Egypt

Naseem Tarawnah raises the question, why have Arab states not intervened in Syria? Robert Olson reminds the world of “the other war” in Syria. Sara Salem examines the role of the Egyptian military in Egypt’s post-2011 Revolution reality.  

LONDON – In 2011, shortly after Hosni Mubarak was forced to step down as Egypt’s president, protests erupted in eastern Libya. A few months later Muammar al-Qaddafi’s own decades-long rule came to an end. Although each country took a different path toward revolution, developments in Cairo influenced events in Tripoli. Similarly, the ripple effects from Egypt’s summer of upheaval are already rumbling through Libya, with secularists feeling their oats and Islamists feeling pinched. At the very least, the diverse and fractious armed groups that operate throughout Libya are gripping their guns a bit more tightly. The July 3 ouster of Mohammed Morsi and subsequent crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood by Egyptian security forces was cheered by anti-Brotherhood protesters in a handful of Libyan cities. Although Libya has its own chapter of the Muslim Brotherhood—as well as an ideologically aligned political organization, the Justice and Construction Party—the country is also home to a number of anti-Islamist and anti-Brotherhood groups. The Egyptian coup has emboldened these groups, who see the Brotherhood as a foreign entity whose priority is regional dominance rather than the national interest. Of course, this condition is not unique to the Brotherhood; many of Libya’s factions put their own interests ahead of the state. Yet the common critique of the Brotherhood is more pointed, it contends that the group clandestinely aspires to Islamize society and that it threatens to sully Islam by dragging it into the messiness of day-to-day politics. Yet the Muslim Brotherhood is not the only Islamist group with influence in Libya. Others include ultraconservative Salafists, former domestic and transnational jihadists, and extremists who continue to use violence against their political opponents. Many of these groups have always harbored skepticism of democratic rule, viewing it as a Western import. Following Qaddafi’s death in 2011, civil society groups and religious leaders in Libya put significant effort into promoting the virtues of democracy to hardline Islamist groups. They argued that democracy could bring about political systems inspired by Islamic principles – such as those enshrined in Sharia, the system that hardline Islamists would like to see implemented in full. They also argued that democracy would enable Islamists to achieve justice against those individuals and networks that had been complicit in the violent repression of Islamism under Gaddafi. The electoral success of Brotherhood-affiliated parties and ultraconservative Salafist groups in Tunisia and Egypt lent credence to these claims. Libya’s Salafists sought advice from their Egyptian counterparts about their own experiences of democracy. Morsi’s removal has dealt a blow to such arguments, and may have spoiled Islamist groups’ already limited appetite for democracy in Libya. Salafist sheikhs and leading members of the Brotherhood-linked Justice and Construction Party have publicly acknowledged that recent events in Egypt have damaged the credibility of democracy in Libya. Libya’s influential but divisive Grand Mufti, Sadek al-Gharyani, who is associated with the Salafist al-Asala party, compared Morsi’s removal by the military to Qaddafi’s 1969 coup against King Idriss. How Libya’s Islamist groups react remains to be seen, but the responses could be as varied as the groups themselves. Some are likely to boycott future elections – in the way that some threatened to boycott national elections in July 2012 – and act to undermine elected institutions. However, the impact of these actions on Libya’s transition is likely to remain limited. Transparent political processes and continued engagement by civil society groups may encourage Islamists to embrace Libya’s nascent democracy; the reintegration of Egypt’s Brotherhood and the continued involvement of Salafist parties in Egyptian politics would also be positive indicators in this regard. Nevertheless, there is probably a radical fringe that will refuse to engage in Libya’s democratic process and that will use violence to undermine it. Indeed, the implications of the Egyptian coup for Libya’s security environment are potentially profound. Libya remains home to a broad array of armed groups with varying degrees of involvement with the state, and a broad range of political, religious, tribal and ethnic affiliations. Although none of these groups should be regarded as the military wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, many have Islamist beliefs and some see their weapons as a means of ensuring the creation of an Islamist political system. Armed groups – Islamist and otherwise – have refused to give up their weapons and resisted integration with the state security institutions that existed under Qaddafi. The militias that were formed in opposition to the former regime regard Qaddafi-era security institutions as corrupt, associated with violent persecution and – in the case of armed Islamist groups – antithetical to their beliefs. The assassinations of Qaddafi-era security officials over the past year in the northeastern city of Benghazi are probably a byproduct of this. Morsi’s removal by the Egyptian military – an institution that many Libyans view as a remnant of the regime of another ousted Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak – has compounded these perceptions. Some Islamist groups will see the retention of arms and the potential use of violence as the only viable means of achieving their political goals. This in turn will delay the reconstitution of Libya’s state security forces and could well lead to further violence between the country’s armed groups. Henry Smith is a senior analyst for the Middle East and North Africa with Control Risks, a global risk consultancy. He is also a contributing author of a new book, The 2011 Libyan Uprisings and the Struggle for the Post-Qadhafi Future.

Syria. Diplomats in New York appeared stymied in their efforts to craft a new United Nations Security resolution calling for the removal of Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal. The Security Council began discussing a resolution on Tuesday to support last weekend’s U.S.-Russia deal that called for Syria to account for its chemical weapons within one week and for the destruction of its entire arsenal by mid-2014; members are divided over whether or not to include the threat of sanctions or force. Last Saturday, Secretary of State Kerry said, “We agreed that Syria must submit within a week – not in 30 days, but in one week -- a comprehensive listing.” Yesterday, however, State Department spokeswoman Marie Hard said that, “We’ve never said it was a hard and fast deadline.” Russian president Vladimir Putin reiterated his suggestion today that the chemical weapons use in Syria had been carried out by the opposition, saying, “We have every reason to believe it was a cunning provocation.” Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday that Russia will present evidence to the UN Security Council of chemical weapons use by the Syrian opposition, while one of his deputies called the recently released report from the UN chemical weapons experts “distorted.” Syrian president Bashar al-Assad appeared today in an interview with Fox News and said that Syria could make the chemical weapons sites accessible to international experts “tomorrow,” but that he has heard the process of destroying the weapons will take approximately one year. Egypt. Egyptian security forces engaged in a deadly firefight today with armed supporters of deposed president Mohamed Morsi in Kerdasa, just outside Cairo. Police general Nabil Farrag was shot to death, with his forces arresting at least fifty suspected militants. Egyptian state television announced today that the curfew imposed on August 14 will begin an hour later (midnight) and be lifted and hour earlier (5 am) starting on Saturday. Meanwhile, one of Morsi’s lawyers said yesterday that the ousted president spoke with his family by telephone last week for the first time since he was detained by the Egyptian military in July. U.S. Foreign Policy Iran. White House spokesman Jay Carney said yesterday that President Barack Obama’s confidential letter to Iranian president Hassan Rouhani declared the United States’ readiness to resolve the nuclear dispute with Iran in a way “allows Iran to demonstrate that its nuclear program is for exclusively peaceful purpose.” Obama confirmed the exchange of letters with Iran’s new president, Hassan Rouhani, in an interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s This Week on Sunday. In the same interview, Obama said that Iran should not think that the United States will not strike because it has not struck in Syria, and that the nuclear issue is more significant to the United States than the chemical weapons issue. Both Obama and Rouhani are set to address the UN General Assembly next week in New York, but are not scheduled to meet. Israel. U.S. officials confirmed that President Obama is slated to host Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House on September 30. The story was first released by Israeli officials. Netanyahu will meet the president before the Israeli leader addresses the United Nations General Assembly. It will be the first meeting between the two leaders since President Obama visited Israel in March. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Yemen’s National Dialogue conference, a six-month reconciliation process that was due to give recommendations on a new constitution and voting system today, was instead extended for another two weeks. The delay occurred when two representatives from former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s party walked out of a meeting, objecting to a proposal to divide the country into a northern and southern province as an attempt to “harm the unity of the homeland.” While delegates have agreed in principle to a federal state, the number of provinces has become a divisive issue; northerners are pushing for several provinces, but southerners only want two provinces. Palestine. A mew Palestinian Authority government headed by Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah was sworn in today in Ramallah by President Abbas. Hamdallah led a caretaker government after he had submitted his own resignation just two weeks into the job last June. Abbas tapped him to head a new government in August, and Hamdallah managed to form a government after five weeks of struggling to do so. After much jockeying over possible appointments, the new government appointed is an exact replica of the previous one. Palestine-Israel. Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat alleged today before a group of diplomats and journalists that Israel seeks to control the Jordan Valley out of economic greed. Erekat dismissed previous statements by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel should have at least a forty-year presence in the Jordan Valley to ensure Israel’s security after a peace agreement is signed. Meanwhile, Yasser Abed Rabbo, a senior aide to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, told Voice of Palestine radio that the peace talks with Israel “are futile and won’t lead to any results.” Bahrain. Sheik Ali Salman, secretary general of main opposition group Al Wefaq, met today with Hakon Smedsvig, the first secretary for political affairs at the Norwegian embassy in Manama. The meeting was in contravention of a recent ban on all contact with foreign diplomats. Five opposition groups, including Al Wefaq, announced the suspension of their participation in reconciliation talks on Wednesday. The announcement came a day after the arrest of Khalil Marzooq, a member of Al Wefaq and a former member of parliament. Marzooq faces charges of “inciting acts of terror.” Tunisia. UGTT, Tunisia’s largest labor union, proposed a roadmap for ending the country’s political deadlock on Tuesday. The proposal, published on the union’s website, calls for a national dialogue, the current government to step-down in one month, and a caretaker government to steer the country towards new elections. The National Assembly held its first complete session on Tuesday after a month-long suspension, but fifty-nine opposition members refused to return.  

Egypt. Interim president Adly Mansour extended the month-long state of emergency for two more months yesterday. A presidential spokesman explained the extension was due to recent “terrorist activities.” Two car bombs hit an Egyptian military intelligence building in Rafah, Sinai on Wednesday, killing at least eleven people, including six soldiers. The attack came four days after the Egyptian military launched a major offensive against Islamist militants in the Sinai Peninsula. Officials describe the operation as the largest sweep of the region in years and report that at least twenty-seven militants have been killed in past six days. Meanwhile, the Egyptian government banned over fifty thousand imams from giving Friday sermons on Monday because they do not have possess the properly accredited preaching licenses. The new restrictions require imams to have licenses from Al Azhar University and are viewed by many as the government’s attempt to rein in imams who support deposed president Mohamed Morsi. A public relations manager for Al Azhar University said that, “If all preachers are Azharis then any radicalism or extremism will be eliminated from mosques and Islamic thought in Egypt will be unified.” Israel-Palestine. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry is set to travel to Jerusalem on Sunday to meet with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Earlier this week, U.S. officials denied the existence of a signed paper guaranteeing peace talks with Israel would start from the 1967 borders; Palestinian official Nabil Shaath told reporters on Monday that Kerry had given such a document to the Palestinian leadership. Kerry met with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas on Sunday to discuss the talks. Over the weekend, Israeli negotiator Yitzhak Molcho reportedly complained to U.S. envoy Martin Indyk accusing the Palestinians of breaching an agreement not to discuss the content or dates of meetings with the media. Tunisia. Tunisia’s transitional parliament partially resumed activities on Wednesday after a month-long suspension. Mustafa Ben Jafar, president of the parliament, said that full meetings to finish drafting the new constitution will be held next week. The suspension of parliament followed the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi, an opposition member of parliament, in August. Libya. A car bomb exploded outside of a Libyan foreign ministry building in Benghazi Wednesday morning—the one-year anniversary of a deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in the city. No deaths or serious injuries were reported. Referring to the anniversary of the attack that killed four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens, Libyan prime minister Ali Zidan said, “We can’t ignore the date and timing. We can’t forget.” No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Turkey. Protestors clashed with Turkish security forces in several cities, including Ankara and Istanbul, for the fourth straight day today over the death of twenty-two year-old demonstrator Ahmet Atakan. Atakan died on Monday after he was allegedly hit on the head by a tear gas canister; the Turkish government has denied responsibility and claimed that he fell off a roof. Bahrain. Justice Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ali Al Khalifa announced on Wednesday the full details of a new law requiring political groups to receive official approval before meeting with foreign governments, diplomats, and international organizations. The law requires groups to contact the Bahraini foreign ministry three days in advance of any such meeting.  

This article was originally published here on ForeignPolicy.com on Thursday, September 12, 2013.  In October 1990, extremists affiliated with the terrorist organization Egyptian Islamic Jihad raked Abdel Halim Moussa’s motorcade with gunfire. Moussa, the newly-appointed interior minister, survived, but the speaker of Egypt’s lower house of parliament, Rifaat el Mahgoub, was not as lucky. Islamic Jihad, the group responsible for President Anwar Sadat’s assassination in 1981, would try to kill Moussa three more times in as many years. Had it not been for the Algerian Civil War, which claimed approximately 100,000 lives between 1992 and 1998, more attention would likely have been paid to the insurrection that raged in Egypt during the same period. Between the first attempt on Moussa’s life and the infamous Luxor massacre seven years later, roughly 1,600 people were killed in a conflict between the Egyptian state and Islamist extremists -- 1,100 in 1993 alone. So when Egypt’s current interior minister, Mohammed Ibrahim, survived a car bombing in the Nasr City area of Greater Cairo last week, there was a palpable sense of dread among those with even a passing familiarity with recent Egyptian history. Are the 1990s back in Egypt? It is a distinct possibility. The irony of the multiple attempts on Moussa’s life lay in the fact that he was a relative moderate -- at least by the standards of the police generals who have led Egypt’s notorious Interior Ministry over the years. After a period of stepped up repression in the late 1980s, Moussa adopted a more nuanced approach, seeking to bring Egypt’s extremist groups to heel through a combination of force and dialogue. The strategy did not work. Continue reading here...

“Obama will strike for the people...The regime also are fighting for the people, and the opposition is fighting for the people. And the people are damned.” –Abdelkader, a municipal employee from Raqqa “Washington doesn’t understand the Middle East. [Obama’s] image here is of someone who is afraid of getting enmeshed in the machinations of the Middle East...There is no trust in Washington in the area because [people] think Obama is weak.” –Maher Abu-Teyr, a political columnist with Ad-Dustour, a semi-official Jordanian daily newspaper. “We are before a tyrannical authority with interests very far from the revolution.” –Gamal Eid, a rights lawyer in Egypt “And then there is the third side...The criminals. They will take everything from you.” –Ahmed, a Syrian teacher who fled to Lebanon “Wefaq has an agenda against Bahrain as a state, and thus its comments against Bahrain cannot be taken at face value.” –Samira Rajab, Bahraini minister of information affairs dismissed the opposition group’s condemnation of Bahrain’s newly announced pan-Arab human rights court “I know that this is not a postponement but a strategic pause to . . . set up for a surprise attack...Of course, people are depressed, and I’m having trouble convincing everyone that there will be a strike.” –Ahmad Nemah, a midlevel Syrian rebel commander “The price of bread is 300 Syrian pounds on the regime’s side and 65 on [the rebel] side...Yesterday the [rebels] did not allow me to cross with bread so I will try again today.” -Abdo, a 23 year-old accountant, who lives in government-held territory but works in a rebel-controlled area

Karl Sharro provides, in comical fashion, a guide to Syria’s moderate rebels. Sara Salem reviews the Egyptian military vis-à-vis the 2011 uprising. Alaya Allani argues that Tunisia’s Islamists promote an Islamist identity and not a modern Islamic one.

Significant Developments Syria. White House officials plan to brief members of Congress this evening on the situation in Syria after more than one hundred U.S. representatives signed a letter yesterday calling for President Obama to put the use of force against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government to a vote. Meanwhile, Britain and France called for a delay today in taking military action against the Syrian government until the UN inspectors currently on the ground finish their report. UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon said today that the team of chemical weapons inspectors in Syria will conclude their investigations tomorrow and leave the country on Saturday, one day ahead of schedule. In an interview with PBS’ Newshour yesterday, President Obama said that, “We have not yet made a decision...but we do have to make sure that when countries break international norms on chemical weapons that could threaten us, that they are held accountable.” A meeting of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council ended yesterday without taking action on a British resolution authorizing the use of force, due to Russian and Chinese opposition. The Arab League condemned Assad’s government on Tuesday for using chemical weapons but refused to back military action in retaliation. Egypt. Mohammed el-Beltagy, senior Muslim Brotherhood leader and head of the Freedom and Justice Party, was arrested today as supporters of deposed Egyptian president Mohammed Morsi called for renewed protests Friday. More than sixty people connected to the Muslim Brotherhood were detained yesterday by Egyptian security forces in an increasingly widening crackdown on the group. Mohammed Ali Bishr, a senior Muslim Brotherhood figure, reportedly met with representatives of Al Nour party on Wednesday to draft an initiative to the military with solutions to ending the current political crisis. Interim prime minister Hazem al-Beblawi said in a state media interview Tuesday that Egypt should not ban or exclude the Muslim Brotherhood from politics, seemingly backtracking on his proposal two weeks ago to dissolve the group. Meanwhile, a military court in Suez began the trial on Monday of sixty-four members of the Muslim Brotherhood, Jama’a Islamiya, and other supporters of Morsi. They were charged with inciting attacks against churches and security forces. U.S. Foreign Policy Jordan-Syria. Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey co-hosted a two-day meeting of senior army officials from ten countries with Jordan’s chief of staff Meshaal Mohamed al-Zaban in Amman on Monday and Tuesday. The meeting was focused on the regional impact of the war in Syria. Top generals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, and Canada were in attendance. Egypt. U.S. ambassador Anne Patterson will leave Egypt tomorrow, ending her roughly two-year term in Cairo. Yesterday, Patterson wrote a public letter to Abdel Nasser Salama, the editor in chief of state-owned Al Ahram newspaper, denouncing as “absurd and dangerous” an article in the newspaper that alleged that she was involved in a conspiracy to destabilize Egypt. Patterson further wrote that the U.S. embassy will bring the allegations against her to the “highest levels of the government to protest its publication and the irresponsible behavior that led to it.” David Satterfield will reportedly serve as temporary charge d’affaires until the next ambassador can be confirmed. Patterson was nominated to be the next Assistant Secretary of State for Near East affairs last month. Iran. The State Department released a statement yesterday “respectfully” asking new Iranian president Hassan Rouhani to help release three U.S. citizens who have been held in Tehran for at least one year. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Tunisia. Interior Minister Lotfi Ben Jeddou told a press conference yesterday that Tunisia’s extremist group Ansar al-Shariah is linked to al Qaeda. Tunisian prime minister Ali Larayedh labeled Ansar al-Sharia a terrorist organization on Tuesday, blaming the group for the assassination of two opposition figures and multiple attacks on Tunisian security forces this year. Jordan. Jordan held nation-wide municipal elections Tuesday producing very low turnouts. While the elections were considered free and fair, only 37.3 percent of registered voters participated. The rate was particularly low in Amman, where only 10.5 percent of eligible voters participated. Israel. The Israeli military mobilized a small number of reservists on Wednesday in preparation for the possibility of retaliation against Israel for a potential Western strike on Syria. While Israelis rushed to collect gas masks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a statement urging calm but also stating that, “we are prepared for any scenario.” Libya. Seif al-Islam, the son of former dictator Muammar Qaddafi, and former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senoussi were charged in a Tripoli court on Tuesday with murder during Libya’s civil war in 2011. Twenty-six former members of Qaddafi’s government were also charged. The trial is set to begin on September 19. Iran. Marzeih Afkham was announced as the first ever female spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry today. Previously, Afkham had served as director of the Foreign Ministry’s media and public diplomacy department. Iranian president Rouhani reportedly asked officials to appoint women to high posts in the government. Meanwhile, a new IAEA report released yesterday stated that Iran is slowing its accumulation of uranium refined to 20 percent, while simultaneously expanding its installation of new refining equipment. The report revealed that Iran is set to hold a new round of talks with nuclear inspectors in September. Iraq. More than a dozen coordinated bombs exploded within an hour-long period yesterday in Baghdad. The wave of bombings mostly hit Shiite neighborhoods and killed at least sixty-five people and wounded many more. Meanwhile, Iraq’s Supreme Federal Court overturned a law passed in January that set a two-term limit for the offices of the prime minister, president, and Parliament speaker. Lebanon. President Michael Sleiman appealed to all political forces yesterday to avoid regional conflicts and “reconsider the disassociation policy based on the Baabda Declaration,” after calling for a new government and renewed national dialogue over the weekend. A suspect in the devastating car bombing that struck Tripoli last Friday and killed at least forty-seven reportedly told Lebanese security forces on Tuesday that Syrian intelligence directly planned the attack. West Bank. Protesters and Palestinian security forces clashed on Wednesday in Ramallah as police broke up a small demonstration against the resumption of peace talks with Israel. Ma’an reported on Tuesday that Israeli and Palestinian negotiators met in Jericho on Monday, despite an announcement by Palestinian officials that a planned round of talks had been cancelled after Israeli security personnel killed three Palestinians earlier in the day. The two negotiating teams reportedly met at the home of Saeb Erekat, the chief Palestinian negotiator.

Over this past weekend one of my Economist-devouring, Washington Post-reading, New York Times-gobbling buddies who does not work in the field of foreign affairs asked me, “Hey, what’s up with Erdogan and the Turks?”  I’ve been asked this question so many times this summer by so many people that I have lost count.  It’s been a long summer in Turkey, starting in May with the Gezi Park protests that revealed a depth of anger toward Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), which seemed to surprise the Turkish leadership.  Then in early August there were the Ergenekon verdicts, which brought to a close a five year investigation and trial in an alleged plot to undermine Erdogan and his government.  The trials may be over (excluding appeals), but the controversy around Ergenekon continues.  In between these two bookends have been the deteriorating situation in Syria, the coup in Egypt, a slowing economy, and the beginning of a peace process with the Kurdistan Workers Party.  The combined pressure of all of the events seems to have gotten to the prime minister who has been bullying domestic critics, engaging in conspiracies about “interest rate lobbies” intent on bringing down the Turkish economy, and generally finger-pointing at everyone but himself for the difficulties Turkey now confronts at home and abroad. As the Gezi Park-inspired protests have faded somewhat, the July 3 military intervention in Egypt that brought down Mohammed Morsi seems to be the issue that is currently consuming Prime Minister Erdogan.  In language that was once reserved only for Israelis, the Turkish political elite is lashing out at the Egyptians.  Prime Minister Erdogan is alone among world leaders in advocating forcefully on behalf of the Muslim Brotherhood and Morsi. He has blamed the coup on the Israelis and the Gulf countries while wrecking Ankara’s ties with Egypt as well as blowing Turkish soft power. It would be a logical fallacy to suggest that because Erdogan is virtually alone (the Ecuadoreans recalled their ambassador in Cairo over the coup) in this issue that he is thus wrong, but the Turkish leader tends to have trouble with context, though more about that down below.  Regime mouthpieces like Taha Ozhan of the unofficially AKP-affiliated advocacy organization/think tank, SETA Foundation, have gone so far as to link Major General Abdelfattah al Sisi with Bashar al Assad in some sort of new axis of evil.  In the end, however, Egypt’s present tribulations are, according to Ozhan, the fault of the United States.  What is new?  On the face of it, Ozhan’s missive should not be taken seriously, but for the fact that it reflects the dominant political thinking within the AKP.  There are any number of shills who are all too willing to explain away the convulsions in and around Turkey as some sort of “Zionist-provocateur, interest rate lobby, American conspiracy against Muslim democrats,” rather than a serious examination of the pressures, interests, and issues that have led to a range of dramatic developments in the Middle East recently. The Turks, it seems, are the last Orientalists. So why have the Turks reacted this way?  Someone recently suggested—I can’t remember where—that perhaps Erdogan’s overwrought response to Egypt, which seems to serve no purpose other than alienating yet another major Middle Eastern country, was the result of an allegedly undisclosed health problem. This is the same kind of silliness some people used to explain Vice President Dick Cheney’s behavior during the Bush years.  Allegedly the vice president’s heart condition made him do it.  A more analytically sound argument for the behavior of the Turkish prime minister and his minions revolves around three issues: 1)      It should not be a surprise that Prime Minister Erdogan would react strongly and negatively to a coup d’état.  Turkey’s history of military interventions is hardly worth repeating, but suffice it to say that in the coups of 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997 political forces representing pious Muslims suffered.  The Turkish military was responsible for the development of a political system that was geared specifically to prevent the accumulation of Kurdish, Islamist, and at one time communist political power.  The result was that many, especially in the West, saw the Turkish armed forces as a “moderating force” that ensured what people considered a democratic system.  To Islamists, however, the military enforced a Jacobin-like secularism that repressed them because they took their religion seriously and wanted to live in a truly secular system where government did not control religion, but rather protected religious rights.  Even as Erdogan has become the sun around which Turkish politics revolves, bringing the military to heel, presiding over an economic boom, and bringing new prestige and influence to Turkey, he remains deeply concerned about the next coup even if circumstances suggest it is unlikely to happen.  Against the backdrop of the Turkish Republic’s history, Erdogan could not possibly let al Sisi’s coup go.  He is correct that there is nothing democratic about the Egyptian military’s actions, but the Turkish prime minister seems to have willfully overlooked the fact that Mohammed Morsi and the Muslim Brothers hardly distinguished themselves as democrats over the course of the last year.  It was clear from what the Brotherhood-dominated Shura Council was doing that Morsi and the Guidance Office were seeking to institutionalize the power of their organization with little regard for the principles of democratic politics.  Erdogan simply refuses to see the Egyptian dilemma or recognize that the Brothers had no intention of forging a democratic system. 2)      As I have written elsewhere on any number of occasions, Tayyip Erdogan is an extraordinary politician.  He has an innate capability to connect with the average Turk and the vital center of the electorate.  Sure he’s been in power for a decade and seems isolated from society, but he is still the guy from Kasımpaşa.  When Erdogan rails against interest rate lobbies, blames foreign hands, blasts Gulf leaders, assails Egyptian generals, and ostentatiously weeps over Palestinian blood, he is connecting with his constituency.  Everything the prime minister does is directly related to domestic politics so it does not matter that his rhetoric contributes to the erosion of Turkey’s strategic position in the region, because this type of rhetoric resonates deeply.  The domestic turbulence as a result of the Gezi protests, in particular, has given Erdogan an opportunity to play on Turkish sensitivities about the predatory role of external powers.  These ideas crystallized—for good reason—in the immediate post WWI era, but remain potent almost a century later.  The tough rhetoric also insulates Erdogan from setbacks because he has framed the terms of debate in a way that no matter what happens to the economy, it is not his or his government’s fault, but rather the responsibility of foreign bankers.  In an unintended way, Turkey’s troubles may actually help Erdogan politically. 3)      Erdogan’s visceral response to what has happened to Morsi is a function of the Turkish leader’s own (more successful) efforts to do what the former Egyptian president tried.  If you strip away the lore of a politically and economically liberalizing Turkey, the AKP has done what the Egyptian armed forces did not permit the Muslim Brotherhood to do.  The Justice and Development Party has consolidated its power and in the process has made it exceedingly difficult to challenge the party in the formal political arena.  The party’s members and their allies have used the last decade to exploit economic opportunities that are recycled through the political system, further institutionalizing the power of the party.  Coming on the heels of the Gezi protests, Erdogan cannot allow anyone to draw parallels, however abstract, between the dynamics that led to the coup in Egypt and the political-economic circumstances that prevail in Turkey.  This is not to suggest that Turkey is ripe for a coup or even that the Turkish military could pull one off, but rather that the illiberal drift in Turkish politics renders the country’s political environment more like Egypt than, say, any of Ankara’s Western partners. The end result is a Turkey that is more insular, less democratic, and pricklier than at any time during Erdogan’s tenure.  In other words, the new Turkey looks a lot like the old one.

Significant Developments Syria. French foreign minister Laurent Fabius called today for a forceful international response  to reports that the Syrian regime used chemical weapons outside Damascus yesterday. However, Fabius added that “there is no question of sending troops on the ground.” The UN Security Council held an emergency session yesterday and issued a statement calling for a prompt investigation into the alleged use of chemical weapons; however the UN team of chemical weapons inspectors that is currently in Damascus does not have permission from the Syrian government to investigate the site of yesterday’s attack. Syria’s opposition claims the government is responsible for the chemical weapons attack, but the Assad regime denies any involvement. Hundreds, and possibly thousands, of men, women, and children were killed in Wednesday’s attack. Meanwhile, clashes between Kurdish militias and al Qaeda-linked rebel groups in the northern provinces of Syria have escalated in the past week in what threatens to become a new war. Elsewhere, regime troops retook large swathes of President Bashar al-Assad’s home province of Latakia on Monday. Egypt. Former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was released from prison today and transported by helicopter to Maadi Military hospital. The move followed an appeals court ruling yesterday that Mubarak had been held the maximum number of days pre-verdict. Interim prime minister Hazem al-Beblawi ordered Mubarak to be held under house arrest following his release. Mubarak still faces charges of corruption and the deaths of protesters during the 2011 revolution. Mahmoud Ezzat was named interim leader of the Muslim Brotherhood on Tuesday, after Egyptian security forces arrested Mohamed Badie, the supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood, earlier in the day. Tunisia. The ruling Nahda party agreed in principle today to a plan proposed by the UGTT trade union federation for the transition to new elections. The plan calls for the current government to step down and for a neutral interim cabinet to steer the country to new elections. The Nahda party previously rejected calls for a nonpartisan government, but now appears willing to shift its position. Tunisia has been experiencing a fresh wave of protests following the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi, the second opposition figure to be killed in the past six months. U.S. Foreign Policy Egypt. President Barack Obama met with his national security team on Tuesday to discuss responses to the Egyptian military’s crackdown. White House spokesman Josh Earnest denied on Tuesday that U.S. aid to Egypt had been cutoff or suspended as had been suggested by Senator Patrick Leahy’s office earlier in the day. “A decision to cut off aid would be announced, if it were to be announced, after that review had been completed,” Earnest told reporters, referring to the still ongoing review of aid that Obama ordered in July. Syria. General Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, wrote in a letter to Representative Eliot Engel on Monday that, “Syria today is not about choosing between two sides but rather about choosing one among many sides.” He acknowledged the United States could take out the Syrian air force, but that such action might “further commit the United States to the conflict.” Dempsey was responding to a letter from Engel that inquired about the potential for punishing President Bashar al-Assad’s government. Dempsey’s response pre-dates reports that the Syrian regime used chemical weapons on Wednesday. Lebanon. Maura Connelly, U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, left the country on Tuesday, completing three years as the top U.S. official in the country. David Hale, former U.S. special envoy for Middle East peace, is expected to take over the post in the next few weeks. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Iran. Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran’s longtime ambassador to the International Nuclear Energy Agency, told Reuters yesterday that he will leave his post on September 1. Soltanieh will be the third senior nuclear official replaced since President Hassan Rouhani assumed office on August 3. A spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry told reporters on Tuesday that newly confirmed Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif may handle nuclear negotiations. Iraq. Over thirty thousand refugees have streamed into Iraq from Syria over the past week. Aid agencies reported on Tuesday that the Kurdistan regional government has put in place a quota limiting the number of refugees to three thousand per day. Meanwhile three separate car bombings in southern cities on Tuesday killed at least ten people. Lebanon. Hezbollah member of parliament Ali Miqdad defended his group’s stepped-up security measures in Beirut today in response to a car bombing that killed twenty-seven people last week. Members of the Future parliamentary bloc criticized Hezbollah’s checkpoints in the capital’s southern suburbs on Tuesday for being “militia-like.” Last week’s car bombing was the deadliest in Lebanon in decades. This Week in History This week marks the twentieth anniversary of the initialing of the "Declaration of Principles on Interim Self-Government Arrangements," also known as the Oslo Accords. On August 20, 1993, Israeli officials Uri Savir and Joel Singer joined senior Palestinian Liberation Organization officials Ahmed Qurei (Abu Alaa) and Hassan Asfour to initial the Declaration of Principles. Also attending was Israeli foreign minister Shimon Peres. The agreement to negotiate further interim measures had been secretly negotiated between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators in Norway. Soon after the initialing of the agreement, Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO chairman Yasser Arafat traveled to Washington where they signed the agreements on the White House lawn on September 13, 1993.

Wael Nawara, writing for Al Monitor, discusses the Egyptian interim government’s threat to place the Muslim Brotherhood on the terrorist list, claiming that this could be the end of an era for the organization.

Rania al Malky, writing on Egypt Monocle, criticizes the false dichotomies of Egypt, arguing that the long-term consequences of the narratives will haunt the country for generations.

Nadia el-Awady writes that Egypt’s destructive battle for power overshadows the ethos of the January 25, 2011 revolution and makes establishing democracy in Egypt almost impossible.