While the Nairobi agreement offers hope for a resolution to Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict, uncertainties remain, and the damage done will reshape U.S.-Ethiopia relations.

When U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken traveled to Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal last week, he made a point of emphasizing U.S. concern about Ethiopia’s conflict. Blinken stressed that “it is imperative that the fighting stops” and that the United States fully supports former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, the High Representative for the Horn of Africa for the African Union (AU), in his diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire that leads to political negotiations. Monday’s statement from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed promising to personally “mobilize to the front to lead the defense forces” suggests those efforts are far from succeeding.

When the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) began generating electricity a few days ago, it marked a triumphant moment for a troubled country. Paired with the images of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s engagements at the recent AU and European Union-Africa Summits, in which he advocated for a stronger African voice in international decision-making, and the news that the Ethiopian parliament voted to lift the state of emergency that had been imposed late last year, the latest developments can seem like a return to form for Ethiopia and its relations with the rest of the world.

Anyone fishing for a good news story out of Africa recently has, rightly, celebrated Ethiopia, where dynamic young Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has dramatically opened political space, departing from decades or repressive, tightly controlled government. But Ethiopia faces real and urgent challenges, and it is critical that well-wishers not ignore them. Abiy has lifted the lid off of a pressure cooker—one his predecessors held in place with sometimes brutal force—and in some cases the result has not been euphoria, but rather messy, complex eruptions of communal violence.

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