISAPPROPRIATION UNDER APPLICABLE UNFAIR COMPETITION LAW, AND FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC. RESERVES THE RIGHT TO PURSUE ALL REMEDIES AVAILABLE TO IT IN RESPECT TO SUCH MISAPPROPRIATION. FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC. IS A PRIVATE FIRM AND IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. NO COPYRIGHT IS CLAIMED AS TO ANY PART OF THE ORIGINAL WORK PREPARED BY A UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT OFFICER OR EMPLOYEE AS PART OF THAT PERSON'S OFFICIAL DUTIES. FOR INFORMATION ON SUBSCRIBING TO FNS, PLEASE CALL CARINA NYBERG AT 202-347-1400. THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. DAVID BRADLEY: Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of the Council on Foreign Relations, I want to welcome President Benigno Aquino III. He's the 15th president of the Republic of the Philippines. He enters today his 86th day in office. This is his first overseas trip, officially. And we're privileged to have you here, Mr. President. My name is David Bradley. I'm the owner of the Atlantic, in Washington, D.C. Let me do the dispatching of the administrative details to start with. First, the order of service: I'm going to introduce the president, and the council has asked him if he would speak for about 15 minutes. Following that, we'll move directly to questions and answers. The president and I will sit up here. I'll lead off with five minutes or so of questions, and then we'll open up to everyone. Next administrative function: Those of you who are journalists, today's conversation is on the record. May I ask you all to turn off your cell phones and your BlackBerrys? And apparently, we need to ask you to actually turn them off, not move it to vibrate, as it interferes with the sound system if it's on vibrate. And then, a final administrative note -- this is a note of full disclosure: I'm worried you may find my questions of the president too benign or too mild for a journalist. I was a Fulbright scholar in the Philippines in my 20s, and it is easily one of my unsurpassed years. I have nothing but abashed great -- unabashed great feelings for the country. So I don't have a "Mike Wallace question" in me. (Laughter.) That's going to have to fall to all of you. So, I don't know that it is the greatest political narrative story in the world, but it is surely one of the greatest political narrative stories of the last hundred years: the rise of the Aquino family in Tarlac, Luzon, the Philippines. President Aquino's great-grandfather was a revolutionary general who fought in turn the Spanish and then the Americans. He was twice sentenced to death. President Aquino's grandfather, a more controversial figure, was imprisoned by the Americans. But it was the imprisonment of his father Ninoy Aquino that thrust the family name onto the world stage. Noynoy Aquino, as he is known -- as the president is known, was 12 years old when his father was taken by the Marcos government and charged with subversion and murder. He was 17 years old when the trial finally finished and his father was sentenced to death. He was 20 years old when, in a surprise visit, Imelda Marcos showed up at the prison, had Ninoy Aquino released and placed into exile in the United States. And now-President Aquino was 23 years old when his father famously boarded Chinese Air flight 811 to return to the Philippines in protest, and he was assassinated on the tarmac on deplaning. Everyone knows the whole -- story after that: the return of Cory Aquino to the Philippines, the election of 1986, which was stolen from her, the People Power Revolution that spilled out onto the streets of the highway, EDSA, that you'll all remember the television images of, and then the flight of the Marcos family, fleeing into the night aboard an American helicopter that had been sent from Clark Air Force Base. What you may not know is the letter that became famous in the Philippines during the last presidential campaign, the one that President Aquino just won. This was written in 1973 by an imprisoned Ninoy Aquino to his son Noynoy, who was 13 years old at the time. I'm just going to read you a portion of the letter. "My dear son, this afternoon I have arrived at my moment of truth. I've decided not to participate in the proceedings of the military commission assigned to take charges filed against me. "You are still too young to grasp the full impact of my decision. Briefly, by not participating in the proceedings, I will not be represented by counsel. I will not put up any defense. I expect to be sentenced to imprisonment for the rest of my natural life, or possibly to be sent to stand before a firing squad. "Forgive me for passing on to your young shoulders the great responsibilities of our family. I trust you will love your mother and your sisters, and lavish them with the care and protection I would have given them. "I had hopes of introducing you to my friends, showing you the world and guiding you through the maze of survival. I'm afraid you will not -- you will now have to go it alone, without your guide. "There's no greater nation on Earth than our motherland, no greater people than our own. Serve them with all your heart. Son, the ball is now in your hands. "Lovingly, Dad." This letter became a major piece of the campaign that just took place, especially that closing line, "Son, the ball is now in your hands." So running on a platform of attacking government corruption, President Aquino in a field of 10 candidates won 40 percent of the vote. It was 5 million votes more than the next candidate. By the time of his inauguration, which was the end of June, he had an 85 percent favorable rating in Philippine polls. That's the highest favorable rating in Philippine polling history. And Time magazine described him -- here I'm quoting -- as of "Gandhian simplicity and uprightness." For those of us who have trouble summoning an 85 percent approval rate in our nuclear families -- (laughter) -- this is as good as life ever becomes. I don't know how you can do better than your start in office, but it is a remarkable start. So join me in welcoming the president of the Philippines. (Applause.) PRESIDENT BENIGNO S. AQUINO III: Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Bradley, for those very inspiring words. It reminds me that my father's looking at us right now. And if I fail to live up to his expectations, I might wind up on the floor in a little while. (Soft laughter.) (Dr. Haass ?), distinguished members of the Council on Foreign Relations, members of my delegation, ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon. Thank you for the warm welcome and kind introduction. I appreciate this great opportunity to engage you in a conversation about the Philippines. I am here to share with you the aspirations of close to 100 million Filipinos that I represent. Today, I took my oath -- my oath of office as president. I vowed to our people that I will dedicate my life to making our democracy reach its fullest potential, that of ensuring equal opportunity for all. In an essay he wrote in 1968 for Foreign Affairs, my father lamented, and I quote, "that the blessings of liberty have not included liberation from poverty, and that there are great disparities and chronic inequities of Philippine society." His words still remain true today. I was put into office by the people who believed in my idea that corruption is the root of poverty; that an end to corruption would mean an end to poverty. My government is ready to deliver on the second part of this pledge. We will channel any gains into the people through social services like education, health and conditional cash transfers that serve both as life vests for the poorest of the poor and incentives to ensure that they can move forward in life by getting educated and staying healthy. My government's mantra is to guarantee a more equitable distribution of our nation's resources. This can only be achieved through stronger economic growth, investments -- (very ?) needed in social services. But they are also necessary in infrastructure, utilities and job-generating enterprises. Given the scarce resources that we have, attracting foreign capital has become a vital component of my anti-poverty program. And I am here today to tell you that my government is doing what it takes to create a more investor-friendly environment. Part of my mandate is to curb corruption and streamline a cumbersome, graft-ridden bureaucracy, to put resources where they will provide the clearest results, and to untangle a complicated regulatory environment. The mission I have set out for myself is to lead by example, rally our people and unite them behind a common sense of purpose. It is imperative for us to work hand in glove and persevere in creating a just society for all. I have laid out the tenets that will mark the new Philippines: good governance, employment generation, quality education, improved public health, and a home for every family within safe communities. Even as we exert our best to create jobs at home, the immediate reality is that many of my compatriots continue to seek greener pastures abroad. This makes them vulnerable to human traffickers and illegal recruiters. We are thus doubling our efforts to bring the full force of the law against those who prey on the vulnerable. We have committed to restore integrity in leadership and governance. We will battle corruption, cut red tape and exact the highest standards of performance from our bureaucracy. The government must earn the full trust and confidence of its citizens. This trust and confidence is the motive force that would get them actively involved in building and rebuilding our nation. By empowering the people and nurturing democratic participation, we can truly bring about real reforms. Ladies and gentlemen, I came here to declare that the Philippines is open for business under new management. Today I invite you to take part in the transformation of the Philippines. We are striving in earnest to build a government where everything works and pursue programs for our economic take-off. The forging of private-public partnerships, or PPPs, would be our main engine in revving up our economy. We will enlist the participation of the private sector, both domestic and foreign, in big-ticket, capital-intensive infrastructure projects, while ensuring reasonable returns. We shall officially launch the PPPs this October. An initial list of 10 PPP projects worth $4.5 billion is already being developed. We look forward to the participation of the U.S. investors, specifically as we open up our infrastructure sector for foreign participation. There is no better time than now to bank on the Philippines and lay the groundwork for future long-term business and economic success. The global economic recovery, growth in international trade and overall as improved levels of confidence, have already borne fruit. In the first half of 2010, the Philippine economy showed robust growth of 7.8 percent and 7.9 percent. Full-year GDP growth will likely reach the upper end of the 5 to 6 percent -- percentile target. Perhaps, we hope, we can even reach higher. There was a return of the bulls to our local stock market. Trading has reached fever pitch, and foreign funds are streaming our way. There was a net inflow of $128 million in foreign direct investments in June of 2010, as compared to the previous month's net outflow. Since the end of June, when I was inaugurated president, 754.55 billion pesos in wealth was created, when measured by the increase in domestic market capitalization. For the first time, the Philippines was also able to raise $1 billion through the sale of a peso-denominated global bond. This bond issuance generated high investor interest from across the globe, from Asia, Europe and the United States. Financial analysts point to good governance and market-driven economic growth as the impetus for this investor confidence. Our doors are wide open for investors, particularly in tourism, business process outsourcing, mining, electronics, housing and agricultural sectors. Tourism is a crucial industry that could employ millions of Filipinos, skilled and unskilled alike, cross those 7,107 islands of the Philippines. (Coughs.) Excuse me. From the current projection of 3.3 million tourist arrivals in 2010, our aim is to eventually attract 6 million tourists. In the process, we expect to create 3 million jobs in the next six years. BPO continues to be a sunrise industry in the Philippines. From virtually nothing 10 years ago, this sector has grown into a $7.2 billion industry, employing 450,000 people. Today the Philippines has the second-biggest BPO industry in the world, next only to India, and growth forecast remains very encouraging on the long term. The Philippines has vast minerals that are still untapped. It has one of the world's largest deposits of gold, nickel, copper and chromite. Through responsible mining, we intend to generate more revenues from the extraction of these resources. If we succeed in getting the support of foreign and local investors for our PPP programs, we will have money to spend for the delivery of much-needed social services across the country. As we strengthen our economic infrastructure, we will also create the peaceful and stable environment necessary for economic growth. I offered -- (clears throat) -- excuse me -- I have offered a place at the table for everyone who wants to talk about peace, to unite our country and bring the disillusioned and the disenfranchised who have chosen the violent path back into our -- excuse me -- back into our democratic mainstream. My administration's compact with the Filipino people will demand no less than the attainment of lasting peace and equitable prosperity. We will employ all the tools at our disposal to achieve this. The Philippine relations with the United States are vital. The special ties that exist between us, our security allies and development partners serve as a steady anchor in American engagement towards the Asia-Pacific. The earlier, colonial patron-client relationship has evolved through the years into modern, mature and mutually beneficial relations. Our economic relations are robust. The United States is among our leading trade partners. It ranks as our largest export market and second-largest supplier. About 18 percent of total Philippine exports were bound for the U.S. and approximately 12 percent of our imports were sought from America last year. The U.S. has also been traditionally the Philippines' largest foreign investor, mostly in the manufacturing sector. We are now advocating for the passage of a bill pending in the U.S. Congress known as the Save our Industries Act, or the Save Act. If signed into law, it would give duty-free breaks for Philippine garment exports to the U.S. which were processed from U.S.-made fabrics. It will also give reduced tariffs on those that use U.S.-made yarns. This is a win-win proposition for both the U.S. and the Philippines. It will reinvigorate both the U.S. textile industry and our garments industry, and create jobs on both sides of the Pacific. During my visit here I particularly look forward to our signing of the Millennium Challenge compact agreement. This is a vote of confidence on our commitment to reduce poverty, generate revenues through our tough campaign against graft and corruption, and to modernize our infrastructure. As you may know, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, or MCC, awards grants only to countries which rule justly, promote economic freedom, and invest in their people. With keen interest we note the Obama administration's focus in negotiating a regional Asia-Pacific trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. Envisioned as a platform for economic integration across the region, the TPP countries would be in the best place to become the region's leading hub for trade investment and growth. The Philippines aims to engage the U.S. in a joint trade initiative that would serve as mutual building blocks for our eventual participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Just like other ASEAN member states, the Philippines is already positioning itself as a viable member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. We seek U.S. support for this, as we recognize its leadership role as host of the APEC in 2011. In regional affairs, the Philippines has been a dynamic player, especially in ASEAN. From a small grouping of 10 nations, ASEAN has now emerged as the nucleus of regional dialogue and cooperation. The ASEAN charter was adopted in December 2008 that conferred leader status to the organization and laid down a clear road map towards building an ASEAN community by 2015. A Philippine initiative was the inclusion of a provision in the charter calling for the establishment of a human rights body called the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights. Still in its incipient stage, this body stands much to gain from U.S. partnership in capacity building. For its part, the Philippines stands by its offer to host its secretariat. On human rights protection and promotion, we look forward to greater cooperation with the U.S. as the Philippines, once again, endeavors to be the citadel for human rights, democracy and good governance in our own region. Right now the Philippines is a nexus for the ASEAN-U.S. relations as country coordinator. Fulfilling this mandate has been -- benefited by the renewed interest of the U.S. in Southeast Asia. President Obama's vow in 2009 to be a Pacific president generated excitement in our region. Prior to this, most countries in the region felt that they had become mere blips in the American radar screen as Washington, D.C., focused on the Middle East, particularly on Iraq. Perhaps the strongest signal of reengagement with Southeast Asia was the U.S.'s accession to the Southeast Asian Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. President Obama was also the first American president to meet with ASEAN leaders in the first ASEAN-U.S. summit in Singapore of last year. These augur well for a broadening and deepening of ASEAN-U.S. interactions at an accelerated pace. Our second ASEAN-U.S. summit tomorrow will reinforce this new era of ASEAN-U.S. relations. The U.S. is a major trading partner of ASEAN. ASEAN, in turn, has been one of the fastest-growing export markets and host of U.S. investments. The Philippines would like to see the enhanced implementation of the ASEAN-U.S. Trade and Investment Framework Arrangement. An economically viable and strong ASEAN facilitates stability and prosperity, and the TIFA is a vital tool for economic growth, job creation and improved welfare of our peoples. Connectivity has become another buzzword in ASEAN in past year. We expect the master plan on ASEAN connectivity to be ready by the ASEAN summit next month. Three key elements characterize our connectivity master plan: physical connectivity, referring to transport connectivity; institutional connectivity, referring to trade and investment liberalization; and people-to-people connectivity, referring to tourism, education and cultural exchange. You will note that these three elements of connectivity point to the economic, political, security and socio-cultural goals of ASEAN community building. Given its unique geographic locations, the Philippines in particular look forward to the development of a nautical highway to ensure that we remain connected to our neighbors in the region. Forging public-private partnerships will make the connectivity in ASEAN a reality, and we look forward to the strong support of the U.S. for this initiative. At the ASEAN ministerial meeting and ASEAN regional forum in Hanoi last July, the South China Sea issue was discussed. The Philippines welcomed State Secretary -- Secretary of State, rather -- Hillary Clinton's statement to the forum that, while the U.S. takes no sides in the dispute in the South China Sea, that claimant states should resolve their disputes through a collaborative diplomatic process and in accordance with international law. The Philippines and the U.S. share the need to maintain unimpeded maritime commerce and navigation. The Philippines believes that it is in the best interests of the region to transform this potential flash point into a zone of peace, friendship, freedom and cooperation through sustained consultation and dialogue. A most pressing phenomenon that confronts and threatens humankind today is climate change. The Philippines has a very negligible carbon footprint. It produces only one-third of 1 percent of the global greenhouse gases. Yet it is in the U.N.'s roster of top 12 countries most vulnerable to climate change. Two devastating typhoons hit us last year and damage to our crops and property was equivalent to 2.7 percent of our gross domestic product. That is why in climate change negotiations we have been calling for deep and early cuts in the greenhouse gas emissions of developed countries. We urge them to support the developing countries in terms of financing, technology transfer and capacity building for climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts as a form of restitution or climate justice. The Philippines has a renewable energy act. It is a legal framework for the harnessing of our renewable sources of energy, including foreign investments, and we invite U.S. involvement in this program. We also appreciate the USAID's promotion of clean energy technologies in the Philippines -- modest beginnings for our goals towards green growth and green economy. The world looks up to the U.S. leadership in climate-change negotiations and in putting in place an international framework on climate change. Still, within the auspices of the United Nations, the Philippines steered the crucial negotiations of the 2010 review conference of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty last May here in New York. As president of that conference, the Philippines helped revive the moribund NPT. It helped garner consensus towards a comprehensive approach to nuclear disarmament, nuclear nonproliferation, and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. After a month-long intensive negotiation, a 64-point action plan was adopted. This was both historic and unprecedented. More daunting challenges lie ahead. The Philippines and ASEAN will continue to stress the importance of the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone Treaty in preserving peace and security in the region. We strongly urge the nuclear-weapon states to accede to its protocol. We laud the U.S.'s own disarmament efforts. We are encouraged by the success of the U.S.-Russia START talks this year on the reduction of their nuclear arsenals. The holding of the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C., in April also provided a favorable environment for the success on the NPT review conference. This year is the International Year of Diversity. The Philippines hosts the ASEAN Center for Biodiversity, and is a founding member of the Coral Triangle Initiative, along with Indonesia, Malaysia, Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands -- a triangle which is home to 75 percent of all known coral species, 3,000 species of fish, including tuna and other marine resources. With a high level of biodiversity, the Philippines is among 18 mega-diverse countries. The Philippines is of the view that development and poverty alleviation are benefits derived from biodiversity. For this reason, the Philippines is committed to biodiversity conservation and to the attainment of the objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity. The most important role of the U.N. is the effective discharge of its peacekeeping function. The Philippines is proudly taking part in that role. We have sent more than 1,000 military and police personnel to most of the U.N. peacekeeping missions, specifically in Haiti; Darfur, Sudan; Timor Leste; Liberia and the Cote d'Ivoire. At the Golan Heights, the U.N. is preventing possible clashes between Israel and Syria. Leading the U.N. disengagement observer force is a Filipino general. A third of the U.N. force in the Golan Heights are Filipino peacekeepers. Peace in the Middle East is of prime importance to the Philippines, due to the presence of around 2 million of our countrymen working in that region. We note the commitment and personal leadership of President Obama in the Middle East peace process, and wish him success in this endeavor. We are satisfied that there is now a clear recognition of the interlocking linkage between peacekeeping and peacebuilding towards lasting peace, security and development. In closing, allow me to share with you President Obama's observation about the Philippines. He said, and I quote, "The Philippines punches above its weight in the international arena," close quote. Indeed, we have high aspirations in our foreign relations. We believe that in the increasingly globalized and interdependent world, national goals and objectives are served by partnerships and collaboration with friends abroad. Our engagements with the rest of the world will always be at the service of our aspiration to build a vibrant nation. Thank you for your patience, and good afternoon to all. (Applause.) Thank you. BRADLEY: Well, Mr. President, congratulations on your election. AQUINO: Thank you. BRADLEY: Let me start with a general question. Right after John Kennedy had been elected president, maybe a few months into his term, he was asked the question, so now you're president. How's the country different than you expected it to be? And Kennedy said, well, when we were campaigning we were talking about what terrible shape the United States was in. And he said, the large surprise, now that we're governing, is everything we said was true. (Laughter.) So roll back to when you were campaigning. And you had a privileged view of the state of the Philippines, but not the view that you now have. What do you know now that you didn't know when you became president? How's the country doing? AQUINO: Well, when we started out, during the campaign, we knew that we were in a bad shape. When we got into office, we realized that our estimate was on the optimistic side. (Scattered laughter.) BRADLEY: Mm-hmm. (In acknowledgement.) AQUINO: But the pleasant surprise is in spite. For instance, we were supposed to go work for half of the year in 2010. We were left to -- (inaudible) -- about 10 percent of the national budget to spend on the last half of the year. But the surprising thing is -- look at the numbers that you were quoting earlier, be it the stock market, be it the global (trust ?) bond offer -- very, very successful. But more importantly, our Department of Budget and Management has just informed us that through good governance, improved expenditures, we have actually had a surplus in the second half -- or the second month that we have been in office. That obviously was not expected. We were -- all our focus has been on controlling the deficit and making sure that our ratings with the various credit agencies will -- credit rating agencies -- will not suffer more, to make our borrowings even that much more expensive to cover deficits. But again, in the past month alone there has been so much good news, you know? Basically what we thought was the timetable for fixing all of our problems seems to be accelerating, and we hope to continue in that trend. And when I get back home, there's just really a mountain of good news that I'll be bringing back home to our people. BRADLEY: You mentioned the word "surplus." We in the United States don't know the meaning of that word. So afterwards maybe you could stay back with us and -- (laughter). You campaigned on a platform of attacking corruption. Give us a sense of just how big a problem this is. AQUINO: Okay, let me give you one concrete example. We were meeting with the World Bank, I think it was yesterday. They had funded a series of road projects, and they believed that there was collusion amongst the various contractors. There were favored contractors. And they subsequently banned, if memory serves me right, about 10 of these contractors from any World Bank-funded project. Now, the DPWH, our Department of Public Works and Highways, in control of these projects, subsequently banned the same, but they banned them only from projects that are World Bank-funded. So they were favored again for items apart from that budget. So without any investigations that exonerated them from the charges, they continued in their merry ways, making them that much favored. I'll give you another example. We had a fertilizer scam in 2004, discovered by a commission and audit in 2008. The project was meant to give farm inputs, be it seeds, be it fertilizers, et cetera, to assist all of our farmers and increase their incomes. Now, the fertilizers that were purchased were not appropriate for rice, they were exorbitantly overpriced, and at the end of the day most of it was never delivered. So the wrong fertilizer, that was charged at least 300 percent in most instances overpriced, was never even actually delivered. So our ombudsman, who is tasked with investigating instances of corruption, amongst other things, by government entities, proceeded to investigate that incident four years after it transpired. And in the process, one of the witnesses or maybe a vital witness to that had already died. So even at this stage, no charges have been proffered amongst government officials involved in that program. And in -- I think it was in 2005 that they had a repeat of this program and the scam nature of it, and perhaps in a slightly lower category. So this is -- and it goes up and down -- (chuckles) -- the chains of government. And that's precisely what we're trying to fight at this point in time. Now, that fills us also with a sense of urgency, because our judicial system also needs to be really reformed. We have on average about a 14 percent conviction rate, compared to your 80 percent here, compared to 95 percent in Japan. When it comes to cases involving drugs, it becomes even a worse situation: -- 1 percent of conviction. So there are a lot of criminals in our country who are not convinced that they will ever see a day in jail. So we are working tremendously on that, but the knowledge base was done in 2000, and in 2010 we have already taken steps, finally, to start addressing that problem. BRADLEY: In an earlier government, not your own, corruption ran all the way to the level of ministers. And presumably those governments were speaking -- weren't making attempts to limit corruption. What is your sense of what went wrong in the early attempts and what can you do here that's more rigorous than what's been done before? AQUINO: Well, first of all, the administration that we succeeded had a questioned mandate. The questioned mandate necessitated it favoring a lot of what they perceived as institutions that supported their continued stay in power. So you see it in the Maguindanao massacre; you see it in the delayed investigations of the ministers involved in the fertilizer scam. Bottom line is any decision that the previous administration had to do always had political considerations, okay? So in our case, we have -- we don't have to rely on the support pillars. We have the people that actually mounted the campaign, came up with all the paraphernalia, became our watchers and inspectors during the whole process of elections and all constantly are there reminding us of our functions as our main support pillar. So conscious of that, conscious of the fact that we have six years in which to effect all of the necessary changes, we think that we are not constrained by the same political realities of a person running for reelection. We are not constrained by owing just a few selected individuals the logistics for mounting the campaign. So we have therefore that freedom to try and please most, if not all, of the Filipinos in terms of delivering our promises for good governance. That frees us from all the usual obligations. That empowers us, in turn, to really go after and deliver -- (inaudible) -- for all of these people that have really done so much harm for our countrymen, and really fulfill our promises to those that aspired and joined us in this dream of really transforming our society. BRADLEY: Let me move to a different topic. It's hard to have a meeting at the Council on Foreign Relations without having the subject of the rise of China and the relative decline of the United States come up. How do you see China changing in its relations with the Philippines? How present is it? How significant is it? AQUINO: Well, they -- in terms of what we call the Greater China -- Taiwan, Hong Kong and the People's Republic, the mainland -- they are already -- (inaudible) -- trade, I understand, with the United States. BRADLEY: So they will be your number-one trading partner in a -- within a matter of a few years? AQUINO: If things go the same way as it has been. But they have engaged us in really being very friendly. When I was a kid, and whenever you'd think about mainland China and its leaders, they seemed to be aloof, you know? About that much distant, that unattainable. But their embassy, their ambassador has really been quite effective in doing away with that imagery. Again, let me reiterate it seems that they are really interested in forging very good relations with us, and that goes hand in hand also with our philosophy. They are, of course, a major superpower. We don't even have a single fighter jet in our air force, fighters as a warplane. We have trainers for it. Really, we are subscribing to the theory that there is prosperity for everybody; it would be in everybody's interest to actually continue the status quo, rather than have flash points that will lead to belligerency and possible altercations that we can't -- we have no hope of winning. BRADLEY: So is it fair to say that in conversations with your fellow ASEAN leaders there's not a particular concern about the way China is evolving? AQUINO: I've only had one conversation with my ASEAN counterparts, and I'll be in a series of them tomorrow. And I guess, though, I've spoken is that, you know, there is a brother in region, but he happens to be the biggest brother on the block, you know? (Laughter.) And we have -- we have competing interests in the Spratly Island groups. One has to -- hopefully, we don't have to hear the phrase "South China Sea" with reference to it being their sea. BRADLEY: Mmm. (In acknowledgement.) AQUINO: So far we have not had manifestations that they intend to push us around. But in case that happens, we have -- I think ASEAN has demonstrated that we would stand as a bloc. BRADLEY: Does the United States feel like it is gradually retreating from the region, or do you feel a greater and greater presence? AQUINO: In the past few weeks I think the presence of your ballistic missile submarines surfacing in so many ports around the Pacific -- Manila just had the visit by your aircraft carrier George Washington, if I'm not mistaken. So I think this president has reiterated we are still around, that we can count on the treaties that we have signed with your government for a very long time. And that also I think augurs well for maintaining cordial relations with each other. BRADLEY: Let me ask you one more question, then we'll open it up here. The insurgency in the south in this chapter has been going on since the 1970s. Give us the state of the union there. How many, you know, armed insurgents are there? Is it waxing; is it waning? AQUINO: Well, lately the primary Muslim secessionist group is the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. And the militia, who is a third party in negotiations with the MILF, has indicated intense support for resolving this issue in the shortest time possible. The foreign minister told me that they are focusing on efforts to try and do it within my term. And lately the MILF has really been trying to discipline its errant members. They've demonstrated that. We are also heartened by the fact that they have, in a sense, toned down their demand from the previous regime. When there were talks previously, they needed solutions that went beyond the ambit of our constitution. Now it seems that to a large degree it will be within the ambit of our constitution, but that makes it even easier to come to terms with them. So we are very hopeful. We have formed our negotiating panel. We have agreed on the head of the observer group. We -- and when I get home I expect to have -- to be told of the actual date of when the resumption of the peace talks will be. So if that happens, you would have groups like the Abu Sayyaf deprived of a friendly bases. They will become more and more marginalized and we will have more and more peace in Mindanao. Which, then, will cease to become the land of promise, and become the land of promises realized. BRADLEY: Let's open it up for questions. May I ask you to follow the Council protocol when we do this, which is to wait for the microphone so we can get it on the record, and then if you would keep your questions to one, and the finally, please identify yourself and your organization. QUESTIONER: I'm Lucy Komisar. I am a journalist. I speak as somebody who was in Manila during the People Power Revolution in 1986 and then wrote a book about your mother. It's one of the issues that made me get interested in the whole offshore corruption question, because people told me that Marcos had stolen -- looted the country and put his money in Switzerland. I'm wondering what you're doing to finally find this, because I understand that one of your agencies has done a report that showed how the money was moved to Liechtenstein and it knows where the money went, about the accounts. And then the investigation just seems to have stopped. Are you doing anything to find out what happened to what is probably billions of dollars that Marcos may have stolen and might now be hidden, because people afterwards got some of that (cash/cache ?)? AQUINO: My mother set up a commission called the Presidential Commission on Good Government. I think it was her first -- first order, the very first order of business. And in fairness, it has recovered somewhat in the neighborhoods of about $10 billion to date. Now, the problem starts with the fact that Mr. Marcos was probably the only person who knew where everything went. And so it's in -- (inaudible) -- depository countries. There were several properties in America and in various other countries. We have nominated new people to the Presidential Commission on Good Government. The last one had an advocacy only of coming to a splitting of the proceeds between the heirs of Mr. Marcos and government as its main proposal in resolving the issue. Again, we -- this new -- this new set of commissioners, headed by Dean Andy Bautista, we expect will accelerate the process of our regaining this lost wealth and the interests earned in roughly about 24 years of trying to get -- (inaudible). We don't guarantee perfect results, but intense efforts now will really be done towards recovery of the same. BRADLEY: Over here, please. QUESTIONER: Good morning. I'm Antonia Taquifa (ph). I'm currently a visiting scholar at Columbia University Weatherhead Station -- Weatherhead Center of East-West Relations. And my question is about industrial policy. For the -- for the past two decades, the Philippines has -- the biggest earner of the Philippines has been export labor. And more recently that has been augmented by the spread of call centers, so that what we have right now is actually the start of de-industrialization, according to a lot of, like, the best Philippine economists. I was wondering if your government has any real, like -- how do you plan to address the fact that there's a need to develop a domestic manufacturing sector, or do you have a plan for that? AQUINO: There is a plan, but unfortunately we -- (inaudible) -- everything so many (givens ?). Amongst them, power, electricity, in particular. The Philippines has one of the highest rates, sometimes equal to and sometimes greater than that of Japan. And that obviously is a serious hindrance towards revitalizing the manufacturing sector. That energy situation's being currently addressed. One of the -- one of the meetings I had with a business group had to deal with the provision of a new 600-megawatt facility in Luzon. There are others that we are -- we're trying to push them also in Mindanao. And once -- and there are various tweaks that will be done towards the whole pricing structure and the local -- (inaudible) -- electrical power industry called the P-NOC. Once all of those are in place we -- we will be bringing down the price of electricity, and hopefully that will -- that will be a boost to manufacturing efforts. Amongst -- and I'm kind of inhibited to tell you all of the companies that we've talked to so far and the rest of the (operations ?) we'll be talking to later. But manufacturing, the -- there are new investors who will be coming to manufacture various items. The campaign amongst our Phil-Ams here in America to join us in the campaign to lobby for the Safe Act will in time, four years or so, if it's successful, be able to get us back to the levels of those who were in the garment industry just a few years back. We're down to about 180,000 now from a peak of about 700 (thousand), 800,000 then. In four or five years we might get 580,000 back into the sector. And as you know, those will really induce further growth. So far the drivers for our economy have to really rely on the business processing outsourcing; tourism, to include medical tourism; agriculture; and mining. But of course my personal dream is to get back that manufacturing aspect. When you -- when you take a bath and the soap you use is imported from Thailand, amongst other countries, then you wonder how such a low-tech product can't be produced in your own country. So as I said, it's really coming from national pride. That has to also be readdressed. BRADLEY: Is there a question over here, please, in the orange? Yes. QUESTIONER: Thank you. I'm Minky Worden from Human Rights Watch. President Aquino, in your inaugural address you promised to attempt to bring justice for victims of serious human rights abuses, yet hundreds of extra-judicial killings and disappearances have so far gone unprosecuted, except for a handful. You mentioned that criminals may have a feeling that they will never see a jail cell, and I think some human rights abusers may have the same feeling. What's your government doing -- what steps is it taking to accelerate the process for justice and accountability? AQUINO: In the first -- accountability, the killings have been with a sense of security. Nobody will ever be brought before the bars of justice and that they can go on their merry way. But in the first three weeks of our administration there were six killings that could be characterized as extra-legal. Of the six, three of them have already been solved in the third week. And of that, charges have been proffered on all of these three cases. We have in custody several of the assailants. And may I add that we have a problem with the insurgency. One of them -- not one of these extra-legal killings is supposed to have been done -- and one of the supervisors, they advised the family of the deceased not to cooperate with government. But in spite of that, we did bring them -- (inaudible) -- and the process is undergoing trial. This is not a matter of state policy, especially under our regime. My father obviously is the reminder that this constant of what was done when a government set up by the people suddenly turns on the people. As I mentioned in my -- well, other -- (inaudible) -- I'm sorry. I have had so many meetings. I hope I mentioned the idea of judicial reform, though. And judicial reform really is the fourth plank in our platform. When you don't have really a sense of certainty of punishment, then your peace-and-order situation deteriorates. (Inaudible) -- I got the former chair of the commission on human rights to head their justice department. She is a very driven individual, and she can be counted upon to really deliver in securing all of the convictions necessary to put an end, or at the very least, to mete out the right punishment to people who have transgressed our laws. So when I talk to our security forces, I keep emphasizing there are greater demands on you, because you cannot deteriorate to the same level as those who are -- that have become outlaws or are outside the (street ?). This is a portion of winning the hearts and minds. It is an investment in ensuring that we deprive these insurgents from their base of support that the people will give them if we are not any different from those that we are fighting. So towards that end, you know, a parameter of appointment should always -- you know, for especially promotions, has to be an absence of a human rights abuse record in the appointment of various officers. BRADLEY: With the card up here. QUESTIONER: Welcome, Mr. President. I'm Jamie Metzl from the Asia Society. I think everybody, both within the Philippines and outside, is thrilled by your government's commitment to stamping out corruption, which is a scourge that has -- and the Philippines has suffered as a result. But many of us who are observers of the Philippines also at least observe that there are some deeply structural issues in the Philippines that at least fuel some of the inequality and injustice and also corruption. And foremost among those, it seems, is the maintenance of a at least semi-feudal structure of overall society in the Philippines that is something more akin to Pakistan than to maybe some of -- other countries across the region. And my question to you is do you accept that characterization of the Philippines, and if so, what is and can your government do to address these deeply structural issues? AQUINO: One of the current issues that has been brought up by the Philippine Senate has been our emphasis on conditional cash transfers in the budget. They say that these handouts are not the solution and we should go back to the traditional methods of having -- rely on trickle-down economics as the key towards uplifting the lot of our people. We are of the opinion that we have something like 4.6 million families severely under the poverty line. And if we are not able to help them get even the basics and also at the same time ensure that they keep their students in school and also receive the proper inoculations for monitoring various health conditions, they will forever be a drain on society and the problem just gets on getting worse rather than being solved. They cannot rely, I guess. And what I'm trying to say is -- you cannot rely on the traditional beliefs of the benefits of a growing economy eventually trickling down. So one might say that that might not be characteristic of a feudal setup, but rather a socialistic setup. And I've been called socialistic and communist at times in my life, you know? But again, it -- I think most of us subscribe to a -- pragmatically, because a lot of us are Christians, and we are responsible for our brothers. That's where it comes from. Now, we're -- how are we able to do that? Because there is a lot of interest in the private sector for major infrastructure projects so necessary that frees the budget for all of these social concerns. The emphasis on items that will empower the people -- micro finance, for instance; provision of more scholarships -- is, I think, proof that we do not want to maintain relationships or structures of institutions that say certain Filipinos have X rights and other Filipinos have X plus Y rights. We have gone after what were considered perhaps sacred cows in terms of our fight against tax evasion. One of the first -- the very first individual that -- so charged was -- did not find that -- posted returns that said he had no income for 12 years, but also managed to buy a Lamborghini vehicle in the same period, you know? (Scattered laughter.) Before, he was not even -- he was not even called to account for his actions. He was the first. Our Bureau of Internal Revenue files cases against these major tax evaders every other week. In between, the Bureau of Customs files cases against smugglers. So to date we have already filed at least several for -- against smugglers, several against tax evaders. Our biggest businessman (at home ?) received one promise from me during the campaign: We promise you that you will have a level playing field. When you are -- when President Marcos, I guess, started the crony capitalism issue, if there is one favorite, this entity does not become competitive. There's no inducement for him to become competitive. When we have to open up our doors to global trade, we could not compete because this guy has been subsidized and sheltered for such a long time. But we will promise you the government will help -- no, will assist you, becomes your partner, does not seek to make you a milking cow, but rather as a -- we'll provide the milieu whereby you can prosper and rise to the levels of your competitiveness. That in turn hopefully will be the long -- the parting of the seas for the long-term strategy of our ability to compete globally. So I cannot subscribe to the idea that we will retain our privileges for a select few and keep us moribund in a situation where there's no potential for growth. Thank you. BRADLEY: Someone right here. QUESTIONER: Hello, Mr. President. I'm Ken Roth, from Human Rights Watch. You spoke in your opening remarks about ASEAN as a vehicle for promoting democratic values. And I think it's safe to say that the most controversial member of ASEAN has been Burma. Now, ASEAN has been a tool for engaging with Burma, and that's not going to change. But your predecessors as president, including your mother, all recognized the need for pressure in addition to engagement. They were all quite outspoken about Burmese abuses. Today the new effort to ratchet up pressure is being introduced at the United Nations in an effort to create a commission of inquiry to look into the atrocities committed by the junta as a way of being clear that ASEAN and the world will not stand for those atrocities and to try to prevent them from spilling over into the future. Is that an effort that your government would support? AQUINO: Can I -- can I just speak on behalf of the Philippines? I just met with one of my counterparts. With respect to the plight now of Burma, especially personified by Aung San Suu Kyi, a person my mother admired and perhaps can identify with, has been -- has merited my support in various petitions, various resolutions when I was a member of the legislature. A few weeks ago, perhaps a month ago, I did talk to another ASEAN leader. And this guy is a freedom fighter, and he opened my eyes to the other side of the coin. And his premise went something like this: If the junta in Burma goes, you will have so many divergent groups, you will probably have an unstable country -- for the near future. His premise was this junta is, in a sense, the stabilizing part of that. That was the first time I ever really was introduced to that concept. I believe that any government that does not truly have the mandate of its people is actually just postponing the inevitable where conflict and national tensions will come to the forefront. And if there is instability in Burma, that affects the whole region. We will be compelled to assist in the case of people who flee, as in the case of Vietnam in the past where we became -- we became hosts for a whole lot of Vietnamese boat people. And it behooves us to really try and help them achieve stability and a resolution of all of these tensions where the mandate of the people is not really that clear. Towards that end, we will encourage all the other members of ASEAN to revisit this engagement policy, and we will ask what is the best method of dealing with a regime that basically tells the whole world we don't care what your opinion is. We recognize our limitations, but again, it will not stop us in trying to promote that which will bring the mandate of the people to the forefront. And be the key towards long-term stability, not only for Burma, but the rest of the region. BRADLEY: At the Atlantic, we have a term that we use for the kind of public speaking that comes at the very end of the meeting. We call it the Elizabeth Taylor School of Public Speaking. (Laughter.) So as Elizabeth said to each of her five successive husbands, I won't be keeping you long. (Laughter, applause.) You've honored us by coming today. Thank you very much. (C) COPYRIGHT 2010, FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC., 1000 VERMONT AVE. NW; 5TH FLOOR; WASHINGTON, DC - 20005, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ANY REPRODUCTION, REDISTRIBUTION OR RETRANSMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED. UNAUTHORIZED REPRODUCTION, REDISTRIBUTION OR RETRANSMISSION CONSTITUTES A MISAPPROPRIATION UNDER APPLICABLE UNFAIR COMPETITION LAW, AND FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC. RESERVES THE RIGHT TO PURSUE ALL REMEDIES AVAILABLE TO IT IN RESPECT TO SUCH MISAPPROPRIATION. FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC. IS A PRIVATE FIRM AND IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. NO COPYRIGHT IS CLAIMED AS TO ANY PART OF THE ORIGINAL WORK PREPARED BY A UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT OFFICER OR EMPLOYEE AS PART OF THAT PERSON'S OFFICIAL DUTIES. FOR INFORMATION ON SUBSCRIBING TO FNS, PLEASE CALL CARINA NYBERG AT 202-347-1400. THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT.
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