Donald Trump

The trade war between the United States and China has entered a new and dangerous phase.

The Democratic candidate has laid out a comprehensive trade policy, but it speaks more to party activists than to voters.

Despite the president's diplomatic drama, U.S. interests will likely, in the end, decide policy.

The liberal world order faces a litany of challenges today. Instead of abandoning the world order that has served most of the world well, the United States and Middle Powers should seek to preserve and prolong that order.

Experts from the Council of Councils rank managing the global economy the second highest priority on the global agenda and graded the world's performance on the issue a middling C+. 

If the president succeeds, he will be free to slap tariffs on any country or any product at any time for whatever reason he dreams up.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe designed an elaborate visit for President Trump, complete with golf, a sumo championship, warship tours, and a meeting with the new emperor and empress. But the pageantry couldn’t paper over every crack between the two leaders. The big picture: Discussions of bilateral trade and North Korea’s missile program left Abe struggling to accommodate Trump. Yet he knows how much hinges on their alliance and will do all he can to ensure Japan and the United States remain steady partners. Details: After Trump railed against the trade deficit and the “advantage” given to Japanese firms by previous U.S. administrations, Abe countered with details of Japan’s investments over the past 2 years in the U.S. market and its creation of 45,000 new American jobs. Flashback: Last September Abe agreed to begin talks for a Trade Agreement in Goods, under which Japan would offer greater market access for U.S. agricultural products while the United States would continue to welcome imports of Japanese autos and auto parts. (Both issues had been part of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Trump abandoned early in his presidency.) Reality check: Trump's priorities notwithstanding, Japan’s manufacturers and government doubt a new bilateral deal would do much to shift the trade deficit. Meanwhile, Abe also confronted dissembling on Kim Jong Un’s recent missile tests, which Trump dismissed as acts of "a man who wants to get attention" even after national security adviser John Bolton had called them a violation of UN sanctions. In response, Abe reiterated his desire to meet directly with Kim, with missiles and abductions at the top of his agenda. What to watch: At the end of June, Abe will play host to a more complex array of state leaders at the G-20 Summit in Osaka. Trump will return, alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Though most eyes will be on Xi and Trump, Abe did propose mediating U.S.–Iran talks, an offer Trump publicly welcomed. The bottom line: Abe’s skill at maneuvering these difficult foreign relations will likely help his party at the polls this summer. A less proven leader could be harder to entrust with Japan's interests in the current climate, especially its prized U.S. alliance. This piece originally appeared on Axios.

Yesterday the Washington Post reported that Japanese government officials who tracked the metrics of the Abe-Trump relationship tallied forty-two conversations, in person and on the phone. This is an unprecedented level of communication for the leaders of the United States and Japan. This weekend’s visit by the U.S. president to Tokyo will add even more opportunity for the allied leaders to cement their partnership.  The pomp and circumstance planned for this visit by President Donald J. Trump to Japan reveals just how important the leader-to-leader approach has been to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The Japanese government has been adept at drawing out the tempestuous U.S. leader, finding opportunities to show him the benefits of the American partnership with Japan but doing so with a heavily personal touch. Few can forget the photo of Prime Minister Abe in the golf cart with the president early on trying to woo him back to the Trans-Pacific Partnership. On this visit, Trump will visit Japan’s largest and soon to be even more lethal destroyer, the JS Izumo, a nod to Japan’s growing contribution to Asia’s military balance. This visit will be no exception. President Trump will be the first world leader to meet with Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako of Japan. It will showcase Japan’s fresh start in the new Reiwa era, with a young and cosmopolitan Imperial couple in the forefront. And the setting will be, well, Imperial. Red carpet and centuries of dynastic tradition will be mobilized in the service of cementing the primacy of U.S.-Japan relations. The president will also have some fun. Sports are in the mix. Golf, of course, will be an important setting for a more intimate discussion between Shinzo and Donald. Each visit between the two leaders, whether in the United States or in Japan, has included a golf outing. Last time in Tokyo, Prime Minister Abe impressed the social media world when a video of him slipping into a sand trap and somersaulting out with grace went viral. President Trump quipped, “I said, I will not ask if that’s you, but if it was, I’m very impressed because you’re better than any gymnast I’ve ever seen.” The president will also spend time with Japan’s famed sumo wrestlers on this trip. A “Trump cup” is in the works, the first time a U.S. president will award the winner of the seasonal tournament with the prize. Expect it to be large—and gold, and emblazoned with the Trump logo. Sumo fans at the event will need to temper their feelings, however. Throwing their zabuton (seat cushions) into the ring will not be allowed, apparently.  This summit will be policy-lite, designed to highlight the strengths of the U.S.-Japan partnership rather than the wrinkles. Those wrinkles are there, however. The Japanese government will likely want to correct the notion that Washington only cares about North Korea’s ICBMs and not its shorter-range missiles that can reach Japan and other U.S. allies. Both President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo downplayed the recent North Korean missile tests, suggesting a crack in the alliance's deterrent.  Bilateral trade talks perhaps seem closest to the surface for this visit. The announcement by the Trump administration that it is postponing for six months a decision on the imposition of punitive tariffs on autos and auto parts for national security reasons pushed back a critical influence on U.S.-Japan trade discussions. Undoubtedly, Japan’s upcoming summer election makes open friction between the United States and Japan on trade an unwelcome prospect for Abe. But all eyes in Japan will be on the decision-making in Washington on trade.  Finally, and perhaps at the moment less conspicuous, is the question of Japan’s host nation support for U.S. forces stationed there. The U.S.-South Korea talks ended in acrimony earlier this year, with rumors of the Moon government rejecting absolutely a U.S. demand for a massive increase in South Korean spending. After ten rounds of talks failed, South Korea agreed to pay an additional eight percent to host U.S. troops under an interim one-year deal. Japan hosts 50,000 U.S. military personnel and provides the highest allied contribution to their forward deployment in Asia. Japan may be better positioned than South Korea going into these talks, but the timing of the talks beginning in a U.S. election year could complicate the discussion. Expect this weekend to be full of smiles, and celebration, however. Japan’s prime minister has pulled out all the stops for this visit, evidence of the continued importance of the United States to his country’s security. Abe will also show Trump the institutional benefits of centuries of Japanese tradition and history, suggesting perhaps that dignity and continuity—as opposed to disruption and unpredictability—have their merits. 

International trade isn’t the problem—it’s Republican trade policies that have empowered corporations while leaving American workers behind.

Experts from the Council of Councils grade international cooperation on global trade a middling C in 2018, rank it one of the lowest priorities on the global agenda, and are only somewhat optimistic about progress in the next year.

How did world leaders do in managing global challenges in 2018? Experts from twenty-eight think tanks around the world grade international cooperation a middling C.

China’s industrial policy is aimed at rapidly expanding its high-tech sectors and developing its advanced manufacturing base, but President Trump and other leaders of industrial democracies see the plan as a threat.

President Trump’s hosting of Prime Minister Viktor Orban will be viewed as a boost to populists and another blow to Europe’s strained political center.