Nuclear Energy

Cyber operations that target nuclear-armed states could unintentionally pressure them into preemptively using their nuclear weapons.

An explosion has caused heavy damage to an Iranian nuclear facility just as the country approaches a bold new energy partnership with China, but Iran shows no signs of slowing down its nuclear program.

Test your knowledge of nuclear arms control and nonproliferation, from international treaties to diplomatic forums.

Background reading on the future of the global nuclear trade and the commercial opportunities and national security risks that it presents to the United States.

A cause of South African malaise since 2010 and beyond has been the shortage of electricity. This shortage transcended more than just social divisions (rich and poor, influential and powerless), it also had a direct impact on the most sophisticated economy in Africa – one that is highly dependent of uninterrupted power. This was the backdrop to President Jacob Zuma’s nuclear cooperation deal with Russian company Rosatom in 2013, with a further agreement in 2016.  Zuma’s government has also had conversations with potential nuclear suppliers in South Korea and the United States. Throughout, Zuma’s nuclear initiative has hardly been transparent, and Zuma’s critics saw the likelihood of contract “irregularities” that would benefit Zuma’s cronies, the Gupta brothers, and perhaps Zuma himself and his family. However, at present there is no longer a power shortage, and load shedding has stopped. The new power abundance appears to be as a result of new generating plants coming on line and a static, possibly declining, demand for power associated with the lack of economic growth. Meanwhile, the Western Cape High Court has ruled that Zuma’s Department of Energy’s deals with “foreign governments” did not follow legal procedures- yet another example of the independent South African judiciary stopping Zuma dead in his tracks. Even during the period of power shortages, many South Africans were dubious about a nuclear energy program. There was concern about its costs and its safety. Though it was the opposition parties that were most vocal, there was significant anti-nuclear sentiment within Zuma’s African National Congress, a reminder that the governing party is hardly monolithic. Further, renewable sources of power are becoming cheaper–and the end of load shedding has made nuclear power less compelling. The court ruling addressed the process by which Zuma was seeking a nuclear agreement with the Russians, not the issue of nuclear power in general. So, the Zuma government could continue to pursue a nuclear agreement through methods that would pass legal muster. However, it is unlikely that one can be achieved before the ANC’s 54th National Conference in December, where the betting is that Zuma will be replaced as party leader. Hence, under these circumstances, there is a reasonable chance that Zuma’s ambitious and expensive nuclear power initiative will cease to exist.

This is a guest post by Sagatom Saha, the research Associate for energy and U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Last week, Westinghouse Electric Company, the firm that once marked America’s dominance in nuclear power, filed for bankruptcy.  Over the decades, the United States has since been reduced to a minor player in the global nuclear market it created. And although some of the world’s largest developed economies like Germany and Japan have taken a step back from nuclear power, in rapidly emerging economies keen on securing clean, reliable, and affordable power, nuclear is poised for growth. In Foreign Affairs, I explain how Russia is benefiting geopolitically in America’s absence. Although emerging economies may want to deploy nuclear power to meet a variety of goals from meeting their climate targets under the Paris Agreement to powering their growing economies, Russia has been aggressively exporting nuclear technologies as a matter of foreign policy. Putin himself has travelled internationally to sign deals to construct nuclear reactors on nearly every continent. As a result, Russia already dominates the global market, and it is poised to increase its market share. Moscow already uses its favorable market position to exact political gains like support within the European Union from Hungary. If this trend continues, Russia could find itself with more allies in the decades to come, and the United States fewer. In the essay, I write: Russia stands to benefit most from the developing world’s increasing appetite for nuclear power. Rosatom currently has export orders valued at more than $300 billion—60 percent of the overall market—for 34 plants in 13 countries. Russia’s share of the global nuclear export market will increase as long as the Kremlin considers it a matter of state policy. Putin’s visit to Hungary was only one stop in an international tour to sign nuclear power deals that resulted in broad agreements on nuclear power with 13 nations on nearly every continent.