• Nigeria
    The OBJ of Illiberalism
    Nigerian statesman Olusegun Obasanjo’s rejection of liberal democracy is heartfelt—and wrong.  
  • Palestinian Territories
    Who Governs the Palestinians?
    Power in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, the so-called Palestinian territories, has been divided among three entities: a governing body called the Palestinian Authority, the militant group Hamas, and the state of Israel. But as Israel now seeks to destroy Hamas, it is unclear who would administer Gaza instead.
  • Elections and Voting
    Ailing Democracy and Declining Women’s Representation: How They Are Related and What to Do About It
    Annual reports on the health of democracy this year reaffirmed an ongoing trend of decline, which has occurred alongside a less heralded but related stalling of women’s political participation. Given that women make up half of the world’s population, a greater focus on promoting women’s political empowerment can help rescue the world’s ailing democracies. While the proportion of women in parliament has quadrupled over the past fifty years, women only represent 26.9 percent of the world’s parliamentarians, far below their proportion in the population and well below the critical mass deemed necessary to influence legislative outcomes. Even fewer women are in leadership positions in both legislatures and national executive office. Measures that make democratic systems more democratic can arrest regression and make the systems more inclusive of women and other underrepresented citizens.  For many, the linkage between democracy and women’s rights and representation appears obvious. A government “by the people, for the people” naturally should include women’s full representation, just as the concept of equal rights for all includes women’s rights. Ample research has documented the societal benefits, including peace, stability, and increased GDP, that come with increasing equality. However, these basic concepts have come under assault in today’s culture war environment where advocacy for gender equality is deemed “gender ideology.” A 2023 study [PDF] by the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security added to the existing body of research by documenting that women’s representation is strongly correlated with the health of democracy [PDF], as measured by the indicators of free elections, free association, and checks on government power. The study’s authors argue that investments in women should therefore be viewed as investments in strong democratic systems.  Democracy promotion programs aimed at women have traditionally focused primarily on support for gender quotas in parliaments and legislatures, and training and supporting women candidates for office. Aiding Empowerment: Democracy Promotion and Gender Equality in Politics, a new book by Saskia Brechenmacher and Katherine Mann, examines the track record of gender equality programs and argues for a much broader approach to women’s empowerment, essentially by making democracies more democratic. These prescriptions dovetail with other democracy promotion proposals put forward by groups like the Partners in Democracy project led by Harvard’s Danielle Allen, the FairVote organization cofounded by Rob Ritchie and his wife, Cynthia Terrell, who is also CEO of RepresentWomen. The premise is that both democracy and women would benefit from reforms that make voting systems more representative, such as ranked choice voting, which has begun to be adopted in several U.S. states and localities. Proportional representation or mixed electoral systems consistently result in much higher levels of women’s representation compared to single-member winner-take-all voting schemes (28.7 percent versus 11.7 percent in the past year’s elections).  Other reforms to make democracies more democratic include measures to make political parties more democratic. The male gatekeepers who dominate the world’s political parties are often a key obstacle to women achieving real influence in the critical decisions of what legislation is brought forward and its content, not to mention candidate selection, party support for candidacies, and positions on party lists. Also, the legislatures themselves are often run in undemocratic ways, and parliamentary reform is needed to permit more voices to be heard. Such measures could decrease the perception that politics is a rigged game. Disillusion with democracy has been on the rise, as reflected in polls that show younger generations’ lower appreciation for this form of government and greater willingness to embrace authoritarianism.  Democratic reforms may be necessary but insufficient to level the playing field for women in politics. Brechenmacher and Mann recognize that additional measures are likely needed to address hurdles particular to women politicians, which include a disproportionate level of gendered violence, the burden of family care responsibilities that still fall heavily on women, the pay gap and lack of fundraising networks or personal funds, and sticky social norms that continue to regard certain jobs, behaviors, and roles as traditionally male. The good news is that, according to a Pew Research Center survey, a majority of Americans believe there should be more women in politics and in leadership roles. The bad news is the majority is smaller than the last time the question was asked in 2018. A majority think women must do more to prove themselves, while large pluralities say gender discrimination and other hurdles play a role. Many believe equality will be reached eventually without policy interventions, but the slow increase and the recent alarming data on stalling progress suggest otherwise.  Around the world, signs of the decline in both democracy and women’s rights abound. The Varieties of Democracy, or V-Dem project, the most in-depth analysis of global trends, reported that the decline in democracy continued in 2023 for the fifteenth year. Approximately 71 percent of the world’s population lives under autocratic rule (either closed autocracies or electoral autocracies). Simultaneously, the trajectory for women’s representation shows clear signs of stalling. According to the Inter-Parliamentary Union, the number of women winning seats in parliament fell or stayed the same in thirty-four countries that held elections in 2023. The rate of women’s gains in 2023 was flat compared to 2022 rate and lower than in 2020 and 2021.  Given how pronounced these twin trends are, passivity could result in further democratic erosion and increased autocracy. Moreover, the outlook for 2024 is not promising. Of sixty national-level elections occurring this year, thirty-one are occurring in conditions of declining democracy and only three in conditions of improving democracy, by V-Dem’s count.   The trend of decline for both democracy and women’s representation and rights is a global one, with regional variations. Eastern Europe shows the greatest degradation in V-Dem’s assessment, with the consolidation of autocracy in Belarus and Russia and continued democratic regression projected in Croatia, Hungary, Romania, and Serbia. Similarly, South and Central Asia’s decline is likely to continue, heavily weighted by the expected victory of Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, who would consolidate his brand of Hindu nationalism in a government that V-Dem labels as increasingly autocratic. Women’s rights and representation score low in these countries, with outright regression in many. India’s parliament passed a bill last year that would reserve one-third of the seats in India’s lower house for women, but it not due to take effect until 2029. In Africa, coups and military takeovers marked a continued record of democratic decline, and South Africa’s elections may still be dominated by the discredited long-ruling African National Congress.  In Latin America, fewer citizens are seeing democracy as the preferred form of government, according to Latinobarometro, down to 48 percent in 2023 compared to 60 percent the year before. Women, who remain underrepresented in most Latin American countries, are the most dissatisfied, at 70 percent. Latin America’s strong gains in women’s representation after years of activism are also under attack by populist authoritarians who seek to roll back women’s rights, as recently elected Argentinian president Javier Milei has pledged to do. The bright spot of the region was Brazil, which reversed its democratic decline when President Lula da Silva took over from Jair Bolsonaro, who had restricted rights and attempted to stay in office after he lost elections in 2022.  In the Middle East, the region deemed the most autocratic in the world as well as the most unfavorable to women, the lone democratizing country continues to degrade. After the Arab Spring, Tunisia adopted a new constitution that enshrined gender equality, a “zebra” electoral system where lists alternate men and women candidates, and government-provided campaign financing. The result was a high-water mark of 31 percent women in the parliament in 2014. Democracy has declined precipitously since President Kais Saied conducted a “self-coup” [PDF] in 2021, followed by repression, jailing of opponents, and electoral changes to single-member majority voting that shrank women’s representation to 16.2 percent in 2023. The lone liberal democracy in the region, Israel, was downgraded to the category of electoral democracy for the first time.  Election results in 2024 may not provide good news, judging from the outcomes to date. But if nothing else, they may serve as a wake-up call for democracy activists to rally around systemic reforms to rescue this form of government and ensure greater representation for half the world’s population.  This publication is part of the Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy.
  • Mexico
    Mexico’s Presidential Election, With Andrés Rozental
    Podcast
    Andrés Rozental, a distinguished retired Mexican diplomat, president of Rozental & Asociados, and the founding president of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the dynamics of Mexico’s upcoming election and its consequences for the Mexican people as well as for U.S.-Mexico relations.
  • Election 2024
    Election 2024: Is the United States Looking at a New Nuclear Arms Race?
    Each Friday, I look at what the presidential contenders are saying about foreign policy. This Week: The demise of arms control agreements and the rise of geopolitical competition are a dangerous mix.
  • Mexico
    Mexico’s 2024 Elections: What to Know
    Against a backdrop of widespread violence, a record number of voters will look to elect Mexico’s first woman president in a June election that polls predict will go to Claudia Sheinbaum.
  • South Africa
    South Africans Poised to Shake Up Their Governing Status Quo
    The provincial and national elections on May 29 come amid waning support for the ruling African National Congress thirty years after South Africa transitioned to democracy.
  • Middle East Program
    Constitutions Thick and Thin
    The sharp debate in Israel last year over “judicial reform” raised basic questions that arise in most democracies about constitutions: What are they meant to be and to do? Even the definition of a “constitution” is debatable. University College London tells its students this: A constitution is the rule book for a state.  It sets out the fundamental principles by which the state is governed.  It describes the main institutions of the state, and defines the relationship between these institutions (for example, between the executive, legislature and judiciary).  It places limits on the exercise of power, and sets out the rights and duties of citizens. By that definition, constitutions serve two basic functions. First, they set forth the rules that define the structure of government, allocating roles to key institutions and describing their interrelationships. Second, they define and protect citizens’ rights. As the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance put it [PDF], constitutions place “the fundamental rights of citizens in a higher law that cannot be unilaterally changed by an ordinary legislative act.” Most countries have constitutions that at least on paper achieve both objectives. Only five countries do not have a written constitution: Canada, Israel, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom. They have laws, “basic laws,” and legal traditions, but lack a single unified constitutional document. The “Thin” Constitution Because many rulings by the U.S. Supreme Court have been controversial when handed down, the United States has seen decades of debates over the meaning of the U.S. Constitution. In 1999, constitutional scholar Mark Tushnet of Harvard Law School proposed that the “real” U.S. Constitution, what he called the “thin constitution,” is comprised not of the Constitution’s articles and amendments but rather of the Declaration of Independence and the Preamble to the Constitution. Those two documents (or at least what he says are the key parts of them) provide “fundamental guarantees of equality, freedom of expression, and liberty.”  In his view, constitutional law should consist of interpreting those two documents. Judicial review as the United States has known it throughout its history should be eliminated, he argues. It shifts too much power from the elected representatives of the people to unelected judges. It leads citizens and legislators to concentrate on the rulings of courts and the views of judges rather than on the fundamental precepts of American liberty. Legislators think too much about the courts when legislating and leave constitutional issues to the courts when Congress itself should judge how proposed laws will affect the liberty of its constituents. So Tushnet proposes a constitutional amendment that says, “[t]he provisions of this Constitution shall not be cognizable by any court.” Tushnet’s idea of a “thin constitution” without judicial review has been criticized for vagueness. He calls “a law committed to the principle of universal human rights justifiable by reason in the service of self-government.”  The reviewer of Tushnet’s Taking the Constitution Away from the Courts in the Yale Law Journal wrote that “Tushnet’s thin constitution can be made to mean absolutely anything in practice, which signifies that it actually constitutes nothing.” Others have argued similarly that a U.S. Constitution based solely on the Preamble and the Declaration would not be judicially enforceable because the concepts are malleable. Perhaps the deepest criticism of Tushnet’s thin constitution is that it assumes wide agreement on the concepts embedded and exemplified in the Declaration and the Preamble—the consensus the late Harvard political scientist Louis Hartz described in his classic work The Liberal Tradition in America as based in the theories of John Locke and the realities of a United States that grew without roots in a feudal past. Tushnet says “ordinary people” back the basic concepts of his thin constitution, but he offers no evidence to prove it. The “Thick” Constitution There is another, directly contrary definition of a “thin constitution” that turns Tushnet upside down. In this theory, a thin constitution is one that sets only the rules of the game—the relations among institutions of government—but does not speak to the rights of citizens or to conflicts over values at all. This kind of thin constitution is being proposed today in Israel, which suffered highly divisive debates over judicial reform in 2023. One of the main advocates for this view, Israeli law professor Yedidia Stern, argues that Israel is still on a dangerous and slippery slope toward war between the branches of government….The root of the problem lies in the fact that in Israel, contrary to what is accepted in most constitutional democracies, the rules of the game regulating how the branches of government operate and interact can be changed by a simple Knesset majority….the rules of the game must be anchored in a constitutional document that cannot be changed without broad agreement. Stern would prefer a “thick” constitution that “addresses the other big questions governed by constitutions—the core principles of the state and a bill of human rights.” But he has concluded that “given the heterogeneity of Israeli society and the deep disagreement over the vision of the state, we must regrettably acknowledge that achieving broad public consensus on these critical issues appears to be an unsurmountable challenge, at least in the foreseeable future.” That seems like a reasonable view, but Hanna Lerner of Tel Aviv University argues that it’s too late even for a new “thin” constitution once a state has been established. Agreeing on the rules of the game, she says, can only occur at the inception of the state: “moments of ‘new beginning’ when state institutions are in their formative stage.” After that, “the institutional legacy that evolved over the years—particularly the constitutional dialogue between the legislature and judiciary—hinders the separation between constitutional debates over institutional issues from disputes over the character of the state.” Israel’s earlier constitutional debate in between 2003 and 2006 exemplified that, Lerner argues. Those seeking to draft a constitution were unable to separate “the two aspects of the constitutional debate—institutional design or re-design (e.g., regarding procedures of legislation or questions regarding the structure of the judiciary) and the foundational debate on the definition of the state’s identity (e.g., concerning the role of religious law or the right to equality).” Stern’s approach is to deal solely with the “less controversial” structural and institutional matters, but Lerner argues this is impossible:  “Having evolved over many years, the institutional legacy impedes the isolation of institutional design from intricate ideological conflicts that divide society.” Tushnet avoids these problems by suggesting that the two existing documents, the Declaration and the Preamble, serve as guides for Americans. But as critics have noted, those documents were the product of a particular era and society. We are now 235 years from the ratification of the U.S. Constitution, and it’s not at all clear that its main precepts still characterize the beliefs of U.S. citizens about political structures and rights. Tushnet’s desire to eliminate judicial review and leave constitutional questions to Congress might be a formula for change—or for even more divisiveness and partisan wars than Americans now face. The Unamendable Constitution Constitutional changes of the sort Stern wants for Israel will not happen in the United States (and so far not in Israel either). The U.S. Constitution is very difficult to amend, requiring a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress and approval by three-quarters (now thirty-eight) of the states.  No amendment has been adopted since 1992 (the Twenty-Seventh Amendment says, “No law, varying the compensation for the services of the Senators and Representatives, shall take effect, until an election of Representatives shall have intervened”) and no significant one since 1971 when the voting age was set at eighteen by the Twenty-Sixth Amendment. The Founders thought amending the Constitution would be easier, perhaps because the nation was not yet divided into political parties that would judge amendments by the effects on their own partisan interests. It’s no coincidence that those last two amendments did not seem, at the time of adoption anyway, to afford either party an advantage over the other. Jefferson thought that each generation should make its own laws, and that, “Every constitution then, & every law, naturally expires at the end of 19 years.” That’s not how it has turned out, and some observers think amendments that go beyond small technical changes are simply a thing of the past: Jill Lepore calls the Constitution “effectively unamendable.”  Perhaps it is—or perhaps, to phrase it as Yedidia Stern would, only amendments to the United States’s thin constitution are possible, affecting only procedural rules, but not amendments to the “thick constitution” governing the fundamental rights of citizens. The inability of Americans to amend their constitution or of Israelis to write one are not unique; consider the case of Chile. After widespread protests in 2019, Chile appointed a commission to write a new constitution to replace the 1980 version adopted under the military dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet. A lengthy draft viewed as left of center was rejected in a 2022 referendum, by a vote of 62 percent to 38 percent. Back to the drawing board: another, shorter draft was produced that was viewed as right of center. In 2023, that draft was rejected in a referendum by a vote of 56 percent to 44 percent. Chile has now abandoned its constitution writing process. It seems much easier to write and adopt a constitution in a democracy if the society understands that it is temporary. The constitution adopted in 2010 in the Dominican Republic, for example, was its thirty-ninth, and Ecuador’s 2008 constitution was its twentieth. Fiji’s 2013 constitution was its fourth since independence in 1970. In those and similar cases, there is apparently less of what Hanna Lerner called an “institutional legacy” to hamper efforts at change. But when change is rare and extremely consequential, constitutional reform is difficult even without U.S.-style procedural requirements. Perhaps this is a good outcome: if a constitution is meant to protect basic rights, frequent change can mean frequent opportunities and temptations to undermine those rights whenever they become politically unpopular. Here we return to the critique of Tushnet: this may not be a problem if there is a very broad and deep consensus on liberal principles and the protection of citizens’ rights, but it is a danger when those rights are hotly contested. What is the right answer, then: thick or thin constitution, a constitution that sets procedures or one that protects basic human rights, a constitution whose interpretation relies on the courts or one that allows the legislature to act from very broad principles? The stability of procedures and protection of rights in Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, all of which have no written constitution, reminds us that constitutions are not a magical talisman against abuses or failures. Laws and constitutions reflect the societies that give rise to them. In some cases, that is a guarantee of liberty and effective government. In others, it is good cause for worry. This publication is part of the Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy.
  • Iran
    Iran’s Succession Woes, ICC Angers Israel, South Africa’s Election, and More
    Podcast
    Iran’s regime carefully vets candidates for new presidential elections after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash; Israeli leadership reacts to the International Criminal Court (ICC) request for warrants to arrest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant; South Africa prepares for a general election that could contest the ruling African National Congress’ long-standing majority; and Taiwan inaugurates Lai Ching-te as the new president, aggravating China.
  • Burkina Faso
    When Civilians Become Targets
    Recurrent deadly encounters between soldiers and civilians across West Africa offer an instructive glimpse into the state of civil-military relations in the region.
  • Immigration and Migration
    The Strategic Impact of the Global Movement of People: A Conversation With the Council of Councils
    Play
    Foreign policy institute leaders from around the world discuss the dynamics of global migration, including the importance of international cooperation in managing both the documented and undocumented movement of people. The Council of Councils (CoC) is an international initiative created by the Council on Foreign Relations to connect leading foreign policy institutes from around the world in a dialogue on issues of global governance and multilateral cooperation. The CoC is composed of twenty-eight major policy institutes from some of the world’s most influential countries. It is designed to facilitate candid, not-for-attribution dialogue and consensus-building among influential opinion leaders from both established and emerging nations, with the ultimate purpose of injecting the conclusions of its deliberations into high-level foreign policy circles within members’ countries.
  • Election 2024
    Election 2024: Biden Raises Tariffs on China
    Each Friday, I look at what the presidential contenders are saying about foreign policy. This Week: President Joe Biden imposed new tariffs on Chinese imports, raising tensions with Beijing and slowing America’s green transition.