Human Rights

Censorship and Freedom of Expression

  • China
    In Fighting "Mutant Chicken," is KFC Helping Build the Case For Censorship in China?
    Lincoln Davidson is a research associate for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. You can follow him on Twitter @dvdsndvdsn.  As Chinese authorities take aim, yet again, at online rumors, a defamation lawsuit brought by KFC is making headlines in China. While the case appears to be pretty clear-cut, by bringing its suit, KFC is inadvertently supporting the CCP’s efforts to quash rumors and limit free speech online. On June 1, KFC initiated a lawsuit against ten accounts on WeChat, a Chinese mobile app similar to WhatsApp. According to the president of KFC China, the accounts claim that KFC had biologically engineered mutant chickens with eight legs and six wings. KFC is suing the account owners for combined damages of 3.5 million RMB (about $560,000 USD), although the court is unlikely to fully compensate KFC if it rules in its favor. KFC’s lawsuit is only the latest in a series of cases brought by Chinese food producers for defamation online. Some of the cases have even been brought against companies that are operating as literal rumor mills, posting advertisements for products or denigrating competitors’ products on WeChat accounts for a few hundred yuan (about $50 USD). Discussing the KFC case, Zhang Limei, a commentator in Legal Daily, highlights the damage that rumors can do to public trust in businesses. When a rumor’s reach is particularly widespread, she argues it can lead to “social panic.” Because rumors are “easy to make, but hard to break,” she notes the public needs to be taught to think twice about online information. However, as rumors have a tendency to evolve more quickly than any education effort, Zhang asserts that it is in the public interest for the government to limit online expression. Providers of Internet platforms have long played an important role in the CCP’s approach to online discourse shaping. Much of the minutiae of censorship has been delegated to platform operators, who must employ censors tasked with reviewing online posts and deleting objectionable content. When authorities feel they aren’t doing a good enough job, operators are forced to adopt new measures to catch more posts. Zhang expects WeChat to play a similar role in managing online rumors, but finds that the app’s creator, Tencent, is swamped with too many reports to process. While Tencent’s system automatically intercepts around two million rumors daily, some inevitably slip through. (WeChat has about 550 million active users, nearly twice that of Twitter.) Confronting such a large volume of rumors requires, in Zhang’s view, that some of the responsibility for censorship must be further decentralized: companies who are the target of rumors should use the legal system to hit back at rumormongers: “If there were more firms that were willing, like KFC, to step out and take up the weapon of the law to defend their rights […] they would certainly be able to restrain malicious, and often paid, manipulation of rumors. Regardless of the case’s decision, KFC’s lawsuit against the ‘six-winged mutant chicken’ WeChat accounts should become an example for companies and the public of how to vigorously defend oneself from online rumors. […] The best way to refute rumors is to rely on the law and allow the courts to lay out a decision and discipline the rumormongers.” In other words, companies and individuals must be active in reporting online rumors. This is a point that China’s Internet regulators have stressed over the last few months.  In a recent speech, Lu Wei, the head of the Cyberspace Administration of China, argued that a central cybersecurity challenge for China is creating a “civilized” Internet that is “purified” of “harmful information.” To achieve this, he emphasized getting all of Chinese society involved in being “good netizens” (including, presumably, private enterprises). While KFC needs to protect its product and reputation, its approach to the WeChat rumors risks reinforcing the government’s narrative of the need for censorship in at least two ways. First, the company has characterized Chinese citizens as ignorant and easily misled, implicitly endorsing the Chinese government’s tightening of online discourse. In a speech in May, President of KFC China Qu Cuirong said that because consumers’ knowledge can’t increase at the same rate as rumors are produced, “if things keep going this way, our consumers will become confused. They won’t know what they can eat.” Second, and perhaps more troubling, the greater use of the “weapon of the law” by businesses to stamp out online “rumors” could easily lead individuals to avoid making public statements of any kind online. It’s safe to say that an overly-broad definition of "harmful rumors" would have a dampening effect on discourse on WeChat because that’s exactly what happened on Weibo after the Chinese government created legislation making it possible to, in the words of one blogger, "hate-retweet someone into jail." Companies have good reason to be concerned about rumors and the impact they can have on business. But as the Chinese media unleashes a barrage on online rumors, KFC and others who might follow it risk tacitly promoting the CCP’s vision for the Internet—a vision that is anything but free and open.
  • Cybersecurity
    Sharone Tobias: Internet and Press Freedom in Taiwan
    Sharone Tobias is a Research Associate for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Earlier this month, Taiwanese Internet advocacy groups succeeded in shutting down an anti-piracy bill similar to the U.S. Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA). The bill was an amendment to the Taiwan Intellectual Property Office’s Copyright Act, and would have forced Internet service providers to block a list of domains or IP addresses connected to websites and services that enable illegal file sharing. The plan would have allowed Taiwan’s bureaucracies to create a blacklist for websites and peer-to-peer sharing tools like BitTorrent, rather than blocking individual videos and files as the law currently allows. The blacklist would also have been kept confidential from the public. Most of the pressure for this legislation came from the recording industry, but the U.S. government also expressed concern over piracy in the U.S. Trade Representative’s most recent National Estimate Trade Report. The plan was abandoned after several large Internet companies, including Wikimedia Taiwan and Mozilla Taiwan, threatened to stage a day-long blackout similar to the Internet blackouts that took place in the United States against SOPA last year. Wang Mei-hua, head of the Intellectual Property Office, declared that the government had no desire to set restrictions on freedom of speech or access to information. Nevertheless, many activists claimed that the law could create a China-like Great Wall. The activists have reignited passion for freedom of speech on the island, especially as ties with the mainland have steadily strengthened during President Ma Ying-jeou’s administration. Taiwanese youth have often been accused of political apathy, viewed as taking for granted the democracy they did not have to fight for. But recent the anti-piracy bill comes at a time when students and other young people have been protesting amidst fear for the future of free information and media in Taiwan. As James Stand wrote on the blog, many Taiwanese media outlets have been bought by Chinese companies or very pro-China entrepreneurs. For example, pro-China businessman Tsai Eng-Meng, owner of Want Want Media and China Times Group, attempted to buy Next Media Consortium in a deal that would have allowed him to own 50 per cent of Taiwan’s independent media. Free media advocates in Taiwan claim that Tsai’s support for unification with China and other issues put him and his media companies deeply at odds with the majority of Taiwanese opinion. In May 2012, an investigation by the Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council found "clear evidence" that five-day-long extensive coverage of a Chinese official’s visit to Taiwan was in fact paid advertising. The $586 million deal ultimately fell through after tens of thousands marched in Taipei, and now the Taiwanese Legislative Yuan is considering anti-media monopoly legislation. There are similar to allegations in Hong Kong, where pro-China businessmen have bought many of the local media companies and allegedly softened the tone towards the mainland. It was not so long ago that Taiwanese media was just as heavily censored as China’s media is today. Not until democratization in 1987 did Taiwan began to have a free press. Since then, Taiwan has developed a robust, if raucous, media and a proud culture of dissent; Freedom House rates it as one of the freest in Asia, with freedom of speech protected in the constitution. Most of the activists against anti-piracy legislation and media conglomeration are young Taiwanese who came of age when Taiwan was already a democracy. Though Internet and press freedom is still a concern, these citizens have shown their ability to organize freely and effectively to stop legislation they disagree with.
  • Human Rights
    Freedom in the World 2013
    Arch Puddington presents Freedom House’s "Freedom in the World 2013" report, followed by a discussion between Tamara Wittes and Larry Diamond. They discuss the text of the report, as well as the differences between democratic indicators within nations, regional trends, and the normative importance of the "Arab Spring."
  • Political Movements
    Democracy in Retreat
    A thought-provoking study of democratization proposing that the spate of retreating democracies, one after another over the past two decades, is not just a series of exceptions.
  • Middle East and North Africa
    Free Speech and Muslim Unrest
    The debate over freedom of expression in new Arab and Muslim democracies should be seen as part of a larger historical transition, says Duke University’s Timur Kuran.
  • Thailand
    Google, Thailand, and the 2012 Transparency Report
    As reported on in Siam Voices this week, Google has released its 2012 Transparency Report, which chronicles requests that Google receives, mostly from governments, to block material online. As Lisa Gardner notes on Siam Voices, “Google bucked international trends in 2011 by blocking access to hundreds of web pages at the behest of the Thai Ministry of Information, Communication, and Technology [MICT].” One part of the report shows that Google has restricted or partly restricted at least 149 YouTube videos that the Thai government claimed was insulting to the monarchy. Unlike in many other countries, where Google supposedly makes its decisions to take down material after a local court issues an order (not that courts are infallible, but at least there is a court order), in Thailand it took down material even without court orders being issued, simply at the request of the authorities. Overall, around the world last year, Google complied with about 54 percent of requests by governments and copyright holders to take down material.  But in Thailand, Gardner reports, Google “chose to comply with each request made by Thai government censors” —in essence, 100 percent of their requests, a chilling number. Gardner identifies a number of clear, pressing problems with Google’s approach, and these problems are only going to be magnified as Thailand’s political conflict, already at the boiling point, gets hotter, or if a coup is launched by the military, not an impossible proposition now. For one, although Google claims that it only removes material if the requests to remove are relatively narrow, in Thailand the application of the lèse-majesté law and the Computer Crimes Act has become broader and broader each year, and now is so broadly defined —some would say undefined— as to be almost impossible to understand. (Scholar David Streckfuss, the authority on lèse-majesté, has shown how over the past decade Lèse-Majesté cases have skyrocketed, reaching a number rarely seen in any monarchy in history, other than in late nineteenth century Germany.) Since the Thai courts are not helping to clarify the law —they basically almost never acquit anyone for Lèse-Majesté or violating the Computer Crimes Act, and reduce sentences only when there is major international pressure, as in the case of the editor of Prachatai—how will Google, or any other company, know which Thai requests are narrow enough to act on? Or whether any requests are actually narrow enough to act on? And since the law is increasingly used as a political weapon —by royalists against liberals as well as against pro-Thaksin red shirts, and in reverse by some pro-Thaksin allies against royalists— how can Google be sure that it is not essentially serving as part of either side’s arsenal, or that, if it is going to take down material, it is balancing both sides in the Thai political struggle? In many countries, such as China, Google has stood out in making a strong case for free expression online, and using its corporate power to support that approach. And it does have employees in Thailand, as it did in China, which it needs to be protective of. Still, Google’s actions are very concerning. The company has not yet explained what material MICT tried to block, according to Gardner’s report. More importantly, Google has not shown any clear position on how it determines which online material in Thailand, where the lèse-majesté and Computer Crimes Act have become two of the biggest weapons against free expression, it considers worthy of being taken down. The company should enunciate a clear position, helping Thai (and foreign) users understand its rationale, and drawing a firmer line in the sand for MICT.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    South Africa: Zuma Painting Opens Freedom of Expression Debate
    The New York Times reports that an exhibition at a Johannesburg art gallery is pushing contemporary hot buttons. On exhibit is a large painting of a figure resembling President Zuma with his genitals exposed. The governing African National Congress (ANC) is suing to have the painting removed. The gallery and its supporters from civil society are claiming the right to free speech, which the constitution guarantees. There are several special South African dimensions to this episode. The ANC is using the courts. It is seeking the removal of the painting through the rule of law, rather than by other means. (The painting has subsequently been defaced, and, as a result, the gallery temporarily closed, but I have seen no evidence of ANC complicity in the vandalism.) Zuma is black, while the artist and those associated with the art gallery appear to me to be white. Hence, for Zuma’s supporters there is probably a racial dimension. One of his supporters claims publicly that the painting feeds white prejudice that blacks are “over-sexualized.” Zuma is likely to face a challenge to his ANC leadership at the party convention in December. He is a polygamist with four wives, at least twenty children, and was acquitted in a notorious rape trial where he argued that the unprotected sex – with an HIV-positive woman--was consensual. Hence, the painting hardly helps his image. In addition, the painting is almost certainly deeply offensive to the evangelical and Pentecostal communities, which are growing fast among black South Africans. Zuma of late has been reaching out to both communities as he looks toward the December party conference. So, it is about art that is offensive to many South Africans. It is also about Jacob Zuma. But, the context for its resolution remains the rule of law.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Nigeria: Civil Servants Unpaid, Journalists Threatened, Boko Haram and MEND Bombing
    Over the past week there have been curious Nigerian developments. The government has been unable to pay its civil servants and is now a month in arrears. The explanation has been that the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation failed to deposit the government’s oil revenue in the account from which civil servants are paid. Then, this week, the government closed down the press office at Lagos’s Murtala Muhammed Airport. This facility has operated under military and civilian governments and is a generation old. In addition, journalists were reportedly threatened in the Middle Belt. South, in the Niger Delta, ‘Jomo Gbomo,’ the mythic spokesman for the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta has blasted President Goodluck Jonathan in personal terms, threatened renewed mayhem, and in fact carried out an act of oil sabotage. Boko Haram, the radical Northern Islamic movement, continues its almost daily depredations, and it attacked a military base in Kaduna. So many unanswered questions. With respect to civil service pay, governments do not “run out of money.” They can always borrow. Failure to pay civil servants can be risky and governments usually seek to avoid non-payment. And why did NNPC fail to make the requisite deposits? What will the civil servants do? Like everybody else they are coping with price increases associated with the roll back of the fuel subsidy. Why the squeeze on the press? Freedom House evaluates the Nigerian press as “partially free.” But overt government pressure on the media has been rare. And why is ‘Jomo Gbomo’ resurfacing now? We should resist the temptation to see these episodes as somehow interrelated. But, together, they are bound to stress the Jonathan government. Asch Harwood contributed to this post.
  • China
    Asia Behind the Headlines
    An employee hoses a China Railway High-speed Harmony bullet train at the high-speed train maintenance base in Wuhan, Hubei province on October 19, 2011. (Stringer Shanghai / Courtesy Reuters) Jared Mondschein looks at the key stories in Asia behind the headlines.Clamping down in cyberspace: With more than 485 million Internet users and 300 million microbloggers, the Internet in China allows “netizens” to voice their opinions on everything from Wukan to Beijing’s air quality to North Korea. Beijing, however, has never been quite comfortable with such an open marketplace of ideas. Now, in an attempt to “purge online rumors and enhance social credibility,” Guangzhou and Shenzhen have joined Beijing in requiring new users of China’s microblogs to register with their real names. China’s netizens unsurprisingly have not taken well to the clampdown, as one microblogger wrote: “There will only ever be a single voice speaking now.” - Who’s the fairest of them all? There’s no doubt that the center of economic gravity in Asia is China, while the United States holds the security card for the region. But whom do regular citizens across the region prefer? According to a Gallup poll of citizens in Cambodia, Australia, South Korea, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, for the most part there is a higher approval for U.S. leadership: The median approval rate for U.S. leadership stands at 44 percent while China’s is at 30 percent. Respondents ranked U.S. leadership more highly than Chinese in eight out of the nine countries polled. - High-speed rail slows down: This February will mark one year since Railways Minister Liu Zhijun was fired for “severe violations of discipline.” His dismissal was only the beginning of a terrible year for the former jewel in China’s infrastructure crown. Crippling power failures and a deadly crash in July angered the people and raised questions about the potential for high speed rail to be exported abroad. Beijing recently announced that railway investment would be cut by 15 percent in 2012, suggesting that Beijing may be taking a step back from its all-out push on high-speed rail. Hopefully it will produce a new focus on quality over quantity. - Foreigners’ tax in China: According to the Heritage Foundation’s index, China ranks 135th in the world in economic freedoms, behind Tajikistan and Niger, among others. The government’s new social security tax just for foreigners (instituted in October of this year) will certainly not contribute to a higher ranking. Many see the tax primarily as a scheme to force foreign companies to hire more Chinese workers, although Beijing is pitching it as a ticket to the opportunity for foreigners to retire in China. Foreigners don’t appear to find either reason compelling; in Beijing alone the government has only succeeded so far in getting 2,000 of the approximately 30,000 foreigners in the city to pay.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Protection of State Information Bill a Blemish on South Africa
    Signs are seen in the air as demonstrators protest against the passing of the Protection of Information Bill outside Parliament in Cape Town November 22, 2011. (Stringer/Courtesy Reuters) South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC), which dominates parliament, appears to be moving inexorably toward passing a government-sponsored bill that would criminalize the possession and disclosure of classified information. Popularly called the "secrecy bill," under its provisions, should a journalist uncover classified information about government corruption and fail to hand it over to the police, he or she could be jailed. The bill is opposed by civil liberties watchdogs. In an eloquent November 29 New York Times op-ed, Nic Dawes, Judith February, and Zackie Achmat argue that the proposed legislation violates the spirit of South Africa’s constitution, which contains among the most widespread protections for individual liberties in the world. Newspapers gleefully report regularly on the foibles and professional and personal follies of the country’s political leaders. The press regularly unearths kickbacks and other corrupt practices. Though there is a vibrant parliamentary opposition, the Democratic Alliance, the press has become a powerful force for the accountability of office holders to the public. Stung, some in the ANC are also urging that a parliamentary commission be established to "regulate" the print media in conjunction with the secrecy bill. But, as is so often the case in South Africa, there is also a racial dimension: much of the press is white-owned while the ANC is predominately black. And post-apartheid efforts to address poverty and racial economic inequality are largely stalled. For some radicals, South Africa’s free, largely white-owned press is a force for the unacceptable status quo. The secrecy bill is still subject to amendment as part of the parliamentary process, and the keepers of the "liberation flame" are doing their best to modify it. In particular, the authors of the Times’ op-ed are seeking provisions that would allow the publication of state secrets in "the public interest," that is, cases of corruption, official lies or threats to public safety. I wish them success.
  • Ethiopia
    Wikileaks Cable Forces Ethiopian Journalist to Flee
    Ethiopia's Prime Minister Meles Zenawi addresses a news conference at his office in the capital Addis Ababa, May 26, 2010. (Thomas Mukoya/ Courtesy Reuters) The Committee to Protect Journalists said on September 14 that an Ethiopian journalist identified by name in a U.S. diplomatic cable leaked by Wikileaks has fled the country after police interrogation. A consequence is that the highly distinguished reporter Argaw Ashine can no longer write about Ethiopia from within, a situation that likely suits Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s government just fine. Indeed, his departure seems to me to be one more victory for repression, this time abetted by Wikileaks. CPJ Executive Director Joel Simon commented, "Wikileaks must take responsibility for its actions and do whatever it can to reduce the risk to journalists named in its cables. It must put in place systems to ensure that such disclosures do not reoccur." Simon’s brief extends only to journalists. But what he says is true for other individuals named in the leaked cables, including government officials, opposition figures, religious leaders, and a host of others from business and civil society. Wikileaks particularly endangers just those persons who are struggling for human rights, democracy, and transparency in government. I have said before that Wikileaks’ release of classified U.S. diplomatic documents sets back U.S. diplomacy. International partnerships require free communication and trust. Wikileaks undermines both. Beyond those concerns, the CPJ statement usefully highlights the damage Wikileaks can do to specific individuals, including putting their lives at risk. Diplomatic correspondence is classified for good reason. Among other things, it protects sources -- but it also protects the reputations of individuals discussed. After all, what an individual says during an encounter with a diplomat may -- or may not -- be true. And there may be another side to the story. A specific diplomatic report should be used only in a broad context -- and such is nearly always lacking in sensational press reporting that highlights a specific diplomatic communication. A diplomatic report may contribute to the formulation of U.S. policy; in and of itself, however, it may not be a statement of a U.S. government position. Nor are its conclusions necessarily accepted by a Washington administration. Classified diplomatic correspondence remains classified even if reaches the public domain through theft -- which is what Wikileaks is. Hence, U.S. diplomats as a rule will not participate in a debate about classified correspondence.  
  • China
    China Isn’t Egypt
    A man (R) is arrested by police and taken to a police vehicle after calls for a "Jasmine Revolution" protest, organized through the internet, in front of the Peace Cinema in downtown Shanghai February 27, 2011. (Carlos Barria/Courtesy Reuters). So many articles about whether and how China is “like” the Middle East ... But I really wish we wouldn’t compare China and, say, Egypt. They are very different indeed: - Egypt has had organized opposition in the form of the Muslim Brotherhood and other political and social groups.  China does not. - At least some Arab countries have a mobilized civil society in the form of mosques, charities, Islamic universities, social groups, and so on. China, in the main, does not. - In many Arab countries, mid- and low-ranked military and security elites may well support the opposition.  This is not the case in China. Indeed, where the military in Egypt and Tunisia ultimately turned on their presidents, the People’s Liberation Army will not challenge the Chinese Communist Party under present circumstances, nor will the paramilitary and police forces on which Beijing would largely rely. - Meanwhile, China has lifted living standards through decades of strong economic performance. Most of the relevant Arab governments have not. It’s not that China isn’t brittle.  It’s just that, over the longer term, prospective sources of instability would, to my mind, reflect distinctly Chinese circumstances only. China is brittle.  It is a country ruled by a party brought to power, in large part, by peasants but cannot suppress rural protest.  It is a country with one umbrella labor federation but faces sporadic and unpredictable strikes.  Even China’s elite—white collar bankers, who have been among the biggest winners from the country’s growth explosion—have been arrested.  Some, for example, were arrested last year for agitating in central Beijing. But China’s leaders have been effective at blunting the political effects of this discontent through a combination of carrots and sticks.  They have co-opted some demands of the discontented, not least by hiking wages and funding social housing.  Separately, they have built paramilitary and police capabilities and have been prepared, since the 1989 Tiananmen events, to react (or overreact) to the slightest twitch that smells of an underlying challenge to the regime. The challenges to China’s political and social stability are real but of a decidedly longer term nature.  And the signposts of crisis would probably involve a cascade of short, sharp challenges to the regime—and a fracturing of the governing elite—not, for example, a handful of anonymous individuals trying to organize a “Jasmine” gathering on the corner of Wangfujing Street in Beijing. China’s government, of course, aims to forestall all this.  It will try to address these challenges through many of the policies at the heart of the 12th Five Year Plan.   It aims, for example, to shift income from producers to households, to adopt new social welfare schemes, to hike wages, and to root out the most embarrassingly egregious examples of state and Party corruption. The state is very unlikely to succeed in all of these efforts.  But while its failures will raise the risks to China, those risks cannot be measured on an "Egyptian" timetable. Instead, I wish we would connect events in the Middle East to China in more proximate ways.   For one, inflationary concern in China’s governing elite will surely be aggravated by developments in international energy markets.   For another, the threat to Chinese nationals in Libya has sparked foreign policy debates in Beijing about how to protect Chinese workers abroad. This reinforces a debate that gathered steam after the murder of Chinese engineers in Pakistan in 2006. And, in time, China’s heightened global commercial profile could (gradually) suck Beijing into the domestic politics of third countries. China will increasingly debate whether and how to develop and deploy forces abroad for non-combatant evacuation operations. 
 But domestically, the most important near term effect may simply be to boost the role of the security services and, especially, to reinforce Beijing’s abiding suspicion of social media and the Internet. The regime will likely become even more assertive on Internet policy, inching China closer to a walled-off web.
  • China
    U.S. Internet Providers and the ’Great Firewall of China’
    U.S. Internet companies have long been accused of helping Beijing censor content. But aided by a U.S. government push for Internet freedom, some private-sector-led groups are working toward ensuring greater respect for privacy and free speech.
  • Thailand
    More Reading the Wikileaks Cables: Thailand’s Monarchy
    A woman holds a portrait of Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej on his 83rd birthday in Bangkok. (Chaiwat Subprasom/Courtesy Reuters) The latest bunch of released Wikileaks cables, online at the Guardian’s archive, offer fascinating insight into Thailand’s opaque monarchy, and should put to rest, once and for all, any idea that the royals stay out of politics except for occasions of national emergency, such as the bloodshed of 1992. Theoretically, Thailand’s monarchy is “above politics” – the royal institution does not involve itself in political life, and is theoretically a constitutional monarch, like Queen Elizabeth II. Of course, Thais and experienced Thailand watchers know this is not the case; Thailand scholar Duncan McCargo, at Leeds University, coined the term “network monarchy” to explain how the palace influences politics through a network of its supporters and loyalists. But the recent batch of leaked cables show in much more detail how directly the monarchy intervenes in Thai politics, and how much more regularly it intervenes than some Thai observers thought. The royals are hardly saving their powder for occasional instances of dire national emergency. In one cable, a former Thai prime minister, Samak Sundaravej, tells US officials that Thailand’s Queen Sirikit pushed for the 2006 coup against former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and also backed anti-government protests by groups that had demonstrated against Thaksin. In another, senior Thai officials tell American diplomats that Thailand’s king “explicitly told [army commander] Anupong Paojinda not to launch a coup” in 2008, two years after the previous putsch. Though these cables will be blocked from servers in Thailand, and Bangkok-based newspapers and bloggers will refer to them without referencing the royal family, for fear of being charged with lèse majesté, undoubtedly many Thais will find out about them, just as they have found out about most other stories about the royal family. Of course, Thailand’s government will officially ignore them. But eventually, it will have to address their substance. In yet another cable, senior Thai officials express dismay to the US ambassador at the eventual transition to Thailand’s crown prince, whom they hint is flighty, womanizing, and unsuited to rule. When he finally takes over the palace, if Thailand has not crafted a better way to contain the monarchy’s influence, there could be major trouble.
  • North Korea
    Burma’s Ties to North Korea
    North Korea's Foreign Minister Pak Ui-chun visits the Shwedagon Pagoda in Yangon. (Soe Zeya Tun/Courtesy Reuters) One of the most interesting elements of the Wikileaks’ cables has been the large number of reports – thus far- from the U.S. embassy in Rangoon. Some media outlets have focused on these cables’ characterization of China’s position on Burma, which actually is less supportive and tolerant of the junta that it often seems. But several other cables detail allegations of North Korean workers building an underground facility at a Burmese military installation, of North Koreans allegedly building a missile program in Burma, and of the Burmese working on what they characterize as “peaceful nuclear cooperation” with Pyongyang. (Perhaps as “peaceful” as Iran’s program!) Another cable detailed allegations that 112 tons of “mixed ore” including uranium may have been shipped to Burma in early 2007. Of course, when dealing with both Burma and North Korea, military deals are so opaque that one must take any report skeptically and wonder about the reliability of any information. Still, what is interesting is that, over the past five years, the idea of Pyongyang helping Burma build a serious nuclear/missile program has gone from being pooh-poohed by most American analysts and officials as ridiculous to now, apparently, being taken seriously as a possibility. In fact, only two years ago several American officials assured me that the chance of a Burmese nuclear program was ridiculous, the idea ginned up by Burmese exiles to keep the world’s focus on the country. Is that view seriously changing? Go to Wikileaks and search for cables originating from the embassy in Rangoon, and see for yourself.