• Global
    A Conversation with Senator Ben Cardin: Anticorruption in U.S. Foreign Policy under the Trump Administration
    Play
    Senator Ben Cardin discusses corruption's effect on economic and social inequalities, investment, development, and democratic institutions.
  • Brazil
    What U.S. Policymakers Can Learn From Brazil’s Anticorruption Gains
    Introduction Corruption costs Brazil an estimated 3 to 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) annually. Yet, Brazil today is lauded internationally for its efforts to combat graft. An important shift has taken place since the country’s return to democracy in 1985. Brazil has seen a steady increase in bureaucratic audits, civil servants removed from office and fined, and politicians barred from elections for wrongdoing. Over the past five years, trials in two major scandals—the mensalão scheme of payments by the government to legislative allies and the Lava Jato [PDF] scheme of kickbacks from state-owned companies to corrupt executives and politicians—have altered the public’s perceptions about the costs of corruption, as well as the possibility of holding powerful actors to account. These improvements give reason for cautious optimism. Brazil’s progress—though tenuous—largely reflects homegrown efforts. Still, the nation’s path holds important lessons for how U.S. policymakers might assist other countries in their fight against corruption. By enhancing international cooperation capacity, providing targeted technical training, and encouraging the adoption of international norms, the United States can advance the efforts of local reformers in other middle-income democracies. Background Brazil’s successes against corruption have progressed together with its young democracy. Its new democratic 1988 constitution [PDF] guaranteed equality before the law and enhanced the public’s right to information. While often flouted in practice, these constitutional provisions gave citizens a claim against state abuses and tools to demand better public services. The constitution also provided a useful foundation for anticorruption reforms by allowing citizen-led petitions onto the legislative agenda, leading to prohibitions against vote-buying and against convicted politicians standing for office. Democracy gave voters electoral leverage over politicians, forcing them to address graft concerns. The need for fiscal transparency, especially during the fight against hyperinflation, led to better public oversight [PDF] of government budgets through enhanced public access and stronger rules curbing government spending. Second, responding to the human rights abuses and policy failures of the authoritarian period, both civil servants and politicians sought to improve the effectiveness of the public sector and build its institutional capacity. Courts, prosecutors, police, and oversight agencies grew in autonomy, size, and strength, enabling them to undertake real efforts against graft. Brazil began slowly shifting away from patronage, adopting rigorous merit-based examinations and reducing the number of appointees. More budgetary resources permitted anticorruption agencies to move investigations forward. Accountability agencies gained tools for building successful investigations, including new anti–money  laundering [PDF], plea bargaining, and racketeering laws, along with improved fiscal oversight and banking regulations. Bureaucrats also began working with allies in other countries, leading to the adoption of bilateral and multilateral frameworks that enhance anticorruption efforts. Brazil joined the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Anti-Bribery Convention in 2000 and updated anticorruption legislation to correct shortcomings in enforcement of that convention, including by passing a major corporate anticorruption bill in 2013. Third, civil society groups have kept anticorruption efforts in the spotlight, highlighting problems, proposing solutions, and driving reforms. A free press has pressured elected officials through broad media coverage of malfeasance and has educated citizens about the costs of corruption and potential solutions. Most recently, in March 2016, two million citizens joined a petition for congress to consider a ten-point proposal drafted by prosecutors to strengthen anticorruption laws. The combination of media attention and public mobilization has sustained the anticorruption agenda, supporting and promoting legislative change, and defending anti-graft campaigners against pushback. Challenges Significant challenges remain. Despite democracy’s generally positive effect on anticorruption efforts, Brazil’s electoral system encourages corruption. Open-list proportional representation voting and weak party labels fragment the party system and increase the costs of electoral campaigns, which are among the most expensive in the world. The expense and high degree of intraparty competition also creates incentives for politicians to rely on illicit finance for a competitive edge. To govern effectively, the president has to build a coalition from more than two dozen legislative parties, often relying on perks such as appointments to plum spots in the public bureaucracy, state-owned enterprises, and semiautonomous public agencies. Bargaining chips like these have been used both to build political support, and—as the Lava Jato investigation has shown—to illegally fill campaign coffers and offshore bank accounts. The courts, even though they are independent and well funded [PDF], move too slowly to effectively punish corrupt actors. Strong rights protections, delay-ridden processes, and endless appeals all conspire against efficient resolution of even the most egregious cases. The Supreme Federal Tribunal, which adjudicates cases against many federal officials, is poorly equipped to serve as a criminal court, in part because it is congested with more than one hundred thousand cases a year. The first conviction of a sitting federal politician occurred in 2010, twenty-five years after the return to democracy; he remained free on appeal until 2013. Opponents of anticorruption efforts remain powerful. Politicians who benefit from the status quo have tried to slow or undermine reforms, proposing bills to permit politicians’ families to repatriate undeclared foreign assets, give amnesty to defendants at firms that reach leniency deals with the government, and restrict prosecutorial independence. Most recently, the lower house amended to insignificance the ten-point anticorruption petition proposed by prosecutors. Meanwhile, perceived excesses, such as leaked wiretaps and the extensive use of pretrial detention, undermine the goals of anticorruption agencies. Recommendations Despite these ongoing challenges, Brazil’s anticorruption gains provide guidance for steps the United States can take to effectively support anticorruption efforts in a wide range of middle-income democracies around the world, including South Korea, India, and South Africa. Expand U.S. cooperation with other countries’ law enforcement and prosecutors. The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has cooperated with Brazilian authorities to share information on potential targets and investigations, and advance shared enforcement actions against Brazilian firms such as Embraer, Odebrecht, and Braskem. The DOJ’s efforts brought legitimacy and greater effectiveness to Brazilian prosecutorial efforts. Yet the DOJ’s Office of International Affairs (OIA)—often the starting point for such cooperation—has been unable to address mounting inbound requests from foreign partners, leading to significant delays in information sharing. Although OIA resources were recently increased, OIA still needs to make a concerted effort to improve the response time for international requests. Create a new professional exchange program for anticorruption authorities. The DOJ should create a program similar to the U.S. State Department’s International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP) to provide foreign anticorruption authorities with a network of U.S. counterparts and access to targeted legal expertise about international best practices, innovative uses of similar statutes, and successful reform efforts. The Brazilian judge at the center of the Lava Jato investigation, Sergio Moro, participated in the State Department IVLP program a decade ago and has noted the useful ties it provided to U.S. authorities. With congressional funding, the DOJ should expand existing exchange programs to provide deeper training beyond today’s frequently ad hoc and boilerplate introductions, which are seldom tailored to the specific training needs of foreign authorities. Even at their most basic, such programs help anticorruption campaigners fight the isolation that often besets them at home. Advocate for the adoption of stronger anticorruption prosecutorial tools and efficient judicial procedures in partner countries. In Brazil, the adoption of plea bargaining, the strengthening of antiracketeering statutes, and the enhancement of anti–money laundering laws over the past decade were vital to building cases against private and public sector officials alike. A fledgling law on corporate leniency agreements, modeled on U.S. non-prosecution and deferred prosecution agreements, has been used to significant effect in the Lava Jato investigation. The DOJ and U.S. Agency for International Development should encourage the adoption of similar tools and procedures, tailored to local institutions, while sharing lessons learned from international efforts to increase the effectiveness of anticorruption prosecutions. Direct U.S. programming and funding to support middle-income countries’ efforts to build and train a professional civil service. In Brazil, merit-based hiring, higher salaries, and better budgets have increased the quality of police, prosecutors, tax collectors, and other agencies’ work in the fight against corruption. Homegrown efforts to increase professionalization should be complemented with training on international best practices on anticorruption, which could be developed by the State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, in consultation with the DOJ’s International Criminal Investigative Training Assistance Program and the Office of Overseas Prosecutorial Development Assistance and Training. Encourage middle-income democracies to join multilateral anticorruption bodies. Committing to the standards of international anticorruption bodies—including the OECD Anti-Bribery Convention—helps lock in periodic reviews of anticorruption enforcement, provides access to best practices, and drives reform. Multilateral frameworks such as the Financial Action Task Force and the Anti-Bribery Convention have the benefit of demonstrating that anticorruption is a multilateral effort, rather than an imposition by a single country. By taking these steps, the United States can enhance middle-income countries’ ability to stem corrupt practices that threaten economic development, institutional stability, and the integrity of global business transactions. Absent such efforts, the path toward effective anticorruption efforts in middle-income nations such as Brazil may be unnecessarily difficult and subject to reversal. 
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Madueke Trial to Begin in June
    Former Nigerian Minister of Petroleum Resources Diezani Allison Madueke will be tried for money laundering in the United Kingdom in June. For many observers,  Maduekwe is the face of high-level corruption in Nigeria. A former minister of transport, she served as petroleum minister in the government of Goodluck Jonathan. During her days of flying high, she collected “firsts,” she was the first female minister of transport, the first female minister of petroleum, and the first female secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). She was also the first female appointed to the board of the Shell Petroleum Development Corporation. Her extravagant lifestyle – ranging from multiple hotel suites in the same city on the same trip to private planes to private palaces costing millions (if not billions) of naira was notorious. The rumor mill had her “close” to then-President Goodluck Jonathan, rivaling his wife, Patience (also popularly excoriated for her conspicuous consumption). Seemingly arrogant, greedy, and vain, Diezani’s public persona in a poor country evokes disdain. However her culpability in stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from the Nigerian state remains to be proven. Nigerian agencies, notably the Economic and Financial crimes Commission (EFC), has been cooperating with the UK authorities. According to one spokesman, “We have taken more evidence to the UK… We have a huge pile of documents.” Diezani will be tried with her two brothers. Ostensibly she went to the UK where her mother lives following Jonathan’s defeat in the 2015 presidential elections for treatment for breast cancer. She denies any charges of wrongdoing and that she “fled” Nigeria. Central to Muhammadu Buhari’s victory in the 2015 presidential elections over Goodluck Jonathan was public revulsion over the scale of official corruption. In response to public outcry, Buhari campaigned on an anti-corruption platform. Since his election he has made the fight against corruption one of the two centerpieces of his administration. The other has been the defeat of the radical jihadist movement called Boko Haram.
  • China
    Samsung Scandal, Islamic State and China, Philippine HIV, and More
    Rachel Brown, Sherry Cho, Larry Hong, and Gabriel Walker look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Samsung heir indicted on corruption charges. Lee Jae-yong, the de facto head of Samsung Group, was formally indicted on Tuesday on bribery and embezzlement charges. Lee’s indictment was the culmination of a ninety-day special prosecutor investigation of an intensifying corruption scandal that has already brought about President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment. Lee was arrested on February 17 but was not formally indicted until February 28 on charges that include allegedly paying roughly $38 million (43 billion won) to Choi Soon-sil, Park’s close confidante and corruption scandal linchpin, and two nonprofit foundations Choi controlled. Samsung is one of eight Korean conglomerates that has admitted to making payments to Choi and her nonprofit foundations, but claims that the payments were made under coercion. The alleged bribes were purportedly made in exchange for the South Korean government’s backing of a contentious merger in 2015 of two Samsung affiliates that helped Lee inherit corporate control from his father. The merger allegedly enlarged the stock value of the Lee family by at least $758 million at the cost of at least $123 million in losses for the national pension fund, which held large stakes in the two affiliates. Lee’s father, Lee Kun-hee, has been twice convicted of bribery and tax evasion but was presidentially pardoned both times by then-presidents Kim Young-sam and Lee Myung-bak. At least six of South Korea’s top ten chaebol conglomerates—which generate a revenue equivalent to more than 80 percent of South Korean gross domestic product—are led by men once convicted of white-collar crimes. Four other Samsung senior executives were also indicted on February 28, but not arrested, on the same corruption charges as Mr. Lee; three of the four have resigned. 2. Self-proclaimed Islamic State targets China in new video. A video released by the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) showed a Uighur fighter in Iraq conducting an execution and proclaiming to China, “We will come to you to clarify to you with the tongues of our weapons, to shed blood like rivers and avenging the oppressed.” It also features shots of Chinese police conducting surveillance, most likely in Xinjiang, and a burning Chinese flag. The video follows other China-focused media released by IS, including an online chant issued in Mandarin in December 2015, which encouraged Chinese Muslims to “take up weapons to fight.” Some Chinese nationals have heeded the call, and an estimated one hundred to three hundred Uighurs, including children and the elderly, have traveled to Iraq and Syria. The video comes at a particularly unfortunate time for Chinese officials already on edge about violence in Xinjiang. Security tightened dramatically following a knife attack in the autonomous region in mid-February, and over ten thousand troops rallied in the provincial capital this week. In the long run, however, it is unclear whether this crackdown will improve public safety or simply drive further radicalization. 3. Philippine fight against HIV falters as rates climb. Since 1984, when HIV was first reported in the Philippines, the prevalence and spread of the virus were described as “low and slow.” Between 2010 and 2015, the rate of new infections climbed by more than 50 percent—the highest in all of Asia. Though the population-wide prevalence is still relatively low today, the epidemic is widespread among young people. According to the Philippine Department of Health, 57 percent of young gay men in high school or college are at risk for contracting HIV, and 67 percent of those who are HIV positive are between fifteen and twenty-four years old. To combat the epidemic, this past Valentine’s Day the National Youth Commission launched an anti-HIV campaign called “Virus Ends With Us,” which aims to teach parents and educators how to approach taboo subjects and help eliminate stigma surrounding the condition. Unfortunately, stakeholders are of different minds as to how to fight the skyrocketing infection rates: last month, a coalition of conservative politicians, parents, and the Roman Catholic Church pressured the Departments of Health and Education to halt a proposed program that would have provided sexual education and distributed condoms in schools. 4. More Chinese students study abroad, and more return home. According to China’s Ministry of Education, around 80 percent of Chinese students studying abroad, or “sea turtles” as they are called in China (because the word is a homophone for “returning from overseas”), have returned home, in contrast to about one-third in 2006. While Beijing claims that the record number of returnees is due to the fact that the Chinese job market has become increasingly appealing, the reality could be more complex. In the United States, which is the most popular destination for Chinese students, the demand for foreign skilled-workers visas, known as H-1Bs, often far outstrips the supply of such visas, forcing the U.S. government to employ a lottery system. A seasoned immigration lawyer suggested that the chance of being selected in the lottery in 2014 is about 50 percent. Those who are not chosen will be forced to return home or apply to another degree program. H-1B visa sponsors also generally favor technology experts and those with more advanced degrees, and most Chinese students are enrolled in master programs in business and marketing. Beijing is at least partly correct on one count: many “sea turtles” are returning to China to join the frenzied startup boom in China, thanks in large part to the Chinese government’s generous financial support for startups. 5. Xiaomi debuts smartphone chip. Lei Jun, the founder and CEO of China’s Xiaomi mobile phone company, showed off the firm’s first internally developed chip, the Pengpai S1, on Tuesday. The chip was produced by Xiaomi subsidiary Beijing Pinecone Electronics, and the entire endeavor cost more than one billion RMB ($145 million). The company received government support in developing the chip, although the exact value of that assistance remains unknown. Xiaomi now ranks among just two phone companies in China (the other is Huawei) and four international companies to create its own chip. The new smartphone processor is a major coup in China’s ongoing effort to strengthen its domestic semiconductor sector and reduce reliance on foreign manufacturers, particularly Qualcomm. Chinese firms have also sought to purchase semiconductor manufacturers abroad and acquire their technology, although foreign investment reviews have at times hampered such acquisitions. Chinese authorities and private companies are spending big on the semiconductor push, and now these efforts appear to be paying off. Bonus: India to publish first official sign language dictionary. This month, the Indian Sign Language Research and Training Center (ISLRTC) in Delhi, a group established by India’s ministry of social justice, will publish the first installment of its Indian Sign Language (ISL) dictionary. Though a university released another ISL dictionary early last year, ISLRTC’s promises to be the country’s first official and most comprehensive version, containing six thousand words in English and Hindi and forty-four different hand shapes under which each sign is categorized. India is estimated to have as many as 7 million deaf individuals (and only 300 certified ISL interpreters), with significant linguistic variation between sign languages of different regions. The ISLRTC dictionary promises not only to take into account regional variations in ISL, but also to improve ISL practitioners’ awareness of syntax and grammar necessary for communicating through written language. According to one ministry official, among all persons living with disabilities in India, deaf individuals have the lowest literacy rate. ISLRTC undertook its project as a part of the Rights of Persons with Disabilities Bill 2016, which requires the government “to ensure that persons with disabilities can access an inclusive, quality, and free primary education and secondary education on an equal basis with others in the communities in which they live.”
  • Americas
    Latin America’s Accountability Revolution
    A wave of corruption scandals has roiled Latin America in recent years, from Chile’s campaign finance affairs, through Mexico’s Casa Blanca revelations. Most recently, the information divulged in the December Odebrecht settlement has sent a shudder of fear across regional politics after the Brazilian construction firm admitted to paying nearly $800 million in bribes in twelve countries. The tide of corruption revelations has contributed to massive protests, slumping incumbent polls, and political uncertainty throughout the region. Obviously, the scandals of recent years differ greatly from each other. The Odebrecht scandal was driven by a Brazilian context very distinct from the Guatemalan environment that led to President Pérez Molina’s downfall, or from the Mexican and Chilean cases. Empirical evidence about corruption trends in the region is also quite mixed, with polls showing contradictory findings about the direction of public experiences with corruption victimization and public perceptions of corruption more broadly. For all these differences, there is a common silver lining to the region-wide wave of scandal. As a perceptive study released this week by the Inter-American Dialogue argues, the region has seen declining public tolerance of corruption and a rising normative edifice that makes it easier to tackle abuses. On the public side, authors Kevin Casas-Zamora and Miguel Carter catalogue a variety of factors that are changing the accountability equation. Citizens are angry: three-quarters of the population in Latin America view their society as unjust, and fewer than two in five express satisfaction with their democracies. An economic downturn has driven down incumbents’ average approval ratings across the region. Meanwhile, citizens are not only more motivated to mobilize, they are better able to do so: the revelations come against a backdrop of improving information transparency, changing access to public information through the widespread adoption of social media, and growth of a politically active middle class. Simultaneously, a “new normative edifice” of international agreements and standards, alongside improved national laws and policies, has given teeth to previously weak anticorruption bodies (see figure below). Laws have been introduced or rewritten in ways that constrain money laundering, reduce campaign finance violations, increase fiscal transparency, and facilitate prosecution. The investigative capacities of police and prosecutors have increased. New bodies, such as governmental auditing agencies and civil society anticorruption organizations, have been created in many countries over the past two decades. Anticorruption measures adopted by Latin American countries, 1990-2015 Source: Kevin Casas-Zamora and Miguel Carter, “Beyond the Scandals: The Changing Context of Corruption in Latin America,” Inter-American Dialogue, February 2017. The authors are quick to remind us that there is a big gap between laws on the books and “their effective implementation and enforcement.” But the cautiously optimistic conclusion I draw from their analysis is that the pincer movement of greater public mobilization for effective accountability, on the one hand, and institutional changes, on the other, is having tangible effects in fighting longstanding patterns of impunity for corruption across countries as diverse as Brazil, Chile, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Panama. This two-pronged process may continue to cause political instability for the foreseeable future. And the list of reforms that are still needed is enormous, from structural changes, such as addressing the economic and political disparities that diminish the equality of citizens before the law, to more “technical fixes” such as improving judicial performance and enhancing political finance oversight. But overall, the trend is a largely positive one, with declining public and institutional tolerance fueling corruption revelations. These in turn often generate the political pressure for legal and institutional reforms that have the potential to create less corrupt and more accountable political systems. Whether one agrees with this hopeful conclusion or not, the report is well worth a read, marshalling substantial cross-national evidence on the evolution of corruption and accountability processes across the region.
  • Venezuela
    Options for U.S. Policy in Venezuela
    Shannon K. O’Neil testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, addressing the ongoing crisis in Venezuela and proposing U.S. policy options aimed at combatting the political, economic, social, and humanitarian crises in the country. She called for targeted sanctions against human rights abusers, drug traffickers, and corrupt officials, a concerted effort to rally Venezuela’s South American neighbors in condemning Venezuela’s authoritarianism, and how the United States should prepare to help a new and more receptive Venezuelan government in the future. Takeaways: Venezuela faces unprecedented economic hardship; the economy shrinking by over 30 percent over the last four years, and over half of the population suffering extreme poverty as a result of both a steep decline in oil prices and gross economic mismanagement. Widespread corruption, too, is at the center of the ongoing crises, with tens of billions of dollars stolen through officials arbitraging exchange rates for personal gain, selling government-purchased foodstuffs on the black market, or straightforward theft. Venezuela’s challenges threaten to undermine economic stability, security, and democracy in the Western Hemisphere. The third largest oil producer in the hemisphere, production disruptions could affect U.S. refineries and lead to general hike prices. The Maduro government’s willingness to permit drug traffickers, organized crime networks, and potential terrorists to operate within its borders undercuts U.S. national and regional security efforts. And Venezuela’s authoritarian turn contradicts long standing U.S. foreign policy ideals and goals, and erodes stability, peace, and development in the region as a whole. Policy Options: The United States should continue to use targeted sanctions against human rights abusers, drug traffickers, and corrupt officials, denying these individuals access to the United States and the benefits of its financial system, while simultaneously avoiding the humanitarian costs that broader sanctions would inflict on the Venezuelan population. The United States should work to build a regional coalition to condemn Venezuela’s authoritarian regime, and work through the Organization of American States (OAS) to sanction and suspend Venezuela given its failure to comply with the OAS’ Inter-American Democratic Charter. The United States should work with Colombia, Brazil, Guyana, and nearby Caribbean nations to prepare for a surge in refugees. It should also begin coordinating to help a future receptive government deal with the economic and financial chaos, bringing together the International Monetary Fund (IMF), creditors, and other interested parties to prepare to develop a rescue package and debt restructuring.
  • Americas
    Mexico Plummets in Annual Corruption Rankings
    Transparency International yesterday released its annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) that ranks 176 countries on a scale from zero (highly corrupt) to one-hundred (very clean), based on the opinions of citizens and experts. As in years’ past, Nordic countries fared best. Denmark topped the list (tied with New Zealand), followed by Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland. Ranked worst were Yemen, Syria, North Korea, South Sudan, and Somalia. Regionally, Europe stagnated compared to last year, sub-Saharan Africa progressed unevenly, and Middle Eastern and North African countries saw sharp declines. Most Asia Pacific nations continued to post failing grades (scoring forty points or less). Latin America’s fight against corruption, witnessed in the region’s ongoing headlines and rising number of domestic cases, generally hurt perceptions. Mexico took the biggest hit. Continued revelations of flagrant wrongdoing by numerous governors and other public officials—followed by few investigations or prosecutions—led the nation to plummet twenty-eight places to 123, alongside Honduras and Sierra Leone. After two years of declines, Brazil’s score stabilized, even as the Lava Jato investigations expanded and deepened. This year’s further arrests, prosecutions, and convictions seemed to give some confidence that law enforcement might change things. Argentina’s score improved to its highest in five years, reflecting widespread sentiments that Macri’s government will be cleaner than that of his predecessor, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Scores for Honduras and Guatemala, both suffering from their own corruption scandals, remained roughly even, though their rankings fell relative to others. Though many criticize the index for measuring perceptions rather than realities, the survey remains one of the best indicators of global and regional corruption trends. And as my colleague Matthew Taylor points out, it draws the attention of policymakers, law enforcement and the public—those that will need to come up with actions and solutions if their countries are to change.
  • Mexico
    Mexico Plummets in Annual Corruption Rankings
    Transparency International yesterday released its annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) that ranks 176 countries on a scale from zero (highly corrupt) to one-hundred (very clean), based on the opinions of citizens and experts. As in years’ past, Nordic countries fared best. Denmark topped the list (tied with New Zealand), followed by Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland. Ranked worst were Yemen, Syria, North Korea, South Sudan, and Somalia. Regionally, Europe stagnated compared to last year, sub-Saharan Africa progressed unevenly, and Middle Eastern and North African countries saw sharp declines. Most Asia Pacific nations continued to post failing grades (scoring forty points or less). Latin America’s fight against corruption, witnessed in the region’s ongoing headlines and rising number of domestic cases, generally hurt perceptions. Mexico took the biggest hit. Continued revelations of flagrant wrongdoing by numerous governors and other public officials—followed by few investigations or prosecutions—led the nation to plummet twenty-eight places to 123, alongside Honduras and Sierra Leone. After two years of declines, Brazil’s score stabilized, even as the Lava Jato investigations expanded and deepened. This year’s further arrests, prosecutions, and convictions seemed to give some confidence that law enforcement might change things. Argentina’s score improved to its highest in five years, reflecting widespread sentiments that Macri’s government will be cleaner than that of his predecessor, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Scores for Honduras and Guatemala, both suffering from their own corruption scandals, remained roughly even, though their rankings fell relative to others. Though many criticize the index for measuring perceptions rather than realities, the survey remains one of the best indicators of global and regional corruption trends. And as my colleague Matthew Taylor points out, it draws the attention of policymakers, law enforcement and the public—those that will need to come up with actions and solutions if their countries are to change.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Affordable Housing Crisis in Johannesburg
    In general, the economies of the United States and South Africa are based on the “Washington Consensus” of free markets to encourage economic growth. Both countries are characterized by growing inequality, with South Africa’s GINI coefficient (a measure of inequality) the worst of any large country in the world. Similarly, in some ways, social problems in South Africa resemble those in the United States. However, because South Africa is smaller and poorer than the United States, the issues are clearer. Johannesburg’s affordable housing crisis recalls similar phenomenon in high-cost American cities like New York, San Francisco, or Washington, D.C. But in Johannesburg the housing crisis is starker and more visible. Following the end of apartheid, rural dwellers flocked to South Africa’s cities looking for work. Johannesburg, the center of South Africa’s modern economy, has been a particular magnet. In the late apartheid period, white South Africans abandoned Johannesburg in droves for the suburbs–even the Johannesburg stock exchange moved to suburban Sandton. In the downtown area, crime flourished and there was severe neglect of the housing stock. Much the same pattern could be seen in American cities. Now, Johannesburg is undergoing a wave of gentrification recalling what is underway in newly-popular American neighborhoods. Downtown living in Johannesburg is attractive again, especially among black South Africans with a foot on the ladder into the middle class who need to live close to where they work. Gentrification and urban development by the private sector has long been encouraged by Johannesburg municipal government policy. Gentrification is benefitting the young and employed but is displacing the very poor who had been living in derelict buildings without basic utilities. When the private sector clears derelict buildings for redevelopment of increasingly valuable land, the municipal government steps in to provide housing. Development leads to more government revenue, but it is insufficient to provide the decent housing required by those displaced augmented by continued arrivals by the poor from rural areas or other parts of South Africa. South Africa’s governing African National Congress (ANC) lost control of the municipal government of Johannesburg in the August 2016 local government elections. The city is now governed by a coalition led by the national opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA). The DA is known as the ‘good government’ party, and has been notably successful in Cape Town, which it has controlled since 2006. The future political consequences of the housing crisis for the DA-led coalition government in Johannesburg are unclear. Poor resentment of bad housing may lead to increased votes for the ANC in the next local elections. On the other hand, the city is manifestly growing richer, and many of the very poor do not participate in politics–even to vote. Again the pattern is similar in big American cities.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    After Shift from East to West, Maritime Piracy Remains Threat to U.S. Seafarers and Interests
    This is a guest post by Michael Clyne. Michael is an assistant director at Drum Cussac, a global risk management consultancy. When President Obama took office nearly eight years ago, his first national security test came within one-hundred days, not from al-Qaeda or the self-proclaimed Islamic State, but pirates. It was the rescue of Captain Richard Phillips, the merchant mariner kidnapped aboard U.S. container-ship Maersk Alabama off the Somali coast, which triggered the president’s first known standing order for lethal force. At the time, the Gulf of Aden, which separates the Middle East from East Africa, was the world’s piracy hotspot, spawned from the lawless destitution of lower Somalia. Flash forward a decade, and East Africa’s pirate problem has been largely tamed through a combination of multinational security and development measures. However, rather than receding, the threat has shifted westward to the Gulf of Guinea, where unsecured territorial waters fuse domestic militancy and international piracy. Today, West Africa’s maritime space is precarious, and worsening conditions there could precipitate a similar crisis as a new president takes office. The un-policed Gulf of Guinea waters off West Africa, namely Nigeria, have long overtaken the Gulf of Aden in recorded piracy attacks, endangering American lives and commerce, yet lack the headline-grabbing infamy of Somalia. That could change as Nigerian security offensives increasingly drive criminal networks offshore, causing more brazen attacks that target crew members rather than their cargo or devalued oil. Pirate kidnappings during the first nine months of 2016 more than doubled annual rates for 2015 and 2014, according to IHS Maritime & Trade, driven largely by Gulf of Guinea piracy. 2016 Gulf of Guinea attacks reported by International Maritime Bureau. Unlike the Gulf of Aden where crew members became captives aboard their own vessels, most Gulf of Guinea hostages are transferred onshore, to the Niger Delta, a lawless maze of mangrove swamps where governments have little reach. Within the past three weeks, Nigerian pirates have attacked two product tankers, a supply vessel, hijacked a gunboat, and kidnapped three international crew members; last month, they also attacked a Maersk container-ship, the same line and type as the Phillips hijacking. This trend not only puts crew members in significant danger, but also subjects the shipping industry to high costs, including the dilemma of ransom negotiation. Yet, West Africa’s web of territorial waters and regulations continue to hamper efforts to curtail piracy, precluding continuous military escorts or reliable trading routes as with the Gulf of Aden. In the constricted space that remains, multinational coordination represents the best opportunity to improve maritime security in and around Nigeria. Since his first meeting with President Obama in 2015, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has requested U.S. cooperation in combatting piracy off West Africa, where this month he called for a regional response. It’s in U.S. interest to agree with Mr. Buhari and engage Gulf of Guinea nations in a multinational preventative strategy, rather than a series of bilateral ones or solely interdiction exercises. And since the causes of offshore insecurity are rooted onshore, preventative approaches should address corruption and the other structural West Africa problems which enable piracy. Until then, the specter of piracy might pivot or transform, but not disappear, and return to haunt another administration.
  • North Korea
    Park Geun-hye Nears Her Downfall
    Following weeks of tense political scandal, the South Korean National Assembly voted overwhelmingly by a margin of 234-56 on a motion to impeach President Park Geun-hye today. In late October, the South Korean president was accused of letting Choi Soon-sil, an old family friend who held no political office, have a say in numerous government affairs. News of the scandal led South Korean prosecutors to investigate and brought out hundreds of thousands of South Koreans to the streets of Seoul in protest, calling for Park’s resignation. Now that the people have gotten their way, where does South Korea go from here? With the passage of the impeachment motion, Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-Ahn (a Park appointee) becomes acting president, and the impeachment motion and evidence supporting it must now be considered by South Korea’s nine-justice Constitutional Court, which has 180 days under South Korea’s constitution to render its judgment on the case. If the Constitutional Court rules that the impeachment motion is valid, South Korea’s constitution requires that a presidential election be held to replace Park within sixty days of that decision. The National Assembly’s decision to impeach Park became an inevitable response to public discontent with Park’s unwillingness to resign. The political paralysis that had enveloped governmental decision-making over the past month is likely to continue for at least the next four to eight months. During that time, Acting President Hwang will oversee the administrative functions of government, but will not have a mandate to make decisions on sensitive political matters. South Korea’s immediate prior experience with impeachment occurred in 2004, at which time it took the Constitutional Court sixty-two days to arrive at a decision to overturn the National Assembly’s decision, allowing Roh Moo-hyun to resume his duties as president. The Constitutional Court’s consideration of the Park case will be complicated by a number of factors. First, the terms of two of the nine judges are scheduled to end in January and March of next year; they will not be replaced, and six judges are required to uphold the impeachment motion for it to go forward. Second, the scope of the impeachment motion includes items that are a subject of ongoing investigation by a special prosecutor, and the court may choose to await the conclusion of the investigation prior to weighing the evidence in support of the impeachment motion.  Third, the Constitutional Court will likely face sustained public pressure to uphold the impeachment, given the apparent preponderance of evidence and Park Geun-hye’s low approval rating. While the nation awaits the judgment of the Constitutional Court, public political activities will likely remain paralyzed. The damage done to Park’s Saenuri Party by the scandal is likely to be a catalyst for political realignment as various aspirants maneuver to form coalitions in an attempt to win the presidency at the end of 2017. New parties and new alignments are likely to develop as the main presidential aspirants seek to enhance their chances. One unfortunate aspect is the very short time frame (sixty days from the time the impeachment is upheld) mandated by the Korean constitution to hold the election of a president for a new five-year term. It discourages thorough vetting of potential presidential aspirants while favoring established Korean political figures—which is the opposite of what the country needs. South Korea’s management of both the economy and foreign policy will be hampered by Park’s impeachment until a new president is elected. The country’s political paralysis makes it potentially more vulnerable to North Korean provocations, but the situation also makes it more likely that the Korean public would expect a strong response to any attempt to take undue advantage of South Korea’s political crisis. The close military relationship between the United States and South Korea provides an additional source of support, but South Korea’s vulnerability and North Korea’s propensity to test new American political leaders makes the peninsula a particularly vulnerable flashpoint in the transition to an untested Trump administration. A version of this post originally appeared on Forbes.com.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    S&P Leaves South Africa’s Bond Rating Unchanged
    Standard & Poor (S&P), the international credit rating agency, left its assessment of South Africa’s foreign-currency debt unchanged. It remains at the same level as Italy’s and India’s. However, it did lower South Africa’s local-currency rating, which remains above “junk.” On the S&P news, the South African currency, the Rand, rose 1.6 percent against the U.S. dollar, and yields of rand-denominated government bonds fell nine basis points to 9.02 percent. S&P warned that Zuma government interference in economic reform could damage investor confidence, affect exchange rates, and lead to a future downgrade: “Political events have distracted from, growth-enhancing reforms, while low GDP growth continues to affect South Africa’s economic and fiscal performance and overall debt stock.” Within the governing African National Congress (ANC), there is a struggle over the successor to Jacob Zuma, who must step down as party leader by December 2017, and the future direction the party will take. The party has been roiled by credible charges of corruption involving the Gupta brothers, confidants of the president. An S&P downgrade of South African debt to “junk” status had been widely anticipated, and such a move could have provided the occasion and excuse for President Jacob Zuma to reshuffle his cabinet and remove the highly regarded Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. Gordhan is usually numbered with those ministers that are seeking Zuma’s ouster by the party, the most recent failed effort being within the ANC National Executive Committee on December 3 and 4. The S&P move is probably contrary to Zuma’s goal of restoring his power within the party and strengthens the hand of the “reformers” within the cabinet. Nevertheless, Zuma as president retains the power to remove Gordhan, though should he do so the markets would react badly.
  • United States
    Michel Temer’s Shrinking Presidency
    When he officially became president three months ago, Michel Temer’s game plan was simple and bold: in the roughly eighteen months before the 2018 presidential campaign ramped up, he would undertake a variety of legislative reforms that would put the government’s accounts back on track, enhance investor confidence, stimulate an economic recovery, and possibly set the stage for a center-right presidential bid (if not by Temer himself, at least by a close ally). Temer’s band of advisors—Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) stalwarts and long-time Brasília hands Romero Jucá, Geddel Vieira Lima, Eliseu Padilha, and Moreira Franco—would ensure that he had the backing of Congress to push through reforms that might not bring immediate returns, but nonetheless might improve investor confidence, prompting new investments in the short term. Sotto voce, many politicians also assumed that the PMDB—which has been an integral player in every government since the return to democracy in 1985—would be well placed to slow the pace of the bloodletting occasioned by the massive Lava Jato investigation and stabilize the political system. This game plan appears to be running into a variety of self-inflicted troubles that will force the famously elastic Temer into difficult choices between his party and an angry public. Last week, the public’s worst suspicions of the PMDB-led government were confirmed in a two-bit scandal that claimed government secretary Geddel Vieira Lima. Vieira Lima fell on November 25 because of a petty effort to bring political pressure to bear on a historical registry office that had been holding up construction of a Salvador building in which he had purchased an apartment. More shocking, perhaps, was that the preternaturally cautious Temer helped Vieira Lima to exert pressure on the minister of culture whose office oversees the registry. The minister resigned, Vieira Lima fell, and Temer was left looking smaller than ever—a dangerous spot for a president whose legitimacy is already suspect. Temer sought to repair the damage by holding an unusual press conference Sunday in which he promised to veto a proposed congressional amnesty of illegal campaign contributions. But Temer now faces another important ethical fork in the road: how to respond to the remarkable chutzpah of the Chamber of Deputies, which moved in the early morning hours of November 30 to neuter anticorruption reforms and prevent judicial “abuses,” a move widely seen as an effort to intimidate judges and prosecutors. The severely mangled anticorruption reform, bearing little semblance to the original draft, now heads to the Senate, which seems unlikely to repair the damage, and indeed, may further distort the bill in an effort to undermine Temer’s ability to resurrect the reforms through selective vetoes. The reform package had been a poster child for the prosecutors that are spearheading the Lava Jato investigation, and it was pushed onto the legislative agenda in a petition drive that gathered more than two million signatures. Widespread grief over the Chapocoense tragedy may temporarily blunt public reaction to this bold late night maneuver, which was only possible because it had support from across the political spectrum, including the Workers’ Party (PT) of impeached president Dilma Rousseff, the clientelist Progressive Party (PP), and of course, members of the governing PMDB. But the public is fed up with politics as usual, and it does not take a leap of imagination to imagine that sporadically brewing public demonstrations might easily tip into a broad groundswell against the self-serving political class. Meanwhile, Lava Jato continues to cast a long shadow, and the possibility that a deal may soon be signed between the Odebrecht construction firm and Brazilian, Swiss, and U.S. authorities has caused many a sleepless night in Congress. Press reports suggest that this may be the largest deal ever announced, surpassing even the US$1.6 billion in penalties that Siemens paid to U.S. and European authorities for worldwide corruption in 2008. The possibility that nearly eighty Odebrecht executives might sign individual plea bargains, and reports that as many as two hundred federal politicians may be implicated, suggests that the Congress could soon be paralyzed. Meanwhile, the PMDB’s motley crew has been decimated, undermining Temer’s ability to coordinate with Congress: Geddel Vieira Lima has resigned; Romero Jucá was driven out of the Planning Ministry soon after he was appointed in May (when wiretaps caught him discussing efforts to slow down Lava Jato); the high court this week is expected to take up a criminal case against Senate President Renan Calheiros (for allowing a construction firm to pay childcare to a mistress); impeachment impresario Eduardo Cunha is in jail; and Eliseu Padilha and Moreira Franco are frequently rumored to be next in the Lava Jato crosshairs. Despite some initial success on fiscal reform, the appointment of solid and credible managers to key positions in state companies and ministries, and important regulatory changes intended to attract new investment, the outlook for the remainder of the Temer term remains grim. Economic forecasts now show economic growth of less than 1 percent in 2017. The budget situation of the twenty-six state governments is critical, and politically influential governors are begging for federal help. A much-needed pension reform promised by Temer has not yet been made public, much less begun the tortuous amendment process in Congress. Temer increasingly is being forced into a choice between helping his legislative allies and achieving economic reform, or satisfying a public that is baying for accountability and a political cleanup. It will take all of Temer’s considerable political skills and knowledge of backroom Brasília to revise his game plan for these challenging times.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    A Reminder that South Africa’s Ruling Party is Multiracial
    Minister of Tourism Derek Hanekom appears to have been the initiator of the African National Congress’s (ANC) November 27-29 in-house debate over whether to recall Jacob Zuma as party leader. (Zuma survived, but is further weakened politically within the ANC by the episode.) Hanekom, who is white, is a useful reminder that the ANC remains a multi-racial party, though its electoral base is overwhelmingly black. In the aftermath of the ANC’s Zuma debate, some black political officials that backed the president accused Hanekom of “racism,” but others defended him as a full member of the movement, even though he is white. Hanekom and his wife were imprisoned for three years under apartheid. In the post-apartheid Mandela government, he was minister of agriculture (he was a farmer). Subsequently, he has held numerous positions in the ANC government, including minister of science and technology. He has been minister of tourism since 2014. He is at the very center of the ANC party power structure, and he has served on the National Executive Committee, its highest governing body, since 1994. He was the chair of the party’s National Disciplinary Committee that in 2012 was instrumental in the expulsion of bad-boy Julius Malema, who went on to found the Economic Freedom Fighters, a party that now challenges the ANC from the left. He also reflects the liberal social and democratic views of the Mandela generation. For example, in April 2016, he was the keynote speaker at the global convention of the International Gay and Lesbian Travel Association in Cape Town. There he said, “There is a huge economic value in LGBT tourism and it can help our country to get more visitors to come and stay here and spend money in our restaurants and accommodation. We have to change attitudes and break down stereotypes.” Diversity within the ANC extends to policy as well as ethnicity. South Africa is the only African country that permits gay marriage, the result of a court case based on the country’s constitution. Though it and a gay lifestyle is deeply unpopular with the party’s base, the ANC has made no move to amend the constitution to prohibit it.
  • Americas
    This Week in Markets and Democracy: Duterte Targets Critic, China’s Trade Ambitions, FCPA Uncertainty
    Philippines’ Duterte Tries to Take Down Critic Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte brooks no dissent. His latest backlash is against one of his most outspoken critics, Senator Leila de Lima. After she opened an inquiry into Duterte’s role in killings while he was a mayor, and urged the international community to investigate the over 1,500 alleged extrajudicial killings during his first four months in office, the president’s Senate allies ejected her as chair of the Justice Committee. The government is now accusing her of drug trafficking, bribery, and graft. If the case moves forward, De Lima could face up to thirty years in prison—effectively silencing Duterte’s opposition. Can Mercantilist China Lead on Global Trade? With the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) dead, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will lead the agenda at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru this weekend. The China-led alternative includes ten Southeast Asian countries as well as Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand, roughly 28 percent of world gross domestic product. As trade deals go it is limited—focusing mainly on lowering tariffs. And one of the countries with the highest barriers is China itself, which levies taxes on everything from imported toys to computers, alongside strong “buy-national” policies, and favored financing for its own companies. Those looking for strong leadership against rising protectionism will likely be disappointed. Future of the FCPA in Question In 2016 the United States used the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) to bring civil or criminal penalties against a record twenty-three companies, slapping them with fines totaling over $1 billion. The latest came this week as J.P. Morgan Chase agreed to pay U.S. authorities $264 million for a “systematic bribing scheme” involving hiring the children of China’s elite to win business. These ramped-up U.S. anticorruption efforts of the past decade are now in question, and anticorruption scholars differ on the future. Harvard’s Matthew Stephenson expects the end of FCPA and the fledgling Kleptocracy Asset Recovery Initiative as we know them. Others are cautiously optimistic, assuming companies’ self-reported cases, which make up half of FCPA actions, to continue. U.S. multilateral leadership, through the OECD, the United Nations, the G20, and other international anticorruption forums, is also at stake.