Diplomacy and International Institutions

Conflict Prevention

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
    Balkans 2010
    Overview Despite years of involvement by the United States and its allies, the Balkans region is suffering from economic stagnation and high unemployment; hundreds of thousands of refugees still await resettlement; prominent war criminals remain at large; and political and legal reform is impeded by endemic corruption, organized crime, and in some cases, a lack of political will. Yet after a decade of extensive involvement and peacemaking in the Balkans, the United States and its allies are winding down their commitment to the region. At this critical juncture, warns this independent Task Force report, if the problems besieging the Balkan states are left unresolved, they will lead to serious social and economic instability for southeastern Europe. Neglecting these problems will lead to growing poverty, an increase in illegal economic activity, further human displacement, and a greater likelihood of political extremism, all in the heart of Europe. Furthermore, the report asserts, abandoning the Muslim populations of Bosnia and Kosovo will further reduce U.S. standing in the Muslim world and may encourage Balkan Muslims to turn to religious militants, rather than to Europe, for protection. It is therefore essential that the stakeholders in the Balkans, particularly the United States and the European Union (EU), make clear the economic, political, and security benefits of reform and cooperation with European standards and institutions and be equally explicit about the penalties--including the withholding of financial aid and international isolation--for regression, obstructionism, or the use of violence. To help the Balkans achieve stability and integration in Europe, the Task Force makes the following key recommendations: reorganize the international community’s involvement in the Balkans around the EU’s Stabilization and Association Process and NATO’s Membership Action Plan and Partnership for Peace program, with the goal of an orderly reduction of the overall international presence in the region by 2010; use “carrots” (such as access to privileged political and economic relations and favorable trade terms with Europe) and “sticks” (such as linking financial assistance to specific performance goals) to reward or compel political, economic, social, and security reform; implement internationally led law enforcement campaigns, initially in Bosnia and Kosovo, to cripple the politico-criminal syndicates that threaten internal and regional security; and establish the rule of law and develop transparent and accountable systems of criminal and civil justice that are fair to all citizens.
    Report by Edward C. Meyer and Major General William L. Nash December 9, 2002 Center for Preventive Action
  • Conflict Prevention
    Blood on the Doorstep
    Read an excerpt of Blood on the Doorstep. Given the dramatic loss of life, the fallout in terms of refugees and other serious problems, and the attacks that deadly conflict inflicts on our fundamental values, preventing such conflict and the disorder it sows should be a much higher priority for the United States, other governments, international organizations, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Combining hard-headed commentary with expert analysis of recent deadly conflicts in Somalia, Rwanda, the Balkans, and Afghanistan, Rubin shows that violence arises not only from internal conflicts within poverty-stricken societies, but also from external political manipulation and failures of global institutions. He explores other factors that contribute to conflict and lead to violence, such as the demand for illegal drugs, weak banking regulations that facilitate looting by corrupt rulers, arms trafficking by terrorists, and the economic marginalization of entire populations. Because the prevention of deadly conflict requires intervention in political conflicts, preventive action must itself be viewed as political, with all the struggles and compromises that entails. According to Rubin, the solution lies in coalitions of international organizations, NGOs, and states prepared to take political action, and not in a new "institutional architecture" or "global governance." A Council on Foreign Relations Book
    Book by Barnett R. Rubin November 12, 2002
  • Conflict Prevention
    Deadly Conflicts
    Read an excerpt of "Deadly Conflicts." Overview On January 31st, the Center for Preventive Action held a workshop that gathered scholars and practitioners to examine the issue of early warning and conflict prevention. Important points that emerged from the discussion are the following: A workable system for Early Warning is indispensable to making conflict prevention a credible foreign policy option. The challenge of early warning does not reside in the lack of information but in its adequate processing, and the adequate link to policy-making and politics. A number of approaches were considered: the U.S. government uses a list process to flag potential crises, the U.N has created a "framework for coordination team" to encourage departmental interaction and monitor potentially troubled regions. Tools are being developed by governmental agencies and private contractors using new technologies to build models and software to help decision-makers anticipate, assess and address conflicts. Policy makers stress two principal functions for early warning: avoiding surprises and identifying possible policy options. Establishing a dialogue between relevant interlocutors in the intelligence and the policy-making community is of crucial importance. The difficulty of relating early warning to policy making results from policymakers' time constraint and their aversion to acting on indeterminate events; in addition, the intelligence community maintains an institutional aversion to suggesting policy-options.
    Report by The Council on Foreign Relations January 31, 2001 Center for Preventive Action
  • Conflict Prevention
    Calming the Ferghana Valley
    Of all the regions of the former Soviet Union, Central Asia is potentially one of the most explosive and certainly one of the least understood. It is also growing rapidly in importance to U.S. national security, commercial, and foreign policy interests: it has vast oil, gas, gold, and other resources; it has become a source and transit route for narcotics and possible nuclear and other materials; and it is affected by the fierce conflicts in Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Vast in size (larger than eastern and western Europe combined), and with a rapidly growing population of over fifty million people, it is marked by the persistence of relatively corrupt and authoritarian governments. This report assesses the potential for conflict in Central Asia through the prism of one of its most volatile areas, the Ferghana Valley. Spanning parts of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, the Ferghana Valley is home to 20 percent of Central Asia's entire population. The region has recently experienced increasing religious and ethnic tensions—the further danger being that instability in the valley could spread more widely throughout Central Asia. The Ferghana Valley project of the Council on Foreign Relations' Center for Preventive Action (CPA) has produced this report as the fourth volume in its series of Preventive Action Reports. The project and the book were sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations and The Century Foundation. The book is also Volume 4 of the Preventive Action Reports.
    Book by Nancy Lubin and Barnett R. Rubin December 29, 1999 Center for Preventive Action
  • Nigeria
    Stabilizing Nigeria
    Nigeria poses one of the globe's greatest challenges and risks. It is Africa's most populous country and a major exporter of oil and potentially of natural gas, but its people's efforts to realize their potential have been frustrated by internal conflicts and misrule. The country was nearly torn apart by a secession movement and civil war during 1967-70. Recent crises, set off by the annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election, once again raise the specter of internal conflict. The current military regime's carefully controlled political transition plan and intermittent economic reforms do not confront the real problems facing the country and may in fact aggravate them. To investigate the degree of danger and consider various strategies to meet it, the Council on Foreign Relations' Center for Preventive Action (CPA) established a working group on Nigeria. This volume, the third in the CPA series of Preventive Action Reports, presents the group's findings and recommendations. It advocates a strategy of graduated pressure, including some sanctions, incentives in response to positive change, clearer communication of policy goals to the Nigerian government and public, and long-term engagement with Nigerian civil society, that will provide the basic underpinning for any genuine transition. A Council on Foreign Relations Book
    Book by Barnett R. Rubin, Pearl T. Robinson and Peter M. Lewis January 1, 1998 Center for Preventive Action
  • Conflict Prevention
    Cases and Strategies for Preventive Action
    Read an excerpt of Cases and Strategies for Preventive Action. In 1996, there were violent intrastate conflicts in ninety countries around the world. Governments, international organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and scholars continue to investigate how these deadly conflicts can be prevented. In order to assess what has been learned about conflict prevention and encourage further examination of cases and strategies, the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) of the Council on Foreign Relations convenes an annual conference. CPA's December 1996 Conference on Preventive Action examined three regions where CPA has programs—Nigeria, the Great Lakes region of Central Africa, and the South Balkans—and three tools of prevention—religion, economic sanctions and incentives, and small weapons disarmament. This conference volume is the second book in CPA's series of Preventive Action Reports. It uses CPA's case studies to examine the effectiveness of the tools of preventive action, and draws on comparative studies to guide the analysis of the case studies. Included: Edward J. Laurance of the Monterey Institute of International Studies on small weapons disarmament; David Cortright of the Fourth Freedom Forum and George Lopez of the Kroc Institute of International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame, on the use of economic sanctions and incentives; Reverend Donald Shriver of Union Theological Seminary on religion and violence prevention; Steven Burg of Brandeis University on the South Balkans; Michael Lund of Creative Associates International on Burundi and the Great Lakes region of Central Africa; and Peter Lewis of American University on Nigeria. Download Cases and Strategies for Preventive Action's Appendices: Appendix A [PDF] Appendix B [PDF] Appendix C [PDF] A Council on Foreign Relations Book
    Book by Barnett R. Rubin January 1, 1998 Center for Preventive Action
  • Conflict Prevention
    The World and Yugoslavia's Wars
    Read an excerpt of The World and Yugoslavia's Wars. What role did outside powers play in the dissolution of Yugoslavia and in the wars that wracked that once-stable country? Why did the victors in the Cold War and the 1991 Gulf War not act earlier to stop the slaughter? What might be the implications for other situations of communal conflict given the international community's failure to take timely action when war enveloped Bosnia? What might be the implications of Yugoslavia's wars for future peacekeeping and peacemaking by the United Nations and by NATO? And what can outside powers do to heal the real and imagined wounds of war? A Council on Foreign Relations Book
    Book by Richard H. Ullman January 1, 1997
  • Conflict Prevention
    Toward Comprehensive Peace in Southeast Europe
    While the Dayton agreement on Bosnia-Herzegovina has moved that troubled region toward peace, it could not eliminate all the dangers precipitated by the breakup of Yugoslavia. The South Balkans—Kosovo, Macedonia, Albania—are beset by conflicts that have the potential to destabilize the region and to draw NATO members or other states into the fray. This report, the first in a series on conflict prevention by the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations, presents recommendations to avert the spread of the ex-Yugoslav conflict into the South Balkans and to create a more enduring framework for peace and security in the region. The report was written by members of the CPA South Balkans Working Group, which visited the region and met with officials, nongovernmental organizations, and community leaders as part of its field mission. It includes a section on the historical background of the conflict written by Steven L. Burg, as well as an appendix by Victor A. Friedman, which gives further insight into the complex issues surrounding ethnic and other identities in the Balkans and evaluates some previous efforts at conflict prevention by the international community. A Council on Foreign Relations Book
    Book by Barnett R. Rubin January 1, 1996 Center for Preventive Action
  • China
    Managing the Taiwan Issue
    One of the highest national security priorities of the United States must be to help reduce tensions over the Taiwan issue. Domestic political trends in the People's Republic of China and Taiwan as well as political currents in the United States and exacerbating competing national interests to threaten the equilibrium that has been maintained for almost two decades. Taiwan is seeking greater international recognition and pursuing policies that the P.R.C perceives as "creeping independence" and views with deep emotion and hostility. This tension is unsettling to all Asian and Pacific nations, and it could erupt into war between the P.R.C. and Taiwan. Avoiding such an explosive breach of this relationship, and keeping the tensions it generates from overwhelming other U.S. vital interests in the region, is of critical importance to the United States. This report—the result of an expert bipartisan task force including high-ranking military officers, business leaders, and foreign policy experts—considers a number of important trends that are shaping the Sino-American-Taiwan relationship, evaluates U.S. interests in this relationship, and arrives at a set of recommendations for the United States concerning how it should define its priorities and assert its interests with respect to this potentially volatile situation in the Taiwan Strait.
    Task Force Report by Elizabeth C. Economy January 24, 1995
  • Diplomacy and International Institutions
    Conflicts Unending
    Richard N. Haass, senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs, National Security Council, argues that many regional conflicts are simply not ripe for solution and that international mediators who set out to accomplish less are likely to accomplish more. Despite the ingrained American impulse to push directly for solutions, notes Haass, U.S. diplomats should proceed indirectly, concentrating on confidence-building measures that promote regional stability and preparing for more ambitious diplomacy that will succeed only when the time is ripe. Examining five long-running regional disputes--Greece and Turkey, India and Pakistan, South African whites and blacks, Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland, Arabs and Israelis--Haass explores possible solutions in each case, explains why they have remained beyond reach, and recommends steps the U.S. can take to promote the "ripeness" that is the central metaphor of this thought-provoking study.
    Book by Richard Haass March 11, 1990