CFR Experts Answer Your Questions on Trump and Foreign Policy

On January 20, 2025, President-Elect Donald Trump will take the presidential oath of office for the second time. Trump’s first term saw a fundamental reshaping of U.S. foreign policy in line with his “America First” philosophy.

We asked our Instagram followers for their question about how a second Trump administration could affect U.S. foreign policy and received over one hundred responses. CFR experts answered across a wide range of issues, including China, Russia, the Middle East, and other key areas.

What is going to be the impact on multilateralism and international bodies?

It will be harmful. The first Donald Trump administration withdrew from global organizations, thereby making space for China to further spread its own influence within such institutions.
—Esther Brimmer, Senior Fellow in Global Governance

What should we expect regarding Indo-Pacific security partnerships, such as the Australia-United Kingdom-United States  (AUKUS) pact?

These are likely to continue. They are not binding security alliances. AUKUS is a technology partnership, and the Quad cooperates on health—and they receive bipartisan support!
—Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia

What does Trump’s election mean for the war in the Gaza Strip?

Not much. Trump wants the war over by Inauguration Day. That seems unlikely. Still, he wants the war over, but rather than encouraging a ceasefire it seems likely that the new president will give the Israelis political/diplomatic room and weapons to complete their military operations ASAP. 
—Steven A. Cook, Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies

Should NATO make moves to be self-reliant and not dependent on the United States?

European NATO members should do both: increase their own defense spending and military strength but try to keep the United States in the alliance as the most important member. This will create a NATO with two pillars: a European and a U.S. pillar and make NATO more stable for the future.
—Liana Fix, Fellow for Europe

How will this affect U.S.-Latin American relations?

Trump will be transactional towards Latin America (pressuring countries with tariffs and other tools to get what he wants) and agnostic towards democracy, just like before. He will pressure Mexico and Central American countries to harden or even close their borders to stop migrants, refugees, and fentanyl. He may have less interest in dislodging dictators in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua than last time. If he manages to deport millions of undocumented people, it will tank Central America’s smaller economies (by dramatically shrinking remittances) and contribute greatly to instability in that region. But he will bet that hard enough borders can contain any mess in the region. History shows otherwise.
—Will Freeman, Fellow for Latin American Studies

Can the rest of the world make meaningful climate progress without the United States?

Absolutely. The vast majority of emissions will come from China and emerging economies this century. U.S. states and companies will pursue emissions reductions, even if the federal government does less.
—David M. Hart, Senior Fellow for Climate and Energy and Varun Sivaram, Senior Fellow for Energy and Climate

What does Trump’s election mean for the war in Ukraine?

The Ukrainians had better prepare a gameplan for seeking a negotiated end to their fight against Russian aggression. That’s their best bet for winning Trump’s support and the continued flow of at least some U.S. aid.
—Charles A. Kupchan, Senior Fellow

What will Trump’s China policies look like?

President Trump ushered in a more competitive and confrontational U.S. approach toward China during his first term, levying more than $360 billion of tariffs on Chinese products. He has vowed to impose 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods during a second term, but has also expressed admiration for Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
—David Sacks, Fellow for Asia Studies

If Trump’s tariffs happen, how will China retaliate?

Trump will likely raise tariffs, not just against China, but our allies. The response will be the same as last time—they will retaliate with tariffs of their own. American farmers and ranchers are likely to be hardest hit from the trade war.
—Inu Manak, Fellow for Trade Policy

How is U.S. policy expected to shift in regard to Africa?

The U.S. attitude toward Africa has not been the same since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and we may rightly expect Washington to continue strengthening old alliances and exploring new ones with a view to keeping Russia and China in check.
—Ebenezer Obadare, Senior Fellow for Africa Studies

What is Trump’s stance on the defense of Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion?

Trump has declined to commit to defending Taiwan, saying instead that China will not invade when he is president “but eventually they will.” He has also stated “Taiwan should pay us for defense . . . we’re no different than an insurance company.”
—David Sacks, Fellow for Asia Studies

What happens to U.S.-Iran relations?

In terms of relations with Iran, the Trump administration is likely to increase economic pressure on Iran. The strategy of maximum pressure pursued by the administration last time was effective in terms of draining the Iranian treasury and thus limiting its ability to fund its proxies and sustain its patronage networks at home.
—Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies