Israel

Significant Developments Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared poised to form a new government today with Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party, and Naftali Bennett, leader of the Habayit Hayehudi party. The coalition agreement is expected to be signed tomorrow. Lapid will become Israel’s finance minister and Bennett is set to be appointed minister of economy and trade. Tzipi Livni, head of the Hatnuah party, is also a part of the new government and will become the justice minister with a special role in negotiations with the Palestinians. The new coalition, to be formed just before President Obama visits Israel, will be the first to exclude the ultra-orthodox parties in over a decade. Syria. French foreign minister Laurent Fabius warned today that France and Britain will push the European Union to end an embargo on supplying weapons to the Syrian opposition. Meanwhile, Syrian government warplanes bombarded rebel positions throughout the country today, after mortar shells hit a residential area in Damascus on Wednesday, killing three people and wounding over fifty. On Saturday, Syrian rebels released twenty-one UN peacekeepers after holding them for three days. The peacekeepers had been monitoring the truce between Israel and Syria in the Golan Heights. Egypt. A fact-finding commission, established by Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi to look into the deaths of nearly nine hundred protestors during the revolution, concluded that the police were responsible for nearly all of the killings. Meanwhile, an Egyptian legal body representing Morsi appealed the Administrative Court’s ruling on Wednesday that suspended parliamentary elections. The Supreme Administrative Court will hold a hearing for the appeal on March 17. U.S. Foreign Policy Presidential Visit. The White House is in the final stages of preparation for President Obama’s trip next week to Israel, the West Bank, and Jordan. The president is set to arrive in Israel on Wednesday, March 20. He will spend three days in the region before returning to Washington. It will be the president’s first visit to Israel since taking office in 2008. Syria. According to Der Spiegel and the Guardian, U.S. trainers are assisting Syrian rebels in Jordan. Some of the Americans are reportedly uniformed, although it is unclear if they are from theUS military or from private firms. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. Lawmakers approved the new Tunisian government yesterday to serve as a caretaker until elections can be held later in the year. The approval of the new government was overshadowed by the death of Adel Kedhri, a twenty-seven year-old cigarette vendor, who set himself on fire on Tuesday, reportedly because of his dire economic circumstances. Bahrain. Thousands of protesters clashed with security forces in Manama today during demonstrations marking the second anniversary of the Saudi-led Gulf intervention in Bahrain’s Arab Spring inspired unrest. Two police officers were sentenced to ten years in prison on Tuesday for the fatal beating of a protester during the country’s unrest in 2011, which killed more than sixty people. The sentences are some of the harshest handed down against security forces for abuses during the unrest. Kuwait-Iraq. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged Iraq yesterday to remove all obstacles hindering the completion of the Iraq-Kuwait Boundary Maintenance Project. On Monday, Kuwait expressed dismay over a clash between Iraqi protesters and security forces in the border town of Um Qasr, which disrupted the process of repairing border markers. Iraq. Explosions ripped through Baghdad today killing at least twenty-five people. No one has claimed responsibility yet for the seemingly coordinated attacks consisting of two car bombs, a suicide bomber, and an raid against the Justice Ministry. Attacks throughout Iraq killed another twelve people on Monday. This Week in History Next week marks the tenth anniversary of the war in Iraq. On March 20, 2003, U.S.-led forces initiated an air campaign against Iraq with the goal of toppling Saddam Hussein. The ground invasion, mostly from the south, began soon after. President George W. Bush declared an end to major combat on May 1, 2003 and Saddam Hussein was captured on December 13, 2003. See CFR president Richard Haass’ retrospective on the war in an interview with CFR.org.  

“The Lebanese are asking this government to unmask its true face and say to the Arabs and the world that it is the government of Bashar Assad and Hezbollah…in Lebanon.” –Former Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri “It is a bad decision for the president and bolsters the feeling that his decisions are never thought out and that his advisers are not competent.” –Mustafa Kamel al-Sayyed, a Cairo University professor on the Egyptian courts’ decision to delay parliamentary elections “It is a matter of surprise that some Western and regional countries as well as their media outlets are trying to cast a negative image on the talks, which had positive conclusions.” –Iranian spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast “Any intervention will not make things better…Europe and the United States and others are going to pay the price sooner or later with the instability in this region.” –Syrian president Bashar al-Assad “They have grassroots support and they fight on home turf…Hezbollah worries me, to tell the truth.” –Yitfach, an Israeli army captain on concerns about fighting Hezbollah again “We want to know what the ministry wants. We will not confront the people any more. The protesters are our relatives. We are losing our people and our brothers. My brother is a protester.” –An Egyptian police officer striking in protest of being used as a political tool “This is what apartheid looks like…Separate bus lines for Palestinians and Jews prove that democracy and occupation can’t coexist.” –Israeli lawmaker Zehava Galon, who heads the leftist Meretz party in parliament “There’s no Hamas, no Islamic Jihad and no Fatah when it comes to the sons of the Palestinian people, our heroic prisoners.” –A Palestinian activist shouted during a protest in Ramallah

“Friday has become a day of self-imposed imprisonment.” – Riham Ibrahim, Egyptian housewife “Presenting money and weapons to al Qaeda (in Syria) by Qatar and Turkey is a declaration of armed action against Iraq…The weapons will reach Iraqi chests for sure.” – Iraqi transport minister Hadi al-Amiri “Morsi’s decision to go for parliamentary elections amidst severe societal polarization and eroding state authority is a recipe for disaster.” –Mohammed ElBaradei, the leader of Egypt’s Constitution Party “I tell them that if our kebabs were 100 percent meat and our rice was Iranian, I’d have to triple my prices…And if they keep complaining, I just blame it on sanctions.” –Hesham, an Iranian restaurant owner about complaints from his customers “Even with all the discounts on offer, few people come and we have to close the shop early.” –Ahmed al-Sherif, owner of a clothing store near Cairo’s Tahrir Square “This is an Israeli interest…It’s not a favor to the Palestinians, it’s not a favor to the Arab world, and it’s not a favor to the president of the United States…There is no status quo…Stagnation and stalemate means deterioration; this is something we cannot afford.” –Tzipi Livni, speaking about the need for a Palestinian state upon agreeing to join Prime Minister Netanyahu’s next coalition government “It is the first time to feel we are living in a war condition…Today I saw what was happening in Baghdad in my city, Damascus. This is not the Damascus I know.” –30-year-old Anas, a Damascene whose home is right behind Assad’s Baath party headquarters “There could never be disagreement between the Armed Forces and the presidency, because the president and the Armed Forces are not two factions, they are one, and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces is extremely professional.” –Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi in an interview with state TV “Just like Zionism, anti-Semitism and fascism, it becomes unavoidable that Islamophobia must be regarded as a crime against humanity.” –Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaking at the “Fifth Alliance of Civilizations Forum” in Vienna’s Hofburg Palace

Significant Developments Iran. Negotiators from Iran and the P5+1 countries, meeting for the first time since June, agreed yesterday in Kazakhstan to hold further meetings on Iran’s nuclear program in March and April. The upcoming meetings will focus on a P5+1 proposal floated in Almaty that reportedly offers some sanctions relief in exchange for Iran “significantly” restricting its accumulation of medium-enriched uranium, suspending (but not shutting down) its enrichment efforts at the Fordo plant, and allowing more regular and thorough monitoring access from the International Atomic Energy Agency. The March meeting will be held at the technical experts level, with the April meeting convened by high-level negotiators. Syria. Syria’s political opposition postponed a planned March 2 meeting to elect a prime minister for a transitional government in rebel-controlled areas. The postponement came just hours after the Friends of Syria group, meeting in Rome today, announced new non-lethal assistance for the rebels, stopping short of offering weapons. Meanwhile, UN High Commissioner for refugees Antonio Guterres told the UN Security Council yesterday that the number of Syrians who have fled the country may surpass the one million mark by April. Ten thousand Syrian refugees reportedly arrived in Jordan in a seventy-two hour span earlier this week. Syrian army ballistic missile strikes on Aleppo this week appeared to herald a new and more brutal phase in the country’s fighting.  Human Rights Watch called the missile strikes into residential neighborhoods, which killed over 140 people, “a new low” in the war. West Bank. Gaza militants fired a rocket into southern Israel on Tuesday in the first such attack since a November truce ended serious cross-border fighting. A sub-group of the Fatah-affiliated militant group, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, claimed responsibility and called it a “first response” to the death of Arafat Jaradat, a Palestinian who died on Saturday while in Israeli custody in the West Bank. Israeli security services claimed Jaradat died from cardiac arrest due to health problems predating his arrest last week. However, the Palestinian Authority claimed that he was tortured prior to being killed. More than ten thousand people turned out Monday for Jaradat’s funeral procession from Hebron to the village of Sa’ir. Violent clashes also erupted between Palestinians and Israeli soldiers Monday afternoon at Rachel’s Tomb near Bethlehem when protesters reportedly threw rocks and gasoline bombs at Israeli soldiers who responded with tear gas, rubber bullets, water cannons, and some live ammunition. Two Palestinian teenagers were seriously injured. U.S. Foreign Policy Syria. Secretary of State John Kerry announced today that the United States will for the first time provide nonlethal battlefield aid consisting of food and medicine to the Syrian rebels. Secretary Kerry also announced an additional sixty million dollars in U.S. financial aid to help the Syrian Opposition Coalition provide basic services. The New York Times reported today that the United States is now helping to train rebels at a base in the region. Earlier in the week Kerry, speaking in London on his first foreign trip as Secretary of State, hinted at a qualitative shift in U.S. assistance to the rebels, saying the U.S. would not let the opposition “dangling in the wind.” Iran. U.S. congressional lawmakers introduced new legislation yesterday to considerably increase sanctions against Iran. The move came as negotiators from Iran and the P5+1 countries reportedly discussed a proposal to loosen the international sanctions regime (see above). The Nuclear Iran Prevention Act was introduced by top-ranking Republican and Democrat members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and has been described as a step towards a complete U.S. trade embargo on Iran. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. President Moncef Marzouki testified this morning before a judge conducting an investigation into the murder of Chokri Belaid, a leading Tunisian opposition figure. Belaid’s killing on February 6 sparked Tunisia’s largest street demonstrations since the overthrow of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali over two years ago. Tunisian interior minister and prime minister designate Ali Larayedh announced on Tuesday that four suspects have been arrested and that the killer has been identified but is still on the run. Tunisia’s ruling Islamist party Ennahda agreed this week to appoint political independents to head the key interior, foreign, and defense ministries in a concession to the opposition. Egypt. Egypt’s largest opposition coalition, the National Salvation Front (NSF), rejected the State Department’s call yesterday to participate in the parliamentary elections slated to begin April 22. The NSF declared that the State Department’s request was an attempt to give legitimacy to Egypt president Mohammed Morsi’s government. The NSF, an umbrella group of liberal and leftist parties, had announced their election boycott on Tuesday. Iraq-Kuwait. An Iraqi airliner conducted the first flight between Iraq and Kuwait since Saddam Hussein’s invasion of the neighboring country in 1990. Iraq’s foreign and transportation ministers travelled on the symbolic flight, hailed it as a sign of improvement in relations between the two countries. Turkey. Turkish newspaper Sabah reported today that eleven members of Al Qaeda were arrested in Istanbul. The terrorists were equipped with twenty-two kilograms of explosives and guns and were reportedly targeting the U.S. embassy, synagogues, and churches around Turkey. This Week in History This week marks both the fifty-second anniversary of Kuwaiti independence and the twenty-second anniversary of the country’s liberation from Iraqi occupation. On February 25, 1950, Sheikh Abdullah Al-Salem Al-Sabah ascended to power, an event that Kuwait chooses to mark by designating February 25 as National Day, despite the fact that the country actually won its independence from the British on June 19, 1961. On February 26, 1991, the U.S.-led coalition of thirty-four countries drove out remaining Iraqi forces that had occupied Kuwait the previous August.  

Negotiation? Done it. Violence? Check. Spoken openly of a one-state solution? Already part of the playbook. Declared statehood?  A few times.  UN recognition?  In the bag.  In the last almost decade and a half, the Palestinians have tried almost everything to force the Israelis to be more forthcoming on the issues that divide them—settlements, refugees, Jerusalem—all to no avail.  For a combination of political reasons and security concerns the Israeli leaders have resisted the pressure, arguing either that the Palestinians cannot deliver or that Israel will not respond to threats. Indeed, the Israelis have been ruthlessly effective in demonstrating to the Palestinians that these tactics do not work through violence, settlements, and economic pressure.  The result has been a crippled Palestinian leadership and bred despair among both West Bankers and Gazans. What then should the Palestinians do?  There are dire warnings that a third  intifada—which observers have been predicting for years—is imminent. The death of a young Palestinian activist, Arafat Jaradat, at Israel’s Megiddo prison over the weekend led to clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces and settler violence heightened these concerns, but the fact of the matter is that the situation in the West Bank has been deteriorating for months.  Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas should do what he can to put a lid on the tension, but not because the Israeli government has made “an unequivocal demand to calm the territory” along with the promise of $100 million in tax revenue that Israel collects on behalf of the Palestinians.  Rather, there is a potentially more effective way for the Palestinian leadership to deal with their present circumstances:  Abbas should declare the Palestinian Authority (PA) closed for business.  The benefits of dissolving the PA are twofold.  First, the Palestinians might actually create a more favorable political environment for negotiations.  Second, if it does not force Israel’s hand, the end of the Palestinian Authority will finally bring Oslo (remember that?) and the fiction of Palestinian sovereignty in the West Bank to an end. There is little doubt that twenty years ago when Yair Hirschfeld, Ron Pundik, and Ahmed Qurei dreamed up the Oslo Accords, which was a negotiating process, they hoped the Palestinian Authority would be the basis for the state that was to emerge in parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip by May 1999. Yet Oslo made Palestinian statehood conditional upon Israeli consent and while Yasser Arafat proved to be a wholly irresponsible and inappropriate partner for peace and Abbas is perennially weak, Israel has done much to thwart what the Palestinian Authority was meant to do. First and foremost for the Israelis, the PA was a way of outsourcing the security functions of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.  By the time the first intifada wound down in the early 1990s, Israelis had grown weary of policing the occupied territories and Israel’s leaders were worried that putting down the uprising had sapped the IDF’s ability to perform its core functions, protecting the country from attack. To paraphrase the late Yitzhak Rabin, “the PA would be there so we wouldn’t have to be.”  As a result, an elaborate scheme of security cooperation was built into the follow-on to the original Oslo Accords. The arrangements worked well for a while, but as time went on and the immediate promise and optimism of Oslo faded, the Palestinians were increasingly unwilling to do the Israelis’ bidding on security.  The first crack came in September 1996, pitting Palestinian paramilitary police against IDF soldiers.  Despite efforts to re-establish security cooperation, the damage was done and whatever trust that had once existed between Israeli and Palestinian security forces was badly frayed.  When the second intifada erupted in late 2000, Israel demanded that the PA “do more” to establish security even as the IDF systematically undermined the Palestinians’ ability to establish order. Of course, by that time Arafat had come to believe that he had more to gain from the violence than from upholding Oslo, which from the perspective of the vast majority of Palestinians had been an abject failure.  To be sure, there was a semblance of Palestinian self-government, but in the seven years between the time the Israelis and Palestinians initialed Oslo and the second intifada, the number of Israeli settlers grew considerably, leading Palestinians to conclude that the endless and inconclusive negotiations had been nothing more than a ruse. The Palestinian Authority has limped along since the end of the second intifada and Arafat’s death in 2004.  Its functions are limited, Abbas is an afterthought in the region, and the prospects for a Palestinian-Israeli breakthrough are dimmer than ever.  Declaring an end to the PA will either jolt the Israelis out of their complacency or lay bare the actual situation in the West Bank in which Israel has tightened its grip on the land that was supposed to be Palestine.  By proclaiming the end of the Palestinian Authority, the Palestinians would be saying to the Israelis, “If you want to occupy the West Bank, it is yours, but do not expect us to administer it for you.”  The logic of dissolving the Palestinian Authority is so clear that one wonders why Abbas has not taken this step.  After all, the PA is now little more than a vehicle to employ hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who draw their salaries and livelihoods from it and the international donors on which it depends.  The idea that they could once again be primarily responsible for the Palestinian population should be enough to scare the Israelis into negotiation. In the end, however, Abbas and his deputies are not going to put the Palestinian Authority out of business and hand the keys of the Muqata’a over to IDF commanders.  Despite its decrepit state, the PA serves several important functions for them.  Whatever shreds of power, international prestige, and riches Palestinian leaders in the West Bank still enjoy, they flow from the Palestinian Authority.  It is a classic case of politicians doing something in their parochial interest that leads to a suboptimal outcome for the people they represent.  For the rest of us, it just means that the fiction of Palestinian sovereignty and the policy distortions that come with it will continue.  

Significant Developments Egypt. President Mohammed Morsi issued a decree last night calling for parliamentary elections to begin April 27 and end in late June. The vote will take place in four stages across different regions dues to a shortage of electoral supervisors. The new parliament will then convene for the first time on July 6. A spokesman for the opposition umbrella group, the National Salvation Front, said that it would decide whether or not to boycott the elections early next week. The opposition is unhappy at Morsi’s call for elections amidst political turmoil and that that electoral laws passed by the Islamist-dominated interim parliament are slanted towards the Muslim Brotherhood. Syria. Three car bombings rocked Damascus yesterday, including a massive explosion near Syria’s ruling party headquarters, killing over fifty people. The state-sponsored Syrian Arab News Agency blamed the attack on terrorists while a spokesman for the Free Syrian Army (FSA) denied any involvement. Meanwhile, FSA chief of staff Brigadier General Salim Idriss gave Hezbollah a forty-eight hours deadline on Wednesday in which to cease its military operations in Syria or face retaliation against Hezbollah targets inside Lebanon. The threat came after several days of fighting between Syrian rebels and Hezbollah militants around several small villages near the Syrian-Lebanese border. Tunisia. Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki asked Interior Minister Ali Larayedh today to form a new government within the next two weeks. Larayedh, a hardliner from Tunisia’s ruling Islamist party Ennahda, was selected in an overnight party meeting yesterday after Tunisian prime minister Hamadi Jebali resigned on Tuesday. Jebali apologized to the Tunisian people in a televised address last night for “failing and disappointing” after his own party rejected his proposal form a technocrat cabinet. U.S. Foreign Policy The State Department announced on Tuesday that John Kerry’s first trip as secretary of state will include the Middle East. Kerry departs on Tuesday for Great Britain, Germany, France, and Rome, after which he will travel on to Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. His entire trip will last from February 24 to March 6.  While We Were Looking Elsewhere Israel. Hatnuah party chief Tzipi Livni signed a coalition agreement with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, making her Hatnuah party Likud Beiteinu’s first coalition partner. Livni is slated to join Netanyahu’s government as justice minister and Israel’s chief negotiator with the Palestinians. The agreement reportedly stipulates that any deal Livni might reach with the Palestinians would be subject to approval by the cabinet, the Knesset, and possibly a popular voter referendum. Iran. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported yesterday that Iran has begun installing newer and more efficient equipment at its main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. The news came on the same day that a French foreign ministry spokesman confirmed that the P5+1 will make a new negotiating offer with a “significant new element” at the upcoming round of nuclear talks to be held in Kazakhstan on February 26. Palestine. Palestinian protesters clashed with Israeli security forces today in Jerusalem’s Old City and in the West Bank in demonstrations over four imprisoned Palestinians who have been on extended hunger strikes. The Palestinian deputy minister for detainee affairs, Ziad Abu Ein, warned that “if any of the prisoners die, it will set the occupied territories on fire.” Yemen. Three people were shot dead by Yemeni police today as they headed to a rally for southern independence in Aden. The deaths followed clashes between government forces and southern independence movement members yesterday that interrupted a celebration of the first anniversary of Yemen’s presidential election. This Week in History Thursday marked the ninety-second anniversary of the coup that brought Reza Khan, later to be known as Reza Shah Pahlavi, to power in Persia. On February 21, 1921, Reza Khan’s forces of 1,200 men occupied Teheran and forced the dissolution of the previous government. In the aftermath, he was appointed commander of the military and minister of war. A few years later, Reza Khan ousted the country’s titular head and founded the Pahlavi Dynasty. In 1935 the shah changed the country’s name from Persia to Iran

Lost in all the reporting and blogging about President Obama’s planned March visit to Israel were the first phone calls his new Secretary of State, John Kerry, made even before entering office.  Even before figuring out how to use his new email, learning the way to the cafeteria, and filling out “Emergency Contact” forms, Secretary Kerry called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli President Shimon Peres and president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.  Perhaps America’s new chief diplomat was merely extending a courtesy to important Middle East allies or maybe he was giving them a heads-up that the White House was going to announce the president’s visit to Israel and the West Bank or perchance Secretary Kerry wants to have a go at making peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Of these three possibilities, the second seems most likely, but word on the street is that the United States or at least the State Department is about to get back into the peace process game.  As one diplomat related, “Well, it is better than doing nothing.  Maybe Kerry will get lucky. You never know.”  Yes, indeed, you never know, but there are a few things the secretary of state should keep in mind as he declares that peace is possible within two years, begins his shuttle diplomacy, offers bridging proposals, admonishes the parties against unilateral actions, calls for a summit, builds confidence, secludes himself and negotiators at Wye River/Shepherdstown/Camp David, writes a road map, and declares his optimism that the parties are ready for a breakthrough: 1.     The Palestinians’ minimal requirements for peace—half of Jerusalem, return of Palestinian refugees, and a territorially contiguous state with all the attributes of sovereignty, the Israelis cannot deliver.  Even if some Israeli doves think dividing Jerusalem is a good idea, it is practically impossible given all the resources the Israelis have poured into absorbing the eastern part of the city into a greater municipality under exclusive Israeli control.  There could be allowances for some refugees to return to what is now Israel in a hypothetical peace agreement, but not in the large numbers the Palestinians demand.  And given their experience since the 2005 withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, which did not provide Israelis with any greater security (even as they continued to control Gaza), giving up West Bank territory to a weak Palestinian leadership seems like a strategic blunder. 2.     Israel’s minimal requirements for peace—retaining the strategic ridgeline of the Judean and Samarian hills, a presence in the Jordan Valley, and the demilitarization of the state of Palestine are non-starters for the Palestinians.  If the Palestinians were to agree to Israel’s minimal requirements they might as well agree to nothing at all.  The best they would get is a seat at the UN, which they practically have, and the short-terms hosannas of a cynical international community.  At worst, it would bring about a round of intra-Palestinian bloodletting as no doubt Hamas and other hardliners would work overtime to kill an agreement that did not hand the whole of historic Palestine over to the Palestinians. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is not ripe for resolution, as they say. There are, of course, policies that the United States can undertake to create an environment more conducive to serious negotiation, but Washington has neither the political will nor the leverage with either party to make that happen.  One would think that the demographic realities would move the Israelis, but the fact that there will be more Arabs between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea in the coming decades has not moved Israelis in large numbers to demand fundamental change in the status quo.  This has much to do with the fact that they cannot be assured of security if they withdraw, thereby making way for a Palestinian state.  The immediate result is deadlock, which it is not earth shattering to suggest makes it difficult to find an equitable solution to the conflict overtime. It is not clear why the new Secretary of State wants to wade into this morass of bleakness and frustration.  There has got be a better reason than “someone’s got to do it.”  I, for one, believe the secretary’s time is better spent de-escalating tensions between China and Japan in the East China Sea or attending to global climate change or working to prevent Egypt from melting down—important issues to which one can at least imagine a resolution.    

Mohamed A. El-Erian presents seven compelling reasons that Egypt’s leadership needs to adopt new, more cooperative approaches to solving the increasingly dire economic crisis on the banks of the Nile. The blog Religion and Politics in Bahrain discusses the latest attempt in Bahrain to reignite a national dialogue for the first time since summer of 2011. Brent Sasley, writing on the blog Mideast Matrix, offers his thoughts on the agenda for President Obama’s upcoming trip to Israel.

Significant Developments Tunisia. Tunisia’s ruling Islamist party Ennahda rejected its own prime minister’s proposal today to form a new government of technocrats following the assassination yesterday of Chokri Belaid, a prominent opposition politician. Belaid was gunned down outside his Tunis home immediately sparking massive nationwide protests. Hundreds of protesters attacked a police station in Tunis today after policemen employed teargas to ward off some twenty thousand protesters marching towards the Interior Ministry. Further unrest is expected tomorrow as the main trade union has called a general strike to coincide with Belaid’s funeral. Egypt. Egyptian police today beefed up security to leading liberal opposition figures Mohammed ElBaradei and Hamdeen Sabbahi after a hardline cleric called for their deaths yesterday. In an online clip of a religious television show, Al Azhar professor Mahmoud Shaaban declared that the leaders of the National Salvation Front would receive the death penalty under Islamic law. Egypt’s prime minister, Hesham Kandil, and spokesmen for the Muslim Brotherhood condemned the fatwa today, warning that such edicts could lead to sedition. Iran-Egypt. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Cairo yesterday in the first visit to Egypt by an Iranian leader in over three decades. Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi greeted Ahmadinejad, visiting Egypt to participate in an Organization of Islamic Cooperation summit, at Cairo international airport. Meanwhile, Al Azhar’s grand imam, Ahmed al-Tayeb, denounced the “spread of Shiism in Sunni lands” and demanded that Iran not interfere in the Gulf states in a statement following his meeting with the Iranian president. Ahmadinejad was mobbed by protesters after his visit to Al Azhar and the Al Hussein mosque; one protester tried to hit the president with a shoe. Syria. Syria’s rebels and regime forces continued today to engage in the most intense fighting Damascus has seen in weeks, exchanging gun and mortar fire in heavily populated neighborhoods. Meanwhile, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) suggested that both sides begin a dialogue to end the civil war. The OIC stopped short of calling on Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to leave. Earlier this week, the Syrian opposition backed opposition leader Sheikh Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib’s previous call to open discussions with Assad’s regime. The opposition coalition also dropped its earlier demand that Assad stand trial, urging him instead to resign and leave the country. U.S. Foreign Policy Obama to Israel. The White House announced on Tuesday that President Obama will visit Israel this spring for the first time since taking office. In announcing the visit, White House spokesman Jay Carney said that the president will also travel to Jordan and the West Bank. Israeli media sources report that the president will arrive in Israel on March 20, but the White House refused to discuss dates. Click here to see my recent analysis of the prospects for the president’s upcoming visit. Administration Syria Policy Divisions. The New York Times reported on Sunday that both former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and CIA Director David Petraeus recommended last summer that the United States arm and train the Syrian rebels but that the White House overruled them. The plan, reportedly developed by Petraeus and supported by Clinton, called for the United States to vet rebel groups and train fighters who would be supplies with guns. General Martin Dempsey testified today before the Senate Armed Services Committee that both he and Secretary of Defense Panetta also supported the plan.   While We Were Looking Elsewhere Israel. President Shimon Peres tapped Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu late Saturday night to form the next government. Netanyahu said he was looking to form the “widest possible national unity government.” He met today with Yair Lapid, the head of Yesh Atid and the surprise second-place finisher who won 19 of the Knesset’s 120 seats in Israel’s January 22 election. Netanyahu has twenty-eight days from last Saturday to form a coalition though he can request a fourteen day extension if necessary. Iran. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today rejected an offer of direct talks with the United States made by Vice President Joe Biden earlier this week. Khamenei told members of Iran’s air force that “Some naive people like the idea of negotiating with America, however, negotiations will not solve the problem.” Yemen. President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi announced yesterday that the much anticipated national dialogue to begin drafting a new constitution will begin March 18. The dialogue is part of the Gulf-brokered agreement that averted civil war in 2011 and pushed former president Ali Abdullah Saleh from office. However, Saleh still heads the General People’s Congress party, which is slated to field more than 20 percent of the dialogues’ participants. Nobel Prize winner Tawakkul Karman called on Tuesday for Saleh to be banned from politics, alleging that his continued political involvement is the main obstacle to Yemen’s transition. Kuwait. Three former members of the Kuwaiti parliament were sentenced to three years of hard labor on Tuesday for insulting the emir in public speeches in October 2012. The Public Prosecution Office has charged over twenty people with offending the emir since October; six of the defendants have thus far received prison terms. Bahrain. Thousands of protesters demonstrated in Manama against the Bahraini royal family on Wednesday. The protest comes less than a week before the Sunday beginning of a planned dialogue between opposition groups and the monarchy. This Week in History Tomorrow marks the fiftieth anniversary of Ba’ath party coup that ousted Iraqi president Abd al-Karim Qasim. On February 8, 1963, Colonel Abdul Salam Arif led the Iraqi Ba’ath party and other military dissidents in a two day violent struggle against pro-Qasim forces that ended with Qasim holed up in the Ministry of Defense. The newly formed National Council of the Revolutionary Command rejected Qasim’s offer to surrender on February 9 and instead captured him by force and executed him the same day. The coup resulted in the formation of the country’s first Ba’ath government.

The White House announced yesterday that Barack Obama will visit Israel in March, his first visit there as president. The decision reportedly follows a January 28 telephone conversation between the president, just starting his second term, and newly reelected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The visit is a welcome opportunity to reset the U.S.-Israel relationship for the next four years. It is significant that the visit was agreed to and announced even before Prime Minister Netanyahu had an opportunity to put together a new government and establish a new set of priorities and policies for the nineteenth Knesset. It suggests that the White House recognizes that with many Middle East policy challenges ahead on a vast array of regional issues—Iran, Syria, advancing Israeli-Palestinian peace—it is necessary to strengthen a core prerequisite—mutual trust—before the more intensive policy debate can proceed. To be sure, it is imperative that the United States and Israel, as allies, define their shared objectives together. But Obama’s upcoming visit needs to be less policy and more fundamental—a reaffirmation of the United States’ core connection to Israel, its safety, and desire to help a secure Israel realize its long-term dream of a peace with its neighbors that anchors the country’s long-term security and future in the region. The president will also visit Ramallah where he can reassure disenchanted Palestinians that the United States genuinely wants Palestine to emerge soon as an independent and democratic state living side by side with Israel in peace and security.  It is an opportunity for the United States to demonstrate that support for Israel and support for Palestine is not a zero-sum game. To the contrary, it must be win-win. Only a superpower that embraces both sides—and occasionally employs tough love in the advancement of larger shared objectives—can help the two sides achieve that which they cannot do alone. But this visit to both sides must be about the love. Obama’s visit to Israel provides the president an opportunity not only to demonstrate that he wishes to establish a new and invigorated relationship with Prime Minister Netanyahu, but to establish a relationship with an even more important partner: the Israeli and Palestinian people. Both sides suffer from a deep and well-earned pessimism about the possibilities about peace with the other. If indeed the president still believes that peace is both possible and necessary, this is a golden opportunity for him to make the case directly to these two war-weary populations.  If comprehensive peace is no longer his immediate objective, given the Middle East’s challenges and upheaval, then it is still critical that the president offers an understanding of the regional dynamics and a commitment to stay engaged with his friends as they struggle in the face of a worrisome future. In short, the president must demonstrate that he gets it from the perspective of the people on the ground. Just as some criticize the president for not visiting Israel during his first term, some will criticize Obama for going to Israel too early into his second term, before he has a clear set of policy choices he wishes Israelis, Palestinians, and others in the region to make. But this visit will be about something more basic: affirming genuine friendship, and establishing greater trust and a human connection. In doing so, he will demonstrate his commitment to remain engaged in the Middle East, not pivot away at the expense of a region where there is no such thing as benign neglect.

A few years ago, a Turkish contact in a position to know regaled me with stories about the inner workings of the ruling Justice and Development Party—who was up and who was down, the personality differences, and who was positioning himself to be the next prime minister (this was at a time when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s health was thought to be failing).  Most of this stuff was harmless gossip not to be taken seriously.  When we veered into more substantive matters of mutual interest, Turkey-Israel relations came up.  My interlocutor indicated that Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was the driving force behind the continued tension between Ankara and Jerusalem and that there was a growing awareness that while downgrading Turkey-Israel ties had been appropriate, a policy bordering on outright hostility was not benefiting Turkey even if its grievances had not been addressed. I took much of this as posturing for an ambitious young Turk who was telling this American what he thought I might want to hear.  I filed it away as such, believing that while Davutoglu had distinguished himself for being very tough on the Israelis even as he occasionally stretched credulity, calling the Mavi Marmara incident “Turkey’s 9/11” (had he forgotten al-Qaeda’s 2003 Istanbul bombing?), there was a broad consensus within Turkey about the quality of relations with Israel.  In addition, given Operation Cast Lead, the Davos “One Minute” incident, and the very fact that Israelis killed eight Turks and a Turkish American aboard the Mavi Marmara, there was no political payoff for the AKP—except perhaps in Washington—in repairing relations with the Israelis.  The decline in Turkey-Israel relations diminished Ankara’s ability to play a role in Arab-Israel diplomacy, but the domestic benefits of this state of affairs outweighed this particular consequence. Over the weekend, I was reminded of the conversation I had with my AKP contact when the editor of the Hurriyet Daily News tweeted an article his newspaper ran titled, “Why didn’t al-Assad even throw a pebble at Israel: Turkish FM.”  Perhaps I had made too much of my training and all that I had thought and written about the rationality of Turkey’s decision to downgrade its relations was just plain incorrect. Maybe Davutoglu has been driving the bus by himself on Israel all along.  During a visit to Belgrade, the foreign minister seemed to lament the fact that the embattled Assad did not retaliate for Israel’s January 30 strike on a convoy of antiaircraft weapons destined for Hezbollah, which also damaged a chemical weapons research facility, asking: Why didn’t the Syrian Army, which has been attacking its own innocent people for twenty-two months now from the air with jets and by land with tanks and artillery fire, respond to Israel’s operation? Why can’t al-Assad, who gave order to fire SCUD missiles at Aleppo, do anything against Israel? Typically, Davutoglu couched his criticism of Syria and Israel in the language of Muslim solidarity.  In and of itself, the statement is not outside the mainstream thinking of officialdom in the region.  After all, the Arab League condemned Israel’s action and part of Davutoglu’s grand strategic plan is to make Turkey a leader of the Muslim world, which means the foreign minister could not say anything less than what Arab League Secretary General Nabil al Araby would say.  Still, Davutoglu—the chief diplomat of a rising global power, EU aspirant, and longtime NATO partner—seemed blind to the differences between Israeli excesses of the past and the threat that Hezbollah and chemical weapons or some combination of the two pose to the region. Then in one of those moments when Davutoglu veers into absurdity, he implied that the Syrian and Israeli governments were working together: Is there a secret agreement between al-Assad and Israel? Wasn’t the Syrian army founded to protect its country and its people against this sort of aggression? The al-Assad regime only abuses. Why don’t you use the same power that you use against defenseless women against Israel, which you have seen as an enemy since its foundation. It is hard what to make of this statement.  Perhaps it is frustration with the fact that Assad’s military managed to down a Turkish F-4 operating off the Syrian coast last June, but has not come close to putting a scratch on Israeli aircraft in years. In 2003, Israeli jets punked Assad early one morning by rattling the windows of his summer palace near Latakia, bombed a Syria-based Islamic Jihad training camp the same year, pulled a repeat of the palace flyover in 2006, and wiped out Syria’s alleged nuclear program in 2007 all with impunity. Regardless of whether Davutoglu is frustrated or he actually believes—against all evidence—that there is a deal between the Israelis and the Syrians, his statements are nothing short of irresponsible.  Even if they resonate with some Turks and Arabs, the foreign minister’s performance in Belgrade only increases tension between Ankara and Jerusalem, further removes Turkey from regional diplomacy, and contributes to an unstable environment in the Eastern Mediterranean.  It will surely raise questions in Europe and the United States about Davutoglu himself who is often regarded as an extraordinarily talented geostrategic thinker, but who seems so blind with rage at Israel that he is willing to call for an escalation of regional violence and embrace the oddest of conspiracy theories.  

Significant Developments Syria. Israel reportedly conducted an airstrike inside Syria on Wednesday for the first time since 2007, igniting protests from the Assad regime as well as Syria’s allies Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. Conflicting reports have emerged about the target; U.S., Israeli, and Lebanese sources have been quoted claiming Israel struck a convoy carrying advanced SA-17 anti-aircraft weapons heading into Lebanon. Syrian sources claim that Israeli jets had bombed a defense research center near Damascus. Israel has declined to make any official comment on the strike. Syria’s ambassador in Beirut said that Damascus could take a “surprise decision” in response to the attack. Sheikh Ahmad Moaz al-Khatib, Syria’s opposition leader, suggested on Wednesday that he is willing to negotiate with Syrian president Bashar Assad’s regime to end the civil war. Al-Khatib’s unprecedented compromise proposal, conditioned on the release of thousands of prisoners, provoked outrage from some factions of the Syrian opposition. This led Al-Khatib to qualify that he was only expressing his own personal opinion, not that of the Syrian National Council.  Meanwhile, the United Nations reported on Wednesday that donor countries had pledged about $1.5 billion this week to help Syrian refugees. The amount exceeded the UN’s target, though the agency has yet to receive previously pledged funds. The UN also claims that if the humanitarian situation inside of Syria continues to deteriorate, the new funding would only sustain operations for several additional months. Egypt. Rival political groups held talks today under the auspices of Grand Imam Ahmed al-Tayyeb of Al Azhar. The unique meeting addressed Egypt’s recent political violence that has killed nearly sixty people. Secular opposition figures Mohammed ElBaradei and Amre Moussa of the recently formed National Salvation Front attended along with Saad Katatni, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party. The talks came a day after the National Salvation Front and the Islamist Nour Party called on Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi to form a national unity government. Morsi rejected the idea, however, saying a new government would only be formed in April after new parliamentary elections. Morsi said “there is a stable government working day and night in the interest of all Egyptians.” On Tuesday, Egypt’s top general, Defense Minister General Abdul Fattah el-Sisi, warned that Egypt’s political fractures could lead to the “collapse of the state.” His dire warning followed widespread violence that broke out last week in Cairo, Alexandria, and Suez. Ensuing riots that erupted in the city left at least thirty-nine civilians and two police officers dead. On Sunday, Morsi declared a month-long state of emergency in the three towns of Port Said, Suez, and Ismailia, leading to charges of Mubarak-like actions. Iran. Non-proliferation officials believe Iran intends to upgrade its nuclear enrichment equipment at Natanz, the main Iranian nuclear enrichment plant. Yukiya Amano, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, reportedly circulated a letter through the agency from Iranian officials on January 24 that stated that Iran was going to upgrade its centrifuge machines from IR1 models to the more reliable IR2M. The move would allow Iran to greatly accelerate its ability to enrich uranium. Meanwhile a spokesman for Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, expressed frustration and disappointment over Iran’s rejection of proposed negotiations on January 28 and 29 in Istanbul. EU officials have continuously proposed dates for negotiations since December, but Iran has yet to agree to new talks. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. The Yemeni army suspended a military offensive against an al Qaeda-linked stronghold yesterday in order to pursue negotiations to secure the release of three kidnapped Westerners. Eight thousand soldiers were engaged in the assault which began on Monday following the breakdown of initial efforts to free the hostages. Meanwhile, Yemeni authorities seized a boat in its territorial waters carrying a large amount of explosives and money that American officials claimed was sent from Iran for insurgents inside Yemen. Bahrain. Human Rights Watch accused Bahrain’s ruling family of prioritizing “repression over reform” in its World Report 2013 released today. The ruling family called for a national dialogue, which Sheikh Ali Salman, the leader of the main opposition party Al Wefaq, has reportedly welcomed. Meanwhile, a home-made remote-detonated bomb exploded in Bahrain’s capital, Manama, yesterday, wounding at least three police officers. Iraq. Gunmen killed two Iraqi soldiers and kidnapped three others in a series of attacks in Fallujah on Saturday after troops fired on a crowd of anti-government protesters killing seven people one day earlier. Friday’s deaths were the first in weeks of increasingly angry and volatile demonstrations calling for Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s resignation. A curfew was imposed in Fallujah Friday evening. Palestine. Hamas officials in Gaza decided yesterday to allow the Central Elections Commission (CEC) to begin voter registration in partial fulfillment of the much-delayed reconciliation deal between Hamas and Fatah. CEC chief Hanna Nasser said that he hopes efforts to begin registering new voters will begin in a week to ten days. Meanwhile, Israel announced yesterday that it will make a one-time payment of $100 million to the Palestinian Authority in response to the PA’s cash-strapped financial situation. Israel stopped delivering the monthly tax revenues to the PA after Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas went to the UN to upgrade Palestine to “observer state status” in October.