• Middle East and North Africa
    Israel and Saudi Arabia: Good Neighbor Policy
    The recent announcement that Egypt was returning control over Tiran and Sanafir islands in the Gulf of Aqaba to Saudi Arabia has gotten some attention, but deserves more. It is a moment that reveals much about current Middle Eastern politics. In 1950 the Saudis transferred control, but in their view never sovereignty, over the islands to Egypt to protect them from what it claimed was the threat of an Israeli takeover. During a visit to Egypt by King Salman this past week, control was transferred back. (There is a reasonably fierce debate in Egypt over whether in fact President Sisi has unconstitutionally abandoned sovereign territory-- or anyway as fierce as debates can be given repression and censorship in Egypt.) During the past few years we have heard repeatedly that relations between Israel and the Gulf Arab states were greatly improved because today they have common enemies in Iran and ISIS, and a common concern about the disappearance of American hegemony in the region. What happened with the two islands this week is proof that the improved relations really do exist. For one thing, Saudi Arabia has apparently agreed to respect the terms of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty of 1979. When that treaty was signed in 1979, the Saudis denounced it and broke relations with Egypt. Times have changed. The treaty contains this clause: The Parties consider the Strait of Tiran and the Gulf of Aqaba to be international waterways open to all nations for unimpeded and non-suspendable freedom of navigation and overflight. The parties will respect each other’s right to navigation and overflight for access to either country through the Strait of Tiran and the Gulf of Aqaba. So the Saudis are implicitly but clearly guaranteeing that they will not interfere with Israeli use of the Gulf of Aqaba, which provides access to the Israeli port city of Eilat. Moreover, there is much talk of a bridge over the Gulf of Aqaba, from Sinai to Saudi Arabia. Discussions of this potential construction have apparently taken place, and Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia seem to be acting like.....neighbors. That is, common sense is prevailing, rights are being respected, and while Israel and Saudi Arabia have no direct public contacts at all they are able to communicate and get business done. This is a huge change, and of course a welcome one-- though the background story of their common fears about American policy and the growing power of common enemies is not at all comforting.
  • Israel
    Sharansky!
    Today, February 11, marks the thirtieth anniversary of the liberation of Anatoly Shcharansky from the Soviet gulag. Shcharansky, now Natan Sharansky, was arrested in 1977 and sent to prison in 1978 for the "crimes" of teaching Hebrew and seeking an exit permit to go to Israel. These were years of incredible courage and sacrifice. Sharansky’s remarks to the court that sentenced him in Moscow will be remembered and revered for as long as men fight for freedom: "During my interrogation the chief investigators threatened me that I might be executed by a firing squad, or imprisoned for at least fifteen years. But if I agreed to cooperate with the investigation for the purpose of destroying the Jewish emigration movement, they promised me freedom and a quick reunion with my wife. "Five years ago, I submitted my application for exit to Israel. Now I am further than ever from my dream. It would seem to be cause for regret. But it is absolutely the other way around. I am happy. I am happy that I lived honorably, at peace with my conscience. I never compromised my soul, even under the threat of death. "I am happy that I helped people. I am proud that I knew and worked with such honorable, brave and courageous people as Sakharov, Orlov, Ginzburg, who are carrying on the traditions of the Russian intelligentsia [in defending human rights in the Soviet Union]. I am fortunate to have been witness to the process of the liberation of Jews of the USSR. "I hope that the absurd accusation against me and the entire Jewish emigration movement will not hinder the liberation of my people. My near ones and friends know how I wanted to exchange activity in the emigration movement for a life with my wife Avital, in Israel. "For more that two thousand years the Jewish people, my people, have been dispersed. But wherever they are, wherever Jews are found, every year they have repeated,’Next year in Jerusalem.’ Now, when I am further than ever from my people, from Avital, facing many arduous years of imprisonment, I say, turning to my people, my Avital, ’Next year in Jerusalem.’ "Now I turn to you, the court, who were required to confirm a predetermined sentence: To you I have nothing to say." When Sharansky was freed in 1986 he went immediately to Israel to meet his wife, Avital, who had moved there and campaigned ceaselessly for his release. It is reported that his first words to her were "Sorry for being late." In Israel, Sharansky has remained dedicated to the struggle for democracy worldwide, and in 2004 wrote (with Ron Dermer)  The Case for Democracy: The Power of Freedom to Overcome Tyranny and Terror. He is now chairman of the Jewish Agency. February 11 is a date worth celebrating not just for Sharansky and his family--his wife, his children, and his grandchildren--and not just for Jews and Israelis, but for everyone struggling for democracy worldwide, and all those supporting them. Sharansky’s irrepressible spirit is a reminder that freedom itself is irrepressible, and can arise again even after long decades of dictatorship.  
  • Israel
    The "Stabbing Intifada" Gets Worse (But Not on CBS)
    The stabbing attacks that have plagued Israel in the last several months have generally been "lone wolf" attacks. That is, as bad as the attacks were, they have been actions by single individuals. Yesterday that situation changed. In Jerusalem, at the Damascus Gate to the Old City, three Palestinians attacked when they were approached by border police, killing an 18 year old border policewoman and wounding another. The three terrorists were armed not only with knives, but also with automatic weapons and explosive devices. It seems obvious they were planning a larger event, with many fatalities. So this was no lone wolf attack, but a planned conspiracy to inflict mass casualties. It’s worth noting that the danger Israel faces is still being ignored or actually buried by many Western media. No--not just in Sweden or elsewhere in Europe. Here too, and in the most recent case by CBS. The three Palestinian terrorists in this Damascus Gate attack were killed by Israel police. So, what was the CBS headline? "Terrorists Killed After Attack." Nope, try again: it was “3 Palestinians killed as daily violence grinds on.” After the government of Israel protested, CBS changed the headline. But is that the end of the matter? Will CBS inquire into how a terrorist attack on Israelis is portrayed by its editorial staff as an Israeli attack on Palestinians? Will anyone be held responsible? Place your bets. Mine is that nothing changes.
  • Israel
    Cyber Week in Review: January 29, 2016
    Here is a quick round-up of this week’s technology headlines and related stories you may have missed: 1. Press speculation gives misleading account of attack on Israel Electric Authority. Israel’s Electricity Authority, and not its power grid, was the target of a cyberattack this week. Employees of the agency, Israel’s utility regulator, opened emails that infected their computers with ransomware. What consisted of no more than a phishing attack on government employees was reported by the media to be an attack against the country’s electrical grid. The misunderstanding is thought to be rooted in a statement made by Israel’s Minister of Infrastructure, Energy and Water, Yuval Steinitz, who told Cybertech conference attendees in Tel Aviv that a “severe cyberattack” was ongoing against the utility regulator. The reporting of this attack is a prime example of how, even as cyberattacks become more prevalent—including actual attacks on the power grid, such as the recent incident in Ukraine—media coverage of cyber incidents frequently continues to be confused or misleading. 2. Search engine highlights problems with Internet of things. Intimate glimpses of thousands of individuals’ private lives can now be viewed by all thanks to Shodan, which launched a tool that allows users to access any webcam that isn’t password-protected. Computer security researchers have long used Shodan to identify Internet-connected devices that perhaps shouldn’t be--like certain industrial control systems. Shodan’s ability to find unprotected webcams is probably the tip of the iceberg with the Internet of things. As more and more manufacturers build devices such as refrigerators, home alarm systems and cars that connect to the Internet, the likelier it will become for just about anyone to find them online and access them.  3. Amendments to Judicial Redress Act could complicate Safe Harbor negotiations between the United States and European Union. The U.S. Senate is considering a bill--the Judicial Redress Act-- that would grant EU citizens the same privacy protections as people in the United States. The act is the centerpiece of negotiations between the United States and European Union to replace the Safe Harbor framework invalidated last fall. The bill, headed for the Senate floor, has a provision that could prove problematic for the negotiations. Inserted by John Cornyn (R-Tx), the provision requires the U.S. attorney general to certify that participating countries do not have policies that “impede the national security interests of the United States.” Although negotiators from both sides have said they want to release Safe Harbor 2.0 by the end of the month, the amendment may make it difficult to come to an agreement that would satisfy the standard set by the Court of Justice of the European Union in its ruling last October. 4. Does the self-declared Islamic State have an encrypted messaging app? Islamic state militants have allegedly created an app called Alrawi, which purportedly encrypts communications to evade foreign intelligence services. Ghost Security Group, an organization that claims to fight the Islamic State online, first brought attention to the app earlier this month, but has been unable to provide a version of Alrawi that has any cryptographic abilities. The Daily Dot--the online news website--looked into the claim and found that the app was impossible to find online and that all supposed screenshots of Alrawi were actually images of other apps. 5. Head of the NSA’s Tailored Access Operations unit speaks publicly. Rob Joyce, the chief of the NSA’s Tailored Access Operations--the unit that develops the tools NSA uses to access foreign networks to gather intelligence-- explained his group’s methods, the steps they take to break into systems and the challenges they face. Joyce gave his remarks at the USENIX Enigma conference, which took place this week in San Francisco. You can view his full remarks here.
  • Cybersecurity
    Israel as a Cyber Super Power
    Cybertech 2016 convened this week in Tel Aviv, and I was in the audience for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plenary address, courtesy of the America-Israel Friendship League and the Israeli Foreign Ministry. Israel has an ambitious domestic and international agenda designed to make it one of the world’s super cyber powers. The prime minister has made cybersecurity one of his trademark issues and is a big promoter of the idea that better network defenses are essential for national security and that the information security industry is a driver of economic growth (Israel now has more than 300 cybersecurity companies, exports of $6 billion, and 20 percent of the world’s private investment in cyber). In his speech, Netanyahu stressed two large themes. First, there is a need for action now, and as a result some policies may be incomplete or eventually reversed, but the general direction has been decided and everyone needs to start moving.  He returned to a metaphor from the army that he has used before of forces in the field changing direction even if every detail is not yet in place. Second, Netanyahu highlighted a contradiction between the necessity of and the risks inherent in cooperation. The Israeli government is actively looking to partner with other countries and the private sector, but sharing information and capabilities will always be a calculated risk. Four specific points in the speech were of interest. First, the standing up of the National Cyber Authority and the delineation of its authorities are running into some resistance, presumably primarily from the Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security agency. The Shin Bet is responsible for defending critical infrastructure, has much of the country’s cyber capability, and does not want to give up influence. The prime minister spoke of challenging vested interests, including the intelligence agencies; the officials I spoke with took the resistance as an entirely predictable outcome of bureaucratic politics and expected the turf battles to be resolved quickly. Second, the prime minister used a medical metaphor to explain the government’s responsibilities in defending the country against cyberattacks. The government’s role is to immunize organizations and individuals by developing best practices and standards that everyone should be expected to implement. The government will treat certain types of infections, and in some instances of massive, widespread attacks that could be likened to epidemics, the government will use military force and the intelligence agencies to "both treat the attack and treat the attacker." Third, and unsurprisingly given Israel’s long-held skepticism towards the United Nations, Netanyahu disparaged the idea of a universal code of cyber norms. Instead, he advocated a meeting of like-minded countries to define norms and sanctions against those who violate those standards. The government will use the annual June meeting at Tel Aviv University to push this agenda. Fourth, the government will soon release new guidance on export control laws for cybersecurity products. The approach is going to be pro-business; anything that is not explicitly prohibited will be allowed. Government officials explained the notice was necessary to eliminate uncertainty among companies about what they could do, but an entrepreneur told me the measures would have the opposite effect. Government attention would only raise anxiety among investors and companies where there was none before. Officials were clearly trying to avoid reproducing the controversy in the United States over application of the Wassenaar export control regulations, but do not seem to be succeeding. Cyber power is built on technology, a strong relationship with the private sector, and a good story. There may be different narratives—Erel Margalit, a member of the Knesset, Israel’s legislature, contrasted his vision of Israel as a cyber hub connected to its neighbors with what he called Netanyahu’s vision of Israel as a fort—but it is clear that Israel is putting many of the fundamentals in place.
  • Turkey
    Winter Storm Reading
    Snow- and Middle East–themed reading for this weekend's winter storm.
  • Israel
    Israel’s "Partner" for Peace
    Last week a Palestinian terrorist named Mazen Aribah shot two Israelis, just north of Jerusalem. What made this incident especially noteworthy was that Aribah was also a Palestinian Authority police officer. How does the PA react to such a terrible event, where one of its own officers commits an act of terror?  By honoring him. On Saturday, Saeb Erekat visited the home of Aribah’s family to pay his respects to Aribah, who had been killed by Israeli police at the scene of his attacks. Erekat is in fact the chief Palestinian negotiator with Israel as well as a high PLO official, so one may say the path to peace is in the hands of a man who thinks it appropriate to honor terrorists. The PA and PLO do this all the time, naming parks and schools after killers, but this occasion was especially remarkable. While John Kerry, in Washington, was lecturing Israel about peace in a speech in Washington on Saturday  ("But while saying that ’I understand why Israelis feel besieged,’ Kerry directed most of his cautions toward Israel," said the Washington Post), there were three more terrorist attacks by Palestinians against Israelis on Friday. Maybe Kerry was behind in his news feed. And maybe no one told him that the Palestinians’ chief peace negotiator was busy Saturday, while Kerry was speaking, paying honor to terror. Kerry’s main message in his speech to the Brookings Institution’s Saban Forum, was that Israel needs to make peace. But where is the partner for peace that Israel needs?
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Abbas Admits He Said No to Israel’s Peace Offer
    The question of what happened in the late 2008 Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations between Prime Minister Olmert and President Abbas has been controversial since those talks took place. But now we have the admission from Abbas that the Israeli version of events is correct: he said no. In a lengthy interview with Israeli TV, the admission takes place: At 24:05 of the video, Channel 10 reporter Raviv Drucker asked Abbas: “In the map that Olmert presented you, Israel would annex 6.3 percent [of the West Bank] and compensate the Palestinians with 5.8 percent [taken from pre-1967 Israel]. What did you propose in return?” “I did not agree,” Abbas replied. “I rejected it out of hand.” The interviews (including with Olmert) contain detail that will be of great interest to many people, but that’s the bottom line. Abbas walked away, just as Yasser Arafat had walked away at Camp David in 2000. There are arguments, and I analyze them in my book Tested By Zion, about why Abbas said no: he was waiting to see the policies of a new U.S. president about to take office, or did not wish to sign with the lame duck Olmert, for example. Others argue that Abbas lacked the legitimacy, or the guts, to sign a deal that Hamas would immediately have attacked, and that like Arafat he had never prepared Palestinians for the compromises peace would require. That is speculation. What is not speculation is that Israel’s prime minister made a peace offer, and the Palestinian leader--head of the Fatah Party, the PLO, and the Palestinian Authority--rejected it. Those who wish to blame Israel for the continuing lack of progress in achieving a comprehensive peace agreement will presumably pay no attention to this interview, but the facts are in.
  • Terrorism and Counterterrorism
    Weekend Reading: Ramlat Bulaq, Bedouin Poetry, and the Islamic State vs. Israel
    Omnia Khalil reviews the struggles of everyday life in the Cairene neighborhood of Ramlat Bulaq. William Tamplin takes a look at Jordan’s most popular Bedouin poet and his use of verse to express Arab political arguments. Dana Hadra argues that the self-proclaimed Islamic State’s threats against Israel are empty.
  • Israel
    Israel, "Racism," and "Apartheid"
    One of the most common Palestinian attacks on Israel is that it is building a racist and "apartheid" society. Here is a minor but standard example from Saeb Erekat, the Palestinian official who is actually chief negotiator with Israel and a reliable voice of PA propaganda: In March of this year he said Netanyahu’s election victory was based on "a campaign platform based on settlements, racism, apartheid and the denial of the fundamental human rights of the Palestinian people." I was thinking of Erekat and of the constant Palestinian accusations of "racism" and "apartheid" when reading the following headline in today’s Israeli press: "Government set to approve final wave of Ethiopian aliyah." This would be the last group of Jews coming from Ethiopia to Israel, under proposals being debated now. Israel has brought more than 85,000 Ethiopian Jews out to live in Israel, and there are about 50,000 Israeli-born descendants of Ethiopian Jewish immigrants. Unsurprisingly, the transition from small villages in  Ethiopia to 20th and 21st century Israel has been difficult, and there are plenty of tensions. Unemployment is higher and average income is lower than for the rest of the Israeli population. The Jewish population of Israel is now 3 percent Ethiopian, and anyone who travels there can see groups of schoolchildren or groups of soldiers that include Israelis of Middle Eastern, European, and African origin. Some racism. Some apartheid.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Accuracy, Settlements, and The New York Times
    In an editorial on November 6th about Israeli-US. relations, The New York Times states as fact something that is simply false: "new settlements have been pursued so aggressively by Mr. Netanyahu that the land available for a Palestinian state may already be foreclosed." Secretary of State Kerry has made similar statements recently, and it is quite remarkable that such a fact question can be gotten so wrong. First, the term "new settlements" has a meaning: it does not mean expansion of existing settlements, nor the creation of a hilltop outpost of a couple of trailers. There has simply not been an aggressive creation of new settlements under Mr. Netanyahu, and in fact there have been close to zero new settlements. Second, there has not even been an aggressive expansion of "old" or existing settlements. Settler populations have grown steadily, on both sides of the security fence, but the Netanyahu government has very clearly restrained that growth. Settler protests, and the fact that many settlers vote for parties other than Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud, attest to this, but more significantly so do the statistics released annually by the government of Israel. Consulting those statistical reports is apparently beyond the capacity of the Times. Those who wish to oppose or criticize any growth in population in the settlements have reason to complain, but the claim that new settlements are quickly gobbling up all the land in the West Bank is a fantasy. It is false. The "peace map" or "Google Earth map" of the West Bank shows very little change during the Netanyahu years. It should not be too much to ask for accuracy on such points when The New York Times writes yet another of its endless and dreary attacks on the government of Israel.    
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Kerry, Rabin, the PLO, and the "Peace Process"
    Marking the anniversary of the death of Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin this week, Secretary of State Kerry said this: Former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin devoted his life to defending Israel. Today, on this solemn anniversary, we express our profound appreciation for his contribution to the cause of peace. And we honor his vision that would create a better future for both Israelis and the Palestinians: two states living side-by-side in peace and security....Rabin is gone, but his legacy endures as a challenge and an inspiration to us all. Recent events and violence in the region underscore the urgency of advancing Rabin’s vision: a two-state solution that provides the security for Israelis and Palestinians to live their lives in peace, dignity and prosperity. Actually, it is quite uncertain whether Rabin would have pushed forward to the two-state solution under the conditions that existed when he was assassinated, or would today. Consider these words several years ago from the Jerusalem Post and from his own daughter Dalia: In fact, Rabin may have been close to calling-off the Oslo process, according his daughter Dalia. Three years ago, she told Yediot Aharonot (October 1, 2010) that “many people who were close to father told me that on the eve of the murder he considered stopping the Oslo process because of the terror that was running rampant in the streets, and because he felt that Yasser Arafat was not delivering on his promises.” “Father after all wasn’t a blind man running forward without thought. I don’t rule out the possibility that he was considering a U-turn, doing a reverse on our side. After all he was someone for whom the national security of the state was sacrosanct and above all,” former deputy defense minister Dalia Rabin said. Why might Rabin have made such a decision were he prime minister now? First, because terror is once again "running rampant" in Israel’s streets. And then there is the question of PLO conduct.  Consider the most recent move by the PLO ambassador to the United Nations: In a letter to British Ambassador Matthew Rycroft, president of the U.N. Security Council this month, the chief Palestinian delegate at the United Nations, Riyad Mansour, described what he said was the alleged harvesting of body parts of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces. "After returning the seized bodies of Palestinians killed by the occupying forces through October, and following medical examinations, it has been reported that the bodies were returned with missing corneas and other organs," Mansour wrote Rycroft on Tuesday. He added that this was confirmation of "past reports about organ harvesting." This is a 2015 version of the medieval "blood libel," a central feature of anti-Semitism for centuries. So this is what the PLO is making of its observer status in the UN: instead of working for peace, it works to spread hatred of Jews. I spent a few minutes on-line today looking for the repercussions of these despicable claims, and sure enough you can easily find them being repeated all around the globe. Legally the United States is required to permit a PLO mission to the UN, I believe, but there is no reason to have a PLO mission in Washington. It does nothing to advance peace--not when the ambassador of the PLO to the UN is spreading anti-Semitic hate and the head of the PLO, Mahmoud Abbas, is saying things like this: “Al-Aksa is ours and so is the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. They have no right to desecrate them with their filthy feet." And this: “Each drop of blood that was spilled in Jerusalem is pure blood as long as it’s for the sake of Allah. Every shahid (martyr) will be in heaven and every wounded person will be rewarded, by Allah’s will.” Rabin would have been completely familiar with the lies, the incitement, and the terrorism we now see, having experienced all of them. His own daughter said years ago that he wasn’t a "blind man" and would have reacted to it all. We honor Rabin by honoring his dedication to Israel’s security, not by appropriating his name for administration policy at a moment when Israel is once again facing exactly the conduct from which he spent his life defending his country.  
  • Palestinian Territories
    Words Have Consequences
    Before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies Elliott Abrams argued that incitement by Palestinian leaders and media—not poverty and hopelessness—has been the motivating forces behind recent violence against Israel. His recommendations: First, the United States should close the Palestine Liberation Organization office in Washington and not permit the opening of a Palestinian Authority (PA) office until the incitement stops. Second, if all funding for the PA cannot be stopped, the United States should try to stem the corruption that is rife in the PA. The United States can demand investigations, or make investigations a condition of spending appropriated funds. Third, the United States should keep track of who is doing the incitement, by name, and be sure they are barred from getting visas at least for a period of time.
  • Israel
    Abbas, Hamas, and NIMBY
    Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas was quick to denounce the violence and arson at Joseph’s Tomb in Nablus. Moreover, he has instructed Palestinian Authority police to prevent a new intifada. But this is the same Abbas who has encouraged violence. He continues to spread the lie that Israel is undermining the Haram al-Sharif or Temple Mount, and said “Al-Aqsa is ours and so is the Church of the Holy Sepulchre. They have no right to desecrate them with their filthy feet.” He has verbally supported violence, reacting to the series of stabbings this way: “Each drop of blood that was spilled in Jerusalem is pure blood as long as it’s for the sake of Allah. Every shahid (martyr) will be in heaven and every wounded person will be rewarded, by Allah’s will.” In Gaza, Hamas tries to prevent Islamic Jihad and other groups from launching attacks into Israel, and restrains its own cadres. But Hamas has glorified the stabbings and killings of recent days and urged its followers to go out and kill Jews. Why the apparent contradictions? Simple: both the Palestinian Authority and Hamas are saying "NIMBY", or  "not in my backyard." The PA wants calm where it rules, in the West Bank, and fears that a new intifada could help Hamas. But it sees violence in Israel, and especially in Jerusalem, as potentially helpful politically--and is certainly not going to condemn it. Similarly, Hamas wants more violence everywhere but Gaza, including in the West Bank and Israel, especially Jerusalem. Restraining its young terrorists from action is always a problem for Hamas, as is assigning them to stop Islamic Jihad. These young thugs did not sign up to police the borders of Gaza on behalf of Israel. So Hamas reminds them of its true terrorist vocation by inspiring and assisting violence elsewhere. The Israelis have a particularly difficult task in east Jerusalem. They do not permit the PA police into that area, but Israeli police and other public services are sparse there. It is reported that Hamas is stronger there than in the West Bank. Once this crisis is over, Israel should give careful thought to how it governs east Jerusalem and size of the "normal" police presence there (and from the Israeli press, it’s clear that this debate has already begun). Meanwhile, Hamas and Abbas seek to maintain order where they rule, but promote violence where they do not. NIMBY works in the Middle East, too.
  • Israel
    Israelis and Palestinians: And Then What?
    In December 1987 the first intifada began after a traffic accident involving an Israeli truck and a Palestinian pedestrian outside the Jabaliya refugee camp set off a wave of demonstrations against Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The sudden volleys of rocks pelting Israeli soldiers and the tear gas and rubber bullets in response changed the complexion of the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians almost overnight, likely forever. The mighty Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) were not traversing the Sinai Peninsula in three days, rescuing hostages in Entebbe, or spending two daring minutes over Baghdad, but breaking teenagers’ bones on the streets of Nablus, Hebron, Ramallah, and Gaza City. David had become Goliath and had no answer for Daoud’s slingshot. The Israelis must have been rattled by the images on television and pictures published in the press because, a few months after it all began, the Israeli consul general started doing the rounds of universities and colleges in the New York area to provide Jerusalem’s perspective on the unrest. I remember attending one such event on a chilly evening in a half-empty room at Vassar’s College Center. During the Q&A a member of the audience recalled an encounter with someone he identified as an “Arab friend in Israel.” He alleged that during a debate over politics his friend relayed that, despite their relationship, he would kill him if and when communal violence erupted. It was an odd non sequitur to what had, until that moment, been an interesting discussion thankfully lacking the overwrought theatrics of more recent conversations about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on America’s campuses. I bring all this up because the memory came rushing back to me last week when I watched the surveillance footage of a knife-wielding employee of the Israeli phone company, Bezeq, hack a rabbi to death at a bus stop in Jerusalem. It was simply gruesome. There have been all kinds of arguments advanced for this sudden spate of violence, but it actually does not require any kind of deep explanation when the cause is so clear—Palestinian political and religious figures have directly and indirectly exhorted their people to kill Jews and a small number have obliged. By all accounts daily life has become extraordinarily frightening for Israelis, especially since there does not seem to be an effective answer to random knife-wielding people bent on death. Can the Israelis cordon off East Jerusalem forever? What about Tel Aviv? The bus station in Afula? Do you surround Umm al-Fahm and not let people leave? What about Haifa with its large Palestinian population? It is a mind-boggling problem. The violence has, it seems, ushered a new “psychotic”—to use Bret Stephens’s description—phase in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Stephens reserved “psychotic” for Palestinians, but they have not cornered the market on blind hatred, dark interpretations of religion, and uncompromising ideologies. Israelis too have proven themselves capable of horrific, senseless violence lest anyone forget the names Ali Dawabsheh, Shira Banki, or Yitzhak Rabin for that matter. I can already picture my Twitter feed and email inbox filling up with accusations of “moral equivalence.” By this, critics no doubt mean that I am willfully overlooking the fact that Palestinians leaders abet violence and Israeli officials do not or that I fail to recognize that Israeli violence is justified, but Palestinian bloodshed is not. My only answer is this: The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is always much more complicated than partisans on both sides would desperately like everyone to believe. It is true that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has never implored Israelis to kill Palestinians and that he and members of his government denounced the murder of Dawabsheh. Of course, this comes after years of generalized passivity and tolerance—for political reasons—of the settlers and the extremists among them who have desecrated mosques, burned olive groves, and staged armed attacks on Palestinians. I should add that the perpetrators of these acts, like Rabin’s assassin, have often received halachic justification from settler rabbis. It is also true that the current round of Palestinian violence is based on a falsehood. Israel is not trying to alter the status quo on the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif. Yet there are apparently a growing number of Israelis who believe that a change in the delicate Israeli-Jordanian-Palestinian arrangements that govern Jerusalem’s holiest site is necessary to accommodate an increased Jewish presence there. And then there are those who want to “liberate the Temple Mount from Arab (Islamic) occupation.” The Israeli authorities recognize the danger, but politics often has a way of producing outcomes that end up rewarding those who have little interest in peace. The settlers have won the internal Israeli debate over the status of the West Bank. They are never leaving. If I remember correctly, the last time there was an election in Palestine, Hamas won. No one would fairly describe either group as being in the peace camp. What we are seeing now in Israeli streets are the bloody results of a stalemate that empowers extremes. But here is the most depressing aspect of this current episode: All the incentives exist for a flagging Palestinian leadership to hitch their political fortunes to this violence, and on Israel cracking down, as the stabbing victims multiply, providing a pretext for Palestinians to escalate, leaving the Israelis no choice but to respond in kind. Maybe it will not happen in precisely this fashion, but it seems likely that Israelis and Palestinians are in for a prolonged period of violence. This should finally bury the fantasy of the two-state solution, but as Ari Shavit recently noted, it also shatters the equally unreal one-state solution of both the BDSers and Israel’s right, leaving everyone asking: And then what?