Defense and Security

Homeland Security

  • Homeland Security
    Targets for Terrorism: Ground Transportation
    An overview of ground transportation systems and their vulnerability to terrorist attacks.
  • Homeland Security
    Testimony before the House Subcommittee on Commerce, Trade, and Consumer Protection, and the Committee on Energy and Commerce
    Chairman Stearns, Ranking Member Schakowsky, thank you for the opportunity to participate in this hearing on H.R. 5337, the “Reform of National Security Reviews of Foreign Direct Investments Act.” H.R. 5337 would establish in statute the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States and establish procedures “to ensure national security while promoting foreign investment.” In my remarks, I want to make clear that I am speaking for myself; the Council on Foreign Relations is a non-partisan think tank that does not take positions on issues.   The Economic and Global Power of the United States Among developed economies, the United States has performed uniquely well in the past decade. The key characteristic of this outstanding growth has been a post-1995 acceleration in U.S. productivity—that summary measure indicates the ability of an economy to produce the same goods more cheaply, generate a greater standard of living than in the past from the same people, factories, and equipment, and to use innovation to produce different and higher-quality goods than in the past. In short, productivity is the single-best summary measure of the overall long-term performance of an economy and the United States stands out in recent years. One ingredient in this recipe for success has been openness to global trade in goods, services, and capital. There is a growing body of economic research that documents the beneficial dynamics of open trade. For example, those firms that are engaged in global markets are more productive than their domestically-oriented counterparts. An example of the dynamic benefits of open trade is in information technology hardware. As noted, the United States experienced a surge in productivity growth after 1995 (and perhaps again recently). A substantial factor was the increasing sophistication of IT hardware. One version of this story credits clever engineers in the selfless pursuit of Moore’s law. But it is also the case that IT hardware is among the most global and competitive industries, and global markets reward entrepreneurial zeal as much as engineering skills. Moreover, policy supported these dynamics. The Declaration on Trade in Information Technology Products (ITA) from the 1996 Singapore Ministerial Conference was the foundation for reduced barriers to trade in IT hardware. A related strength of the United States is its sophisticated, deep, and specialized financial markets. Financial markets are the central nervous system of a market economy, serving to collect and transmit important information, guide capital to its most productive use, and enhance the overall coordination of firms, households, and governments. One particular aspect of executing these functions is financing mergers and acquisitions (M&A). These transactions generate economic value. The bids by new owners raise the overall return to existing shareholders, generating additional capital market funds. At the same time, new ownership can bid more as a result of replacing ineffective management, taking advantage of beneficial complementarities (“synergies”) with their existing business model, or otherwise raising the productivity of the purchased firms’ capital, technologies, and labor skills. In short, the new firm is more productive than the old—in this way, mergers and acquisitions are one manifestation of the role of competitive financial markets in efficiently allocating national capital. As capital markets have become global in scope, so has M&A (along with “ greenfield” investments by U.S. firms abroad and overseas investors in the United States). Currently, U.S. subsidiaries of companies based outside the United States have over 5 million employees and pay compensation of over $300 billion each year, or about $60,000 per employee. The vast bulk of these investments have come from countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, over 90 percent) and a small minority is undertaken by firms with government control (2 percent). In short, a strong economy is part of national security and open, global capital markets are a cornerstone of our strong economic future. Nevertheless, despite the fact that few cross-border transactions show risk of affecting security directly and few are undertaken by firms with government control, those situations do arise (and have arisen) in which security considerations overwhelm the financial desirability of a particular transaction. Thus, to meet overall objectives, it is essential to pair policies that support well-functioning, open capital markets with specific carve-outs for transactions that pose a security threat. Reform of CFIUS The topic of today’s hearing is reform of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and the process by which it accomplishes these needed carve-outs. As the Congress considers revisions to the CFIUS process, it is important to recognize that the current system has served the United States very well. To date, CFIUS has to a great extent simultaneously supported national security and economic growth. Thus, there would appear to be little merit in a wholesale rethinking of the CFIUS process. Nevertheless, some improvements are possible; by what criteria should proposed changes be judged? A Targeted Process. First, CFIUS should be a targeted process to identify those transactions that generate a legitimate national security concern without excessive and wasteful scrutiny of routine transactions. An important aspect of achieving this objective is preserving the voluntary nature of CFIUS filings. At present, participants to transactions have excellent incentives to seek CFIUS clearance: a safe harbor from future security scrutiny, mitigation or divestiture. This system avoids wasteful reviews of routine transactions and targets CFIUS efforts on achieving satisfactory reviews and investigations of problematic transactions. H.R. 5337 preserves this system. Predictability. Second, the CFIUS process should be predictable. That is, it would be transparent to market participants which transactions would merit scrutiny and review and how the security impact of the transaction would be evaluated. H.R. 5337 makes some improvements to the CFIUS process in this regard. It clarifies the “rules of the road” by making clear that if a transaction involves a foreign-government controlled firm, the transaction must be subjected to the investigation process. In addition, an investigation period may be extended by two-thirds vote of CFIUS, requires the signature of the Chair and Vice-Chair on decisions, and provides support for CFIUS by other agencies. The transparency of the process is improved by designating in statute CFIUS member agencies and improving the nature and regularity of reporting to Congress. One issue that arises in this regard is the organization of CFIUS in H.R. 5337, particularly the designation of Treasury as the Chair and Homeland Security as the Vice-Chair. With regard to the former, the contention is sometimes made that a “security” agency should lead CFIUS; a reciprocal concern being that with Treasury as the Chair, the process may have a commercial bias at the expense of national security. This concern strikes me as misplaced. Treasury is a member of the National Security Council, takes a lead role in the battle against terrorism, and otherwise has functions that mirror those of traditional security agencies. Moreover, in practice the role of the CFIUS Chair has largely been organizational and not operational. To the extent that Congress chose not to designate Treasury as Chair, it may be desirable to rotate the convening power among selected agencies. This strikes me as having a small cost in transparency, but one that Congress may deem to be acceptable. H.R. 5337 also designates Homeland Security to be the Vice-Chair of CFIUS, which raises the larger issue of the role of homeland security in national security reviews. A danger is setting a standard for national security that is either overly broad or indistinct. For example, drawing into the standard “critical infrastructure” as embodied in homeland security objectives could potentially include all transactions in the food supply chain. Similarly, definitions that include “economic security” are too broad and likely to generate uncertainty regarding investments. H.R. 5337 requires CFIUS to consider whether a transaction has a security-related impact on critical infrastructure, a specification that retains the correct focus—a security-related impact, not critical infrastructure per se. Put differently, I believe that homeland security should be seen as an integral part of the traditional focus on national security and not as a separate, new, or elevated consideration. From this perspective, the Department of Homeland Security has operational roles that contribute to national security. The Congress may wish to consider whether those roles are sufficiently broad and important to designate Homeland Security as the standing Vice-Chair of CFIUS. Confidentiality. A third criterion is that process would provide a high degree of confidentiality to secure proprietary business information and national security considerations. H.R. 5337 seeks an appropriate balance between the duty for congressional oversight and the importance of confidentiality and streamlined transactions. Flexibility. Fourth, the process should be flexible, providing arrangements that permit means to augment security or otherwise satisfy these criteria as part of the transaction itself. H.R. 5337 retains such flexibility by permitting CFIUS to negotiate mitigation agreements flexibly with firms involved in a covered transaction. The bill also makes improvements that may serve to build expertise and continuity of staff in this important area, by establishing tracking compliance with mitigation agreements that will accumulate knowledge of successful and unsuccessful approaches and by directing $10 million to CFIUS in the next few years. This may prove crucial as press reports indicate that the fraction of Treasury time and personnel devoted to the CFIUS process has risen dramatically recently. Timeliness. The final criterion is that the CFIUS process should be as timely as possible. Many observers have expressed support for the current timetables, particularly the ability to coordinate with (Hart-Scott-Rodino) anti-trust reviews. H.R. 5337 retains the 30-day review period, but also properly draws into the CFIUS process information from the Director of National Intelligence. It also mandates a 45-day investigation for all foreign-government controlled transactions, regardless of whether a genuine security risk is present. These features may require more time, but it is desirable to keep mandated extensions to the existing timetables a limited as possible. Larger Issues Looking past narrow evaluation of H.R. 5337, the topic of CFIUS reform legislation raises the potential for concern. Over time, administrations of both political parties have helped to establish a global rules-based system for open investment and free trade. This approach has supported U.S. economic success. This success is put at risk if new procedures are unclear, viewed as overly politicized or unnecessarily discriminate against foreign investment. Procedures of this sort would in themselves worsen the favorable investment climate. An even more problematic outcome would occur if other countries chose policies that provided reciprocal discriminatory treatment against U.S. firms. In this regard, three areas merit attention. First, it is useful to retain a targeted and clear definition of those transactions covered by CFIUS, and to focus on operational control of new technologies or sensitive locations. As noted earlier, definitions that include more vague references to “economic security” or those that include an overly-inclusive concept of “critical infrastructure” would likely be detrimental. Second, it is useful to keep review and investigation times to the minimum necessary to determine the evidence of a genuine national security threat. Third, it is important to avoid introducing overt political considerations into the process. Indeed, a threshold consideration is the degree to which it is desirable to legislate aspects of the policy at all. CFIUS has been successful in part because it was appropriately an administrative procedure. The greater the extent of legislated review, report, or decision-making, the greater the possibility of detrimental consequences. H.R. 5337 contains detailed reporting requirements on both specific covered transactions and CFIUS reviews in general. While not troubling, a further extension of these provisions raises concerns over politicization and confidentiality. Any lingering perception of politically-driven reviews raises the danger that other countries will use recent events in the United States as pretext for protectionist rules draped in the guise of national security. For example, press reports indicate that China will tighten screening of deals and impose new curbs on foreign acquisitions—setting up a ministry-level committee to review controlling stakes in strategic industries including steel and the manufacturing of equipment for shipbuilding and power generation. Any broader, global trend of this type would directly hurt U.S. investments abroad. Conclusion Mr. Chairman, as CFIUS reform is considered by Congress, it is important to recognize that it is possible to provide open global markets, strong economic growth, and national security. For the most part, these go hand in hand. For example, the Congressional Budget Office projects that over the next decade and one-half, current defense plans will require spending an average of $500 billion (adjusted for inflation), a peak increase of roughly 20 percent over current levels (adjusted for inflation) and above the peak of Cold War spending. Despite this rise, these plans would result in defense spending constituting less than 2.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product, well below the postwar peak of 9.5 percent in 1968. A key aspect of national security is an economy that grows strongly enough to continue to meet the resource demands in the private sector, social objectives, and our military and other national security needs. In those narrow areas where potential tradeoffs between economic growth and national security arise, a transparent, targeted, disciplined, and confidential process to augment economic transactions with security dimensions will serve the United States well. Thank you for the opportunity to appear before the Subcommittee. I look forward to your questions.   See The Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans and Alternatives: Summary Update for Fiscal Year 2006, Congressional Budget Office, 2005.
  • Homeland Security
    Statement Before The House Armed Services Subcommittee on Terrorism, Unconventional Threats, and Capabilities
    Chairman Saxton, Congressman Meehan, members of the Subcommittee: Thank you for inviting me here today to discuss the future of the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) and the war on terror, along with two men for whom I have great admiration—Wayne Downing and Mike Vickers. I will begin by suggesting what kind of force we need to defeat our Islamist enemies, then review the deficiencies of our current force structure, and finally conclude with a suggestion for how a major organizational overhaul—the resurrection of the Office of Strategic Services—could address some of these shortcomings. My starting point is the assumption that in the years ahead key competencies for the U.S. armed forces will be knowledge of foreign languages and cultures, skill at counterinsurgency warfare, and the ability to work with a wide range of foreign allies, ranging from advanced NATO militaries and constabularies to primitive militias in places like Afghanistan and Somalia. All of these needs are dictated by the nature of the global war being waged on the U.S. and our allies by Al Qaeda and various other Islamist terrorist groups. Our enemies in this struggle cannot be defeated with conventional military force. Indeed, there is a distinct danger that indiscriminate application of violence will only create more enemies in the future. To defeat this Islamist insurgency we must be able not only to track down and capture or kill hard-core terrorists but also to carry out civil affairs and information operations to win the “hearts and minds” of the great mass of uncommitted Muslims. We are very good at eliminating top terrorists, once they have been found (witness Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s death); less good at finding them (Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are still at large); and less skilled still at changing the conditions that breed terrorism in the first place (look at the continuing violence in Iraq and Afghanistan). Focus on Counterinsurgency We are paying the price for this skills-deficit in places like Iraq where it has been difficult for a conventionally focused Army and Marine Corps—to say nothing of the Navy and Air Force—to pivot to counterinsurgency operations. There is widespread concern, including within the armed forces, that a predilection for “kinetic” solutions has made the situation in parts of Iraq worse, not better. In this regard, I was stuck by an op-ed published recently in the Baltimore Sun (“Military Must Share the Blame,” June 20, 2006) by a Marine officer named Erik Swabb who served in Fallujah in 2004-2005. He writes that prior to deployment, “We did not understand certain dynamics at play, such as the notion that excessive force protection alienates the populace, reduces intelligence and, therefore, makes one less secure. We knew how to raid a house but not how to build local relationships and learn where insurgents were hiding. We did not know these crucial aspects of counterinsurgency because we had never received training about them.” Keep in mind that Swabb went to Iraq more than year into the guerrilla war, and that he served in the Marine Corps, which has traditionally placed more emphasis on “small war” skills than have the other services. And yet, by his own testimony, he did not understand the most basic tenets of counterinsurgency warfare—especially the fundamental paradox that too much aggression can be counterproductive, and that a “softer” approach can actually produce better results.  The armed services, in particular the Army and Marine Corps, are now doing a better job of training for such missions—but not good enough. That is why General George Casey Jr. felt compelled to set up his own counterinsurgency school in Iraq for newly arriving officers, a job that should have been done before they shipped off to war. Clearly there is a need for more training focused on this critical subject, as there is for more language training. Anything this Committee could do to further prod the armed forces in this direction would be extremely useful. The Quadrennial Defense Review made the right noises about the need to focus on stability operations, language training, and related areas, but the defense budget remains overwhelmingly focused on conventional programs. Much more needs to be done to turn the rhetoric about irregular warfare into reality. No one suggests that we go too far in the opposite direction and focus our military exclusively on waging “small wars.” There is still a need to be able to fight large, conventional conflicts against potential adversaries like China and North Korea, if only to prevent them from happening in the first place. And while the regular armed forces must gain greater competence in counterinsurgency and related disciplines, they should not become the main focus of most soldiers, sailors, airmen, or marines. The bulk of this task should fall to specialists—the men and women who will be on the front lines of the war on terror for decades to come. They must be experts in such fields as ethnography, linguistics, geography, history, economics, politics, policing, public relations, public administration, diplomacy, low-intensity conflict, and human intelligence collection and analysis—preferably at the same time. Merely to state the list is to make obvious our shortcomings in all of these areas. We do not have nearly enough Gertrude Bells, T.E. Lawrences, Charles “Chinese” Gordons, or Richard Francis Burtons, to name only a few of the area experts from the heyday of the British Empire who immersed themselves in foreign cultures in order to advance Whitehall’s interests across the globe. Experts Needed Such learned men and women can be invaluable “force multipliers.” Consider the case of Colonel Robert Warburton, who spoke fluent Persian and Pashto and spent 18 years (1879-1897) as the political officer in the Northwest Frontier province of what is today Pakistan. He kept this volatile region (now a Taliban and al Qaeda stronghold) quiet through his personal influence. “In an area where every male was habitually armed at all times,” historian Byron Farwell wrote in Queen Victoria’s Little Wars, “he went about with only a walking stick.” Within a month of his retirement, the area was swept by an Islamic fundamentalist revolt that took thousands of British soldiers to put down. I daresay we would have more luck pacifying the Northwest Frontier—now a key task for our forces in Afghanistan—if we had more Warburtons of our own. Unfortunately the personnel system employed not only by the armed forces but also by State Department, CIA, and other government agencies makes it practically impossible to develop such expertise. Diplomats, soldiers, and spies alike are shuffled from post to post with dizzying rapidity. The average army officer spends an average of only 18 months at each assignment over the course of a 25-year career. The army rotates units out of Afghanistan and Iraq every year, the Marines every six to seven months. The State Department and the CIA move their employees just as often, if not more so. So just when our people on the spot start to figure out what’s going on in these complex cultures, that’s when it’s time for them to go home and for novices to replace them. The logic behind this system is that soldiers and other government employees are supposed to be nearly interchangeable cogs in a giant machine—a tank driver ought to be able to drive an M-1 whether in Alabama or Anbar. But cultural knowledge cannot be so easily taught or transferred. In tribal societies, influence is entirely personal; the relationships cultivated by one soldier, spy, or diplomat cannot easily be passed along to a successor. Our personnel system further places a premium on moving officers from slot to slot—from line commands to staff jobs and schools, from combat to garrison duty—in order to develop a corps of generalists from which eventually the senior leaders of the services will be selected. There is a lot to be said for this system, but there must also be a way for some experts to opt out of the endless rotations—to stay for years, even decades, in one job or one place and thereby gain the kind of specialized expertise that we so desperately need in the war on terrorism. SOCOM’s Shortcomings In theory, the place where much of the expertise which I have previously described ought to reside, at least as far as the armed forces go, is the U.S. Special Operations Command. SOCOM has been designated the lead combat component in the war on terror for this very reason. In practice, however, SOCOM falls far short of what we need. It is overly focused on what is known in the trade as Direct Action—on rappelling out of helicopters, kicking down doors, and capturing or killing bad guys. This strategy can occasionally pay off, as with the capture of Saddam Hussein and the killing of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, but the aftermath of these celebrated accomplishments shows the limitations of the “manhunter” model of counterinsurgency. In both cases, the immobilization of major enemy leaders proved to be only temporary setbacks for a large-scale, decentralized terrorist movement. Making real progress, whether in Iraq or other locales, will require accomplishing much more difficult, less glamorous tasks such as establishing security, furthering economic and political development, and spreading the right information to win over the populace. Above all, it will require working with indigenous allies who must necessarily carry the bulk of the burden in this type of conflict. Native recruits have been key to America’s most successful counterinsurgencies, whether the Apache scouts who helped track down the renegade chief Geronimo in 1886 or the Macabebe Scouts who helped capture Philippine rebel leader Emilio Aguinaldo in 1901. Reliance on these native helpers is necessary because few if any outsiders can be expected to match guerrillas’ knowledge of local topography and society. Nor is it likely that the U.S. will ever be able to send enough soldiers overseas to win a major insurgency on their own; our resources are sufficiently limited that it will always be necessary to rely in great part on locally recruited soldiers and constables when waging an insurgency or counterinsurgency. In the modern Special Operations lexicon, such tasks fall under the rubric of “unconventional warfare” (i.e., helping indigenous allies to carry out guerrilla operations, psy-ops, intelligence-gathering, and related activities) and “foreign internal defense” (helping friendly governments defeat guerrillas and bandits), and they are two of the primary missions of the Army Special Forces, popularly known as the Green Berets, who are supposed to work closely with psychological operations and civil affairs specialists. But there is widespread concern within Army SF circles that their “softer”, but no less vital, missions are being shortchanged by SOCOM in favor of sexier SWAT-style raids. One recently retired SF colonel wrote to me a few weeks ago: “The current problem with SOCOM is that it is unbalanced.  Most of the leadership and planning staff have come from the DA [Direct Action] side. They have no understanding of UW [Unconventional Warfare]. To the degree that they are starting to develop an appreciation for it, it is only as an enabler for DA operations. In other words, they want to cherry pick techniques developed to wage unconventional war and use them to support conventional commando operations.”   Another more senior, retired SF officer emailed to complain of the “total USSOCOM preoccupation with raiding—SOF orientation on Special Operations and absolutely none on Low Intensity Conflict. OSD-SOLIC [Office of the Secretary of Defense, Special Operations/Low Intensity Conflict] only has fulfilled 1/2 of its charter. Low Intensity Conflict died around 1990-91.” Similar concerns have been aired in print—for instance in Sean Naylor’s Armed Forces Journal article, “More Than Door Kickers” (March 2006), which quoted yet another retired SF officer (Lieutenant Colonel Mark Haselton), complaining, “My concern is that all we’re focused on is direct action, to the absolute exclusion of all other things.... If we the spend the rest of our lives ‘capturing and killing’ terrorists a the expense of those SF missions that are more important—gaining access to the local population, training indigenous forces, providing expertise and expanding capacity—we’re doomed to failure.” When I hear such complaints coming from so many “snake eaters” for whom I have such high respect, I take them seriously, and I think the members of this Committee should too. SOCOM has created the best commando forces in the world, but it will take more than commandos to win the war on terror. An Unconventional Warfare Command? The question is, what to do about this? Is it possible to get SOCOM to refocus more on Unconventional Warfare and less on Direct Action? Probably not. Already SOCOM has transferred most of its psy-ops and civil affairs capabilities—areas of scant interest to most Navy SEALS, Army Rangers, or Delta Force operatives—to the regular army. And, as Naylor noted, of the eight top flag officers at SOCOM’s headquarters at MacDill Air Force Base in Florida, not one spent his career in Special Forces. (General Bryan “Doug” Brown, the SOCOM commander, once served on an A-Team as an enlisted man many decades ago, but his specialty as an officer has been special operations aviation.) The institutional culture of SOCOM is so firmly fixed in favor of “kicking down doors”—and so much of its funding is directed for such purposes—that it is doubtful that any amount of outside pressure, even from this Committee, will change the dominant mindset very much, especially when the Office of the Secretary of Defense remains so fixated on such missions. For this reason there is growing interest within the U.S. Army SF community in creating a new Joint Unconventional Warfare Command within SOCOM—a UW equivalent to the Joint Special Operations Command which encompasses units like Delta Force (a.k.a. 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta) and Seal Team Six (a.k.a. Naval Special Warfare Development Group, or DevGru), and focuses on Direct Action missions. An Unconventional Warfare Command could bring together Army Special Forces, civil-affairs, and psy-ops by essentially expanding the role of the Army Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. According to a paper commissioned by the Army Special Operations Command Futures Center, this new command “could fight the GWOT [Global War on Terror] by organizing,training, equipping and/or leading indigenous assets to conduct subversion, sabotage and intelligence activities directed against groups practicing terrorism or against nation-states supporting terrorism directed against U.S. interests throughout the world.” This strikes me as a good idea, but I would also urge the Committee to consider going further and removing the Unconventional Warfare mission from SOCOM altogether. I would like to conclude my testimony with a bold idea for how this could be accomplished: by resurrecting the Office of Strategic Services that was created in 1942 to gather and analyze intelligence as well as to conduct low-intensity warfare behind enemy lines in occupied Europe and Asia. OSS Redux OSS was disbanded after World War II; both the Green Berets and the CIA trace their lineage to this august ancestor. My proposal is to re-create OSS by bringing together under one roof not only Army SF, civil-affairs, and psy-ops but also the CIA’s paramilitary Special Activities Division, which has always been a bit of a bureaucratic orphan at Langley (and which is staffed largely by Special Operations veterans). This could be a joint civil-military agency under the combined oversight of the Secretary of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence, like the Defense Intelligence Agency or the National Security Agency. It would bring together in one place all of the key skill sets needed to wage the softer side of the war on terror. Like SOCOM, it would have access to military personnel and assets; but like the CIA’s Special Activities Division, its operations would contain a higher degree of “covertness,” flexibility, and “deniability” than those carried out by the uniformed military. One of the key advantages of OSS II is that it would be able to employ indigenous personnel on a much larger scale than is practicable today. There is currently a legal prohibition on recruiting into the U.S. armed forces anyone who is not an American citizen or permanent resident (Green Card holder). The CIA also looks askance upon non-American officers (as opposed to agents). These are considered “security risks.” But the greater risk is that we will lose the war on terror because we don’t have enough understanding of the societies in which terrorists operate. Such knowledge can be acquired in one of two ways: either by long-term immersion in foreign societies or by simply recruiting from the societies in which we fight. OSS II could facilitate both approaches, in the first place by junking the military’s overly restrictive personnel rotation policies, and in the second place by junking its overly restrictive citizenship requirements. The Green Berets recruited non-citizens in the 1950s when the Lodge Act allowed the enlistment of Eastern Europeans who were considered vital for operations behind the Iron Curtain. Something similar should be tried today to recruit from Muslim societies around the world, starting with the Middle Eastern immigrant community right here in the U.S. (The most reliable recruits would probably be ethnic or religious minorities within Muslim societies—Egyptian Copts, Moroccan Jews, Lebanese Druze, Iranian Azeris, Saudi Shiites, Iraqi and Iranian Kurds, etc.—just as the U.S. has previously made use of minorities such as the Philippine Macabebes and the Vietnamese Montagnards.) I bet there would be plenty of high-quality recruits who would be willing to serve in return for one of the world’s most precious commodities—U.S. citizenship. It might even make sense to create an entire brigade or even a division of foreign fighters led by American officers and NCOs. Call it the Freedom Legion, in homage to the French Foreign Legion. Such units have been successfully raised by every great power in history. Think, for example, of the Gurkhas who still serve in large numbers, and with considerable distinction, in the British and Indian armies. Some Americans may recoil from the idea of enlisting “mercenaries” but these men and women would be a lot more useful and a lot more disciplined than most of the “security contractors” we employ en masse today in places like Iraq. More specialized indigenous units could be formed specifically to work in areas like Somalia, Syria, North Korea, and Iran, where there is either no effective local government or the government is hostile to the U.S. OSS II would be a natural repository for such outfits, considering the success of the original OSS in running indigenous forces such as the Kachin tribesmen who battled the Japanese in Burma. It would be a bit more of a stretch to designate OSS II as the primary repository of nation-building expertise within the U.S. government, but given the unwillingness of other agencies, civil or military, to fill this yawning gap, this might be the most convenient expedient. The new OSS could cultivate a corps of experts, civil and military, coming from both government and the private sector, who would be skilled in the difficult task of rebuilding stateless or war-torn societies in cooperation with other federal departments, international agencies, American allies, and non-governmental organizations. These skills are closely related to those needed for counterinsurgency, because the most effective way to counter any insurgency is not to kill a bunch of guerrillas but to create an effective government that can provide for the needs of the people better than can the guerrillas’ shadow government. We have paid a heavy price in Iraq for not having such a nation-building (or, more accurately, state-building) capacity on tap; Jay Garner’s Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance and Jerry Bremer’s Coalition Provisional Authority were last-minute expedients that could not possibly have succeeded because they did not spend nearly enough time preparing for the daunting task of running a country of 25 million people. I realize that the creation of a new OSS is a radical notion that could not be implemented tomorrow. It would require the most sweeping legislation since the 1987 Nunn-Cohen Amendment that created SOCOM in the first place. Obviously such a step needs a good deal more study and discussion. But if we are to be successful in the Long War, we need to think outside of the traditional bureaucratic boxes, because the U.S. government as currently set up—and that most assuredly includes SOCOM—simply is not adequately configured for the tasks ahead. Given the potential threat posed by our enemies—a threat of which we were reminded by news of an Al Qaeda plot to release poison gas on the New York subway—that could turn out to be a very dangerous deficiency. Thank you for your time and attention. I would be happy to answer any questions you might have.
  • United States
    Threats to The Nation's Capital: Are We Safe?
    The nation's capital is a target-rich area by both absolute and symbolic measurements. This meeting will assess the unique threats to security in the Washington area, and the necessary responses. The discussion will evaluate steps already taken, determine what more needs to be done, identify resources, and analyze the challenges facing a coordinated response given the federal, local, and state entities involved.8:00-8:30 a.m. Breakfast Reception8:30-9:30 a.m. MeetingPlease Note: Special location
  • Homeland Security
    A Conversation with Michael Chertoff
    Play
    Watch U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff discuss port security and immigration.
  • Homeland Security
    Michael Chertoff
    Play
    12:15–1:00 p.m. Lunch1:00–2:00 p.m. MeetingSeating is limited.
  • Homeland Security
    Police Departments
    This publication is now archived. Has the job of America’s police departments changed since September 11? Yes. While the core mission of police departments—responding to emergencies and ensuring public safety—remains the same, experts say the September 11 attacks triggered a shift in policing priorities around the country. Many police departments are devoting increased resources to preparing for terrorist attacks and gathering intelligence to head off possible threats. In the event of a terrorist attack, police officers would be among the first emergency workers on the scene: on September 11, thousands of New York City police officers rushed to the World Trade Center, and twenty-three were killed when the towers collapsed. Police departments are also often the first to respond to and investigate civilian reports of terrorism-related criminal activity. Was terrorism a major concern for police departments before September 11? Not really. Experts say that following attacks such as the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, the 1995 bombing of Oklahoma City’s Murrah Federal Building, and the 1995 sarin gas attack in the Tokyo subway system, some big-city departments did begin to give more attention to security in certain buildings and transportation systems. For the most part, however, terrorism in the United States was considered a remote possibility, even in urban areas. Broader measures to prevent or prepare for an attack, such as improving intelligence sharing among law enforcement agencies or refining disaster plans, were generally not taken. Many local governments were facing budget deficits and focusing on trimming costs. Moreover, experts say that police departments generally thought the threat of terrorism could be handled by the FBI, the lead U.S. counterterrorism agency, and the CIA, the lead U.S. intelligence agency. How have police departments changed since September 11? While their efforts vary according to their respective community’s resources and perceived vulnerability, many police departments have: strengthened liaisons with federal, state, and local agencies, including fire departments and other police departments. refined their training and emergency response plans to address terrorist threats, including attacks with weapons of mass destruction. increased patrols and shored up barriers around landmarks, places of worship, ports of entry, transit systems, nuclear power plants, and so on. more heavily guarded public speeches, parades, and other public events. created new counterterrorism divisions and reassigned officers to counterterrorism from other divisions such as drug enforcement. employed new technologies, such as X-ray-like devices to scan containers at ports of entry and sophisticated sensors to detect a chemical, biological, or radiation attack. For the most part, the threat of terrorism has not led to large-scale hiring of new police officers. Counterterrorism measures put into place by the New York City Police Department (NYPD), which has firsthand experience in handling terrorist attacks and continues to respond to a flurry of threats, have made it a national and world model for police preparedness and training, as outlined in a comprehensive article published in the New Yorker in July 2005. How is the NYPD fighting terrorism? Its new measures include: creating a counterterrorism division and hiring a deputy police commissioner for counterterrorism to oversee related training, prevention, and investigations, and to work with state and federal agencies. hiring a deputy commissioner for intelligence and an in-house intelligence officer for each of the NYPD’s seventy-six precincts. training the department’s 39,000 officers in counterterrorism, including how to respond to a biological, chemical, or radiation attack. assigning detectives to train abroad with police departments in Israel, Canada, and potentially other countries in the Middle East and in Southeast Asia. assigning one detective to Interpol, the France-based international police agency, and two detectives to FBI headquarters in Washington. placing command centers throughout the city to back up headquarters in the event of a large-scale terrorist attack. acquiring equipment such as protective suits, gas masks, and portable radiation detectors. How do police departments work with the FBI? Primarily through Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs), which bring local and federal law enforcement officers together to respond to and investigate terrorism-related activity. The first JTTF was set up in 1979 with members of the NYPD and the FBI; the FBI established or authorized JTTFs in each of its fifty-six field offices. Did federal, state, and local agencies share information effectively before September 11? No. Experts say the CIA, the FBI, and local law enforcement failed to communicate before the attacks—this was the major finding in the long-anticipated 9/11 Commission’s report. Many experts attribute the lack of cooperation to mistrust and cultural differences between the agencies. Also, investigations of the way New York’s police and fire departments coordinated their response on September 11 have revealed numerous breakdowns in communication and command systems that may have cost many lives.
  • Terrorism and Counterterrorism
    Fire Departments
    This publication is now archived. Can fire departments help respond to terrorist attacks? Yes, as they famously did on September 11. America’s 31,000 local fire department are the first line of defense in many dangerous incidents, arriving within minutes of an alarm—often before anyone knows if what’s happening is an accident, arson, or terrorism. In addition to putting out fires, firefighters rescue people in danger, provide emergency medical services, and handle situations involving hazardous materials. These duties, combined with their quick-response role, put fire departments on the frontlines of responding to terrorist incidents. In an effort to contain the damage, save lives, and manage the crisis on the morning of September 11 in lower Manhattan, 343 New York City firefighters died in the attack on the World Trade Center. Are firefighters trained to respond to terrorist attacks? Yes. Some fire departments maintain specialized rescue or hazardous-materials units with skills that might also apply in a terrorist attack. And since the mid-1990s, many of America’s million or more firefighters have been trained to be alert for threats from terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. They have learned to watch out for secondary bombs after a first explosion, to stay away from potential biological or chemical toxins without proper equipment, to preserve evidence, and to coordinate with other federal and local authorities. Other groups such as the FBI and public health officials also respond to terrorist incidents, but it may take them longer to arrive at the scene. When did fire departments start to worry about terrorism? Fire service officials say that the 1993 World Trade Center bombing alerted them to the need for terrorism preparations, and that two major 1995 terrorist attacks—the release of sarin gas on the Tokyo subway and Timothy McVeigh’s bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City —underscored the urgency. The September 11 attacks have led officials to call for all firefighters to receive basic terrorism-response training. Will the September 11 attacks change how firefighters do their jobs? Yes. After the loss of hundreds of New York firefighters in the Twin Towers attack, fire officials around the country are reevaluating whether they should do more to restrain firefighters’ impulse to enter burning buildings and rush into other situations where their own lives might be in peril. In light of increased concern over invisible dangers like biological or chemical weapons, current protocols direct firefighters not to enter an area unless they know what substance is involved and are wearing safety equipment. The New York Fire Department—which lost many members of its rescue, training, and leadership teams, as well as vehicles and other specialized equipment—conducted an internal review of its emergency response procedures to study how its staff handled the attack, and to explore failures in radio communications. Did the September 11 attacks raise other concerns for fire departments? Yes. Fire service officials are calling for more training, better equipment such as particle-filtering masks (not the oxygen masks firefighters sometimes wear), and the funding to pay for these improvements. They are also eager to rein in “self-deployers”—firefighters from other jurisdictions who decide as individuals to drive to the scene of an incident and offer help, as happened with the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. However noble their aims, experts say, self-deployers can be a hindrance when they show up unannounced, and they also leave their home departments high and dry—which could pose a danger in case of a local fire or a multiphase terrorist attack. Are fire departments organized on a national level Fire departments are fundamentally local institutions, although they share many protocols and have mutual-aid agreements with neighboring departments so they can support each other during major incidents. Fire departments coordinate through national unions, membership organizations, and the U.S. Fire Administration, a division of the Federal Emergency Management Administration. The fire service also has a representative in the White House Homeland Security Office.
  • Terrorism and Counterterrorism
    FBI and Law Enforcement
    This publication is now archived. Has the FBI’s mission changed since September 11? Yes. In the aftermath of September 11, the Federal Bureau of Investigation—the investigative arm of the Justice Department and the lead federal agency for counterterrorism—made preventing terrorist attacks its top priority, replacing the bureau’s old focus on pursuing white-collar criminals, bank robbers, and drug traffickers. One of the largest overhauls in the bureau’s history was announced in spring 2002 amid mounting complaints from FBI insiders, Congress, and experts that the bureau had mishandled key leads before the World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks. FBI director Robert S. Mueller III has said that part of the September 11 plot might have been uncovered if federal agencies had communicated better and properly evaluated the clues at hand. The 9/11 Commission report found that the intelligence community had a “significant increase” of intelligence information regarding Osama bin Laden and a potential terrorist attack, but that the community “too often failed to focus on that information and to capitalize on available and potentially important information.” Did the FBI miss clues prior to September 11? Yes. In a May 2002 memo to Mueller, Coleen Rowley, a senior agent in the FBI’s Minneapolis office, accused FBI headquarters of having repeatedly refused requests she had made before September 11 for a warrant to wiretap and to search the computer and belongings of Zacarias Moussaoui, the alleged “twentieth hijacker.” Moussaoui aroused suspicions while training at a Minnesota flight school and was arrested in August 2001 on visa violations. A search of his computer after September 11 revealed data about the cockpit layouts of commercial aircraft and phone numbers that could have led authorities to the plotters. The FBI also failed to connect the Moussaoui case to a July 2001 memo from a Phoenix FBI agent, Kenneth Williams, warning the FBI that Arab men who might be linked to Osama bin Laden were training at a flight school in Arizona. FBI headquarters rejected his proposal to investigate other flight schools, reportedly because of a lack of resources. Beyond ignoring warnings from the field, the FBI has also been criticized for failing to coordinate with the CIA. The FBI now admits it could have done better. The 9/11 Commission’s report sharply criticized intelligence agencies for failing to address the terrorist threat before September 11, revealed new findings about clues that the agencies ignored, and offered nineteen recommendations for improving their intelligence capabilities. Why did the FBI miss clues about the September 11 plot? Experts say the bureau’s failure to act on information from its field offices is not surprising. Before September 11, the FBI was configured as a law enforcement agency charged with solving crimes that had already taken place, not as an intelligence force aimed at preventing attacks. Field agents didn’t have the power to begin investigations without evidence that a specific crime had been committed or was going to be committed—and even then they had to wait weeks or months for approval from headquarters before proceeding. Did the FBI and the CIA cooperate effectively before September 11? No. The FBI and the CIA failed to share key clues before the attacks. Experts say that fundamental cultural differences and turf wars have long hindered cooperation between the two agencies. The CIA was established in 1947 to collect intelligence abroad, and its charter forbids it to conduct investigations inside the United States. Instead, it passes on intelligence relevant to domestic concerns to the FBI, which handles domestic investigations. Some experts say that the United States often fails to anticipate cross-border threats like terrorism because it lacks a single agency devoted to collecting, analyzing, and piecing together both domestic and foreign information. Two new agencies have recently been formed in an attempt to solve this problem—the Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC), the head of which will report to the director of central intelligence, and the Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection Directorate (IAIP) within the Homeland Security Department. Both will analyze and coordinate intelligence gathered by the CIA, FBI, DHS, and DOD, and assess threats to homeland security. In addition, President Bush asked Congress to approve the creation of a new post for a National Intelligence Director—a stand alone post that acts as the primary intelligence officer for the President. John Negroponte, former ambassador and United States permanent representative to the UN, was sworn in as the director in April 2005. What FBI reforms have been proposed? In December 2001, Mueller announced a plan to reorganize FBI headquarters that included the modernization of obsolete information systems and the creation of new divisions to emphasize counterterrorism, counterintelligence, cybercrimes, and communications with state and local law enforcement. But as criticism mounted in the spring of 2002, Mueller announced more sweeping reforms, including plans to: Hire 400 more analysts, including twenty-five analysts borrowed from the CIA. Shift 480 agents from white-collar and violent crime investigation to counterterrorism. Create an office of intelligence to gather, analyze, and share critical national security information. Establish “flying squads” of terrorism experts based at FBI headquarters to provide intelligence support to the bureau’s fifty-six field offices. Recruit fluent speakers of Arabic and other Middle Eastern and South Asian languages. Create a national joint terrorism task force to help the FBI coordinate its efforts with the CIA and other agencies. Improve strategic analyses of terrorist groups and networks, including looking more closely at their finances and methods of communication. Shortly after September 11, the passage of the U.S.A. Patriot Act enhanced the FBI’s power to intercept communications and collect information during terrorism investigations. In May 2002, former Attorney General John Ashcroft revised the bureau’s investigative guidelines to allow field offices to open criminal investigations without first obtaining approval from headquarters. Agents were also given broader powers to surf the Internet, monitor religious and political groups, and visit houses of worship without evidence that a crime has been committed. Will the reforms help prevent terrorist attacks? It’s hard to say. Some experts say the FBI has been given tools that will let it do its job. Others say the bureaucratic and cultural issues that plague the FBI and its relationships with other federal agencies—as well as local law enforcement—are too large to be addressed by quick reforms. Substantial numbers of high-ranking FBI officials quit in the wake of 9/11. The resulting labor shortage may hinder reform efforts—as may old habits. According to Jonathan Winer, a former State Department official, the largest problems at the FBI (besides a shortage of resources) are an unwillingness to share information with other agencies, poor communication within the bureau itself, and a lack of trust. Experts say it’s too soon to tell whether the new reforms can help build a FBI based on cooperation, where agents are rewarded for taking risks and thinking creatively.
  • Homeland Security
    Department of Homeland Security
    This publication is now archived. What is the Department of Homeland Security? It’s the newest cabinet department, approved by Congress in November 2002. It’s designed to consolidate U.S. defenses against terrorist attack and to better coordinate counterterrorism intelligence. Incorporating parts of eight other cabinet departments, it is the first new government department since the Veterans Affairs Department in 1989. What does the Department of Homeland Security do? The department is designed to absorb several federal agencies dealing with domestic defense, including the Coast Guard, the Border Patrol, the Customs Service, the Immigration and Naturalization Service, the Secret Service, and the Transportation Security Administration (which was created after September 11 to oversee airline security). Its responsibilities include exploring ways to respond to terror attacks and working to better coordinate intelligence about terrorist threats. The department is also expected to implement much of the National Strategy for Homeland Security, the domestic security plan unveiled by President Bush in July 2002. What is the organizational structure of the department? When Michael Chertoff took over as the second head of the DHS in 2005, he instituted a number of structural changes including merging twenty-two federal agencies into the department, the largest government reorganization in half a century. The Federal Emergency Management Agency [FEMA], for example, was relieved of its catastrophe-prevention duties in order to focus solely on responding to terror attacks and natural disasters. A new Directorate for Preparedness took over FEMA’s work with states and local officials to develop response plans. The notoriously error-prone Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection Directorate [IAIP] was broken up. One of the few components of DHS that did not exist prior to 2003, IAIP included mini-golf courses on a list of critical infrastructure and placed members of Congress on the “no-fly list,” among other embarrassments. Information analysis is now conducted in a newly-formed Office of Intelligence and Analysis,. A Directorate of Policy, headed by its own undersecretary, coordinates the efforts of the various DHS agencies to ensure that consistent policies are set and followed. Before the reorganization, many of the department’s agencies—such as the Transportation Security Administration, Secret Service, and Border Patrol—had their own, relatively independent policy shops. The effectiveness of these structural changes was questioned in September 2005, when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, killing more than a thousand people and flooding the city for weeks. Critics believed the merger of these separate emergency response agencies into the DHS umbrella led almost directly to FEMA’s poor planning, lack of communication, and slow response to the hurricane. Did the Bush administration initially want a cabinet department on homeland security? No. After the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the Bush administration tried a more modest restructuring of America ’s homeland defenses by creating a White House office to handle domestic security, headed by Tom Ridge . But congressional critics warned that the White House homeland security office fell short, noting that federal agencies were trying to buck Ridge’s oversight and that Ridge had no budgetary authority over the agencies he sought to coordinate. Ridge, a former Republican governor of Pennsylvania and close friend of President Bush, was confirmed in January 2003 as secretary of the new homeland security department. He resigned in 2004. Was this a major government overhaul? Yes. Bush administration officials say the federal government hasn’t seen such sweeping changes since 1947, when President Truman merged the War and Navy departments into the Department of Defense. Even experts unconvinced by that claim say that the department’s creation represents a major governmental restructuring. Was one federal agency responsible for domestic security before September 11? No. Earlier terrorist attacks—especially the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, the 1995 bombing of an Oklahoma City federal building, and the 1995 sarin gas attack in the Tokyo subway system—sparked discussions about the need for such an office, and before September 11 several blue-ribbon commissions and congressional leaders recommended that the federal government create one. Nevertheless, homeland security remained low on the political radar screen until after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.
  • Homeland Security
    Neglected Defense
    Overview The withering scrutiny that ports have received in recent weeks has highlighted America’s ongoing state of national vulnerability. In the fifth year since 9/11, federal efforts to enlist the private sector in bolstering homeland security remain largely stillborn. In January 2005, the Council on Foreign Relations initiated a year-long project, informed by a nonpartisan working group drawn entirely from the private sector, to assess and identify practical solutions for what is inhibiting progress on this vital agenda. Neglected Defense: Mobilizing the Private Sector to Support Homeland Security is the fruits of that effort. The central finding is that the federal government has had a naïve view of what the market is able to do when left largely on its own to protect critical infrastructure. First and foremost, the private sector needs active and sustained leadership by the White House and Congress. Washington needs to set priorities based on risk and consequences versus politics as usual. It needs to move beyond clarion calls for the private sector to do more and establish smart regulations where industry seeks them and provide meaningful incentives for their early adoption. Agency heads must be held accountable for their foot dragging on information sharing. Finally, the federal government needs to resolve the questions of who pays, and tackle the many unique liability issues associated with security. Everything that can be done is not being done to redress America’s most glaring vulnerabilities. Questions and comments about this report can be directed to Stephen Flynn ([email protected]) and Daniel Prieto ([email protected]).
  • Homeland Security
    Ibrahim: Dubai May Benefit From 45-Day Study of U.S. Ports Deal
    Youssef Ibrahim, managing director of Dubai-based Strategic Energy Investment Group, and a former Middle East correspondent for the New York Times, says the pending deal for Dubai Ports World to administer the ports in major U.S. cities is not a security concern in a technical sense. But he says it is worthwhile for the 45-day study to go ahead. "Some good will come out of this. It may even be good for Dubai," says Ibrahim, who is also a former senior fellow in Middle Eastern studies at CFR.
  • United States
    Risk-Based Homeland Security Spending
    The Department of Homeland Security has changed the way it awards funds to cities. The question now is whether the new program will make America’s cities safer.
  • Homeland Security
    Responding to Nuclear Attacks
    This publication is now archived. Could terrorists steal or build a nuclear weapon?It’s an unlikely, nightmarish scenario, but one that’s so dangerous it has to be considered. Experts say that a small group—perhaps as few as four expert scientists, without access to classified information—might be able to build a crude nuclear bomb if they could somehow acquire enough highly enriched uranium or even plutonium. Terrorists might also try stealing “loose nukes” from the more poorly guarded arsenals of such nuclear powers as Russia or Pakistan. Powerful nuclear weapons yielding hundreds or even thousands of kilotons are the most dangerous, but smaller bombs—which could range in yield from one-tenth of a kiloton to several hundred kilotons—would be easier to steal or build. Even a one-kiloton nuclear weapon would produce an explosion equivalent to the detonation of a thousand tons of TNT. (The bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki were 13- and 20-kiloton weapons, respectively, and they each killed some 150,000 people.) These scenarios are so frightening-and so enormously difficult to respond to-that nuclear experts have concluded that the government’s primary focus should be ensuring such attacks never happen, rather than responding to them. This fact sheet focuses on how America might try to manage the consequences of such a seemingly unthinkable atrocity. Is a terrorist nuclear attack on America likely?No. Making a bomb is not easy, and the necessary components—including plutonium and uranium—are hard to buy or steal. (It would be far easier for terrorists to make a vastly less dangerous “dirty bomb”—a conventional explosive laced with radioactive material—than a nuclear explosive.) Similarly, strategic nuclear weapons—the largest city-killing weapons in nuclear arsenals—are hard to steal and may be difficult to detonate. Somewhat more plausible scenarios, experts say, revolve around terrorists trying to get smaller, battlefield nuclear weapons such as atomic artillery shells, which are harder to keep track of and easier to use. The U.S. government has tried to decrease the risk of nuclear terrorism by working with Russia to secure any “loose nukes,” securing some supplies of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, stepping up intelligence programs, and focusing on such potential nuclear proliferators as Iran and North Korea. Does al-Qaeda pose a new type of nuclear threat?Experts say it does. An al-Qaeda nuclear attack would be less damaging than the old Cold War scenarios of nuclear war, but it is also more likely. After the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the superpowers set up mechanisms to decrease the risk of a global nuclear war, and both the United States and the Soviet Union were deterred by the knowledge that a nuclear strike on its adversary would mean its own destruction. But al-Qaeda, which has expressed a clear interest in nuclear technologies, is not a state, and cannot be thus deterred. The bin Laden network would not be able to unleash a global apocalypse, but it might destroy an American city. What would be the overall result of a nuclear explosion in an American city?Devastation. The number of casualties—including basically equal numbers of dead and wounded—would be enormous, and the long-term health, economic, psychological, political, and social consequences would be shattering. The scope of the destruction would depend on a number of factors, including the bomb’s yield, the location of the blast, the nearby population density, and prevailing weather conditions. How much damage would a small, crude nuclear weapon cause?According to one estimate, the blast from a one-kiloton nuclear weapon—such as a crude improvised weapon or a stolen battlefield weapon—in midtown Manhattan during the day would: Kill more than 200,000 people and injure at least 200,000 moreProduce radioactive fallout that could kill half the exposed population as far as three miles away within a few weeksDemolish most buildings and other structures over eleven city blocksSeriously disrupt Manhattan’s transportation, communications, utilities, and other infrastructure. How much damage would a large nuclear weapon cause?Again, it’s extremely unlikely that terrorists would be able to acquire a strategic nuclear weapon or get past the safeguards that are in place to prevent its unauthorized detonation. But under the scenario described above, the detonation in Manhattan of a 150-kiloton nuclear weapon would be even more devastating. It is estimated that it would:Kill more than 800,000 people and injure 900,000 moreProduce radioactive fallout that could kill half the exposed population as far as ten to fifteen miles awayDemolish all buildings and structures within a mile of the blast siteSet fires that would spread and burn out of control for daysKnock out many of the city’s major bridges and tunnels, as well as the power grid, communications networks, and other crucial utilities such as water and gasDestroy all but one of Manhattan’s major hospitals.
  • Terrorism and Counterterrorism
    Responding to Radiation Attacks
    This publication is now archived. Could terrorists use radiation as a weapon?Experts say they might, and Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist network has been eager to acquire radioactive material. In the aftermath of September 11, scenarios that have particularly worried homeland security officials include the detonation of a “dirty bomb”—an ordinary explosive laced with radioactive material—and the sabotage of a nuclear power plant with the intent to release radiation into the environment. In May 2002, the United States arrested an alleged al-Qaeda terrorist plotting to build and detonate a dirty bomb. What is radiation?Radiation is energy in the form of particles or waves. The term “radiation” is commonly used to refer to what scientists call “ionizing radiation,” which is emitted from the nuclei of atoms and is harmful to humans.Every day, people are exposed to naturally occurring ionizing radiation from elements in the soil and air, cosmic rays, and even materials in the human body itself. Man-made devices such as X-ray machines and nuclear power plants also generate radiation, although their output is tightly controlled to prevent harm. Some forms of radiation—including alpha and beta particles—are harmful only when they are ingested or come into contact with skin, and they can be blocked by something as simple as a sheet of paper or a plate of glass. But “penetrating radiation”—including gamma rays and the neutron radiation produced in nuclear fission—can travel hundreds of yards through the air, penetrate normal walls or floors, and affect the entire human body. How could a radiological attack expose people to harmful radiation?It can in two ways: One form of attack could spread radiation by placing concentrated, highly radioactive material in a city or by sabotaging a nuclear power plant. A second form of radiological attack could involve spreading radioactive materials with an aerosol spray or a dirty bomb. The dust and debris thrown up by a dirty bomb explosion might land on people’s skin and then be inhaled, ingested, or absorbed through wounds. Victims might also be exposed to radiation from radioactive materials scattered nearby. Victims near a dirty bomb attack might also absorb radioactive contaminants into their bodies. Radiation released by radioactive materials inside the body can damage the liver, thyroid, kidneys, and bones, as well as increase a victim’s chances of getting cancer. What would be the initial reaction to such attacks?To stop the exposure to radiation, victims would have to be decontaminated by removing irradiated clothing, washing the skin, and purging inhaled or ingested materials from inside the body. The surrounding area would also need to be decontaminated to remove radioactive material, prevent radioactive dust and debris from spreading, and protect food and water supplies. What health conditions can result from exposure to radiation?The exact biological effects of radiation exposure are not fully understood, scientists say. But we do know of two possible effects: the direct damage known as “radiation sickness” and an increased likelihood of developing cancer later on. What is radiation sickness?The illness takes different forms depending on the degree of exposure. Exposure to up to twenty times the annual background dose of radiation received by the average American would have no discernible effect. Up to 400 times the annual background dose would cause mild changes in the composition of the human blood and some temporary nausea or vomiting.Up to 1,000 times the annual background dose would cause nausea, vomiting, hair loss, reduced immune system function, and serious blood disease.Still higher doses—such as those that would hit unshielded workers inside a catastrophically sabotaged nuclear reactor—could cause severe dehydration, anemia, hemorrhaging, and infections. Such doses would kill 80 percent to 100 percent of the people exposed.