South Sudan

Sudan and South Sudan appear to be on the brink of war. The United States and China must press both sides to return to the negotiating table, says CFR expert Jendayi Frazer.

A Sudanese farmer prepares his land for agriculture on the banks of River Nile in the capital Khartoum November 11, 2009. (Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/Courtesy Reuters)   This is a guest post by Asch Harwood, Council on Foreign Relations Africa research associate. Follow him on Twitter at @aschlfod. Development agencies, multinationals, NGOs, private investors, and politicians regularly tout the potential of large scale agricultural investment for development and  food security--a point emphasized by the World Bank’s 2008 World Development Report, “Agriculture for Development.” On the surface, this seems to make sense, particularly for Africa. Agriculture is already a central part of most developing economies. It accounts for around 34 percent of GDP and 64 percent of employment in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the World Bank. Further, agriculture has significant room for growth given the low rates of productivity and automation. However, multinational investments in agriculture in the world’s newest state of South Sudan are raising questions about the need to balance the interests of investors with the interests of communities where those investments are taking place. A  report last month by the Financial Times suggests that investments, not structured properly, could have the opposite effect envisioned by the World Bank, USAID, and other donors pushing agricultural investment. This FT article focuses on the example of Egyptian private equity firm Citadel Capital, which has leased 259,000 acres, and has made a twenty-four million dollar investment but so far has only employed sixty people, most of whom are Zimbabwean. The Oakland Institute and Norwegian People’s Aid both have published reports outlining a number of other deals. And both raise serious concerns. As the author of the NPA report notes, “While in theory, this influx of investment could provide development opportunities for rural communities, without the appropriate procedures in place there is a danger that it will serve to undermine livelihoods.” The next blog post will appear on January 3. Happy Holidays!

Internally-displaced people flee after heavy gunfire broke out in Damazin in the Blue Nile state September 7, 2011. (Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/Courtesy Reuters) The International Crisis Group (ICG) has warned of escalating civil war in Sudan as fighting between opposition and Khartoum forces continues to spread beyond the disputed territory of Abyei into the states of South Kordofan and now Blue Nile on the Ethiopian border. The first is territory disputed by South Sudan and Khartoum. The latter two remained in Sudan following the secession, but contain armed opposition groups formerly allied with Juba. South Sudan’s secession has played a role in the escalating conflict. As the ICG notes, parts of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) were never addressed, including the integration of the armed factions of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement North (SPLM-N), which formally split from the Juba-based SPLM on September 8. Perhaps more notably, the ICG argues that the South’s successful succession weakened Bashir’s control over the National Congress Party, allowing hardliners to execute a “soft-coup” within the NCP. They prefer the “military option” as opposed to Bashir’s negotiations. Analysts at the ICG suggest that fighting in Sudan’s center constitutes civil war and fear that the various opposition groups fighting Khartoum may be coalescing. This in turn could “trigger a wider civil war for control of the country.” Read the report here. H/T to Asch Harwood

Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir waves to the military during his first visit to Kadogli capital of South Kordofan State August 23, 2011, since fighting broke out between Sudan's army and armed groups in early June. (Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/Courtesy Reuters) Yesterday, the Satellite Sentential Project published evidence (pdf) of mass graves in South Kordofan, which should remind the international community that South Sudan’s independence has not stanched the bloodshed in the region. Some of the violence is caused  by unfinished business related  to South Sudan’s independence from Khartoum on July 9, such as contested territory along the still-undelineated frontier – about twenty percent of the total. In South Kordofan, for example, Khartoum is fighting the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N).  A UN report issued recently states that Khartoum’s army and associated paramilitary forces have committed extrajudicial killings and attacks against civilians in that region. SPLM-N also accuses Khartoum of blocking the flow of international aid to South Kordofan. Earlier this week, Khartoum president Omar al-Bashir announced that foreign aid organizations will be denied access to South Kordofan. But, murder and kidnapping in nearby South Sudan can also be related to ethnic conflicts—and the appeal of  rustling, where cattle is a measure of wealth and is the currency of bride price and dowry. For example, on August 18 in Uror County in Jonglei state, rustlers reportedly killed over six hundred people. A further 861 were wounded, 208 children were abducted, and thirty-eight thousand cattle were stolen. Almost eight thousand houses were burned. Rustling activity accompanying inter-ethnic conflict is exacerbated by the ready availability of arms. The end of the war between Khartoum and Juba may also mean that more young men are seeking marriage – requiring more cattle to meet the bride price. NGOs and others are calling on the Juba government to address the underlying issues. But, ethnic rivalries, readily available weapons, and the cultural role of cattle are complex issues for the new government to address.

The flag of South Sudan (C) flies after the United Nations General Assembly voted on South Sudan's membership to the United Nations at UN headquarters in New York July 14, 2011. (Shannon Stapleton/Courtesy Reuters) This is a guest post by Payton Knopf, a foreign service officer at the U.S. Department of State currently serving as an International Affairs Fellow in Residence at the Council on Foreign Relations. The views expressed herein do not represent those of the U.S. government or the U.S. Department of State. With euphoria from its newly won independence still hanging over South Sudan’s capital, Juba, relations with Khartoum are already being tested by the increasingly tense situation along their shared border. In South Kordofan, a northern state that borders the South, a stalled political process and subsequent northern military offensive against the forces of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) leader Abdulaziz Hilou has left tens of thousands--if not hundreds of thousands--displaced. To the east, rumors abound that northern troops will launch a related campaign in Southern Blue Nile, another northern state governed by SPLM leader Malik Agar, within days. And to the west, the conflict in Darfur still simmers. North Sudan President Omar Bashir’s boasts that a peace agreement signed Thursday in Doha with one Darfur rebel faction rings hollow, as that group lacks both political legitimacy and military relevance. The potential for an anti-Khartoum alliance among Hilou, Agar, and the only Darfur rebel movements with true military might—the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the newly reconstituted Sudan Liberation Movement (SLM) of Minni Minawi and Abdulwahid al Nur--are high, which could lead to a war stretching across nearly the entire length of the days-old border between North and South Sudan. Such a development would significantly complicate the already shifting political landscape between North and South resulting from the latter’s secession. The northern leadership appears to be in disarray as it absorbs the loss of the South, with Bashir having disavowed a political framework for addressing the situation in South Kordofan that his hard-line advisor, Nafie Ali Nafie, had signed only days earlier. The northern military is furious at being thrust into the campaign with little preparation, which may account for credible reports of significant defections to Hilou’s forces (many of whom are from Hilou’s Nuba tribe) as well as his large territorial gains in recent days. South Sudan President Salva Kiir is also in a difficult position.  Having emphasized in his independence day address his country’s desire to live in peace with its northern neighbor, Hilou and Agar are key members of the SPLM, which led the struggle for southern statehood, and Kiir will find it difficult not to come to their aid. Worryingly, international access to South Kordofan has been reduced to nearly zero, leaving the scale of the humanitarian need unknown.  We can expect the same in the event of a military escalation in Southern Blue Nile.  In the wake of the tectonic political shift of July 9, trouble looms in the “new south” of North Sudan, and sustained international focus, particularly that of the United States, will be crucial to monitor and shape events in the coming days. For more information on Sudan’s state of affairs, see my recent CFR Expert Brief, "How to Secure Peace in South Sudan."

The process that led to South Sudan’s independence offers lessons for avoiding a new, devastating conflict in the region and underscores the importance of sustained and vigorous U.S. diplomacy, writes CFR’s Payton Knopf from the new country’s capital.

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (L) and Sudan's President Omar Hassan al-Bashir walk at Juba airport July 9, 2011. (STR New/Courtesy Reuters) I recently received a request for some reading recommendations on Sudan and South Sudan. The literature is massive, so I thought I would share some resources I’ve found personally helpful in illuminating and demystifying a highly complex African conflict. Here, I focus on north-south relations, oil, Darfur, Khartoum politics, and the conflicts in Abyei and South Kordofan. Sudan: Assessing Risks to Stability (PDF), (Center for Strategic and International Studies) Authors Richard Downie and Brian Kennedy provide a comprehensive analysis of “key stress points” challenging stability in Sudan and South Sudan within a historical context. South Sudan Country Profile (The Fund for Peace) This is a brief country assessment outlining basic statistics and various improvements and challenges to watch in bullet form. Darfur in the Shadows (Human Rights Watch) Human Rights Watch documents rising insecurity in Darfur, a region that has largely been forgotten by the western media in light of the euphoria around the South Sudan independence referendum and the conflicts in Abyei and South Kordofan. Divisions in Sudan’s Ruling Party and the Threat to the Country’s Stability (International Crisis Group) As the title implies, this ICG report provides an analysis of the often underreported divisions within the Sudan president Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party and how those may contribute to instability. The Politics of Resources, Resistance and Peripheries in Sudan (South African Institute of International Affairs) Author Petrus de Kock goes deeper into Sudan and South Sudan’s many localized conflicts, rooted at least partially in competition not only for oil but subsistence resources, that often escape the attention of western media. Negotiating Peace in Sudan (the Cairo Review of Global Affairs) United States Special Envoy to Sudan Princeton Lyman writes about the difficult process that led to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the unresolved challenges. A few organizations and websites with extensive resources: Enough: The Project to End Genocide and Crimes Against Humanity Satellite Sentinel Project Relief Web Sudan Human Security Baseline Assessment Finally, I did a few brief video interviews available online: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow96-qXZ-iM& http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OU1Nmmgm0sA