Pakistan

Ashlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, and Gabriel Walker look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. Xi Jinping visits the United Kingdom. Fresh off his trip to the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping made an official visit to the UK, meeting with Queen Elizabeth II and Prime Minister David Cameron. As with Xi’s U.S. trip, PRC propagandists have pulled no punches, airing warm and fuzzy videos explaining how good China-UK relations are and showing thousands of Chinese nationals “spontaneously” lining London’s streets to wave pro-China banners shipped in by the country’s UK embassy. Xi and Cameron signed an agreement to cooperate on cyber crime very similar to the one Xi negotiated with the U.S. last month. Xi has sweetened his UK visit with the announcement of more than $46 billion of Chinese investment into the country; in response, some have accused Cameron and his government of sucking up to the Chinese. The friendly atmosphere with which Xi was greeted stands in contrast to that in the U.S. last month, where Xi was met with the threat of economic sanctions and companies worried about China’s business climate. 2. First case of cancer linked to Fukushima. On Tuesday, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare announced that a former Fukushima nuclear plant worker will receive compensation for leukemia he developed as a result of participating in the plant cleanup effort. Although the forty-one-year-old man, who worked on the site for a year and was said to have been exposed to “relatively low” amounts of radiation, is the first person to receive compensation for his illness, he likely will not be the last. More than twenty thousand others have been exposed to enough radiation to have subsequent cancers qualify as occupational illnesses. The Tokyo Electric Power Company, or Tepco, which owns the plant, has long been criticized for its cleanup practices and treatment of private contractors, who on average are exposed to much more radiation than company employees. Despite the billions of dollars spent on decontamination efforts, and the fact that radiation levels in many nearby communities have returned to safe levels, occupational cancer diagnoses like this week’s may hinder government efforts to encourage displaced residents to return home. 3. Korean families reunite. Approximately 640 South Koreans and 330 North Koreans are participating in two sets of reunions this week at North Korea’s Kumgang Mountain resort. Over the past six decades reunions between families split across the two Koreas have been rare, and the only other reunion to have taken place in the last five years was in February 2014. Cancellation of the meetings are frequent due to changes in the political climate. In September 2013, for example, the North Korean government cancelled a scheduled set of reunions and threatened to call off this round as well following a critique of North Korea’s human rights situation by South Korean President Park Geun-hye. A total of 18,800 Koreans have participated in all reunions, but an estimated 130,000 South Koreans were recorded in the government’s database as being separated from family members in North Korea. Just 66,000 remain on the list, as the rest are now deceased. Given the advanced age of many still on the waiting list, South Korea has given preference to elderly applicants in the lottery selection. 4. In a familiar gesture, Washington extends sale of new F-16s to Islamabad. During Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s visit to the United States this week, Washington had hoped to reach a deal addressing Pakistan’s expanding arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons. When Pakistan insisted they would not accept any limits on their nukes, Washington proceeded with plans to sell the country eight new F-16 fighter jets—a sale that many view skeptically due to the aircraft’s limited utility in counterterrorism operations. Following the recent announcement that the United States would maintain a presence in Afghanistan beyond 2016, the two sides discussed the regional security situation and the need for an Afghan-led peace process. The United States underlined “Pakistan’s role as a key counterterrorism partner” while continuing to press Pakistan to take action against all terrorist groups operating on Pakistani soil, including Laskhar-e-Taiba and the Haqqani network. The leaders also agreed to double down on the U.S.-Pakistan Knowledge Corridor, among other education and technology initiatives, and announced a new U.S.-Pakistan Clean Energy Partnership. Prime Minister Sharif invited business leaders to invest in Pakistan, insisting that the security situation had improved and that it would help to achieve regional integration and connectivity. 5. Typhoon hits the Philippines. A powerful storm named Typhoon Koppu struck the Philippines earlier this week, causing tens of thousands of people to flee their homes. The typhoon hit the Philippine’s main island, Luzon, and lingered there for three days. Currently the death toll stands at fifty-four. Torrential rains caused by the typhoon have submerged coastal fishing and farming villages under almost ten feet of water in some places. This is the second typhoon to hit the Philippines this year, and the combined effect of the flooding has forced an estimated half a million people from their dwellings. The Philippines is struck by an average of twenty typhoons per year. Bonus: Singaporean megachurch leaders convicted of fraud. Six Singaporean religious leaders were convicted in a case involving the unlikely combination of pop music, megachurches, and fraud. The individuals were members of the City Harvest Church, founded by Pastor Kong Hee, whose wife, Sun Ho, used church funds to launch her pop career. The group was accused of using an initial twenty-four million Singaporean dollars to pay for Ho’s singing, and then spending another twenty-six million Singaporean dollars to cover up the operation. Originally, Ho’s songs were intended to spread her faith, but her music gradually became more risqué. While her career never truly took off, she did appear in a 2007 song and music video with Wyclef Jean, a Grammy Award–winning musician. The trial, which lasted for nearly three years, drew much attention in Singapore, where the church has a congregation of over 17,500. Such a high-profile corruption scandal is unusual in Singapore, which is renowned for its clean government and rule of law. City Harvest Church also has numerous affiliate churches abroad, and the scandal may cast new light on the practices of other megachurches in Asia.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is in Washington for long-awaited consultations with U.S. President Barack Obama. Press reports in the week preceding the visit flagged the possibility of a limited “civil nuclear deal” under discussion as a gambit to persuade Pakistan to stop developing battlefield tactical nuclear weapons, but that conversation ended when Pakistani officials told the media that “Islamabad will not accept limits on its use of small tactical nuclear weapons.” The strategic transaction from the Sharif-Obama meeting now appears, echoing the hoary past, to be another tranche of F16 fighter jets, only the latest in a long cascade of questionable hardware sales with unclear counterterror utility. Does anyone benefit from this exchange? It is hard to see any value to Pakistani citizens, apart from the limited coterie of military officials who would welcome such hardware. But F16s are not typically the first military resource to deal with terrorists, including those in urban environments, and tackling terrorism is Pakistan’s most urgent priority. The United States has provided F16s, and upgrades to them, to Islamabad for decades, but Pakistan remains a partner that has not fully acted against terrorists; designated individuals under UN sanctions continue to live openly in Pakistan. Sharif’s visit this week has brought with it some commentary on how U.S. reliance on the Pakistani military has undermined the health of its civilian institutions over decades. This is surely an inarguable point. What has not been the subject of greater focus is what Pakistan’s “garrison state” civil-military imbalance has meant for the well-being of its citizens. The answer is grim. Usually it is difficult to assess a “what might have been” scenario for a country, for every place has its own unique situation and history. But the fact that Bangladesh, the East Wing of Pakistan until 1971, has  charted out a different course in human development over the past forty-plus years offers the best opportunity to see a “living counterfactual”—the policies Pakistan could have chosen but did not. Pakistan continues to overinvest in the military and underinvest in the human development areas so crucial for creating a strong, healthy, productive society—and the end result shows up in lower development indicators in crucial areas. The UN Human Development Index (HDI) tallies a great deal of data, and the comparison across several indicators for Bangladesh and Pakistan is instructive. In the comprehensive overall measure, the HDI ranking, Bangladesh comes in at 142, ahead of Pakistan’s 146. Those four places in the ranking mean the difference between coming in at the tail end of what the UN considers “medium human development” versus “low human development.” Pakistan is in the “low” category. In addition, in the female-to-male HDI ratio, Bangladesh comes closer to parity with a 0.91 ratio, compared with Pakistan’s 0.75. Other countries with a female-to-male HDI ratio below 0.8 include Yemen, Mali, and Central African Republic.   Source: 2014 Human Development Trends by Indicator, United Nations Development Programme.   The literacy rate in Bangladesh is 57.7 percent, and in Pakistan 54.9 percent. Bangladeshis have a life expectancy of 70.7 years, compared with Pakistan’s 66.6 years. Bangladesh’s annual population growth is slower at 1.1 percent than Pakistan’s at 1.8 percent. Bangladesh’s maternal mortality ratio is close to Pakistan’s, with 240 compared with Pakistan’s 260 deaths per 100,000 live births. But Bangladeshi children are far more likely to survive beyond age five: Bangladesh’s under-five mortality rate is forty-one per 1,000 live births, and Pakistan’s is eighty-six. Both countries have a similar metric on under-five child stunting, so there is not a great gap there. Apart from a couple similarities, all of these indicators paint a picture of Bangladesh as a country better educating its citizens, helping them live longer, helping ensure that children survive, and controlling population growth better. Things become much more skewed in other metrics. Bangladesh devotes 3.7 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to health, compared with Pakistan’s 2.5 percent. Alarmingly, Pakistan’s homicide rate, 7.8 per 100,000, is nearly triple Bangladesh’s 2.7. Pakistan’s homicide rate more closely resembles those of  Bolivia or Zimbabwe, both at 7.7 per 100,000. Bangladeshi women are far more likely to bear children during the ages of fifteen to nineteen, with its adolescent birth rate at 88.7 births per one thousand women compared with Pakistan’s 30.9 births per one thousand women, but they are also far more likely to be in the workforce. Bangladesh’s female-to-male labor force participation rate is 0.681, compared with Pakistan’s 0.294. Although its economy has been growing at or around 6 percent for much of the last twenty years, Bangladesh remains poorer on a per capita basis than Pakistan. GDP per capita in Bangladesh (2011 data in purchasing power parity terms) was $2,364 compared with Pakistan’s $4,360. This means that despite being poorer, Bangladesh has managed to notch up better development outcomes on most of the major metrics compared with Pakistan. Bangladesh started out far behind Pakistan, but has been closing the gap. All of this points to the separate paths the citizens and their leaders chose. The outcomes seen in Bangladesh are the result of policy choices focused on delivering better health to all and a more equal environment for women. It shows that deliberate policies can create change, and governments can better the lives of citizens even starting from a situation of impoverishment. Bangladesh was once Henry Kissinger’s “basket case,” but it has moved far away from its earlier woes. Pakistani citizens deserve that chance as well. By repeatedly overprioritizing the goals of its military, rather than the more comprehensive ambition of offering all citizens a better shot at living longer, healthier, more rewarding and productive lives, Pakistani leaders are failing on the basic social contract with their society. Washington ought to focus its assistance in this direction, instead of leading with F16s. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa [*EDITOR’S NOTE: An earlier version of this blog post incorrectly stated the adolescent birth rates in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Instead of 88.7 percent and 30.9 percent, the statistics should have been expressed as 88.7 births per one thousand women in Bangladesh, and 30.9 births per one thousand women in Pakistan, as stated correctly in the chart.]

Emerging Voices features contributions from scholars and practitioners highlighting new research, thinking, and approaches to development challenges. This post is from Nadia Naviwala (@NadiaNavi), an Islamabad-based researcher and writer. Here she details a recent New York Times story on U.S. development assistance in Pakistan, and explains why investigating aid efforts there requires a different approach. The New York Times published a story last month about the second largest United States Agency for International Development (USAID) mission in the world: Pakistan. The Times argued that despite over a decade of work and billions of dollars, “aid has had minimal impact on the ground,” thanks to overreliance on “American contractors with little development experience,” and corrupt Pakistani subcontractors that don’t do the work or return equipment. As a former country representative for the United States Institute of Peace (USIP), a USAID desk officer, and a Congressional staff member who helped to lead the creation of the Commission on Wartime Contracting, I have been involved in U.S. assistance efforts in Pakistan since 2009. My research and experience with Pakistani civil society made me an early and vocal critic of foreign-led development efforts in Pakistan. Yet the Times story’s criticisms are not supported by the evidence. A Lawyer in Peshawar Sues USAID The Times story centered on a USAID contract in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) terminated in 2010 for waste, fraud, and abuse. As the Times told it, three lawyers in Peshawar accuse USAID of failing to recover U.S. taxpayer money from a court settlement that awarded the agency damages. It continues: “A recent lawsuit against the agency highlighted the challenges and image problem it faces in a country where American aid is often viewed with suspicion… “Documents and correspondence filed by the lawyers lay bare the money and equipment that went to waste in a project in Pakistan’s insurgency-hit tribal areas…. “U.S.A.I.D. suspended Academy for Educational Development from United States government contracts…Academy for Educational Development was also awarded at least $300,000 after a drawn-out arbitration process with its Pakistani subcontractors — money that should have been returned to U.S.A.I.D. The Pakistani lawyers who filed the suit said that the aid agency had made no attempt to recover the money. “For many Pakistanis, the case is another puzzling instance of wastefulness. ‘This is U.S. taxpayer money,’ Sanaullah Khan, one of the lawyers, said. ‘Why is U.S.A.I.D. walking away from an ongoing legal process?’” The unasked question is, why did a Pakistani lawyer in Peshawar dedicate his time (unpaid) to chase American taxpayer money? After contacting Sanaullah Khan, one of the lawyers involved in the suit, it became clear that the Times is conflating two sets of cases. The first relates to local court battles over contracting corruption, for work USAID supported in Pakistan before 2010. The more recent lawsuit is over unpaid legal fees that have nothing to do with the development agency’s impact there. In 2010, USAID discovered corruption tied to the Academy for Educational Development (AED), a U.S. contractor working in FATA, thanks to a whistleblower who wrote a letter to President Obama. Khan, AED’s Director of Legal Affairs at the time, says he was left behind to fight off subcontractors after USAID cut ties and AED dissolved. Engineering subcontractors then sued AED for around $9 million, though a Peshawar court in 2013 decided these claims were illegitimate. They awarded damages in the other direction—subcontractors were to pay AED a total of $300,000, while AED owed them only $60,000. As to why USAID is not getting involved in the legal process to claim this $300,000 (which is still tied up in appeals), the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad explains: “AED’s subcontractors are not and were never in a contractual relationship with USAID. Because USAID’s contract was with AED and not with AED’s subcontractors, there is and was no legal way for USAID to recover funds.” In addition, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) reached a settlement with AED in 2011. According to the terms, AED paid USAID $5.3 million dollars, plus another $350,000, plus the company’s remaining cash assets—possibly totaling over $15 million. It released both parties from future claims. Khan is now suing the dissolved AED in a Peshawar court for $750,000 in unpaid legal fees (the second case). Khan named USAID’s Pakistan mission director in the claim and asked the court to freeze USAID’s bank accounts in the country until he is repaid. His case faces a challenge by the 2011 DOJ settlement that specifically states the U.S. government is not liable for AED’s lawyers’ fees. In the Court of Public Opinion Khan likely hoped the Times publicity would help advance his cause. Less clear is why the Times extrapolates these cases to make their own about USAID’s minimal impact in Pakistan when the details undermine their argument. The fraud the Times describes happened over five years ago—before the implementation of the $7.5 billion, five-year aid program (known as the Kerry-Lugar-Berman Act) that the story calls into question. Further, the Obama administration acted swiftly and severely against AED’s corruption, effectively “killing” the company. They touted AED’s investigation and suspension as a success story in USAID accountability. The Times’ editors likely realized the overreach and within days of publication changed the title from, “In Pakistan, U.S. Aid Agency Produces Dubious Results,” to “In Pakistan, U.S. Aid Agency Faces Skepticism.” (They also added a lengthy editor’s note about their interactions with USAID in reporting the story.) Surprisingly Khan is not among the skeptics of U.S. development programs. He supports the work AED and USAID did in FATA. “Only the engineering team was involved in corruption. The rest of the program was good and useful. I’d say ninety percent of all other components—in agriculture, health, education, training, development, there are many—worked tremendously well.” Contracting with Governments The Times’ criticism—and its focus on U.S. contractor relationships as a source of the problem—detracts from more useful scrutiny of USAID’s work in Pakistan over the past five years. In 2009, around the time of the AED scandal and the new multi-billion dollar aid package, USAID reorganized the way it implements projects in Pakistan. The agency terminated contracts with U.S.-based companies (at the behest of the late Ambassador Richard Holbrooke, then U.S. envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan) and started shifting funding to local partners, primarily the Pakistani government. The Pakistan package has since been one of the largest experiments in contracting with a foreign government—referred to as government-to-government or “G2G” assistance—in the world. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), between 2010 and 2014, the value of G2G contracts in Afghanistan and Pakistan exceeded the total value of contracts with all other foreign governments (see: Figure 1). U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), "USAID Has Taken Steps to Safeguard Government-to-Government Funding but Could Further Strengthen Accountability," 2015. The approach is not without flaws. G2G would be more aptly named B2B, or bureaucracy-to-bureaucracy. The slow pace has been a huge frustration to both Pakistani and U.S. officials and prompted the gradual reintroduction of U.S. contractors in complex arrangements with government institutions— a relationship worth investigating. The Times makes an important point that whether U.S. money is lost to graft and waste matters, but fails to substantiate it. A more valuable question is whether U.S.-funded projects in Pakistan, including schools, clinics, roads, and power and water infrastructure, are operating and can be sustained once handed over to local governments. And whether the hundreds of millions the U.S. invested in training, capacity-building, policy, and advocacy programs are helping to meet that goal.

Ashlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, Ayumi Teraoka, and Gabriel Walker look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. Singapore’s historic elections. Singaporeans took to the polls today in the first general parliamentary election in the country’s history in which every constituency is contested. The People’s Action Party (PAP), which has ruled the country since it was expelled from Malaysia in 1965 and held more than 90 percent of the seats in parliament prior to the election, won a majority of seats again. However, the elections were a test for the PAP, which fared worse in the 2011 elections than it ever had before and has been criticized recently over its policies on immigration and social welfare. This was also the first election since the death of legendary PAP founder (and father of current prime minister Lee Hsien Loong) Lee Kuan Yew, who ruled Singapore as prime minister for more than forty years. 2. Thailand’s junta rejects draft constitution. Thailand’s junta-appointed reform council rejected a proposed constitution last Sunday—a constitution that had been written by its own drafting committee. As a result, Thailand’s next election will not take place until April 2017 at the earliest. The rejection of this draft will ensure that the junta stays in power at least until that time. The sticking point of this current draft was a provision that allowed for a panel of majority military members to take control of the government during “crisis” situations. If this version had passed, it would have been the twentieth constitution in eighty-three years. The military junta will now appoint another drafting body to start from scratch on yet another constitution. 3. Abe Reelected. On Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was reelected without a vote as the president of Japan’s ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Despite the attempted challenge to Abe by Seiko Noda, who has served as a minister in various cabinets and taken key leadership roles within LDP, not one individual in the party was able to garner enough support to enter the race—precisely twenty signatures from party lawmakers—while Abe received support from all seven factions of the party and four groups of members who do not belong to the factions. Reportedly, Abe himself was insistent on having no vote in this election to show party unity, and instead focused on passing controversial security bills later this month. This reelection extends his tenure as the head of LDP to the end of September 2018. He plans to reshuffle his cabinet in early October and shift focus away from security issues to emphasize economics. 4. Twelve convicted for 2006 train bombing in Mumbai. Nine years after simultaneous bombs detonated on seven commuter trains and at a train station during an evening rush hour, leaving close to two hundred dead and eight hundred injured, a Mumbai court handed guilty sentences to twelve individuals for the attack. The men involved in the blasts were members of the Student Islamic Movement of India and thought to have plotted with the help of the Pakistan-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, according to the prosecution. Lashkar-e-Taiba, the group that carried out other attacks in Mumbai in 2008, denies any involvement in the 2006 train blasts. Although charges against the men were filed four months after the incident, evidence was scant and police had to rely on call records to connect the conspirators. While one of the thirteen men charged was acquitted, the twelve convicted face life in prison or death. 5. Yakuza split in Japan. Yamaguchi-gumi, a prominent yakuza or Japanese organized crime syndicate, divided in early September with the establishment of a new group called Kobe Yamaguchi-gumi. The new group will include approximately three thousand members under the leadership of Kunio Inoue, who formerly directed an affiliate of Yamaguchi-gumi. The split was attributed to resentment of the current leadership and a regional power struggle between gang leaders in Kobe and Nagoya regarding the location of the group’s headquarters. News of the divide ignited fears that deadly violence could break out as occurred in the aftermath of another yakuza split in 1984. However, given the increased severity of anti-gang laws in Japan and the weakening financial positions of the yakuza, some believe the violence may be limited to just a few skirmishes. Yamaguchi-gumi is Japan’s largest yakuza and is estimated to be the world’s wealthiest organized crime group, with revenues of approximately eighty billion dollars in 2014. Bonus: Onomishi’s cat cam. In a country where it’s easy to get a feline fix on one of eleven cat islands or at a cat café, the city of Onomishi in Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan, has developed its own Google Street View–like map aimed at giving tourists a cat’s-eye view of its local streets. The interactive map, which was developed by Hiroshima’s tourism department using a 360-degree camera, allows users to peer through the eyes of Lala, Hiroshima’s “Manager of Backstreet Tourism,” while learning about the city’s tourist attractions, shops, and even other neighborhood cats. The effort may be part of a broader push to attract overseas visitors, who are a boon to Japan’s flagging economy. In 2014, a record 13.4 million tourists visited the country, which hopes to have twenty million visitors a year by the 2020 Olympic Games in Tokyo.

Ashlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Lauren Dickey, Ayumi Teraoka, and Gabriel Walker look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. China’s stock plunge. Chinese stocks plunged this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 22 percent between August 19 and August 24. The market’s drop on what was deemed “Black Monday” erased the gains made over the past year. Until June, the Shanghai Composite Index had risen nearly 150 percent in one year and state media had assured that this was just the start of a bull market. The Chinese market’s tumble rattled stock markets around the world. Commodities were particularly hard hit and the price of oil sunk to a six-year low. While some pointed to China’s recent devaluation of the yuan as the source of investors’ concerns, others argued that the fall in the beginning of the week occurred because investors had mistakenly expected the government to act early and cut interest rates or otherwise intervene to stabilize the markets over the weekend. Instead, the People’s Bank of China cut the nation’s benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percent on Tuesday. While there were some big losers in this week’s stock market crash, including Asia’s wealthiest individual Wang Jianlin who lost $3.6 billion on Monday, overall the share of household wealth invested in stocks in China is less than 20 percent, significantly smaller than the share in the U.S. 2. Eleven killed in Nepal protests. Thousands of people turned out to protest a planned federal division of the country in the city of Kailali earlier this week, disobeying a government curfew. Eleven people were killed after protesters attacked police. Government officials sent in armed forces in response and claimed that individuals slipping across the border from India had played a part in the violence. The Nepalese Constituent Assembly, which has ruled Nepal since the end of the civil war that overthrew the monarchy in 2008, initially planned to organize the country into fourteen provinces, half of which would be drawn along ethnic lines. After they dropped that plan in favor of a seven province division, members of the Tharu ethnic group took to the streets, concerned about political marginalization under the new plan. Disagreements about how to give representation to the more than one hundred ethnic groups in Nepal have stymied progress on the constitution for seven years. The Tharu people are not alone in their concerns; members of the Madhesi community protested a similar plan just two weeks ago. 3. India-Pakistan engagement topples. Following the meeting of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in Ufa, Russia, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit last month, progress has stalled again. This week, Pakistan canceled national security advisor–level talks at the last minute—a step spelled out in the joint statement released in Ufa following the prime ministers’ meeting. The cancelation arose due to varying interpretations of what the meeting agenda should include: India insisted that the talks cover solely terrorism, while Pakistan wanted to include dialogue on Kashmir. Furthermore, Pakistani National Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz was scheduled to attend a reception with Kashmiri separatist leaders immediately prior to the meeting with his counterpart in New Delhi, crossing a redline India has underscored. This is against the backdrop of a recent terrorist attack in Jammu in which the attacker admitted he was trained by the UN- and U.S.-designated terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba. While some insist the cancellation is only a minor setback in the long diplomatic game, others believe attempts to normalize relations only serve optical purposes. 4. Caste-related violence in India’s Gujarat state. Clashes in Ahmedabad began this week following a huge rally by the affluent Patidar community. The Patels, as they are commonly known, have been pushing for inclusion in India’s caste-based quota system despite being relatively well-off as a result of their work in the diamond trade and other successful businesses. Gujarati government officials, led by another Patidar, have ruled out including the community in the “other backward classes” category of the caste system, a designation that would give Patels a leg up in getting civil service jobs, university spots, and other societal benefits. Thousands of security forces were deployed by midweek after violence between police and Patel demonstrators left eight dead and police stations in ruins. Prime Minister Modi has appealed for calm in his home state, urging democratic protests and dialogue to resolve the ongoing tensions. 5. Japan protests Medvedev’s visit to disputed island. On Saturday Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev paid a visit to one of the four islands disputed between Russia and Japan since the end of World War II, a sore point in relations that has kept the two countries from signing a peace treaty ever since. Japan’s Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida lodged a protest, and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has been eager to work with President Vladimir Putin on the issue, called it “extremely regrettable.” This is not the first time Mr. Medvedev has traveled to the disputed territory; as president, he first visited one of the islands in 2010, drawing a “furious reaction” from Japan. Two days after the visit, Abe clearly noted that he will still continue talks with Putin to resolve this longstanding issue. What is unknown, however, is Putin’s thoughts behind this visit. He has recently expressed that the dispute can be resolved and the countries are working on his possible visit to Japan later this year. Medvedev’s trip may be a message from Putin to his Japanese counterpart that Russia has little on which to compromise. Bonus: Goldman Shenzhen Sachs. In a southern Chinese city famous for fakes, one organization has recently been discovered with a moniker suspiciously similar to that of Goldman Sachs, the New York–based financial institution. “Goldman Sachs (Shenzhen) Financial Leasing Company,” which also happens to share an identical Chinese name (高盛) with the better-known enterprise, has operated in Shenzhen for more than two years just a short distance from the Asia headquarters of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong (a spokesperson for the latter institution confirmed there was no link between the companies). The Shenzhen company came to light through an investigation of supposed links to gambling and organized crime in Macau. This incident is only the latest in a spate of copycat Chinese companies, including nearly two dozen fake Apple stores, an IKEA replica, and a familiar-looking “Bucksstar Coffee” and “McDnoald’s” in a Nanjing mall.

Over the weekend, Pakistan’s national security advisor, Sartaj Aziz, called off planned talks with India’s national security advisor after a series of public disagreements escalated to the point of no return. Islamabad and New Delhi failed to agree on the scope of the agenda, despite a clear joint statement issued by Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi during their meeting last month in Ufa, Russia, which had set the parameters for India-Pakistan dialogue in coming months. Most press accounts indicate that Pakistan sought to expand the NSAs’ agenda from the single subject of “terrorism” agreed upon at Ufa to include discussion of Kashmir. Compounding things, India reiterated its redline, developed by the Modi government last summer, against Pakistani officials meeting with separatists from Jammu and Kashmir on the margins of Indo-Pak talks. The Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi invited Kashmiri separatists to a reception, so between the redline and the soiree invite grew an impasse. The Pakistani external affairs ministry statement issued August 22, canceling the NSA meeting, stated that talks “would not serve any purpose, if conducted on the basis of the two conditions laid down” [by India]. Pakistan’s position is that India and Pakistan have many issues to discuss, and terrorism has always been part of a larger composite dialogue. Islamabad believes talks have little value if not covering the full range of matters in dispute, of which no doubt the two neighbors have many. New Delhi has maintained that “talks and terror” cannot go together, reiterated by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in her August 22 press conference about the talks, and that tackling terrorism should be the first step toward a sequenced resumption of a fuller dialogue. Let’s put aside quibbles over a meeting agenda and whether and how Pakistani officials should or should not meet with Kashmiri separatists. Here’s the larger context for the aborted India-Pakistan NSA talks: About a month ago, on July 27, terrorists attacked across the international border, in Gurdaspur, in Indian Punjab. On August 5, another attack took place in Udhampur, in the Jammu region of Jammu & Kashmir. One of the attackers was caught, said his name was Naveed Yakub from Faisalabad (in Pakistan), and that he had been trained by the Lashkar-e-Taiba. Each of these incidents generated speculation that India would call off the NSA meet, but New Delhi did not let the attacks undo the promise made by Modi and Sharif at Ufa. That India and Pakistan were unable to agree on the agenda and the appropriate way to handle questions of Kashmir is certainly unfortunate. But make no mistake: given the history of terrorist attacks on India emanating from Pakistani territory over the past two decades, the onus now rests with Pakistan to step forward and ensure a terror-free atmosphere for discussion of difficult political matters. Yes, Pakistanis too are victims of terror, and that is not in dispute. But the state has international obligations in countering terror, not least in upholding the sanctions regime put in place by United Nations Security Council resolutions. Aziz did not address the issue of Pakistan-based terror, instead launching into Soviet-style whataboutism, brandishing a dossier about alleged Indian involvement in Baluchistan and complaining that India offers insufficient evidence to support its allegations of terror groups in Pakistan. What has Pakistan done to tackle terror groups operating from its soil? Pakistan selectively mounts counterterrorism campaigns in one part of the country, while permitting a UN and U.S.-designated terrorist organization, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, and its leader Hafiz Saeed to openly hold public rallies and continue “humanitarian” work and alms collection in its largest cities like Lahore and Karachi. The perpetrators of the 2008 Mumbai attacks have not been brought to justice either, with a trial submerged by delays ad infinitum, and with one of the conspirators released on bail this year. The Haqqani network, another organization under UN and U.S. terrorism designations, appears untouched by Pakistan’s selective counterterrorism effort, and following Taliban leader Mullah Omar’s death, a Haqqani has now ascended to the leadership ranks of the Taliban. In belated recognition of this problem, the Obama administration has apparently withheld certification that Pakistan’s counterterrorism campaign has damaged the Haqqani network. These are only the barest outlines of the problem; suffice it to say that none of this looks like a state fighting comprehensively to rid the country of the scourge of terrorism. No one disputes that India and Pakistan have a terrible relationship, and could draw up a laundry list of an agenda even longer than the eight points of their current dialogue structure. Frankly, they probably should. But Pakistan needs to stop shifting the blame from the terrorism problem that is chewing up its own society and causing enmity with its neighbors. (Pakistan’s problems are not just with India: Two weeks ago a frustrated President Ashraf Ghani called upon Pakistan to rein in the terrorists who attack Afghanistan.) But instead of expressions of remorse about the lost opportunity for the NSAs to meet, on August 24 the Pakistani paper Dawn quoted Aziz saying, “Modi’s India acts as if they are a regional superpower, we are a nuclear-armed country and we know how to defend ourselves.” Does this sound like a country serious about negotiations and taking steps to resolve decades-long disputes? It’s Pakistan’s job to restore India’s, and the world’s, confidence in its intentions, and that will not happen with continued terrorist attacks across the border in India, and with blustery rhetoric about using nuclear weapons.  Tackling terror, all terror, should be job number one for Islamabad. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, William Piekos,  Ariella Rotenberg, Ayumi Teraoka, and Gabriel Walker look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. China to embed Ministry of Public Security units in Internet companies. Cybersecurity police units will soon be posted within major Internet companies in China, in order to more quickly and effectively prevent criminal activities such as fraud, online theft, and rumormongering. The move is especially direct for a government that largely expects companies to comply with censorship regulations and already employs millions of microblog monitors. In recent years, China has tightened oversight over social media and websites in a push to rewrite the rules of the global Internet, and lawmakers are currently reviewing public comments to a new cybersecurity law that gives the government extensive ability to control the flow of online information. The announcement also comes at a time of tense relations between the United States and China over cybersecurity, after a determination by the Obama administration to retaliate for the recent Office of Personnel Management cyberattack, though not publicly attributed to Beijing. 2. Japan keeps its cool in response to United States spying allegations. WikiLeaks released documents last Friday alleging that the National Security Agency (NSA) had conducted surveillance on the phone lines of top officials in the Japanese government, including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. According to the documents, the NSA was able to gather sensitive information about internal deliberations on trade issues and had been conducting the surveillance since 2006. Japan’s response has been muted, a direct contrast to similar cases in Germany, France, and Brazil, whose governments responded with outrage when it was revealed that the NSA had been collecting data on their leaders. The Abe Cabinet only called the allegations “deeply regrettable,” and Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Sadakazu Tanigaki said that leaders today need to make “statements on the assumption that wire-tapping does happen.” Although Abe asked U.S. Vice President Joe Biden to investigate the allegations, Japan may be seeking to downplay the spying issue because it is aiming to strengthen its alliance with the United States, and Abe is seeking to pass controversial security legislation by the end of September. 3. China’s central bank to regulate online finance. Last Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) released draft regulations for Internet finance platforms, a $1.28 trillion industry of online payment and wealth management tools that’s been driven by the rapid growth of ecommerce in China in recent years. The proposed rules would cap payments at 5,000 RMB ($800) per day, prohibit peer-to-peer payments, and require users to register their real names to access the services. Instead, PBOC wants people to go through state-owned banks for online transactions, claiming this will be more secure for users. The rules are open for public comment until August 28. Chinese citizens have so far responded with outrage, and China’s Internet regulators may not be on board with the rules, either. 4. Pakistan’s military courts empowered to pass death sentences on civilians. On Wednesday, Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled that secret military courts are legal and permitted to sentence civilians to death. After Taliban gunmen massacred 134 children at an army-run school in December, Pakistan’s military courts were given the authority to put suspects on trial by way of a constitutional amendment passed in January. Advocates at human rights organizations such as Human Rights Watch are critical of this decision by the Supreme Court and see it as further undermining the civilian justice system, which is already rife with corruption and delay. Chief Justice Nasir-ul-Mulk noted in his decision that the court did not have the constitutional power to strike down amendments made by the Pakistani Parliament but the military court decisions could be subject to judicial review in a normal court. 5. Apple loses top spot in China mobile market to Xiaomi. The Chinese technology company Xiaomi had the largest share of the Chinese smartphone market in the second quarter of 2015, displacing Apple from the top spot, which it had occupied for the preceding two quarters. Huawei, another Chinese firm, ranked second, while Apple ranked third. Although Xiaomi only began selling smartphones in 2011, it has grown rapidly through its use of social networks for advertising and online sales. The decline in Apple’s share was partially attributed to the recent launch of new products by both Xiaomi and Huawei, while Apple last released a new smartphone in October. China is the world’s largest market for smartphones. Recently, however, sales have begun to slow as many Chinese consumers already own smartphones. Bonus: A hard week for the baijiu industry in China. More than 5,300 bottles of baijiu, a fiery Chinese grain liquor, were confiscated by food safety officials in Liuzhou, Guangxi, after the bottles were found to have been laced with Sildenafil, better known as Viagra. The distillers claimed the baijiu had “health-preserving qualities.” “Reduces blood pressure, improves sleep,” proclaimed one label, while another claimed the liquor was made with “Chinese herbs.” Sales of Viagra increased 47 percent in China last year after a campaign by Pfizer to educate the public about erectile dysfunction.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lincoln Davidson, Lauren Dickey, William Piekos, and Ariella Rotenberg look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Chinese government steps in to stop stock market slide. Authorities, who have spent the first half of the year crowing about high growth rates, launched a number of emergency measures aimed at slowing the market tumble. The People’s Bank of China announced this week that it would be helping the country’s margin trading service provider stabilize the market by buying more shares of small and medium enterprises. State-owned enterprises were ordered to not sell any of their stock, and corporate shareholders with stakes of more than 5 percent were banned from selling for six months. More than half the firms listed on the markets stopped trading, and another 38 percent hit the daily limit on price change, leaving just 11 percent of stocks in China tradable. Still, the rout of Chinese markets continued. Traders have responded with gallows humor, while some analysts have speculated that the precipitous drop in the markets might lead to social unrest. It’s unclear how far the markets will drop, but most analysts are predicting little systemic impact and a relatively quick return to growth. 2. Malaysian prime minister faces corruption allegations. Prime Minister Najib Razak is facing calls to resign after a Wall Street Journal report traced nearly $700 million of deposits into his personal bank account from the 1Malaysia Development Bhd. (1MDB), the country’s strategic development fund. Investigators have frozen bank accounts associated with the case and have raided the offices of 1MDB, while both 1MDB and Najib have denied wrongdoing. The fund, which is owned by Malaysia’s Finance Ministry, has financed itself by issuing more than $11 billion in debt. Though the fractured political opposition poses little threat to the prime minister, criticism from within his own governing party, and from political heavyweight and former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, could threaten Najib’s continued leadership. 3. Pakistan hosts peace talks between Afghan Taliban and the government in Kabul. Pakistan hosted a meeting between the two sides in an attempt to facilitate an end to the thirteen-year war. The Taliban in Afghanistan has been trying to re-establish its hard-line Islamist regime since it was toppled by the U.S. military intervention of 2001. While there was informal contact between the two parties prior to these talks, this was the first official meeting between Afghan Taliban leadership and the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. The Afghan Taliban political leader, Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, authorized the delegation to Islamabad despite opposition within his own party. Observers from the United States and China attended the talks, which took place on Tuesday and Wednesday; officials from both countries voiced their support for the process and hoped for a positive outcome to peace negotiations. At the conclusion of the meeting, the two sides agreed to meet again after the month of Ramadan. 4. North Korean sailors defect after ship goes astray. Three North Korean sailors have defected after their ship strayed into waters near Ulleungdo, an island off the northeast coast of South Korea. Their ship was sinking when the South Korean coast guard came to the rescue of the five sailors on board. While the North Korean government demanded that all five sailors be returned, only two will be repatriated via Panmunjom, the village contact point between the two nations. Meanwhile, with over seventy North Korean officials executed since Kim Jong-un came to power in 2011, reports of mid-ranking officials defecting to the south have increased, though such claims have been denied by officials in the South Korean Ministry of Unification. 5. China releases an initial draft of a long-expected cybersecurity law. The law (Chinese text and unofficial English translation) formally encodes a number of measures that have been implemented or announced as in the works over the last few months. To safeguard “cyberspace sovereignty”—Beijing’s term for the authority it claims over all Internet infrastructure, networks, and digital content within its borders—the law empowers officials to define standards for technical equipment and conduct security reviews of equipment procured by Internet service providers. Both measures may be used to keep foreign tech companies out of China and grow the domestic industry, a chief concern for Beijing as a result of both the Snowden revelations and China’s indigenous innovation policy. The law also gives provincial governments the authority to limit Internet access in the event of a “serious security breach.” That raises the prospect of a repeat of a 2009 telecommunications blackout in Xinjiang province, when authorities shut down the Internet for nine months in an attempt to suppress anti-government riots. BONUS: Shanghai’s firefly fans disappointed by cancelled park opening. Chinese citizens enamored with fireflies for their romantic and nostalgic appeal hoped to interact with the bugs in a firefly-themed park opening in Shanghai. Unfortunately, a Shanghai news portal announced that the sold-out opening would be canceled due to safety concerns. It’s a win for conservationists, who have been working to oppose the parks throughout China because of dwindling wild firefly populations, which are often imported into the parks.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lincoln Davidson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, William Piekos, and Ariella Rotenberg look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. U.S. and China meet in Washington, DC, for annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED). The talks, coming at a time of high tension between the two countries, managed to steer clear of acrimonious charges. The U.S. State Department highlighted 127 issues the two sides agreed upon at the S&ED, but agreements on China’s actions in the South China Sea and conflicting accusations of harmful activity in cyberspace were conspicuously absent. While both sides vowed to continue discussing a potential bilateral investment treaty, little was achieved on the economic side beyond platitudes about the importance of the US$590 billion of annual trade between the two countries. On a more positive note, U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew announced that China promised to limit currency interventions, a small victory in Treasury’s long fight to get China to liberalize the yuan. Moving forward, more dialogue between the two countries will be necessary to keep the relationship constructive; hopefully Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington in September will help with that. 2. Heat wave in Pakistan devastates during Ramadan. As of yesterday, the death toll had reached one thousand in the southern Sindh province of Pakistan as the heat wave continued unabated. While the inhabitants of Karachi, the provincial capital, are used to intense heat around this time of year, this year’s heat has been particularly brutal, with temperatures above 110 degrees Fahrenheit. Hospitals in Karachi—as well as morgues—are quickly running short on space. A substantial number of the deceased have come from the poorer parts of the city, where many are without electricity. The heat wave has coincided with the start of Ramadan, during which it is illegal for Muslims to eat or drink in public during daylight hours. Many clerics are urging members of their communities to avoid fasting if it puts their lives at risk. 3. Myanmar lawmakers vote to keep military veto powers. Myanmar’s military blocked parliamentary votes to rescind its veto power and refused to cut a rule preventing opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from eventually becoming president. The vote was no surprise, given that the military is constitutionally afforded a quarter of the seats in parliament, enough to block constitutional amendments. The votes do not, however, preclude other strategies Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, may deploy to put her in the country’s top leadership post. The reassertion of military power in the Myanmar’s political system leaves many skeptical of the country’s slow progress toward democratization. 4. The Philippines conducts joint drills in the South China Sea. This week, the Philippines navy held exercises with U.S. naval forces as well as a surveillance drill with the Japanese Self-Defense Force—only the second ever between Manila and Tokyo. Though the drills appear to be a reaction to China’s island-building activities in the South China Sea, a spokesman for the Philippines navy stated that “we are doing this for interoperability,” not to inflame maritime tensions. In addition, Admiral Katsutoshi Kawano, Japan’s top military commander, said that Japanese forces may join the United States in patrolling the South China Sea and that “the area is of the utmost importance for Japanese security.” The Chinese military’s response to the joint exercises was predictable; a defense ministry spokesman stated that “Certain countries are roping in countries from outside the region to get involved in the South China Sea issue, putting on a big show of force, deliberately exaggerating the tense atmosphere in the region." 5. New UN human rights office opens in Seoul. On Tuesday, the United Nations opened an office in Seoul to monitor and document human rights abuses in North Korea. The office is the result of a report released in February 2014 by the UN Commission of Inquiry (COI) on human rights in North Korea, which detailed the systematic imprisonment, enslavement, and torture of political prisoners in that country. While lauded abroad, Pyongyang labeled it a hostile act. In related news, on Tuesday North Korea’s highest court found two South Koreans guilty of spying, sentencing them to a life sentence of hard labor, considered a lenient sentence after the prosecution sought the death penalty. BONUS: Chinese authorities confiscate forty-year old smuggled meat. In a country where food scandals are almost passé, stomachs still turned when authorities in Changsha, a city in central China’s Hunan province, announced they’d seized more than 100,000 metric tons of frozen meat worth US$483 million from fourteen gangs. High demand has driven an underground market for meat in China (although not for “zombie chicken feet,” apparently). The meat took a circuitous route to get to Hunan, passing through Hong Kong and Vietnam before being snuck into China, which perhaps explains why it took forty years to get there. Also this week, in unrelated Chinese meat news, animal rights activists tried to shut down a traditional dog meat festival in Guangxi province.

Aliza Litchman is an intern in the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations.  The once strong U.S.-Pakistan relationship may be set to expire. Since the Afghan-Soviet war (1979-1989), Pakistan has served as a key U.S. ally in Central Asia—providing a base for military operations, participating in the counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and mediating relations between the United States and China. This bilateral relationship expanded in 2001 under President Bush, who increased humanitarian and military aid from $187.7 million in 2001 to $2 billion the year after 9/11—totally $20 billion in the subsequent decade. In 2009, Congress passed the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act that granted $1.5 billion in non-military aid to Pakistan over the next five years.  However, recent Pakistani political and military decisions reveal shifting allegiances, calling into question the strength of U.S.-Pakistan relations. Source: Susan B. Epstein and K. Alan Kronstadt, “Pakistan: U.S. Foreign Assistance,” Congressional Research Service, July 1, 2013. In recent months, Pakistan embarked on a number of initiatives that support U.S. regional interests. Much of these initiatives were spurred by the December 16, 2014, Peshawar school attack—the most violent terrorist attack in Pakistan’s history—in which Taliban militants killed 145 people, including 132 children. Subsequently, in December 2014, the Pakistani government created National Action Plan (NAP) to crack down on terrorism. In January 2015, Pakistan began a process of deepening military ties with Afghanistan to strengthen border security. Also in line with U.S. regional interests, Pakistan pursued friendlier relations with India by resuming dialogues amid tensions on the contested Jammu and Kashmir border. As a result of Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts, the State Department’s approved Pakistan’s request for nearly $1 billion in military equipment. However, granting another $1 billion to Pakistan may be premature, as Pakistan’s renewed crack down on terrorism is facing barriers to implementation. The country’s interior ministry released a progress report on the NAP that revealed poor progress and systemic miscommunication and disorganization. For instance, it revealed that 292,097 individuals were investigated during “combing operations” but only .05 percent were linked with terrorist organizations. Additionally, longstanding distrust between the civilian Intelligence Bureau and military-led Inter-Services Intelligence often results in ineffective communication and operation implementation. This is problematic because poor information sharing promotes faulty investigations and weak prosecution of suspected terrorists, who are frequently acquitted as a result. Additionally, the Pakistani initiatives supportive of U.S. interests are greatly overshadowed by strengthening Pakistan-China and Pakistan-Russia relations. Most recently, on April 16, Chinese president Xi Jinping announced plans to embark on a $46 billion infrastructure spending plan in Pakistan known as the China Pakistan Economic Corridor and, in early April, Pakistani president Nawaz Sharif approved an approximately $5 billion deal with China to purchase eight submarines with the potential to attach nuclear warheads. With a security interest in filling the vacuum left by the drawdown of U.S. troops from the region to stem the growing threat of terrorist attacks in West China, and following promises of unprecedented investment to Pakistan, Pakistan may default to a partner with which its interests more directly align—China. Russia, too, is growing closer to Pakistan. Most recently, it lifted its long-standing embargo on weapons sales to the country, agreed to the first-ever joint Pakistan-Russia military exercises, and sent the Russian defense minister to visit Pakistan for the first time in forty-five years. It’s not just the government that supports these growing regional alliances. Pakistan’s deepening regional ties have reached an unprecedented strength, according to a study by Pew Research Center. While only 16 percent of Pakistanis view America’s influence as “mostly positive,” 75 percent and 25 percent view China and Russia as such, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. priorities are losing traction. Despite U.S. pressure to maintain a peaceful relationship with India, Pakistan is increasing its military arsenal and engaging in acts of aggression against India. In March, Pakistan test fired a Shaheen III ballistic missile with a range up to 1,700 miles—which would allow Pakistan to hit any location in India—and, the following month, it test fired the Ghauri Ballistic Missile with a range of 807 miles; both are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. For almost fourteen years, the United States convinced itself that supporting U.S. doctrine is a core strategic interest of Pakistan. U.S. officials have regularly regarded counterterrorism as a key tenant of bilateral relations. In reference to the recent State Department agreement to the $1 billion arms deal, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said, “[we] will contribute to the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a country vital to U.S. foreign policy and national security goals in South Asia.” However, that does not mean that U.S. priorities are in line Pakistan’s. Pakistan’s recent actions reflect an increasingly different set of priorities. While Pakistan’s rivalry with India, quest for regional alliances, and pursuit of a strong military arsenal are not new, the country’s growing alignment of interests and unprecedented collaboration with potential U.S. rivals—China and Russia—threaten the stability of a bilateral relationship founded primarily on Pakistan’s reliance upon the United States. The United States should question whether it is clinging to an outdated perception of U.S.-Pakistani relations.

President Ashraf Ghani’s successful visit to Washington last month notwithstanding, the headlines out of Afghanistan since the end of international combat operations in December 2014 have mostly been grim. The Taliban have stepped up attacks since the start of 2015, and the self-declared Islamic State has spread to Afghanistan. During the March UN Security Council session held to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, UN Special Representative Nicholas Haysom told the Security Council that the Islamic State banner might serve to unite disparate radical groups. Unsurprisingly, Afghanistan’s neighbors fret about the regional spillover of a destabilized Afghanistan. New Delhi in particular, worries about a throwback to the 1990s, when regional terrorist networks used a chaotic, insecure Afghanistan as a base to plot attacks on India. The announcement of a new “South Asian subsidiary” of al-Qaeda, made by Ayman al-Zawahiri in late 2014, adds yet another wrinkle to this anxiety. This sobering backdrop partly explains why President Barack Obama recently announced, in response to the urgings of Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani, that the drawdown of U.S. troops would be delayed during 2015. But while slowing the pace of U.S. troop withdrawal may limit further deterioration of Afghan security this year, it does not address the current and future needs for increased support to Afghanistan and its security forces as they work to prevent the destabilization of their country. In a Council on Foreign Relations Policy Innovation Memorandum released today, I argue that Washington needs to work more closely with India to stabilize Afghanistan. India, now Afghanistan’s fifth largest bilateral donor in terms of pledged assistance, has long played an important economic role in the country. India’s involvement with Afghanistan spans development assistance, infrastructure support, commercial engagement, and training programs. Four years ago, India became the first country to sign a bilateral security agreement with Afghanistan. But, as I note, there are areas where Indian expertise could help Afghanistan further, especially in consolidating democracy and boosting civilian security. Of course, Pakistan will almost certainly object to additional Indian support to Afghanistan, as Islamabad has frequently done in the past. But an enhanced Indian role in Afghanistan’s stability—especially without “boots on the ground”—poses no real threat to Pakistani interests. Washington should make it clear to Islamabad that Indian support for Afghan stabilization should not be disrupted. For more details on how Washington should work with New Delhi to further Afghanistan’s stabilization, read my Policy Innovation Memorandum here. Top photo credit: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani meets Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the 18th SAARC summit. Photo by Narendra Modi licensed under CC-BY-SA 2.0. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, William Piekos, and Ariella Rotenberg look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. South Korea warns China against interfering amid missile defense debate. On Tuesday a South Korean Ministry of Defense spokesperson asked Beijing to not interfere in its defense policy, an unusual request with an increasingly close regional partner. Washington has been asking Seoul to deploy a ballistic missile defense system, Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), to South Korea. The United States believes the system would serve as a deterrent against the increasing North Korean missile threat, while Beijing sees it as a masked attempt to hedge in China. The debate over THAAD in South Korea has been growing the past year, especially as North Korea continues various missile tests. 2. Another tiger targeted in China’s anticorruption drive. In the latest turn in China’s anticorruption campaign, the vice chairman of PetroChina, Liao Yongyuan, has been placed under investigation by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) for "serious disciplinary violations." PetroChina’s parent company, China National Petroleum Corporation, has been a focal point of the CCDI for corruption, along with a string of other state-owned companies. Chinese President Xi Jinping has prioritized the eradication of corruption in recent years, viewing it as a threat to the party. A number of executives of PetroChina have been targeted for corruption recently, and the company is also the target of government-planned reforms. 3. Pakistan hangs twelve convicts after lifting moratorium on capital punishment. On Tuesday March 17, the Pakistani interior minister announced that the state had hanged twelve men in the largest group execution since the moratorium on capital punishment was lifted in December.  Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif lifted the moratorium on December 17—the day after Pakistani gunmen open fired on a school in Peshwar killing 134 children and 19 adults. While the moratorium was lifted as a direct result of the Peshwar terrorist attacks, it became clear last week that the government had widened the capital punishment policy to include all prisoners on death row whose appeals had not been accepted. Twenty-seven Pakistani prisoners have been put to death since the ban was lifted and more than eight thousand remain on death row. One inmate scheduled for execution, Shafquat Hussain, has garnered international attention as human rights lawyers claim he was fourteen when he was arrested and subsequently convicted after nine days of torture. 4. Japanese police arrest Okinawa resident linked to death threats to U.S. ambassador. On Friday, Japanese police arrested a 52-year-old man who allegedly used a public phone to threaten to blow up the embassy building in Tokyo. Reports of the treat made last month, made via telephone to the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo, were first released on Wednesday. The news broke as First Lady Michelle Obama arrived in Japan and while Ambassador to Japan Caroline Kennedy appeared with former president Bill Clinton and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at a Tokyo symposium. The State Department has also stated it has stepped up precautions to protect its personnel. 5. Earthquake, volcano, and cyclone hit South Pacific island. The small Vanuatu island of Ambrym experienced a 6.5 earthquake, a volcano erupted for the first time in one hundred years, and a category five cyclone made landfall within the past month. Tropical cyclone Pam, the last of the three natural disasters to strike, has left the island in a state of “apocalyptic” shock, damaging at least 90 percent of the island’s infrastructure and leaving thousands in need of shelter, food, and water. Likely one of the worst disasters ever seen in the Pacific, humanitarian aid organizations are facing the challenge of coordinating communication and travel between Vanuatu’s eighty-two separate islands. BONUS: Indian groom fails math problem; bride walks out. At a wedding in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, the bride tested her husband-to-be on his math skills. She asked him to add fifteen and six, to which he replied seventeen and she then called off the marriage. Reports say the groom’s family tried to convince the bride to return, but she refused, claiming that she had been misled about her beau’s educational background. Local police stepped in to mediate between the families for the return of all wedding gifts and jewelry.

The Taliban has outlasted the world’s most potent military forces, and its two main factions now challenge the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan. As U.S. troops draw down, the next phase of conflict has consequences that extend far beyond the region.