Center for Preventive Action

Conflict Risk Assessment and Monitoring

Project Expert

Paul Stares
Paul B. Stares

General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action

About the Project

To help focus U.S. conflict prevention and crisis preparedness efforts, the Center for Preventive Action conducts an annual survey of foreign policy experts to assess which potential contingencies in the coming year deserve more attention and resources than others. The results are released in the Preventive Priorities Survey which ranks thirty plausible contingencies in order of their likelihood and potential impact. CPA also provides background information and up-to-date analysis of contingencies worldwide on its online interactive, the Global Conflict Tracker.

This project is made possible by the generous support of Carnegie Corporation of New York.

Events

Terrorism and Counterterrorism

Panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2024, as well as their global political implications. This event will explore the results of CFR’s 2024 Preventive Priorities Survey. 

Conflict Prevention

Panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2020, as well as their global political implications. This event explores the results of the 2020 Preventive Priorities Survey, which is available on cfr.org/report/conflicts-watch-2020.

Conflict Prevention

Panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2019, as well as their global political implications, and explore the results of the 2019 Preventive Priorities Survey, conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action. 

Conflict Prevention

Panelists discuss the potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2018, as well as their global political implications.

Conflict Prevention

Experts discuss the global political implications of potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2017.

Conflict Prevention

Three leading conflict experts discussed potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2016, as well as their global political and economic implications.

Conflict Prevention

Three leading conflict experts discussed potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2016, as well as their global political and economic implications.

Conflict Prevention

In keeping with the core mission of the Center for Preventive Action, this meeting evaluated the most worrisome sources of instability and conflict in 2015. The speakers discussed their respective or…

Conflict Prevention

In keeping with the core mission of the Center for Preventive Action, this meeting evaluates the most worrisome sources of instability and conflict in 2014.

Conflict Prevention

David F. Gordon, Mark L. Schneider, and Paul B. Stares discuss their respective organization's assessments of the risks and the most worrisome sources of instability and conflict in 2012.

Conflict Prevention

Paul B. Stares, David F. Gordon, and Mark L. Schneider discuss conflicts that could break out or escalate in 2013.

Blogs

Global

Today, we at the Center for Preventive Action released our Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) for 2015. This is the seventh in our annual effort to harness crowd wisdom and foreign policy expertise i…

United States

This post originally appeared on the Atlantic online. President Obama has repeatedly pledge to do “nation-building at home” during his second-term.  However, it is likely that unanticipated world …

Conflict Prevention

  2012 Preventive Priorities Map.   Last Thursday, the Center for Preventive Action team published our fifth annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS): a list of thirty contingencies r…

United States

    A protester holds a tear gas canister, initially thrown by riot police near Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt on November 22, 2011 (Courtesy Reuters/Amr Dalsh).   This post originally app…

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Increasing geopolitical friction between the United States and other major powers—including China, the European Union, India, and Russia—not only increases the risk of major war but also lessens the …