Sudan

Internally-displaced people flee after heavy gunfire broke out in Damazin in the Blue Nile state September 7, 2011. (Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/Courtesy Reuters) The International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned of escalating civil war in Sudan as fighting between opposition and Khartoum forces continues to spread beyond the disputed territory of Abyei into the states of South Kordofan and now Blue Nile on the Ethiopian border. The first is territory disputed by South Sudan and Khartoum. The latter two remained in Sudan following the secession, but contain armed opposition groups formerly allied with Juba. South Sudan’s secession has played a role in the escalating conflict. As the ICG notes, parts of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) were never addressed, including the integration of the armed factions of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N), which formally split from the Juba-based SPLM on September 8. Perhaps more notably, the ICG argues that the South’s successful succession weakened Bashir’s control over the National Congress Party, allowing hardliners to execute a “soft-coup” within the NCP. They prefer the “military option” as opposed to Bashir’s negotiations. Analysts at the ICG suggest that fighting in Sudan’s center constitutes civil war and fear that the various opposition groups fighting Khartoum may be coalescing. This in turn could “trigger a wider civil war for control of the country.” Read the report here. H/T to Asch Harwood

http://youtu.be/zoWbR-3hR1M An anti-Tehran human rights advocacy group, Iran180.org, has produced a two-minute video on the Iranian regime’s bloody meddling in Africa. It focuses on Tehran’s deal with  Sudan’s al-Bashir and the devastating consequences for Darfur; with Zimbabwe’s Mugabe whereby Iran supplies oil in exchange for uranium; and its involvement in the arms trade. Iran180.org is supported by a wide range of human rights advocacy groups, ranging from the Anti-Defamation League to Iranian Diaspora groups. Though a bit over the top, I like the video because while we often focus on Chinese intervention in Africa, we pay less attention to Iran. For readers with an interest in Iran (as well as Africa!), let me call attention to the CFR’s official launch on Monday, October 3, of a new crisis guide on Iran. This interactive tool traces Iran’s evolution, its ambitions as a regional power, and its nuclear program. It also looks at the challenges Iran poses to its neighbors and the world, including Africa. Although the official release is next week, you can see it in its prerelease form by clicking on this link and entering the password, “cfr”.

Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir waves to the military during his first visit to Kadogli capital of South Kordofan State August 23, 2011, since fighting broke out between Sudan's army and armed groups in early June. (Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/Courtesy Reuters) Yesterday, the Satellite Sentential Project published evidence (pdf) of mass graves in South Kordofan, which should remind the international community that South Sudan’s independence has not stanched the bloodshed in the region. Some of the violence is caused  by unfinished business related  to South Sudan’s independence from Khartoum on July 9, such as contested territory along the still-undelineated frontier – about twenty percent of the total. In South Kordofan, for example, Khartoum is fighting the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N).  A UN report issued recently states that Khartoum’s army and associated paramilitary forces have committed extrajudicial killings and attacks against civilians in that region. SPLM-N also accuses Khartoum of blocking the flow of international aid to South Kordofan. Earlier this week, Khartoum president Omar al-Bashir announced that foreign aid organizations will be denied access to South Kordofan. But, murder and kidnapping in nearby South Sudan can also be related to ethnic conflicts—and the appeal of  rustling, where cattle is a measure of wealth and is the currency of bride price and dowry. For example, on August 18 in Uror County in Jonglei state, rustlers reportedly killed over six hundred people. A further 861 were wounded, 208 children were abducted, and thirty-eight thousand cattle were stolen. Almost eight thousand houses were burned. Rustling activity accompanying inter-ethnic conflict is exacerbated by the ready availability of arms. The end of the war between Khartoum and Juba may also mean that more young men are seeking marriage – requiring more cattle to meet the bride price. NGOs and others are calling on the Juba government to address the underlying issues. But, ethnic rivalries, readily available weapons, and the cultural role of cattle are complex issues for the new government to address.

The flag of South Sudan (C) flies after the United Nations General Assembly voted on South Sudan's membership to the United Nations at UN headquarters in New York July 14, 2011. (Shannon Stapleton/Courtesy Reuters) This is a guest post by Payton Knopf, a foreign service officer at the U.S. Department of State currently serving as an International Affairs Fellow in Residence at the Council on Foreign Relations. The views expressed herein do not represent those of the U.S. government or the U.S. Department of State. With euphoria from its newly won independence still hanging over South Sudan’s capital, Juba, relations with Khartoum are already being tested by the increasingly tense situation along their shared border. In South Kordofan, a northern state that borders the South, a stalled political process and subsequent northern military offensive against the forces of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) leader Abdulaziz Hilou has left tens of thousands--if not hundreds of thousands--displaced. To the east, rumors abound that northern troops will launch a related campaign in Southern Blue Nile, another northern state governed by SPLM leader Malik Agar, within days. And to the west, the conflict in Darfur still simmers. North Sudan President Omar Bashir’s boasts that a peace agreement signed Thursday in Doha with one Darfur rebel faction rings hollow, as that group lacks both political legitimacy and military relevance. The potential for an anti-Khartoum alliance among Hilou, Agar, and the only Darfur rebel movements with true military might—the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the newly reconstituted Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) of Minni Minawi and Abdulwahid al Nur--are high, which could lead to a war stretching across nearly the entire length of the days-old border between North and South Sudan. Such a development would significantly complicate the already shifting political landscape between North and South resulting from the latter’s secession. The northern leadership appears to be in disarray as it absorbs the loss of the South, with Bashir having disavowed a political framework for addressing the situation in South Kordofan that his hard-line advisor, Nafie Ali Nafie, had signed only days earlier. The northern military is furious at being thrust into the campaign with little preparation, which may account for credible reports of significant defections to Hilou’s forces (many of whom are from Hilou’s Nuba tribe) as well as his large territorial gains in recent days. South Sudan President Salva Kiir is also in a difficult position.  Having emphasized in his independence day address his country’s desire to live in peace with its northern neighbor, Hilou and Agar are key members of the SPLM, which led the struggle for southern statehood, and Kiir will find it difficult not to come to their aid. Worryingly, international access to South Kordofan has been reduced to nearly zero, leaving the scale of the humanitarian need unknown.  We can expect the same in the event of a military escalation in Southern Blue Nile.  In the wake of the tectonic political shift of July 9, trouble looms in the “new south” of North Sudan, and sustained international focus, particularly that of the United States, will be crucial to monitor and shape events in the coming days. For more information on Sudan’s state of affairs, see my recent CFR Expert Brief, "How to Secure Peace in South Sudan."

The process that led to South Sudan’s independence offers lessons for avoiding a new, devastating conflict in the region and underscores the importance of sustained and vigorous U.S. diplomacy, writes CFR’s Payton Knopf from the new country’s capital.

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (L) and Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir walk at Juba airport July 9, 2011. (STR New/Courtesy Reuters) I recently received a request for some reading recommendations on Sudan and South Sudan. The literature is massive, so I thought I would share some resources I’ve found personally helpful in illuminating and demystifying a highly complex African conflict. Here, I focus on north-south relations, oil, Darfur, Khartoum politics, and the conflicts in Abyei and South Kordofan. Sudan: Assessing Risks to Stability (PDF), (Center for Strategic and International Studies) Authors Richard Downie and Brian Kennedy provide a comprehensive analysis of “key stress points” challenging stability in Sudan and South Sudan within a historical context. South Sudan Country Profile (The Fund for Peace) This is a brief country assessment outlining basic statistics and various improvements and challenges to watch in bullet form. Darfur in the Shadows (Human Rights Watch) Human Rights Watch documents rising insecurity in Darfur, a region that has largely been forgotten by the western media in light of the euphoria around the South Sudan independence referendum and the conflicts in Abyei and South Kordofan. Divisions in Sudan’s Ruling Party and the Threat to the Country’s Stability (International Crisis Group) As the title implies, this ICG report provides an analysis of the often underreported divisions within the Sudan president Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party and how those may contribute to instability. The Politics of Resources, Resistance and Peripheries in Sudan (South African Institute of International Affairs) Author Petrus de Kock goes deeper into Sudan and South Sudan’s many localized conflicts, rooted at least partially in competition not only for oil but subsistence resources, that often escape the attention of western media. Negotiating Peace in Sudan (the Cairo Review of Global Affairs) United States Special Envoy to Sudan Princeton Lyman writes about the difficult process that led to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the unresolved challenges. A few organizations and websites with extensive resources: Enough: The Project to End Genocide and Crimes Against Humanity Satellite Sentinel Project Relief Web Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment Finally, I did a few brief video interviews available online: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow96-qXZ-iM& http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OU1Nmmgm0sA

Women hold crosses as they march during a rehearsal of the Independence Day ceremony in Juba July 7, 2011. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters) On Saturday, south Sudan will celebrate its independence. Given the occasion, I have two pieces on the topic. In a CFR expert brief, I make the point that south Sudan’s succession is the first significant change in any African country’s national boundaries inherited from colonialism. (The only other case is Eritrea, which won its independence from Ethiopia in 1991. But Eritrea had been separate from Ethiopia when both were incorporated into Mussolini’s east African empire, while south Sudan was part of the colonial Anglo-Egyptian Sudan.) The Organization of African Unity and its successor, the African Union, have opposed changing colonial boundaries of African states. I do not think that south Sudan will lead to a wholesale call for a re-evaluation of Africa’s national boundaries, in part because governing elites do not want to open what could be a pandora’s box. But, south Sudan may encourage a conversation about Africa’s often illogical national boundaries, and may encourage the separatist Republic of Somaliland to seek international recognition. On the Royal African Society’s  blog, I make the point that despite the historic nature of south Sudan’s independence, it really opens a new chapter in a conflict that is likely to continue into the future, particularly given the violence in Abyei and South Kordofan.

South Sudan’s independence July 9 could encourage secession efforts elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa, but elites in those countries will likely stymie those attempts at challenging colonial borders, at least for now.

Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) soldiers hold Ak-47 rifles during a rehearsal of the Independence Day ceremony in Juba July 5, 2011. (Goran Tomasevic/Courtesy Reuters) The United Nations’ report last Friday of deaths and displaced persons reveals the extent of the violence in south Sudan since the referendum in January. Over one thousand eight hundred people have been killed and around two hundred and sixty thousand displaced, with hostilities ongoing. Notably, these numbers include conflict not just in the flashpoints of Abyei and South Kordofan, but incidents in nine of south’s ten states where international press coverage is rare. On Saturday, southern Sudan will celebrate its newly won independence from the north. However, in the midst of ongoing hostilities, lingering questions remain unanswered, such as the region’s new ill defined border and any oil revenue sharing plan. This tense environment will make reaching any agreement extremely difficult. While the United Nations Security Council has agreed to deploy over four thousand new Ethiopian peacekeepers to Abyei, this mandate is presently limited to six months. It will be called the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA). In the meantime, the current UN Mission to Sudan’s (UNMIS) mandate expires Saturday with the independence of south Sudan. The north has expressed its desire for those roughly ten thousand UN peacekeepers to leave on July 9. Hence, while Khartoum has agreed to continued negotiations, its stance on UNMIS is yet another example of its obstructionist tactics, which have been characteristic of its response to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) since 2005.

Residents gather outside UNMIS sector headquarters in Kadugli town. (Ho New/Courtesy Reuters) Yesterday, leaders from northern and southern Sudan signed an agreement (pdf) that demilitarizes Abyei, the disputed region that Sudanese Armed Forces invaded on May 20, and deploys a new Ethiopian peacekeeping force to the area, the Interim Security Force for Abyei (ISFA). Secretary of State Clinton thanked South African mediator Thabo Mbeki and claimed the diplomatic agreement represented “an important first step.” But, it was only one step in one of Sudan’s conflicts and does not address the "ethnic cleansing" that has reportedly taken place under the auspices of the Khartoum security services. In recent days, the strife in South Kordofan state (which is in the North) has produced unsettling reports from journalists on the ground, Sudan experts abroad, and new satellite imagery from the Sudan Sentinel Project (SSP). Approximately sixty thousand people have fled the conflict in the Nuba mountains, some retreating to caves to avoid the aerial bombardment from Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). In a report released on June 17, SSP indicates eighty-nine SAF military vehicles in Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan. As the northern army sweeps into the region, other reports suggest ethnically-targeted violence toward Nubans, a population of “black Africans” in the ethnically heterogeneous state that includes large “Arab” populations. Humanitarian organizations have limited access to the region. Last week, I posed the unfortunate question: is Sudan on the verge of another conflict tantamount to Darfur? Sudan experts and the recent media reports have affirmed that possible scenario. This week, perhaps it is better to ask a more historical question: will the Nuba face yet another conflict, and how will that effect southern independence on July 9? The situation in South Kordofan, though spurred by the northern military’s “control” of the region on June 5, is hardly new. In fact, some of the Nuba--a largely agricultural community that practices Islam, Christianity, and other religions--fought against northern Sudan during the civil war and have faced issues of political recognition ever since. During the 1990s, Khartoum reallocated land to the pastoralist groups in the region and meted out colonial-era divide and rule (pdf) land reallocation schemes to pit the “Arab” and “black” groups against one another. There were likely economic implications to the land deals, as Nuba tend to be sedentary farmers and the Baggara cattle herders. The situation in South Kordofan has parallels—the complex combination of identity politics, land grievances, economic concerns, and geographic boundaries—that beset many other regional conflicts on the continent. But, there is an unsettling difference that makes this conflict unique: southern Sudan will secede from the North in less than twenty days.

Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir (R) speaks with African leaders during the Africa Panel high-level talks in Addis Ababa June 12, 2011. (Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/Courtesy Reuters) Leaders from northern and southern Sudan reached an initial agreement yesterday to remove troops from Abyei and allow Ethiopian peacekeepers into the region. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton participated in some of the African Union (AU) negotiations in Addis Ababa, but it’s too early to tell if diplomatic efforts will resolve the situation in Abyei before July 9. The two sides have yet to work out the mechanics of the deal, including who will pay for the Ethiopian peacekeepers. But, the recent reports of bombings in South Kordofan state and elsewhere have overshadowed diplomatic progress. Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) soldiers have been fighting since June 5, and the conflict has escalated quickly. Reports depict aerial bombing campaigns from northern SAF planes, with many of the attacks targeting Tolodi, Kadugli, and Dilling. The humanitarian situation is becoming increasingly grim: as many as forty thousand people have already fled Kadugli, the capital of South Kordofan state, adding to the over one hundred thousand people displaced thus far. Humanitarian organizations, which have complained about disrupted supply chains for weeks, cannot reach many of those in need. Journalists have faced harassment and physical abuse, according to Human Rights Watch. The recent developments raise the unsettling question: will Sudan suffer another internal conflict similar perhaps to Darfur? An earlier UN document suggested Khartoum may be pursuing "ethnic cleansing" in Abyei, and new reports claim the northern Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are now targeting Nuba civilians, possibly in coordinated attacks. The UN describes “house to house searches in the west of Kadugli”—which could have an ethnic basis.

A patrol from the international peacekeeping operation passes a destroyed UN truck that was part of a convoy transporting northern soldiers out of the Abyei area in the Todach area, north of Abyei town, in this handout picture released by the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) May 30, 2011. (Ho New/Courtesy Reuters) The situation in Abyei has developed into a tense standoff. The North’s ultimatum that southern forces withdraw from disputed regions by June 1 has passed, and thousands of Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) soldiers remain above border between northern and southern Sudan. Predictably, Khartoum’s  May 21 seizure of Abyei has also created a dire humanitarian situation. Preliminary figures indicate that at least 116 civilians have died during the conflict, and that number is likely to grow. More than forty-five thousand Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) have registered with the UN, with some reports indicating an additional thirty-five thousand people have yet to reach Warrap State. Poor weather due to seasonal rains has also slowed aid to the region. Earlier this week, I analyzed Abyei’s seizure in an CFR Expert Brief, “Why Sudan’s Peace Is in Jeopardy.” The report, which includes a CFR video on the situation in Sudan, is available here.

Hostilities in Sudan might be relieved by a deal hammered out by former South African president Thabo Mbeki, but ethnic and religious divides, resource battles, and looming southern independence remain contentious issues, says CFR’s John Campbell.

[cetsEmbedGmap src=http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?client=firefox-a&hl=en&ie=UTF8&msa=0&msid=215110937314986215762.0004a4458a3a5bba8fc5b&ll=18.979026,11.953125&spn=149.65005,316.054688&z=2 width=570 height=425 marginwidth=0 marginheight=0 frameborder=0 scrolling=no] Click on the map’s placemarks for more details. Zoom in and out for a better look. I have been paying particular attention this past week to the following: The G8 Meeting The G8 meeting continued today in France, and new reports indicate at least $20 billion in new assistance for Egypt and Tunisia. Below the Sahara, however, the aid picture is somewhat different. I mentioned yesterday that the G8 meeting may potentially emphasize specific issues in sub-Saharan Africa—the guest list of recently elected African leaders points to democracy and governance—but there may be another reason for this new focus. Earlier this week, the New York Times editorialized that the G8 has failed to meet its famous aid pledge at the 2005 Gleneagles summit in Scotland, where leaders agreed to increase direct assistance to African countries by $25 billion by 2010. The joint declaration by G8 and Africa leaders is here. Sudan The crisis in Sudan’s disputed Abyei region continues to escalate. The UN estimates that thirty to forty thousand people have been displaced due to the North’s occupation of the area this week, and one local commissioner believes the figure may be as high as eighty thousand people. New imagery from the Satellite Sentinel Project suggests that the security situation could worsen even further, as more more Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) troops and artillery appear to be within close distance to Abyei town. Nevertheless, the President of Southern Sudan, Salva Kiir, stated yesterday in Juba that the South “will not go back to war.” For an interactive timeline of the recent events in Abyei, click here. I also received a very helpful blog comment from Hank Cohen on Sudan’s financial situation. The current estimates for Sudan’s debt are in fact extremely high: an April 2011 IMF report projects that the country’s external debt will reach $40.1 billion in 2011. However, the current estimates may be closer to $36.8 billion, up from approximately $35.7 billion in 2009. In either case, Sudan’s external debt is formidable, and it presents a major political and financial issue to deal with ahead of the South’s scheduled independence on July 9. South Africa The municipal elections in South Africa demonstrated the apparent rise of the Democratic Alliance (DA) as a potential viable opposition party to the Africa National Congress (ANC). Although the ANC gathered the majority of votes, the DA was able to reach out to black voters—a significant development. As the ANC’s leadership heads to the National Executive Committee (NEC) meetings in Midrand this weekend, they will reassess what happened during the local elections and try to decide the party’s next steps.