• International Law
    Uganda: Museveni’s Power
    Police spray Ugandan opposition party leaders with coloured water during demonstrations in the capital Kampala, May 10, 2011. (James Akena/Courtesy Reuters) Uganda’s governance is on a downward spiral, and Yoweri Museveni, the Big Man president, may be in trouble. Already in power for twenty-five years, Museveni has been spending money profligately on prestige projects while food and fuel prices continue to rise. The Ugandan leader has reportedly spent millions in public money to conduct his less than credible presidential re-election in February, allocated over $700 million to purchase six Russian fighter jets, and used an estimated $1.2 million to host his fifth-term inauguration tomorrow. Museveni reportedly invited Omar Al-Bashir to attend the ceremony, though it’s unclear whether or not the Sudanese leader will show. In the meantime, the Ugandan Bureau of Statistics released new figures that indicate a sharp increase in the official food inflation rate from 29.1 percent in March to 39.3 percent in April. Last week, the Ugandan police beat and pepper sprayed the most prominent opposition politician, Kizza Besigye when he tried to take part in a peaceful anti-government demonstration.  Subsequently, he went to Nairobi for medical treatment. He had planned to return to Entebbe and potentially participate in another anti-government demonstration this week. At the time of writing, however, Besigye was not on the last Kenya Airways flight out of Nairobi, as Ugandan authorities reportedly said they would not allow the aircraft to land if he was on it. Despite pressure from the walk-to-work demonstrations and the deterioration in security, Museveni could muddle through. The Western media is concentrated in Kampala and Entebbe, so it is difficult to judge from its reporting the degree of disaffection in the rural areas. Museveni has also lashed out at the local press and some photo journalists have reported harassment, which may limit local media coverage of future demonstrations. Ugandan politics also has a local character made up of multiple ethnic, regional and religious allegiances, so Museveni has built a robust patronage network to control the country—and remain in power. While Museveni may have ostensible support on certain issues (he did usher in free primary and secondary education in 1997 and 2007, respectively), his use of corruption and patronage politics allows him to control multiple, competing groups at the same time. To that end, it remains to be seen if the walk-to-work campaign has enough widespread support to override the incumbent’s patronage system--or whether it can promise anything markedly better in terms of services, jobs, and development. Given the brutal crackdown of late, it’s unclear whether the majority of Ugandans even believe Museveni can be toppled.
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    Justice and Accountabilty: Kenya and Uganda
    Kenya's Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta (L, back row), Cabinet Secretary Francis Muthaura (2nd L, front row), and former police chief Hussein Ali appear (2nd R, front row) at the International Criminal Court in The Hague April 8, 2011. (Staff Photographer/Courtesy Reuters) While I have been focusing my attention on Ivory Coast and the elections in Nigeria along with everybody else, there have been significant developments in East Africa—and they have implications for the continent as a whole. In Kenya, the ‘Ocampo Six’ appeared before the International Criminal Court (ICC) Pre-Trial Chamber on April 7 and 8 in The Hague. They have been ‘indicted,’ but the Court will not determine until September 1 whether they will face trial. Their recent ICC appearance has spurred a significant development in Nairobi: popular politician William Ruto, like Moi a member of the Kalenjin ethnic group,  and finance minister Uhuru Kenyata, a Kikuyu and son of Jomo Kenyatta, have used their potential trials to form an informal inter-ethnic political alliance looking toward  the  2012 general elections. Uniting under a Kiswahili slogan—Tuko Pamoja, “We are Together”— the two politicians have used the ICC trial abroad to galvanize political support at home. Nevertheless, while I have mentioned many African leaders’ disdain for the ICC, it is not shared by all Africans. A recent poll from a credible firm suggests 61 percent of the general population in Kenya favors the ICC process rather than a local tribunal. With important ramifications for future trials, I will continue to watch how Kenya’s ICC process—and the subsequent political situation—unfolds. While the criticism remains that all of the cases currently before the ICC involve Africans, the ICC does appear to be a means of holding politicians accountable. In Uganda, the Museveni government continued its heavy-handed treatment of political opponents. On Monday, police arrested main opposition leader Kizza Besigye when he was protesting rising food and fuel prices by “walking to work.” Although Ugandan authorities released Besigye on bail, his detention on the charges of “inciting violence” and “refusal to take lawful order from the police” demonstrates the Museveni regime’s increasing disregard for the freedom of assembly and the right to political expression. In February, I discussed Museveni’s “re-election” to extend his twenty-five year rule. Besigye’s detention does not augur well for peaceful political reforms, at least in the short term.
  • Ivory Coast
    Possible International Criminal Court Investigation in Cote d’Ivoire
    An anti-Gbagbo protester holds a portrait of presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara during a demonstration in Abobo. (Luc Gnago/Courtesy Reuters) As of mid day on April 6, Laurent Gbagbo, the French government, and Allasane Outtarra are still maneuvering around the terms of Gbagbo’s departure. International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo is seeking support from at least one of the members of the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) to refer alleged human rights abuses in Cote d’Ivoire to the ICC at The Hague. Ocampo mentions “alleged mass killings in the Western part of the country”—clearly a reference to the hundreds found dead in the Ivorian town of Duékoué. While both sides share responsibility for killings in Cote d’Ivoire, in the western media at least, Gbagbo’s Young Patriots (irregulars loyal only to himself) appear most culpable. The potential for new ICC involvement in Cote d’Ivoire may complicate negotiations for Gbagbo’s departure and make the latter more intransigent. Gbagbo’s allies and supporters are likely to argue that  the ICC does not respect Ivorian sovereignty. There are over twenty cases at The Hague related to crimes committed in Africa—and none anywhere else. Some African leaders on this basis allege that the ICC’s prosecutors are biased against Africa.
  • International Law
    Scowcroft: Avoiding Mission Creep in Libya
    Former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft discusses developments in the Middle East and the intervention in Libya with CFR’s Director of Studies James Lindsay. Drawing on lessons from the first and second Gulf Wars, Scowcroft warns of mission creep in coalition efforts in Libya.
  • Kenya
    Kibaki’s Attempt to Defer ICC Cases Fizzles
    Kenya's President Kibaki arrives at the 16th African Union summit, in Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. (Thomas Mukoya/Courtesy Reuters) Kenyan President Mwai Kabaki is pushing back – hard – on the International Criminal Court’s indictment and upcoming trial of six Kenyan political leaders. He sent his vice president, Kalonzo Musyoka, and a team to New York last week to lobby UN Security Council members to defer the current ICC cases related to the 2007-2008 post-election violence.  However, Kabaki’s push back thus far has been unsuccessful. Moreover, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Johnnie Carson suggested that the United States would veto any resolution that would transfer cases from the Hague to national tribunals, as Kabaki’s African Union-endorsed plan entails. Kabaki’s push back seems to me clear evidence that the indictments have hurt him politically and have the potential for further scrambling Kenya’s ethnic politics. After all, two of those indicted by the International Criminal Court, William Ruto and Uhuru Kenyatta, are popular leaders among their respective ethnic groups and appear to be joining forces ahead of the 2012 general election.
  • International Law
    Bracing for Indictments in Lebanon
    Pending indictments in a UN tribunal could link Hezbollah and Syria to the death of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. Lebanon expert Michael Young says all sides, including Saudi Arabia and the U.S., are scrambling to deal with the impact of the findings.  
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
    ICC Plans to Prosecute Kenyan Politicians
    The prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has gone public with his intention to prosecute five senior Kenyan political figures for crimes against humanity associated with the 2007 elections. While this is a highly positive step with respect to breaking down a culture of impunity among senior African political figures, many African politicians across the continent will not welcome this. Sub-Saharan African opinion in general puts a premium on “African solidarity,” and African media and political figures have already accused the prosecutor, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, an Argentine lawyer, of an undue focus on their continent. Many Africans have objected to his efforts to prosecute Sudan President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan for genocide. (Photos: Thomas Mukoya/ courtesy Reuters)
  • United States
    The Legal Case against WikiLeaks
    The State Department will likely push for WikiLeaks’ founder Julian Assange to be prosecuted under all available statutes, including the Espionage Act, says CFR’s John Bellinger, who notes the recent releases harmed sources and foreign relations.
  • Global
    International Criminal Law Enforcement: Rule of Law, Anti-Corruption, and Beyond
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    Assistant Attorney General Lanny A. Breuer discusses international law enforcement of corruption and bribery.
  • International Law
    From Rome to Kampala
    Overview The United States has long been a leading force behind international efforts to bring the perpetrators of atrocities to justice. It spearheaded the prosecution of German and Japanese officials after World War II and more recently supported tribunals to deal with events in Rwanda, the former Yugoslavia, and elsewhere. Washington has kept far more distance, however, from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Although President Bill Clinton allowed U.S. negotiators to sign the Rome Statute, the agreement that established the court, he and subsequent presidents have maintained objections to elements of the court’s jurisdiction and prosecutorial authority. U.S. administrations have since cooperated to varying degrees with the ICC, but the notion of ratifying the Rome Statute and joining the court has never been seriously entertained. Even as a nonmember, though, the United States has important interests at stake in the ICC’s operations. On the one hand, the court can bring to justice those responsible for atrocities, something with both moral and strategic benefits. On the other hand, there are fears that the court could seek to investigate American actions and prosecute American citizens, as well as concerns that it will weaken the role of the UN Security Council (where the United States has a veto) as the preeminent arbiter of international peace and security. This Council Special Report, authored by Vijay Padmanabhan, examines how the United States should advance its interests at the ICC’s 2010 review conference, scheduled for May and June in Kampala, Uganda. After outlining the history of U.S. policy toward the court, the report analyzes the principal items on the review conference agenda, most notably the debate over the crime of aggression. The conference faces the task of deciding whether to adopt a definition of aggression and, should it do so, whether and how to activate the court’s jurisdiction over this crime. Padmanabhan explains the important questions this debate raises. Offering guidance for U.S. policy, the report recommends that the United States not seek to join the court in the foreseeable future. However, Padmanabhan urges the Obama administration to make an active case for its preferred outcomes at the review conference, including by sending a cabinet-level official to Kampala. On the question of aggression, he calls for a strong stand against activating the ICC’s jurisdiction. He argues that the proposed definition is overly vague, something that could endanger U.S. interests and risk embroiling the court in political disputes over investigations. Should the review conference nonetheless adopt a definition, he advises the administration to emphasize the potential drawbacks of activating the ICC’s jurisdiction without consensus among its members. On other issues, the report urges the United States to contribute constructively to the evaluation of the court’s functioning that the conference will carry out. And if the conference’s overall outcome is favorable, Padmanabhan concludes, the United States should consider boosting its cooperation with the court in such areas as training, funding, the sharing of intelligence and evidence, and the apprehension of suspects. From Rome to Kampala offers a timely agenda for U.S. policy at this year’s review conference and toward the ICC in general. Its thoughtful analysis and detailed recommendations make an important addition to current thinking on a set of issues with deep moral, legal, and strategic implications.
  • Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
    Seeking Nuclear Security Through Greater International Coordination
    Overview In April 2009, U.S. president Barack Obama identified nuclear terrorism as the gravest threat to the United States. But debates in the main decision-making bodies in Vienna and New York reveal strong resistance to measures that would strengthen the nuclear security regime. This International Institutions and Global Governance program Working Paper by Jack Boureston and Tanya Ogilvie-White offers suggestions to strengthen the nuclear security regime and achieve the four-year goal set by President Obama to secure all vulnerable nuclear materials around the world. The paper concludes that the time-consuming task of forging international consensus will be essential to preventing what Graham Allison has called "the ultimate preventable catastrophe"—a nuclear terrorist attack.
  • International Organizations
    Pursuing International Justice: A Conversation with Luis Moreno-Ocampo
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    Recently, ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo expressed plans to investigate alleged crimes against humanity during post-election violence in Kenya, and is considering an investigation of alleged war crimes during the 2008 Gaza War. To date, situations in Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Central African Republic, and Darfur have been referred to the ICC. Please join Luis Moreno-Ocampo to discuss these issues, case selection, and the foreign policy implications of the ICC’s work.      
  • International Organizations
    Pursuing International Justice: A Conversation with Luis Moreno-Ocampo
    Play
    Watch Luis Moreno-Ocampo, International Criminal Court prosecutor, outline his plans to investigate alleged crimes against humanity and the foreign policy implications of the ICC's work.
  • United States
    Obama ’Straddling Debate’ on Prosecuting 9/11 Prisoners
    The Obama administration’s decision to try accused 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheik Mohammed in New York but other accused terrorists by military commission will revive debate over Guantanamo Bay and the laws of war, says CFR’s Matthew Waxman.
  • International Law
    The United States and the Future of Global Governance: The Use of Force and Accountability in International Law - A U.S. Perspective
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    Do current trends in international law threaten U.S. sovereignty? What international legal or normative restraints on the use of force should the United States accept and promote? What should be the place of international law in U.S. jurisprudence? What attitude should the United States take toward the International Criminal Court?