Defense and Security

Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament

  • Politics and Government
    Killer Amendments Die
    The New START Treaty made it through the weekend intact. Opponents offered two so-called killer amendments, and both failed to get fifty-one votes. (A treaty needs sixty-seven votes to pass the Senate; amendments to a treaty need only a majority.) The bad news for the White House is that one of the killer amendments received thirty-seven votes. If treaty opponents can hold those votes, then New START is dead. That is a big if, of course. Senators have been known to use their votes on amendments to give themselves leverage with the White House on other issues or to provide political cover for themselves on a final vote. Sens. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Jon Kyl (R-AZ) both have officially come out against New START. McConnell says the treaty could constrain U.S. missile defense and that its verification requirements are too weak. And he doesn’t like having the calendar used to force a vote—“rushing it right before Christmas, it strikes me as trying to jam us.” McConnell’s and Kyl’s opposition could be pivotal. They are, after all, the number one and two figures in the Senate Republican leadership. They have some clout to reel back Republican senators leaning toward a “yes” vote. Peter Baker notes in the New York Times that no arms control treaty has ever passed “without the support of the Senate minority leader.” Administration officials would no doubt observe that is like saying no major league baseball team has ever come back after being down three-games-to-none in the playoffs. It is true until it isn’t. Today the Senate meets in closed session to discuss classified intelligence about New START. Such sessions may or may not provide senators with genuinely new information. But they can provide them with a reason (or excuse) to take a position—or to change one already taken. On that score, the White House couldn’t have liked reading what Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) told POLITICO. I announced my support for the treaty a week ago based on the work I’ve done on it in the Armed Services Committee but we’re having a classified briefing [Monday] afternoon and it’s always possible I could learn something new from that, that would cause me to change my mind. The next big step is a cloture vote tomorrow. Sens. Richard Lugar (R-IN) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) say they will vote for cloture. So if Democrats stick together they will muster the sixty votes needed to force a vote on Wednesday. Between now and then expect the rhetoric to heat up. Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid threw some “chin music” at treaty opponents this weekend, suggesting that they want the bad guys to win. You either want to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists or you don’t. Treaty opponents will certainly return the rhetorical favor. One senator to watch will be John McCain (R-AZ). He voted last week to begin debate on New START, but in a floor speech on Thursday he lambasted Russian leaders: How in the world are we going to trust them to adhere to a treaty? When we consider the crimes and abuses of this Russian government, it’s hard to believe this government shares our deepest values. That doesn’t sound like someone about to give New START a thumb’s up. Which way will the vote likely go? The complaints coming from anti-treaty forces about being rushed suggest they are losing. Presumably a “rushed” vote doesn’t bother you if the outcome is going your way. But the outcome is always up in the air on on close votes where senators are feeling intense pressure to hew to a party line. As the saying goes, those who are talking don’t know, and those who know aren’t talking. (Photo: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leaves a meeting on Capitol Hill about New START in November. Jim Young / courtesy Reuters).
  • Defense and Security
    The World Next Week
    The podcast for the The World Next Week is up. Bob McMahon and I sat down to talk about the U.N. Security Council’s upcoming debate of its Afghanistan mission; the Obama administration’s Afghan strategy review; the congressional budget debates; and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson’s visit to North Korea. [audio: http://www.cfr.org/content/publications/media/podcast/2010/20101217_TWNW.mp3] The highlights: Although the UN Security Council will be discussing the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission, which it renewed for a year in October, the real action on Afghanistan continues to lie with NATO and Washington. The Obama administration sees "fragile" progress in Afghanistan, but the White House’s strategy for building a stable and effective Afghan government is unclear. The outcome of the sparring on Capitol Hill over the FY11 federal budget remains up in the air, and the fighting could derail action on the New START Treaty. Tensions remain high on the Korean peninsula as analysts wonder whether Seoul will continue to turn the other cheek in the face of repeated provocations by Pyongyang. Bob and I join a host of commentators and news outlets discussing these issues. The Guardian reflects on the direction U.S. policy in Afghanistan may take following the loss of Special Representative Richard Holbrooke, while NPR outlines the complex message the Obama administration is trying to convey with its strategy review.  The Hill covers the battle over earmarks in the omnibus spending bill. The Washington Post outlines Richardson’s goals for his North Korea trip and touches on the governor’s impressive negotiating history. (Photo: Governor Richardson is greeted by a North Korean official upon his arrival. Kyodo Kyodo / courtesy Reuters).
  • Politics and Government
    Senator Kyl’s Line in the Sand
    Just as the prospects for the New START Treaty started to look good, they no longer do.  Josh Rogin reports that Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) just drew a line in the sand: Kyl said Tuesday he still doesn’t think there’s enough time to complete work on the treaty this year and that he will try to defeat the treaty if it comes up during the lame duck session. “I let the majority leader know that’s an issue for a lot of my colleagues,” Kyl told reporters Tuesday. “And if he does bring it up, I will work very hard to achieve that result, namely that the treaty fails. We will see in the next ten days whether Senator Kyl is William Travis at the Alamo or Gen. Anthony McAullife at the Battle of the Bulge. The other interesting  news in Josh’s post is that New START opponents may try to amend the treaty as a way to kill it.  Their target will be the treaty’s preamble, which notes that an interrelationship exists between offensive and defensive weapons.  Although this is a factual statement and not a constraint, some treaty opponents argue that the language limits the U.S. ability to build missile defenses.  Opponents calculate that an amended preamble would be unacceptable to the Russians, thereby requiring new negotiations or prompting Moscow to walk away from the treaty entirely. Such a “killer amendment” could be very difficult for the White House to fend off during a lame-duck session.  The White House has insisted all along that the preamble is not binding.  If that is the case, opponents will argue, why would anyone object to deleting the language about defensive arms or adding new language unambiguously asserting the U.S. right to build missile defenses as it sees fit?  The White House thought it could avoid this problem because Senate procedure traditionally forbid amendments to preambles.  But the Senate parliamentarian recently ruled that there was no basis for this rule.  So amendments are welcome. The Senate has killed more than forty treaties over the past 200 years under the guise of improving them.  The first treaty consigned to the ash heap of history in this fashion was the King-Hawkesbury Convention with Great Britain in 1803.  (Don’t ask.)  The best-known use of killer amendments came during the debate over the Treaty of Versailles, when Sen. Henry Cabot Lodge decided that the best strategy to kill Woodrow Wilson’s handiwork was to “proceed… by way of amendment and reservation.” Sometimes the best strategy in politics is not to confront your opponent head on but to offer to help him. (Photo: Ria Novosti / courtesy Reuters)
  • Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
    Dealing Directly with North Korea
    With tensions on the Korean peninsula continuing to arouse U.S. concern, expert Leon Sigal calls for the United States and South Korea to support a peace process and political and economic engagement with North Korea.
  • Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
    North Korea-Iran Nuclear Cooperation
    WikiLeaks’ cables on North Korea’s missile sales to Iran have raised new concerns about the country’s proliferation activities. Expert Jeffrey Lewis says Pyongyang’s procurement networks pose the biggest threat, and recommends the international community strengthen interdiction measures.
  • Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
    TWE Quick Takes: Saddam Hussein, New START and More
    Seven years ago today soldiers in the 1st Brigade Combat Team of the 4th Infantry Division pulled Saddam Hussein from a hole underneath a two-room mud shack on a sheep farm in the town of ad-Dawr, Iraq.  Hussein had an AK-47, some chocolate, and $750,000 in cash when he was caught.  In the words of Maj. Gen. Ray Odierno, “he was caught like a rat.” In other developments over the weekend. 1.  New START may get passed before the lame-duck session of Congress ends.  Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) have declared their support for New START, and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) says Senate approval is “very close.” [The Senate first has to pass the legislation extending the Bush tax cuts and then pass the legislation funding the government for the rest of the year.  That means that the lame-duck session will have to be extended beyond this Friday, the 17th, to permit time for floor debate and a vote. President Obama says he is willing to delay his vacation to ensure a vote. 2.  John Cassidy uses his review in the New Yorker of several new books on China to provide a useful historical reminder that America’s embrace of open global markets came only after we became industrial titans who could out compete our rivals.  Before that we liked high tariffs and large-scale government intervention in the economy.  Our current zeal for entrepreneurial spirit tends to forget that entrepreneurs historically have succeeded in the United States not in spite of government but in good part because of government.  The big policy question for us today is what should the 21st century equivalent of the Central Pacific and Union Pacific railroads, the Tennessee Valley Authority, or ARPANET be? 3.  In yesterday’s Washington Post the development economist William Easterly criticized the work of celebrity activists.  Normally I would pass such an article right by, but since I posted on celebrity activists not once but twice last week, I gave it a read.  Easterly levies two main criticisms, neither of which seems particularly compelling.  The first is that Bono and other celebrity activists unlike his hero, John Lennon, seldom challenge political power.  It is not clear, however, why denouncing policymakers is preferable to lobbying them.  Lennon was a pop culture icon, but the impact of his activism was, to be nice about it, minimal.  Easterly’s second criticism is that Bono (and presumably other celebrity activists) doesn’t have the standing to participate in the policy debate. But why should we pay attention to Bono’s or Jolie’s expertise on Africa, any more than we would ask them for guidance on the proper monetary policy for the Federal Reserve? This “credentialism” leaves me cold.  My preference is to analyze the merits of what people propose rather than to worry about their backgrounds.  The irony here is that Easterly admits that the specific policies Bono advocates “are fine moves as far as they go.” 4.  My colleague Stephen Sestanovich just posted a piece taking issue with the triumphalism that has infected much of the coverage of what the WikiLeaks saga says about American diplomacy.  Steve has read and written his fair share of cables.  (I don’t know that any of them have leaked).  He was ambassador-at-large and special adviser to the secretary of state for policy toward the states of the former Soviet Union. (Photo:  Saddam Hussein pauses in Sunday Dec. 14, 2003.  US Military via APTN / AP Photo).
  • Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
    Iran Nuclear Talks: A Widening Chasm
    Talks between Iran and the P5+1 ended with plans to meet in Istanbul next month, but the differences between the two sides suggest a long road ahead dotted with meetings that don’t go very far, says Iran expert Robin Wright.
  • Defense and Security
    TWE Quick Takes
    There’s no Friday File this week. The next few days will be devoted to eating turkey and watching football. Three things before I head off: 1. My good friend and frequent co-author, Ivo Daalder, now the U.S. Ambassador to NATO, spoke on Monday about the outcome of NATO’s Lisbon Summit. He reviews the three main strategic components of NATO’s new Strategic Concept and describes how what he calls “NATO 3.0” differs from versions 1.0 and 2.0. 2. Yesterday I hosted a media call on the New Start Treaty with my colleagues Kay King, Vice President for Washington Initiatives, and Micah Zenko, Fellow for Conflict Prevention at CFR’s Center for Preventive Action. Kay and Micah explore the politics of the treaty debate and the consequences of its passage or defeat. 3. The Wall Street Journal reports that grateful people are healthier and happier. So find someone and say thanks. Happy Thanksgiving! (Photo: President Obama pardons "Courage,"  The National Thanksgiving Turkey in 2009. Jason Reed/courtesy Reuters).
  • Politics and Government
    Why Senate Republicans Won’t Blink First
    I speculated yesterday on why the White House opted for a showdown on the New START Treaty when it lacks the 67 votes needed for victory.  Here are ten reasons why the Republicans won’t blink first: Principle.  Some Republican senators think that New START is a legitimately bad treaty that gives too much away to the Russians. Elections matter.  If you believe that November 2 was a repudiation Obama’s agenda, why support one of his leading foreign policy priorities? President Obama will blink first. The president has drawn lines in the sand before on issues such as Israeli settlements and the public option in health care only to change his mind later.  The best predictor of future performance is past performance. Opposing the treaty has no political downside. To quote Democratic strategist James Carville, “Most people don’t really give a pig’s patootie about a nuclear arms deal with Russia.” Voters don’t punish lawmakers for issues they don’t know or care about it.  Voters who do care about New START aren’t going to pull the lever for Republicans anyway. Opposing the treaty has a political upside. The Republican base is spoiling for a fight, it doubts the wisdom of arms control, and it will likely remember the names of lawmakers who blinked at the first sign of pressure from the White House. A basic law of congressional life:  When in doubt make sure you are on what your constituents regard as the “right” side of an issue. Skepticism about the supposed harmful geopolitical consequences of defeating New START. Treaty supporters are predicting all matters of harm if New START goes kaput.  But administrations always say the sky will fall if their opponents succeed.  Will U.S.-Russian relations really turn on the fate of what even many proponents agree is a modest treaty? Republican senators-elect want to be heard on New START.  The people spoke on November 2.  Why let an arbitrary deadline dictate the pace of a debate over a treaty that will become “the supreme law of the land”?  Why not let the new voices that American elected at the polls have the opportunity to carry their message to Washington? The treaty fight can be used against the president politically.  The economy is sputtering, unemployment is nearly in double digits, and the White House’s top priority is passing an arms control treaty? Skaggs’s Law applies—Or the squeaky wheel gets the grease.  Antitreaty Republicans oppose the treaty with far more passion than protreaty Republicans support it.  That means something.  As former Representative David Skaggs (D-Colo.) noted about life on Capitol Hill, "When there are a few people who will die for the issue, and nobody else gets anywhere close to that, they can have their way." Political face—Or what political scientists call audience costs. The spat between the White House and Senate Republicans is now public.  The news media and the blogosphere are itching to declare winners and losers.  If President Obama gets his way, the political momentum shifts.  The story line as 2011 dawns will be that the president has his mojo back.  That’s not what Republicans had in mind on the morning of November 3. Does this mean that President Obama can’t possibly win?  No.  But winning will require doling out a lot of goodies.  Some Republican senators say they are open to being “persuaded.” These Republicans will be watching their fellow fence-sitters.  After all, there is safety in numbers. So if Republican senators do blink during the lame-duck session, a lot of them will do so at once.  That means a comfortable victory for the White House and the inevitable blog posts wondering why the “experts” failed to understand the power of the presidency to bring the Senate to heel. (Photo: Jonathan Ernst/courtesy Reuters)
  • Politics and Government
    Obama’s Gamble
    The White House can count well as anyone else.  Passing the New START Treaty during the lame-duck session means holding all fifty-eight Senate Democrats and picking up nine Republican votes.  But only one Senate Republican, Dick Lugar, is publicly committed to voting yes. And at least one Democratic Senator, Joe Manchin of West Virginia, is sitting on the fence.  That is not encouraging news. Presidents usually want to know the answer is yes before they ask the question. So why the gamble against long odds? I can think of at least five calculations driving White House thinking: 1. If not now, when? Once the new Senate convenes in January, President Obama will need fourteen Republican votes. The chances of success may be questionable now, but they will more questionable later. 2. Confidence that the treaty’s merits—and fears about the consequences of its defeat—will carry the day. The public might rally behind the White House as news coverage highlights the fact that New START has been endorsed by a who’s who of military leaders and foreign policy luminaries, including Republican grandees such as Henry Kissinger, Jim Baker, and Brent Scowcroft, and that the treaty’s defeat could hurt U.S.-Russian relations and efforts to keep Iran from going nuclear. 3. New START is not a core partisan issue, so Republican opposition is not rock solid. More than enough Republican senators would vote for New START if it were a secret ballot.  Demanding a vote puts pressure on Republicans and increases the chances that their united front will crack. 4. A treaty fight could shift the political momentum. November has been a tough month for Obama.   A showdown over START could be a game changer if voters conclude that Senate Republicans are more interested in undermining Obama than promoting the national interest. 5. Better to go down swinging than looking. New START’s chances of passing may be iffy regardless of when the president pushes for passage.  But sitting idly by while a top administration priority dies will only fuel talk of a feckless president.  Trying and losing beats just losing. In my next post I’ll look at the Top Ten reasons Republicans won’t blink first. (Photo: President Obama hosts a meeting to discuss the New START Treaty at the White House.  Larry Downing/courtesy Reuters).
  • Politics and Government
    The Gauntlet Is Thrown Down
    Walking by Westminster this morning I was reminded of the grandeur of democracy.  Watching the battle back in Washington over the New START Treaty, I am reminded that democratic practice is often more bare knuckled than grand. The White House has thrown down the gauntlet on the New Start Treaty, demanding a vote before the lame-duck session ends.  Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went to Capitol Hill yesterday to make the case for a vote.  Vice President Joe Biden has organized a senior-level pow-wow at the White House today that will include not just administration heavyweights like Secretary Clinton and Senate powers like John Kerry but also a list of eminence grises from past administrations, Democratic and Republican alike.  President Obama is expected to drop by before he heads off to Lisbon for the NATO Summit. The normally cautious Richard Lugar, ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has thrown his lot in with the administration.  He publicly chewed out his fellow Senate Republicans yesterday, accusing them of ducking the issue.  And Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says he will make time on the Senate calendar for a vote. So the battle lines are drawn.  The administration is all in. Democrats who have longed for Obama to show some feistiness no doubt are pleased that he is channeling Woodrow Wilson, who said in response to Senate opposition to a treaty he had negotiated, "I consent to nothing.  The Senate must take its medicine." The problem is votes.  The White House doesn’t have them.  Reaching the magic 67-vote mark requires picking up eight Republican votes today, and nine once Republican Mark Kirk is seated sometime over the next two weeks.  That assumes of course that the Democrats hold together, which may be a courageous assumption.  Republican senators on the fence about the treaty will face pressure from some quarters of their party to vote no, and little pressure to vote yes. So while the Senate might vote during the lame-duck session, the outcome could be different from what the administration wants.  Just recall the fate of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The lesson is that in a government of co-equal branches the Senate doesn’t have to take the president’s medicine. President Wilson learned that the hard way.  Here’s some historical irony for you.  Tomorrow marks the 91st anniversary of the Senate’s rejection of the Treaty of Versailles.
  • Congresses and Parliaments
    Guest Post: Congressional Dysfunction and New START
    My colleague Kay King has a new Council Special Report out on Congress and National Security. The report examines the sources and consequences of Congress’s surging partisanship, and it offers some recommendations for procedural changes Congress could and should adopt to lessen the partisan vitriol. When the House and Senate convene in January, lawmakers will decide the rules that will govern their operations. Some junior Democratic senators are already pushing for significant changes in Senate operations. Kay knows a thing or two about Congress. She worked as a senior legislative assistant for foreign and defense policy for Senator Joe Biden, and she served as a deputy assistant secretary of state for legislative affairs during the Clinton administration. Kay has graciously agreed to offer her thoughts about the fate of foreign policy in the current lame-duck Senate. With less than three weeks to complete its work and with the nation’s focus on deficit reduction, job creation, and tax relief (not to mention the imperative to fund government operations for the next year), the prospects for the 111th Congress taking up foreign policy issues in the lame-duck session have never been good. But prospects dimmed considerably yesterday with the news that the pending strategic arms reduction treaty – or New START as it is called – hit a snag in the Senate because some lawmakers believe there is insufficient time to resolve outstanding treaty-related issues. Of course, when an issue is important enough, the Senate can make the time to deliberate on it. But, as the gridlock of the last two years has demonstrated, lawmakers often use the rules to obstruct and delay action in order to advance their own agendas on domestic and international issues. In the aftermath of the mid-term elections, the American electorate had hoped that their anger would lead lawmakers to recommit themselves to bipartisanship and compromise. The delay with the New START treaty is an early indicator, however, that the Senate plans to pick up where it left off in October, continuing business as usual into the 112th Congress by allowing the exploitation of congressional rules that results in the very stalemate that has so angered voters. Postponement of a vote on the treaty, if it holds, would be regrettable for both substantive and process reasons. As a treaty proponent, I believe it would delay the further reduction of nuclear weapons by Russia and the United States and hinder the restoration of inspection and verification measures that ended with the expiration of the START I Treaty in December 2009. It would also undercut the U.S.-Russia relationship at a time when Moscow’s help in Afghanistan as well as with slowing Iran’s nuclear progress is of great consequence. But whatever one thinks about the treaty’s merits (or lack thereof), Senate failure to perform its constitutional advice-and-consent role in a timely and responsible manner diminishes the Senate as an institution. Inaction plays into the hands of critics who maintain that the gridlock resulting from abuse of such Senate rules, practices, and procedures as holds on presidential nominees and filibusters on non-controversial bills renders the institution dysfunctional. The stalemate also prompts both allies and adversaries to question how a world power with a dysfunctional national legislature can continue to lead on the global stage. Of course, the offending Senate rules, practices, and procedures are nothing new. What is new is the extent to which the use of politically motivated tactics to advance partisan or personal objectives over national interests has increased in the last two decades. The impact has been particularly adverse on U.S. diplomacy and development initiatives because the dysfunction pushes most foreign policy matters, short of crises, off the Senate agenda under the pretext that more pressing domestic issues are lined up. When a single lawmaker can tie the Senate in knots with a filibuster on a widely supported measure to extend unemployment benefits, other business such as treaties, not to mention legislation to guide foreign assistance programs, get crowded out. In fact, Congress has failed for twenty-five years to pass a comprehensive bill to authorize foreign assistance programs and only sporadically passes bills to authorize operations at the State Department. This failure to adequately support diplomacy and development initiatives ultimately places a greater burden on the military and defense budgets. With its leadership’s apparent reluctance to schedule floor time for New START, the Senate appears to be on a path toward pushing another important national security measure off into the indefinite future. It’s puzzling that a great institution that has been so maligned in recent months for its obstruction and delay would not seize the opportunity to prove its critics wrong by performing its constitutional advice-and-consent role on an important treaty in a timely, bipartisan fashion. It is not as if the Senate had insufficient time to review and deliberate on the treaty. It was signed by the United States and Russia in early April and submitted to the Senate for its advice and consent on May 13 – more than six months ago. Since then, the Senate has performed its constitutional role with great care and deliberation, hosting more than twenty hearings and briefings with numerous administration officials. The chairman and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC), which has jurisdiction over the treaty, worked with colleagues to address their concerns about missile defenses, tactical nuclear weapons, verification and inspection measures, and imbalances in reductions. This effort resulted in a resolution of ratification with ten conditions, three understandings, and thirteen declarations that garnered a favorable bipartisan vote of  fourteen to four in the SFRC on September 16. The treaty was placed on the Executive Calendar for consideration by the full Senate on October 1. Interestingly, the last arms control treaty that was approved by the Senate – the 2002 Moscow Treaty received a vote by the full chamber within a month of its committee approval. This fall, however, a few lawmakers, taking full advantage of the Senate rules and well within their rights, decided to delay a vote on New START in order to extract concessions from the executive branch. Now that the administration has complied with their requests, one can only wonder what the real motive is for the continued delay. Such inability or reluctance to act on a thoroughly vetted treaty raises questions about the Senate’s institutional efficacy. What does it say about the relevance of committees if the combined decades of experience and expertise of the chair and ranking member of the committee of jurisdiction that produced a favorable bipartisan committee vote are not enough to convince the Senate leadership that it is time to move on the treaty? What does it tell the electorate about the value of expertise if the Senate leadership chooses to delay consideration of the treaty until the 112th Congress when such a move will result in the loss of the collected expertise of the current Senate? Not only will delay require the expenditure of precious time to educate seventeen (or eighteen depending on the outcome of the Alaska vote count) new senators about complicated arms control issues, it will also mean revisiting the treaty in committee and educating the minimum of three new senators who will join the SFRC in January. What does it convey about the importance of U.S. national security (including renewed access to Russian missile sites) if the treaty is pushed off to an uncertain future – one that is likely to be so focused on the domestic issues raised by voters in the 2010 elections that the treaty will likely get crowded off the Senate schedule indefinitely or be subjected to new demands that move the goal posts for a vote further down the field? The answers are not encouraging, although there are some signs that change may be on the way. As Jim Lindsay mentioned, the good news is that several junior senators have been working on proposals to revise Senate rules, practices, and procedures, taking aim first at the filibuster that allows a single Senator to prevent action on a measure. Efforts are also under way in the Senate to change the “hold” practice – that is, allowing a single lawmaker to take legislation or a presidential nominee hostage by threatening to filibuster if desired action – often on an unrelated matter - is not taken. These initiatives promise to ease gridlock and, if combined with reforms to committees and measures to increase expertise in both chambers, congressional performance will improve significantly. For example, a reduction in the number of committee assignments for each lawmaker will provide them with more time to become expert on the matters before the committees on which they serve. Restoring committees to their former roles as the primary centers of expertise within their jurisdictions and providing them with increased non-partisan staff will strengthen expertise. All of these reforms will have to be coupled with a sincere effort by lawmakers to seek and accept compromise on a bipartisan basis. In the meantime, before the much maligned 111th Congress ends, the Senate has a last opportunity to prove its critics wrong by voting on the New START treaty and performing like the vital, dynamic legislative body that the framers of the Constitution envisioned. (Photo: Presidents Obama and Medvedev sign the New START Treaty at Prague Castle. Jason Reed/courtesy Reuters)
  • United States
    U.S. Nukes in Europe Unnecessary
    As NATO prepares for this weekend’s summit, the U.S. should consider removing its nuclear weapons from Europe, as its tactical nuclear umbrella over NATO is no longer vital to European security. Russia also should limit its nuclear arsenal, says CFR’s Micah Zenko.
  • Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
    The Lame-Duck Congress Returns
    They’re back!  Members of Congress return to work today for their lame-duck session.  They certainly don’t lack for things to do.  How much they will get done over the next several weeks is anyone’s guess.  But expect a lot of finger pointing while they do. Domestic issues will dominate the agenda.  Congress has yet to pass any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, even though the fiscal year began on October 1.  The Bush tax cuts and the estate tax—or “death tax” if you prefer—will revert back to the higher rates of 2000 unless Congress acts otherwise.  The extension of federal unemployment benefits for those who have been unemployed for at least six months will expire on November 30  unless Congress votes to extend them.  All are tough issues with potentially significant political consequences for both parties. The major foreign policy issue is the New START Treaty.  The White House hopes that the Senate will pass the resolution of ratification before adjourning.  President Obama told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev over the weekend that he was committed to getting the treaty done during the lame-duck session. Today’s Washington Post op-ed by Hillary Clinton and Robert Gates is part of the White House effort to push the Senate to act.  The two secretaries make the standard arguments in favor of the treaty:  it will reduce the number of deployed nuclear weapons, reinstate the verification regime that lapsed last December when the START I Treaty expired; set the stage for deeper reductions; and further a “reset” of relations with Russia. Lurking behind the arms control math is the political math.  If the White House can’t get 67 votes for New START in the lame-duck Senate, its task will get only harder when the new Senate takes office in January.  Several of the senators-elect have already signaled their opposition to the treaty.  As it is, the task of getting 67 Republican votes is tougher today than it was two weeks ago.  Republican Mark Kirk won President Obama’s old Senate seat.  Because he will be filling out the remainder of Obama’s term he is scheduled to take office on November 23. I’ll discuss the treaty’s merits should we get a vote.  The chances that I will be writing that post any time soon look iffy.  Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who voted to move the treaty out of the Foreign Relations Committee, prefers to delay any vote until next year (ED: or maybe not). The Senate Republican Policy Committee also argues for delay. And Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell does not appear eager to vote any time soon.  Ardent opponents of New START, such as Senators Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and James Inhofe (R-Okla.),  are undoubtedly working to keep McConnell in the “no” column. The pivotal Republican player on New START, though, is Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.). His leading role in defeating the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty in 1999 gives him considerable credibility among Republicans on arms control issues. He can provide cover to senators who want to vote for the treaty. He is not axiomatically opposed to New Start; he has called it “relatively benign.” Kyl has been using his vote on New START as leverage to pressure the White House into spending more on nuclear force modernization.  So far the administration has been willing to play ball.  It recently offered to add $4.1 billion in modernization funding on top of an additional $10 billion it has already pledged to spend over 10 years. Only Kyl knows where he will come down after weighing internal Republican pressures, his own views of the treaty’s merits, the likelihood that the administration will walk away from its offer on nuclear modernization if New START does not pass before year’s end, and the potential political and strategic consequences of leaving the treaty to die.  But even if Kyl gives the treaty his blessing, the tremendous press of domestic issues on the agenda could still push New START to the sidelines. (Photo: Molly Riley/courtesy Reuters)
  • Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
    Foreign Policy and the 2010 Midterms: New START and Arms Control
    A new arms control agreement with Russia has met political opposition in the U.S. Senate, and some analysts believe its fate is tied to the outcome of the 2010 midterm elections. This Backgrounder examines the Senate debate.