Egypt

Significant Developments Iran. Negotiators from Iran and the P5+1 countries hinted at a possible extension of the November 24 deadline for a nuclear deal, after three days of talks in Oman failed to provide a breakthrough in the negotiations. However, Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes stressed publicly that the United States was “not focused in discussions with Iran on extending [the deadline], [in order] to keep the focus on closing gaps.” The negotiators will meet again in Vienna next Tuesday for the final week of talks. Meanwhile, Russia agreed on Tuesday to build two nuclear power reactors in Iran and a possible six more plants. The construction and fuel handling will be monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel-Palestine. King Abdullah of Jordan is hosting trilateral talks in Amman with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry over growing tensions in Jerusalem. Kerry was scheduled to meet Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas separately today after meeting King Abdullah for dinner yesterday evening. Israel announced plans yesterday to build 200 new units in the Ramot neighborhood of East Jerusalem. U.S. State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki criticized the announcement, saying that the United States was “deeply concerned by this decision, particularly given the tense situation in Jerusalem as well as the unequivocal and unanimous position of the United States and others in the international community opposing such construction in east Jerusalem.” Palestinian militants are suspected of killing an Israeli soldier and a woman in two separate stabbing attacks on Monday. West Bank residents yesterday accused “Israeli extremists” of burning down a local mosque. Syria. The Free Syrian Army rejected a United Nations proposal for a truce in Aleppo yesterday. The proposal is part of a plan by UN envoy Staffan de Mistura to implement localized ceasefires. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said the proposal was “worth studying.” Meanwhile, vehicles carrying food and aid supplies entered neighborhoods of Damascus and Homs between Tuesday and Wednesday, following localized truces there between government forces and opposition fighters. U.S. Foreign Policy UN. The UN Committee on Torture questioned American officials in Geneva yesterday on the United States’ reasons for maintaining the internment camp at Guantanamo Bay, its treatment of prisoners during the “War on Terror,” and on reports of abuse in United States prisons. U.S. legal advisor Mary McLeod told the Committee that the United States had “crossed the line […] in the wake of the 9/11 attacks [and] regrettably did not live up to [their] own values.” Iraq. President Barack Obama dispatched an additional 1,500 non-combatant troops to Iraq last Friday to help train and advise Iraqi and Kurdish forces battling ISIS. The White House also announced plans to request $1.6 billion from Congress to create an “Iraq Train and Equip Fund.” Rear Admiral John Kirby, spokesman for the Pentagon, said Congress’ approval of the funds would be a prerequisite for the deployment of troops. Congress may grant the approval within the next few weeks. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Egypt. Egypt’s most violent militant group, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, pledged loyalty to ISIS on Monday. The two militant groups are expected to share financial resources, weapons, and recruits. The affiliation provides ISIS with a possible victory against al-Qaeda, which has traditionally maintained strong roots in Egypt. The decision is reportedly causing internal rifts between the leaders of the two factions of Ansar Beit al-Maqdis: While the Sinai leaders pledged allegiance to ISIS, the Nile Valley faction made clear last week on Twitter that their allegiance remains to al-Qaeda. Jordan. Minister of Islamic Affairs Hayel Dawood announced new measures to restrict the spread of extremist Islamic preaching in the kingdom. In a series of meetings targeting five thousand imams around the country, Dawood set out the rules of the program, which aims to prosecute ISIS recruiters and to ensure that Jordanian Muslim clerics preach moderate Islam during the weekly Friday night sermon. Clerics were ordered to keep sermons short, avoid negative references to King Abdullah II and the royal family, avoid “slander” against the United States and Western allies, and avoid promoting sectarianism and support for jihad. Imams who collaborate with the government will receive a monthly salary of $600, travel assistance for the pilgrimage to Mecca, and the opportunity to attend religious workshops. Conversely, non-compliance will result in clerics being banned from preaching, and in severe cases being tried by the State Security Court under the newly stringent anti-terrorism law. Yemen. The Houthi rebels seem to have endorsed Yemen’s new government today despite continuing reservations over some of the ministers. The government, led by President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, was sworn-in on Sunday and was welcomed by the United States though rejected by former president Ali Abdullah Saleh’s party, the General People’s Congress. The United States imposed sanctions on Saleh and two Houthi military commanders, Abdullah Yahya al-Hakim and Abd al-Khaliq al-Huthi, for engaging in acts that “directly or indirectly threaten the peace, security, or stability of Yemen.” Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David S. Cohen stated that the United States would “hold accountable anyone who threatens the stability of Yemen and the efforts of the Yemeni people to accomplish a peaceful political transition.” Gaza. The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced on Monday that a panel will conduct an investigation into attacks on UN buildings during the Gaza war last summer. The panel will also seek to determine how weapons were stored in UN compounds in Gaza. The UN’s decision comes despite Israel’s request for the investigation to be postponed until the conclusions of its own internal investigation emerge. Lebanon. Hezbollah is reportedly recruiting young Christian, Druze, and Sunni Muslim men from the Bekaa valley in eastern Lebanon to join the Resistance Brigades, a militant group formed by Hezbollah in 2009. The recruitment in Lebanon mirrors the recruitment of Christian, Druze, and Alawites in Syria. The Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar stated that the members of the Resistance Brigades would not be fighting in Syria, but would be stationed in Lebanon to “monitor the Lebanese territory” and to “counter the threat of ISIS and its affiliates.” Iraq-Saudi Arabia. Iraqi President Fuad Masum visited Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to meet with King Abdullah in order to improve long standing tense relations between the two countries. Iraqi Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari confirmed that the meeting between the two leaders was to discuss “cooperation in the field of fighting terrorism and economic, trade and security relations.” The meeting, according to Zebari, was aimed at “normalizing diplomatic and political relations between the two countries.” Saudi Arabia. The deputy governor of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, Emir Jalwin bin Abdulaziz bin Musaid al-Saud, was transferred yesterday to the Najran region following last week’s attack against Shiite civilians in his province left seven people dead. The reasons for the governor’s transfer remain unconfirmed, but the move followed “Shiite calls for action against hate speech in the media.”  

Zineb Belmkaddem examines how the Moroccan authorities are clamping down on opposition movements. Dina El Khawaga argues that the Egyptian government is reproducing the authoritarian measures of the 1990s to consolidate its power. Henriette Chacar evaluates the Palestinian media’s response to the recent violence in Jerusalem.

Thomas Serres suggests that the recent police protests in Algeria demonstrate how Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s regime is “being inundated from all sides.” Fernando Carvajal reflects on the new power balance established by the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Nervana Mahmoud explores what makes Egypt’s liberals so seemingly illiberal.

Significant Developments Tunisia. The Tunisian election commission confirmed the victory of the secular party Nidaa Tunis in the country’s parliamentary elections held Sunday. It was Tunisia’s second parliamentary vote since the region wide Arab uprisings first erupted in the country in 2011. Nidaa Tunis, which is composed of liberals and politicians from earlier Zein al-Abidine Ben Ali regime, won 85 of the 217 parliamentary seats. Ennahda, the ruling Islamist party, finished second, winning 69 seats in parliament. The head of the EU observer mission, Annemie Neyts-Uyttebroeck, deemed the Tunisia’s parliamentary election “ transparent and credible.” Israel. Israel closed the Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount compound to visitors today as tensions continue to mount in Jerusalem. The move came after Israeli police shot and killed the Palestinian man suspected of seriously wounding Yehuda Glick, a right-wing Israeli activist in a drive-by shooting. Nabil Abu Rudeina, a spokesperson for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, strongly condemned the religious site’s closure, calling it a “dangerous Israeli escalation” and “a declaration of war on the Palestinian people and its scared places and on the Arab and Islamic nation.” Israeli officials subsequently announced that the site would be partially reopened on Friday. (For more on US-Israeli developments see the U.S. Foreign Policy section below.) ISIS. The first Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga fighters crossed the Turkish border into Syria yesterday to provide assistance to Syrian Kurdish fighters in Kobani. The group of some 150 peshmerga fighters was followed by a convoy of thirty-eight vehicles transporting heavy weaponry and supplies. Syria’s foreign ministry condemned Turkey’s decision to allow the fighters to cross into Syria, calling it “disgraceful” and a breach of sovereignty. Meanwhile, ISIS militants beheaded four tribesmen from eastern Syria on Monday. The men belonged to the Shaitat tribe, a Sunni group that had attempted an uprising against ISIS during the summer. U.S. Foreign Policy Israel. Amidst escalating diplomatic tensions, senior White House and State Department officials today tried to distance the Obama Administration from criticisms of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reported earlier in the week. An anonymous U.S. official was quoted in The Atlantic on Tuesday calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “chickenshit” while a second American official reportedly said that Netanyahu was a “coward” in his response to Iran’s nuclear threat. Earlier today, Netanyahu responded to the reports, stating that “the assault on me comes only because I defend the state of Israel.” The latest round of bilateral tensions mounted as Israel announced plans to expedite the development of over 1,000 new homes in the Har Homa and Ramat Shlomo neighborhoods of East Jerusalem on Monday. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki called the settlements “illegitimate,” while Netanyahu defended his position, stating that “Israel has every right to build in Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem.” Egypt. United States Secretary of Treasury Jacob Lew suggested on Monday in a meeting with Egyptian Finance Minister Hany Kadry Dimian in Cairo that the United States may provide international emergency loans to help rescue Egypt’s economy. The proposed bailout package is conditional on Egypt agreeing to implement further economic reforms recommended by the IMF. The announcement comes as the Egyptian government intensified its crack down on many civil society groups in recent weeks. On Monday, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi designated all public facilities, such as roads, bridges and power stations, military zones. This decree will enable civilians accused of attacking infrastructure targets to be tried under the harsher jurisdiction of Egypt’s military courts. On Sunday, a number of Egyptian newspapers pledged to refrain from criticizing state institutions. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Bahrain. A Bahraini administrative court decided on Tuesday to ban Bahrain’s main opposition group, Al Wefaq, from participating in parliamentary elections for three months. The group was banned for “violating the law on associations.” Al Wefaq had previously announced that it would boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections on November 22 regardless of the ruling. Lebanon. The Lebanese army restored calm following nearly a week of intense fighting against Al-Qaeda inspired Islamist fighters in Tripoli. The clashes were the most serious in the city since the start of the Syrian crisis in 2011, leaving 11 Lebanese soldiers, 8 civilians, and 22 jihadi fighters dead. The Lebanese army has arrested over 160 fighters since clashes began last Friday. Iran. The Iranian parliament voted on Wednesday to reject Mahmoud Nili Ahmadabadi for the post of science minister. Ahmadabadi, nominated by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, was rejected for allegedly not being “fully committed to Islamic values.” Meanwhile, the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Iran, Ahmed Shaheed, presented the results of his investigation on Monday before a session at the UN General Assembly. His findings indicate that Iran’s human rights record has deteriorated lately, with executions and the oppression of women increasing to a worrying degree. Egypt- Gaza. Egypt began to establish a buffer zone along its border with Gaza yesterday to protect the area from being targeted further by militants. Around 800 homes are to be demolished in the process, with residents already being forced to evacuate from the area. This initiative comes after a suicide bombing in the Sinai peninsula last Friday killed over thirty soldiers. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi ordered the Rafah crossing into Gaza closed, and impose a three-month state of emergency in a part of northern Sinai. According to a senior Egyptian official, the buffer is “vital for national security and stability.” Yemen. Three days of fighting between Houthi rebels and the powerful Qifa tribe in the town of Radda have left 250 people dead, according to security officials. The fighting has continued in recent weeks despite the Houthi rebels signing a ceasefire with the Yemeni government on September 20, 2014. Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi criticized the Houthi rebels on Sunday for the first time since they took control of the capital, saying that “the armed expansion of the Houthis…cannot be understood or accepted after signing the peace and national partnership agreement.” Iraq. Iraqi security forces discovered a mass grave in Ramadi today contained the bodies of 150 members of an Iraqi Sunni tribe who were buried last night after being kidnapped and killed. Isis militants are believed to be responsible for the killings and burials.    

Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew visited Cairo on Monday and no one seemed to notice or care. That’s probably because of the awful terrorist attack that took the lives of at least 31 Egyptian conscripts and reportedly two officers in the Sinai Peninsula over the weekend. Lew’s visit was not going to deal with any number of the hot topics on the U.S.-Egypt agenda—human rights, military and economic assistance, press freedoms, and the ongoing fight against extremism, anyway. “Economic statecraft,” it seems, is just not that sexy. Exciting or not, it is important, especially since the Obama administration seems to have come to the conclusion that the United States can be most constructive on Egypt through policies that focus on the economy. There is an assumption among many in the Beltway policy community that at least on economic issues and their solution, the United States and Egypt can agree. Working with other countries to aid their economic development is a good idea, of course, but I wonder whether, like so much of the conversation between Washington and Cairo, American and Egyptian officials have very different ideas about the right approach to Egypt’s economic problems. Don’t be surprised, then, if the economy becomes another point of friction, or if Egyptian decision makers just ignore Washington’s advice. It should not be a surprise to anyone paying attention that the Egyptians are not in favor of private sector-led inclusive economic growth and the range of neoliberal economic reforms that the United States and the IMF deem necessary to get there. They never really were. Anwar al-Sadat’s Infitah (opening) created a commercial economy without the institutions of a market economy. When he came close to implementing an IMF-recommended subsidy reform on basic foods in 1977, the ensuing demonstrations shook the regime. Hosni Mubarak resisted American economic advice mightily until the early 1990s before relenting and pursuing IMF reforms for about six months before it got too hard politically. It was not until 2003 when Gamal Mubarak (and a number of other advisors) convinced his Dad to kinda, sorta float the exchange rate. The following year, Mubarak appointed the so-called economic “Dream Team” of Ahmed Nazif, Mahmoud Mohieldin, Rashid Mohamed Rashid, and Youssef Boutros-Ghali to guide Egypt’s first-ever serious effort at neoliberal economic reforms. The resulting macroeconomic performance was impressive, but it came at a cost—the impoverishment of many Egyptians. Crony-capitalism and the rise of the puffed-up businessmen-politicos who populated Gamal’s National Democratic Party Policies Secretariat characterized that brief era. For President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his mostly military advisors, the late Mubarak period was a distortion of a political and economic order that had worked (i.e., it had maintained stability) for the previous five decades. Now they are returning to it. It is true that Sisi embarked on subsidy reform, especially in the energy sector, there have been price hikes on certain goods, and the bourse is suddenly buoyant with investor confidence, but the overall picture suggests a move back toward a more state-oriented economic approach. Here is why: As I have written in the past, undertaking IMF reforms is harder politically for Egypt’s leaders than it is economically. It seems that to many Egyptians the Fund is an affront to their nationalist sensibilities and reminiscent of the nineteenth century British and French Debt Commission that drew European powers further into Egyptian affairs. Consequently, do not expect the Egyptians to sign up for an IMF standby agreement soon, unless of course the economy craters. Subsidies exist not only as part of a (badly frayed) social safety net, but also as a means of political control. As a result, under current political circumstances, subsidy reform can only go so far. The $20 billion in various forms of assistance that Cairo has received since July 2013 from the Gulfies has refloated the Egyptian economy, instilling a semblance of economic stability. It is true that the Emiratis and Saudis have talked a good game about the need for Egyptian reform and there are limits to how much aid they are willing to provide. It is also true that there are questions about the Gulf states’ capacity to deliver the amounts of assistance the Egyptians need over a long period of time. Even so, expect the aid to continue uninterrupted. The Emiratis and Saudis want Egypt to have a functioning economy to instill the regime with legitimacy, thereby diminishing the risk of another uprising and the potential return of the Muslim Brotherhood. That’s why the Gulf states are not likely to reduce or turn off the flow of aid. Think of it this way: The relationship between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt is similar to that of New York banks that invested heavily in Latin America in the 1970s. When the economies there crashed, the bankers had no choice but to extend more credit to them, otherwise they risked going belly-up themselves. The geo-political interests that have dictated the Gulf states’ huge investment in the post-July coup d’état political system are not going away, and now that the Emiratis, Saudis, and Kuwaitis have put so much money into Egypt, it is going to be extraordinarily difficult for them to get out. The Egyptians know this. Supporters of President Sisi hailed the announcement this past summer of a series of “mega-projects,” including the widening of the Suez Canal and the revival of something called the New Nile Valley Project (also known as Toshka), which failed in the early 2000s. The cheerleaders for this stuff need to take Economics 450 “Public Investment Decision-Making” all over again. There is no reason to believe that widening the Canal will produce double the traffic and double the revenue that Cairo is predicting. There is also no reason to believe that Toshka will be a success this time around. This likely does not matter to Egypt’s leaders, though. These big projects provide people with work even if the return on investment is not great. Taken together, these factors suggest that the Egyptian leadership continues to put a premium on what they have always believed to be most important: stability. And just as Mubarak learned the lesson of reforms from the 1977 bread riots, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has learned the lessons of the economic reforms of the latter Mubarak period and has decided to move Egypt back to a place where economic rationale was secondary to the political and social goals of the state. One could argue the merits of this approach, but it reveals how far apart Washington and Cairo are on the seemingly non-controversial, though highly consequential, issue of Egypt’s economic development. I have no idea about the quality of Secretary Lew’s conversations with Egyptian officials, and I do not know if he has ever had the pleasure of visiting Cairo before, but I hope he and his staff had the chance to visit some of Egypt’s first mega-projects—the Pyramids.

Explore the Qatar Digital Library, an archive featuring the cultural and historical heritage of the Gulf and the wider region. Janet Basurto, writing for Egyptian Streets, explores the reasons behind Egypt’s intervention in Libya. Mark N. Katz examines the security worries of the GCC countries.

I have written before about New York’s City’s African-born population. Here, I want to call attention to the current wave of African immigration to the United States. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, on October 23, 2014, the population of the United States was 319,131,500, the third largest in the world, after China and India. According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey conducted 2008-2012, there were 39.8 million foreign-born in the United States. Of them, 1.6 million were from Africa, that is about 4 percent of the foreign-born population. That is a big increase from 1970, when there were only about eighty thousand foreign born from Africa, representing less than 1 percent of the foreign born population in the United States. Our African immigrant communities are mostly new. About three quarters of our Africa-born population came to the U.S. after 1990. Census Bureau reports suggest specific milestones in African immigration. The U.S. Immigration Act of 1965 replaced the national origin quota system with a new law that prioritized skilled labor, family unification, and humanitarian concerns. In 2010, about a quarter of African immigrants came to the United States as refugees or received asylum. More generally, as the American economy pulled ahead of the old colonial powers and immigration to Western Europe became more difficult, the United States became increasingly attractive as a destination for African immigrants in the last quarter of the twentieth century. Many Africans also came to the United States in search of educational opportunities. The four countries that provide the largest number of immigrants are Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Egypt. (Unlike the U.S. Department of State, the Census Bureau includes the North African Mediterranean littoral states as part of Africa rather than the Middle East). The four states that have received the largest number of immigrants are New York, California, Texas, and Maryland. Together, they include over one-third of the foreign born from Africa. The metropolitan areas with the largest African-born population are New York City, Washington, D.C., Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Minneapolis/St. Paul. African immigrants are well educated. Forty-one percent of our African foreign-born have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 28 percent of the foreign born population as a whole. As of 2011, according to the Census Bureau, about 30 percent of the entire American population that is twenty-five years or older has a bachelor’s degree or equivalent. The American Community Survey shows that the foreign-born population of African origin is still small relative to other groups, despite its rapid growth. Unlike Europe, China, or Japan, the American population is not graying, largely because of immigration. The relative youthfulness of the American population is a source of vitality, and Africans are making their contribution.

Significant Developments Turkey-Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday called on the U.S.-led coalition to supply arms and training to opposition ground troops in Syria, arguing that “Kobani [was] about to fall” to ISIS. Erdogan nonetheless refused to commit Turkish ground forces. The Turkish leader’s decision to withhold ground troops, stemming primarily from a refusal to engage with affiliates of the PKK, sparked clashes between Kurdish protesters and security forces throughout Turkey. More than 19 people were killed and 36 injured in the confrontations Tuesday night and Turkish authorities imposed curfews in six provinces. Meanwhile, ISIS is poised to take the town of Kobani, where over 12,000 Kurdish civilians are currently trapped. The U.S.-led coalition has conducted 11 airstrikes against ISIS troops around Kobani this week, but Pentagon spokesperson Rear Admiral John Kirby said today that, “airstrikes alone are not ... going to save the town of Kobani.” Egypt. The Sinai-based extremist Islamist group, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, released a video on Monday showing members of the group beheading three Egyptian nationals and shooting to death a fourth. The group accused the three Egyptians who were beheaded of collaborating with Israeli Intelligence. The Egyptian who was shot dead reportedly confessed to serving as an informant for the Egyptian military. The video also included clips of recent speeches by ISIS leaders, implying that Ansar Beit al-Maqdis may be forging closer ties with the group. Egyptian military officials yesterday claimed the army killed 16 members of the group in operations targeting the militia’s hideouts. U.S. Foreign Policy UAE-Turkey-Saudi Arabia. Vice President Joseph Biden called Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi on Sunday to apologize for comments made during a foreign policy speech at Harvard last Thursday. Biden had told a questioner that the United States’ biggest issue in its fight against ISIS and Syria was “America’s allies in the region.” He further accused the UAE of “funneling” weapons to Syrian rebels, enabling them to fall into the hands of extremists. It was the second apology of the weekend for Biden, who called Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday to make amends for comments made during the same speech about Turkey allowing foreign fighters to cross its borders. A senior White House official confirmed on Monday that Biden was also reaching out to apologize to Saudi Arabia. Iraq-Syria. U.S. Central Command released figures on Monday indicating that the Pentagon has spent over $1.1 billion on U.S. army and navy operations in Iraq and Syria since the middle of June. Officials speculate that daily costs have totaled between $7 and $10 million dollars since then. Costs increased noticeably once U.S. airstrikes began over Iraq in August and continued to rise when military operations were extended to Syria in September. Israel. The White House responded strongly on Monday to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s suggestion the day before on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that criticism of Israel’s settlement activity was contrary to “American values.” White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest retorted that “American values” were responsible for providing “unwavering support to Israel” and that U.S. funding for the Iron Dome had ensured the safety of Israeli citizens from Hamas rockets in the Gaza conflict this summer. President Barack Obama had warned that the building of new settlements risked “poison[ing] the atmosphere” with Palestinians and the Arab World. While We Were Looking Elsewhere Yemen. Houthi rebels rejected the nomination of Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak as new prime minister on Tuesday. The Houthis did not consider him sufficiently independent since he is a top aide of President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi. In other news, security officials in Yemen reported today the occurrence of six simultaneous attacks on security bases and government offices in the south of the capital, Sana’a. The blasts, which killed twenty-nine people, have been attributed to alleged al-Qaeda militants. Iraq. Dutch F-16 fighter planes carried out their first strikes against ISIS targets in Iraq on Tuesday in support of the U.S.-led coalition. The strikes allegedly destroyed several vehicles, and may also have succeeding in killing ISIS fighters. Meanwhile, the Canadian parliament voted to join the international coalition in airstrikes against ISIS in Iraq. Israel-ISIS. Police in Nazareth retrieved around two dozen flags bearing the ISIS logo from the city’s industrial area. Police have begun investigating potential uses and owners. Israel officially banned forging relationships with anyone affiliated with ISIS in September. Israeli police recently apprehended two ISIS supporters: a 24 year old teacher, who confessed to smuggling ISIS and jihad-related material from Jordan; and a Palestinian woman prisoner who praised ISIS to other prisoners. Israeli officials complained to the Swedish ambassador to Jerusalem on Monday to object to Sweden’s new prime minister’s decision to recognize a state of Palestine. The new center-right government, led by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, would be the first member of the EU to recognize a Palestinian state. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called the decision “counter-productive,” while officials in Washington called the announcement “premature.” Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed responsibility yesterday for planting a bomb on Lebanon’s southern border that injured two Israeli soldiers. The explosion came two days after Israeli soldiers fired at a Lebanese Army post. In retaliation, the Israeli army fired artillery close to residential areas along the border. Today the U.S. embassy in Beirut in Lebanon called on Hezbollah and the Lebanese army to support the United Nations peacekeeping efforts to maintain quiet on the ground.

International efforts to combat ISIS dominated the recent debate in New York when world leaders converged for the UN General Assembly’s sixty-ninth session. Middle East Matters has excerpted passages from regional leaders, all of whom spoke about the ISIS challenge, though in markedly different ways. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and this summer’s fighting also featured heavily, with most speeches specifically calling for the Gaza strip to be rebuilt. Also noteworthy was what wasn’t mentioned. Niether Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi nor Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moualem said a word about Gaza. Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani chose not to name ISIS explicitly, though he implied that the Assad regime was to blame for the region’s ills. Here’s what some of them had to say:   President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt On ISIS-Terrorism “The formation of a new government approved by the Parliament in the brotherly country of Iraq is a significant development that restores hope in the possibility of an improvement in the situation there, and in the success of the internal and external attempts to achieve stability, restore the areas that fell under the control ofthe terrorist organization ‘ISIS’, maintain the territorial integrity of Iraq, end the bloodshed, and realize the aspirations and hopes of the Iraqis, as well as their efforts to bring back security and stability in their country.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “Despite the multitude of crises threatening our region, some of which I alluded to, the Palestinian issue remains a top priority for Egypt. Palestinians still aspire to establish their independent state on the occupied territories in 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital, on the basis of the principles upon which the peace process was established since the nineteen seventies following an Egyptian initiative. These principles are not up for negotiation, otherwise the basis of a comprehensive peace in the region would erode, and the values of justice and humanity would vanish. The continued deprivation of the Palestinian people of their rights is undoubtedly exploited by some to inflame other crises, achieve hidden goals, fragment Arab unity, and impose control on Palestinians under the guise of realizing their aspirations.” On Egypt’s internal situation “The world is starting to grasp the reality of what happened in Egypt, and to understand the circumstances that drove Egyptians to intuitively take to the streets to rebel against the forces of extremism and darkness, which once in power, undermined the foundations of the democratic process and national institutions, and sought to impose a state of polarization to break the unity ofthe people.” President Hassan Rouhani, Iran On ISIS-Terrorism “I deeply regret to say that terrorism has become globalized: "From New York to Mosul, from Damascus to Baghdad, from the Easternmost to the Westernmost parts of the world, from Al-Qaeda to Daesh". The extremists of the world have found each other and have put out the call: "extremists of the world unite". But are we united against the extremists?!” “The strategic blunders of the West in the Middle-East, Central Asia, and the Caucuses have turned these parts of the world into a haven for terrorists and extremists.” On Israel/Palestine//Gaza “Had we had greater cooperation and coordination in the Middle East, thousands of innocent Palestinians in Gaza would not have been fallen victim to Zionist regime’s aggression.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel On ISIS-Terrorism "Last week, many of the countries represented here rightly applauded President Obama for leading the effort to confront ISIS. And yet weeks before, some of the same countries, the same countries that now support confront ISIS, opposed Israel for confronting Hamas. They evidently don’t understand that ISIS and Hamas are branches of the same poisonous tree." “So, when it comes to their ultimate goals, Hamas is ISIS and ISIS is Hamas”. “But they all share a fanatic ideology. They all seek to create ever expanding enclaves of militant Islam where there is no freedom and no tolerance- where women are treated as chattel, Christians are decimated, and minorities are subjugated, sometimes given the stark choice: convert or die.” On Israeli-Palestinian peace “Many have long assumed that an Israeli-Palestinian peace can help facilitate a broader rapprochement between Israel and the Arab World. But these days I think it may work the other way around: Namely that a broader rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world may help facilitate an Israeli-Palestinian peace. And therefore, to achieve that peace, we must look not only to Jerusalem and Ramallah, but also to Cairo, to Amman, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and elsewhere […]” On Iran "The Nazis believed in a master race. The militant Islamists believe in a master faith. They just disagree about who among them will be the master...of the master faith. That’s what they truly disagree about. Therefore, the question before us is whether militant Islam will have the power to realize its unbridled ambitions. There is one place where that could soon happen: The Islamic State of Iran." "Imagine how much more dangerous the Islamic State, ISIS, would be if it possessed chemical weapons. Now imagine how much more dangerous the Islamic state of Iran would be if it possessed nuclear weapons." His Majesty King Abdullah II, Jordan On ISIS-Terrorism “The teachings of true Islam are clear: sectarian conflict and strife are utterly condemned. Islam prohibits violence against Christians and other communities that make up each country. Let me say once again: Arab Christians are an integral part of my region’s past, present, and future.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “We cannot address the future of my region without addressing its central conflict: the denial of Palestinian rights and statehood.” “A first, imperative step is to mobilise international efforts to rebuild Gaza. As we do so, we must also marshal the united, global response needed to achieve a once-and-for-all, lasting settlement.” On Refugees “The heavy flow of Syrian refugees continues. My country is sheltering nearly 1.4 million Syrians. We are now the world’s third largest host of refugees. This is placing an overwhelming burden on Jordan’s people, infrastructure and already limited resources.” President Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine On ISIS-Terrorism “Confronting the terrorism that plagues our region by groups - such as "ISIL" and others that have no basis whatsoever in the tolerant Islamic religion or with humanity and are committing brutal and heinous atrocities - requires much morethan military confrontation. […] It requires, in this context and as a priority, bringing an end to the Israeli occupation of our country, which constitutes in its practices and perpetuation, an abhorrent form of state terrorism anda breeding ground for incitement, tension and hatred.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza "This last war against Gaza was a series of absolute war crimes carried out before the eyes and ears of the entire world, moment by moment, in a manner that makes it inconceivable that anyone today can claim that they did not realize the magnitude and horror of the crime." “We reaffirm here that the primary prerequisite for the success of all these plans and efforts is an end to the ongoing Israeli blockade that has for years suffocated the Gaza Strip and turned it into the largest prison in the world for nearly two million Palestinian citizens. At the same time, we affirm our commitment and the necessity to consolidate the cease-fire through negotiations under the auspices of Egypt.” Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, Qatar On ISIS-Terrorism “It has been proven beyond doubt, that terrorism can only be defeated in its social environment. If societies are to stand with us in the fight against terrorism, we need to be fair with them and not push them to choose between terrorism and tyranny, or between terrorism and sectarian discrimination.” “This is what the majority of the Syrian people must be persuaded of after being soaked in blood spilled by the Syrian regime for daring to demand freedom and dignity.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “The damages caused by the repeated Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip over the past years, the unjust siege imposed on it, and the destruction it caused in its infrastructure, make it imperative for the international community to compel Israel to implement the resolutions of the international legitimacy, fulfill its obligations and expedite the removal of obstacles in order to lift the blocade and achieve the reconstruction process.” “The international community’s response to the aspirations of the Palestinian people to freedom and national independence is a prerequisite to confirm the justice of international legitimacy, especially since the question of Palestine is the last remaining issue on the decolonization agenda.” Minister of Foreign Affairs Walid Al-Moualem, Syria On ISIS-Terrorism “You are witnessing today what the ISIS, the most dangerous terrorist organization in the world at all in terms of funding and brutality is doing to Syrians and Iraqis of all spectra and religions. This terrorist organization is enslaving women, raping them and selling them in slave markets; it is cutting heads and limbs, and it is teaching children slaughter and murder, besides destroying historical and cultural monuments, as well as Islamic and Christian Symbols.” “Has not the moment of truth arrived for us all to admit that ISIS, Al-Nusrah Front and the rest of Al-Qaeda affiliates, will not be limited within the borders of Syria and Iraq, but will spread to every spot it can reach, starting with Europe and America?” “Let us together stop this ideology and its exporters, let us, simultaneously, exert pressure on the countries that joined the coalition led by the United States to stop their support of armed terrorist groups”. On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “Syria confirms, also, that the Palestinian issue is the central issue of the Syrian people, which supports the inalienable and legitimate rights of the brotherly Palestinian people, particularly, the right to return and self-determination, and to establish its independent state on its land, with Jerusalem as its capital.” On the internal political situation in Syria “Now, after the presidential elections, we would like to tell everyone that who wants and looks forward to a political solution in Syria that they must firstly respect the Syrian people’s will, which was manifested explicitly, clearly, strongly and most loudly. They chose their President, for the first time in Syria’s modern history, in multi-party elections, with international monitors from several countries that witnessed the integrity, transparency and the enthusiasm of the people to participate in these elections.” Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, United Arab Emirates On ISIS-Terrorism “With the increased incidence of terrorism and extremism in our region, most notably perpetrated by ISIS, the international community must be aware that the threats posed by these terrorist and extremist groups are expanding beyond our region to threaten the rest of the civilized world.” On Israel/Palestine/Gaza “The UAE strongly condemns Israel’s aggression against Gaza, especially the destruction inflicted upon its population and civilian facilities, including the United Nations’ facilities, and we demand a thorough, transparent and independent investigation be conducted, in order to determine the legal responsibility for these damages.” On Egypt “This hope is driven by the remarkable progress achieved by the new government in Egypt and its good governance in implementing its political roadmap. Despite the challenges facing Egypt, the signs of normalcy in public life and the revived economy and culture are promising.” “Therefore, the UAE regrets the statements of some countries and their unacceptable questioning of the legitimacy of the Egyptian government. The present Egyptian government was freely elected by its people, who believe in their ability to fulfill their aspirations. Questioning the Egyptian people’s will and their right to choose their representatives is an interference in the internal affairs of Egypt and undermines its stability. Accordingly, I would like to emphasize that the stability of our region depends on the stability of Egypt.”  

Over the last few years, Egypt has become an object lesson in how narrow interests, greed, and politics can quickly undo noble ideas and aspirations. The time since former President Hosni Mubarak’s departure has been a period of political cynicism, unprecedented violence, and economic dislocation. Yet for all the troubles bearing down on Egyptians, there are many who believe that the country’s trajectory is positive. This is not just elites grateful that the military intervention of July 2013 has restored the old—in their minds, natural—political order, but widespread optimism. Treat the polling with caution, but they demonstrate an overwhelming amount of support for President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Friends in Cairo insist that “as much as 80 percent of the population” supports the new program and believe that Egypt’s new leader has set the country on a proper course. If that is the case, then why do Egyptians seem so furious? Among the most angry is that group of people invariably described in Western accounts as “secular, liberal, and politically active.” There is no doubt that there are those who seem to benefit in some way (financial? political?) from their ostentatious anger while others have become deranged in their fury. For example, Tarek Heggy—a self-styled intellectual who once sought speaking engagements at Washington think tanks, universities, libraries, and other places that helped cultivate his image as a man of letters—recently wrote: “They [Americans] are ruthless and brutal criminals that [sic] deserve a 9th September, 2001 [sic] EVERY SINGLE DAY [caps original].” Heggy is, of course, one end of an extreme and few people ever took him seriously to begin with. There are also Egyptians who are anti-Muslim Brotherhood and anti-coup. Still, in between those people and Heggy, there is a significant number of Egyptians who were eloquent and tenacious advocates for progressive political change during the Mubarak era, but have now become among the most ardent defenders of the July 3 coup, supporters of the new old order under President Sisi, and enthusiasts for dismantling the Muslim Brotherhood, official excesses and all. How did this happen? Let’s acknowledge that Western analysts—including this one—have been less interested in understanding why people might be anti-Mubarak but pro-Sisi than in dismissing them as faux liberals. We have all come to believe in the alleged axiom of Egyptian politics: Faced with a choice between democratically elected Islamists and the authoritarianism of the military, the liberals will choose the officers, revealing themselves to be not so liberal after all. That seems self-evident, but liberal supporters of the post-July 2013 political process argue that the coup and their support for it were actually quintessentially liberal. To them, the military’s intervention precluded Egypt’s slide into a new authoritarianism of a particular religious bent from which there could be no hope for the survival of liberalism. These folks also make the case that their (mostly Western) critics mistakenly fuse liberal principles and democracy, failing to recognize that democracy can bring about both its own demise as well as that of liberalism. Moreover, the first concern of many of those Egyptian intellectuals who opposed Mubarak but support Sisi is preserving and advancing liberal ideals, which is more important—for now—than the ballot box. It’s an interesting and informed argument, steeped as it is in John Locke. Yet the argument seems like a leap of faith. It is hard to imagine that as Egypt’s authorities go about re-engineering the political institutions of the state to ensure that something like the January 25 uprising never happens again that they are simultaneously creating an environment where liberalism can not only be sustained, but also thrive. The “coup was actually liberal” line of reasoning is an intellectualization of something else I have heard from numerous contacts. Some months ago, I was Skyping with an Egyptian friend when we stumbled into a discussion of the contradictions of the pro-Sisi liberals. I asked her how one could be an eloquent defender of human rights for herself and others like her, but not for those who happen to have a different view of the world. In an honest, but also enigmatic moment, she declared, “Steven, you have no idea what the year under Morsi did to us. It affected us deeply.” I pressed her, but she could not fully articulate what she meant. Of course she was furious over Morsi’s arrogance, authoritarianism, and incompetence as well as the post-coup violence, which she blamed squarely on the Brotherhood. All of this was perfectly understandable, but there was clearly more going on inside her head that she was not ready to explain. During the summer of 2013, Egyptians argued that the conflict going on within their society was over Egypt’s identity. Liberals and others claim that in supporting the coup they were protecting Egypt’s polyglot, tolerant, outward looking, and cosmopolitan culture (it does not matter that these things are not necessarily true, just that the people believe they were defending these alleged attributes). What seems lost in all the fury directed at the Brotherhood at the time and ever since is the very fact that the Brothers were crucial actors in forging Egypt’s identity over the better part of the last century. The Brothers were not the only influential voices in Egypt, of course. Liberals, nationalists, Copts, and Nasserists shaped Egypt, but there was also an undoubtedly important role for the Brothers. They were critical in framing the way in which many Egyptians thought about everything from religion, culture, and education to the way Egypt related to the region and the world. When Mubarak fell, the Brothers offered a vision of society that, if the parliamentary elections of 2011 and 2012 are any indication, resonated deeply with many Egyptians. This is not to excuse the authoritarianism of the Brotherhood and Morsi’s disastrous year in office, but whether pro-Sisi liberals like it or even know it, the Brotherhood has had a profound impact on the way many Egyptians interpret their reality. It may very well be that people are rejecting what the Brothers have been offering them in the last 86 years, but no one should deny the significance of the Brotherhood in forging Egyptian identity in the twentieth century. The way in which the regime and its supporters have essentially declared that the Brothers are not authentically Egyptian is a politically motivated misconception and misinterpretation of modern Egypt. Yet what remains to be explained is how a group of people who loathed Mubarak and hated Morsi have come to revere Sisi whose record demonstrates as little respect for democracy and liberalism as his predecessors. I remain respectfully stumped.

An old one from Eric Rouleau, who reflects on his experiences as an Egyptian-Jewish journalist. Omar el-Jaffal examines the phenomenon of militias in Iraq and its implications on the Iraqi state. Atiaf Alwazir summarizes reactions to the recent takeover of the Yemeni capital Sanaa by Houthi fighters.

Every year at the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting there seems to be one world leader who garners all the attention. Last year’s UNGA “It Guy” was Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani. In 2012, the King of the Prom was Mohammed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected leader and a Muslim Brother. The year before that everyone wanted to hear from then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. This year all the Turtle Bay buzz is building around the man who is Erdogan’s bête noire and Morsi’s jailer, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Even though he is not getting a coveted “bilateral” with President Obama, Sisi is breakfasting with Henry Kissinger, James Baker, and Madeleine Albright, breaking bread with New York’s titans of business over lunch, and presiding at a small meeting of opinion leaders in advance of his speech before fellow heads of state on Thursday, September 25. The Egyptian president’s message is a simple one: “Egypt is back, I am in charge, we have an economic plan, it is safe to invest, I am actually on the right side of history, and Egypt is stable.” Don’t believe it. Methinks Sisi doth protest too much. For all of the persistently positive messages coming from official circles in Cairo, there is nevertheless a certain skittish and vulnerable quality to them. It is true, world leaders routinely come to the UNGA with sparingly little of interest to say and instead opt for laudatory statements about their country and its contributions to civilization. This is why—with perhaps the exceptions of the late Hugo Chavez’s antics and Mahmoud Ahmedinejad’s rants—the official proceedings at the UN are generally snoozers. Why should Sisi’s speech be any different? No one expects him to show up in New York and say, “I’ve made a hash of things, Egypt is in bad shape, folks.” Yet the optimistic messaging has been going on for months and in a particular way that indicates Egyptians need convincing of what they themselves are saying. Taken together, the relentless “ICYMI” emails from the Egyptian embassy alerting everyone and anyone about some nugget of ostensibly great news about Egypt, the mindless declarations of officialdom about “protecting the revolution,” the way the country’s elites have become adept at disregarding Egypt’s actual circumstances in favor of what can only be described as happy talk, and the ferocious response to anyone who challenges this narrative suggests a vulnerability and contradiction to the political project underway in Egypt during the last year. Egyptians and others who use the term “coup d’état” are at risk of being labeled supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and terrorism. President Sisi, his advisors, and supporters—of which there are many—prefer the much sunnier, if somewhat Orwellian “revolution fulfilling the will of the people” to describe the military intervention on July 3, 2013. There is a saying in American politics that if you tell a lie often enough it becomes the truth. The belief that the Affordable Care Act includes “death panels” is the paradigmatic case of this phenomenon. Yet in order for this kind of tactic to work, it seems that you need enough people who are pre-disposed to believe it. How many people believe that Tibet is and always was an integral part of China? Not enough because the Chinese government has to constantly say it. If ever there was a clear indication that Algeria would never be a départment (or départments) of France, it was the French government’s declarations in the mid-1950s that Algeria was an integral part of France. In the same way, Sisi doth protest too much about Egypt’s great progress, though it may not matter very much given his sky high approval ratings in at least one recent poll. Let’s review the current situation in Egypt, anyway: Official unemployment remains a problem hovering between 13.4 and 12.3 percent so far in 2014, but everyone knows that the Egyptians lie about unemployment statistics and always have. Inflation is 11.5 percent, public debt is 92.2 percent of GDP, foreign reserves are a meager $16.8 billion, and foreign direct investment clocked in at an anemic $4.4 billion during the first nine months of the year. Total tourism revenue for the first half of 2014 was only $3 billion, which is down from the same period in 2013, when Egypt was convulsed with anti-Morsi protests and a significant deterioration of security. Speaking of security, 500 policemen and soldiers have perished in the fight against terrorists since July 2013 and at least 1,000 civilians have died in that time in confrontations with the security forces. Many more have been injured. By its own estimates, the government of Egypt indicates that it holds 16,000 political prisoners that include Muslim Brothers, other opponents of Sisi, and eleven journalists. This is not a pretty picture. In fairness, Sisi has spoken to Egyptians about collective sacrifice and lamented a lost generation, but overall the message to Egyptians and the world is: “It’s all good.” This may serve the president’s current political needs and warm the hearts of at least some of the people Sisi will meet in New York City this week, but it could be the source of significant political difficulties for him. You can only blame the Muslim Brotherhood and terrorists for so long. As long as Sisi persists in telling Egyptians that 1) things are getting better and 2) their situation is improving specifically because of the way he is going about things, the lives of Egyptians better get better. If they do not, Sisi’s support is likely to deteriorate. Opponents will find ways to highlight the difference between what he is telling Egyptians and how they are actually experiencing the world. At a basic level, this gap between principles and reality is why Hosni Mubarak fell, Anwar Sadat confronted a revolt from all political quarters before his assassination in October 1981, and Gamal Abdel Nasser faced insurrection in early 1968. Sisi no doubt feels more confident in his place than at any other time since the July 2013 coup. There are currently no obvious challengers to him. He has the support of the military and the General Intelligence Service. The Ministry of Interior seems to have fallen into line. He will not challenge the judiciary, which was instrumental in undermining Morsi. If, in fact, Sisi can rest easy that the state is his and he has popular support, he must now figure out how to maintain control of the population through something other than force of personality and sheer force. Happy talk will only get him so far.

Lorenzo Franceschi-Bicchierai reports on the mysteries surrounding Egypt’s new surveillance system. Rozh Ahmad interviews a former member of ISIS. Thalia Beaty evaluates the efforts of the United Nations to build peace in Libya.