• Egypt
    Democracy Is Not the Cure for Terrorism
    Analysts have blamed Egypt’s autocracy for a recent attack that killed hundreds. But that’s not what’s motivating the violence.
  • Women and Women's Rights
    Women Around the World: This Week
    Welcome to "Women Around the World: This Week," a series that highlights noteworthy news related to women and U.S. foreign policy. This week's post, covering December 11 to December 16, was compiled with support from Becky Allen and Anne Connell.
  • U.S. Foreign Policy
    Mr. Kerry Should Apologize
    It seems that John Kerry is a problem even out of office. Whether his record as secretary of state was one of glorious achievement or abject failure is of course a matter of debate; I lean to the latter view. But what he has done this week is less debatable: he has leaked other countries' secrets, for no reason other than self-aggrandizement. Here is a part of the Washington Post story: Former Secretary of State John Kerry says both Israel and Egypt pushed the United States to “bomb Iran” before the 2015 nuclear deal was struck. Kerry is defending the deal during a forum in Washington. He says kings and foreign presidents told the U.S. that bombing was the only language Iran would understand. But Kerry says that was “a trap” in many ways because the same countries would have publicly criticized the U.S. if it bombed. Kerry says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was “genuinely agitating toward action.” He could have said "some countries" or "some leaders" but chose to state what was said to him in secret, privileged, private diplomatic conversations by named governments. And to do so about leaders who are still in office, such as Prime Minister Netanyahu. And he chose to do so in an offhand manner at a conference where his goal was merely to defend his own record in negotiating the JCPOA.  This is irresponsible behavior. It is the kind of conduct that tells foreign leaders they cannot trust our own leaders to protect private conversations, and suggests to them that candor is dangerous. When a secretary of state, who often boasted of his years as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, behaves this way he deserves the kind of criticism that...Kerry is very unlikely to get.  Why not? Because people expect this kind of misconduct from him? Because he is out of office so he is free to spill secrets? Because "everyone knows" what Israel and Egypt were urging? These are all poor arguments. Kerry should acknowledge that he spoke too freely and state that he regrets his action. He owes both those governments an apology. And he should pledge to be far more careful in the future about revealing the content of conversations that should not be disclosed for decades--including, that is, not in Mr. Kerry's memoirs.   
  • Zimbabwe
    Mugabe and Mubarak
    Robert Mugabe is finally falling from power, after 37 years of vicious dictatorship that ruined his country. Why now? Was it the destruction of the economy? Jailing too many opponents? Too much international isolation or criticism? No, none of those. It was instead trying to make his wife his successor, a move the army would not in the end tolerate. This inglorious end for the old dictator put me in mind of Hosni Mubarak, who after 30 years in power was felled in no small part for a similar reason: in his case, trying to make his son his successor. Steven Kinzer explained the story back when it was happening, in 2011: Hosni Mubarak is falling from power in Egypt partly because he refused to heed one of history’s hidden lessons: Dictators shouldn’t have sons. Most do. That often hastens their downfall or that of their nations. Egyptians might have been willing to accept their lot for a while longer if the ailing Mubarak had not made it clear he intended his son, Gamal, to succeed him in power. Of all his arrogant acts, none insulted his people more than his insistence that of the 80 million Egyptians, Gamal Mubarak was best qualified to lead the country. The plan was for him to rise to power not by popular vote, but only because his father wished it that way. Zimbabwe is a similar story. Consider this paragraph from the November 15 Washington Post story on events there: Mugabe recently purged some key officials from the ruling party, ZANU-PF, paving the way for his 52-year old spouse, Grace, to succeed him. Many see that move as a major miscalculation, alienating Mugabe from the civilians and military leaders on whom he had long depended. In fact, the two stories are even more similar than they may appear because it was apparently Mubarak’s wife, Suzanne, who constantly pushed Gamal’s candidacy forward. Mugabe’s wife is 41 years his junior; Suzanne Mubarak is only 13 years younger than her husband. But in both cases, they may have feared what would happen to them after their husbands left power or died. Grace Mugabe’s solution was to succeed her husband; Suzanne Mubarak’s was to have her son do that. Succession in dictatorships is always a moment of danger, especially for the family the dictator will leave behind. That’s precisely why so many families try to stay in power, which may seem like a smart move when they have committed crimes and stolen money. I am reminded of the comment made to me by the Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky about Gorbachev. Do you know what Gorbachev did when he lost power? Khodorkovsky asked me. He answered his own question: Gorbachev simply went home. He was able to do that because, said Khodorkovsky, he was not a thief. That alternative was not available to the families of Mubarak or Mugabe. Steven Kinzer’s proposal that dictators not have sons is unrealistic, as is its translation to the Zimbabwean case—not having a wife. Perhaps more practical advice is, send them off to live in London or Paris or someplace else, out of the country, out of politics, and perhaps (if you can find one) a place without an extradition treaty. But the other extreme, of lining them up to take power when you’re gone, may not only ruin them but ruin you too. That’s what Mubarak and Mugabe learned the hard way.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Weekend Reading: The Yom Kippur War
    Who knew that Leonard Cohen flew to Israel during the conflict to sing to Israeli troops?   From Disaster to (Limited) Victory. An Egyptian officer’s view of the Ramadan War.
  • Egypt
    The Tragic Tale of Egypt’s Decline: Is It Also the Story of America’s Future?
    Once a diverse, cosmopolitan society, Egypt has descended into corruption, inequality, and bigotry. Sound familiar?
  • Egypt
    Financing Egypt’s "Missing Middle"
    This post is co-authored by Becky Allen, a research associate in the Women and Foreign Policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) recently launched an initiative that will dedicate approximately $1.6 billion to fund the country's microfinance industry. The new program is part of CBE's broader financial inclusion strategy, which seeks to put new financial tools in the hands of those who are unbanked or underserved – especially women and young people. In Egypt, 52 percent of the population is under age twenty-five and 86 percent of people live without access to quality financial services, including savings accounts, insurance, and credit. But micro-finance — proven to be an effective tool in reaching some of the world's poorest — is just the start. And focusing exclusively on the microfinance sector leaves out a critical segment of the global population: the "missing middle." The "missing middle" is made up of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in developing nations. Despite serving as the primary drivers of job creation and economic growth in emerging markets and developed economies alike, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) estimates that 55 to 68 percent of formal SMEs in developing markets lack adequate financing, amounting to a combined credit gap of approximately $1 trillion. Women business-owners, in particular, face challenges in accessing capital. Constrained by legal and cultural barriers, as many as 70 percent of women-owned SMEs in developing countries report having to go without the financial tools they need to grow their businesses. In Egypt, where women own 30 percent of businesses, the credit gap among women-owned SMEs stands at $283 million. Not only does filling this gap represent a substantial market opportunity for banks, it also holds the potential for significant job creation in a country where the official unemployment rate is 12 percent – roughly double the global average. Among young people ages fifteen to twenty-nine, the unemployment rate is estimated to climb even higher at 33 percent, or 79 percent of the total unemployed.  While microfinance programs have proven a boon to women – benefitting millions of women around the world through small-dollar loans used to cover household expenses and to create businesses – many microenterprises fail to become formal, employment-generating SMEs due to lack of larger, sustained credit options, a shortage of skills, and insufficient networks. Meanwhile, larger-sized financing mechanisms – particularly bank-funded small business loans, but also venture capital and private equity – target larger firms with promises of higher returns than the average SME can generate. In effect, this creates a "missing middle" and leaves both jobs and dollars on the table. Egypt's banking sector clearly recognizes the importance of financial inclusion to the nation's economic future. Indeed, the theme of the Egyptian Banking Institute’s (EBI) ninth annual conference, hosted in early May, was Promoting Financial Inclusion in the Banking Sector. The program featured discussions on the importance of bringing more people into the banking system to boost GDP growth and poverty reduction, as well as the best paths and practices to advance financial inclusion, particularly for youth, women, and micro-, small-, and medium enterprises.  As Egypt continues to flesh out its strategy for bringing all its citizens into the banking system, its economy could benefit from paying particular attention to that last group – small- and medium-sized businesses — the "missing middle."    One idea is for the CBE to consider a parallel program to its newly launched microfinance initiative – this one focused on SMEs, especially those run by women. Such a program could be accompanied by training for women on business skills and how to best utilize financial services to grow their businesses. Sex-disaggregated data collection also could help to determine the financial products that would be most beneficial to female SME owners. Banks in Egypt could also partner with multilateral organizations such as the International Finance Corporation (ICF), which is already active in SME financing. For example, mirroring the work of the IFC in neighboring Jordan, Egyptian banks could work with the IFC to establish distinct financial products and branding for the women’s SME market. One example of this in Jordan is the Shorouq brand of financial services for women at the Bank al Etihad, which targets women by providing collateral-free loans and special savings programs. Likewise, it could look to the work of the IFC in Pakistan, where bank staff are now offered incentives for opening accounts for women. Egypt could take this initiative one step further and offer incentives to staff that work with women-owned SMEs on credit and other financing options.  Currently, Egypt has one of the lowest levels of financial inclusion, not only in its region, but across the globe. While the country has taken steps toward arming more and more people with bank accounts and other financial services – strengthening the regulatory environment and placing a greater focus on mobile banking – significant portions of the population will remain unbanked if the "missing middle" continues to be an overlooked part of creating value and generating prosperity for the nation's economy.
  • Egypt
    Egypt’s Leader Faces a Crisis of His Own Making—One That Reveals His Nation’s Dangerous Weakness
    Two obscure islands that many Egyptians didn't even know about suddenly threaten President Sisi's regime.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Tahrir Square, Six Years Later: A Conversation with Steven A. Cook
    Podcast
    Zenko is joined by Steven A. Cook, CFR's Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies. They discuss Cook's latest book, False Dawn: Protest, Democracy, and Violence in the New Middle East, and U.S. policy in the Middle East and North Africa.