Palestinian Territories

With all the important news going on in the Middle East this past week, Al Jazeera took time out to remind its audience that Yasser Arafat is still dead. It has been nine years since the Palestinian leader passed away in a French hospital, yet Abu Ammar is still making news, of sorts.  This week a Swiss investigative team reported that there are indications that Arafat was poisoned with polonium, yet others who took part in the examination of the remains and soil samples around the man’s grave at the Muqata’a in Ramallah have not been so definitive nor willing to release their findings.  Sounds suspicious. The suspicions surrounding his death were not so much because  he fell ill after eating dinner one evening as some media reports suggest—the Palestinian leader’s health had been failing for some time—or the fact that he had taken a turn for the worse and was suddenly flown to France for treatment, but rather because of what happened while Arafat lay dying in the Percy military hospital near Paris.  If memory serves me correctly, there was a struggle between Suha and the Palestinian leadership over the disposition of large amounts of money.  Mrs. Arafat believed she was entitled to it whereas Abu Ammar’s subordinates disagreed.  More mysterious was the fact that in deference to his wife, there was no autopsy conducted on Arafat.  The official cause of death was a stroke, but without an autopsy accusations soon surfaced about an assassination—usually fingering the Israelis—and counter-charges from mostly Israel’s supporters in the West that Arafat had died of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, better known as AIDS, associated with intravenous drug users and gay men. Both accounts seem dubious.  It is true that the Israelis had means and motive, but they apparently had a number of previous opportunities to bump off Arafat—during the 1982 invasion of Lebanon for example and again when the Israelis re-invaded the West Bank in the spring of 2002—and chose not to.  Why bother in the autumn of 2004?  By then it was clear that Arafat was not likely to live much longer.  It is true that the Israelis are the obvious suspects if Arafat was indeed murdered, but in the thirty-five years between the time he took control of the PLO and his death, the man made more than a few enemies.  It seems that besides the Israelis an obvious place to start looking for the perpetrators of the alleged crime would be within the Palestinian leadership itself.  Of course Al Jazeera would not be playing up the story if it did not think it would end with Israel. As for the accusations that Arafat died of AIDS, no physician or investigator has ever offered any credible evidence for this claim.  The suggestion that Arafat was gay and thus succumbed to AIDS rather than being poisoned was part of a political strategy not only to deflect allegations of murder, but also to delegitimize the man who was a hero to many (and the personification of evil to many others).  As an aside, I have no idea whether Arafat was gay, but using his sexual orientation (real or alleged) in this way is despicable even for those who loathed the man. I assume a lot of people—mostly outside the Middle East— will be interested in where the Arafat story now takes us.  After running through the highlights of the story last week, Rachel Maddow of MSNBC suggested that her loyal fans “watch this space.”  Setting the story straight on Yasser Arafat’s death is important for the historical record, though I suspect that the folks driving the story would never ever settle for the idea that an old, sick man just happened to die like old sick men tend to do. Let’s assume, however, that Arafat was murdered and the Mossad was responsible, then what?  Although it would add to the long list of Palestinian grievances, it would do nothing—absolutely nothing—to advance Palestinian national goals.  Almost a decade after the fact, Arafat’s death is a sideshow and while people will be watching the space to find out who killed him, the conflict will unfortunately grind on.

Significant Developments Iran. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and EU negotiator Catherine Ashton issued a joint statement yesterday, following talks between the P5+1 countries and Iran, announcing that further talks would continue on November 7 in Geneva.  Zarif presented a new Iranian proposal this week which deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqachi claimed allows for Iran possibly accepting the NPT’s additional protocol permitting surprise inspections by the International Atomic Energy Association. While Iran has yet to agree to suspend its nuclear program—a requirement for the United States to lift crippling sanctions—White House spokesperson Jay Carney said that the Iranian proposal “represents a level of seriousness and substance we have not seen before.” Araqachi voiced disappointment on Sunday that the talks had not moved to the level of foreign minister, a reference to U.S. secretary of state John Kerry’s absence from this week’s negotiations. Syria. Speaking from Moscow today, Syrian deputy prime minister Qadri Jamil announced that the proposed Geneva II talks will take place November 23-24. Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson Alexander Lukashevich responded within hours, saying that, “We shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves.” On Sunday, George Sabra, the president of the Syrian National Council (SNC), the largest bloc within the Syrian Opposition Coalition, announced that SNC would not attend the Geneva conference and would not participate in negotiations until Bashar al-Assad’s regime falls. Sabra confirmed that the SNC would not stay in the coalition if it participates in Geneva. Meanwhile, a video released by Syrian rebels on Wednesday announced that a total of seventy groups have now withdrawn their support from the opposition coalition. The opposition has grown increasingly fractured in recent months as the exile leadership has experienced difficulties procuring weapons and aid. A spokesperson for the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) announced today that eleven out of twenty sites declared by the Syrian government had been verified and that weapons and equipment at six of them had been destroyed. However, a series of car bombs and mortar attacks in the areas surrounding the inspectors’ hotel has raised concerns about the safety of the mission. In an unrelated attack today, rebel forces killed Major General Jamaa Jamaa, the provincial head of intelligence in Deir Ezzor. Jamaa was a top Syrian official in Lebanon during the Syrian occupation who had been questioned over the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Harriri. Egypt. Egypt’s interim president, Adly Mansour, drew criticism on Wednesday over a new law under consideration that would severely limit the size, location, and duration of any protest in the country. The Muslim Brotherhood has called for renewed protests against the military following Friday prayers. The military continues to face a creeping insurgency in Sinai where troops were moved on Sunday following intelligence reports that recently discovered tunnels would be used to carry out attacks. Meanwhile, the family of deposed President Mohammed Morsi said Sunday that he will not enter any negotiations or make any concessions. U.S. Foreign Policy UAE-Saudi Arabia. The Pentagon announced yesterday that it is preparing to sell $10.8 billion of military hardware to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The sale includes one thousand “bunker buster” bombs to Saudi Arabia and five thousand to the UAE. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) released two statements yesterday detailing the deals, noting that Saudi Arabia has requested $6.8 billion in munitions and equipment and the UAE has requested $4 billion worth of military hardware. The DSCA noted that, “the UAE continues host-nation support of vital US forces stationed at Al Dhafra Air Base and plays a vital role in supporting US regional interests...This proposed sale will improve the UAE’s military readiness and capabilities to meet current and future regional threats, reduce the dependence on U.S. forces in the region, and enhance any coalition operations the United States may undertake.” Egypt. Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy said Wednesday that the U.S.-Egyptian relationship is in a state of “turmoil.” Fahmy’s remarks followed last week’s decision by the United States to drawdown military aid to Egypt in response to the violent repression of the Muslim Brotherhood. While We Were Looking Elsewhere: Israel. In a speech to the Knesset Tuesday afternoon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that it would be a “historic mistake” to take pressure off of Iran now and said Israel would not rule out a preventative strike. On Tuesday, the Israeli security cabinet issued a statement calling for continued sanctions against Iran given the advanced stages of their nuclear program, despite the talks in Geneva. Also on Tuesday, Israeli military officials discovered and destroyed another tunnel connecting the Gaza strip and Israel. It follows Sunday’s finding of a lengthy one mile underground tunnel connecting Gaza to a Kibbutz in Israeli. A spokesman for the Israeli military claimed the tunnels could be used to carry out attacks in Israel; government officials announced Israel would suspend the shipment of construction materials to the private sector in Gaza. Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia was elected today to its first ever two-year term on the United Nations Security Council. Abdullah al-Muallimi, the Saudi ambassador to the UN, said that, “Our election today is a reflection of a long standing policy in support of moderation and in support of resolving disputes through peaceful means.” Saudi Arabia, and the four other new members, will assume its seat on January 1. Lebanon. A car bomb containing fifty kilograms of explosives was discovered and successfully disarmed by Lebanese authorities in a southern suburb of Beirut on Tuesday. Recent attacks against pro-Hezbollah areas of Lebanon have drawn increasing concern about spillover from the conflict in Syria. On Monday, videos were released of two Turkish Airlines pilots who have been held hostage in Lebanon since August; both appeared to be in good health. They are being held by a group known as Zuwwar al-Imam Ali al-Reda, which is demanding the release of nine Shiite pilgrims being held in Syria. Iraq. Government officials announced Thursday that Iraq will begin receiving military aid from Russia as part of recently revived $4.3 billion arms deal that was scuttled last year amid corruption allegations. Meanwhile, a new study released this week estimates that approximately 461,000 Iraqis have died as a result of Iraq’s war. The casualty count includes not only battle related deaths, but the ensuing insurgency and “avoidable deaths,” such as those caused by collapsing infrastructure. Attacks on Thursday and Tuesday left more than 60 people dead and dozens more wounded across the country. Turkey. The European Commission called on Wednesday for renewed debate on Turkey’s long-stalled membership request. While issues have been raised regarding Cyprus and government crackdowns on protestors, EU governments will discuss the commission’s report on October 22 and could begin talks with Turkey as early as November. For the first time, on Tuesday, the Turkish military specifically targeted jihadist sites in Syria with artillery in response to a mortar attack by the al-Qaeda group, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). This Week in History This week marks the fortieth anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In response to the United States’ massive airlift of military equipment to Israel during the Yom Kippur/October War, OPEC imposed an embargo on shipments of oil to the United States and all countries that had supported Israel. Prices rose by 70 percent initially, though they eventually rose by an additional 130 percent with the price of oil per barrel going from $3 to $12. The ensuing years of U.S. stagflation and the fear of dependence on foreign oil brought about radical changes in U.S. energy policy, fuel efficiency standards, and touched off a wave of expanded oil exploration the world over. In March 1974, OPEC lifted the embargo that greatly enriched a number of gulf countries.

At the end of May 2010, Israel seized control of a ship called the Mavi Marmara as it approached Gaza. It intended to violate Israel’s blockade of Gaza, which is meant to stop weapons from reaching Hamas; the ships carried no humanitarian cargo. Israel stopped the ship, but the incident did Hamas some good: the violence and the publicity increased pressure on Israel to loosen the terms of  the blockade. Already in 2009 Pope Benedict had offered his prayers that the embargo would be lifted so that reconstruction could move faster, and in March 2010 Ban Ki-Moon had said that the Gaza blockade was causing “unacceptable suffering.” On June 1, the day after the ship was seized, Secretary of State Clinton said "the situation in Gaza is unsustainable and unacceptable... Palestinians’ legitimate needs for... regular access for reconstruction materials must... be assured.” She pressed Israeli officials to allow more building materials to enter Gaza, as did British Foreign Secretary William Hague. Former President Carter visited Gaza two weeks later and said the embargo causes "death, destruction, pain and suffering to the people here." The Quartet called “for a lifting of the blockade on Gaza so that crucial reconstruction work can take place….” And this was the trope from virtually every EU government. And so the cement flowed; Israel lifted its ban.  But now it turns out that what was being constructed by Hamas in Gaza was not an economy, not houses or public buildings, but tunnels whose purpose was to permit terrorist attacks into Israel. Most recently, Israel discovered a great project: a tunnel 60 feet deep and 1.5 miles long. Construction appears to have been started two years ago—after cement began to flow into Gaza. As the AP reported, “Concrete walls and arches lined the tunnel and electrical cords could be seen along its walls….The military said it was the third tunnel found along the Gaza border fence in the past year. It estimated that 500 tons of cement and concrete were used, and the structure took more than a year to build.” Hamas has now admitted building the tunnel and claims that its goal was to permit the kidnapping of Israel soldiers, as The Times of Israel reported: The tunnel…was meant to facilitate a complex terror attack involving an assault on soldiers or civilians, with the intention of seizing a captive Israeli and holding him or her as a bargaining chip. Senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk confirmed as much on Tuesday, two days after Israeli authorities revealed their discovery. “The tunnel which was revealed was extremely costly in terms of money, effort and blood,” Abu Marzouk wrote on his Facebook page. “All of this is meaningless when it comes to freeing our heroic prisoners.” He went on to detail the lucrative nature of the Gilad Shalit deal, in which 1,027 prisoners were released after the Israeli soldier was kidnapped in just such an attack. What’s interesting here is not Hamas acting as Hamas always does: as a terrorist group that is uninterested in the welfare of the people of Gaza. What’s interesting is the number of proponents of lifting the blockade of Gaza who have now admitted error. The number appears to be zero. Not one has acknowledged that allowing construction materials into Gaza allowed Hamas to construct more tunnels, and that Israel may have been right to prevent their arrival. Being a critic of Israel apparently means never having to say you’re sorry.    

World leaders converged at the United Nations this week for the sixty-eighth session of the General Assembly. The Middle East was well represented, with numerous heads of states and governments attending from across the region. Middle East Matters has excerpted remarks from Middle Eastern leaders who spoke from the General Assembly’s rostrum this week. The debate concludes next Tuesday. President Abdullah Gul, Turkey: On Syria: “Were it not for the use of chemical weapons, would the international community have continued to turn a blind eye to the deaths of more than a hundred thousand people? For how long can we afford to evade our moral responsibility to the people being killed even as we speak? This conflict neither began with the use of chemical weapons nor will it end with an agreement to eliminate them. We therefore bluntly reject any position that is not troubled by the killing of innocent people in itself, but only by the means of such killing. Such an approach is immoral and totally unacceptable.” On Syria and the United Nations Security Council: “It is a disgrace that the United Nations Security Council has failed to uphold its primary responsibility in this case. It is deeply regrettable that political differences, balance-of-power politics, and geopolitical considerations have prevailed over the imperative to end this tragedy.” King Abdullah II, Jordan: On regional issues: “Our region can be, must be, a House of Peace and Prosperity…But no house can be built when its city is burning.” On Syria: “The Syrian crisis is a global humanitarian and security disaster. Escalating violence threatens to hollow-out the rest of that country’s economic and political future.” “The flow of Syrian refugees in Jordan already equals one-tenth of our own population. It could reach one million, some 20% of our population, by next year. These are not just numbers; they are people, who need food, water, shelter, sanitation, electricity, health care and more. Not even the strongest global economies could absorb this demand on infrastructure and resources, let alone a small economy and the fourth water-poorest country in the world.” Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, Qatar: On Syria: “The Syrian people has not risen up for putting the Syrian chemical weapons under the international supervision but for getting rid of despotism and corruption and to end the injustice it has been facing.” On the United Nations Security Council: “We all know that the responsibility for failure to impose the political settlement we all prefer for Syria is due basically to the inability of the Security Council to take the required decision to stop the bloodshed and continued intransigence of the Syrian regime and its refusal of all regional and international initiatives. From this perspective, the decision-making process at the Security Council has become in need of change since it lacks fairness and objectivity.” On Palestine: “The organizations of the international community have been established on the basis of granting the right of self-determination after the world wars. And it is unreasonable that they could not do anything about the last colonial issue of our world.” President Hassan Rouhani, Iran: On Iran’s nuclear program: “Iran’s nuclear program…must pursue exclusively peaceful purposes. I declare here, openly and unambiguously, that, notwithstanding the positions of others, this has been, and will always be, the objective of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Nuclear weapon and other weapons of mass destruction have no place in Iran’s security and defense doctrine, and contradict our fundamental religious and ethical convictions.” “The Islamic Republic of Iran, insisting on the implementation of its rights and the imperative of international respect and cooperation in this exercise, is prepared to engage immediately in time-bound and result-oriented talks to build mutual confidence and removal of mutual uncertainties with full transparency.” On sanctions and international engagement: “Unjust sanctions…are intrinsically inhumane and against peace. And contrary to the claims of those who pursue and impose them, it is not the states and the political elite that are targeted, but rather, it is the common people who are victimized by these sanctions.” “[T]hose who harp on the so called threat of Iran are either a threat against international peace and security themselves or promote such a threat. Iran poses absolutely no threat to the world or the region.” On Syria: “Pursuit of expansionist strategies and objectives and attempts to change the regional balance through proxies cannot be camouflaged behind humanitarian rhetoric. The common objective of the international community should be a quick end to the killing of the innocent.” President Michel Sleiman, Lebanon: On Syria: “As for the most pressing and biggest burden, which has begun to take an existential dimension, it derives from an unprecedented increase in the numbers of incoming refugees from Syria, way beyond Lebanon’s capacity of assimilation, exceeding one fourth of Lebanon’s population.” “The Lebanese must also revert to their commitment to the ‘Baabda Declaration’ which sets out Lebanon’s disassociation from the negative fallout of the regional crises and the policy of axes...” On Palestine: “As for the main challenge, it still derives from the repercussions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, the persistence of the Israeli occupation and oppressive practices, as well as Israel’s attempt to establish more illegal settlements, and Judaize the city of Jerusalem (Al-Quds), and the failure of the international community to find a just and comprehensive solution for all the aspects of this conflict, especially with the subsequent Refugee problem in the neighboring host countries, in particular Lebanon, the enhanced sense of injustice and tendency for extremism and violence, and the resulting human and material losses that have hindered the projects of economic and social progress throughout the Arab nation.” Prime Minister Sheikh Jaber al-Mubarak al-Hamad al-Sabah, Kuwait: On Iran’s nuclear program: “[T]he state of Kuwait supports the ongoing efforts to peacefully resolve this issue in a manner that will preserve the right of the Islamic Republic of Iran and all the countries in the region, to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes under the supervision and monitoring of the International Atomic Energy Agency.” On Palestine: “We value in this respect the ongoing efforts of the United States of America to achieve a breakthrough in the peace process, hoping that persistent efforts and pressure on Israel will make it accept the resolutions of international legitimacy.” On relations with Iraq: “Through communications at the highest level between the leaderships of both countries, our bilateral relations have developed positively and tangibly by overcoming past differences between the two countries, and looking forward to strengthen and develop future bilateral relations for the welfare and interest of the peoples of both countries.” Prime Minister Ali Zeidan, Libya: On Libya: “The constituent body election law to draft a permanent constitution issued by the National Congress on July 20, 2013 is another step to accomplish the most important National agenda items, towards the formulation and adoption of a permanent constitution for Libya that would end a difficult transitional period the country is currently experiencing, with some security incidents and breaches occurring from time to time, that the official authorities are addressing with the available potentials.” On Palestine: “The time has now come for the international community to assume its responsibilities to end this tragedy as soon as possible, by taking urgent and decisive actions to ensure the full protection of the Palestinians, and to stop the daily suffering and relieve the injustice through comprehensive solution to the Palestinian issue that would remove the occupation and enable the Palestinian people to restore their territory and establish their own independent Palestinian state with Al-Quds as its capital, and the return of all Palestinian refugees to their homes, according to the relevant international resolutions.” On Syria: “We reiterate our call to the UN Security Council to act in accordance with the concept of the Responsibility to Protect, in order to find a solution to the problem, through consensus among its members, to save the Syrian people from daily massacres and help in achieving their legitimate demands.” President Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine: On Palestine: “I am honored to address you today, and for the first time in the name of the State of Palestine, before the United Nations General Assembly, after your historic decision last 29 November to raise Palestine’s status to that of an observer State.” “The objective of the negotiations is to secure a lasting peace accord that leads immediately to the establishment of the independence of a fully sovereign State of Palestine, with East Jerusalem as its capital, on all of the Palestinian lands occupied in 1967, so that it may live in peace and security alongside the State of Israel, and the resolution of the plight of Palestine refugees in a just agreed upon solution according to United Nations resolution 194, as called for by the Arab Peace Initiative.” “Here we reaffirm that we refuse to enter into a vortex of a new interim agreement that becomes eternalized, or to enter into transitional arrangements that will become a fixed rule rather than an urgent exception. Our objective is to achieve a permanent and comprehensive agreement and a peace treaty between the States of Palestine and Israel that resolves all outstanding issues and answers all questions, which allows us to officially declare and end of conflict and claims.” “History teaches us – and it is the best teacher – that waging war, occupation, settlements and walls may provide temporary quiet and a momentary domination, but they certainly do not ensure real security nor guarantee a sustainable peace.” “Let us work to make the culture of peace reign, to tear down walls, to build bridges instead of walls, to open wide roads for connection and communication. Let us sow the seeds of good neighborliness. Let us envision another future that the children of Palestine and of Israel enjoy with peace and security, and where they can dream and realize their dreams, a future that allows Muslims, Christians and Jews to freely reach places of worship; and a future in which Israel will gain the recognition of fifty-seven Arab and Muslim countries and where the States of Palestine and Israel will coexist in peace, in order to realize each people’s hopes for progress and prosperity.” “The Palestinian people do not want to remain "out of place" in the words of Edward Said. Our people wait for a day when its cause ceases to be a fixed item on the agenda of the United Nations. Our people want to have freedom, God’s gift to humanity, and to enjoy the grace of living an ordinary life.” Vice President Khudheir Mussa Al-Khuzaie, Iraq On Syria: “[W]e in Iraq, whose people suffered tremendously from the horrors of war caused by the recklessness and follies of the defunct Saddam regime, are deeply concerned by the worsening events and tense situation on our borders with Syria, a country with which we have over 600 km long borders. This is why we consider the Syrian conflict a serious threat to our security, stability and the integrity of our land and people.” On regional issues: “[N]o pre or post 2015 sustainable development is attainable with the existence of organized terrorism thriving on the bloodshed of innocent people as it claims their lives. This scourge has adopted extremism as its approach, death as its craft, violence as its means, hatred as its culture and senseless and indiscriminate murder as its hobby.” On relations with Kuwait: “Iraq suffered for more than two decades from international sanctions because of the invasion of the State of Kuwait by the former regime, however the new Iraq has managed, through its cooperation with the international community on the one hand and through the development of its brotherly relations with the neighboring State of Kuwait, to overcome the effects of the sanctions and work together with UN Security Council...” “Today, we look forward together to build the present to be a springboard and a solid foundation for a prosperous future for the generations that will reflect its positive effects on the entire region.”  

Mumbai, India—A few nights ago, I had the opportunity to speak about the Middle East at an interfaith forum in Chennai.  India is not without its sectarian problems and periodic spasms of terrible religion-inspired violence, but the country’s well-deserved reputation for spirituality seems to take the edge off on a daily basis.  For that reason, I was looking forward to the interfaith dialogue.  This is a country of six major religions, and though 80 percent are Hindus, departments of Religious Studies at Indian universities teach about Hinduism, Islam, Christianity, Jainism, Sikhism, and Buddhism.  That’s not all, of course.  Another almost 7 million people adhere to a variety of other religions.  The interfaith forum provided an opportunity for me to see how the Indians make it all work.  I was imagining a lot of Namaste (a hard to translate expression of reverence and respect). The rangoli—a symbolic offering to Hindu gods—just outside the building where the dialogue was taking place only heightened my expectations about how the evening would unfold. The event started off well-enough with the director of the center giving a “Moon is in the 7th House—all religions teach love—peace is our destiny” oration that in a previous era inspired a generation of hippies. I decided to ditch my standard U.S. policy talk and go with the general vibe in the room with remarks about the theological commonalities of Islam, Christianity, and Judaism; inspirational moments of inter-faith cooperation in the Middle East; and the way in which political groups have often hijacked religion to pursue malevolent agendas.  I was feeling pretty good about all this and then the questions began.  Just twenty minutes earlier we were all brothers and sisters seeking a meaningful life and then suddenly we weren’t.  The combination of the Obama administration’s brief flirtation with military operations against Syria and the Palestinian issue put me directly in the crosshairs of some folks who quite clearly overlooked the good fellowship and brother/sisterhood of the earlier proceedings. For most of the remainder of the evening, I parried question after question about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.  Many of the questions began with Syria, raised doubts about U.S. claims regarding the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons, and ended by demanding to know “Why the United States is attacking Syria, but does nothing about Israel?”  I did my best to disentangle the issues, remind folks that the United States has chosen not to use force in Syria, clarify the American position on Israel and Palestine, and readily acknowledge critiques of U.S. policy.  I am afraid I failed to expand too many minds. By the end of the evening one woman informed me that the United States is responsible for violence around the world (to applause) and an older gentleman offered that I was nothing more than an American propagandist (also to applause). The interfaith meeting in Chennai was not the first time this happened over the last week.  In New Delhi, an Urdu-language television journalist began an interview by asking questions about Syria, but quickly shifted into browbeating me on Palestine.  At a far more pleasant dinner encounter with community leaders in Lucknow, I was repeatedly told that the U.S. position on Syria was invalid because of Washington’s support for Israel.  If it is any consolation, the people who were so eager to express their outrage over Israel seemed equally hostile to Saudi Arabia and Washington’s relationship with Riyadh.  In the most bizarre moment of the last week, two journalists in Lucknow asked me why Hillary Clinton supports Wahabbism.  When I asked them wherever they got this idea, they looked at me like I was crazy and said, “It’s on YouTube.” It is easy to dismiss these sentiments as the idle chatter of the press, the ill-informed, intellectuals who are in general predisposed to be hostile toward the United States, and assorted others without much in the way of influence.  After all, despite these complaints, relations between Washington and New Delhi are improving and the ties between India and Israel have developed markedly over the last decade.  Still, it is interesting (and a bit distressing) that in a country that is so inward looking and where the leading newspapers pay scant (if any) attention to world affairs some seem to view the United States through only the prism of Palestine.  I got the sense that the people most exercised about military intervention in Syria and Palestine do not actually care all that much about Syrians or Palestinians, but rather saw both issues as an opportunity to express a deep seated anger at Washington.  This is not to suggest that the anger is not rational.  The United States has made plenty of mistakes in the Muslim world, but it is hard to argue that this resentment is a function of Muslim solidarity with fellow Muslims in distress. In the Syrian case, at least, Muslims are killing Muslims with Russian help. My friends at the American embassy and its consulates, good diplomats that they are, argue that my experience is more reason to continue to “engage” with the broadest sections of Indian society.  I suppose so, but they have a very long, steep hill to climb with some sections of the Indian public.  I wish them luck. In the meantime, Santi (peace).

Syria. Diplomats in New York appeared stymied in their efforts to craft a new United Nations Security resolution calling for the removal of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal. The Security Council began discussing a resolution on Tuesday to support last weekend’s U.S.-Russia deal that called for Syria to account for its chemical weapons within one week and for the destruction of its entire arsenal by mid-2014; members are divided over whether or not to include the threat of sanctions or force. Last Saturday, Secretary of State Kerry said, “We agreed that Syria must submit within a week – not in 30 days, but in one week -- a comprehensive listing.” Yesterday, however, State Department spokeswoman Marie Hard said that, “We’ve never said it was a hard and fast deadline.” Russian president Vladimir Putin reiterated his suggestion today that the chemical weapons use in Syria had been carried out by the opposition, saying, “We have every reason to believe it was a cunning provocation.” Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Russia will present evidence to the UN Security Council of chemical weapons use by the Syrian opposition, while one of his deputies called the recently released report from the UN chemical weapons experts “distorted.” Syrian president Bashar al-Assad appeared today in an interview with Fox News and said that Syria could make the chemical weapons sites accessible to international experts “tomorrow,” but that he has heard the process of destroying the weapons will take approximately one year. Egypt. Egyptian security forces engaged in a deadly firefight today with armed supporters of deposed president Mohamed Morsi in Kerdasa, just outside Cairo. Police general Nabil Farrag was shot to death, with his forces arresting at least fifty suspected militants. Egyptian state television announced today that the curfew imposed on August 14 will begin an hour later (midnight) and be lifted and hour earlier (5 am) starting on Saturday. Meanwhile, one of Morsi’s lawyers said yesterday that the ousted president spoke with his family by telephone last week for the first time since he was detained by the Egyptian military in July. U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. White House spokesman Jay Carney said yesterday that President Barack Obama’s confidential letter to Iranian president Hassan Rouhani declared the United States’ readiness to resolve the nuclear dispute with Iran in a way “allows Iran to demonstrate that its nuclear program is for exclusively peaceful purpose.” Obama confirmed the exchange of letters with Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, in an interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s This Week on Sunday. In the same interview, Obama said that Iran should not think that the United States will not strike because it has not struck in Syria, and that the nuclear issue is more significant to the United States than the chemical weapons issue. Both Obama and Rouhani are set to address the UN General Assembly next week in New York, but are not scheduled to meet. Israel. U.S. officials confirmed that President Obama is slated to host Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House on September 30. The story was first released by Israeli officials. Netanyahu will meet the president before the Israeli leader addresses the United Nations General Assembly. It will be the first meeting between the two leaders since President Obama visited Israel in March. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Yemen’s National Dialogue conference, a six-month reconciliation process that was due to give recommendations on a new constitution and voting system today, was instead extended for another two weeks. The delay occurred when two representatives from former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s party walked out of a meeting, objecting to a proposal to divide the country into a northern and southern province as an attempt to “harm the unity of the homeland.” While delegates have agreed in principle to a federal state, the number of provinces has become a divisive issue; northerners are pushing for several provinces, but southerners only want two provinces. Palestine. A mew Palestinian Authority government headed by Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah was sworn in today in Ramallah by President Abbas. Hamdallah led a caretaker government after he had submitted his own resignation just two weeks into the job last June. Abbas tapped him to head a new government in August, and Hamdallah managed to form a government after five weeks of struggling to do so. After much jockeying over possible appointments, the new government appointed is an exact replica of the previous one. Palestine-Israel. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat alleged today before a group of diplomats and journalists that Israel seeks to control the Jordan Valley out of economic greed. Erekat dismissed previous statements by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel should have at least a forty-year presence in the Jordan Valley to ensure Israel’s security after a peace agreement is signed. Meanwhile, Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior aide to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, told Voice of Palestine radio that the peace talks with Israel “are futile and won’t lead to any results.” Bahrain. Sheik Ali Salman, secretary general of main opposition group Al Wefaq, met today with Hakon Smedsvig, the first secretary for political affairs at the Norwegian embassy in Manama. The meeting was in contravention of a recent ban on all contact with foreign diplomats. Five opposition groups, including Al Wefaq, announced the suspension of their participation in reconciliation talks on Wednesday. The announcement came a day after the arrest of Khalil Marzooq, a member of Al Wefaq and a former member of parliament. Marzooq faces charges of “inciting acts of terror.” Tunisia. UGTT, Tunisia’s largest labor union, proposed a roadmap for ending the country’s political deadlock on Tuesday. The proposal, published on the union’s website, calls for a national dialogue, the current government to step-down in one month, and a caretaker government to steer the country towards new elections. The National Assembly held its first complete session on Tuesday after a month-long suspension, but fifty-nine opposition members refused to return.  

Egypt. Interim president Adly Mansour extended the month-long state of emergency for two more months yesterday. A presidential spokesman explained the extension was due to recent “terrorist activities.” Two car bombs hit an Egyptian military intelligence building in Rafah, Sinai on Wednesday, killing at least eleven people, including six soldiers. The attack came four days after the Egyptian military launched a major offensive against Islamist militants in the Sinai Peninsula. Officials describe the operation as the largest sweep of the region in years and report that at least twenty-seven militants have been killed in past six days. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government banned over fifty thousand imams from giving Friday sermons on Monday because they do not have possess the properly accredited preaching licenses. The new restrictions require imams to have licenses from Al Azhar University and are viewed by many as the government’s attempt to rein in imams who support deposed president Mohamed Morsi. A public relations manager for Al Azhar University said that, “If all preachers are Azharis then any radicalism or extremism will be eliminated from mosques and Islamic thought in Egypt will be unified.” Israel-Palestine. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry is set to travel to Jerusalem on Sunday to meet with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Earlier this week, U.S. officials denied the existence of a signed paper guaranteeing peace talks with Israel would start from the 1967 borders; Palestinian official Nabil Shaath told reporters on Monday that Kerry had given such a document to the Palestinian leadership. Kerry met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday to discuss the talks. Over the weekend, Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molcho reportedly complained to U.S. envoy Martin Indyk accusing the Palestinians of breaching an agreement not to discuss the content or dates of meetings with the media. Tunisia. Tunisia’s transitional parliament partially resumed activities on Wednesday after a month-long suspension. Mustafa Ben Jafar, president of the parliament, said that full meetings to finish drafting the new constitution will be held next week. The suspension of parliament followed the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi, an opposition member of parliament, in August. Libya. A car bomb exploded outside of a Libyan foreign ministry building in Benghazi Wednesday morning—the one-year anniversary of a deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in the city. No deaths or serious injuries were reported. Referring to the anniversary of the attack that killed four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens, Libyan prime minister Ali Zidan said, “We can’t ignore the date and timing. We can’t forget.” No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Turkey. Protestors clashed with Turkish security forces in several cities, including Ankara and Istanbul, for the fourth straight day today over the death of twenty-two year-old demonstrator Ahmet Atakan. Atakan died on Monday after he was allegedly hit on the head by a tear gas canister; the Turkish government has denied responsibility and claimed that he fell off a roof. Bahrain. Justice Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ali Al Khalifa announced on Wednesday the full details of a new law requiring political groups to receive official approval before meeting with foreign governments, diplomats, and international organizations. The law requires groups to contact the Bahraini foreign ministry three days in advance of any such meeting.  

Significant Developments Syria. French foreign minister Laurent Fabius called today for a forceful international response  to reports that the Syrian regime used chemical weapons outside Damascus yesterday. However, Fabius added that “there is no question of sending troops on the ground.” The UN Security Council held an emergency session yesterday and issued a statement calling for a prompt investigation into the alleged use of chemical weapons; however the UN team of chemical weapons inspectors that is currently in Damascus does not have permission from the Syrian government to investigate the site of yesterday’s attack. Syria’s opposition claims the government is responsible for the chemical weapons attack, but the Assad regime denies any involvement. Hundreds, and possibly thousands, of men, women, and children were killed in Wednesday’s attack. Meanwhile, clashes between Kurdish militias and al Qaeda-linked rebel groups in the northern provinces of Syria have escalated in the past week in what threatens to become a new war. Elsewhere, regime troops retook large swathes of President Bashar al-Assad’s home province of Latakia on Monday. Egypt. Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was released from prison today and transported by helicopter to Maadi Military hospital. The move followed an appeals court ruling yesterday that Mubarak had been held the maximum number of days pre-verdict. Interim prime minister Hazem al-Beblawi ordered Mubarak to be held under house arrest following his release. Mubarak still faces charges of corruption and the deaths of protesters during the 2011 revolution. Mahmoud Ezzat was named interim leader of the Muslim Brotherhood on Tuesday, after Egyptian security forces arrested Mohamed Badie, the supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, earlier in the day. Tunisia. The ruling Nahda party agreed in principle today to a plan proposed by the UGTT trade union federation for the transition to new elections. The plan calls for the current government to step down and for a neutral interim cabinet to steer the country to new elections. The Nahda party previously rejected calls for a nonpartisan government, but now appears willing to shift its position. Tunisia has been experiencing a fresh wave of protests following the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi, the second opposition figure to be killed in the past six months. U.S. Foreign Policy Egypt. President Barack Obama met with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss responses to the Egyptian military’s crackdown. White House spokesman Josh Earnest denied on Tuesday that U.S. aid to Egypt had been cutoff or suspended as had been suggested by Senator Patrick Leahy’s office earlier in the day. “A decision to cut off aid would be announced, if it were to be announced, after that review had been completed,” Earnest told reporters, referring to the still ongoing review of aid that Obama ordered in July. Syria. General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, wrote in a letter to Representative Eliot Engel on Monday that, “Syria today is not about choosing between two sides but rather about choosing one among many sides.” He acknowledged the United States could take out the Syrian air force, but that such action might “further commit the United States to the conflict.” Dempsey was responding to a letter from Engel that inquired about the potential for punishing President Bashar al-Assad’s government. Dempsey’s response pre-dates reports that the Syrian regime used chemical weapons on Wednesday. Lebanon. Maura Connelly, U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, left the country on Tuesday, completing three years as the top U.S. official in the country. David Hale, former U.S. special envoy for Middle East peace, is expected to take over the post in the next few weeks. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Iran. Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s longtime ambassador to the International Nuclear Energy Agency, told Reuters yesterday that he will leave his post on September 1. Soltanieh will be the third senior nuclear official replaced since President Hassan Rouhani assumed office on August 3. A spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry told reporters on Tuesday that newly confirmed Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif may handle nuclear negotiations. Iraq. Over thirty thousand refugees have streamed into Iraq from Syria over the past week. Aid agencies reported on Tuesday that the Kurdistan regional government has put in place a quota limiting the number of refugees to three thousand per day. Meanwhile three separate car bombings in southern cities on Tuesday killed at least ten people. Lebanon. Hezbollah member of parliament Ali Miqdad defended his group’s stepped-up security measures in Beirut today in response to a car bombing that killed twenty-seven people last week. Members of the Future parliamentary bloc criticized Hezbollah’s checkpoints in the capital’s southern suburbs on Tuesday for being “militia-like.” Last week’s car bombing was the deadliest in Lebanon in decades. This Week in History This week marks the twentieth anniversary of the initialing of the "Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements," also known as the Oslo Accords. On August 20, 1993, Israeli officials Uri Savir and Joel Singer joined senior Palestinian Liberation Organization officials Ahmed Qurei (Abu Alaa) and Hassan Asfour to initial the Declaration of Principles. Also attending was Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres. The agreement to negotiate further interim measures had been secretly negotiated between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in Norway. Soon after the initialing of the agreement, Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO chairman Yasser Arafat traveled to Washington where they signed the agreements on the White House lawn on September 13, 1993.

Israeli and Palestinian peace talks are poised to resume after a prolonged hiatus. Six Middle East trips, and tireless efforts by Secretary of State John Kerry made this resumption possible. The talks face three major challenges as a new chapter begins in the twenty year-long saga of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Diplomatic Ambiguity.  One fundamental challenge will be turning the very ambiguity that is enabling talks to resume, into the clarity and transparency necessary for a durable agreement. Vague diplomatic formulas were used to bridge seemingly irreconcilable differences. This allowed both Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Abbas to claim that they did not back down to get talks started. But the goal of negotiations is to put pen to paper. There, transparency will be needed to produce an agreement that resolves core differences, such delineating the Israel-Palestine border. Domestic Constraints.  Secondly, both Israelis and Palestinians will face formidable domestic challenges to making diplomatic progress. Both sides will be negotiating, not only with each other across a table, but also with their own people back home. Resuming talks with Israel are very unpopular amongst Palestinians, even within Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization, which President Abbas heads. Abbas’ main political opposition, Hamas, has denounced the talks. Palestinians fear that Israel wants open ended negotiations, and that their political standing will fall without rapid and tangible results from talks. This both constrains Abbas’ ability to be flexible while pressuring him to obtain quick results from Israel. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s domestic situation is also difficult. Some of his main coalition partners oppose the creation of a Palestinian state, as do many of his own Likud party lieutenants. To make negotiating concessions to the Palestinians, Netanyahu may need to realign his political base, and even leave his party to make progress with the Palestinians, as did three earlier Likud leaders-- Arik Sharon, Ehud Olmert, and Tzipi Livni. U.S. Opportunity Costs. The third major challenge concerns the United States. This latest effort to launch talks required sustained, high level engagement by Secretary of State Kerry. Indeed, it has taken up more of his time in office, so far, than any other single issue.  Yet the U.S. faces many other pressing problems of vital national concern in the Middle East and in the rest of the world. At some point soon, Secretary Kerry and President Obama will have to decide if Israeli-Palestinian talks merit the sustained investment of precious time and effort by America’s lead diplomat, or if the Secretary’s energies would better be utilized trying to end the regionally destabilizing war in Syria, manage the delicate road ahead with Egypt, or lead a coalition to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons.  Pursuing all of these objectives, while producing an Israeli-Palestinian agreement, will be a major challenge, to say the least.

Musa al-Gharbi claims that the Arab Spring has failed to render al-Qaeda irrelevant, and it is now on the verge of resurgence. Tunisia-Live’s live blog for updates on Thursday’s assassination of Mohammed Brahmi, leader of the opposition Popular Movement Party in Tunisia. Hani Al Masri examines the limitations on the Palestinian Authority’s position in the new peace negotiations.