Europe and Eurasia

United Kingdom

  • United States
    Obama and Brexit
    I’ve written before about the mistake the President made by intervening in the decision British citizens must make in June about leaving the EU. But in addition to questioning the wisdom, one might wonder about the impact. Answer: none, or a slight lift to the "Leave the EU" arguments the President meant to weaken. Here is John O’Sullivan in National Review:   The first opinion-poll results on President Obama’s intervention in the Brexit debate since he left London for Germany and the EU summit have now been published. They show two things of interest: a small movement toward the Leave campaign, and a clear majority of voters who disapproved of the president’s intervention.   Of four polls, all four shifted toward Leave, by between one and four percentage points. That still left Remain ahead in two polls, and Leave in the other two (but by smaller numbers, in or close to the margin of error). Probably the fairest interpretation is that Remain is slightly ahead but Leave is closing a small gap and that Obama helped to close it further. Disapproval of Obama’s intervention is far clearer, however. Majorities of 55 and 60 percent were critical. This popular response was expressed in a cartoon of Obama seated opposite the Queen at a Palace dining table, saying airily, “She’ll have the fish” — as the Queen winces and the butler staggers back in horror.   In other words, Mr. Obama hurt the cause he came to advance. This is not terribly surprising. First, it was not really his business to instruct Brits how to vote on this matter. Second, he went about it crudely, threatening that if Britain left the EU and then sought a free trade agreement with the United States, they would be put at the bottom of the queue. This is reminiscent of his intervention in the selection of Chicago as the city for the 2016 Summer Olympics: he flew to Copenhagen to address the International Olympic Committee, made a personal bid....and Chicago came in fourth. Whoever thinks these personal interventions are likely to work needs to think again.
  • Iran
    The British Royals and Israel--Again
    I’ve written before in this blog about the British royals and their refusal to visit Israel, the most recent time here. Now we learn that Prince Charles may visit Iran. The story in The Independent tells us that A Clarence House [the Prince’s residence] spokesman said: “The autumn tour is not confirmed.” But the newspaper source was quoted as saying: “The prince is very keen to visit Iran. He hopes he would be able to use his role as a diplomat to further encourage the relationship and dialogue between the two countries." Prince Charles is said to have a strong interest in Persian history.... Apparently the Prince lacks much interest in Biblical history, or at least enough to warrant visiting the lands where the Bible narrative took place. Four years ago the Iranian regime stormed and set fire to the British embassy. And of course Iran remains the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. But that does not deter the Prince from a royal visit. (He has visited Iran once before, after the Bam earthquake "in his capacity as president of the British Red Cross charity, and not as a royal figure," just as he once visited Israel briefly, for the Rabin funeral.) It is remarkable, to say no more, that the British royal family continues to refuse to visit Israel when even a vicious, aggressive, terror-supporting Middle Eastern dictatorship will get a visit. Here’s a suggestion. Why don’t the Saudis and Emiratis, who both have close relations with the UK and understand that Iran is a dangerous enemy, send a quiet message to Clarence House via the Foreign Office. The message should be short and sweet: the Prince ought to find that a visit to Iran is simply not convenient.  
  • Trade
    Cyber Week in Review: January 8, 2016
    Happy New Year! Here is a quick round-up of this week’s technology headlines and related stories you may have missed while you were binging on Netflix, eating turkey or Chinese food, and ringing in 2016. 1. The first publically-known cyberattack to take down a power grid? Ukraine’s energy ministry accused Russia perpetrating a cyberattack that caused a power outage, affecting several hundred households on December 23, 2015. If true, this is the first known instance of hackers disabling a power grid. Some press reports have attributed the attack to malware known as “BlackEnergy,” while others have pointed to a group of Russian hackers called “SandWorm.” However, as Robert Lee has pointed out, there’s not yet enough information about the attack to come to a conclusion. In the meantime, U.S. companies that rely on industrial control systems should review their defenses and keep their ears open for new information on the incident in Ukraine as it becomes available. 2. Chinese regulators suspect Microsoft of antitrust. Chinese regulators have reignited a probe into alleged monopoly practices by Microsoft first started in summer 2014 when officials raided the company’s Chinese offices, seizing documents and hard drives. The State Administration for Industry and Commerce says that “major questions” remain regarding the data seized in the 2014 raids. Microsoft’s China troubles should be a red flag for other foreign firms hoping to do business in China. Despite hosting leaders of Chinese and U.S. tech companies for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and launching a new partnership with a Chinese government-owned electronics firm in the last few months, Microsoft can’t seem to get a break. Nor is the environment in China for foreign tech companies likely to get better any time soon. Last month, the Chinese legislature passed a counter-terrorism law that authorizes the government to require telecoms to assistance in terrorism investigations, which includes handing over encryption keys. 3. The Netherlands and the United Kingdom disagree over encryption. The Dutch government issued a statement in which it ruled out pursuing legislation that would limit the "development, availability and use of encryption" within the Netherlands. In other words, the Dutch government has decided that it will not legislate the creation of "back doors" that would allow law enforcement from decrypting communications. That approach differs considerably to that of the United Kingdom, where the government is currently seeking comment on a draft law that would, among other things, require communications providers to have the ability to decrypt communications, retain metadata on their customers, and explicitly authorize UK law enforcement to engage in offensive cyber operations against terror suspects. Tech companies have roundly criticized the UK proposals, noting that they would have far-reaching consequences in reducing user security and privacy. Last week, NetPolitics contributor Lincoln Davidson recently took a look at the encryption issue in our top five cyber issues of 2015 series. You can check it out here. 4. More questions than answers over unauthorized code in Juniper software. Last month, Juniper Networks, one of the largest sellers of networking products, announced that it had discovered unauthorized code in some of its NetScreen firewall software that would allow a potential attacker to decrypt VPN traffic. The fact that Juniper called it unauthorized code instead of a software flaw (i.e. an error in the way the code was written) suggests that it was deliberately placed and probably the work of an intelligence agency. That led some to believe that the flaw was the work of the NSA, given that some of the Snowden documents refer to NSA operations against Juniper products. While Juniper has not further commented on what the unauthorized code contained, it would seem that Juniper deliberately undermined the security of NetScreen. According to Kim Zetter at WIRED, the company incorporated an algorithm into NetScreen’s code and configured it in a manner that would make it more vulnerable to compromise. It’s unclear why Juniper would do this--and Zetter does not speculate. The mystery is likely to become the best cyber-related whodunit of 2016.
  • Censorship and Freedom of Expression
    Internet Freedom Continues on Downward Trend
    Sanja Kelly directs the Freedom on the Net project at Freedom House. It has been a tumultuous few weeks in the world of Internet freedom. Among several high-profile arrests, a blogger in Kuwait was sentenced to four years in prison, with hard labor, for posting critical comments about Saudi Arabia on Twitter, allegedly affecting a cordial relations between the two countries. And in Bangladesh, six social media and messaging apps—including Facebook and WhatsApp—were blocked indefinitely amid “security concerns.” These disconcerting developments, unfortunately, are not isolated incidents. They are a part of a growing trend by governments to limit what can be said and done online. According to a new edition of Freedom on the Net, Freedom House’s annual assessment of online censorship released in late October, Internet freedom around the world has declined for the fifth consecutive year.  Of the sixty-five countries assessed, thirty-two have been on a negative trajectory since June 2014. Intensified censorship, growing surveillance, crackdown on encryption and anonymity, and more frequent arrests for online activities were identified as some of the most worrisome trends. China was the year’s worst abuser of Internet freedom. As President XI Jinping made “cyber sovereignty” one of the priorities of his tenure as leader of the Chinese Communist part, Internet users endured crackdowns on “rumors,” greater enforcement of rules against anonymity, and disruption to the circumvention tools that are commonly used to bypass censorship. Though not entirely new, these measures were implemented with unprecedented intensity. Google, whose services were frequently interrupted in the past, was almost completely blocked, veteran human rights defenders were jailed for online expression, and official directives during the year suppressed online commentary on topics ranging from Hong Kong pro-democracy protests to stock-market volatility. Globally, in a new trend, many governments have sought to shift the burden of censorship to private companies and individuals by pressing them to remove content, often resorting to direct blocking only when those measures fail. Local companies have been especially vulnerable to the whims of law enforcement and a recent proliferation of repressive laws. But large, international companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter have faced similar demands due their significant popularity and reach. In some instances, instead of turning to tech companies, authoritarian governments have gone directly to individual content creators and coerced them into deleting material. In Bahrain, for example, after the arrest of the user behind the satirical Twitter account @Takrooz, almost 100,000 tweets were deleted. Only one tweet remained: “They tortured me in prison.” Undeterred by the international backlash against surveillance following the NSA revelations, most governments have continued to strengthen their surveillance capacity—through new legal measures and through new technical means. This trend was evident in both democratic and non-democratic countries. For example, Australia, Italy, and the United Kingdom instituted new data retention requirements. However, this trend is even more concerning in countries where Internet freedom violations occur more frequently. Russia, for example, required ISPs to update their surveillance technologies, and many other former Soviet republics followed suit.  Meanwhile, in Thailand, where authorities frequently arrest users for criticizing the royal family on social networks, one of many orders issued by the military government in 2014 mandated military surveillance of social media sites. It is not a surprise then that given the mounting concerns over government surveillance, companies and Internet users have taken up new tools to protect the privacy of their data and identity. Unfortunately, some governments have moved to limit encryption and undermine anonymity for all Internet users, often citing the use of these tools by terrorists and criminals. In August 2015, for example, three staff members working for Vice News were arrested in southeastern Turkey and charged with supporting terrorists after authorities found encryption software on one of their computers. Similar accusations were brought against three Al-Jazeera journalists who were detained in Egypt and Zone 9 bloggers in Ethiopia. While our research has previously noted an increase in offline punishments for online expression, the penalties and reprisals reached a new level of severity in the past year, as both authorities and criminal groups made public examples of Internet users who opposed their agenda. Of the sixty-five countries, forty imprisoned people for sharing political or social content through digital networks.  In Iran, a cartoonist was sentenced to twelve years in prison for posting an image on Facebook that depicted members of parliament as animals. Sentences issued during 2015 for alleged online insults to Thailand’s monarch have exceeded twenty-five years in prison. And in China, an academic was sentenced for lifetime imprisonment, partly for running a website on Uighur affairs. In many ways, the past year was one of the consolidation and adaptations of Internet restrictions. Governments that had already greatly expanded their arsenal of tools for controlling the online sphere are now strengthening their application of these methods. It remains to be seen whether repressive efforts will be sustainable in the long run. Although their impact has so far been limited, activists in many countries have become better informed and better equipped to push against deteriorating conditions for global Internet freedom. It is their efforts that could help ensure that the fight for a free and open Internet ultimately succeeds, despite the setbacks that have affected so much of the world in recent years.
  • United Kingdom
    A Conversation With George Osborne
    Play
    George Osborne lays out his roadmap for the future of the UK economy and argues that Britain and its allies must continue to play a major role in the Middle East and elsewhere around the world. 
  • China
    In for a Yuan, in for a Pound: Is the United Kingdom Making a Bad Bet on China?
    What exactly is the objection to UK Chancellor George Osborne’s desire for the United Kingdom to be Beijing’s “best partner in the West” and to have a “relationship that is second to none”? After all, there is not a country on earth that does not want to have a robust trade and investment relationship with China, the world’s second largest economy. Yet critics in and outside the United Kingdom seem taken aback by Osborne’s willingness to state up front what many countries also so clearly desire—a direct line into an economy that is one of the world’s most significant engines of growth. In many respects, Osborne is only seeking to strengthen an already fairly dense set of UK-China economic ties. British banks have the largest exposure to the Chinese economy of any banks in the world: by the end of August 2015, they had $221.2 billion in outstanding loans to China, roughly two-and-a-half times the amount held by American banks. Chinese also represent the largest overseas purchasers of luxury real estate and the largest source of overseas students in the United Kingdom. Moreover, the United Kingdom is China’s largest recipient of foreign direct investment in the European Union. And the two countries appear to have reached consensus that London will become a “centre for renminbi trading, clearing and settlement.” Where the United Kingdom falls down a bit is on trade: China is only the United Kingdom’s seventh-largest market for exports (although it is the United Kingdom’s second-biggest supplier of imports). So what is the fuss? It is, in part, as Philip Stephens has noted in the Financial Times, that the “United Kingdom assumes an economic relationship requires submission on everything else.” Most obviously, as a result of Osborne’s economic focus, human rights issues appear not just lower on London’s agenda with Beijing, but not on the agenda at all. Although Prince Charles has at times spoken out in support of the Dalai Lama and Tibetan rights, and Prince William recently recorded a speech calling for China to do more to end the illegal ivory trade, the UK government has not displayed a similar willingness to publicly raise concerns with China. Over the past two years, Prime Minister Cameron refused to meet with the Dalai Lama; Chancellor Osborne traveled to Xinjiang, one of the most politically repressed regions of China, without mentioning human rights; the British ambassador to China refused to grant Chinese artist Ai Weiwei a six-month visa (a decision that was later reversed); and the United Kingdom agreed to move its exhibition in Beijing of the Magna Carta—a document that represents a cornerstone of democratic principles, guaranteeing individual rights and the rule of law—from an agreed upon exhibition space at Renmin University to a far smaller space for only a few hours at the British ambassador’s residence. There are also security concerns at stake. If indeed Beijing is to be London’s new best friend in the West, what does that mean for defense consultations between London and its traditional treaty allies? Will the United Kingdom become a proxy for Beijing in discussions about security in the Asia-Pacific?  Already, Prime Minister Cameron refused the opportunity while in Singapore to offer his thoughts on Asian security issues—despite the United Kingdom being a member of Asia’s Five Power Defence Arrangement—apparently afraid of offending Beijing. Last but not least, there are simply the optics. Osborne could no doubt have realized the same degree of Chinese investment and trade opportunities without sacrificing a healthy chunk of the United Kingdom’s international image and perhaps self-respect. Many countries, Germany and the United States among them, manage to have robust trade and investment relationships with China yet are not afraid to press China publicly to recognize the basic political rights the Chinese constitution grants its citizens. Those countries that do not—Zimbabwe, Pakistan, and Russia, for example—hardly seem the kind of company that London wants to keep. Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman offers a very thoughtful essay considering how the United Kingdom’s China policy might affect the U.S.-UK relationship, and I agree with much of what he says. But in truth, the United Kingdom’s decision about how to balance its relative political, economic, and security interests and define its policy toward China is not about the U.S.-UK or U.S.-China relationships. It is about the United Kingdom: the character of the country and, even more, of the people who lead it.
  • Global
    The World Next Week: July 2, 2015
    Podcast
    U.S. lawmakers push to revive the Export-Import Bank; Greece holds a referendum over bailout terms; and the UK marks 10 years since the July 7 terrorist attacks.
  • United Kingdom
    Assessing Scotland's Future
    Play
    Nicola Sturgeon discusses the recent United Kingdom parliamentary elections and what's next for Scotland.
  • United Kingdom
    Is Britain Retreating From the World?
    Despite the lack of foreign policy debate in the run-up to the UK general elections, pressing questions about the United Kingdom’s relationship with Scotland and the EU loom, says expert Richard G. Whitman. 
  • Global
    The World Next Week: April 30, 2015
    Podcast
    The U.S. Senate may vote on legislation to review the Iran nuclear deal; Nepal recovers from its earthquake; and the UK holds general elections.
  • Human Rights
    No "Gentleman’s Agreement" for Jews in Sweden
    The book "Gentleman’s Agreement," by Laura Z. Hobson, appeared in 1947, followed by the film of the same name starring Gregory Peck (and winning three Oscars). The plot is simple: a journalist assigned to write about anti-Semitism in the post-war United States decides to pose as a Jew and see what happens. He encounters a good deal of social anti-Semitism: country clubs, "restricted" neighborhoods, jobs that somehow are off-limits. He is not beaten or assaulted, nor does he face physical danger. Instead he faces quiet, unwritten "Gentleman’s Agreements" that exclude Jews. Recently, a television reporter in Malmo, Sweden tried the same approach to discover what it is like to live as a Jew in Malmo. The entire hour-long show, in Swedish with subtitles, can be found here. Tom Gross, at his web site covering stories related to the Middle East and Jewish affairs, describes it this way: Swedish TV on Wednesday showed footage of a non-Jewish reporter who walked around Malmo wearing a kippah to test attitudes toward Jews. He was punched in the arm and cursed at by passers-by before cutting short his journalistic experiment out of fear he would be subjected to more serious injury. Sveriges Television also showed footage of the journalist sitting at a café in central Malmo reading a newspaper, while passersby hurled anti-Semitic abuse at him. Gross’s Facebook page is here and his website "Mideast Media Analyses" here. In Malmo, there are no "Gentleman’s Agreements" and there is the clear threat of violence. Toward the end of the hour the reporter confronts a local official, who attributes the problem to the extreme right--something that the show has proved is obviously untrue, but that fits her preconceived notions better. Some Malmo officials now say they understand the threats better and will do more to protect the Jewish community, but it is difficult to be optimistic about that. Meanwhile, hate crimes against Jews rose 128% in London, reports Scotland Yard, so the problem is obviously not limited to Malmo--or to Paris, where an attack on a 13 year old Jewish boy just happened. Here is Gross: "In the latest of a long line of anti-Semitic attacks in France (most of which are not reported in the international media) a 13-year-old Jewish boy was sprayed in his eye with mace and pepper spray this week in a northeastern Paris suburb, by three young women shouting anti-Semitic slogans. The victim wore a kippah and tzitzit, making him easily identifiable as Jewish. The victim was blinded, and rushed by passers-by to hospital, where the police report said he suffered intense pain for some time." Incidents such as there explain why Israel is preparing for a significant increase in immigration of European Jews who no longer feel secure in their home countries. In Europe, the problem for many Jews isn’t "Gentleman’s Agreements" keeping them out of select country clubs or restricted neighborhoods. The problem is that they cannot assure their children’s safety.
  • Israel
    The British Royals, Arabs, and Israel
    The bizarre story of the refusal of British royals to visit Israel, while they are constantly in the Arab world, continues. I wrote about this phenomenon here, last February, when Prince Charles visited Saudi Arabia. As I noted then, the Queen has never set foot in Israel and Prince Charles set foot there briefly only once, for the Rabin funeral. By contrast, in just the month of November 2014 we found Prince Andrew and Prince Harry at what the Foreign Office must have considered a diplomatic necessity: the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Prince Andrew also visited Saudi Arabia (at the request of the Foreign Office, it was announced). And Prince Harry also visited Oman. Now with all due respect, Oman is a country of 3.6 million people with a GDP of $80 billion. Israel is a country of 8 million people with a GDP of about $300 billion. No point in laboring the comparison, but one might add that Prince Charles visited Oman in 2013 and the Queen herself visited there in 2010. There are really only three logical explanations. The first is that the British royals only like to visit royals, and try to stay away from republics. But Prince Charles has visited Egypt time after time, so there goes that theory. The second possible explanation is fear--fear that any kind of royal visit to Israel would harm the UK, for example if Arab lands retaliated by cutting trade with Britain. This is silly. Prince Charles visited Jordan last year and could easily have helicoptered over for a day in Israel. Princes Andrew or Harry could have stopped by while in the Middle East as well. Given the current tacit alliance of Israel and the Gulf monarchies against Iran and ISIS, the likelihood that such visits would have harmed the UK is impossibly small. The third possible explanation for the continuing refusal of the British royals to set foot in Israel is that either they or the Foreign Office harbor deep and undying enmity toward the Jewish state. You pick.  
  • Human Rights
    How Safe Are the Jews of Europe?
    A new study by the Institute for Jewish Policy Research (a London-based research organization, which conducted the survey on behalf of the Fundamental Rights Agency of the EU) is "the first in a series of reports looking at the perceptions and experiences of antisemitism among Jews in different EU Member States." The findings are alarming, although they make it clear that the situation of British Jews is considerably better than that of Jews living on the Continent. The study is entitled "The Exceptional Case? Perceptions and experiences of antisemitism among Jews in the United Kingdom," and can be found here.  Among the findings about the UK: --Close to 70% of British Jews say anti-Semitism there is growing. --A significant minority of 15-20% of (British) respondents who say they do avoid Jewish events and certain places in their neighborhood, at least on occasion, due to concern for their safety as Jews. --A remarkable three in five traditionally observant Jews report that they sometimes avoid public displays of Jewishness--such as wearing a kipah or displaying a mezuzah--out of fear. That’s the good news. As the study concludes, "compared with other Jewish populations in Europe, Jews in the United Kingdom generally experience less antisemitism and are less worried about it."  Here are some data about the Continent: --74% of French Jews worry about being victims of anti-Semitic acts. --52% of French Jews says they are considering leaving France entirely. These data show that Jewish life in Europe is rather different from that in Canada or the United States, where such elements of fear are absent. Absent as well are the various legal initiatives in Europe to ban kosher slaughter and circumcision; passage of such laws makes Jewish life impossible and delivers a message to Jews that the welcome mat has been pulled and it is time to leave. The study is carefully done, and worth a serious look.      
  • Middle East and North Africa
    The New York Times and Israel (Again)
    The New York Times, whose hostility to Israel is visible in both its news and its editorial pages, was at it again yesterday. In an editorial (about the symbolic vote in the UK parliament backing Palestinian statehood) entitled "A British Message to Israel," the Times’s editorial board unloaded yet again with a barrage of advice, opinion--and untruths. Here are some of the key words: The vote is one more sign of the frustration many people in Europe feel about the failure to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement despite years of promises. The most recent American-mediated talks collapsed in April. Meanwhile, Israel continues to build new settlements or expand existing ones, thus shrinking the territory available for a Palestinian state and ignoring an international community that considers such construction illegal. The recent war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, which killed more than 2,000 Palestinians and 73 Israelis, has increased the sense that violence will keep recurring while peace remains elusive. There are a couple of points worth making in reaction to this.  First, on settlements, note that the Times makes two claims: that "Israel continues to build new settlements" and that expansion of existing ones is "shrinking the territory available for a Palestinian state." Neither assertion is true. In the last decade the Israelis removed all the settlements in Gaza and four very small ones in the West Bank. The days of building new settlements all over the West Bank are long gone. And "settlement expansion" has meant expansion of population, not territory, so their footprint in the West Bank has not changed. The so-called "peace map" is the same. Second, note the way the Times refers to the recent Gaza war: It seems that "violence will keep recurring." How nasty of Violence to do that. The Times does not consider that Hamas deliberately started this conflict, and by burying this sentence in an editorial censuring Israel makes it clear that Israel is really to blame. This is ludicrous, considering the barrages of rockets and missiles and mortars Hamas shot into Israel, but it is of a piece with the Times’s general view: Israel is the problem. It is this bias that, last summer, led one of America’s leading Reform rabbis to cancel his subscription. He is Richard Block, president for 2013-2015 of of the association of Reform rabbis (the CCAR). Here is how Block began: I am a lifelong Democrat, a political liberal, a Reform rabbi, and for four decades, until last week, a New York Times subscriber. What drove me away was the paper’s incessant denigration of Israel, a torrent of articles, photographs, and op-ed columns that consistently present the Jewish State in the worst possible light. This phenomenon is not new. Knowledgeable observers have long assailed the Times lack of objectivity and absence of journalistic integrity in reporting on Israel. My chronic irritation finally morphed into alienation and then to visceral disgust this summer, after Hamas renewed its terrorist assaults upon Israel and the Times launched what can only be described as a campaign to delegitimize the Jewish State. That campaign continues, most recently in the editorial about the British move.
  • United Kingdom
    A Divided Kingdom
    The United Kingdom will be irrevocably changed as a result of this week’s independence referendum, whichever way Scotland votes, says expert Richard Whitman.