China

China’s unusual status as a top contributor of both funds and troops to the UN's peacekeeping program has stirred suspicion that Beijing uses the peacekeeping program to protect its economic assets abroad.

Although Kim Jong-un’s latest words on New Year’s Eve are a cause for concern, they seem to be aimed at gaining negotiating leverage rather than indicative of a real change in North Korea’s trajectory.

In the next decade, China will establish a separate root system for their share of the internet. This will mark the end of the global internet era. When the root splits, the United States and its allies should establish a coalition of democratic nations that would offer a stark choice and clear alternative to the Chinese internet governance model for the rest of the world.

The international politics of 2020 bear unnerving resemblance to the conditions that precipitated World War II.

The past year witnessed a lot of significant public health-related events in China. Many occurred in December. They include the unveiling of the Basic Healthcare and Health Promotion Law, the sentencing to three years in prison of a Chinese scientist who created gene-edited babies, the brutal murder of a doctor at a Beijing hospital by a patient's son, and a mystery viral pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan. But one of the most significant developments would be the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak. There is a reason why ASF, a deadly viral disease that is spread only among pigs, could wreak havoc across China. To many peoples, pigs are considered unclean animals for consumption. In China, however, pork is the most important meat, accounting for 60 percent of its meat consumption.  In 2018, China was home to half of the world’s hog population. Because China’s consumer price index (CPI) is heavily influenced by the pork price, CPI is sometimes jokingly called the “China pig index.” Being the world’s largest pig producer and consumer makes China highly vulnerable to ASF. By the end of August 2019, China had already seen its pig inventories reduced by nearly 40 percent from one year earlier. The animal disease was estimated to have led to a direct economic loss of one trillion yuan ($141 billion).  Dr. Qiu Huaji, a leading Chinese expert on porcine infectious diseases, contended that ASF was no less devastating than a war that could play a critical role to “knock down” China. But the impact is not confined to China. The disease is set to spread to more countries, including those in southeast Asia, and transform the global protein market. What puzzles animal disease experts was the speed of the spread of ASF in China.  Like China, Russia was also bedeviled by a flawed surveillance and reporting system, but it took a decade for ASF to spread from southern Caucasus region to eastern Siberia. By comparison, it took just over six months for the disease to be found throughout most of China. According to a Reuters report, “nowhere in the world has it spread faster and across such a wide area than in China.” In an op-ed article published in New York Times, I explained how a number of factors—government water-pollution control, the policy of hog production, local financing problems, and previous government regulations designed to ensure food safety—combined to set off probably the biggest animal disease outbreak in post-Mao China. If you are interested in learning more about this perfect storm, read it here.

European Union considers curbs on non-EU state-backed companies; India’s shutdown of internet in Kashmir is the longest ever in a democracy; U.S. technology sector rebuffs Trump administration’s efforts to shut out Chinese companies; European Union legal opinion complicates bloc’s data transfers; and NSO Group software used to target Pakistani officials’ phones.

The result of the 2020 election could shape Taiwan’s relationships with China and with the United States for years to come.

2019 saw the escalation of the technology cold war between Beijing and Washington. In 2020, restrictions on the flow of technology between the United States and China will continue as the two countries compete for influence in the rest of the world.

1. Continuing Political Regression In recent weeks, Southeast Asia’s authoritarian drift has continued, with several notable events. The Thai government moved to ban the opposition Future Forward Party, sparking major protests in Bangkok. The Cambodian government announced that opposition leader Kem Sokha will go on trial for treason in early 2020. And, of course, former Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi has appeared in The Hague to defend Myanmar against genocide charges. She returned home to a warm reception, suggesting that her defense enjoys wide popularity across Myanmar. Other than in Malaysia, there are few signs of hope for political progress in the region in 2020. 2. Elections: Part 1 As I noted in a previous blog post, there are two consequential elections in Southeast Asia in 2020. In Singapore, the result is essentially foretold, but the extent of the almost assured People’s Action Party (PAP) victory will be interesting to watch—as will how Singapore’s anti-fake news law comes into play. In Myanmar, the result is less certain, and there are real fears that in the run-up to national elections, the politicized environment could spark new rounds of violence. 3. Elections: Part 2 Although the U.S. presidential election does not take place in Southeast Asia, the results of the November 2020 contest will have a significant impact on the region. The Trump administration has tried to beef up links with important partners like Thailand and Vietnam, has developed a new strategy for the region, and has taken a tough stance on human rights challenges in some countries like Cambodia. But it also often has ignored the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as an organization, sending a relatively low level delegation to recent ASEAN meetings. The White House also has had little to say about issues of major importance to the region like climate change. A Democratic president’s Southeast Asia policy cannot be foretold with certainty, but a Democratic president likely would take a greater interest in climate change and try to reinvigorate links with ASEAN as an organization. However, given growing skepticism of many trade deals in segments of the Democratic Party as well, a Democratic president still would be unlikely to make the United States a major player in Asia’s regional trade integration. And while a Democratic president might take a slightly more hands-off approach to bilateral trade disputes with Southeast Asian nations, a United States that is more hawkish on trade overall is probably here to stay. 4. U.S.-China Relations Southeast Asian countries continue to struggle with how to adapt to a regional environment in which the United States and China have become increasingly confrontational, on issues ranging from trade to cybersecurity. Some Southeast Asian countries seem to have benefited from U.S.-China trade tensions—notably, Vietnam, but also possibly Malaysia and the Philippines. Still, many of the most trade-dependent Southeast Asian economies, like Singapore, are terrified of a return to U.S.-China trade tensions, and also are furious at the overall breakdown of global trade institutions, and the United States’ increasing hawkishness on trade. And, Southeast Asian countries increasingly accept that China is the dominant regional economic actor, and will become the dominant strategic actor, too. But China’s bullying in Southeast Asia has alienated segments of the population even in countries with relatively warm views of Beijing, like Malaysia and Thailand—and it has badly strained relations with Singapore and Vietnam. Countries are adapting, and will continue to adapt in 2020. Vietnam, for instance, continues to improve its military capabilities—and likely will continue to move slowly toward a closer partnership with the United States.

GitHub to open subsidiary in China; Chinese public institutions to replace foreign computer equipment; Senate Judiciary Committee holds hearing on encryption; NIAC calls cyber threats to critical infrastructure an “existential threat”; and Cyberattack strikes Iranian banks.