• United States
    This Week: Hezbollah Attack, ISIS Rollback, and Jordan Hostage Standoff
    Israel-Lebanon. Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said today that Israel had received reports via the UN indicating Hezbollah does not plan further military strikes following its attack yesterday that killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded seven others. The IDF struck Hezbollah operational positions in Lebanon in retaliation. Spain’s ambassador to the UN blamed Israel for the death of a Spanish soldier, on detail to UNIFIL, who was killed in the crossfire. An IDF spokesperson described the events yesterday as “a severe escalation on our northern border” while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed Iran for the attack. Hezbollah officials hinted that yesterday’s attack came in retaliation for a suspected Israeli airstrike ten days ago that killed an Iranian general and a top Hezbollah official, Jihad Mughniyeh, in the Syrian part of the Golan Heights. ISIS. Syrian Kurdish forces backed by Iraqi Kurdish “peshmerga” and U.S.-led coalition airstrikes successfully regained control of the northern Syrian town of Kobani from ISIS on Monday. The victory follows a four month long battle for the town that left over 1,300 dead. Syrian Kurdish forces reported that they were now moving “to liberate villages to the east and the south.” The United States Central Command confirmed on Monday that around ninety percent of Kobani was now controlled by anti-ISIS forces. Jordan. Jordan yesterday called upon ISIS to release its downed air force pilot, Muath al-Kasaesbeh, along with Kenji Goto, a Japanese journalist held hostage by ISIS. Jordan offered to release Sajida al-Rishawi, who is on death row in Jordan for her role in a 2005 suicide bomb attack that killed 60 people, in exchange. Protests erupted al-Kasaesbeh’s hometown of Karak, some of them critical of Jordan for participating in the anti-ISIS coalition. Al-Kasaesbeh’s father appealed to King Abdullah to facilitate his son’s release. Al-Kasaesbeh has been held by ISIS since December when his jet crashed in Syria during a bombing mission against the group. The Japanese government, a major Jordanian donor, has pressed the Jordanian government to help bring about the early release of the Japanese hostage. U.S. Foreign Policy Saudi Arabia. President Barack Obama cut short his state visit to India on Tuesday and traveled to Saudi Arabia to offer condolences following the death of King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud. The president led a large bipartisan delegation representing former and current officials, including two former secretaries of state and four former national security advisors. Obama was received by the new Saudi monarch, King Salman, in his first official meeting with a visiting foreign dignitary as the custodian of the holy places. Iran. Senator Robert Menendez announced on Tuesday that he and other Senate Democrats would postpone their support for the Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2015 in the Senate until March 24, 2015. The bill, which was introduced this week and is co-authored by Senators Robert Menendez and Mark Kirk, would impose new sanctions on Iran if the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries fail to establish a comprehensive political framework by June 30, 2015. The proposed bill would provide the president with the power to waive the sanctions on a monthly basis after June 30. President Obama had previously threatened to veto the bill, saying it would risk severely jeopardizing the ongoing nuclear negotiation talks with Iran. Yemen. The first drone strike launched by the CIA on Monday since the resignation of Yemeni President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi killed three suspected al-Qaeda fighters. The strike was a clear message from the United States that it would continue its counterterrorism efforts there, despite last week’s resignation of the U.S.-backed president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi. At a news conference in New Delhi on Sunday, President Obama said his administration would “continue to go after high-value targets inside of Yemen … and maintain the pressure that’s required to keep the American people safe.” While We Were Looking Elsewhere Eighteen demonstrators were killed, and hundreds more arrested, last weekend by security forces in protests marking the fourth anniversary of the revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak. Hundreds of protestors attended the subsequent funeral of one of those killed, Shaimaa al-Sabbagh, a noted poet and activist who was a supporter of President Sisi. Egypt’s interior minister declared today that an investigation into Sabbagh’s death has been opened, and promised to prosecute any members of the security forces who are found responsible. Meanwhile, Gamal and Alaa Mubarak, the sons of ousted Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak, were released Monday after 18 months in prison. The two sons await retrial on corruption charges. Libya.The United Nations Mission for Libya (UNSMIL) announced today that the country’s two rival governments, backed by armed militias, have “agreed in principle” to move the peace negotiations to Libya, after another round of talks were held in Geneva on Monday. Meanwhile, a group calling itself Islamic State-Tripoli Province claimed responsibility Tuesday for the attack on the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli. The suicide attack killed nine people, including an American security contractor, David Berry. Bahrain. The trial for Sheikh Ali Salman, the leader of the Bahraini opposition group, Al Wefaq, started yesterday at Bahrain’s Higher Criminal Court. Salman, was arrested by the Bahraini authorities on December 28, 2014, for “promoting the overthrow and change of the political regime by force” and for inciting disobedience and hatred in public statements. Salman denied all charges. His arrest sparked almost daily protests amongst the Shiite community in Bahrain, and was condemned by the United States, Iran, and international human rights groups. Yemen. Houthi leader Abdel Malik al-Houthi blamed southern separatists for the current political impasse in a televised national address on Tuesday. An emergency session of Parliament, meant to address President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s resignation last Friday, failed to convene. Al-Houthi claimed that “this country is for all of us and can fit all of us,” and proposed new talks. On Tuesday the southern parliamentary bloc called on the the United Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council to allow the south to exercise self-determination through an UN supervised referendum.
  • Egypt
    Hostile Middle East Reactions to Today’s Charlie Hebdo Cover
    The French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo published its first issue today since gunmen stormed the magazine’s headquarters in Paris last Monday, killing twelve people. The new cover depicts the Prophet Muhammad cryingand holding a “Je suis Charlie” sign under the words: “Tout est pardonné” (“All is forgiven”). The surviving editors of the magazine held a press conference today claiming that the cartoon is an act of forgiveness. The cartoonist of today’s provocative cover, Renald Luzier, stated, “we have confidence in people’s intelligence and we have confidence in humor.” Immediately, the Charlie Hebdo cover precipitated widespread condemnation across the Middle East invoking accusations of blasphemy, though reactions varied. In a statement to the New York Times today, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula reacted to Charlie Hebdo cartoons , saying, “We have warned you before about the consequences of these deeds that your governments collude with under the pretext of ‘freedom of press’ or ‘freedom of ideas…We tell you once again, stop your insults on our Prophet and sanctities. Stop spilling our blood. Leave our lands.” Below are some other reactions from political and religious leaders and media institutions across the Middle East: Algeria Journalist Habib Rashdim, writing in the Arabic language daily newspaper Echourouk, condemned the French government for helping to fund today’s edition of Charlie Hebdo, saying this “violates all red lines, and is an open crusade against Muslims… It has become every Muslim’s right today to file a lawsuit against the country’s ambassadors over charges of ‘insult and contempt for religion.’” Algerian anti-Islamist newspaper Ennahar responded to today’s Charlie Hebdo cover with a front page cartoon showing a man carrying a “Je suis Charlie” sign next to an army tank crushing placards from Palestine, Mali, Gaza, Iraq and Syria. The headline at the top of the image says: “Nous sommes tous… Mohamed” (“We are all Muhammad”). Egypt Egypt’s Grand Mufti Shawqi Allam warned Charlie Hebdo against publishing a new caricature of the Prophet Muhammad, saying: “This edition will cause a new wave of hatred in French and Western society in general and what the magazine is doing does not serve coexistence or a dialogue between civilizations…This is an unwarranted provocation against the feelings of…Muslims around the world.” Secretary General of Egypt’s Journalists Syndicate Karem Mahmoud: “Insistence on hurting the feelings of millions of Muslims across the world undoubtedly serves the interests of extremists…[the new cover will] embarrass moderate voices who had viewed the Paris crime as treacherous and unlinked to Islam.” Ibrahim Negm, spokesperson for Dar al-Ifta, the fatwa-issuing institution of Al Azhar, said in a lecture at the Martin Luther Church in New York: “The ‪‎world must listen to the wise voices from among the ‪followers of different faiths and pay attention to the demands they repeat after each incident of offense against religious symbols and beliefs…the best way to respond to any offense against the Messenger [of God] is to ignore it and show kindness instead, just as he used to do along his lifetime.” Iran Grand Ayatollah Nasser Makarem-Shirazi, a leading cleric in Iran, said the publication of further satirical images of Mohammad “amounts to declaring war on all Muslims.” Tabnak, a conservative news site in Iran, stated “Charlie Hebdo has once again insulted the Prophet.” Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif, while waiting for nuclear talks with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said: “Unless we learn to respect one another, it will be very difficult in a world of different views and different cultures and civilizations, we won’t be able to engage in a serious dialogue if we start disrespecting each other’s values…we believe that sanctities need to be respected…” Jerusalem Jerusalem’s Grand Mufti Mohammed Hussein criticized the Charlie Hebdo editors’ decision to publish a new cartoon of the Prophet Muhammad saying: “This insult has hurt the feelings of nearly two billion Muslims all over the world. The cartoons and other slander damage relations between the followers of the (Abrahamic) faiths." Jordan Former Crown Prince Hassan bin Talal said: “If the cartoon had read “Je suis Ahmed,” given that many were carrying that badge after the police [killed] Ahmed Merabet, might not have put more salt to the wound but taken it to another level.” Turkey Deputy Prime Minister Yalcin Akdogan said in a message on Twitter, as a Turkish court banned some web sites from showing the most recent Charlie Hebdo cover: “Those who publish imagery referring to our esteemed prophet with complete disregard for Muslims’ holy beliefs are engaging in an open provocation.” Utku Cakirözer, editor-in-chief of pro-secular newspaper Cumhuriyet, wrote on Twitter: “When publishing this selection [of latest Charlie Hebdo cartoons], we paid attention to the freedom of belief and the religious sensitivities of societies…After multiple consultations, we decided not to publish on the cover.”
  • United States
    This Week: Iran Negotiations, Jordan-Israel Crisis Talks, and New Syria Truce Proposal
    Significant Developments Iran. Negotiators from Iran and the P5+1 countries hinted at a possible extension of the November 24 deadline for a nuclear deal, after three days of talks in Oman failed to provide a breakthrough in the negotiations. However, Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes stressed publicly that the United States was “not focused in discussions with Iran on extending [the deadline], [in order] to keep the focus on closing gaps.” The negotiators will meet again in Vienna next Tuesday for the final week of talks. Meanwhile, Russia agreed on Tuesday to build two nuclear power reactors in Iran and a possible six more plants. The construction and fuel handling will be monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel-Palestine. King Abdullah of Jordan is hosting trilateral talks in Amman with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry over growing tensions in Jerusalem. Kerry was scheduled to meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas separately today after meeting King Abdullah for dinner yesterday evening. Israel announced plans yesterday to build 200 new units in the Ramot neighborhood of East Jerusalem. U.S. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki criticized the announcement, saying that the United States was “deeply concerned by this decision, particularly given the tense situation in Jerusalem as well as the unequivocal and unanimous position of the United States and others in the international community opposing such construction in east Jerusalem.” Palestinian militants are suspected of killing an Israeli soldier and a woman in two separate stabbing attacks on Monday. West Bank residents yesterday accused “Israeli extremists” of burning down a local mosque. Syria. The Free Syrian Army rejected a United Nations proposal for a truce in Aleppo yesterday. The proposal is part of a plan by UN envoy Staffan de Mistura to implement localized ceasefires. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said the proposal was “worth studying.” Meanwhile, vehicles carrying food and aid supplies entered neighborhoods of Damascus and Homs between Tuesday and Wednesday, following localized truces there between government forces and opposition fighters. U.S. Foreign Policy UN. The UN Committee on Torture questioned American officials in Geneva yesterday on the United States’ reasons for maintaining the internment camp at Guantanamo Bay, its treatment of prisoners during the “War on Terror,” and on reports of abuse in United States prisons. U.S. legal advisor Mary McLeod told the Committee that the United States had “crossed the line […] in the wake of the 9/11 attacks [and] regrettably did not live up to [their] own values.” Iraq. President Barack Obama dispatched an additional 1,500 non-combatant troops to Iraq last Friday to help train and advise Iraqi and Kurdish forces battling ISIS. The White House also announced plans to request $1.6 billion from Congress to create an “Iraq Train and Equip Fund.” Rear Admiral John Kirby, spokesman for the Pentagon, said Congress’ approval of the funds would be a prerequisite for the deployment of troops. Congress may grant the approval within the next few weeks. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Egypt. Egypt’s most violent militant group, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, pledged loyalty to ISIS on Monday. The two militant groups are expected to share financial resources, weapons, and recruits. The affiliation provides ISIS with a possible victory against al-Qaeda, which has traditionally maintained strong roots in Egypt. The decision is reportedly causing internal rifts between the leaders of the two factions of Ansar Beit al-Maqdis: While the Sinai leaders pledged allegiance to ISIS, the Nile Valley faction made clear last week on Twitter that their allegiance remains to al-Qaeda. Jordan. Minister of Islamic Affairs Hayel Dawood announced new measures to restrict the spread of extremist Islamic preaching in the kingdom. In a series of meetings targeting five thousand imams around the country, Dawood set out the rules of the program, which aims to prosecute ISIS recruiters and to ensure that Jordanian Muslim clerics preach moderate Islam during the weekly Friday night sermon. Clerics were ordered to keep sermons short, avoid negative references to King Abdullah II and the royal family, avoid “slander” against the United States and Western allies, and avoid promoting sectarianism and support for jihad. Imams who collaborate with the government will receive a monthly salary of $600, travel assistance for the pilgrimage to Mecca, and the opportunity to attend religious workshops. Conversely, non-compliance will result in clerics being banned from preaching, and in severe cases being tried by the State Security Court under the newly stringent anti-terrorism law. Yemen. The Houthi rebels seem to have endorsed Yemen’s new government today despite continuing reservations over some of the ministers. The government, led by President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, was sworn-in on Sunday and was welcomed by the United States though rejected by former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s party, the General People’s Congress. The United States imposed sanctions on Saleh and two Houthi military commanders, Abdullah Yahya al-Hakim and Abd al-Khaliq al-Huthi, for engaging in acts that “directly or indirectly threaten the peace, security, or stability of Yemen.” Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David S. Cohen stated that the United States would “hold accountable anyone who threatens the stability of Yemen and the efforts of the Yemeni people to accomplish a peaceful political transition.” Gaza. The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced on Monday that a panel will conduct an investigation into attacks on UN buildings during the Gaza war last summer. The panel will also seek to determine how weapons were stored in UN compounds in Gaza. The UN’s decision comes despite Israel’s request for the investigation to be postponed until the conclusions of its own internal investigation emerge. Lebanon. Hezbollah is reportedly recruiting young Christian, Druze, and Sunni Muslim men from the Bekaa valley in eastern Lebanon to join the Resistance Brigades, a militant group formed by Hezbollah in 2009. The recruitment in Lebanon mirrors the recruitment of Christian, Druze, and Alawites in Syria. The Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar stated that the members of the Resistance Brigades would not be fighting in Syria, but would be stationed in Lebanon to “monitor the Lebanese territory” and to “counter the threat of ISIS and its affiliates.” Iraq-Saudi Arabia. Iraqi President Fuad Masum visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to meet with King Abdullah in order to improve long standing tense relations between the two countries. Iraqi Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari confirmed that the meeting between the two leaders was to discuss “cooperation in the field of fighting terrorism and economic, trade and security relations.” The meeting, according to Zebari, was aimed at “normalizing diplomatic and political relations between the two countries.” Saudi Arabia. The deputy governor of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, Emir Jalwin bin Abdulaziz bin Musaid al-Saud, was transferred yesterday to the Najran region following last week’s attack against Shiite civilians in his province left seven people dead. The reasons for the governor’s transfer remain unconfirmed, but the move followed “Shiite calls for action against hate speech in the media.”  
  • United States
    Voices From the UN General Assembly
    International efforts to combat ISIS dominated the recent debate in New York when world leaders converged for the UN General Assembly’s sixty-ninth session. Middle East Matters has excerpted passages from regional leaders, all of whom spoke about the ISIS challenge, though in markedly different ways. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and this summer’s fighting also featured heavily, with most speeches specifically calling for the Gaza strip to be rebuilt. Also noteworthy was what wasn’t mentioned. Niether Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi nor Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moualem said a word about Gaza. Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani chose not to name ISIS explicitly, though he implied that the Assad regime was to blame for the region’s ills. Here’s what some of them had to say:   President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt On ISIS-Terrorism “The formation of a new government approved by the Parliament in the brotherly country of Iraq is a significant development that restores hope in the possibility of an improvement in the situation there, and in the success of the internal and external attempts to achieve stability, restore the areas that fell under the control ofthe terrorist organization ‘ISIS’, maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq, end the bloodshed, and realize the aspirations and hopes of the Iraqis, as well as their efforts to bring back security and stability in their country.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “Despite the multitude of crises threatening our region, some of which I alluded to, the Palestinian issue remains a top priority for Egypt. Palestinians still aspire to establish their independent state on the occupied territories in 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital, on the basis of the principles upon which the peace process was established since the nineteen seventies following an Egyptian initiative. These principles are not up for negotiation, otherwise the basis of a comprehensive peace in the region would erode, and the values of justice and humanity would vanish. The continued deprivation of the Palestinian people of their rights is undoubtedly exploited by some to inflame other crises, achieve hidden goals, fragment Arab unity, and impose control on Palestinians under the guise of realizing their aspirations.” On Egypt’s internal situation “The world is starting to grasp the reality of what happened in Egypt, and to understand the circumstances that drove Egyptians to intuitively take to the streets to rebel against the forces of extremism and darkness, which once in power, undermined the foundations of the democratic process and national institutions, and sought to impose a state of polarization to break the unity ofthe people.” President Hassan Rouhani, Iran On ISIS-Terrorism “I deeply regret to say that terrorism has become globalized: "From New York to Mosul, from Damascus to Baghdad, from the Easternmost to the Westernmost parts of the world, from Al-Qaeda to Daesh". The extremists of the world have found each other and have put out the call: "extremists of the world unite". But are we united against the extremists?!” “The strategic blunders of the West in the Middle-East, Central Asia, and the Caucuses have turned these parts of the world into a haven for terrorists and extremists.” On Israel/Palestine//Gaza “Had we had greater cooperation and coordination in the Middle East, thousands of innocent Palestinians in Gaza would not have been fallen victim to Zionist regime’s aggression.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel On ISIS-Terrorism "Last week, many of the countries represented here rightly applauded President Obama for leading the effort to confront ISIS. And yet weeks before, some of the same countries, the same countries that now support confront ISIS, opposed Israel for confronting Hamas. They evidently don’t understand that ISIS and Hamas are branches of the same poisonous tree." “So, when it comes to their ultimate goals, Hamas is ISIS and ISIS is Hamas”. “But they all share a fanatic ideology. They all seek to create ever expanding enclaves of militant Islam where there is no freedom and no tolerance- where women are treated as chattel, Christians are decimated, and minorities are subjugated, sometimes given the stark choice: convert or die.” On Israeli-Palestinian peace “Many have long assumed that an Israeli-Palestinian peace can help facilitate a broader rapprochement between Israel and the Arab World. But these days I think it may work the other way around: Namely that a broader rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world may help facilitate an Israeli-Palestinian peace. And therefore, to achieve that peace, we must look not only to Jerusalem and Ramallah, but also to Cairo, to Amman, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and elsewhere […]” On Iran "The Nazis believed in a master race. The militant Islamists believe in a master faith. They just disagree about who among them will be the master...of the master faith. That’s what they truly disagree about. Therefore, the question before us is whether militant Islam will have the power to realize its unbridled ambitions. There is one place where that could soon happen: The Islamic State of Iran." "Imagine how much more dangerous the Islamic State, ISIS, would be if it possessed chemical weapons. Now imagine how much more dangerous the Islamic state of Iran would be if it possessed nuclear weapons." His Majesty King Abdullah II, Jordan On ISIS-Terrorism “The teachings of true Islam are clear: sectarian conflict and strife are utterly condemned. Islam prohibits violence against Christians and other communities that make up each country. Let me say once again: Arab Christians are an integral part of my region’s past, present, and future.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “We cannot address the future of my region without addressing its central conflict: the denial of Palestinian rights and statehood.” “A first, imperative step is to mobilise international efforts to rebuild Gaza. As we do so, we must also marshal the united, global response needed to achieve a once-and-for-all, lasting settlement.” On Refugees “The heavy flow of Syrian refugees continues. My country is sheltering nearly 1.4 million Syrians. We are now the world’s third largest host of refugees. This is placing an overwhelming burden on Jordan’s people, infrastructure and already limited resources.” President Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine On ISIS-Terrorism “Confronting the terrorism that plagues our region by groups - such as "ISIL" and others that have no basis whatsoever in the tolerant Islamic religion or with humanity and are committing brutal and heinous atrocities - requires much morethan military confrontation. […] It requires, in this context and as a priority, bringing an end to the Israeli occupation of our country, which constitutes in its practices and perpetuation, an abhorrent form of state terrorism anda breeding ground for incitement, tension and hatred.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza "This last war against Gaza was a series of absolute war crimes carried out before the eyes and ears of the entire world, moment by moment, in a manner that makes it inconceivable that anyone today can claim that they did not realize the magnitude and horror of the crime." “We reaffirm here that the primary prerequisite for the success of all these plans and efforts is an end to the ongoing Israeli blockade that has for years suffocated the Gaza Strip and turned it into the largest prison in the world for nearly two million Palestinian citizens. At the same time, we affirm our commitment and the necessity to consolidate the cease-fire through negotiations under the auspices of Egypt.” Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, Qatar On ISIS-Terrorism “It has been proven beyond doubt, that terrorism can only be defeated in its social environment. If societies are to stand with us in the fight against terrorism, we need to be fair with them and not push them to choose between terrorism and tyranny, or between terrorism and sectarian discrimination.” “This is what the majority of the Syrian people must be persuaded of after being soaked in blood spilled by the Syrian regime for daring to demand freedom and dignity.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “The damages caused by the repeated Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip over the past years, the unjust siege imposed on it, and the destruction it caused in its infrastructure, make it imperative for the international community to compel Israel to implement the resolutions of the international legitimacy, fulfill its obligations and expedite the removal of obstacles in order to lift the blocade and achieve the reconstruction process.” “The international community’s response to the aspirations of the Palestinian people to freedom and national independence is a prerequisite to confirm the justice of international legitimacy, especially since the question of Palestine is the last remaining issue on the decolonization agenda.” Minister of Foreign Affairs Walid Al-Moualem, Syria On ISIS-Terrorism “You are witnessing today what the ISIS, the most dangerous terrorist organization in the world at all in terms of funding and brutality is doing to Syrians and Iraqis of all spectra and religions. This terrorist organization is enslaving women, raping them and selling them in slave markets; it is cutting heads and limbs, and it is teaching children slaughter and murder, besides destroying historical and cultural monuments, as well as Islamic and Christian Symbols.” “Has not the moment of truth arrived for us all to admit that ISIS, Al-Nusrah Front and the rest of Al-Qaeda affiliates, will not be limited within the borders of Syria and Iraq, but will spread to every spot it can reach, starting with Europe and America?” “Let us together stop this ideology and its exporters, let us, simultaneously, exert pressure on the countries that joined the coalition led by the United States to stop their support of armed terrorist groups”. On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “Syria confirms, also, that the Palestinian issue is the central issue of the Syrian people, which supports the inalienable and legitimate rights of the brotherly Palestinian people, particularly, the right to return and self-determination, and to establish its independent state on its land, with Jerusalem as its capital.” On the internal political situation in Syria “Now, after the presidential elections, we would like to tell everyone that who wants and looks forward to a political solution in Syria that they must firstly respect the Syrian people’s will, which was manifested explicitly, clearly, strongly and most loudly. They chose their President, for the first time in Syria’s modern history, in multi-party elections, with international monitors from several countries that witnessed the integrity, transparency and the enthusiasm of the people to participate in these elections.” Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, United Arab Emirates On ISIS-Terrorism “With the increased incidence of terrorism and extremism in our region, most notably perpetrated by ISIS, the international community must be aware that the threats posed by these terrorist and extremist groups are expanding beyond our region to threaten the rest of the civilized world.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “The UAE strongly condemns Israel’s aggression against Gaza, especially the destruction inflicted upon its population and civilian facilities, including the United Nations’ facilities, and we demand a thorough, transparent and independent investigation be conducted, in order to determine the legal responsibility for these damages.” On Egypt “This hope is driven by the remarkable progress achieved by the new government in Egypt and its good governance in implementing its political roadmap. Despite the challenges facing Egypt, the signs of normalcy in public life and the revived economy and culture are promising.” “Therefore, the UAE regrets the statements of some countries and their unacceptable questioning of the legitimacy of the Egyptian government. The present Egyptian government was freely elected by its people, who believe in their ability to fulfill their aspirations. Questioning the Egyptian people’s will and their right to choose their representatives is an interference in the internal affairs of Egypt and undermines its stability. Accordingly, I would like to emphasize that the stability of our region depends on the stability of Egypt.”  
  • United States
    This Week: ISIS struck in Syria and Iraq as the Middle East takes center stage at the UN
    Significant Developments Syria. The United States conducted its first ever military strikes against ISIS in Syria this week, targeting primarily oil refineries and infrastructure used for command and control in Raqqa. U. S. military and intelligence officials said on Tuesday that the airstrikes had also targeted an al-Qaeda affiliate called Khorasan. The group had reportedly been organizing an “imminent” attack from Syria against the United States or Europe. According to press reports, U.S. ambassador to the UN Samantha Power informed her Syrian counterpart in advance of the airstrikes in Syria. Iraq’s new Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi claimed U.S. officials passed a message to the Assad government via Baghdad that the United States was not targeting his regime. A Syrian diplomat was quoted yesterday in a pro-regime newspaper saying, “the U.S. military leadership is now fighting in the same trenches with the Syrian generals.” Iraq. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi expressed tentative support for U.S. airstrikes in Syria after being reassured that ISIS is the target. Abadi noted that, “as a neighbor, I don’t want to be party to the disintegration of Syria or to have diminished sovereignty of Syria.” France conducted its first airstrikes in Iraq as part of the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS on Monday. In retaliation to France’s attacks, a militant group affiliated with ISIS, Jund al-Khilafa, kidnapped and beheaded French national Hervé Gourdel in Algeria. President Francois Hollande declared at the United Nations that France will continue to provide military support to the coalition against ISIS. Meanwhile, the British parliament voted today to approve the United Kingdom’s participation in U.S.-led airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq. Iran. President Hassan Rouhani blamed the West and Arab regimes for creating ISIS at the UN General Assembly yesterday. Rouhani also suggested that Iran would not cooperate in U.S.-led efforts to combat ISIS until a deal is reached on Iran’s nuclear program. British Prime Minister David Cameron and Rouhani met in New York on Wednesday morning in the first summit meeting of the two countries since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. Meanwhile, a P5+1 meeting with Iranian officials scheduled for today in New York was cancelled at the last minute. French Foreign Minister Fabius told reporters, “We were due to have a meeting this morning of the P5+1 on one side and the Iranians on the other but because of a lack of progress, this meeting (had) to be called off.” U.S. Foreign Policy ISIS. President Barack Obama, speaking before the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday, focused primarily on the threat posed by ISIS and Islamist radicals. Obama reaffirmed the need to establish a strong coalition against ISIS stating that “the United States of America will work with a broad coalition to dismantle this network of death, [as] the only language understood by killers like this [ISIS] is the language of force.” Later that day, Obama led a session of the United Nations Security Council which unanimously passed a resolution to calling upon states to adopt legislation to stop their citizens from travelling to join terrorist groups and from providing financial aid to them. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Arab Bank. On Monday, a federal jury in Brooklyn found the Amman-based Arab Bank, the largest financial institution in Jordan, liable for facilitating twenty-four terrorist attacks by Hamas between 2001 and 2004. It was the first jury verdict of a U.S. anti-terrorism statute passed in 1990. The lawyers of the plaintiffs, family members of victims of Hamas’ attacks, argued that the Arab Bank knowingly handled transfers and payments for members of the terrorist organization. The decision is being watched closely by banks throughout the Middle East. Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggested on Tuesday that the forty-nine hostages who were captured in Iraq and held for over three months by ISIS were released as a result of the Turkish government agreeing to a non-monetary deal with the group. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, Erdogan refuted claims that a ransom was paid, but did not explicitly deny the possibility of a prisoner swap with ISIS, stating that “such a thing is possible.” Meanwhile, over 140,000 Syrian Kurds have sought refuge in Turkey since the ISIS attack on Kurdish town of Ayn al-Arab late last week. Turkey is currently hosting an estimated 1.6 million Syrian refugees. The United Nations has further warned that the numbers of Syrian Kurdish refugees could exceed 400,000 in the near future. Palestine. President Mahmoud Abbas, accusing Israel of conducting a “war of genocide” in Gaza, refrained from saying he will pursue war crimes against the Jewish state at the International Criminal Court. Abbas also said he would seek a UN resolution setting a deadline for Israel’s withdrawal from territories it captured in 1967, though he did not include a three-year target as other Palestinian officials said he would. Meanwhile, Hamas and Fatah officials reportedly made progress in talks yesterday about implementing the national reconciliation agreement that was first agreed upon last April. Moussa Abu Marzouk, a senior Hamas official, declared that the national unity government, which was sworn in on June 2, would take over government institutions and border crossings in Gaza. However, PLO officials cautioned that Thursday’s progress lacked substance and many of the areas of dispute, including payment of public employees in Gaza, have yet to be resolved. Yemen. Houthi rebels and the Yemeni transitional government agreed Sunday night to an immediately effective ceasefire and to form a new “technocratic national government” following the rebels’ successful assault on Sana’a. On Wednesday, the Yemeni state oil company announced a cut in fuel prices, which was one of the key demands of Houthi rebels, while Yemeni authorities freed two Hezbollah members with ties to the Houthis on Wednesday. Houthi fighters have thus far ignored the part of Sunday’s peace deal that called for them to withdraw from Sana’a. EU. Belgian authorities tightened security around the European Commission buildings on Monday following reports of a planned terrorist attack related to ISIS. Belgian authorities also confirmed that they had detained a couple on their return to Brussels from Syria under the country’s anti-terrorism laws. They were suspected of plotting an attack on the Commission buildings. Israel-Palestine. Two suspects in the June killing of the three Yeshiva students, which sparked the latest round of fighting in Gaza, were shot dead by the Israeli military on Tuesday. According to IDF spokesperson Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, the suspects were shot by the IDF after they “came out shooting” from the building they had been hiding in for a week. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed his cabinet on Tuesday that “there [has been] accounting of justice” despite the ongoing suffering of the boys’ parents. Conversely, several Palestinians have denounced the killing as extrajudicial. Hamas, who had previously confirmed the suspects were affiliated with the group, praised them as heroes and led a large-scale funeral procession in their honor. Israel-Syria. The Israeli military shot down a Syrian fighter plane on Tuesday when it crossed into Israeli-controlled air space over the Golan Heights. A spokesperson for the Israeli Air Force said that the pilots had ejected from the aircraft safely into Syrian controlled territory. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the downing of the aircraft, expressing security concerns over the potential for Islamist militants to strike Israel.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Why Did Hamas Provoke a War?
    The current battles between Israel and Hamas were provoked by Hamas. Why? When increased levels of rocket fire began about a week ago, Israeli prime minister Netanyahu responded with restraint. He sent clear messages to Hamas in public statements, and via Turkey, Jordan, and Egypt, that he wanted no war, and no incursion into Gaza; if the rocket attacks ended, this confrontation would be over. But Hamas chose to increase the pace of firing, guaranteeing an Israeli response. The question is why, and there are several answers. First, consider Hamas’s situation a week ago. The economic situation in Gaza is dire, due both the reduced Iranian support and to the closure of the border with Egypt by the Egyptian Army. Gazans are unhappy with Hamas, due to the repression and corruption they see in its rule in Gaza, and to the economic situation. When Mohammed Morsi was elected president of Egypt two years ago, Hamas thought its situation would change: it is part of the Muslim Brotherhood, and now Egypt had a Brotherhood president. But even in his year in office, Morsi could not deliver for Hamas; the Army blocked him. And then he was overthrown by a military coup, replaced now by a president who commanded that Army and is deeply hostile to Hamas and the Brotherhood. The sense of growing power and perhaps inevitable victory for the Brotherhood is gone now. So Hamas needed a way out of its increasingly difficult situation. John Kerry’s peace negotiations might have delivered some shake-up in the overall Israeli-Palestinian situation, but they failed. Hamas then tried a political maneuver: a deal with Fatah and the Palestinian Authority to form a non-party government in Ramallah that held the promise of bringing Hamas into the PA and PLO after elections later this year. But that maneuver was getting Hamas little benefit and few Palestinians believed an election would actually happen. Meanwhile, most attention in the region was directed to ISIS, Iran, Iraq, and Syria; Hamas, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict more broadly, were no longer news. Finally, the arrangement Hamas had reached with Israel—no rocket attacks out of Gaza, no Israeli attacks into Gaza—was becoming increasingly tough for Hamas to maintain. Teen-age boys and young men do not join Hamas in order to police Gaza’s borders and prevent Islamic Jihad from attacking Israel; they join in order to attack Israel. Hamas was risking the charge from other terrorists that it was an auxiliary police force for Israel, and risking that young men would drift away to those other terrorist groups. So, the Hamas leadership decided it had to shake things up. This new battle with Israel has several benefits for Hamas. To say that Turkey, Jordan, and Egypt are passing messages from the Israelis about mutual restraint, and are urging Hamas to back off, is to say that these governments are now in daily contact with Hamas leaders. Statements from Hamas are now, once again, front page news; Hamas is no longer irrelevant. Hamas is now in its eyes and those, it hopes, of many Arabs, back in the front line of the struggle against Israel. It will also, it must believe, be seen as the heroic victim of Israeli attacks, worthy of solidarity and support—both political and financial. And this episode in its long struggle with Israel allows Hamas to show its capabilities: longer range missiles that attack Tel Aviv and further north, sea-based attacks by swimmers who enter Israel from the beaches, tunnels that would enable the kidnapping of more hostages to exchange or permit heavily armed men to reach Israeli communities and exact a high price in lives, and a high volume of rockets to overwhelm Israel’s high-tech defenses like Iron Dome. Finally, Hamas must believe that Israel desires to damage it and restore deterrence, but not to destroy Hamas and its rule in Gaza. Believing that chaos and anarchy or rule by Islamic Jihad would be even worse for Israel than rule by Hamas, the organization may believe that it will emerge from this round of warfare bloodied but still in place. It is a very big gamble for Hamas, and the size of the gamble is the measure of Hamas’s desperation. For so far, Hamas has not done much damage to Israel. The swimmers were killed the minute they came out of the water. The tunnels have been discovered and bombed. The missiles are causing Israelis to flee to bomb shelters, but thank God (and Iron Dome) they have so far not caused much property damage and no loss of life. Meanwhile Israel targets Hamas’s missiles and especially its missile launchers, headquarters, arsenals and warehouses, and leaders. There is not much Hamas can call a victory except proving the range of its rockets. All this can change in an instant: a rocket can land in a hospital or school, in Gaza or in Israel—and much more likely in Israel, because the Hamas rockets are unguided. Significant loss of life in Israel would be viewed as a “victory” by Hamas, and enough of these “victories” could lead it to seek an end to this round and a return to calm. But Hamas wants more than calm: it has demands. It wants the men who were freed in exchange for Gilad Shalit, and recently re-arrested, to be freed again by Israel, and even has demands of Egypt—to open the border with Sinai far wider. Hamas may have reached the conclusion that it must soon abandon those demands and agree to a truce, but be unwilling to stop until it can point to some “achievement” like hitting a major tower in downtown Tel Aviv or killing a large group of Israelis. But if there are no such “victories” and the Israeli assaults continue, that will change. This appears to be Israel’s assessment: keep increasing the pressure until Hamas, which started this war because it saw too many threats to its survival and dominance in Gaza, comes to see continued war as the key threat. Those who want the violence to end must realize that the larger is the Israeli effort now, the sooner Hamas will conclude this round must be ended.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Israel: BDS in the West, Integration in the Middle East?
    Efforts continue in Europe and the United States to boycott Israel or at least Israeli goods "tainted" by their production in settlements in the West Bank, and to disinvest in Israeli companies or in U.S. firms doing business there. Most recently, the Presbyterian Church USA joined in, voting that it would divest its shares in Caterpillar Inc., Hewlett-Packard and Motorola Solutions because of their sales in Israel. But in the Middle East, the trend seems to be exactly opposite. This week, Egypt’s petroleum minister announced that Egypt would be buying Israeli natural gas. Why? Because Egypt needs energy supplies, and Israel is the logical supplier of gas. British Gas, the UK company, will extract the gas from Israeli sites in the Mediterranean and bring it by pipeline to Egypt. Here is part of the story in the Daily News, an Egyptian paper: Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Sherif Ismail does not mind allowing British BG Group to import gas from Israel.... “As the Minister of Petroleum, I remain of the opinion that there is no problem in letting BG Group import Israeli gas to protect Egypt from international fines and arbitration,” Ismail added. The company has not yet requested the government to begin the process of importing gas, he said, and it will only be allowed to import after approval and the signing of an agreement with the Egyptian government. “There is no embarrassment in Egypt using the gas the BG Group imports from Israel given our economic issues,” the minister went on. He stated that politically speaking, the president and the government working indirectly with Israel “is no longer taboo”. “Whatever is in Egypt’s interest must be implemented immediately as we are dealing with an energy crisis,” the minister said. Meanwhile, the important travel of trucks between Turkey and Jordan has become impossible due to the war in Syria. The solution: send them by ship to Haifa. From there they can drive east into Jordan. Here is part of the Reuters story: The hydraulic ramp of a Turkish freighter taps down on the eastern Mediterranean port of Haifa and, under a full moon, 37 trucks roll off onto an otherwise empty pier. In a convoy that stretches hundreds of meters, the trucks travel east across northern Israel, bringing goods from Europe to customers in Jordan and beyond. Until three years ago the cargo these trucks carry – fruits, cheese, raw material for the textile industry, spare parts, and second-hand trucks – would have come through Syria. But civil war has made that journey too perilous....Three years after Syria plunged into violence, Israel is reaping an unlikely economic benefit. The number of trucks crossing between Israel and Jordan has jumped some 300 percent since 2011, to 10,589 trucks a year, according to the Israel Airports Authority. In particular, exports from Turkey – food, steel, machinery and medicine – have begun to flow through Israel and across the Sheikh Hussein Bridge to Jordan and a few Arab neighbors. Turkey’s Directorate General of Merchant Marine, part of that country’s transport ministry, said that transit containers shipped to Israel for passage on to other countries increased to 77,337 tonnes in 2013 from 17,882 tonnes in 2010. These are relatively small numbers, but these two items--gas to Egypt, trucks to Jordan--suggest that economic necessity is pushing these Middle East countries together. Meanwhile, they share some common enemies too, above all the jihadis of ISIS and al-Qaeda. The blind moralists of the PCUSA and other promoters of doing less business with Israel might take note. History is not on their side, nor economics, nor security needs--nor, of course, is their selective moralizing persuasive. It is reassuring that while they vote their prejudices, in the Middle East the Israeli gas will flow and the trucks will sail into and roll out of Haifa.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Policy in Syria, Iraq, and the Broader Middle East
    I’ve written two articles this past week about policy in the Middle East. In Politico, the article entitled "The Man Who Broke the Middle East" broadly covers President Obama’s Middle East policy, and begins this way: There’s always Tunisia. Amid the smoking ruins of the Middle East, there is that one encouraging success story. But unfortunately for the Obama narratives, the president had about as much as to do with Tunisia’s turn toward democracy as he did with the World Cup rankings. Where administration policy has had an impact, the story is one of failure and danger. The Middle East that Obama inherited in 2009 was largely at peace, for the surge in Iraq had beaten down the al Qaeda-linked groups. U.S. relations with traditional allies in the Gulf, Jordan, Israel and Egypt were very good. Iran was contained, its Revolutionary Guard forces at home. Today, terrorism has metastasized in Syria and Iraq, Jordan is at risk, the humanitarian toll is staggering, terrorist groups are growing fast and relations with U.S. allies are strained. In the British magazine Standpoint, I argue that "The US Can Still Help Save Syria — and Iraq," and outline the series of steps I think would be needed. The penultimate paragraph is this: What has been missing in Syria since 2011 is Western, and especially American, leadership and determination, but it is not too late for a new policy. The early goal of a quick departure for Assad and transition to democracy in Syria is now impossible to attain. More disorder and suffering are certain. But Syria need not be an endless source of refugees, a centre of inhuman suffering at the hands of a vicious minority regime, and a worldwide gathering place for jihadi extremists. Needed now are a serious and coordinated effort to assist the nationalist elements of the rebels, and organise assistance for them from others in the region — Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar are the most critical — and American (and if possible British and French) willingness to use force directly to punish chemical warfare and erode Assad’s air power. Those remain essential steps of a new policy that can over time diminish the tragedy being suffered by the Syrian people and the threat Syria now poses to regional stability and European and American security interests. American policy remains unclear in both Syria and Iraq. Will we give serious assistance to Syrian rebels? Will we seriously try to push Maliki aside? Will there be American air strikes in Syria or Iraq? Will we seek an accommodation with Iran? I hope these two articles give greater clarity about how we got to where we are, and what might be next.
  • United States
    This Week: Syria’s Fighting and Spillover Into Lebanon and Jordan
    Significant Developments Syria. Regime fighters reportedly made significant progress against opposition forces in Homs this week, as Syrian military forces began entering rebel districts on Monday, stepping up one of the strongest bombardments in months. Homs is considered the last main opposition stronghold in central Syria. Meanwhile, the Syrian regime and opposition representatives traded new accusations of using chemical weapons in an attack on the village of Kfar Zeita last Friday. U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, responded to reports of a chlorine gas attack on Sunday, saying, “So far it’s unsubstantiated…we will do everything in our power to establish what has happened and then consider possible steps in response.” According to the Syrian daily Al-Watan, a date for Syria’s upcoming presidential election will be announced next week by Mohamed Jihad Lahham, the speaker of the parliament. The vote is expected to be held before President Bashar Assad’s current term expires on July 17. On Monday, EU foreign ministers issued a statement calling the electoral process in Syria a “parody of democracy.” Plans to go through with elections were also criticized by U.N.-Arab League negotiator Lakhdar Brahimi, who stated that such a vote would push the opposition away from the negotiating table. A new law requires candidates to have lived in Syria for the previous ten years and hold no other nationality, thus excluding opposition figures in exile. Lebanon. Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri announced that parliamentary elections will take place next Wednesday, April 23. The new parliament will then be tasked to elect Lebanon’s new president on May 25 upon the completion of President Michel Sleiman’s term.  Meanwhile, Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk announced Tuesday that the government will limit the entry of further Syrian refugees into Lebanon. “Syrian refugees are our guests, but the Lebanese government does not have the resources and infrastructure to endure their number,” Machnouk said as he announced that plans are being prepared to reduce the number of future Syrian refugees. According to the minister, 27 percent of the current total population in Lebanon is Syrian. Jordan. Jordanian warplanes destroyed three vehicles yesterday attempting to cross into the country from Syria. The Jordanian military did not provide specifics about the targeted vehicles, although the Syrian government released a statement saying that the vehicles did not belong to the Syrian military. The strike was the first open Jordanian use of military aircraft along its northern border since the Syrian conflict erupted. Saudi Arabia. The official Saudi Press Agency reported on Tuesday that Intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan stepped down from his post, a move that has been rumored for weeks. The decision was announced in a royal decree that also named General Youssef al-Idrissi Saudi Arabia’s new acting Intelligence chief. Bandar had been appointed to the position in July 2012 and ran Saudi Arabia’s Syria policy until Interior Minister Prince Mohammed Nayef al-Saud took it over earlier this year in February. U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. The IAEA reported in its monthly update released today that Iran is complying with the interim nuclear deal struck by Iran and the P5+1 countries last November. Tehran expects to receive a fifth tranche of funds that were previously frozen overseas by the end of this week. Iranian President Rouhani said on Tuesday, “If it goes on with the same trend, the final agreement could be reached within six months.”  However, General Hossein Dehghan on Wednesday said that Iran’s ballistic missiles are not open to discussion , rebuffing earlier comments by State Department nuclear negotiator Wendy Sherman, who has said Iran’s missile program should be addressed as part of an agreement with Iran. Meanwhile, Tehran formally protested the U.S. refusal to grant Iran’s proposed new UN ambassador, Hamid Aboutalebi, a visa to enter the United States. Washington had officially declined the visa request since Aboutalebi worked as a translator for the group responsible for the 1979 hostage crisis in Tehran. The Iranians claim that the United States has breached the U.S.-UN Host Country Agreement by denying the visa. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Israel-Palestine. Israeli and Palestinian negotiators are scheduled to meet today with U.S. envoy Martin Indyk, after their most recent scheduled meeting was postponed. Israeli sources claimed the meeting was postponed after an Israeli officer was killed near Hebron on Monday while driving with his family; Palestinian sources said the meeting was delayed so that Indyk could participate. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed the Palestinian leadership for the killing, stating that, “assassination is the result of the incitement to hatred by Palestinian Authority leaders who continue to peddle hate-filled material against Israel.” Earlier this week, Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman announced that secret talks were being held between Israel and “moderate” Arab states. In his announcement on Monday, Lieberman argued that the Iranian regional threat had mitigated anti-Israeli sentiment and stated that, “We will have a situation in which we have full diplomatic relations with most of the moderate Arab states…and you can count on my word.” GCC. A Jordanian official announced on Tuesday that Morocco and Jordan had been formally invited by the Gulf Cooperation Council to create a military alliance in late March. The agreement, which is currently under consideration by the two governments, aims to address the shortage of manpower in the GCC; Morocco and Jordan would bring 300,000 troops in exchange for financial aid from the Gulf countries. The GCC and Jordan and Morocco reportedly agreed to a framework for a strategic partnership over a year ago. Algeria. More than twenty-two million Algerians will head to the polls today to choose the next Algerian head of state. While incumbent President Bouteflika seeks a fourth term and is widely expected to win the upcoming elections while the leading opponent, former prime minister Ali Benflis, hopes for an unlikely last-minute comeback. Campaigning ended last Sunday after Bouteflika accused Benflis of “terrorism through television” for making statements about possible electoral frauds. Libya. Jordan’s ambassador to Libya, Fawaz al-Aitan, was kidnapped by gunmen on Tuesday, according to an announcement made by Libya’s foreign ministry. The kidnappers called the ambassador’s wife following the abduction and told her that al-Aitan was in good health. Al-Aitan was the first Arab ambassador to be posted in Libya after the revolution. Turkey. A delegation of Twitter executives met with government representatives this week to discuss the future of social media access in the country after Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan dubbed it “the worst menace to society.” While the government presented a long list of demands, including the establishment of a Turkish company office and the company’s revelation of certain users. Twitter reportedly agreed to make certain posts invisible to domestic Turkish audiences. Bahrain. Eleven Shiite demonstrators were sentenced to five years in jail following a clash with police forces last year near the capital. This is the last case in a long series of arrests of Shiites following the February 2011 unrest. Kuwait. According to speaker of the parliament Marzouk al-Ghanem, Kuwaiti prime minister al-Sabah said videotapes showing alleged senior former officials organizing a coup were “tampered with.” Kuwait’s information ministry announced a gag order this week barring any statements to the media regarding an ongoing investigation into the existence of a videotape that allegedly contains sensitive information about former prime minister Sheikh Nasser Al Mohammed Al Ahmad Al Sabah and Jasem Al Khorafi, the former speaker of the parliament. Egypt. Egypt’s former defense minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi submitted eight times the amount of signatures required to the election commission on Monday, finalizing his presidential candidacy. Al-Sisi’s likely rival is Hamdeen Sabahi, who came in third during the first round of 2012 elections eventually won by Morsi.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    GCC Nations: Protections and Risks
    With the exception of Yemen, the member nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council range from prosperous to extremely rich—but they are also vulnerable to security threats from terrorists and from Iran. The gathering in Syria of perhaps 25,000 jihadis, the Iranian nuclear weapons program, and Iranian subversion are the major perils they face, but the risks associated with such challenges are magnified when their major outside ally, the United States, appears determined to reduce its role in the region. The GCC states have reacted to these risks by increasing their military budgets, and this week’s news includes this story from the newspaper The National in the UAE: “Saudi Arabia becomes world’s fourth biggest military spender” after the United States, China, and Russia in 2013. Saudi expenditures now reach $67 billion, the story says. The UAE is now 15th in global expenditures on defense, at an estimated $19 billion, according to the source of all these numbers, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. But this week the GCC states took another step: they appear to have invited Jordan and Morocco to send troops to help defend them. According to a Moroccan newspaper report carried in Defense News, the GCC envisions up to 300,000 troops, in exchange for which their governments will be given additional foreign aid. This is not at all unprecedented, and there are two explanations for it: the perceived quality of their troops, especially those of Jordan, and their own population levels. After all, Qatar has only about 225,000 citizens; the rest of its 2 million inhabitants are foreign workers. The UAE has perhaps 900,000 citizens among its 6 million inhabitants. These are small bases upon which to build capable militaries. Moreover, the practice of importing foreign workers to do jobs the local citizens cannot or will not do is well established. It works in commerce, so why not military affairs? And given that any Jordanian or Moroccan soldiers will speak Arabic and be Muslims, their presence may not present difficult cultural clashes. Because they will not be from any one of the GCC nations, they may help form a unified defense force that can serve the GCC governments without arousing the tensions among them that could result from having a neighbor’s soldiers on your territory. Yet there are risks that the GCC governments would do well to consider. In Bahrain, the use of foreign personnel to repress domestic political protests has aroused great resentment. In part, this was because the protesters are Shia and the imported policemen are Sunni, as are the government and royal family of Bahrain. Here is a VOA story from 2011: According to analysts and Bahraini human rights activists, Bahrain’s government has been recruiting former soldiers and policemen from Pakistan at a steady rate to bolster the security forces. Former CIA officer Bruce Riedel, who has extensive experience in South Asia, says Bahrain has been recruiting Pakistani veterans for decades.  But he says the eruption of the pro-democracy demonstrations in the Gulf state in March has sparked a sharp increase in the recruiting. "This winter, when the very serious demonstrations began and it looked like the regime might even be toppled at a certain point, their hiring of mercenaries went up substantially," said Riedel. "And they began sending out basically want ads in major Pakistani newspapers advertising well-paying jobs in the Bahraini police and the Bahraini National Guard for any experienced soldier or policeman in Pakistan." Using foreign troops and policemen to control citizens who are protesting human rights violations and political repression is a formula for trouble. In any country this will stoke nationalism and resentment. Riedel’s term “mercenaries” is tough, but warranted. The GCC leaders would be smarter to use any foreign troops exclusively as soldiers present to help defend member states against foreign aggression or subversion. This could include defending borders and critical infrastructure targets, for example, but should not include police functions resulting from tensions between citizens and their governments. Using these foreign security officers as police would be a dangerous move, to be avoided at all costs.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Standing Firm --To Blame Israel
    Several well-known members of America’s foreign policy establishment have just published an open letter to Secretary of State Kerry, entitled “Stand Firm, John Kerry.” And firm they are, in blaming Israel for every problem in the peace negotiations. Criticism of Israel and of the policies of the Netanyahu government is certainly fair, whether from the left or the right. But the criticisms adduced here are not. Why not? The authors’ (Zbigniew Brzezinki, Carla Hills, Lee Hamilton, Thomas Pickering, Frank Carlucci, and Henry Siegman) first point is that the “enlargement” of Israeli settlements is the central problem in getting to peace. They propose stopping all negotiations until settlement “enlargement” ends. One problem with this approach is that it is the Palestinians, after all, who want to change the current situation, end the occupation, and get a sovereign state, so halting all diplomatic activity would seem to punish the party the authors’ wish to help. But there’s a deeper problem: there is no “enlargement” of Israeli settlements. There is population growth, especially in the major blocs that Israeli will obviously keep in any final agreement. But enlargement, which logically means physical expansion, is not the problem and is rare in the West Bank settlements. The authors don’t seem to know this. Their second point deals with “Palestinian incitement,” a term long used by American officials to describe anti-Semitic statements and actions that glorify terror and terrorists—naming schools and parks after them for example. But the authors’ say nothing about this; they do not mention Palestinian anti-Semitism or the glorification of terror. They say instead that Israel sees “various Palestinian claims to all of historic Palestine constitute incitement.” This is plain wrong. Here’s what Palestinian “incitement” means, as described by David Pollock of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy: In a particularly striking case, at the end of 2012, the Fatah Facebook page posted an image of Dalal Mughrabi, a female terrorist who participated in the deadliest attack in Israel’s history -- the killing of 37 civilians in the 1978 Coastal Road Massacre. The image was posted with the declaration: ’On this day in 1959 Martyr (Shahida) Dalal Mughrabi was born, hero of the ’Martyr Kamal Adwan’ mission, bride of Jaffa and the gentle energizing force of Fatah.’ Another theme of recent official Palestinian incitement is the demonisation of Israelis and Jews, often as animals. For example, on 9 January 2012 PA television broadcast a speech by a Palestinian Imam, in the presence of the PA Minister of Religious Affairs, referring to the Jews as ’apes and pigs’ and repeating the gharqad hadith, a traditional Muslim text about Muslims killing Jews hiding behind trees and rocks, because ’Judgment Day will not come before you fight the Jews.’ The authors should know this kind of incitement happens constantly, and should demand that it end. Then comes a paragraph about Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish State, as to which the authors are a bit ambiguous. They conclude that “Palestinian recognition of Israel as a Jewish state, provided it grants full and equal rights to its non-Jewish citizens, would not negate the Palestinian national narrative.” They should have acknowledged that Israel does grant full and equal rights to non-Jewish citizens. There is no other country in the region with a substantial Christian population from which those Christian citizens are not fleeing, and that might have been noted. And Muslims in Israel vote in fully free elections; where else in the region does that truly happen? Then comes a paragraph on “Israeli security,” which is devoted to condemning “Illegal West Bank land grabs”—as if Israel had no security problems at all. With respect to the Jordan Valley, they bemoan the impression that the United States takes Israeli security concerns there seriously. They do not acknowledge something every serious expert knows: that the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan also has grave concerns about security in the Jordan Valley and does not (repeat, not) want to see a quick withdrawal of Israeli forces from that long border. Security in the West Bank is a serious issue, but the open letter does not discuss the problem in a serious way. The authors conclude that “the terms for a peace accord advanced by Netanyahu’s government, whether regarding territory, borders, security, resources, refugees or the location of the Palestinian state’s capital, require compromises of Palestinian territory and sovereignty on the Palestinian side of the June 6, 1967, line. They do not reflect any Israeli compromises….” This is remarkable. It’s obvious that tens of thousands, perhaps one hundred thousand or more, Israeli settlers would have to be uprooted in any peace deal remotely like the ones proposed by Israel at Camp David in 2000 and after Annapolis in 2008. The authors do not mention those proposals—nor the fact that the PLO rejected them. Nor the massive uprooting of citizens that Israel would have to undertake. After his dozen trips to Israel as secretary of state, John Kerry can be presumed to know better than the authors of this open letter what’s going on in the “peace process.” Let’s hope he does “stand firm” against an analysis that blames one side exclusively for the failure to make peace, and ignores the history and complexities of the negotiations.  
  • Israel
    This Week: Syria’s Machinations, Egypt’s Presidency, and Iran’s Bravado
    Significant Developments Syria. Russia today presented a draft resolution on Syrian humanitarian aid access that includes a condemnation of “terrorism” to the UN Security Council. Yesterday, Russian deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov rejected a proposed resolution on humanitarian aid access drafted by Australia, Jordan, and Luxembourg that demanded “all parties, in particular the Syrian authorities, immediately end the sieges of the Old City of Homs.” Gatilov denounced the Western-backed resolution as an attempt to lay the groundwork for a military strike against Bashar al-Assad’s government if its demands are not met. Meanwhile, the humanitarian ceasefire in Homs was extended for an additional three days today. Over 1400 men, women, and children have been evacuated from besieged parts of Homs since the ceasefire first took effect last Friday. The Syrian opposition presented a plan for a post-war Syria yesterday in Geneva, calling for a transitional governing body that would oversee a total ceasefire under UN monitoring. All foreign fighters would be driven out of Syria under the plan. The opposition’s confidential draft, shown to international mediator Lakhdar Brahimi, made no mention of the fate of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian government delegation has not officially responded to the proposal yet, although it has suggested that negotiations need to focus first on fighting terrorism. Syrian deputy foreign minister Faisal Mekdad said that, “We are not closed to discussing any issue. But we have to discuss them one by one.” The exchange came after a discouraging beginning to the second round of talks on Monday. International mediator Lakhdar Brahimi is scheduled to meet with Russian and U.S. officials today in an effort to give new momentum to the talks. Meanwhile, Sigrid Kaag, head of the UN-Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons mission overseeing the dismantling of Syria’s chemical arsenal, has urged the Assad regime to speed up operations. This happened after the government missed two important deadlines in December and early February, leading to western concerns of a deliberate slow-down by the regime. Egypt. Russian president Vladimir Putin today endorsed field marshal Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to become Egypt’s next president. In his first visit outside of Egypt since coming to power in early July, Sisi is visitng Moscow to negotiate a $2 billion arms deal with Russia. According to state-owned al-Ahram, Russia would be the tentative broker of a deal funded mainly by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, the State Department disclosed yesterday that Egyptian authorities have detained a local U.S. embassy employee for almost three weeks without any official charges. American officials say that Ahmed Aleiba, an Egyptian citizen who works for the American embassy was arrested on January 25. According to military-aligned newspaper al-Watan, Aleiba had arranged meetings between U.S. government officials and Muslim Brotherhood deputy head Khairat el-Shater last July. Iran. Iran celebrated the thirty-fifth anniversary of the Islamic Revolution on Tuesday. President Hassan Rouhani told a crowd of tens of thousans of Iranians gathered for celebrations that “Iran will maintain a permanent nuclear program.” Throughout his remarks, Rouhani emphasized a purported absence of a military option against Iran by any western country and called for Iran to move past the internal divisions that emerged following Ahmadinejad’s contested reelection in 2009. His statements came shortly after International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors signaled on Monday their determination to get to the bottom of allegations that Iran may have worked on a nuclear bomb design. Meanwhile, Iranian defense minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan announced on Monday the successful test launch of two new missiles, including a long-range missile capable of evading radar. U.S. Foreign Policy Jordan. King Abdullah of Jordan will meet President Obama in California tomorrow. Abdullah met yesterday with Vice President Joe Biden and Congressional leaders during his visit to Washington. According to the White House, Abdullah and Biden discussed achieving a sustainable political solution in Syria. The Jordanian monarch stressed the need for emergency humanitarian access following his meeting with Speaker John Boehner on Tuesday. The bilateral discussions are part of an administration outreach effort to Arab allies that also includes a visit by President Obama to Saudi Arabia in late March. See my take on this outreach here. Israel-Palestine. The White House announced yesterday that President Obama will host Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 3. Netanyahu is scheduled to address the 2014 AIPAC conference on March 4 in Washington. Meanwhile, Palestinian spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh stated on Tuesday that an Israeli-Palestinian agreement would be “useless” if the two parties were allowed to express reservations.  Abu Rudeineh said that the “use of the word ‘reservations’ bogs down the peace process and the use of this concept in the past has got the process stuck.” On Saturday, U.S. secretary of State John Kerry said Israeli and Palestinian leaders needed “to have the right to be able to have some objection.” While We Are Looking Elsewhere Yemen. President Abed Rabbou Mansur Hadi on Monday formally approved turning the country into a six-region federation. While the move was intended to grant the south more autonomy, it was immediately rejected by southerners pushing for secession. Opposition also came from northern Shia Houthi rebels on Tuesday, who said that the division of the republic does not distribute wealth evenly. Meanwhile, the Yemeni government handed twenty-nine al-Qaeda militants to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. According to the Yemeni defense ministry website, the fighters were Saudi nationals. Iraq. An instructor for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) that had been teaching militant recruits to make a car bomb accidentally set one off on Monday, killing twenty-one of the recruits in a blast. The blast brought the training camp’s exisitence to the attention of Iraqi authorities, who then arrested over twenty operatives. The late instructor may become a nominee for a posthumous Darwin Award. Kuwait. Following in Saudi footsteps, a member of Kuwait’s parliament, Nabil al-Fadl, proposed a law that would make Kuwaitis participating or instigating participation in conflicts abroad face up to thirty years in jail. The law would penalize members of the National Guard or police more heavily than civilians. In order to pass, the law will need to be approved by the emir, the government, and the parliament. Libya. The headquarters of Tripoli-based Libyan television channel al-Assema were rocked by three blasts yesterday morning. Al-Assema, known for its anti-Islamists stance, has been accused by Islamist groups of instigating demonstrations against the General National Congress. The attack comes after six journalists have been kidnapped in recent days in Tripoli. Israel-Palestine. A municipal planning committee gave preliminary approaval for a plan to build a Yeshiva in the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah. The news of the municipality’s action led Palestinian officials to accuse the Israeli government of efforts to undermines Secretary Kerry’s peace efforts.
  • United States
    The Obama Administration’s Upcoming Arab Outreach
    President Obama meets King Abdullah of Jordan on Friday in California. The president will also travel to Saudi Arabia in March, just after Secretary of State John Kerry makes a special stop in the United Arab Emirates. All three of these events are part of a larger whole: an attempt by the Obama administration to reassure key American Arab allies that the United States is not retreating from the Middle East or going soft on its leadership role in the world. This effort was exemplified by the extraordinary joint plea by Secretaries Hagel and Kerry recently at the Munich Security Conference to skeptical European partners. The upcoming diplomatic outreach by President Obama to U.S. Arab partners is positive and necessary. The critical question is: will it help smooth ruffled feathers? The White House should harbor no illusions that mere back-slapping and hand-holding will suffice. If Washington is saying: “The meeting is the message,” the Arabs will instead be asking: “What have you done for us lately, and where are you heading?” For the upcoming outreach to the Arabs to be truly effective, America’s top officials will need to bring compelling answers to three critical questions that their Arab partners will pose: First, Iran: “What is the Obama administration’s game plan for Iran?” President Obama and Secretary Kerry will doubtlessly stress their commitment to preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. That message won’t do. What the Arabs really want to know is whether or not Washington is seeking a much broader modus vivendi with Iran that will lead to a new and “more balanced” security architecture in the region. Is Washington going to continue to seek Iran’s isolation and containment? Or does the United States, as the Arabs now fear, seek to engage, temper, and ultimately reincorporate Iran into its old role as a pillar of Gulf stability? Second, Syria:  What is the United States’ objective in Syria? Is it to contain the fighting, continue to pursue some sort of diplomatic track with the regime it once called on to step down, and to give primacy to Syria’s weapons of mass destruction? Administration calls for Assad to step down as part of a political process, and confidential assurances that limited U.S. covert assistance is now underway, will do little to convince the Arabs that the administration does not seek to get by with as little involvement as possible. Indeed, it will lead Gulf Arabs to conclude that they should redouble their efforts to pour arms and money into Syria pursuing goals clearly not aligned with U.S. interests. Cautionary words by Obama or Kerry to the Arab allies will surely fall on deaf ears. Third, Egypt: President Obama’s silence on Egypt in his State of the Union did not go unnoticed in the Middle East, and is seen as a reflection of a hands-off approach to the Arab world’s most populous country, and main epicenter of the 2011 Arab uprisings. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the Emirates have all welcomed, mainly through dollar diplomacy, the July 3, 2013 coup (or military action as some prefer) that toppled the Morsi government. They will now want to know if Washington’s policy remains the one articulated by Secretary Kerry in his last visit to Egypt in November: that Egypt is on the road to democracy. If so, they will be pleased. Hints by Obama or Kerry to quietly urge restraint by Egypt’s military will be met by subtle admonitions by their Arab hosts—however unjustified—that countries that abandon their allies in times of trouble should remain silent when things then quiet down. When they meet with their Saudi, Jordanian, and Emirati interlocutors, Kerry and Obama will surely highlight their Sisyphusian efforts to advance the cause of Israeli-Palestinian peace, and the president will seek to assure them that he stands squarely behind his secretary of state’s mission to bring peace to the Holy Land. The Arabs will welcome these American peace efforts and encourage them to continue. But long gone are the days when Americans could engender Arab felicitations by focusing on the peace process. Today’s Middle East turmoil has brought about threats that U.S. allies see as existential. Unless Obama and Kerry can credibly answer pressing questions on Iran, Syria, and Egypt, whatever goodwill engendered by this outreach is likely to be as enduring as the jet contrails that will follow their aircraft when they depart their meetings.
  • Israel
    Weekend Reading: Sudanese Refugees in Jordan, Egyptian Insults, and Living Without Sabra Hummus
    IRIN reports on Jordan’s neglected refugees. Mada Masr presents “Lexicon of a revolution’s insults,” which looks at new terms and labels invented after the Egyptian uprising of January 25. For those participating in the boycott on Israel, here are ten brands that you would have to give up…
  • United States
    This Week: Syrian Accord, Iranian Discord, and an End to Egyptian Emergency
    Syria. The Syrian Opposition Coalition voted to attend the upcoming peace conference in Geneva, though the decision was conditional on the Syrian government allowing aid shipments to rebel held areas and the release of prisoners by government forces. According to Russian news sources, the Syrian government will send a delegation to Moscow on Monday to prepare for the upcoming international peace conference in Geneva. On Monday evening, the Syrian Opposition Coalition announced the selection of nine ministers that will be charged with administering territories currently in rebel hands. Meanwhile, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons met in The Hague today to discuss plans for the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. The organization had hoped Albania would accept the stockpiles and facilitate their destruction, but in the face of domestic opposition, the Albanian government turned down the request. Egypt. The government yesterday lifted the nation-wide state of emergency and the curfew that had been in place since August 14. Police immediately began replacing military units at checkpoints, although some military forces are slated to continue to protect embassies. Meanwhile, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and defense minister Sergei Shoigu visited Egypt yesterday and met with General al-Sisi to discuss a potential arms deal worth approximately $2 billion that would include helicopters and air defense equipment. On Monday, presidential adviser Mostafa Hegazy announced that a final draft of the constitution will be issued on December 3 and could be taken to a referendum in late December or early January with presidential elections possible before the summer. Iran. Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said today that he was hopeful regarding next Wednesday’s resumed talks in Geneva between Iran and the P5+1 countries. His comments follow yesterday’s International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) quarterly report stating that there has been no expansion of Iran’s nuclear program since Hassan Rouhani took office. The IAEA reached a deal with Iranian negotiators on Monday providing a framework that would provide the nuclear watchdog information on Iran’s nuclear research and “managed access” to sites including the Gachin uranium mine and the heavy water reactor at Arak. This weekend’s failed attempt to reach an interim deal between Iran and the P5+1 group has left both sides blaming the other: Secretary of State John Kerry claimed that Iran walked away from an agreement due to the concessions Iran would have to offer while Iranian foreign minister Zarif said on Monday that discord among the western powers and French recalcitrance had ended the talks. U.S. Foreign Policy U.S. Sanctions. Secretary of State John Kerry briefed the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday in an effort to forestall new Congressional sanctions legislation on Iran, arguing that it may damage the ongoing nuclear talks. Republican members expressed disappointment with the meeting. According to Representative Bob Corker, Kerry’s argument was “solely an emotional appeal” while Representative Mark Kirk called the classified briefing “anti-Israeli.” Kerry’s appearance before the committee was prompted by a recently passed House measure that would strengthen sanctions on Iran. UNESCO. Last Friday, the United States lost its voting privileges at UNESCO after cutting funding to the organization two years ago after the organization admitted Palestine as a full member. Per the organization’s constitution, any member state that fails to pay its dues for two consecutive years loses its right to vote. The United States was the largest benefactor of the organization providing $70 million annually, roughly 22 percent of UNESCO’s operating budget. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Libya. Libyan prime minister Ali Zeidan issued an appeal on Sunday for the populace to rise up against armed militias or else risk a foreign intervention in Libya. Speaking at a news conference, Zeidan warned that, “The international community cannot tolerate a state in the middle of the Mediterranean that is a source of violence, terrorism and murder.” Libya has been plagued by a growing number of armed militias responsible for attacks on security forces and the recent temporary abduction of the prime minister. Jordan. Jordan’s information minister expressed interest on Monday in his country possibly taking the available United Nations Security Council seat recently turned down by Saudi Arabia.  The seat is traditionally reserved for an Arab state and Jordan thus far is the most likely candidate, but the decision must be voted on by the General Assembly. Lebanon. The Lebanese government announced on Monday that it will file a complaint with the UN Security Council over the Israeli installation of surveillance equipment along the southern border between the two countries. Following a meeting of the Parliamentary Telecommunications Committee, several members of parliament remarked that the official complaint would only be the first step in dealing with an issue that “concerns our security, economy and daily life.” This Week in History: This week marks the ninth anniversary of the death of Yasser Arafat in Paris, France. As a student in Egypt, Arafat headed the Union of Palestinian students and was arrested in 1954 for supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. In the late 1950s, Arafat established the Fatah political party and the associated armed wing. By the early 1960s, he was leading a low intensity guerilla war against Israel. Following the 1967 War, Arafat emerged as a major force in Palestinian politics, becoming the chairman of the PLO when Fatah took over the organization. In the weeks leading up to Oslo, Arafat exchanged letters with then Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, recognizing the state of Israel and then signing the Oslo Accords soon after, for which he was a co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Soon after Arafat returned to Gaza and was subsequently elected president of the Palestinian Authority. His international standing fell with the outbreak of the second intifada after the failure of the Camp David peace summit in 2000. The War on Terror further sidelined him and the peace process, and concerns over ongoing terrorist attacks in Israel led the IDF to confine Arafat to his headquarters in Ramallah. In 2004, Arafat became ill and travelled to Paris for treatment; a month later he passed away under circumstances shrouded in controversy.