COP29 Summit in Baku: What to Expect

Alice C. Hill is the David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energy and the environment at the Council on Foreign Relations. Priyanka Mahat is a CFR research associate for climate change policy.

Negotiators from across the globe will gather in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the twenty-ninth annual UN climate change conference on November 11. Their goal almost thirty years after the first Conference of the Parties (COP) in Berlin remains the same: increase international ambition to curb global warming below 1.5°C (2.7°F) pre-industrial levels to avoid catastrophic harm to the planet. Yet the world is perilously close to breaching that limit. At this year’s COP, countries will focus on pushing for more ambitious emissions reductions and identifying new sources of finance.

What’s at stake at this year’s summit?

COP29 takes place in the shadow of the upcoming deadline for nations to provide updated plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement by February 2025. These commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), lie at the heart of the Paris Agreement’s goal of curbing the rise in global temperatures. To date, these voluntary commitments have not set the world on course to contain heating to 1.5°C, much less 2°C. Current policies put the planet on track to experience approximately a 2.6-3.1°C rise by 2100, according to UN estimates. Yet, with every tenth of a degree of warming comes much more extreme weather. Meanwhile, carbon dioxide and methane accumulation in the atmosphere is at the highest level ever recorded. The burning of fossil fuels by humans accounts for about 90 percent of these emissions. According to the chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the scientific group that advises the UN process, insufficient commitments paint a “bleak picture” for the future.

What can we expect from Azerbaijan as the host of COP29?

COP29 marks the midpoint of the “COP Presidencies Troika,” a collaborative effort between the United Arab Emirates (UAE, host to COP28) and Brazil (host to COP30 in 2025) aimed at accelerating progress toward the 1.5°C goal. Unlike COP28 in Dubai last year, which hosted a record hundred thousand attendees, COP29 will be smaller, with Baku expected to host around fifty thousand participants. This scaled-down attendance stems in part from Baku’s more limited hosting capacity and the relatively late confirmation of Azerbaijan as the host. Lower corporate and private sector representation is anticipated. U.S. congressional representation at COP29 is expected to be smaller this year as well. Conference organizers have announced that they will allocate more observer badges to nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) from the Global South to increase those countries’ representation. 

The selection of Azerbaijan as the host country has raised concerns about the credibility and integrity of the COP process. COP29 marks the third time a significant fossil fuel-producing country has hosted the conference, and the second time in two years. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has announced plans to increase gas production in part to satisfy European Union (EU) demands and referred to the country’s oil and gas reserves as “a gift from God.” Baku choosing Mukhtar Babayev, a prominent figure in Azerbaijan’s oil industry, as the conference’s chief negotiator has heightened concerns that conflicts of interest may undermine the COP process. The country’s restrictions on freedom of speech and civil society have also raised alarms. The fact that the initial organizing team for COP29 lacked female representatives led to high-level criticism early in the planning process. Azerbaijan responded by expanding the committee to include twelve women.

What’s on the agenda?

Azerbaijan has crafted several pledges to drive ambitious action. These include:

Reducing emissions and increasing green energy. The presidency has put forward a series of commitments for investing in renewable energy, such as a Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge, which aims to enhance energy infrastructure and storage capabilities worldwide, an ambitious Hydrogen Declaration, and a Declaration on Reducing Methane from Organic Waste. With the Green Digital Action Declaration, COP29 leadership seeks to reduce emissions in the information and communication sectors. The agenda, however, makes no direct mention of a transition from fossil fuels despite the hard-earned language finally achieved at last year’s COP that signaled the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. This omission has added to concerns about the potential for backsliding in Baku, especially given the country’s significant reliance on natural gas. 

Building climate resilience. The COP presidency has put forth a climate initiative for farmers and a declaration calling for integrated approaches to combating climate threats to water basins and ecosystems. Additionally, Baku aims to present the Initiative on Human Development for Climate Resilience, which focuses on education, skills, health, and well-being, and the COP29 Multisectoral Actions Pathways (MAP) Declaration that aims to enhance urban climate resilience.  

New climate finance targets. Nations are expected to replace the previous $100 billion annual commitment to developing countries from the 2009 Copenhagen Accord. The new target, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), will be under discussion at November’s COP and is intended to take effect from 2025 onwards. A 2022 report [PDF] by the Independent High-level Expert Group on Climate Finance found that developing countries need around $1 trillion per year by 2025, and $2.4 trillion by 2030 to meet their climate finance needs. 

Among the most contentious issues that remain are how much money developed nations will provide, and who should provide climate finance. The United States and other major economies want to expand the contributor base, but developing nations argue that this is outside the NCQG’s mandate. Other areas of conflict include the question of who should receive monies—all developing countries or just the most vulnerable—and what type, with developing countries seeking to avoid debt financing. A recent study determined that the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations are paying two times as much annually on external debt repayments as they receive financial help to address climate change. This financial strain hampers their ability to invest in crucial climate resilience and adaptation efforts, deepening their exposure to climate risks.

The focus on climate finance could affect the level of ambition reflected in NDC commitments due early next year, particularly for developing countries. Those nations are hesitant to commit to more ambitious targets without first securing clear financial support through the NCQG. While a joint initiative from Azerbaijan, Brazil, and the UAE seeks to acknowledge this link between finance and ambition, both the United States and the EU remain opposed to such explicit conditioning. Consequently, developing countries have expressed skepticism that their needs and challenges will be adequately addressed. 

How does the U.S. election factor into climate negotiations?

COP29 starts just six days after the U.S. presidential election on November 5, and the outcome of the vote will influence COP negotiations. A potential Kamala Harris administration is expected to prioritize climate action and international cooperation on climate. Conversely, another Donald Trump presidency will likely result in U.S. withdrawal (again) from the COP process and the Paris Agreement, as well as a significant dialing back of U.S. action to cut emissions and international climate commitments. Given that the United States is the world’s largest historical emitter and among the top current emitters of greenhouse gases, a turning away from climate action by a second Trump administration could undermine enthusiasm for greater global climate ambition.

The effectiveness of the international negotiations process itself is under scrutiny, often raising the question, “do COPs work?” Al Gore and John Kerry, two prominent U.S. climate policy figures, articulate common skepticisms toward the prevailing process. Gore insists that the process needs an overhaul to meet the pressing demands of the climate crisis. In contrast, Kerry acknowledges the value of COP but argues it needs reshaping to enhance its effectiveness and inclusivity. The outcomes of recent elections around the world will also play a significant role in determining whether leaders and their regimes are empowered to bring more ambition to climate action. A critical question remains: Will the pledges made by countries add up to what COP28’s president called the “North Star of 1.5°C?”

This work represents the views and opinions solely of the authors. The Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher, and takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.