No Limits? The China-Russia Relationship and U.S. Foreign Policy

Council Special Report from China Strategy Initiative, U.S. Foreign Policy Program, and Asia Program

No Limits? The China-Russia Relationship and U.S. Foreign Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, on February 4, 2022. (Sputnik/Aleksey Druzhinin/Kremlin via Reuters)

China and Russia’s quasi-alliance endangers U.S. national interests. Its management will prove a generational task for American policymakers—but there are grounds for optimism, argue CFR Senior Fellow Robert Blackwill and Center for a New American Security CEO Richard Fontaine.

Council Special Report by Robert D. Blackwill and Richard Fontaine

December 2024

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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, on February 4, 2022. (Sputnik/Aleksey Druzhinin/Kremlin via Reuters)

Council Special Report: Concise policy briefs that provide timely responses to developing crises or contributions to current policy dilemmas.

Introduction

The growing quasi-alliance between China and Russia poses the greatest threat to vital U.S. national interests in sixty years. As this Council Special Report demonstrates, their joint efforts to undermine U.S. policies and international order have made marked progress in the past decade and will continue for the foreseeable future. Although the United States and its partners have not yet mounted an adequate response to this historic challenge, there are grounds for optimism about the West’s capacity to deal with strengthening China-Russia alignment. Thus, this report concludes with fourteen policy prescriptions that highlight the United States’ top priorities in managing Chinese and Russian influence.

Robert D. Blackwill

Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S. Foreign Policy

Richard Fontaine

CEO, Center for a New American Security

Nearly thirty years ago, former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski issued a prophetic warning. “Potentially, the most dangerous scenario,” he said, “would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an ‘anti-hegemonic’ coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances. It would be reminiscent in scale and scope of the challenge once posed by the Sino-Soviet bloc, though this time China would likely be the leader and Russia the follower.”^[1]

China’s View of the China-Russia Relationship

Chinese leaders sense in Russia a transactional strategic opportunity, not an emotional connection.^[16] China does not trust Russia at any deep level but views Russian objectives as largely parallel to its own.^[17] Beijing looks to Moscow to endorse China’s sovereignty claims, strengthen the Chinese economy, resist American dominance of existing rules and institutions, and side with (though not to fight alongside) China in any conflict over Taiwan. As one of China’s premier Russia experts, Zhao Huasheng, stresses, China seeks a “relatively stable strategic rear . . . invisible and seemingly unremarkable in times of peace, but its strategic relevance to China will be revealed were our country to be faced with a major upheaval.”^[18]

Since taking office in 2012, Xi has decisively shaped China-Russia relations. His first overseas trip as leader was to Russia, he refers to Putin as his “best friend and colleague,” and he has met one-on-one with the Russian leader more than forty times, far more than any other world leader. In the weeks before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the two declared a “no limits” partnership between their countries.^[19]

From China’s perspective, it reaps substantial practical benefits from close ties with Russia. Moscow advances Beijing’s global diplomacy at the United Nations and in regional organizations.^[20] Its provision of advanced military equipment and training as well as joint exercises fortifies China’s defense capabilities.^[21] It supplies vital energy to China’s domestic economy, and at discount prices.^[22] It represents a relatively modest but increasingly important destination for Chinese exports.^[23] It is a gateway for China to the Arctic and the critical Northern Sea Route, unlocking new avenues for the PRC’s trade and influence.^[24] Most important, Russia works with China to oppose what both Putin and Xi view as American refusal to accept the legitimacy of their political systems.

As noted above, Chinese leaders retain reservations about Russia. In addition to policy differences and regional competition, China worries that the Kremlin’s confrontational risk-taking will provoke Europe into a sustained anti-China posture. It remains concerned that Russia’s ostentatious aggression will lead the West, and especially the United States, to strengthen its resolve and defenses to meet the authoritarian challenge, with negative implications for the geopolitical balance in the Indo-Pacific.

Finally, there is the ultimate strategic nightmare for China regarding Russia: Putin or his successors are overthrown by a popular revolution like that in Ukraine, and Russia joins the West in a united effort to undermine Chinese Communist Party rule. That worry on its own is sufficient to continue China’s support for Russia, including in the Ukraine war, which Putin routinely frames as not against Ukraine but rather the entire West.

Russia’s View of the China-Russia Relationship

Russian leaders view China as an economic lifeline, a military supplier, and an autocratic partner similarly discontented with the existing international system. Putin has invested heavily in his personal relationship with Xi, spending hundreds of hours in conversation across more than sixty personal meetings, and the two are linked by a determination to alter the U.S.-led order, which, they believe, serves as little more than a smoke screen for American domination at their expense.^[25] Russia wants Chinese technology and components, markets and financial arrangements, diplomatic cover and political support.

As the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center’s Alexander Gabuev summarizes, Russia values China’s assistance on the battlefield in Ukraine, support for sustaining the Russian economy and circumventing sanctions, and help in pushing back against the West and punishing the United States for supporting Ukraine.^[26]

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that enhancing ties with China represents Russia’s top foreign policy priority, and with such tangible results it is not difficult to see why.^[27] Even as the United States struggles to pivot to Asia, Russia buttresses its relationship with China. Russian aspirations, however, go beyond immediate benefits, and include Chinese help in making fundamental revisions to existing international arrangements. Putin in May 2024 described bilateral ties to China as a “stabilizing” force in the world, one that acts in defense of a “democratic world order that reflects multipolar realities.”^[28]

That includes a healthy respect for great-power spheres of influence. Putin has expressed support not only for China’s actions to “protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” but also to “reunify the country,” a barely veiled reference to Chinese ambitions in Taiwan.^[29] The two coordinate a grand narrative, aimed especially but not only at the Global South, that condemns overweening American power as riddled by hypocrisy and accustomed to domination, notwithstanding soaring U.S. rhetoric about liberal order and universal values or the reality of American decline.

Moscow ultimately sees Beijing as assisting its drive for regime security. In their 2022 joint manifesto, Putin and Xi pledged to “stand against attempts by external forces to undermine security and stability in their common adjacent regions,” and to “oppose color revolutions.”^[30] Russian leaders understand that Chinese assistance does not come free, and appear ready to supply air defense systems, submarine technology, and other military support in return, and to support Chinese diplomatic and economic initiatives.^[31] Even if Russian trust in China remains limited, Moscow fears neither Chinese efforts to undermine its domestic stability nor Chinese military aggression—the latter illustrated by Russia’s moving its forces to Ukraine from border areas, leaving its frontier with China effectively undefended for some two years.^[32]

Where possible tensions could emerge between China and Russia—over influence in Central Asia, activities in the Arctic, or relations with North Korea—Russia has sought to smooth differences and harmonize approaches. For all the betting that the Kremlin would never accept a junior partner status in its relationship with the Chinese superpower, Russia has done just that. China is essential to Russia, and Putin knows it.

China-Russia Collaboration to Undermine the West

The public record demonstrates that China and Russia are embarked on a comprehensive global effort to weaken American diplomatic, military, and economic power and influence. The data in this section, however, is only a shadow of all that they do daily in this regard. Because these two nations can keep secrets, there exists no public record of most bilateral meetings and only scant knowledge of any joint activities and mutual support discussed, planned, and carried out.

In short, what follows is a faint rendering of the full scope of what these two adversaries jointly undertake to undermine the foreign policies and vital national interests of the United States. Nevertheless, that record should constitute both a concern and a challenge to U.S. policymakers.

Diplomatic Collaboration

In recent decades, Beijing and Moscow have launched a joint diplomatic offensive. Only once before 2006 did they jointly veto a proposed resolution at the UN Security Council.^[33] As their national interests and policy objectives have increasingly aligned, however, the two states have vetoed sixteen resolutions together since 2007, all to thwart U.S. foreign policy objectives.^[34] They rejected an American-led proposal in 2007 that called on Myanmar’s government to release political prisoners and end human rights violations against ethnic minorities.^[35] The following year, China and Russia voted down a text that condemned Zimbabwe’s arbitrary political arrests and supported fair and free elections in the country.^[36] In its explanation of its veto, Moscow stated its firm intent to continue to “counter” a perceived expansion of Security Council power in all future decisions.^[37]

After the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in March 2011, China and Russia continued to oppose American policies at the Security Council. On four separate votes from 2011 to 2014, collectively intended to hold Syria accountable for attacks on civilian population centers and enjoin an immediate end to Syrian human rights violations, Beijing and Moscow responded with joint vetoes.^[38] The two again acted in concert and killed a 2016 proposal calling for an immediate cease-fire in Aleppo.^[39] They then prevented the passage of a resolution put forward by the United States in 2017 that held top Syrian officials accountable for using chemical weapons against Syrian citizens.^[40]

In 2019, China and Russia thwarted a U.S. resolution that called for free and fair presidential elections in Venezuela, as well as two more texts that demanded a cease-fire and improved humanitarian assistance in Syria.^[41] The pair were the only two votes against a U.S. resolution at the Security Council the next year to indefinitely extend the arms embargo on Iran.^[42] Two Security Council motions in 2020 that urged Syria to comply with international human rights laws and supported a mechanism to supply humanitarian aid were also met with back-to-back joint vetoes.^[43] When North Korea in 2022 launched an intercontinental ballistic missile in violation of international law, the two quashed a UN proposal to strengthen sanctions against the country.^[44] A U.S. attempt in 2023 to condemn Hamas’s attack on Israel and call for the protection of Israeli and Palestinian citizens was vetoed by China and Russia, as was an American-led proposal the next year that urged a humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza.^[45]

Of the twenty-three cases where the Russian Federation has exercised its veto power alone, China has abstained twenty times.^[46] Indeed, Beijing has not opposed a Security Council resolution without Moscow since 1999.^[47] Every Security Council member voted in favor of a 2014 resolution to condemn Russia’s annexation of Crimea except Russia, which vetoed the resolution, and China, which abstained.^[48] Moscow was also the sole veto against four separate draft resolutions in 2017 to intensify investigations of Syria for chemical weapon use against its population.^[49] Beijing abstained in each case.^[50] It abstained once again when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, while Russia vetoed a condemnation of its own actions.^[51]

The Russian veto reappeared in March 2024 on an American resolution to extend UN surveillance of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and assess the need for further sanctions (once again, all other Security Council members voted in favor other than China, which abstained).^[52] In April 2024, Russia denied a resolution cosponsored by the United States to prevent the placement of nuclear weapons in outer space, while China abstained.^[53] Beijing then sided with Moscow in October 2024 during a Security Council debate over accountability for the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosion. China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations echoed the Russian chorus alleging a cover-up of the United States and Britain’s role in the explosion.^[54] Not since the founding of the Russian Federation has one nation vetoed a Security Council resolution proposed by the other.^[55] Thus, Beijing and Moscow are much more than close partners in the Security Council; they march in lockstep.

In the UN General Assembly (UNGA), China and Russia are similarly strong diplomatic comrades. From 1991 to 2020, they together opposed Washington on over 1,500 resolutions, supported by a strong coalition that they jointly helped organize. In 86 percent of these cases, the Sino-Russian position prevailed.^[56] Although these resolutions are nonbinding, they demonstrate both the weak standing of many U.S. policy preferences among the nations of the world and successful lobbying efforts by Beijing and Moscow.^[57] The two have voted together against each of the twenty-two resolutions that expressed deep concern for human rights violations in Iran proffered from 2000 to 2023.^[58] In 2021, the United States was defeated in a resolution supported by China and Russia that criticized using sanctions for geopolitical purposes; the vote was 119 to 7 in favor of the resolution, with 46 abstentions.^[59] Beijing and Moscow also increasingly disrupt routine procedures at the United Nations. In September 2024, for instance, Moscow prevented the imposition of sanctions on Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces accused of genocide, and both states blocked a plan to establish a UN peacekeeping operation in Haiti.^[60]

In this context, China has utilized the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to rally votes in the UNGA behind Russian policy preferences. For instance, on a 2022 UNGA resolution that called on Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine, thirty-six of the thirty-eight countries that opposed or abstained were BRI recipients.^[61] In February 2023, the UNGA passed another resolution that called for an end to the conflict: thirty-five of the thirty-nine abstentions or opposing votes received BRI funds.^[62] As the American novelist Emma Bull put it, “Coincidence is the word we use when we can’t see the levers and pulleys.”^[63]

China and Russia have consistently demanded across twenty-nine resolutions in the UNGA that the United States end its economic embargo of Cuba, all supported by a vast majority of the General Assembly.^[64] Further, the two elevated the role of the China- and Russia-dominated Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in a 2023 UNGA resolution that the United States opposed; the vote won eighty to two against the United States, with forty-seven abstentions.^[65] Beijing and Moscow then successfully cosponsored a proposal that insisted on “no first placement” of weapons in outer space, despite the fact both countries had already deployed dual-use space capabilities with potential military applications; they were joined by 125 other countries in opposition to Washington’s position.^[66]

Beijing has moved beyond votes in the United Nations and has expanded its leadership over the institution itself, with Moscow as the consistent junior partner. By 2019, China became the second largest financial contributor to the United Nations and, as one senior European diplomat put it, “At the UN, China’s influence is massive. They really are so powerful there and so much more sophisticated than, say, the Russians, who are only really able to spoil things. . . . They know how to work the system to their advantage.”^[67]

In 2020, China led an unprecedented four of fifteen UN special agencies: the Food and Agriculture Organization—which China still heads—the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), the Industrial Development Organization, and the International Civil Aviation Organization, all also important to Russia. Through strong influence on these standard-setting organizations, Beijing has supported autocratic models of government, similarly advanced by Moscow.

During the eight years it held the secretary-general position at the ITU, China advocated limiting online freedom of speech, and in other UN-affiliated bodies such as the Human Rights Council (HRC), it sponsored resolutions and amendments supported by Russia to disregard human rights mechanisms, empower states to delegitimize civil society, and emphasize sovereignty over basic citizen rights.^[68] China unsuccessfully attempted to keep Russia on the HRC in April 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine and abused Interpol’s Red Notice System, a mechanism for locating and extraditing criminal suspects, as part of its forced repatriation of dissidents.^[69]

Beijing provides more peacekeepers to the United Nations than the other four Security Council permanent members combined.^[70] By expanding into UN peacekeeping, China safeguards its own national interests, especially in Africa where more than 75 percent of China’s peacekeeping forces are deployed.^[71] A Chinese national was appointed special envoy for the Great Lakes region of Africa, in a move that could help “open doors at the highest levels in the Great Lakes region” to Chinese officials.^[72] With the same joint objectives, Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group and its successor have provided political and security support to authoritarian regimes in Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, Niger, and Sudan.^[73] Together, China and Russia’s power and influence in Africa have surged dramatically in the past decade, often at the United States’ expense.^[74] Thus, throughout the UN system, the duo collaborate, often with success, to thwart American policies and undermine traditional principles of international order.

China and Russia have also expanded their diplomatic arsenal to include non-Western multilateral institutions, where they exert even greater influence. In this spirit, Beijing and Moscow founded the BRICS—a group established in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, and joined the next year by South Africa. As of this writing, BRICS has hosted fifteen summits, and the organization has consistently been silent on or endorsed policies that violate standing international norms. In 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea and deployed forces in eastern Ukraine, for instance, the BRICS leaders called only for “a comprehensive dialogue” and “the de-escalation of the conflict,” without acknowledging Russian aggression.^[75]

The group was similarly quiet after Putin’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and only expressed support for “talks between Russia and Ukraine,” consistent with China’s position that would cede to Russia all Ukrainian territory it occupied.^[76] At a June 2024 meeting of BRICS foreign ministers, the organization was also highly critical of Israel’s military action in Gaza and voiced its “serious concern at Israel’s continued blatant disregard of international law,” with no mention or condemnation of Hamas, mimicking the position of the Chinese and Russian governments.^[77]

BRICS communiqués have also stressed the need to develop a new group reserve currency to reduce their reliance on the dollar and shield against U.S.-led economic sanctions—a process spearheaded by China and Russia as they increasingly trade in their own currencies.^[78] In July 2015, BRICS established the New Development Bank to provide financial assistance to developing states, absent the human rights requirements imposed by the World Bank.^[79] The organization further championed a global economic pivot away from the West in August 2023, when the bloc advocated “reform of the Bretton Woods institutions . . . including in leadership positions,” proclaimed “the importance of encouraging the use of local currencies in international trade,” and announced their opposition to “unilateral illegal measures such as sanctions” as used by the United States.^[80] To undermine the influence of Western financial institutions such as the banking messenger SWIFT, the BRICS launched a payment task force and a rival payment mechanism—BRICS Pay—and, in the weeks before the October 2024 summit in Kazan, BRICS finance and central bank officials met in Moscow. There, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov continued to push for an alternative international financial system, arguing, “It is necessary to form new conditions or even new institutions . . . within the framework of our community, within the framework of BRICS.”^[81] During his remarks at the Kazan summit, Xi made a similar argument, as he insisted that “the urgency of reforming the international financial architecture is prominent.”^[82] The group also challenged attempts by Western states to curtail Chinese electric vehicles and climate technology flooding their markets, as in June 2024 when BRICS condemned “unilateral, punitive and discriminatory protectionist measures,” with no mention of China’s own unfair trade practices.^[83]

Consistent with their efforts to organize nations against Western policies and standards, Beijing and Moscow have expanded BRICS membership. In August 2023, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates were invited to become BRICS members.^[84] Apart from Argentina, which declined, and Saudi Arabia, which remains undecided at this writing, all invitees subsequently joined.^[85] Ahead of visits by Putin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang to Southeast Asia in June 2024, Thailand and Malaysia announced their intention to join the bloc as well; in August 2024, Azerbaijan asked to join the group, followed by a formal request from Turkey a month later, and then by Cuba in early October 2024.^[86] Thirty-six delegations participated in the October 2024 BRICS summit, including over twenty heads of state.^[87] In Kazan, Xi announced four new initiatives—the BRICS Deep-Sea Resources International Research Center, China Center for Cooperation on Development of Special Economic Zones, China Center for BRICS Industrial Competencies, and BRICS Digital Ecosystem Cooperation Network—aimed to bolster Beijing’s own interests and investment opportunities while promoting China-dependent industrial development in BRICS countries.^[88] The group also established a BRICS Grain Exchange, a Russian initiative designed to dilute the dollar’s dominance in food exports.^[89] Thus, an ever larger and more influential BRICS grouping seeks to reduce the impact of Western-led institutions around the world, and to diminish U.S. influence, especially in the Global South.

With the same intent, Beijing and Moscow formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in June 2001. The SCO includes China, Russia, Belarus, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, and covers 80 percent of the Eurasian landmass, 40 percent of global population, and almost 30 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP).^[90] The organization advocates a “multipolar international order,” in contrast to what Beijing and Moscow assert is a U.S.-dominated, hegemonic international system.^[91] In November 2022, the SCO outlined its aim to create a “Greater Eurasian Partnership” comprised of SCO countries, the Eurasian Economic Union, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The organization consistently affirms support for China’s BRI and provides diplomatic backup for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, including via communiqués that condemn the West’s “unilateral economic sanctions.”^[92] A July 2023 declaration by SCO leaders lamented the “unilateral and unlimited expansion of global missile defense systems by certain countries or groups of countries,” a clear reference to U.S. policy.^[93]

With Xi at his side in July 2024, Putin explicitly labeled the SCO as a “new framework” to replace “the obsolete Europe-centric and Euro-Atlantic models that granted unilateral advantages to certain states” and warned that “[t]he use of force is increasing, the norms of international law are systemically being violated, geopolitical confrontation and conflicts are growing, and risks to stability in the world and the SCO region are multiplying.”^[94] Putin decried “unilateral attempts to resolve this Palestinian deadlock, most notably by the United States” and repeated his claim that the conflict in Ukraine is “a result of the reckless and intrusive policies of the United States and its satellites.”^[95] Beijing also used the July 2024 SCO Summit to condemn the United States, as Xi cautioned his audience about the “real risks of small yards with high fences,” a reference to U.S. policy on export of key technologies to China, and called on the members to “resist external interference.”^[96]

More important, China continually reinforces Russia’s war aims in Ukraine and conducts disinformation campaigns that adopt Russia’s formulation that the invasion is a “special military operation,” provoked by the United States and NATO expansion.^[97] China’s barrage of misleading information includes fabricated stories about U.S. bioweapon laboratories in Ukraine, claims that the United States and Ukraine falsified footage of the atrocities in Bucha, and assertions that Ukraine’s military—rather than Russian forces—was responsible for the civilian deaths in the Kramatorsk bombing.^[98]

In February 2023, Beijing issued a twelve-point proposal for negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, a plan that failed to condemn the invasion and opposed Western sanctions against Russia.^[99] In April 2024, Lavrov unsurprisingly endorsed China’s proposal as “a reasonable plan that the great Chinese civilization proposed for discussion.”^[100] The Kremlin agreed to enter such negotiations on the condition that they reflect “new realities” on the battlefield—a signal that Russia will demand control of its occupied territories in Ukraine under the Chinese settlement framework.^[101] On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September 2024, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi partnered with Brazilian foreign policy advisor Celso Amorim to rally developing countries behind Beijing’s peace proposal.^[102]

Ukrainian officials have openly condemned China’s support of the Russian position on Ukraine.^[103] During the June 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of “using Chinese influence in the region, using Chinese diplomats also . . . to disrupt the peace summit,” in reference to a Swiss-organized peace conference.^[104] He later added that it “is unfortunate that such a big independent powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin.”^[105]

Beijing and Moscow also work to take advantage of fractures in the NATO alliance, including by seeking closer ties to Budapest. Hungary and China promoted their bilateral relationship to an “all-weather, comprehensive strategic partnership” in May 2024, and Hungary has been one of the largest beneficiaries of China’s BRI in Europe (alongside Serbia).^[106] Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán visited Moscow in April 2022 and again in July 2024, in defiance of the EU and U.S. attempt to diplomatically isolate Russia.^[107] During his July 2024 talks with Putin, Orbán advocated “the shortest road to end the [Ukraine] war,” and in Orbán’s conversation with Xi the same month in Beijing, they declared, “China and Hungary share the same basic propositions and directions of efforts” on Ukraine—a perspective that includes China’s insistence on a permanent cease-fire that legitimizes Russian annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory.^[108]

In parallel, the Kremlin has supported China’s policies in the Indo-Pacific. Amid growing tensions in the South China Sea in October 2021, Putin stood at Xi’s side and opposed “interference from non-regional powers,” an allusion to U.S. policy in the region.^[109] In March 2023, Lavrov criticized Western-led partnerships such as the Quad—a grouping that includes the United States, Australia, India, and Japan—and the defense technology–sharing arrangement known as AUKUS—comprising Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—as instances of external interference in the Indo-Pacific, employed “not for economic purposes but trying to militarize.”^[110] Not long after, Russia again endorsed Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan and said it “firmly support[s] actions of the Chinese side for the defense of its state sovereignty and territorial integrity.”^[111] Putin doubled down in a speech following the March 2024 Russian presidential elections. He alleged that “unfriendly countries” were attempting “to make all kinds of provocations around Taiwan which is an inherent part of the People’s Republic of China.”^[112] When Lavrov and Wang met in April 2024, the pair claimed that NATO wished to expand into Asia and warned against the bloc “stretching its hands to our common home.”^[113] In October 2024, marking the seventy-fifth anniversary of China-Russia diplomatic relations, Lavrov condemned the United States directly, saying, “the United States and its satellites deliberately stir up the situation in the Strait of Taiwan” and reiterating that “Russia’s position on the Taiwan issue has been unchanged support for China’s territorial integrity.”^[114] At the East Asian Summit in Laos later that month, Beijing and Moscow blocked a proposed consensus statement drafted by Southeast Asian countries over language on the contested South China Sea, which Lavrov condemned as an effort by the United States to make a “purely political statement.”^[115]

All told, China and Russia have made substantial progress in the past decade and more, in a joint global diplomatic offensive to undermine U.S.-led world order and Western values and to end American leadership in the international system. As Lavrov explained in October 2024, the China-Russia entente desires a “world order . . . adjusted to current realities,” achieved through the irreversible process of “power rebalancing.”^[116]

Military Collaboration

In the last decade, Beijing and Moscow have deepened their security ties to tilt the balance of power across the Indo-Pacific and in Europe. This military cooperation rapidly intensified after Xi took office, and again after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Together, the two nations have formulated a “top-level design” to bolster their military planning in tandem and strengthen defense coordination.^[117] Two defense collaboration road maps have been developed that extend from 2017 to 2025 to enhance their joint military capabilities through security exercises and patrols.^[118] Between 2012 and 2014, Beijing and Moscow conducted nine joint military exercises.^[119] A decade later, from 2022 until August 2024, they held fifteen.^[120]

A bar graph shows that China-Russia military exercises have increased per year between 2004 and 2024.

The Chinese and Russian militaries have joined forces in a series of dynamic land exercises and pulled nations from the SCO and BRICS into their growing network of combined drills. Since China and Russia first practiced large-scale land and amphibious assaults at the 2005 bilateral Peace Mission, the series has expanded into multilateral engagement that involves member states of the SCO, such as Peace Mission 2021, which included nations from the Middle East and Central Asia.^[121] From 2018 onward, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has participated with the Russian army in the latter’s largest combat drills, and the two have enlisted countries such as South Africa and India in training maneuvers as well.^[122] Only days before NATO labeled China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the PLA started an eleven-day joint exercise with Russia-aligned Belarus.^[123]

Through unified naval and aerial exercises, China and Russia have strengthened their military interoperability and demonstrated their combined military prowess. Every year since 2012, the two have held progressively more complex Joint Sea naval simulations, often in areas of geopolitical importance. The 2016 Joint Sea exercise in the South China Sea improved their ability to attack and seize an island—a drill with obvious parallels to Chinese ambitions in Taiwan—and 2017 maneuvers in the Baltic Sea practiced live fire against surface and aerial targets.^[124] Russia joined China’s air patrols around the Indo-Pacific’s first island chain in 2019, when two Russian bombers teamed up with two Chinese counterparts for a flight over the East China Sea and Sea of Japan (often referred to as East Sea).^[125] Then, as Quad leaders met for a summit in Tokyo in May 2022, six Chinese and Russian bombers flew over the same area.^[126] On the same day, South Korea reported that two Chinese bombers and four Russian warplanes entered Seoul’s air defense identification zone without notice.^[127] From April 2023 to March 2024, China and Russia mounted a combined total of 653 incursions into Japan’s air defense identification zone and conducted 133 naval operations that required the Japanese navy to intercept the vessels.^[128]

In 2024, China and Russia accelerated their joint naval exercises. In March, the Chinese, Russian, and Iranian navies executed joint operations in the Gulf of Oman, and Chinese naval vessels one month later deployed in the waters between Taiwan and Japan, while a Russian intelligence ship approached the Japanese coast.^[129] Just a week after Japan and the Philippines signed a bilateral defense agreement that facilitated joint combat drills, Chinese and Russian warships patrolled together in the South China Sea.^[130] In September, China joined Russia’s Ocean-2024 strategic command and staff exercises, which covered the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the Mediterranean, Caspian, and Baltic Seas and involved more than four hundred sea vessels and over ninety thousand troops.^[131] The same month, the Chinese Defense Ministry announced another joint exercise with Russia, Northern/Interaction-2024, in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, which was followed by their fifth joint maritime patrol in the Pacific.^[132]

As the partnership strengthens, Beijing and Moscow have become bolder and increasingly willing to directly engage Washington. In an unprecedented move that defiantly challenged U.S. sovereignty, two Chinese and two Russian bombers penetrated Alaska’s air defense identification zone in July 2024.^[133] This deployment was “the first time that we’ve seen these two countries fly together like that,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin observed. Taking off from Russia’s Anadyr airfield, the Chinese aircraft would have been out of range without Russian support.^[134] In October 2024, following the series of joint exercises, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission Zhang Youxia in Beijing to cement the partnership, after which Belousov announced that “the military departments of Russia and China are united in their assessments of global processes, and they have a common understanding of what needs to be done.”^[135]

In the past eighteen months, the two militaries have bolstered their cooperation in the Arctic. In April 2023, the Russian Border Guard Service and the Chinese Coast Guard signed an agreement on naval law enforcement in Arctic waters.^[136] By providing monitoring equipment, Beijing enhances Russia’s efforts to secure its Arctic coastline and threatens NATO’s communications and data infrastructure.^[137] In Svalbard, a northern Norwegian archipelago, Moscow, with Beijing’s support, has exploited a 1920 treaty that granted the Soviet Union limited rights over the territory. Moscow has constructed research centers, held military parades, and projected power across the Bear Gap, a critical maritime thoroughfare to the archipelago’s south.^[138] In August 2024, Li and his Russian counterpart Mikhail Mishustin agreed in a joint communiqué to consolidate China-Russia collaboration, develop shipping routes, and strengthen technology and infrastructure in the Arctic.^[139] Later that month, China sent three icebreakers to the region, and from September 20 to October 10, 2024, Beijing and Moscow conducted their first combined coast guard patrol near Arctic shipping routes in the Sea of Japan.^[140]In the Arctic, China and Russia’s coast guard cooperation demonstrates the growing depth of their maritime alliance, which challenges the United States through gray-zone provocations.^[141]

This rapid expansion of the China-Russia partnership has established the Arctic as a frontier of strategic competition. The U.S. Department of Defense’s July 2024 Arctic Strategy report pinpointed Sino-Russian joint activities in the region: “The growing cooperation between Russia and the PRC,” it said, has “the potential to alter the Arctic’s stability and threat picture.”^[142] For the Kremlin, coordination with Beijing is essential to advance Russia’s Arctic ambitions while minimizing the influence of the Western-led Arctic Council.^[143] China’s ambassador to Moscow Zhang Hanhui told Russian media the joint exercises were “a concrete manifestation of the strategic mutual trust between the two countries,” and U.S. Rear Admiral Megan Dean stressed that these joint operations in the Bering Strait demonstrate “the increased interest in the Arctic by our strategic competitors.”^[144]

A map of the world shows China-Russia military exercise locations from January 2022 to August 2024, including the Baltic Sea, the China-Russia border, the Arabian Sea, the East China Sea and Sea of Japan, the Bering Sea and Western Pacific, and the South China Sea.

In addition to those joint exercises, China and Russia have increasingly cooperated on arms transfers. Historically, Moscow has had more advanced military capabilities than Beijing, but the gap has narrowed—and, in many domains, China has caught up or even exceeded Russian capabilities, as with stealth fighter jets.^[145] Russia maintains a technological edge in submarines, space satellites, and aircraft engines, yet China is swiftly matching and could surpass Russian capabilities.^[146]

At the beginning of the 1990s, the PLA had “mostly obsolete military equipment,” according to a RAND report.^[147] Yet decades of Russian arms transfers have helped the Chinese military modernize its forces: Chinese arms imports from Russia between 2000 and 2010 were 258 percent higher than the decade prior, and since 2007, 71 percent of China’s arms imports have come from Russia, a figure that rose to 77 percent between 2019 and 2023.^[148] These weapons include advanced aircraft, missiles, air defense systems, anti-ship missiles, and Sovremenny-class destroyers.^[149] Just two years after Xi assumed office, the Kremlin agreed to send $5 billion worth of Sukhoi Su-35 combat aircraft and S-400 missile systems to China, which strengthened the country’s air capability over the South China Sea.^[150]

Russia began to send Mi-17 helicopters in 2020 to China to support PLA air maritime expeditionary operations in the Indo-Pacific, including against Taiwan.^[151] Although no plans have been publicly announced, many analysts suspect that Beijing and Moscow will work together to operate an integrated regional missile defense system to better detect and respond to a potential missile attack on either state.^[152]

Russia is not just funneling weapons to China but is also sharing battle-hardened military expertise. Russian officers who have fought in Europe and the Middle East provide the PLA with invaluable practical insights into modern warfare, such as when Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov met with his Chinese counterpart in June 2023.^[153] According to a 2024 RAND report, the Kremlin educates Chinese military officers through professional military exchanges and facilitates their study of military theory.^[154]

The SCO helps facilitate this cooperation as well: China has unveiled a comprehensive framework for military collaboration with SCO members and emphasized its intent to leverage Russia’s recent combat experiences.^[155] In this way, the PLA shores up one of its critical military weaknesses—lack of combat experience—by tapping directly into Russian battlefield successes and failures.^[156]

Although China has not openly equipped Russia with lethal military aid after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it has supplied numerous components used in Russian military manufacturing.^[157] In April 2024, President Joe Biden raised “concerns over the PRC’s support for Russia’s defense industrial base” with Xi during their first conversation in over four months.^[158] Soon thereafter, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen visited China and “emphasized that companies, including those in the PRC, must not provide material support for Russia’s war against Ukraine, including support to the Russian defense industrial base, and the significant consequences if they do so.”^[159]

In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning emphasized that “China will not accept the accusations and pressuring. . . . If certain countries truly care about peace and want an early end to the crisis, they should reflect on the root cause of the crisis and do something that will actually help bring about peace, rather than deflect the blame to China.”^[160] Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin similarly complained, “The United States keeps making groundless accusations over the normal trade and economic exchanges between China and Russia, while passing a bill providing a large amount of aid for Ukraine. This is just hypocritical and highly irresponsible. China firmly rejects this.”^[161] In October 2024, Lavrov praised Beijing’s support as a “balanced and consistent” approach to the conflict, rightly focused on the root causes of NATO expansion and the “anti-Russian military bridgehead in Ukraine.”^[162]

During the same time period, China has furnished Russia with dual-use goods that have enhanced Russia’s capabilities on the battlefield.^[163] In the first ten months of the war alone, Chinese companies sent $570 million worth of semiconductors to Russia—an increase from $200 million over all of 2021.^[164] By 2023, China provided 90 percent of Russia’s semiconductors, technology vital for the production of tanks, missiles, and aircraft.^[165] Much of this trade is conducted under the guise of Chinese shell companies, which China uses to evade U.S. sanctions and send restricted technology components to Russia.^[166] After a meeting between Xi and Putin in March 2023, China provided massive shipments to Russia of precision manufacturing equipment used in critical weapons systems—with over ten thousand transactions per month between March and July.^[167] China also buttressed Russia’s fighting force by exporting trucks to move personnel and materiel along combat supply lines, including excavators and front-end shovel loaders to dig trenches. It also provides geospatial information that enables Russian forces to target Ukrainian troops on the front line, as well as access to satellite photographs of Ukrainian nuclear plants.^[168]

In a meeting with Wang, at the UN General Assembly in late September 2024, Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned China’s dual-use technology support to Russia and later reiterated the dangers of this China-Russia partnership at a news conference, saying “insofar as that relationship involves providing Russia what it needs to continue this war, that’s a problem for us, and it’s a problem for many other countries.”^[169]

China’s support has effectively sustained Russia’s war in Ukraine. This crucial assistance has allowed the Kremlin to “almost completely” reconstitute its military, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell stated. “With the support of China in particular,” he said, “dual use capabilities . . . [and a] variety of other efforts, industrial and commercial, Russia has retooled.”^[170] A State Department spokesman similarly observed, “What we have seen over the past months is that there have been materials moving from China to Russia that Russia has used to rebuild [its] industrial base and produce arms that are showing up on the battlefield in Ukraine,” and, “If the PRC were to end its support for exporting these items, Russia would struggle to sustain its war effort.”^[171]

A graph shows a tenfold increase of Chinese exports of semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to Russia between 2017 and 2024.

Economic Collaboration

The China-Russia quasi-alliance has been cemented by strong economic ties. Between 2000 and 2021, China’s annual trade with Russia grew eighteen-fold, and this process only accelerated after the further imposition of sanctions against Russia in 2022.^[172] Since then, Sino-Russian trade has provided vital support for the Kremlin amid increasing economic pressure imposed by the West.

After the February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO governments applied sanctions to punish Russia and attempted to grind its military operations to a halt. The United States froze $5 billion of the Russian central bank’s assets, barred Russian banks’ access to the financial messenger service SWIFT, and suspended U.S. investors’ ability to trade Russian securities.^[173] By the end of 2022, Moscow was unable to conduct commerce with much of the Western world, and its economy contracted by 1.2 percent.^[174] To offset these economic strictures, Russia pivoted to China for support. In the first year of the war, China provided Russia with just over 40 percent of its total imports, and during the following two years bilateral trade surged from $146.9 billion to an all-time high of $240.1 billion as Chinese exports met newfound Russian demand.^[175]

Without European imports, the sale of Chinese goods has soared in Russian markets: Chinese phones now make up 95 percent of Russia’s phone market, its washing machines and refrigerators lead the Russian household appliance sector, and its cars are the new norm on Russian streets.^[176] Chinese auto exports to Russia alone exploded by 594 percent in 2023.^[177] Trade with China has thus helped ease the sting of sanctions in the Russian economy, which grew by 3.6 percent in 2023.^[178] Since May 2023, China has sold more to Russia per month than the European Union (formerly Russia’s largest trading partner) ever did.^[179] Given this vital economic support for Russia, it is no wonder that Finnish President Alexander Stubb has asserted that China could end the war with “one phone call.”^[180]

In addition to trade, Beijing has provided Moscow with critical financial lifelines. Circumventing Western financial institutions, Russian banks have signed on to China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which saw its average transaction volume rise 50 percent in 2022 and another 25 percent in the first three quarters of 2023.^[181] Using CIPS and other platforms, trade between the two countries is increasingly conducted in Chinese yuan, which supplanted the U.S. dollar as the most used currency on the Moscow Exchange in 2023.^[182] The renminbi has since become the de facto reserve currency in Russia, despite not being fully convertible. Even as Putin complains about the dominance of the dollar, his regime has reduced the diversity of holdable currencies.^[183]

The share of yuan payments in Russian exports has grown from 0.5 percent in 2021 to 34.5 percent in 2024, and includes Russian trade with states beyond China.^[184] In 2024, the share of bilateral trade denominated in yuan or rubles passed 90 percent, according to official figures.^[185]

The yuan’s lack of convertibility has raised transaction costs for Russian trade, and Chinese monetary policy has already produced damaging side effects on the Russian economy, such as in March 2022 when Beijing relaxed exchange rate controls, causing the ruble to fall.^[186] In the second quarter of 2024, Chinese banks reduced assets and halted some trade in Russia under U.S. threats of secondary sanctions, driving up transaction costs by 6 percent.^[187] Russian sinologist Vasily Kashin has acknowledged that Beijing will have greater influence in Russian politics and economics in the future: “China,” he writes, “will have the opportunity to use the levers of economic diplomacy to influence our political positions . . . [China] will have the opportunity to dictate prices. And we will have to live with this.”^[188]

A line graph demonstrates the rise of Chinese exports, and the decline of EU and U.S. exports, to Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.

The two nations have also integrated their Arctic economic strategies. For decades, Beijing’s ambitions in the region were checked by Moscow’s insistence that only the Arctic Council (of which China is but an observer) is entitled to shape policy in the High North.^[189] As noted above, however, Russia’s opposition to China’s Arctic presence has significantly relaxed since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as Russia’s economic dependence has given China a much stronger bargaining position. In a shift from Russia’s previous approach, Putin stated in March 2023 that “we see cooperation with Chinese partners in developing the transit potential of the Northern Sea Route as promising.”^[190] China has invested $90 billion in energy extraction and infrastructure projects along the Russian Arctic coast, and investments include $300 million for a coal terminal in Murmansk by a state-owned Chinese defense company, and a deep-water port in Arkhangelsk.^[191] Similarly, China and Russia have expanded their influence in Antarctica. In February 2024, China established a new research station close to an American one, which has raised concerns that the station will be used to collect intelligence.^[192] In October, Beijing and Moscow partnered to block every proposal at the annual meeting of the Commission for the Conservation of the Antarctic Marine Living Resources, arguing it would limit their ability to use and develop in the region.^[193]

China has further benefited from the discounted rate of Russian hydrocarbons. In March 2022, the United States prohibited imports of Russian crude oil, liquified natural gas, and coal. Later that year, the European Union and Group of Seven (G7) embargoed most Russian oil and established price caps; this was followed by bans on diesel and gasoline the following year.^[194] China immediately took advantage of the subsequent deflated price of Russian energy and bought 45 percent of all Russian coal exports from December 2022 through April 2024. By the end of 2023, China had become the largest importer of Russian crude oil at 2.3 million barrels per day, up from 1.6 million barrels per day just two years prior.^[195] In 2023, despite an 11 percent increase in Chinese oil imports, China was able to cut its spending on oil by nearly 8 percent through discounted Russian supplies.^[196] “Russian natural gas is fueling numerous Chinese homes and Chinese-made automobiles are running on Russian roads,” remarked Wang.^[197] This has led the U.S. intelligence community to conclude, “Beijing is balancing the level of its support to Moscow to maintain the relationship without incurring risk to its own economic and diplomatic interests. In return, China is securing favorable energy prices.”^[198]

The prevailing narrative around the China-Russia economic relationship often paints it as a one-sided affair, with Russia cast as the dependent partner relying heavily on its eastern neighbor. Yet in reality, Russia is a crucial player in China’s energy security strategy and in 2023 overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s largest oil supplier.^[199] A steady flow of gas and oil from Siberia offers an alternate source of energy for China, and greater security in case supplies from the Middle East traveling via the Indian and Pacific maritime routes are cut off in a conflict with the United States.^[200] Russia could be “the only foreign source of oil—that China could conceivably continue to preserve,” as Zhao Huasheng, professor at Fudan University, has stressed.^[201] In short, the China-Russia economic relationship is a dynamic partnership built on mutual advantage, where both nations are reaping the rewards of their growing collaboration.

The rapid ascent of the China-Russia strategic partnership is reshaping the global landscape, creating ever-growing threats to the United States. As they work together to undermine Western influence, Xi and Putin are not merely tactical allies of convenience but rather joint architects of a revisionist international order. Their surge of diplomatic engagement, military cooperation, energy deals, and technology transfers illustrates their deepening strategic ties and manifests their future intent. Over the long term, China and Russia mean to diminish the United States and its allies as the most important arbiters of global policies, rules, and practices. In sum, their surge in diplomatic engagement, military cooperation, and economic interaction is to ensure that the international system promotes their authoritarian practices and protects their preferred spheres of influence.

Policy Recommendations

The United States today faces an aggressive Russia and assertive China, each powerful in different ways and collaborating more closely than ever before. They lead a collection of dissatisfied states aiming to overturn the principles, rules, and institutions that underlie the prevailing international system. Working together, they enhance one another’s military capabilities; dilute the efficacy of U.S. foreign policy tools, including sanctions; and hinder the ability of the United States and its partners to enforce global rules. Their collective aim is to create an alternative to the current order, which they consider to be dominated by the United States.^[202] As CIA Director William Burns stressed in October 2024, “It would be a huge mistake for us at CIA and the U.S. government, or anyone watching that relationship, to underestimate the strength of the partnership right now: the sort of strong personal relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, their sense of shared determination to undermine an international order that the United States has played a very large role in helping to shape.”^[203]

As a result, Washington needs to compete with—and if necessary, confront—both Moscow and Beijing simultaneously and indefinitely. It amounts to a daunting geopolitical reality. In 1880, the Prussian leader Otto von Bismarck contended that “as long as the world is governed by the unstable equilibrium of five great powers,” Germany should “try to be one of three.” Among today’s three great powers, two are far closer to each other than to the United States. There is little prospect of any near-term change in this basic strategic equation. As a result, how the United States should operate in a world with two great-power antagonists is the central question in U.S. foreign policy.^[204]

The Fantasy of Wedge-Driving

As noted earlier, the first task is to reject neat but fanciful solutions. Some in recent years have imagined a grand diplomatic move that would flip Russia to the United States’ side in its competition with China; others have proposed somehow siding with China to balance and marginalize Russian power. Unlike President Richard Nixon’s opening to China in the 1970s, however, which took advantage of a Sino-Soviet split to draw China further away from Russia, there is no equivalent ideological or geopolitical rivalry for the United States to exploit today. The price of trying would likely involve U.S. recognition of a Russian or Chinese sphere of influence in Europe and Asia—regions central to U.S. interests and ones that the United States should not allow a hostile foreign power to dominate.^[205] China and Russia represent neither chess pieces to be moved through assiduous acts of wise statesmanship nor great-power challengers that can be handled effectively without American activism. They are, rather, enduring and differentiated challenges that should be managed simultaneously.^[206]

More modest hopes of driving wedges between the two are equally unrealistic. Attempting to enhance Russia-China tension in Central Asia, for instance, or over North Korea or on some other issue, is likely to fail, for a simple reason: their real differences with each other pale in comparison with those they have with the United States. Moscow and Beijing manage disagreements and tensions in pursuit of their larger strategic aims. There is nothing Washington can offer either, at least at acceptable cost, that would meaningfully open a gap between the two.

As a result, containing Russia and deterring China are the twin tasks of U.S. policy today. For much of its history, the United States has sought to prevent the emergence of a hostile power that could dominate either end of Eurasia. Today, in both Europe and Asia, such hostile powers seek to influence, if not dominate, regions of vital importance to the United States—and they are increasingly collaborating in the attempt.

Tackling the Twin Tasks

Crucial to managing the advancing China-Russia axis are clarifying objectives, setting priorities, and making difficult trade-offs across regions and issues. Strengthening alliances, building up domestic strength, and taking advantage of time are critical. Yet even by doing all this, the United States will still be unable to counter Chinese and Russian influence everywhere, and on every issue, indefinitely—nor should it try. It needs to selectively engage in the areas, and on the issues, that are most important.

To that end, the United States should take the following steps:

Leverage allies such as NATO, the five Pacific allies, and the G7, and strengthen connections to and among new partners. China and Russia’s economic weight and military strength are formidable, as are their connections with North Korea and Iran—but the combined might of the United States and its allies is greater still. The U.S. alliance structure, augmented by new and non-allied partners, represents a central advantage for the United States. The world’s most powerful democracies are on the United States’ side.^[207]

A key to the success of this strategy is not only to work with partners but also to acquire new ones and make the ties among them stronger—hence Sweden and Finland’s joining NATO, AUKUS, and the ascent of the Quad.^[208] China and Russia are engaged in their own efforts to enlist like-minded partners such as Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela; the United States has more to offer others and should do so.

Increase defense spending, investments in domestic innovation, foreign aid, and other sources of U.S. strength. Washington today spends less than 3 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, approaching the lowest level since the late 1990s—the height of the post–Cold War peace dividend.^[209] A significant increase in defense spending is necessary to deal simultaneously with China and Russia alongside other threats. Efforts to enhance domestic innovation, make supply chains more resilient, invest in advanced technology, increase foreign aid, strengthen the defense industrial base, and defend U.S. election infrastructure are similarly required.^[210]

Exploit temporal asymmetries between Russian and Chinese actions. China employs economic coercion and diplomatic pressure but has yet to fully exercise its military option; Russia is using nearly all instruments of national power to conquer Ukraine. This suggests that a major effort to punish Russian transgressions now could render that country weaker, poorer, and far less militarily capable in the future—precisely when China could wish to match its growing strength with overt aggression. The United States should focus a great deal of energy and resources on the Russian threat in its current acute phase while resolving to devote the lion’s share of both to China over the long run.^[211]

Adopt measures to offset the Axis of Upheaval. China and Russia are also increasingly working in concert with Iran and North Korea.^[212] The four powers identify common national interests, match up their rhetoric, and coordinate their military and diplomatic activities. Russia has been one of Iran’s top weapons suppliers over the past two decades, provides it with intelligence, is Iran’s largest source of foreign investment, and supplies weapons to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies to undermine U.S. policies throughout the Middle East.^[213] Similarly, China has emboldened Iran through joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman for three consecutive years, most recently in March 2024, and continues to be a key economic partner for Iran, representing the number-one buyer of its oil.^[214] At the same time, North Korea has expanded its nuclear and missile capabilities without further Security Council sanctions because of Russian and Chinese vetoes, Russia has released millions of dollars in North Korean assets previously frozen in Russian banks, and China remains North Korea’s largest trade partner.

These four governments are fundamentally altering the geopolitical landscape. U.S. efforts to deter key activities by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia failed for fifteen years across multiple administrations.^[215] During this period, Russia annexed Crimea without a consequential U.S.-NATO response. China militarized the South China Sea without an effective U.S. response; expanded its defense, economic, and diplomatic reach throughout Asia and beyond; and now puts ever-greater pressure on Taiwan.

These autocratic regimes increasingly collaborate and have seemingly concluded that they pay an acceptable price—or no price at all—for their destabilizing actions. It is, therefore, no surprise that they currently see little value in geopolitical accommodation with a United States that they perceive is in permanent decline.

Until the United States and its allies give them sufficient reasons to relent, they will persist in their malignant designs, diplomacy will hold limited promise, and war will be more likely. As George Shultz wisely observed, “Negotiations are a euphemism for capitulation if the shadow of power is not cast across the bargaining table.” The West’s strategy has been too cautious, uncertain, and episodic to reverse these
perilous trends.

One approach will obviously not fit all these hostile states, but policies should exact harsher penalties against China for its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, violations of freedom of the seas, trade malpractices, geoeconomic coercion, theft of intellectual property, and interference in the domestic politics of others. The United States should also

accelerate arms sales to Taiwan,
increase substantially and quicken security assistance to Ukraine,
allow Ukraine to attack Russian bases that launch weapons against it,
impose wider and tighter economic sanctions against Russia,
end Iran’s sanctuary from U.S. retaliation for its attacks through proxies on American and allied forces,
impose tougher sanctions against Iran, and
substantially strengthen U.S. military presence in Northeast Asia.

This will not be easy. In sum, this approach will require a U.S. administration willing to take more risks than its recent predecessors. It will require a U.S. domestic majority in favor of steps such as these and a grand strategy in which they are embedded. It will require consistent and resolute leadership by the American president. It will require a revitalization of the U.S. defense industrial base, for the United States to once again become an arsenal for democracy. It will require the United States to finally pivot to Asia where its vital national interests are so decisively engaged. It will require a long-term major growth in U.S. and allied defense spending. These countermeasures will not produce victory through regime change in Communist China or in the others, but they could well reestablish a stable world order through sustainable regional and global balances of power and adroit negotiation.

Focus on places and issues that could disproportionately damage U.S. national interests and substantially benefit China or Russia. Assessed individually, every region—Asia, Europe, the Global South, the Middle East, the Western Hemisphere—has a claim to priority, and many issues have constituencies inside or outside government that argue for their importance. Actions by Moscow or Beijing that would contest key principles of international order, constrict Washington’s freedom to act, or undermine the domestic functioning of foreign countries should broadly define what is most important. The large remainder of Russian and Chinese activities around the world thatare undesirable, offensive, and even contrary to U.S. interests should be relegated to a lower tier of priority and receive a significantly smaller share of American national security resources and attention.^[216]

Defend key principles and institutions in regions that matter most, such as East Asia and Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violates the cardinal rule against the forcible theft of foreign territory and shakes a crucial foundation of the rules-based order. The United States has a strong interest in ensuring that such a transgression is not only punished but rendered unsuccessful, not least so that the next would-be aggressor is discouraged from pursuing a similar course.

Chinese activity in the South China Sea threatens the maritime rules that allow for vital commercial operations and so should represent a key area of focus for U.S. policy. The protection of American democratic practice against malign interference by Russia or China is critical to the functioning of the U.S. political system.^[217]

China’s Belt and Road Initiative poses potential debt-trap dilemmas for all recipients, but the United States should contest its expansion in Southeast Asia (where increased Chinese influence could lead to naval bases that could impede U.S. interests) to a much greater degree than in Central Asia (where the United States’ ability to operate will not be affected). Similarly, the United States should focus more on blocking the creation of a Chinese naval facility in the South Pacific than in West Africa, though China seeks bases in both regions, as the downside costs of Chinese military influence are substantially greater in the Indo-Pacific theater than elsewhere.

Redeploy U.S. military forces to the Indo-Pacific to deter China from using force. Here too the United States has a solid foundation on which to build, including a strengthening U.S.-Japan alliance (and significantly increasing Japanese defense capability), new base access in the Philippines and Papua New Guinea, the AUKUS defense technology–sharing platform with Australia and the United Kingdom, and innovative efforts in the Department of Defense such as the Replicator Initiative.^[218] The United States should relocate U.S. air and naval assets from Europe and the Middle East to Asia, surging only for significant operations such as the Israel-Gaza conflict. As the United States transforms its defense forces to one focused on a conventional Indo-Pacific contingency, it should be possessed by a sense of urgency: the regional military balance continues to shift away from the United States and its allies.

Establish a dynamic U.S. trade policy toward Asia. Following the collapse of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Washington watched as each nation in the region became ever more dependent on trade with Beijing and more vulnerable to Beijing’s geoeconomic coercion. Joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership would increase U.S. access to lucrative Asian markets and give the United States the ability to shape rules in the region and beyond. More politically palatable steps toward reentry, such as pursuing a bilateral or regional digital trade deal, could help in the near term. In the meantime, the United States should identify areas of economic dependence with China that incur national security risk and pursue alternative arrangements. Above all, developing a robust U.S. trade policy in Asia would send a broad signal of sustained American leadership and presence in the region.

Prepare for opportunistic aggression by Beijing or Moscow. In a conflict with either China or Russia, simultaneous aggression by the other party represents a real threat. If a Chinese invasion of Taiwan prompts U.S. military intervention, for instance, Russia could be tempted to move against another European country. A widening conflict in Europe could prompt China to make a long-awaited move on Taiwan. Even concurrent, non-coordinated conflicts could overwhelm the West. The United States will therefore need to press allies to invest in capabilities that it could not provide if it were already engaged in another military theater.^[219]

Contain Russian expansionism through military collaboration with NATO allies and, as pertinent, sanctions on China. The United States should continue and augment many of the policies put into place since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It should enforce sanctions on Russia, especially export controls that aim to prevent dual-use goods from entering the country, and impose secondary sanctions on Chinese or other companies providing alternatives to Western components. The United States should encourage NATO allies to spend more on their own defense and work with them to deploy forces closer to Russian borders. It should also enhance its efforts, through sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and information releases, to limit China’s support for Russian military activities and the eventual reconstitution of its defense forces.

Improve and better fund U.S. public diplomacy and messaging. China and Russia each boast sophisticated, well-financed broadcasting, print, and social media efforts available around the world and in many languages. Their efforts attempt to draw attention to the United States’ domestic flaws and rally support for alternatives to U.S. foreign policy leadership. Beijing and Moscow have reinforced each other’s efforts as well, parroting each other’s talking points, supporting the other’s policy positions, and defending each other from criticism.

The United States should far more actively contest the information environment. It should consistently draw public attention in Europe to Chinese support for Russia’s war of aggression. It should highlight in Asia the provision of Russian military equipment that threatens China’s neighbors. Congress should fund programs that support democracy and help like-minded countries protect themselves against external meddling. Articulating the positive case is critical as well; the United States should stand for freedom, sovereignty, independence, and a stable world order based on liberal values and the rule of law.^[220]

Cultivate the “global swing states.” In the competition between the United States and China and Russia, six global swing states will be particularly important: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey are all middle powers with enough collective geopolitical weight for their policy preferences to sway the future direction of the international order. Washington should make it a priority to deny advantages to Moscow and Beijing in these countries, encouraging their governments to choose policies that favor the prevailing order. In practice, that means using trade incentives, military engagement, foreign aid, and diplomacy to prevent swing states from hosting Chinese or Russian military bases, giving them access to technology infrastructure or military equipment, or helping them circumvent Western sanctions.^[221]

Diplomatic engagement with China and Russia is not in opposition to a competitive approach but rather a necessary element of it.

Engage in bilateral diplomacy with Beijing and Moscow. Much inherent in the U.S. relationship with China and Russia provokes tensions, and many of the recommendations in this report could increase rather than reduce them. It is worth remembering that China and Russia are each powerful, nuclear-armed great powers. Should competition and containment become crisis and conflict, the price would be extraordinarily high and potentially catastrophic. The United States should endeavor mightily to avoid such a dire outcome.

This requires intensive diplomacy with both adversaries. Diplomatic engagement with China and Russia is not in opposition to a competitive approach but rather a necessary element of it. Washington should discuss matters including strategic stability, outer space, artificial intelligence safety and stability, and more with Beijing and Moscow.

Pursue domestic political unity and international leadership. China and Russia are emboldened by the sense that political divisions at home or exhaustion with international engagement will keep the United States distracted, inwardly focused, and unable to develop national solutions to critical problems. A comprehensive, well-resourced U.S. strategy with bipartisan support would help counter that impression. This should be coupled with an affirmative articulation of the United States’ international role and then vigorous actions to make it real. The alternative—a reduction in the U.S. global presence—would leave the fate of crucial regions in the hands not of friendly local powers but of axis members seeking to impose their revisionist and illiberal preferences.^[222] The United States has the power, economy, population, geography, allies, and values necessary to prevail in a long term contest with China and Russia. The only question is whether it will muster the unity and political will necessary to do so.

Conclusion

China and Russia have been clear about the world they seek. They want no further NATO enlargement, no color revolutions, no globe-spanning U.S. missile defense system, and no American nuclear weapons deployed abroad. They wish to resist actors “representing but the minority on the international scale”—that is, the United States and its allies—who continue to interfere in other states and “incite contradictions, differences and confrontation.”^[223] In the world to come, no one would pressure China or Russia on human rights or interfere in their internal affairs. Democracy itself would be redefined and subject to no universal standard. China and Russia would support reunification with Taiwan and oppose alliances in Asia that China finds threatening.^[224] They would together oversee the transition to a world in which great powers dominate their regions and no one attempts to impose or enforce global rules.

The upshot, as former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates puts it, is that a “new American strategy must recognize that we face a global struggle of indeterminate duration against two great powers that share authoritarianism at home and hostility to the United States.”^[225] Because of Russian-Chinese collaboration, the war in Ukraine is longer and more brutal than it would otherwise be, the Indo-Pacific military balance of power has shifted away from the United States more quickly, and more countries dissatisfied with the constraints of Western-led world order are increasingly vocal and active in resisting it.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 erased any last vestiges of the post–Cold War era and ushered in a new, more dangerous era. Moscow and Beijing had long coordinated and increasingly aligned their efforts, but the war gave rise to a new, more active and more determined alignment. For all the real limits to their partnership, the two are bound by shared opposition to a U.S.-led world that, they believe, affords them too little security, status, and freedom of action.

The era is daunting but also contains real strains of hope. Ensuring that Europe and Asia remain free of hostile domination is, of course, not a new objective of U.S. foreign policy. In this fresh effort, the United States and its allies have everything they need to succeed. Their combined economies are larger than China’s and Russia’s, and their militaries more powerful. Their values are more attractive and their democratic system more stable.^[226] U.S. leaders should add to those advantages a clarity of purpose, resolve, and confidence in their system and in the American future. Some critics will say that all this is just too hard for the United States at such a contentious and divisive period in its history. That conclusion, however, would profoundly test the Churchillian theorem that the United States always wakes up late to far-reaching external dangers, but never too late.

Endnotes

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Endnotes

^{^}Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (New York: Basic Books, 1998), 54.
^{^}“China’s Xi Tells Putin of ‘Changes Not Seen for 100 Years,’” Al Jazeera, March 22, 2023, http://aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/xi-tells-putin-of-changes-not-seen-….
^{^}Simone McCarthy, “In Beijing, Xi and Putin Left No Question of Their Close Alignmentin a Divided World,” CNN, May 17, 2024, http://cnn.com/2024/05/17/china/xi-putin-china-visit-takeaways-intl-hnk…; Guy Faulconbridge, “Putin and Xi Deepen Partnership and Scold the United States,” Reuters, May 16, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/putin-xi-deepen-partnership-scold-united-state….
^{^}Simone McCarthy, “China Has a Sweeping Vision to Reshape the World—and Countries Are Listening,” CNN, November 10, 2023, http://cnn.com/2023/11/09/china/china-xi-jinping-world-order-intl-hnk/i…; Kevin Rudd, “The World According to Xi Jinping,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 6 (November/December 2022): 8–21, http://foreignaffairs.com/china/world-according-xi-jinping-china-ideolo…; Tatiana Stanovaya, “Putin’s Age of Chaos,” Foreign Affairs 102, no. 5 (September/October 2023): 44–59, http://foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/vladimir-putin-age-chaos.
^{^}“China’s New National Map Has Set Off a Wave of Protests. Why?” Associated Press, September 1, 2023, http://apnews.com/article/china-map-territorial-dispute-south-sea-702c4…; “China, Russia Solve All Border Disputes,” Xinhua Net, archived January 12, 2009, at the Wayback Machine, http://web.archive.org/web/20090112225410/http://news.xinhuanet.com/eng….
^{^}Ryan Ho Kilpatrick, “On National Humiliation, Don’t Mention the Russians,” Chinese Media Project, March 24, 2023, http://chinamediaproject.org/2023/03/24/on-national-humiliation-dont-me….
^{^}“‘Nuclear Wars Must Not Be Fought,’ China President Xi Says,” Al Jazeera, November 5, 2022, http://aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/5/nuclear-wars-must-not-be-fought-say….
^{^}Clara Fong and Lindsay Maizland, “China and Russia: Exploring Ties Between Two Authoritarian Powers,” Backgrounder, Council on Foreign Relations, March 20, 2024, http://cfr.org/backgrounder/china-russia-relationship-xi-putin-taiwan-u….
^{^}Temur Umarov and Nargis Kassenova, “China and Russia’s Overlapping Interests in Central Asia,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 22, 2024, http://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/02/china-and-russias-overlappin…; “Russia and China in Central Asia: Potential for Direct Competition,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, streamed live on May 24, 2024, YouTube video, 2:04, http://youtube.com/watch?v=WhuOnV_2ku8; David Pierson and Choe Sang-Hun, “Russia and North Korea’s Defense Pact Is a New Headache for China,” New York Times, June 20, 2024, http://nytimes.com/2024/06/20/world/asia/china-russia-north-korea.html.
^{^}Marc Lanteigne, “A China-Russia Arctic Alliance? Not So Fast,” The Diplomat, February 21, 2024, http://thediplomat.com/2024/02/a-china-russia-arctic-alliance-not-so-fa….
^{^}David Brennan, “Russia Breaks Silence Over China Map Claiming Its Territory,” Newsweek, September 1, 2023, http://newsweek.com/russia-breaks-silence-china-map-disputed-islands-18….
^{^}David Vergun, “Russia Reportedly Supplying Enriched Uranium to China,” U.S Department of Defense, DOD News, March 8, 2023, http://defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3323381/russia-rep….
^{^}Stuart Lau, “China’s Xi Warns Putin Not to Use Nuclear Arms in Ukraine,” Politico, November 4, 2022, http://politico.eu/article/china-xi-jinping-warns-vladimir-putin-not-to…; Max Seddon, James Kynge, John Paul Rathbone, Felicia Schwartz, “Xi Jinping Warned Vladimir Putin Against Nuclear Attack in Ukraine,” Financial Times, July 5, 2023, http://ft.com/content/c5ce76df-9b1b-4dfc-a619-07da1d40cbd3.
^{^}U.S. Department of Defense, 2024 Arctic Strategy, June 21, 2024, 4, http://media.defense.gov/2024/Jul/22/2003507411/-1/-1/0/DOD-ARCTIC-STRA….
^{^}[15] “Russia in Review, Aug. 30–Sept. 6, 2024,” Russia Matters, September 6, 2024, http://russiamatters.org/news/russia-review/russia-review-aug-30-sept-6….
^{^}James V. Wertsch, “Possible Limits to Putin and Xi’s No-Limits Friendship,” Russia File, Wilson Center, October 20, 2023, http://wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/possible-limits-putin-and-xis-no-limi…; Laura Bicker, “Putin and Xi No Longer Have a Partnership of Equals,” BBC, May 17, 2024, http://bbc.com/news/articles/c2lekp48n78o.
^{^}Fong and Maizland, “China and Russia.”
^{^}Zhao Huasheng, “Beixi wang | zhong’e guanxi: zouchu ewu chongtu de miwu (shang)” [“Gazing Northwest | Sino-Russian Relations: Moving Away From the Dense Fog of the Russia-Ukraine War”], Pengpai xinwen, August 2, 2022, http://thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_19280195.
^{^}Scott Neuman, “As Relations With U.S. Sour, Xi Describes Putin as ‘Best Friend’ at Moscow Meeting,” NPR, June 6, 2019, http://npr.org/2019/06/06/730200317/as-relations-with-u-s-sour-xi-descr…; Wing Kuang, “Xi Jinping Once Called Vladimir Putin His ‘Bosom Buddy,’ but Russia’s Failing Gambit in Ukraine Hands China an Opportunity,” ABC News, April 1, 2022, http://abc.net.au/news/2022-04-02/china-russia-ukraine-war-foreign-poli…; Joseph Torigian, “Xi Jinping’s Russian Lessons,” Foreign Affairs, June 24, 2024, http://foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-jinping-russia-lessons-putin; China Power Team, “What Are the Key Strengths of the China-Russia Relationship?,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 9, 2023, http://chinapower.csis.org/china-russia-relationship-strengths-benefit; “China’s Xi Meets With Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Show of Support Against Western Democracies,” Associated Press, April 9, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/china-russia-lavrov-ukraine-38cf75eb975b5fd1b….
^{^}“How China Uses Russia to Chew Up the UN,” The Economist, May 28, 2024, http://economist.com/china/2024/05/28/china-uses-russia-as-a-wrecking-b….
^{^}China Power Team, “How Deep Are China-Russia Military Ties?,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 4, 2022, http://chinapower.csis.org/china-russia-military-cooperation-arms-sales….
^{^}Rhea Mogul and Simone McCarthy, “China’s Largest Oil Supplier in 2023 Was Russia,” CNN, January 22, 2024, http://cnn.com/2024/01/22/business/china-top-oil-supplier-2023-russia-i….
^{^}Nathaniel Sher, “Behind the Scenes: China’s Increasing Role in Russia’s Defense Industry,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/05/behind-the….
^{^}“China and Russia Have Chilling Plans for the Arctic,” The Economist, June 19, 2024, http://economist.com/china/2024/06/19/china-and-russia-have-chilling-pl….
^{^}Frederick Kempe, “The U.S. Confronts Two Global Threats: China-Russia and Itself,” Atlantic Council, September 28, 2024, http://atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/the-us-conf….
^{^}Alexander Gabuev, “Putin and Xi’s Unholy Alliance,” Foreign Affairs, April 9, 2024, http://foreignaffairs.com/china/putin-and-xis-unholy-alliance.
^{^}Simone McCarthy, “Chinese Leader Xi Meets Russia’s Lavrov as Two Partners Tout Strong Ties,” CNN, April 9, 2024, http://cnn.com/2024/04/09/china/xi-jinping-lavrov-russia-china-ukraine-….
^{^}Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Pei-Lin Wu, “Putin Hails Russia’s Ties With China as ‘Stabilizing’ Force in the World,” Washington Post, May 16, 2024, http://washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/15/russia-vladimir-putin-china-….
^{^}Mary Glantz and Carla Freeman, “Xi and Putin Strengthen Ties, Spurn U.S. Leadership,” U.S. Institute of Peace, May 23, 2024, http://usip.org/publications/2024/05/xi-and-putin-strengthen-strategic-….
^{^}“Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development,” President of Russia, February 4, 2022, http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770.
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}Ryan Chan, “Ukraine War Leaves Russia’s Border With China Weakened,” Newsweek, July 11, 2024, http://newsweek.com/ukraine-war-russia-border-china-weakened-1923645.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables,” UN Dag Hammarskjöld Library, last modified April 24, 2024, http://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick.
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables”; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 14, The Situation in Myanmar, S/2007/14 (January 12, 2007), http://undocs.org/en/S/2007/14.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables”; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 447, Peace and Security in Africa, S/2008/447 (July 11, 2008), http://undocs.org/en/S/2008/447.
^{^}UN Security Council, Written Record 5933, Peace and Security in Africa, S/PV.5933 (January 11, 2008), http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.5933.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables”; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 612, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2011/612 (October 4, 2011), http://undocs.org/en/S/2011/612; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 77, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2012/77 (February 4, 2012), http://undocs.org/en/S/2012/77; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 538, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2012/538 (July 19, 2012), http://undocs.org/en/S/2012/538; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 348, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2012/348 (May 22, 2014), http://undocs.org/en/S/2014/348.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables”; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 1026, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2016/1026 (December 5, 2016), http://undocs.org/en/S/2016/1026.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables”; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 172, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2017/172 (February 28, 2017), http://undocs.org/en/S/2017/172.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables”; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 186, The Situation in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, S/2019/186 (February 28, 2019), http://undocs.org/en/S/2019/186; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 756, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2019/756 (September 19, 2019), http://undocs.org/en/S/2019/756.
^{^}“Letter Dated 14 August 2020 From the President of the Security Council Addressed to the Secretary-General and the Permanent Representatives of the Members of the Security Council,” UN Digital Library, August 14, 2020, http://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3876827?ln=en&v=pdf; Pamela Falk, “U.N. Security Council Votes Not to Extend Arms Embargo Against Iran,” CBS News, August 14, 2020, http://cbsnews.com/news/iran-arms-embargo-u-n-security-council-votes-no…; Michelle Nichols, “Russia, China Build Case at U.N. to Protect Iran From U.S. Sanctions Threat,” Reuters, June 9, 2020, http://reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-russia-china/russia-china-build-….
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables”; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 654, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2020/654 (July 7, 2020), http://undocs.org/en/S/2020/654; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 667, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2020/667 (July 10, 2020), http://undocs.org/en/S/2020/667.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables”; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 431, Non-Proliferation/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, S/2022/431, (May 26, 2022), http://undocs.org/en/S/2022/431; Samantha Beech, “China and Russia Veto New UN Sanctions on North Korea for First Time Since 2006,” CNN, May 27, 2022, http://cnn.com/2022/05/26/asia/us-north-korea-united-nations-intl-hnk/i….
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables”; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 792, The Situation in the Middle East, Including the Palestinian Question, S/2023/792 (October 25, 2023), http://undocs.org/en/S/2023/792; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 239, The Situation in the Middle East, Including the Palestinian Question, S/2024/239 (March 22, 2024), http://undocs.org/en/S/2024/239.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables.”
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 189, Letter Dated 28 February 2014 From the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations Addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2014/136), S/2014/189 (March 15, 2014), http://undocs.org/en/S/2014/189; UN Security Council, Written Record 7138, Letter Dated 28 February 2014 From the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations Addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2014/136), S/PV.7138 (March 15, 2014), http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.7138.
^{^}UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 315, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2017/315, (April 12, 2017), http://undocs.org/en/S/2017/315; UN Security Council, Written Record 7922, The Situation in the Middle East, S/PV.7922 (April 12, 2017), http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.7922; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 884, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2017/884 (October 24, 2017), http://undocs.org/en/S/2017/884; UN Security Council, Written Record 8073, The Situation in the Middle East, S/PV.8073, (October 24, 2017), http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8073; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 962, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2017/962 (November 16, 2017), http://undocs.org/en/S/2017/962; UN Security Council, Written Record 8105, The Situation in the Middle East, S/PV.8105 (November 16, 2017), http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8105; UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 970, The Situation in the Middle East, S/2017/970 (November 17, 2017), http://undocs.org/en/S/2017/970; UN Security Council, Written Record 8107, The Situation in the Middle East, S/PV.8107 (November 17, 2017), http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8107.
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 155, Letter Dated 28 February 2014 From the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations Addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2014/136), S/2022/155 (February 25, 2022), http://undocs.org/en/S/2022/155; UN Security Council, Written Record 8979, Letter Dated 28 February 2014 From the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations Addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/2014/136), S/PV.8979 (February 25, 2022), http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8979.
^{^}UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 255, Non-Proliferation/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, S/2024/255 (March 28, 2024), http://undocs.org/en/S/2024/255; UN Security Council, Written Record 9591, Non-Proliferation/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, S/PV.9591 (March 28, 2024), http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.9591.
^{^}UN Security Council, Draft Resolution 302, Non-Proliferation, S/2024/302 (April 24, 2024), http://undocs.org/en/S/2024/302; UN Security Council, Written Record 9616, Non-Proliferation, S/PV.9616 (April 24, 2024), http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.9616.
^{^}Shi Jiangtao, “China Supports Russia at UN Nord Stream Debate in United Stand Against U.S.-Led West,” South China Morning Post, October 5, 2024, http://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3281221/china-supports-rus…; “Statement by Permanent Representative Vassily Nebenzia at a UNSC Briefing on the Terrorist Attack Against the Nord Stream Gas Pipeline,” Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations,” October 4, 2024, http://russiaun.ru/en/news/nordstream0410; “Remarks by Ambassador Geng Shuang at the UN Security Council Briefing on Nord Stream,” Permanent Mission of the People’s Republic of China to the United Nations, October 4, 2024, http://un.china-mission.gov.cn/eng/hyyfy/202410/t20241005_11502783.htm.
^{^}“UN Security Council Meetings & Outcomes Tables.”
^{^}Dmitriy Nurullayev, “In Global Battle for Hearts and Minds, Russia and China Have Edge Over U.S.,” Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, September 11, 2023, http://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/insights/global-battle-hearts-and-mi….
^{^}Stephen M. Schwebel, “The Effect of Resolutions of the UN General Assembly on Customary International Law,” Proceedings of the Annual Meeting (American Society of International Law) 73, no. 1 (April 26–28, 1979), 301–09, http://jstor.org/stable/25658015.
^{^}UN Digital Library (Subject: HUMAN RIGHTS--IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF) accessed July 31, 2024), http://digitallibrary.un.org/search?ln=en&as=1&cc=Voting%20Data&rm=&sf=…).
^{^}UN General Assembly, Resolution [76/191], Unilateral Economic Measures as a Means of Political and Economic Coercion Against Developing Countries, A/RES/76/191 (December 17, 2021), http://undocs.org/A/RES/76/191; UN General Assembly, Meeting Record [76/PV.54], A/76/PV.54 (December 17, 2021), http://undocs.org/A/76/PV.54.
^{^}Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil, “Russia and China Are Blocking Routine Policy Moves at UNGA,” Politico, September 23, 2024, http://politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2024/09/23/russ…; Michelle Nichols, “U.S. Changes Tack on Haiti Peacekeeping Push Amid China, Russia Opposition,” Reuters, September 29, 2024, http:// reuters.com/world/americas/us-drops-push-haiti-peacekeeping-plan-appease-china-russia-2024-09-29.
^{^}“UN General Assembly Demands Russian Federation Withdraw All Military Forces From the Territory of Ukraine,” European Union External Action, March 2, 2022, http://eeas.europa.eu/eeas/un-general-assembly-demands-russian-federati….
^{^}United Nations, “UN General Assembly Calls for Immediate End to War in Ukraine,” UN News, February 23, 2023, http://news.un.org/en/story/2023/02/1133847.
^{^}Emma Bull, Bone Dance: A Fantasy for Technophiles (New York: Tor Publishing Group, 2009), 32.
^{^}UN Digital Library (Subject: CUBA--UNITED STATES accessed July 31, 2024), http://digitallibrary.un.org/search?ln=en&as=1&cc=Voting%20Data&rm=&sf=…. “General Assembly Votes Overwhelmingly Against US Cuba Embargo,” UN News, November 2, 2023, http://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143112.
^{^}UN General Assembly, Resolution [77/338], Cooperation Between the United Nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, A/RES/77/338 (September 1, 2023), http://undocs.org/A/RES/77/338; UN General Assembly, Meeting Record [77/PV.99], A/77/PV.99 (September 1, 2023), http://undocs.org/A/77/PV.99.
^{^}UN General Assembly, Resolution [78/19], Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space, A/RES/78/19 (December 4, 2023), http://undocs.org/A/RES/78/19; UN General Assembly, Meeting Record [78/PV.42], A/78/PV.42 (December 4, 2023), http://undocs.org/A/78/PV.42; Bradley Bowman and Jared Thompson, “Russia and China Seek to Tie America’s Hands in Space,” Foreign Policy, March 31, 2021, http://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/31/russia-china-space-war-treaty-demil….
^{^}Courtney J. Fung and Shing-hon Lam, “Mixed Report Card: China’s Influence at the United Nations,” Lowy Institute, December 18, 2022, http://lowyinstitute.org/publications/mixed-report-card-china-s-influen…; Yuan Yang and Henry Foy, “‘Under Tremendous Pressure’: The Battle Behind the UN Report on China’s Xinjiang Abuses,” Financial Times, September 13, 2022, http://ft.com/content/0d69e178-8f56-4153-84b2-7ca2d4fa80a4.
^{^}Phelim Kine, “China Launches New Bid for Internet Dominance,” Politico, July 21, 2022, http://politico.com/newsletters/politico-china-watcher/2022/07/21/china…; Ted Piccone, “China’s Long Game on Human Rights at the United Nations,” Brookings Institution, September 2018, http://brookings.edu/articles/chinas-long-game-on-human-rights-at-the-u….
^{^}Matthew Impelli, “China Votes With Russia at U.N. After Kremlin Issues Threat,” Newsweek, April 7, 2022, http://newsweek.com/china-votes-russia-un-humanrights-counicl-1696080; Sam Boone, “CSR 2019: China’s Influence on Interpol—Progress and Pushback,” China Studies Review 5, no. 1 (2019), http://saiscsr.org/2019/10/30/csr-2019-chinas-influence-on-interpol-pro….
^{^}Claude A Lambert, “Small Eagle, Big Dragon: China’s Expanding Role in UN Peacekeeping,” Royal United Services Institute, July 19, 2024, http://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/small-eagl….
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}Jeffrey Feltman, “China’s Expanding Influence at the United Nations,” Brookings Institution, September 2020, http://brookings.edu/articles/chinas-expanding-influence-at-the-united-…; Robbie Gramer and Colum Lynch, “Haley Tried to Block Appointment of Chinese Diplomat to Key UN Post. He Got the Job Anyway,” Foreign Policy, February 14, 2019, http://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/14/united-nations-china-xia-huang-infl….
^{^}Frederic Wehrey and Andrew S. Weiss, “The Right Way for America to Counter Russia in Africa,” Foreign Affairs, July 9, 2024, http://foreignaffairs.com/africa/right-way-america-counter-russia-africa; Paul Stronski, “Russia’s Growing Footprint in Africa’s Sahel Region,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, http:// carnegieendowment.org/research/2023/02/russias-growing-footprint-in-africas-sahel-region?lang=en.
^{^}Mariel Ferragamo, “Russia’s Growing Footprint in Africa,” Backgrounder, Council on Foreign Relations, December 28, 2023, http://cfr.org/backgrounder/russias-growing-footprint-africa; Faroukou Mintoiba, “Footsteps of Change: Rising Influence of China and Russia in Africa,” Daily Sabah, October 3, 2024, http://dailysabah.com/opinion/op-ed/footsteps-of-change-rising-influenc….
^{^}Ministry of External Relations of Brazil, “The 6th BRICS Summit: Fortaleza Declaration,” University of Toronto, July 15, 2014, http://brics.utoronto.ca/docs/140715-leaders.html.
^{^}“Jinzhuan guojia lingdaoren di shisi ci huiwu beijing xuanyan,” XIV BRICS Summit Beijing Declaration, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, June 23, 2022, http://mfa.gov.cn/web/ziliao_674904/1179_674909/202206/t20220623_107090….
^{^}“Joint Statement of the BRICS Ministers of Foreign Affairs/International Relations, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation, 10 June 2024,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, June 10, 2024, http://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1955719.
^{^}Maia Nikoladze and Mrugank Bhusari, “Russia and China Have Been Teaming Up to Reduce Reliance on the Dollar. Here’s How It’s Going,” New Atlanticist, Atlantic Council, February 22, 2023, http://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-and-china-have-….
^{^}“Dispatches: How the BRICS Can Run a Rights-Respecting Development Bank,” Dispatches, Human Rights Watch, July 16, 2014, http://hrw.org/news/2014/07/16/dispatches-how-brics-can-run-rights-resp….
^{^}“XV BRICS Summit Johannesburg II Declaration,” BRICS, August 23, 2023, http://brics2023.gov.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Jhb-II-Declaration-2….
^{^}Daniel Azevedo et al., “An Evolving BRICS and the Shifting World Order,” Boston Consulting Group, April 29, 2024, http://bcg.com/publications/2024/brics-enlargement-and-shifting-world-o…; “Russia Calls on BRICS Partners to Create Alternative to IMF,” Reuters, October 10, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/russia-calls-brics-partners-create-alternative….
^{^}Victoria Bela, “Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Urges Brics to Lead ‘Urgent’ International Finance Reform,” South China Morning Post, October 23, 2024, https// scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3283579/chinese-leader-xi-jinping-urges-brics-lead-urgent-international-finance-reform.
^{^}“Joint Statement of the BRICS Ministers of Foreign Affairs/International Relations, Nizhny Novgorod, Russian Federation, 10 June 2024,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, June 10, 2024, http://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1955719.
^{^}Ruxandra Iordache, “Emerging Economies Group BRICS Invites 6 New Members, Including Saudi Arabia and Iran,” CNBC, August 24, 2023, http://cnbc.com/2023/08/24/emerging-markets-group-brics-invites-6-new-m….
^{^}Anait Miridzhanian, “South Africa Says Five Countries Confirm They Are Joining BRICS,” Reuters, January 31, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/south-africa-says-five-countries-confirm-they-…; Maha El Dahan, “Saudi Arabia Has Not Yet Joined BRICS–Saudi Official Source,” Reuters, February 1, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/saudi-arabia-has-not-yet-joined-brics-saudi-of….
^{^}Philip Heijmans, “Xi, Putin Score Wins as More Asia Leaders Aim to Join BRICS,” Bloomberg, June 21, 2024, http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-21/more-asian-nations-want-t…; Gabriel Gavin, “Azerbaijan Launches Bid to Join BRICS After Putin Visit,” Politico, August 20, 2024, http://politico.eu/article/azerbaijan-brics-summit-europe-south-caucasu…; Selcan Hacaoglu and Firat Kozok, “Turkey Bids to Join BRICS in Push to Build Alliances Beyond West,” Bloomberg, September 2, 2024, http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-02/turkey-submits-bid-to-joi…; Ketrin Jochecova, “Cuba to Putin: Let Us Join BRICS club,” Politico, October 8, 2024, http://politico.eu/article/cuba-request-join-brics-partner-country-vlad….
^{^}“Putin Hosts Global South Leaders at BRICS Summit Meant to Counterbalance Western Clout,” Associated Press, October 22, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/russia-brics-summit-china-india-ukraine-war-3….
^{^}Jie Gao, “Xi Announces BRICS Initiatives,” China 5, Asia Society, October 25, 2024.
^{^}Zongyuan Zoe Liu and Nadia Clark, “Why Expanded BRICS Is Backing a Russia-Initiated Grain Exchange,” Council on Foreign Relations, October 21, 2024, http://cfr.org/blog/why-expanded-brics-backing-russia-initiated-grain-e….
^{^}Syed Nasir Hassan, “The SCO Needs to Be More Than a China-Russia Front Against the West,” The Diplomat, August 6, 2024, http//thediplomat.com/2024/08/the-sco-needs-to-be-more-than-a-china-russia-front-against-the-west.
^{^}“Joint Communiqué Following the 21st Meeting of the SCO Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) Council,” Shanghai Cooperation Organization, November 22, 2022, http://eng.sectsco.org/documents.
^{^}Ibid; “Joint Communique Following the 22nd Meeting of the Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) Council of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation,” Shanghai Cooperation Organization, October 2023, 2, http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/?year=2023; “The Moscow Declaration of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation,” Shanghai Cooperation Organization, November 2020, 9, http://eng.sectsco.org/documents/?year=2020; “Press Release on Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s Meeting with SCO Secretary-General Zhang Ming and Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Eurasian Affairs Li Hui,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, March 18, 2024, http://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1939631.
^{^}Krishn Kaushik and YP Rajesh, “SCO Says Not Against Any Country as It Expands Reach, Welcomes Iran,” Reuters, July 4, 2023, http://reuters.com/world/india/putin-xi-attend-virtual-sco-summit-hoste….
^{^}“SCO Heads of State Council Meeting,” President of Russia (transcript, Astana, July 4, 2024), http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74464; “China and Russia Highlight ‘Tectonic Shifts in Global Politics,’” Al Jazeera, July 4, 2024, http://aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/4/china-and-russia-highlight-tectonic-….
^{^}“SCO Heads of State Council Meeting,” President of Russia (transcript, Astana, July 4, 2024), http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74464; “Meeting in the SCO Plus Format,” President of Russia (transcript, Astana, July 4, 2024), http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74467.
^{^}Nectar Gan, “China’s Xi Urges Regional Leaders to Resist ‘External Interference’ as Security Bloc Grows to Counter US,” CNN, July 4, 2024, http://cnn.com/2024/07/04/asia/putin-xi-russia-china-alignment-sco-asta….
^{^}“People’s Republic of China Efforts to Amplify the Kremlin’s Voice on Ukraine,” U.S. Department of State, May 2, 2022, http://state.gov/disarming-disinformation/prc-efforts-to-amplify-the-kr….
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}“Guanyu zhengzhi jiejue wukelan weiji de zhongguo lichang,” China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Crisis, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, February 24, 2023, http://fmprc.gov.cn/zyxw/202302/t20230224_11030707.shtml.
^{^}Shi Jiangtao, “Russia’s Lavrov, Who Will Visit China Soon, Calls Beijing’s Peace Plan for Ukraine ‘Reasonable,’” South China Morning Post, April 5, 2024, http://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3258007/russias-lavrov-who….
^{^} “Russia’s Lavrov Says Chinese Peace Plan on Ukraine Is Most Reasonable So Far,” Reuters, April 4, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-says-chinese-peace-plan-….
^{^}Guardian Staff, “Ukraine War Briefing: China and Brazil Push Peace Plan at UN Despite Zelenskyy Opposition,” The Guardian, September 27, 2024, http://theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/28/ukraine-war-briefing-china-and…; Mark Magnier and Igor Patrick, “China, Brazil Hold Ukraine Peace Plan Meeting at UN, Aim to Be ‘Partners’ to Moscow, Kyiv,” South China Morning Post, September 28, 2024, http://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3280333/china-and-brazil-h….
^{^}Jianli Yang, “Explaining China’s Diplomatic Strategy on Ukraine,” The Diplomat, March 21, 2023, http://thediplomat.com/2023/03/explaining-chinas-diplomatic-strategy-on….
^{^}David Rising and Ken Moritsugu, “Zelenskyy Accuses China of Pressuring Other Countries Not to Attend Upcoming Ukraine Peace Talks,” Associated Press, June 2, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/ukraine-singapore-shangrila-russia-defense-94….
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}Orange Wang and Kawala Xie, “China and Hungary Hail ‘All-Weather’ Partnership as Xi Jinping Gets Red Carpet Treatment in Budapest,” South China Morning Post, May 9, 2024, http://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3262059/hungary-rolls-out-…; “China, Hungary Elevate Ties to All-Weather Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,” Xinhua, May 10, 2024, http://english.news.cn/20240510/9f429989e13c46829936b5a36c97e43c/c.html.
^{^}Justin Spike and Vladimir Isachenkov, “Hungary’s Orbán Meets Putin for Talks in Moscow in a Rare Visit by a European Leader,” Associated Press, July 5, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/hungary-russia-orban-putin-visit-ukraine-4755….
^{^}Ryan McMorrow, “Viktor Orbán Hails China as ‘Key Power’ for Promoting Peace in Ukraine on Beijing Visit,” Financial Times, July 8, 2024, http://ft.com/content/0de0871c-15a1-419d-8a94-744d999d3fca; “Press Statements Following Talks With Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán,” President of Russia, July 5, 2024, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74475; “Xi jinping huijian xiongyali zongli ouerban,” Xi Jinping Meets With Hungary’s Prime Minister Orbán, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 8, 2024, http://mfa.gov.cn/web/zyxw/202407/t20240708_11449761.shtml.
^{^}RFA Staff, “China Welcomes ‘Positive’ Remarks as Putin Speaks on South China Sea,” Radio Free Asia, October 15, 2021, http://rfa.org/english/news/china/remarks-10152021130204.html.
^{^}HT Correspondent, “West Using AUKUS, Quad Against Russia, Says Sergey Lavrov,” Hindustan Times, March 4, 2023, http://hindustantimes.com/india-news/west-using-aukus-quad-against-russ….
^{^}“Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on Deepening Comprehensive Partnership and Strategic Interaction Relations Entering a New Era,” President of Russia, March 21, 2023, http://kremlin.ru/supplement/5920; David Batashvili, “Why Russia Will Keep Supporting China in the Indo-Pacific,” The Diplomat, March 16, 2024, http://thediplomat.com/2024/03/why-russia-will-keep-supporting-china-in….
^{^}Aadil Brar, “Taiwan Slams Russia’s Putin for Backing China’s Territorial Claim,” Newsweek, March 19, 2024, http://newsweek.com/putin-taiwan-slams-china-territorial-claim-ukraine-….
^{^}Micah McCartney, “Russia and China Warn NATO to Stay Out of Asia,” Newsweek, April 10, 2024, http://newsweek.com/russia-china-warn-nato-stay-out-asia-1888741; “Lavrov, Wang Sit Down in Beijing to Talk Eurasian Security, ‘Dual Opposition’ to West,” TASS, April 9, 2024, http://tass.com/politics/1772529.
^{^}“Russia’s Lavrov Says Stands Alongside China on Taiwan, Other Issues,” Reuters, October 2, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/russias-lavrov-says-stands-alongside-china-tai….
^{^}David Brunnstrom, “U.S. Official Accuses Russia and China of Blocking Asia Leaders’ Statement,” Reuters, October 12, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/us-official-accuses-russia-china-blocking-asia….
^{^}Tom O’Connor, “Exclusive: Russia’s Lavrov Warns of ‘Dangerous Consequences’ for U.S. in Ukraine,” Newsweek, October 7, 2024, http://newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-lavrov-warns-dangerous-consequenc….
^{^}DD Wu, “China and Russia Sign Military Collaboration Roadmap,” The Diplomat, June 30, 2017, http://thediplomat.com/2017/06/china-and-russia-sign-military-cooperati….
^{^}Dmitry Gorenburg, Paul Schwartz, Brian Waidelich, and Elizabeth Wishnick, Russian-Chinese Military Cooperation: An Increasingly Unequal Partnership (Arlington: Center for Naval Analyses, 2023), 11–12, http://cna.org/reports/2023/05/Russian-Chinese-Military-Cooperation.pdf; “China, Russia Approve 2021–25 Road Map to Increase Military Co-Operation,” Janes, November 24, 2021, http://janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/security/china-russia-appr….
^{^}“China-Russia Joint Military Exercises,” China Power, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2022, http://chinapower.csis.org/data/china-russia-joint-military-exercises.
^{^}“China-Russia Joint Military Exercises,” China Power, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2022, http://chinapower.csis.org/data/china-russia-joint-military-exercises; Gorenburg et al., Russian-Chinese Military Cooperation: An Increasingly Unequal Partnership, 76–79; Wang Linlei and Qian Xiaohu, “Chinese Military to Host and Compete in International Army Games 2022,” Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China, August 13, 2022, http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/4918107.html; Emily Ferris and Veerle Nouwens,“Russia’s Vostok 2022 Military Drills: Not Size or Tanks, but Context,” Royal United Services Institute, September 15, 2022, http://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russias-vo…; “U.S. Patrol Spots Chinese, Russian Naval Ships off Alaskan Island,” Al Jazeera, September 27, 2022, http://aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/27/us-patrol-spots-chinese-russian-nav…; U.S. Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2023, 180, http://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-A…; Li Weichao, “China-Russia Joint Naval Exercise Kicks Off,” Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China, December 21, 2022, http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/4928825.html; “S.Africa’s Navy Stages Controversial Exercises with China, Russia,” Agence France-Presse, February 17, 2023, http://france24.com/en/live-news/20230217-s-africa-s-navy-stages-contro…; “China, Russia, Iran Conduct Four-Day Naval Exercises in Gulf of Oman,” Reuters, March 15, 2023, http://reuters.com/world/china-russia-iran-conduct-four-day-naval-exerc…–15; Dzirhan Mahadzir, “Joint Russia-China Military Flights Prompt Japanese, South Korean Fighter Scrambles,” U.S. Naval Institute News, December 14, 2023, http://news.usni.org/2023/12/14/joint-russia-china-military-flights-pro…; Qian Xiaohu and Ren Xu, “China-Russia Northern/Interaction-2023 Exercise Concludes,” Ministry of National Defense of the People’s Republic of China, July 24, 2023, http://eng.mod.gov.cn/xb/News_213114/TopStories/16239326.html.
^{^}Richard Weitz, Assessing Chinese-Russian Military Exercises: Past Progress and Future Trends (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2021), http://csis.org/analysis/assessing-chinese-russian-military-exercises-p…; Gorenburg et al., Russian-Chinese Military Cooperation: An Increasingly Unequal Partnership, 49-51; “Peace Mission 2021: CSO Countries Involved in Joint Drills,” Warsaw Institute, September 20, 2021, http://warsawinstitute.org/peace-mission-2021-cso-countries-involved-jo….
^{^}Mark Cozad et al., Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation: Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences (Santa Monica: RAND, 2024), 86, http://rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2061-5.html.
^{^}North Atlantic Treaty Organization, “Washington Summit Declaration,” July 10, 2024, http://nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm; Katherine Michaelson, “China Signals Defiance to NATO With Military Drills in Belarus,” Voice of America News, July 12, 2024, http://voanews.com/a/china-signals-defiance-to-nato-with-military-drill…; Yuras Karmanau, “Belarus and China Join Forces in a Military Drill Near the Polish Border,” Associated Press, July 9, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/belarus-china-military-drill-poland-8558b0e41….
^{^}Cozad et al., Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation: Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences, 87-8; Sam Lagrone, “China, Russia Kick Off Joint South China Sea Naval Exercise; Includes ‘Island Seizing’ Drill,” U.S. Naval Institute News, September 12, 2016, http://news.usni.org/2016/09/12/china-russia-start-joint-south-china-se….
^{^}Franz-Stefan Gady, “China, Russia Conduct First Ever Joint Strategic Bomber Patrol Flights in Indo-Pacific Region,” The Diplomat, July 23, 2019, http://thediplomat.com/2019/07/china-russia-conduct-first-ever-joint-st….
^{^}Takahashi Kosuke, “China, Russia Fly 6 Bombers Near Japan Amid Quad Summit,” May 25, 2022, http://thediplomat.com/2022/05/china-russia-fly-6-bombers-near-japan-am…; U.S. Department of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, 2023, 180, http://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-A….
^{^}Mark A. Green, “China and Russia: Quietly Going Steady?” Stubborn Things, Wilson Center, October 29, 2024, http://wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/china-and-russia-quietly-going-steady; Takahashi Kosuke, “China, Russia Fly 6 Bombers Near Japan Amid Quad Summit,” The Diplomat, May 25, 2022, http://thediplomat.com/2022/05/china-russia-fly-6-bombers-near-japan-am…; Michael Lee, “China, Russia Planes Penetrate Kadiz, Seoul Scrambles Jets,” Korea JoongAng Daily, May 25, 2022, http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/05/25/national/defense/Kadiz-K….
^{^}Jacob Stokes, Evan Wright, and Nathaniel Schochet, The China-Russia Entente in East Asia: Contending With Authoritarian Partnership in a Critical Region (Washington, DC: Center for a New American Security, 2024), 7, http://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/documents/Russia-and-C….
^{^}Dzirhan Mahadzir, “Chinese Warships, Russian Intelligence Ships Sailing Near Japanese Waters,” U.S. Naval Institute News, April 2, 2024, http://news.usni.org/2024/04/02/chinese-warships-russian-intelligence-s…; Dzirhan Mahadzir, “Russia, China and Iran Finish Drills in Gulf of Oman,” U.S. Naval Institute News, March 14, 2024, http://news.usni.org/2024/03/14/russia-china-and-iran-finish-drills-in-….
^{^}Jim Gomez and Haruka Nuga, “Japan and the Philippines Sign a Defense Pact in the Face of Shared Alarm Over China,” Associated Press, July 8, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/japan-philippines-reciprocal-access-agreement…; Yukio Tajima, “China and Russia Extend Military Cooperation to South China Sea,” Nikkei, July 17, 2024, http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/South-China-Sea…; Cyril Ip, “China and Russia Hold Drills as Japan and Nato Raise Alarm Over Ukraine,” South China Morning Post, July 13, 2024, http://scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3270343/china-and-russia-ho…; “China, Russia Start Joint Naval Drills, Days After NATO Allies Called Beijing a Ukraine War Enabler,” Associated Press, July 15, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/china-russia-joint-naval-drills-nato-ukraine-….
^{^}“Ocean 2024 Strategic Command-and-Staff Exercise,” President of Russia, September 10, 2024, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75083; Tomasz Grotnik, “Ocean-2024—Russian Navy Flexes Its Muscles, China Assists,” Naval News, September 13, 2024, http://navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/09/ocean-2024-russian-navy-flexes-…; Vladmir Soldatkin and Dmitry Antonov, “Putin Casts Naval Exercise With China as Bid to Counter U.S. in the Pacific,” Reuters, September 10, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/russia-teams-up-with-china-start-big-naval-dri….
^{^}“China Announces Joint Naval, Air Drills With Russia,” Associated Press, September 9, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/china-russia-drills-military-pacific-72ece848…; Liu Xuanzun and Wang Qi, “China, Russia Concluded Joint Military Training, Launching Maritime Patrol,” Global Times, September 28, 2024, http://globaltimes.cn/page/202409/1320500.shtml; Li Jiayao, “Russia to Participate in China’s Northern/Interaction-2024 Exercise,” China Military Online, September 9, 2024, http://eng.chinamil.com.cn/CHINA_209163/Exercises/News_209184/16337213….
^{^}Kathrin Hille and Max Seddon, “Russia and China Fly Joint Air Patrols Near U.S. for First Time,” Financial Times, July 25, 2024, http://ft.com/content/b2ef8e97-55b1-474b-acbf-a44f55892a1e; Paul Sonne, “Russia and China Carry Out First Joint Bomber Patrol Near Alaska,” New York Times, July 25, 2024, http://nytimes.com/2024/07/25/world/asia/russia-and-china-carry-out-fir….
^{^}Paul McLeary, “U.S. Sees New Chinese, Russian Military Cooperation on Eve of Visit to Region,” Politico, July 25, 2024, http://politico.eu/article/us-chinese-russia-defense-military-cooperati…; David Pierson, “WhyChina’s and Russia’s Militaries Are Training Together,” New York Times, August 13, 2024, http://nytimes.com/2024/08/13/world/asia/china-russia-military-patrols….
^{^}“Russia, China Bolster Defence Ties at ‘Substantive’ Talks,” Reuters, October 15, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/russia-china-bolster-defence-ties-substantive-….
^{^}China Coast Guard, “China Coast Guard, Russian Federal Security Service Sign MoU,” May 16, 2024, http://ccg.gov.cn/mhenu/lbt/202405/t20240516_2230.html.
^{^}Liselotte Odgaard, “Russia and China’s Cooperation in the Arctic Is a Rising Nuclear Threat,” Politico, October 3, 2024, http://politico.eu/article/russia-china-arctic-cooperation-military-nuc….
^{^}Georgi Kantchev, “Russia and China Defy the West Deep in the Arctic,” Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2024, http://wsj.com/world/svalbard-russia-china-arctic-trade-e6187bd8?mod=dj….
^{^}Kawala Xie, “China, Russia Plot Course for Arctic Cooperation, Shipping Routes to Counter West,” South China Morning Post, August 22, 2024, http://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3275490/china-russia-plot-…; “China, Russia to Expand Bilateral Economic, Trade Cooperation,” The State Council of the People’s Republic of China, August 22, 2024,http://english.gov.cn/news/202408/22/content_WS66c6338cc6d0868f4e8ea23c….
^{^}Sylvie Zhuang, “China and Russia Team Up on Arctic Coastguard Mission, With New Shipping Routes on Horizon,” South China Morning Post, September 30, 2024, http://scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3280601/china-and-russia-t…; Ashish Dangwal, “Russia ‘Jumps Into’ Northern Pacific With China; Both Allies Conduct 1st Joint Coast Guard Patrols in Region,” Eurasian Times, October 12, 2024, http://eurasiantimes.com/russia-jumps-into-northern-pacific; Ryan Chan, “China’s Icebreakers Challenge US Staying Power on Arctic Frontier,” Newsweek, August 29, 2024, http://newsweek.com/china-news-icebreakers-challenge-us-staying-power-a….
^{^}Meia Nouwens and Veerle Nouwens, “China-Russia Coast Guard Cooperation: A New Dimension of China-Russia Relations?” China Power, Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 16, 2024, http://chinapower.csis.org/analysis/china-russia-coast-guard-cooperation.
^{^}U.S. Department of Defense, 2024 Arctic Strategy, 3.
^{^}Antonio Graceffo, “China and Russia Arctic Policy Convergence? Shifting Geopolitics in the North,” Geopolitical Monitor, October 14, 2024, http://geopoliticalmonitor.com/china-and-russia-arctic-policy-convergen….
^{^}“Chinese and Russian Coast Guard Ships Sail Through the Bering Sea Together, U.S. Says,” Associated Press, October 1, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/us-china-russia-coast-guard-356dfbf91a4861798…; Liu Zhen, “China and Russia State Joint Anti-Submarine Exercise in Pacific,” South China Morning Post, October 9, 2024, http://scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3281603/china-and-russia-st… module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article;Simone McCarthy, “China’s Coast Guard Claims to Have Entered the Arctic Ocean for the First Time as It Ramps Up Security Ties With Russia,” CNN, October 3, 2024, http://cnn.com/2024/10/03/china/china-russia-coast-guard-arctic-ocean-i….
^{^}Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Nicholas Lokker, “Russia-China Defense Cooperation,” Center for a New American Security, April 27, 2023, http://cnas.org/publications/reports/russia-china-relations.
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}Andrew Radin, et al., China-Russia Cooperation: Determining Factors, Future Trajectories, Implications for the United States (Santa Monica: RAND, 2021), 68, http://rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3067.html.
^{^}Green, “China and Russia: Quietly Going Steady?”; China Power Team, “How Deep Are China-Russia Military Ties?”; Pieter Wezeman, Katarina Djokic, Mathew George, Zain Hussain, and Siemon Wezeman, “Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2023,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, March 2024, 6, http://sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf.
^{^}China Power Team, “How Deep Are China-Russia Military Ties?”; Kendall-Taylor and Lokker, “Russia-China Defense Cooperation”; Hal Brands, “It’s Looking a Lot Like World War II Out There,” Bloomberg, March 17, 2024, http://bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2024-03-17/it-s-looking-like-worl…; “A New ‘Quartet of Chaos’ Threatens America,” The Economist, September 22, 2024, http://economist.com/international/2024/09/22/a-new-quartet-of-chaos-th….
^{^}Paul Schwartz, The Changing Nature and Implications of Russian Military Transfers to China (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2021), 2, http://csis.org/analysis/changing-nature-and-implications-russian-milit….
^{^}Ibid., 5.
^{^}“China’s Ties with Russia Are Growing More Solid,” The Economist, April 25, 2024, http://economist.com/china/2024/04/25/chinas-ties-with-russia-are-growi…; Kevin Pollpeter, Elizabeth Barrett, Jeffrey Edmonds, Amanda Kerrigan, and Andrew Taffer, China-Russia Space Cooperation: The Strategic, Military, Diplomatic, and Economic Implications of a Growing Relationship (Montgomery: China Aerospace Studies Institute, 2023), 35, http://airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/Display/Article/3373101/china-russia-s….
^{^}Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine, “The Axis of Upheaval: How America’s Adversaries Are Uniting to Overturn the Global Order,” Foreign Affairs, April 23, 2024, http://foreignaffairs.com/china/axis-upheaval-russia-iran-north-korea-t…; Mark Cozad et al., Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation: Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences.
^{^}Mark Cozad et al., Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation: Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences, 85.
^{^}Arran Hope, “PRC Advances New International Order in Astana,” China Brief, Jamestown Foundation, July 12, 2024, http://jamestown.org/program/prc-advances-new-international-order-in-as….
^{^}Ying Yu Lin, “What Is Russia Teaching China in Military Drills?” The Diplomat, August 9, 2023, http://thediplomat.com/2023/08/what-is-russia-teaching-china-in-militar…; Eduardo Baptista, “Insight: Studying Ukraine War, China’s Military Minds Fret Over US Missiles, Starlink,” Reuters, March 7, 2023, http://reuters.com/world/studying-ukraine-war-chinas-military-minds-fre…; Lyle Goldstein and Nathan Waechter, “Can Studying Combat in the Black Sea Improve the Chinese Navy?,” RAND, April 15, 2024, http://rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/04/can-studying-combat-in-the-blac….
^{^}North Atlantic Treaty Organization, “Washington Summit Declaration”; Michael Gordon, Warren Strobel, and Alan Cullison, “China Has Helped Russia Boost Arms Production, U.S. Says,” Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2024, http://wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-russia-arms-production-….
^{^}White House, “Readout of President Joe Biden’s Call With President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China,” April 2, 2024, http://whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/04/02/read….
^{^}Tommaso Lecca, “‘Significant Consequences’ If Chinese Firms Help Russia’s War in Ukraine, U.S.’s Yellen Warns,” Politico, April 6, 2024, http://politico.eu/article/janet-yellen-us-china-antony-blinken-nato-uk….
^{^}Aila Slisco, “China Hits Back at U.S. ‘Pressuring’ Over Ties with Russia,” Newsweek, April 10, 2024, http://newsweek.com/china-hits-back-us-pressuring-over-ties-russia-1889…; Bill Bishop, “Xi in Chongqing; MoFA on Blinken Visit; Financial Sanctions Over Support for Russia? QE Talk Again; Another Alleged PRC Spy in Germany,” Sinocism, April 24, 2024, http://sinocism.com/p/xi-in-chongqing-mofa-on-blinken-visit.
^{^}“2024 nian 4 yue 23 ri waijiaobu fayanren wang wenbin zhuchi lixing jizhehui” [Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin Hosts Routine Press Conference on April 23, 2024], Ministry of Foreign Affairs, July 8, 2024, http://fmprc.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/jzhsl_673025/202404/t20240423_1128….
^{^}“Lavrov Says Stands Alongside China,” Reuters.
^{^}North Atlantic Treaty Organization, “Washington Summit Declaration.”
^{^}Nikkei Staff Writers, “Special Report: How U.S.-Made Chips Are Flowing Into Russia,” Nikkei, April 12, 2023, http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Special-report-How-…; Aamer Madhani, “U.S. Intelligence Finding Shows China Surging Equipment Sales to Russia to Help War Effort in Ukraine,” Associated Press, April 19, 2024, http://apnews.com/article/united-states-china-russia-ukraine-war-265df8….
^{^}Demetri Sevastopulo, Guy Chazan, and Sam Jones, “U.S. Says China Is Supplying Missile and Drone Engines to Russia,” Financial Times, April 12, 2024, http://ft.com/content/ecd934b6-8a91-4b78-a360-9111f771f9b1; Michael Gordon, Warren Strobel, and Alan Cullison, “China Has Helped Russia Boost Arms Production, U.S. Says,” Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2024, http://wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-russia-arms-production-….
^{^} Aaron Krolik and Paul Mozur, “The Illicit Flow of Technology to Russia Goes Through This Hong Kong Address,” New York Times, July 25, 2024, http://nytimes.com/2024/07/25/technology/russia-sanctions-chips.html.
^{^}“Who Is Supplying Russia’s Arms Industry?” The Economist, April 29, 2024, http://economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/04/29/who-is-supplying-russias….
^{^}Austin Ramzy and Jason Douglas, “Booming Trade With China Helps Boost Russia’s War Effort,” Wall Street Journal, August 21, 2023, http://wsj.com/world/china/booming-china-russia-trade-sends-trench-digg…; Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Support Provided by the People’s Republic of China to Russia, July 2023, 8, http://democrats-intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/odni_report_on_ch…; Markus Garlauskas, Joseph Webster, and Emma Verges, “China’s Support for Russia Has Been Hindering Ukraine’s Counteroffensive,” New Atlanticist, Atlantic Council, November 15, 2023, http://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/chinas-supportfor-russ…; Alberto Nardelli and Jennifer Jacobs, “China Providing Geospatial Intelligence to Russia, U.S. Warns,” Bloomberg, April 6, 2024, http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-06/china-is-providing-geospa…; Patrick Reevell, “Zelenskyy Says Russia Using Chinese Satellites to Photograph Nuclear Plants Ahead of Possible Strikes,” ABC News, September 24, 2024, http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/zelenskyy-russia-chinese-satellites-phot….
^{^}U.S. Mission China, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken at a Press Availability,” New York, United States: Palace Hotel New York, September 27, 2024. http://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-pre…; “Blinken Questions China Peace Push Over Russia Help,” Korea Times, September 29, 2024, http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2024/09/501_383297.html.
^{^}Kurt Campbell, “AUKUS: Securing the Indo-Pacific, a Conversation With Kurt Campbell,” (transcript with Richard Fontaine, Washington, DC, April 3, 2024), Center for a New American Security, http://cnas.org/publications/transcript/aukus-securing-the-indo-pacific….
^{^}Niall Ferguson, “The Second Cold War Is Escalating Faster Than the First,” Bloomberg, April 21, 2024, http://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-21/china-russia-iran-axis…; Daphne Psaledakis, “U.S. Issues Hundreds of Sanctions Targeting Russia, Takes Aim at Chinese Companies,” Reuters, May 1, 2024, http://reuters.com/world/us-issues-hundreds-sanctions-targeting-russia-….
^{^}China Power Team, “What Are the Key Strengths of the China-Russia Relationship?” China Power, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 5, 2022, http://chinapower.csis.org/china-russia-relationship-strengths-benefit; “China-Russia 2023 Trade Value Hits Record High of $240 Bln—Chinese Customs,” Reuters, January 12, 2024, http://reuters.com/markets/china-russia-2023-trade-value-hits-record-hi….
^{^}Noah Berman, “Two Years of War in Ukraine: Are Sanctions Against Russia Making a Difference?,” Council on Foreign Relations, February 23, 2024, http://cfr.org/in-brief/two-years-war-ukraine-are-sanctions-against-rus….
^{^}“Russian Economy Shrank by 1.2% in 2022, Less Than Previously Thought—Stats Service,” Reuters, December 29, 2023, http://reuters.com/markets/europe/russian-economy-shrank-by-12-2022-les….
^{^}Karen Gilchrist, “How Surging Trade With China Is Boosting Russia’s War,” CNBC, September 28, 2023, http://cnbc.com/2023/09/28/how-surging-trade-with-china-is-boosting-rus…; “China’s 2022 Trade With Russia Hit Record $190 Bln—Customs,” Reuters, January 13, 2023, http://reuters.com/world/china-customs-says-trade-with-russia-hit-new-h…; “China-Russia 2023 Trade Value Hits Record High of $240 Bln—Chinese Customs,” Reuters, January 12, 2024, http://reuters.com/markets/china-russia-2023-trade-value-hits-record-hi…; “China-Russia Trade Has Surged as Countries Grow Closer,” Reuters, March 1, 2022, http://reuters.com/markets/europe/china-russia-trade-has-surged-countri…; Agence France-Presse, “China, Russia Trade Soared in 2023 as Commerce With U.S. Sank,” Voice of America News, January 12, 2024, http://voanews.com/a/china-russia-trade-soared-in-2023-as-commerce-with…; Callum Fraser, “Russia and China: The True Nature of Their Cooperation,” Royal United Services Institute, June 7, 2024, http://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russia-and…; Heli Simola, The Shift in Russian Trade During a Year of War (Helsinki: Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies, April 26, 2023), http://publications.bof.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/52738/bpb0923r.pdf; Joe Leahy, Kai Waluszewski, and Max Seddon, “China-Russia: An Economic ‘Friendship’ That Could Rattle the World,” Financial Times, May 15, 2024, http://ft.com/content/19eb54ba-f6f7-48ba-a586-b8a113396955.
^{^}Vita Spivak, “How Sanctions Have Changed the Face of Chinese Companies in Russia,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 18, 2023, http://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/05/how-sancti…; Michelle Toh, “Chinese Brands Have Replaced iPhones and Hyundai in Russia’s War Economy,” CNN, February 25, 2023, http://cnn.com/2023/02/25/business/russia-chinese-brands-sales-surge-uk…; Niels Graham, “Chinese Exports Have Replaced the EU as the Lifeline of Russia’s Economy,” Econographics, Atlantic Council, February 22, 2024, http://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/chinese-exports-have-rep…; “Russia Replaces Disappearing Western Gadgets With Chinese Brands,” Moscow Times, July 4, 2022, http://themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/04/russia-replaces-disappearing-weste…; Dani Cole,“Chinese Brands Ranked Top in New Market Sales in Russia in 2023,” JustAuto, February 16, 2024, http://just-auto.com/news/chinese-brands-ranked-top-in-new-market-sales….
^{^}Joseph Webster, “Indirect China-Russia Trade Is Bolstering Moscow’s Invasion of Ukraine,” New Atlanticist, Atlantic Council, June 18, 2024, http://atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/indirect-china-russia-…; Alexandra Prokopenko, “What Are the Limits to Russia’s ‘Yuanization’?” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 27, 2024, http://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/05/china-russ….
^{^}Rob Garver, “Russia’s Economy Grew in 2023, Despite War and Sanctions,” Voice of America News, February 8, 2024, http://voanews.com/a/russia-economy-grew-in-2023-despite-war-and-sancti….
^{^}Graham, “Chinese Exports Have Replaced the EU as the Lifeline of Russia’s Economy.”
^{^}“Xi Backs Putin as Pressure Builds on China to End War in Ukraine,” Bloomberg, July 3, 2024, http://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-03/putin-meets-xi-for-second….
^{^}Prokopenko, “What Are the Limits to Russia’s ‘Yuanization’?;” “National Payment Systems Are Proliferating,” The Economist, May 3, 2024, http://economist.com/special-report/2024/05/03/national-payment-systems….
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}Prokopenko, “The Risks of Russia’s Growing Dependence on the Yuan,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, February 2, 2023, http://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88926.
^{^}Margarita Mordovina, “ Yuan and Ruble Account for Half of Russia’s Export Payments for the First Time,” RBC, March 9, 2023, http://rbc.ru/finances/09/03/2023/6409deb29a7947280bbc1758; Jorgelina Do Rosario, “Russia Ramps Up China Yuan Payments for Imports Amid Sanctions, Study Finds,” Reuters, September 27, 2023, http://reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ramps-up-china-yuan-payments-imp…; “Yuan Payments for Russian Exports Jump to One-Third of Total—C.Bank Chief,” Yahoo Finance, January 29, 2024, http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yuan-payments-russian-exports-jump-033710….
^{^}Stokes, Wright, and Schochet, The China-Russia Entente in East Asia, 3; “Share of Ruble, Yuan in Commercial Transactions Between Russia, China Exceeds 90%— Putin,” TASS, May 16, 2024, http://tass.com/economy/1788871.
^{^}“China Eases Control to Let Ruble Fall Faster Against Yuan,” Associated Press, March 10, 2022, http://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-business-europe-moscow-9….
^{^}“Exclusive: Russia Payment Hurdles With China Partners Intensified in August,” Reuters, August 30, 2024, http://reuters.com/business/finance/russia-payment-hurdles-with-china-p…; Brendan Cole,“Chinese State Banks Off-Load Russia Assets in Blow to Putin: Report,” Newsweek, September 7, 2024, http://newsweek.com/russia-china-yuan-ruble-banks-1950254.
^{^}Vasily Kashin,“Current Events Guarantee China’s Victory,” interview by Irina Tumakova, Novaya Gazeta, March 3, 2022, http://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2022/03/03/nyneshnie-sobytiia-garantiru….
^{^}Jeremy Greenwood and Shuxian Luo, “Could the Arctic Be a Wedge Between Russia and China?,” War on the Rocks, April 4, 2022, http://warontherocks.com/2022/04/could-the-arctic-be-a-wedge-between-ru….
^{^}“Russia-China Negotiations,” President of Russia, March 21, 2023, http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70748.
^{^}Erdem Lamazhapov, Iselin Stensdal, and Gørild Heggelund, “China’s Polar Silk Road: Long Game or Failed Strategy?” Arctic Institute, November 14, 2023, http://thearcticinstitute.org/china-polar-silk-road-long-game-failed-st…; “China’s Influence in the \Arctic,” House Republicans Foreign Affairs Committee, last updated October 25, 2022, http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/china-regional-snapshot-arctic; Funaiole et al., “Frozen Frontiers; China’s Great Power Ambitions in the Polar Regions.”
^{^}William Yang, “China-Russia Cooperation Blocks Antarctic Conservation Proposals,” Voice of America, October 30, 2024, http://voanews.com/a/china-russia-cooperation-blocks-antarctic-conserva….
^{^}Ibid.
^{^} Berman, “Two Years of War in Ukraine: Are Sanctions Against Russia Making a Difference?”
^{^}“Average Russian Oil Exports by Country and Region, 2021–2023,” International Energy Agency, February 9, 2024, http://iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-russian-oil-exports-b…–23.
^{^}Rhea Mogul and Simone McCarthy, “China’s Largest Oil Supplier in 2023 Was Russia.”
^{^}Phelim Kine, “China’s Foreign Minister Faults ‘U.S. Misperceptions,’” Politico, March 7, 2024, http://politico.eu/newsletter/china-watcher/chinas-foreign-minister-fau….
^{^}Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2024 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, February 5, 2024, 8, http://dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/reports-publications/reports-publicat….
^{^}C. Textor, “Main Suppliers of Crude Oil to China in 2022 and 2023 (in Million Metric Tons),” July 10, 2024, Statista, http://statista.com/statistics/1310953/oil-imports-by-country-china.
^{^}Phillipp Ivanov, “Together and Apart: The Conundrum of the China-Russia Partnership,” Asia Society Policy Institute, Asia Society, October 11, 2023, http://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/together-and-apart-conundrum-ch….
^{^}Thomas des Garets Geddes, “The Art of Tasseography: China–Russia Relations as Viewed From China,” Royal United Services Institute, May 30, 2023, http://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/art-tasseo….
^{^}Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Richard Fontaine, “The Axis of Upheaval,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2024, http://foreignaffairs.com/china/axis-upheaval-russia-iran-north-korea-t….
^{^}William Burns, “Around the World with CIA Director William J. Burns,” YouTube video, 20:34, posted by The Cipher Brief, October 12, 2024, http://youtube.com/watch?v=S9yqvn8B3no.
^{^}Richard Fontaine, “Taking On China and Russia,” Foreign Affairs, November 18, 2022, http://foreignaffairs.com/united-states/taking-china-and-russia.
^{^}Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine, “The Axis of Upheaval.”
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}Robert Blackwill and Richard Fontaine, “Obama Tried to Pivot to Asia in 2011. We Must Succeed This Time,” Washington Post, June 10, 2024, http://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/10/trump-obama-biden-asia-pi….
^{^}Fontaine, “Taking on China and Russia”; Julian E. Barnes and Steven Lee Myers, “Russia, China and Iran Intend to Stoke False Election Claims, Officials Warn,” New York Times, October 7, 2024, http://nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/russia-china-iran-false-elect….
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}Christopher S. Chivvis and Jack Keating, Cooperation Between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia: Current and Potential Future Threats to America (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2024), 1-12, http://carnegie-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/files/Chivvis….
^{^}“Blossoming Relations: Russia Becomes Largest Foreign Investor in Iran,” i24 News, March 23, 2023, http://i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/iran-eastern-states/1679584666-ru….
^{^}Ryosuke Hanafusa, Shuntaro Fukutomi, and Yuta Koga, “Iran’s Oil Exports Reach 5-Year High, With China as Top Buyer,” Nikkei Asia, January 31, 2024, http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Iran-s-oil-exports-….
^{^}Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine, “The Axis of Upheaval.”
^{^}Fontaine, “Taking on China and Russia.”
^{^}Ibid.
^{^}See Defense Innovation Unit, Replicator, http://diu.mil/replicator.
^{^}Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine, “The Axis of Upheaval.”
^{^}Blackwill and Fontaine, “Obama Tried to Pivot.”
^{^}Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine, “The Axis of Upheaval.”
^{^}Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine, “The Axis of Upheaval.”
^{^}“Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development,” President of Russia, February 4, 2022, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74475 http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770.
^{^}Richard Fontaine, “The World That Putin Has Made,” Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2022, http://wsj.com/articles/the-world-that-putin-has-made-11647014690.
^{^}Robert M. Gates, “We Need a More Realistic Strategy for the Post–Cold War Era,” Washington Post, March 3, 2022, http://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/03/why-ukraine-should-force-….
^{^}Kendall-Taylor and Fontaine, “The Axis of Upheaval.”

Acknowledgments

We thank the members of the CFR Study Group on China-Russia Relations for their insights during our eight sessions over the past year. We are grateful to Stephen Biegun, Samuel Charap, Elizabeth Economy, Thomas Graham, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Patricia Kim, Evan Medeiros, Sergey Radchenko, Eugene Rumer, Angela Stent, Joseph Torigian, and Elizabeth Wishnick for presenting their findings to the group. We thank CFR President Mike Froman and Director of Studies Shannon O’Neil for their reviews and incisive comments, Cassandra Jensen and the CFR Publications team for their editorial contributions, and Ben Holtzman, Gibbs McKinley, David Brostoff, Turner Ruggi, Will Hemond, Kendall Carll, and Hal Rogers for their extensive research.

The analysis and conclusions are our responsibility alone.

Introduction

China Strategy Initiative

China’s View of the China-Russia Relationship

Russia’s View of the China-Russia Relationship

China-Russia Collaboration to Undermine the West

Diplomatic Collaboration

Eyes on Asia

Insights and analysis from CFR fellows on the latest developments across Asia. Monthly.

Military Collaboration

Economic Collaboration

Policy Recommendations

The Fantasy of Wedge-Driving

Tackling the Twin Tasks

Conclusion

Endnotes

Endnotes

Acknowledgments

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