Defense and Security

Defense Technology

  • United States
    Drones and the War on Terror: When Can the U.S. Target Alleged American Terrorists Overseas?
    John B. Bellinger III testifies before the House Committee on the Judiciary on the legal and policy issues that stem from the use of lethal force by the U.S. government against American citizens abroad.
  • United States
    Chuck Hagel Hearing and the Iran Nuclear Dilemma
    Senator Chuck Hagel’s confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee was a protracted, repetitive, and disappointing affair. Rather than discuss the decisions for which the secretary of defense is empowered by U.S. law to make and implement as the “principal assistant to the President in all matters relating to the Department of Defense,” the hearing focused instead on forcing the former Nebraska senator to defend or deny his previous statements and positions. Hagel was repeatedly asked to re-clarify his already clarified positions about Israel and Iran. According to a Buzzfeed word count of the hearing, Israel and Iran were mentioned 166 and 144 times, respectively; meanwhile, Afghanistan (where 66,00 U.S. troops are stationed) was referenced 20 times, and troop suicides (which cost more lives in 2012 than battlefield deaths) was mentioned only twice. In comparison, Israel and Iran were mentioned much less frequently in recent secretary of defense confirmation hearings: for Donald Rumsfeld, Israel twice and Iran once; Robert Gates eight and seventy-four; and Leon Panetta three and eight. It was during one of the many, many exchanges about Iran that Senator Saxby Chambliss asked the essential question of U.S. policy toward Iran: Talk about redlines. If your position is truly prevention and not containment, Chuck, what is the redline, what is the point? We know there’s some things happening over there right now that are very serious. So how far do we go? Hagel replied: You asked the question about redlines. Well, redline. I think the president has gone as far as he should go publicly. He said clearly that, his words, he has Israel’s back. He said that it is policy not to allow the Iranians to get a nuclear weapon. What constitutes when the action would actually be taken. I think that’s always something that should not be discussed publicly, or debated publicly, or out in the public domain… I think the president is wise in his course of action, in not discussing that publically. I think it is a far smarter way to handle it. And I think he has said what he needs to say. I think it’s been understood in Iran. I think the world understands his position. This is an astonishing observation. The entire objective of diplomatic and economic sanctions, combined with the latent threat of military force, is to compel a state to change its behavior. Compellence, or coercive diplomacy, has three essential ingredients. First, a specific demand is placed upon a target state. Second, a specific deadline or a sense of urgency to comply is communicated to the target. Third, a credible threat of military punishment is made, which is great enough to make the target choose compliance over resistance. In addition, positive incentives can be offered to the target along with the declaration of the threat in an effort to increase the likelihood of compliance—i.e. offering a “carrot” while wielding a “stick.” This strategy succeeds when the target state complies with the demand on the required timeline because of the threat or use of limited force. President Obama’s redline on Iran is not at all clear or understood by the Iranian regime, U.S. Senate, or anyone else. Since I wrote in December about this summer’s looming deadline hinted by Israel and the United States, I have asked many U.S. government officials and national security analysts what would specifically trigger an attack by Israel and/or the United States against Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons sites. No one knows the answer to this question. If policymakers or analysts cannot understand President Obama’s redline, then Iran does not either. (Moreover, redlines offered by Israeli officials are also totally inconsistent.) If Iran does not know exactly what is the U.S. and Israeli redline, they do not know what actions would compel an attack. Coercive diplomacy does not work through a Vulcan mind meld. Later in the marathon hearing, Hagel sensibly observed, “I think it’s always wise to try to talk to people before you get into war.” But apparently it is unwise to tell them how to avoid war in the first place. Moreover, what justification for going to war with Iran would President Obama offer to the American public, if the trigger for initiating such a preemptive war was kept secret?
  • Defense Technology
    Reforming U.S. Drone Strike Policies
    Overview Over the last ten years, drones have become a critical tool in the war against terrorist and militant organizations worldwide. Their advantages over other weapons and intelligence systems are well known. They can silently observe an individual, group, or location for hours on end, but take immediate action should a strike opportunity become available--all without putting a pilot at risk. This combination of capabilities is unique and has allowed the United States to decimate the leadership of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and disrupt the activities of many other militant groups. Yet, as Micah Zenko writes in this Council Special Report from the Center for Preventive Action (CPA), drones are not without their drawbacks, especially with regard to targeted killings. Like any tool, drones are only as useful as the information guiding them, and for this they are heavily reliant on local military and intelligence cooperation. More important, significant questions exist about who constitutes a legitimate target and under what circumstances it is acceptable to strike. There is also the question of net utility: To what extent are the specific benefits derived from drone strikes offset by the reality that the strikes often alienate the local government and population? And there is the reality that drones are proliferating but, as is often the case with new technologies, the international legal and regulatory framework is lagging behind. Zenko puts forward a substantive agenda. He argues that the United States should end so-called signature strikes, which target unidentified militants based on their behavior patterns and personal networks, and limit targeted killings to a limited number of specific terrorists with transnational ambitions. He also calls Congress to improve its oversight of drone strikes and to continue restrictions on armed drone sales. Finally, he recommends that the United States work internationally to establish rules and norms governing the use of drones. Reforming U.S. Drone Strike Policies raises an important and underexamined set of issues. It analyzes the potentially serious consequences, both at home and abroad, of a lightly overseen drone program and makes recommendations for improving its governance. The result is a provocative report that is well worth reading and contemplating. Professors: To request an exam copy, contact [email protected]. Please include your university and course name. Bookstores: To order bulk copies, please contact Ingram. Visit https://ipage.ingrambook.com, call 800.234.6737, or email [email protected]. ISBN: 978-0-87609-544-7
  • United States
    U.S. Drone Policy
    Podcast
    Micah Zenko, CFR's Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action, discusses U.S. drone strikes and their global implications, as part of CFR's Academic Conference Call series. Learn more about CFR's resources for the classroom at Educators Home.
  • United States
    Ten Whats With...Gregory D. Johnsen
    Gregory D. Johnsen is a former Fulbright fellow in Yemen and currently a PhD candidate in Near Eastern studies at Princeton University. He is the author of The Last Refuge: Yemen, al-Qaeda, and America’s War in Arabia and writes the blog Waq al-Waq. 1. What is the most interesting project you are currently working on? At the moment, I’m working on the project that has occupied most of the last decade of my life: a history of the Yemeni Civil War from 1962-1970. This is the subject of my dissertation at Princeton that I’ll be completing and submitting in late spring. The civil war is a fascinating and understudied conflict from the Cold War. This was the place where what Malcom Kerr termed the “Arab Cold War” was fought out on the ground, with Nasser’s Egyptians fighting in support of the Republican forces while Saudi-backed Royalists attempted to hold onto the imamate. Studying the shifting alliances of this conflict is what first drew me to Yemen, and it continues to fascinate me and, I think, holds a lot of lessons for current Yemeni politics. The actors then, as now, refused to be neatly categorized or act in ways that we think might make sense and instead make decisions with only partial or misleading information. Reading the memoirs and contemporary accounts of the civil war is a lot like reading a contemporary Arabic version of George R.R. Martin’s Game of Thrones stories: political alliances, beheadings, and ruthless betrayals—it is all there. 2. What got you started in your career? There are three things—two people and an instance—that put me on the path I’m on today. The first was my mother reading to me every night as a child. She instilled a love of books in me that has been hard to extinguish. I’ve always been a better reader than a student. The second was an injury during the NY state Snickers Cup soccer final during the summer between my freshman and sophomore years of college. The injury forced me to refocus on school and made me realize that my soccer days were going to be short. Thankfully, I took a course—The Greek and Roman World—with Dr. Robert Babcock the next semester at Hastings College, and that course altered the arc of my life and made me want to be a historian. 3. What advice would you give to young people in your field? The best advice I could give anyone, young or old, is: read. The smartest people I’ve met have invariably been curious and voracious readers. 4. What person, book, or article has been most influential on your thinking? By far the most influential person in my life is my mother. She has never traveled to the Middle East and has little interest in Yemen or foreign policy, but she shaped how I think and how I view the world. 5. What was the last book you finished? The last book I finished was Ian McEwan’s Sweet Tooth. I read a lot of fiction—probably 70 percent of what I read are novels or short stories – and I’m a huge fan of good spy novels, and so after reading an excerpt in the New Yorker I couldn’t wait to pick up McEwan’s latest. It was great for two hundred pages, but the end frustrated and disappointed me in the way that the end of Amsterdam left me unsatisfied. But that book won the Booker prize, so I may be in the minority here. 6. What is the most overlooked threat to U.S. national interests? For me it is the way that the United States tends to overreact to security threats. I think this tendency carries within it very dangerous seeds. They might not come to fruition, but this is an American reflex that if not corrected could eventually lead to serious consequences. 7. What is the most inflated threat to U.S. national interests? There are a lot. But if I had to pick just one it would be the certainty I hear from so many experts in Washington, DC, that the next national security threat will come from Asia. 8. What is the most significant emerging global challenge? I think it is the way that current global environment is structured. A few years ago, Thomas Homer-Dixon wrote an interesting book called The Upside of Down. One of the examples he used was the earthquake and fire in San Francisco in 1906. He made the point that outside help managed to offset the losses, but I’m not sure that the current world functions the same way. 9. What would you research if given two years and unlimited resources? I would sit down to write the book that is currently working at the edges of my mind. 10. Why should anyone read yet another book on al-Qaeda? There have been several good books on al-Qaeda and the Middle East over the past decade, but many of these are more about the United States in Iraq or the United States in Afghanistan than they are about these places and the people that inhabit them. The Last Refuge tells the other side of this story, illustrating the rise, fall and ultimate resurrection of al-Qaeda in Yemen. It tells the stories of the men the United States is fighting abroad and how the United States is going to fight these wars of the future. It is less about policies than personalities.
  • United States
    You Might Have Missed: Iran, Red Lines, Drones, and Dieting
    Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: "I believe that, faced with a clear red line, Iran will back down.” (September 27, 2012) Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, “I think that this whole matter of red lines should be made, but not publicly.” (September 27, 2012) Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor, “I don’t want to set red lines or deadlines for myself.” (September 14, 2012) “Rockets Galore,” The Economist, September 29, 2012. (3PA: A Hellfire drone missile costs $115,000 and weighs 50 kilograms. The new Spike missile costs $5,000 and weighs less than 3 kilograms.) Peter W. Singer, “After-Action Report; It’d Be Stupid But Not Disastrous,” TIME, September 28, 2012. (3PA: This five-part series on the effects of defense sequestration is a solid and balanced analysis.) Department of Defense, Press Briefing with George Little, September 25, 2012. Q:  You said the secretary sees the mission moving forward in Afghanistan.  Just kind of been a tumultuous couple weeks here.  What are the metrics of success that you guys are most impressed with?  What are the things that tell you that that’s the case? LITTLE:  Well, partnered operations continue.  Overall levels of violence are down.  We see Afghans more and more in the lead for their own operations and for their own governance.  That is the goal here.  That is what we’re trending toward.  At the end of the day, that’s how success is going to be defined.  It’s whether Afghans can provide for their own security and govern themselves. If anyone thinks that the metric of success is a surrender ceremony on the deck of a ship, they’re wrong.  The metric of success in Afghanistan is enabling the Afghans, Afghan political institutions, and the Afghan national security forces, to create a brighter future for Afghanistan.  That is the point and that is the goal of our strategy. (3PA: How would the Pentagon define “a brighter future for Afghanistan,” or know when they’ve achieved that objective?) Q:  Iran says it has built and deployed a reconnaissance drone, the Shahed 129 they’re calling it.  It says it doubles the range of previous drones, and they say it’s like the RQ Sentinel drone that went down in Iranian territory in 2011.  Are you aware of this drone, of this -- of this deployment?  Can you verify it in any way?  And are you concerned about it in any way? LITTLE:  I’m not in a position to verify that claim one way or the other.  I think that we have the most sophisticated, elaborate remotely-piloted vehicles in the world. General Richard B. Myers, “How Junk Food in Schools Affects the Military,” Politico, September 24, 2012. Being overweight or obese has now become the leading medical reason why young adults cannot enlist in the military. The Defense Department estimates that 1 in 4 young adults is too overweight to enlist. When weight problems are combined with other disqualifying factors, like failing to finish high school or being convicted of a serious crime, an estimated 75 percent of Americans age 17 to 24 are not able to join the military. Casey L. Coombs, “Yemen to Get UAVs from the United States,” Aviation Week, September 26, 2012. An anonymous Yemeni defense official, who was not authorized to speak with the press, tells Aviation Week that Yemen is receiving four AeroVironment RQ-11 Raven UAVs. The 1.9-kg Raven is equipped with sensors for target acquisition, and infrared cameras capable of displaying persons carrying weapons. “This type of technology would be very appropriate for Yemen’s frontline military units because it provides real-time intelligence from the battlefield to launch strikes while minimizing troops’ exposure to surprise attacks,” according to Aysh Awas, director of security and strategic studies at Sheba, a think tank here in the Yemeni capital. Living Under Drones: Death, Injury, and Trauma to Civilians From U.S. Drone Practices in Pakistan, Stanford Law School and NYU School of Law, September 2012.  
  • United States
    UN Security Council Vows No Nuclear Attack on Mongolia
    On Monday, the five permanent members (P5) of the UN Security Council reaffirmed their promise not to attack Mongolia with nuclear weapons. In 1995, each of the P5 pledged not to use nuclear weapons against nonnuclear weapons states that signed and ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT); this was solidified when the Security Council voted 15-0 to pass Resolution 984.  In October 2000, the P5 specifically extended this “negative security assurance” to Mongolia when it declared its nuclear weapons-free status. According to the latest Military Balance, Mongolia has a defense budget of $38 million and an active-duty military comprising 8,900 army, 800 air force, and 800 construction troops. As the CIA notes, “There is no navy.” In what passes for arms control, the P5—who collectively maintain over 97 percent of nuclear weapons worldwide—have vowed not to use their arsenal against Mongolia. Meanwhile, P5 efforts “to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament”—as pledged thirty years ago in Article VI of the NPT—remain stalled. Instead of reassuring Mongolia, the P5 should focus on reducing their own nuclear arsenals. To learn more about the world’s nuclear powers, the Federation of the American Scientists maintains this useful chart, which draws on data provided by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Nuclear Notebook and Stockholm International Peace Research’s Yearbook.
  • United States
    You Might Have Missed: National Security Threats, Terrorism, and Gun Violence
    Saxby Chambliss, "The Threat From Within to Our National Security," Macon Telegraph, August 3, 2012. Our nation and our military are about to confront one of the biggest threats since World War II. It does not come in the form of a shadowy terrorist organization or a well-armed foreign foe. Instead, it is looming in the form of indiscriminate budget cuts that will strike on Jan. 1, 2013. (3PA: Defense sequestration would cut roughly $40 billion (or 7%) a year from the Pentagon’s $553 billion budget. The notion that this would be "one of the biggest threats since World War II" is preposterous. In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union had 2,000 long-range missiles pointed at the United States, which collectively held some 6,000 nuclear warheads. That’s a real national security threat.) Cameron McWhirter, “Protesters Break Into Nuclear Complex,” Wall Street Journal, August 1, 2012. The U.S. government stores weapons-grade uranium at a complex in Oak Ridge, Tenn., considered to be one of the most secure sites in the world. But last weekend, three aging peace activists—two men and an 82-year-old nun—cut through fences and eluded guards to throw human blood on the building where enriched uranium is stored. The protesters also hoisted banners, recited prayers and read from the Bible. The security breach prompted the facility, the Y-12 National Security Complex, to stop all nuclear activity Wednesday and go on "security stand down" for the first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, while investigators try to figure out how the protesters got past supposedly impenetrable defenses. The temporary stoppage was expected to end by next week. Daniel L. Byman, “Breaking the Bonds Between Al-Qa’ida and its Affiliate Organizations,” Brookings Institution, August 2012. Associated Press, “Top U.S. General: Venezuela Not a National Security Threat,” July 31, 2012. Fraser was asked if he thought Venezuela’s newly announced development of unmanned aerial vehicles and continued purchase of billions of dollars’ worth of weaponry, including anti-aircraft missiles from Russia and other nations, did not present a danger to his country. “From my standpoint, no, I don’t see it that way,” he told The Associated Press in a phone interview. “I don’t see them as a national security threat.” Hearing of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Nominations, July 31, 2012 SENATOR MENENDEZ:  All I hear is about the Pakistanis seeking an end to the drone attacks that have been the one successful effort in turning it over to them. You know if we’re going to be providing billions of dollars, then what is the commitment to the concurrent commitment here? MR. RICHARD OLSON:  On the question of drones, Senator, as you well know, the president has said that we will go after extremists and those who threaten us wherever we find them. It’s beyond the level of classification for this hearing to discuss those programs in any great detail, but I will if confirmed continue to follow the president’s direction on the question of defending our national interests. (3PA: In January, President Obama acknowledged that the United States conducts drone strikes in Pakistan when he stated: “Obviously a lot of these strikes have been in the FATA [Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan] going after al-Qaeda suspects.” It is disappointing that in his confirmation hearing to become the next U.S. ambassador to Pakistan, Richard Olson was unwilling to discuss the use of drones at all.) U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism 2011, July 31, 2012. Government Accountability Office, “Changes in the Nuclear Weapons Targeting Process Since 1991,” July 31, 2012. The fundamental objectives of U.S. nuclear deterrence policy have remained largely consistent since 1991, even as the threat environment and the size of the nuclear weapons stockpile have changed. The current process for developing nuclear targeting and employment guidance has remained consistent. However, the structure of the nuclear war plan, and the categories and number of targets in the plan, have changed. DOD continues to exercise civilian oversight of the targeting process. The indirect relationship between the targeting process and DOD’s determination of requirements for nuclear weapons and delivery systems also continues. Greg Miller, “Anti-Leak Measure Targets Background Briefings,” Washington Post, July 30, 2012. An anti-leak measure approved by a key Senate committee would all but eliminate a long-standing practice in Washington in which senior intelligence analysts occasionally provide what are known as background briefings for reporters. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Monday that the provision represents an attempt to “try to bring some order” to what many lawmakers regard as a disturbing lack of discipline in handling the nation’s secrets. “What we’re trying to do is just add responsibility to the chain of command within the government to try to be sure that information is not given out that is either compartmented or classified,” Feinstein said in an interview. Feinstein acknowledged that she knew of no evidence tying those leaks or others to background sessions, which generally deal broadly with analysts’ interpretations of developments overseas and avoid discussions of the operations of the CIA or other spy services. Jay Dickey and Mark Rosenberg, “We Won’t Know the Cause of Gun Violence Until We Look for It,” Washington Post, July 27, 2012. From 1986 to 1996, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sponsored high-quality, peer-reviewed research into the underlying causes of gun violence. People who kept guns in their homes did not — despite their hopes — gain protection, according to research published in the New England Journal of Medicine. Instead, residents in homes with a gun faced a 2.7-fold greater risk of homicide and a 4.8-fold greater risk of suicide. The National Rifle Association moved to suppress the dissemination of these results and to block funding of future government research into the causes of firearm injuries. (3PA: Read the short study by the New England Journal of Medicine.)
  • United States
    Would We Know if Iran Decides to Build a Bomb?
    The most important unanswered question about the heightened U.S.-Israel confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program is whether Iran’s political leadership will decide to pursue a nuclear weapon. The key judgments in the last declassified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the Iranian nuclear program found with “high confidence” that “Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program” in the fall of 2003, and this conviction remained with “moderate confidence” through mid-2007. U.S. officials believe that only one person holds the power to decide whether or not to pursue a bomb—meaning to enrich enough uranium to bomb-grade level that can be formed into sphere that could be compressed into a critical mass—the Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Testifying before the Senate Select Intelligence Committee in late January, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper stated: “Iran’s technical advances, particularly in uranium enrichment, strengthen our assessment that Iran is well-capable of producing enough highly-enriched uranium for a weapon if its political leaders, specifically the supreme leader himself, choose to do so.” Shortly thereafter, Clapper echoed this statement before the Senate Armed Services Committee: That is the intelligence community’s assessment, that that is an option that is still held out by the Iranians. And we believe the decision would be made by the supreme leader himself, and he would base that on a cost-benefit analysis in terms of -- I don’t think you want a nuclear weapon at any price. One month later, James Risen reported in the New York Times: “American intelligence analysts still believe that the Iranians have not gotten the go-ahead from Ayatollah Khamenei to revive the program. ‘That assessment,’ said one American official, ‘holds up really well.’" On Monday, however, Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak introduced a new observation that upends the previous understanding of this particular redline: “[Israel and the U.S.] both know that Khamenei did not yet ordered, actually, to give a weapon, but that he is determined to deceit and defy the whole world.” When asked, “What does that mean, that the ayatollah has not given the order to build a nuclear bomb?” Barak replied: “It’s something technical. He did not tell his people start and build it—a weapon—an explodable device. We think that we understand why he does not give this order. He believes that he is penetrated through our intelligence and he strongly feels that if he tries to order, we will know it, we and you and some other intelligence services will know about it and it might end up with a physical action against it. So he prefers to, first of all, make sure that through redundancy, through an accumulation of more lowly enriched uranium, more medium level enriched uranium and more centrifuges and more sites, better protection, that he can reach a point, which I call the zone of immunity, beyond which Israel might not be technically capable of launching a surgical operation.” If the United States accepts this logic—that the Supreme Leader would never issue the formal order to pursue a nuclear weapon for fear of foreign detection—then what was once a distinct and identifiable redline for U.S. intelligence no longer exists. In other words, any U.S. or Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program will target a latent capability that might eventually lead to a weapon protected by Barak’s ill-defined zone of immunity, but not an actual nuclear weapons program. This is a tremendous shift by Israel over how we would know if Iran decides to pursue the bomb. Before the Obama administration decides to go to war, Congress, journalists, and U.S. citizens should demand answers to the following questions: Are violations of the NPT, UN Security Council resolutions, and ongoing inadequate cooperation with the IAEA sufficient grounds for suspecting that Iran will soon achieve nuclear weapons capability? Does the Obama administration accept Barak’s new principle, contradicting Clapper’s earlier assessment that the supreme leader’s decision is paramount? It is unlikely that Iran would needlessly test a nuclear weapon, since it would not be required to verify that it worked. What sort of credible information will the Obama administration declassify and make public that would justify a preventive attack on Iran?
  • United States
    A U.S.-Iran Naval Clash Is Not Inevitable
    The headline of today’s Washington Post reads, "Iran Expands Ability to Strike U.S. Navy in Gulf." The piece describes Persian Gulf war games, paranoid comments by regional officials, and hollow threats from Iranian officials. By now, when an Iranian official threatens the United States, we should call it what it is: ritual. Just yesterday, an anonymous official warned, "If the Americans’ futile cyber attacks do not stop, it will face a teeth-breaking response." While novel dental threats might now be part of Iran’s asymmetric defensive strategy, Western media elevates such blustery rhetoric to the headline news, rewarding the Iranian regime with the strategic communications coup that it desperately seeks. As a State Department spokesperson noted last month with refreshing honesty: "The Venezuelans make lots of extravagant claims. So do the Iranians." When reading about the U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf or the serial threats from Iran, it is worth keeping two things in mind. First, as Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, then-chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), stated in February, “The [DIA] assesses Iran is unlikely to initiate or intentionally provoke a conflict.” In other words, the government of Iran is not looking to start a war with the United States. This is a smart call, given that the Iranian defense budget of $9 billion is less than 2 percent of the U.S. military budget of $553 billion. Iran fared poorly in its clash with the U.S. Navy in April 1988—and it would face a similar fate today. Second, short of a third party launching a preemptive strike, it is highly unlikely that the U.S. and Iranian navies will fight each other. In March, the chief of naval operations, Admiral Jonathan Greenert, described the Iranian navy as “professional and courteous.” Last month, Admiral Greenert echoed his earlier characterization, adding, " They have been…committing to the rules of the road—I’m talking about the Iranian navy. We have had some time before when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has tended to maybe close a little too close for that. But frankly, that hasn’t happened recently. And when I say ‘recently,’ I’d say in the last couple of months." After a U.S. Navy fleet replenishment oiler fired on an Indian fishing vessel earlier this month, a U.S. official went to great lengths to say, "I can’t emphasize enough this has nothing to do with Iran." The most likely instigator of an outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran would be an Israeli attack on Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program. U.S. intelligence officials do not believe that they will receive prior warning of such an attack on Iran, as Tel Aviv has never done so in the past. Last month, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Martin Dempsey described a potential Israeli strike as "destabilizing.” He continued, “I wouldn’t suggest, sitting here today, that we’ve persuaded them that our view is the correct view and that they are acting in an ill-advised fashion.” At present, senior U.S. officials are more concerned about a bolt-from-the-blue Israeli attack of Iran than ever before. The revolving door of Obama administration officials heading to Israel underscores a position revealed recently by David Sanger: "The core of the American argument [to Israel] was simple: attack Iran, and you set the program back a few years, but you solve nothing. ’We wanted to make it abundantly clear that an attack would just drive the program more underground’ [said one U.S. official]." When you read front-page headlines like "Soaring Tension in the Gulf," it is important to remember that both the United States and Iran have no intention of going to war. However, the critical—and unresolved—question is when might Israel take military action against Iran, and what would be the subsequent costs and consequences for U.S. military and national interests in the region? Despite a decade of U.S.-Israeli dialogue on the Iranian nuclear program, no one knows the answers.
  • Defense and Security
    Guest Post: Iran’s Nuclear Program: The Unintended Consequences of Nuclear Exports
    Matthew Fuhrmann is assistant professor of political science at Texas A&M University and a former Stanton nuclear security fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of Atomic Assistance: How “Atoms for Peace” Programs Cause Nuclear Insecurity. Iran’s nuclear program poses a threat to many nations—particularly Israel and the United States. Yet, it is sometimes forgotten that Washington was an early supporter of Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. The United States provided peaceful nuclear assistance to Iran from 1957 to 1979, when the two states were allies. Washington exported the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR), enriched uranium to fuel it, and “hot cells,” which can be used to produce plutonium—a critical ingredient for making nuclear weapons. All of this aid was provided for civilian uses, but it ended up indirectly augmenting Iran’s nuclear weapons program. For example, from 1988 to 1992 Iran conducted covert plutonium reprocessing experiments using fuel pellets irradiated in the TRR. The Iranian experience exposes a problem known as the dual-use dilemma: because nuclear technology has both peaceful and military applications, nuclear energy aid provides a potential foundation for a bomb program. However, this danger has not deterred the United States from providing nuclear energy assistance to many countries. Today, for instance, Washington is in the midst of negotiating agreements with Jordan and Vietnam that would permit the sharing of nuclear technology, materials, and know-how. Deals such as these could be a recipe for the further spread of nuclear weapons. In a new book, I explore the relationship between peaceful nuclear assistance and nuclear proliferation. Based on an analysis of global nuclear commerce from 1945 to 2000, I show that states are much more likely to covet (and successfully build) nuclear weapons when they accumulate atomic assistance—particularly if they experience an international crisis after receiving aid. Iran is just one of several proliferators that benefited from nuclear energy assistance. India conducted a nuclear test in 1974 using plutonium that was produced in a Canadian-supplied civilian reactor. Iraq probably intended to use a French-supplied civilian facility known as “Osiraq” for military purposes before it was bombed by Israel in 1981. And scientists from North Korea and South Africa received training—from the Soviet Union and the United States, respectively—under the auspices of civilian nuclear cooperation that ultimately facilitated nuclear proliferation. The international community has instituted a variety of measures—including International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards— to limit the proliferation potential of peaceful nuclear aid. Yet, as Iran, Iraq, Libya, South Korea, and others have shown, motivated states can circumvent existing rules and regulations with relative ease. Why, then, do countries provide peaceful nuclear assistance? Suppliers typically offer aid to “buy” cooperation from the recipient country. For example, the United States assisted Iran’s nuclear program to shore up its military alliance with Tehran and to influence Iranian policies on oil pricing. Nuclear exporters hope that they can reap the political and economic benefits of nuclear assistance without contributing to nuclear proliferation. Yet, in the long run, their gambles often backfire. The United States and other suppliers should revise their nuclear trade policies to prevent history from repeating itself. Requiring customers to refrain from building indigenous uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing plants (these facilities can produce bomb-grade materials) after accumulating relevant knowledge through peaceful nuclear assistance would be a particularly fruitful policy. Washington has so far expressed little enthusiasm about applying this policy across the board. However, swift action is needed to help prevent future crises like the one that is ongoing in Iran.
  • Military Operations
    How the Obama Administration Justifies Targeted Killings
    Despite almost ten years of operations and nearly four hundred airstrikes that killed an estimated three thousand people (both militants and civilians), both the Bush and Obama administrations have provided limited information about U.S. targeted killings policies. The scope and intensity of the strikes represent an undeclared Third War beyond Afghanistan and Iraq, for which policymakers offer adjectives (“surgical,” “discriminate,” targeted,” and “precise”) but refuse to directly address any questions. According to White House spokesperson Jay Carney in February, “I’m not going to discuss broadly or specifically supposed covert programs.” A year into office, the Obama administration began to authorize policy speeches about targeted killings. As David Sanger revealed in his recent book Confront and Conceal: Obama’s Secret Wars and Surprising Use of American Power: “By early 2010—a year after Obama had ordered a major increase in the pace of drone strikes in Pakistan, and as the success of that program in eliminating al-Qaeda’s middle management was becoming clear—the lawyers were giving the job of coming up with an acceptable public justification for [targeted killings].” Beginning with the speech given by Harold Koh in March 2010, there have been seven significant on-the-record statements or speeches that encompass the sole public rationale for U.S. targeted killings policy. When asked to articulate some aspect of this policy, administration staffers or officials will point you to one or all of these. In order to better understand the justification for U.S. targeted killings, I have posted the relevant selections with links to the full speeches below. Harold Koh, Legal Adviser, U.S. Department of State March 25, 2010: Annual Meeting of the American Society of International Law In the same way, in all of our operations involving the use of force, including those in the armed conflict with al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and associated forces, the Obama administration is committed by word and deed to conducting ourselves in accordance with all applicable law. With respect to the subject of targeting, which has been much commented upon in the media and international legal circles, there are obviously limits to what I can say publicly. What I can say is that it is the considered view of this administration—and it has certainly been my experience during my time as legal adviser—that U.S. targeting practices, including lethal operations conducted with the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, comply with all applicable law, including the laws of war. Second, some have challenged the very use of advanced weapons systems, such as unmanned aerial vehicles, for lethal operations. But the rules that govern targeting do not turn on the type of weapon system used, and there is no prohibition under the laws of war on the use of technologically advanced weapons systems in armed conflict-- such as pilotless aircraft or so-called smart bombs-- so long as they are employed in conformity with applicable laws of war. Indeed, using such advanced technologies can ensure both that the best intelligence is available for planning operations, and that civilian casualties are minimized in carrying out such operations. Third, some have argued that the use of lethal force against specific individuals fails to provide adequate process and thus constitutes unlawful extrajudicial killing. But a state that is engaged in an armed conflict or in legitimate self-defense is not required to provide targets with legal process before the state may use lethal force. Our procedures and practices for identifying lawful targets are extremely robust, and advanced technologies have helped to make our targeting even more precise. In my experience, the principles of distinction and proportionality that the United States applies are not just recited at meetings. They are implemented rigorously throughout the planning and execution of lethal operations to ensure that such operations are conducted in accordance with all applicable law. Fourth and finally, some have argued that our targeting practices violate domestic law, in particular, the long-standing domestic ban on assassinations. But under domestic law, the use of lawful weapons systems—consistent with the applicable laws of war—for precision targeting of specific high-level belligerent leaders when acting in self-defense or during an armed conflict is not unlawful, and hence does not constitute “assassination.”  In sum, let me repeat: as in the area of detention operations, this Administration is committed to ensuring that the targeting practices that I have described are lawful. Full Transcript John O. Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism September 16, 2011: Remarks at Harvard Law School First, our definition of the conflict. As the President has said many times, we are at war with al-Qa’ida. In an indisputable act of aggression, al-Qa’ida attacked our nation and killed nearly 3,000 innocent people. And as we were reminded just last weekend, al-Qa’ida seeks to attack us again. Our ongoing armed conflict with al-Qa’ida stems from our right—recognized under international law—to self defense. An area in which there is some disagreement is the geographic scope of the conflict. The United States does not view our authority to use military force against al-Qa’ida as being restricted solely to “hot” battlefields like Afghanistan. Because we are engaged in an armed conflict with al-Qa’ida, the United States takes the legal position that —in accordance with international law—we have the authority to take action against al-Qa’ida and its associated forces without doing a separate self-defense analysis each time. And as President Obama has stated on numerous occasions, we reserve the right to take unilateral action if or when other governments are unwilling or unable to take the necessary actions themselves. That does not mean we can use military force whenever we want, wherever we want. International legal principles, including respect for a state’s sovereignty and the laws of war, impose important constraints on our ability to act unilaterally—and on the way in which we can use force—in foreign territories. Others in the international community—including some of our closest allies and partners—take a different view of the geographic scope of the conflict, limiting it only to the “hot” battlefields. As such, they argue that, outside of these two active theatres, the United States can only act in self-defense against al-Qa’ida when they are planning, engaging in, or threatening an armed attack against U.S. interests if it amounts to an “imminent” threat. In practice, the U.S. approach to targeting in the conflict with al-Qa’ida is far more aligned with our allies’ approach than many assume. This Administration’s counterterrorism efforts outside of Afghanistan and Iraq are focused on those individuals who are a threat to the United States, whose removal would cause a significant – even if only temporary – disruption of the plans and capabilities of al-Qa’ida and its associated forces. Practically speaking, then, the question turns principally on how you define “imminence.” We are finding increasing recognition in the international community that a more flexible understanding of “imminence” may be appropriate when dealing with terrorist groups, in part because threats posed by non-state actors do not present themselves in the ways that evidenced imminence in more traditional conflicts. After all, al-Qa’ida does not follow a traditional command structure, wear uniforms, carry its arms openly, or mass its troops at the borders of the nations it attacks. Nonetheless, it possesses the demonstrated capability to strike with little notice and cause significant civilian or military casualties. Over time, an increasing number of our international counterterrorism partners have begun to recognize that the traditional conception of what constitutes an “imminent” attack should be broadened in light of the modern-day capabilities, techniques, and technological innovations of terrorist organizations. The convergence of our legal views with those of our international partners matters. The effectiveness of our counterterrorism activities depends on the assistance and cooperation of our allies—who, in ways public and private, take great risks to aid us in this fight. But their participation must be consistent with their laws, including their interpretation of international law. Again, we will never abdicate the security of the United States to a foreign country or refrain from taking action when appropriate. But we cannot ignore the reality that cooperative counterterrorism activities are a key to our national defense. The more our views and our allies’ views on these questions converge, without constraining our flexibility, the safer we will be as a country. Full Transcript President Barack Obama January 30, 2012: Google+ “Hangout” I want to make sure that the people understand actually that drones have not caused a huge amount of civilian casualties. For the most part, they have been very precise, precision strikes against al-Qaeda and their affiliates and we are very careful in terms of how its been applied. I think there is this perception somehow that we’re just sending in a whole bunch of strikes willy-nilly. This is a targeted, focused effort at people who are on a list of active terrorists who are trying to go in and harm Americans, hit American facilities, American bases, and so on. It is important for everybody to understand that this thing is kept on a very tight leash. It’s not a bunch of folks in a room somewhere just making decisions. It is also part and parcel of our overall authority when it comes to battling al-Qaeda. It is not something that is being used beyond that. We have to be judicious in how we use drones. But understand that probably our ability to respect the sovereignty of other countries and to limit our incursions into somebody else’s territory is enhanced by the fact that we are able to pinpoint strike an al-Qaeda operative in a place where the capacities of that military and that country might not be able to get them. Obviously a lot of these strikes have been in the Fataah and going after al-Qaeda suspects who are up in very tough terrain along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. For us to be able to get them in another way would involve probably a lot more intrusive military actions than the one we’re already engaging in. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t be careful about how we proceed on this and obviously I’m looking forward to a time where al-Qaeda is no longer an operative network and we can refocus a lot of our assets and attention on other issues. Full Video Jeh Johnson, General Counsel of the Department of Defense February 22, 2012: Dean’s Lecture at Yale Law School Should the legal assessment of targeting a single identifiable military objective be any different in 2012 than it was in 1943, when the U.S. Navy targeted and shot down over the Pacific the aircraft flying Admiral Yamamoto, the commander of the Japanese navy during World War Two, with the specific intent of killing him? Should we take a dimmer view of the legality of lethal force directed against individual members of the enemy, because modern technology makes our weapons more precise? As Harold stated two years ago, the rules that govern targeting do not turn on the type of weapon system used, and there is no prohibition under the law of war on the use of technologically advanced weapons systems in armed conflict, so long as they are employed in conformity with the law of war. Advanced technology can ensure both that the best intelligence is available for planning operations, and that civilian casualties are minimized in carrying out such operations. On occasion, I read or hear a commentator loosely refer to lethal force against a valid military objective with the pejorative term “assassination.” Like any American shaped by national events in 1963 and 1968, the term is to me one of the most repugnant in our vocabulary, and it should be rejected in this context. Under well-settled legal principles, lethal force against a valid military objective, in an armed conflict, is consistent with the law of war and does not, by definition, constitute an “assassination.” Fifth: as I stated at the public meeting of the ABA Standing Committee on Law and National Security, belligerents who also happen to be U.S. citizens do not enjoy immunity where non-citizen belligerents are valid military objectives. Reiterating principles from Ex Parte Quirin in 1942, the Supreme Court in 2004, in Hamdi v. Rumsfeld, stated that “[a] citizen, no less than an alien, can be ‘part of or supporting forces hostile to the United States or coalition partners’ and ‘engaged in an armed conflict against the United States.’” Sixth: contrary to the view of some, targeting decisions are not appropriate for submission to a court. In my view, they are core functions of the Executive Branch, and often require real-time decisions based on an evolving intelligence picture that only the Executive Branch may timely possess. I agree with Judge Bates of the federal district court in Washington, who ruled in 2010 that the judicial branch of government is simply not equipped to become involved in targeting decisions. Full Transcript Eric Holder, Attorney General March 5, 2012: Remarks at Northwestern University School of Law This principle has long been established under both U.S. and international law. In response to the attacks perpetrated – and the continuing threat posed – by al Qaeda, the Taliban, and associated forces, Congress has authorized the President to use all necessary and appropriate force against those groups. Because the United States is in an armed conflict, we are authorized to take action against enemy belligerents under international law. The Constitution empowers the President to protect the nation from any imminent threat of violent attack. And international law recognizes the inherent right of national self-defense. None of this is changed by the fact that we are not in a conventional war. Our legal authority is not limited to the battlefields in Afghanistan. Indeed, neither Congress nor our federal courts has limited the geographic scope of our ability to use force to the current conflict in Afghanistan. We are at war with a stateless enemy, prone to shifting operations from country to country. Over the last three years alone, al Qaeda and its associates have directed several attacks – fortunately, unsuccessful – against us from countries other than Afghanistan. Our government has both a responsibility and a right to protect this nation and its people from such threats. This does not mean that we can use military force whenever or wherever we want. International legal principles, including respect for another nation’s sovereignty, constrain our ability to act unilaterally. But the use of force in foreign territory would be consistent with these international legal principles if conducted, for example, with the consent of the nation involved – or after a determination that the nation is unable or unwilling to deal effectively with a threat to the United States. Furthermore, it is entirely lawful – under both United States law and applicable law of war principles – to target specific senior operational leaders of al Qaeda and associated forces. This is not a novel concept. In fact, during World War II, the United States tracked the plane flying Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto – the commander of Japanese forces in the attack on Pearl Harbor and the Battle of Midway – and shot it down specifically because he was on board. As I explained to the Senate Judiciary Committee following the operation that killed Osama bin Laden, the same rules apply today. Some have called such operations “assassinations.” They are not, and the use of that loaded term is misplaced. Assassinations are unlawful killings. Here, for the reasons I have given, the U.S. government’s use of lethal force in self defense against a leader of al Qaeda or an associated force who presents an imminent threat of violent attack would not be unlawful — and therefore would not violate the Executive Order banning assassination or criminal statutes. Now, it is an unfortunate but undeniable fact that some of the threats we face come from a small number of United States citizens who have decided to commit violent attacks against their own country from abroad. Based on generations-old legal principles and Supreme Court decisions handed down during World War II, as well as during this current conflict, it’s clear that United States citizenship alone does not make such individuals immune from being targeted. But it does mean that the government must take into account all relevant constitutional considerations with respect to United States citizens – even those who are leading efforts to kill innocent Americans. Of these, the most relevant is the Fifth Amendment’s Due Process Clause, which says that the government may not deprive a citizen of his or her life without due process of law. The Supreme Court has made clear that the Due Process Clause does not impose one-size-fits-all requirements, but instead mandates procedural safeguards that depend on specific circumstances. In cases arising under the Due Process Clause – including in a case involving a U.S. citizen captured in the conflict against al Qaeda – the Court has applied a balancing approach, weighing the private interest that will be affected against the interest the government is trying to protect, and the burdens the government would face in providing additional process. Where national security operations are at stake, due process takes into account the realities of combat. Here, the interests on both sides of the scale are extraordinarily weighty. An individual’s interest in making sure that the government does not target him erroneously could not be more significant. Yet it is imperative for the government to counter threats posed by senior operational leaders of al Qaeda, and to protect the innocent people whose lives could be lost in their attacks. Any decision to use lethal force against a United States citizen – even one intent on murdering Americans and who has become an operational leader of al-Qaeda in a foreign land – is among the gravest that government leaders can face. The American people can be – and deserve to be – assured that actions taken in their defense are consistent with their values and their laws. So, although I cannot discuss or confirm any particular program or operation, I believe it is important to explain these legal principles publicly. Let me be clear: an operation using lethal force in a foreign country, targeted against a U.S. citizen who is a senior operational leader of al Qaeda or associated forces, and who is actively engaged in planning to kill Americans, would be lawful at least in the following circumstances: First, the U.S. government has determined, after a thorough and careful review, that the individual poses an imminent threat of violent attack against the United States; second, capture is not feasible; and third, the operation would be conducted in a manner consistent with applicable law of war principles. The evaluation of whether an individual presents an “imminent threat” incorporates considerations of the relevant window of opportunity to act, the possible harm that missing the window would cause to civilians, and the likelihood of heading off future disastrous attacks against the United States. As we learned on 9/11, al Qaeda has demonstrated the ability to strike with little or no notice – and to cause devastating casualties. Its leaders are continually planning attacks against the United States, and they do not behave like a traditional military – wearing uniforms, carrying arms openly, or massing forces in preparation for an attack. Given these facts, the Constitution does not require the President to delay action until some theoretical end-stage of planning – when the precise time, place, and manner of an attack become clear. Such a requirement would create an unacceptably high risk that our efforts would fail, and that Americans would be killed. Whether the capture of a U.S. citizen terrorist is feasible is a fact-specific, and potentially time-sensitive, question. It may depend on, among other things, whether capture can be accomplished in the window of time available to prevent an attack and without undue risk to civilians or to U.S. personnel. Given the nature of how terrorists act and where they tend to hide, it may not always be feasible to capture a United States citizen terrorist who presents an imminent threat of violent attack. In that case, our government has the clear authority to defend the United States with lethal force. Of course, any such use of lethal force by the United States will comply with the four fundamental law of war principles governing the use of force. The principle of necessity requires that the target have definite military value. The principle of distinction requires that only lawful targets – such as combatants, civilians directly participating in hostilities, and military objectives – may be targeted intentionally. Under the principle of proportionality, the anticipated collateral damage must not be excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage. Finally, the principle of humanity requires us to use weapons that will not inflict unnecessary suffering. These principles do not forbid the use of stealth or technologically advanced weapons. In fact, the use of advanced weapons may help to ensure that the best intelligence is available for planning and carrying out operations, and that the risk of civilian casualties can be minimized or avoided altogether. Some have argued that the President is required to get permission from a federal court before taking action against a United States citizen who is a senior operational leader of al Qaeda or associated forces. This is simply not accurate. “Due process” and “judicial process” are not one and the same, particularly when it comes to national security. The Constitution guarantees due process, not judicial process. The conduct and management of national security operations are core functions of the Executive Branch, as courts have recognized throughout our history. Military and civilian officials must often make real-time decisions that balance the need to act, the existence of alternative options, the possibility of collateral damage, and other judgments – all of which depend on expertise and immediate access to information that only the Executive Branch may possess in real time. The Constitution’s guarantee of due process is ironclad, and it is essential – but, as a recent court decision makes clear, it does not require judicial approval before the President may use force abroad against a senior operational leader of a foreign terrorist organization with which the United States is at war – even if that individual happens to be a U.S. citizen. That is not to say that the Executive Branch has – or should ever have – the ability to target any such individuals without robust oversight. Which is why, in keeping with the law and our constitutional system of checks and balances, the Executive Branch regularly informs the appropriate members of Congress about our counterterrorism activities, including the legal framework, and would of course follow the same practice where lethal force is used against United States citizens. Now, these circumstances are sufficient under the Constitution for the United States to use lethal force against a U.S. citizen abroad – but it is important to note that the legal requirements I have described may not apply in every situation – such as operations that take place on traditional battlefields. Full Transcript Stephen W. Preston, CIA General Counsel April 10, 2012: Remarks at Harvard Law School Suppose that the CIA is directed to engage in activities to influence conditions abroad, in which the hand of the U.S. Government is to remain hidden, – in other words covert action – and suppose that those activities may include the use of force, including lethal force. How would such a program be structured so as to ensure that it is entirely lawful? Approaches will, of course, vary depending on the circumstances – there is no single, cookie-cutter approach – but I conceive of the task in terms of a very simple matrix. First is the issue of whether there is legal authority to act in the first place. Second, there is the issue of compliance with the law in carrying out the action. For each of these issues, we would look first, and foremost, to U.S. law. But we would also look to international law principles. So envision a four-box matrix with “U.S. Law” and “International Law” across the top, and “Authority to Act” and “Compliance in Execution” down the side. With a thorough legal review directed at each of the four boxes, we would make certain that all potentially relevant law is properly considered in a systematic and comprehensive fashion. Now, when I say “we,” I don’t mean to suggest that these judgments are confined to the Agency. To the contrary, as the authority for covert action is ultimately the President’s, and covert action programs are carried out by the Director and the Agency at and subject to the President’s direction, Agency counsel share their responsibilities with respect to any covert action with their counterparts at the National Security Council. When warranted by circumstances, we – CIA and NSC – may refer a legal issue to the Department of Justice. Or we may solicit input from our colleagues at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the Department of State, or the Department of Defense, as appropriate. Getting back to my simple matrix … Let’s start with the first box: Authority to Act under U.S. Law. First, we would confirm that the contemplated activity is authorized by the President in the exercise of his powers under Article II of the U.S. Constitution, for example, the President’s responsibility as Chief Executive and Commander-in-Chief to protect the country from an imminent threat of violent attack. This would not be just a one-time check for legal authority at the outset. Our hypothetical program would be engineered so as to ensure that, through careful review and senior-level decision-making, each individual action is linked to the imminent threat justification. A specific congressional authorization might also provide an independent basis for the use of force under U.S. law. In addition, we would make sure that the contemplated activity is authorized by the President in accordance with the covert action procedures of the National Security Act of 1947, such that Congress is properly notified by means of a Presidential Finding. Next we look at Authority to Act with reference to International Law Principles. Here we need look no further than the inherent right of national self-defense, which is recognized by customary international law and, specifically, in Article 51 of the United Nations Charter. Where, for example, the United States has already been attacked, and its adversary has repeatedly sought to attack since then and is actively plotting to attack again, then the United States is entitled as a matter of national self-defense to use force to disrupt and prevent future attacks. The existence of an armed conflict might also provide an additional justification for the use of force under international law. Let’s move on to Compliance in Execution under U.S. Law. First, we would make sure all actions taken comply with the terms dictated by the President in the applicable Finding, which would likely contain specific limitations and conditions governing the use of force. We would also make sure all actions taken comply with any applicable Executive Order provisions, such as the prohibition against assassination in Twelve-Triple-Three. Beyond Presidential directives, the National Security Act of 1947 provides, quote, “[a] Finding may not authorize any action that would violate the Constitution or any statute of the United States.” This crucial provision would be strictly applied in carrying out our hypothetical program. In addition, the Agency would have to discharge its obligation under the congressional notification provisions of the National Security Act to keep the intelligence oversight committees of Congress “fully and currently informed” of its activities. Picture a system of notifications and briefings – some verbal, others written; some periodic, others event-specific; some at a staff level, others for members. Full Transcript John O. Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism April 30, 2012: “The Ethics and Efficacy of the President’s Counterterrorism Strategy” So let me say it as simply as I can. Yes, in full accordance with the law—and in order to prevent terrorist attacks on the United States and to save American lives—the United States Government conducts targeted strikes against specific al-Qa’ida terrorists, sometimes using remotely piloted aircraft, often referred to publicly as drones. And I’m here today because President Obama has instructed us to be more open with the American people about these efforts. Broadly speaking, the debate over strikes targeted at individual members of al-Qa’ida has centered on their legality, their ethics, the wisdom of using them, and the standards by which they are approved. With the remainder of my time today, I would like to address each of these in turn. First, these targeted strikes are legal. Attorney General Holder, Harold Koh and Jeh Johnson have all addressed this question at length. To briefly recap, as a matter of domestic law, the Constitution empowers the President to protect the nation from any imminent threat of attack. The Authorization for Use of Military Force—the AUMF—passed by Congress after the September 11th attacks authorizes the president "to use all necessary and appropriate force" against those nations, organizations and individuals responsible for 9/11. There is nothing in the AUMF that restricts the use of military force against al-Qa’ida to Afghanistan. As a matter of international law, the United States is in an armed conflict with al-Qa’ida, the Taliban, and associated forces, in response to the 9/11 attacks, and we may also use force consistent with our inherent right of national self-defense. There is nothing in international law that bans the use of remotely piloted aircraft for this purpose or that prohibits us from using lethal force against our enemies outside of an active battlefield, at least when the country involved consents or is unable or unwilling to take action against the threat. Second, targeted strikes are ethical. Without question, the ability to target a specific individual—from hundreds or thousands of miles away—raises profound questions. Here, I think it’s useful to consider such strikes against the basic principles of the law of war that govern the use of force. Full Transcript
  • United States
    You Might Have Missed: Drones, Targeted Killings, and Nuclear Weapons
    Government Accountability Office, State and DOD Face Challenges in Finalizing Support and Security Capabilities, June 28, 2012. The Departments of State (State) and Defense (DOD) planned for a civilian-led presence in Iraq consisting of more than 16,000 personnel at 14 sites in fiscal year 2012. As of May 2012, State and DOD were reassessing the Mission Iraq presence, and State had a plan to reduce the presence to 11,500 personnel at 11 sites by the end of fiscal year 2013. Even with the reductions, Mission Iraq would remain the largest U.S. diplomatic presence in the world. State and DOD allocated an estimated $4 billion for the civilian-led presence for fiscal year 2012, 93 percent of which was for security and support costs. In addition, State requested $1.9 billion in police and military assistance and $471 million in other foreign assistance for fiscal year 2012. AFP, “Yemeni Foreign Minister Admits U.S. Drones Used Against Militants,” Al Arabiya, June 27, 2012. Angel Gonzalez, “Expanded Oil Drilling Helps U.S. Wean Itself From Mideast,” Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2012. By 2020, nearly half of the crude oil America consumes will be produced at home, while 82% will come from this side of the Atlantic, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. By 2035, oil shipments from the Middle East to North America "could almost be nonexistent," the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries recently predicted, partly because more efficient car engines and a growing supply of renewable fuel will help curb demand. UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), Report Issued on Inter-Communal Violence in Jonglei, June 25, 2012. Ken Dilanian, “Congress Keeps Closer Watch on CIA Drone Strikes,” Los Angeles Times, June 25, 2012. Once a month, a group of staff members from the House and Senate intelligence committees drives across the Potomac River to CIA headquarters in Virginia, assembles in a secure room and begins the grim task of watching videos of the latest drone strikes in Pakistan and Yemen. The regular review of some of the most closely held video in the CIA’s possession is part of a marked increase in congressional attention paid to the agency’s targeted killing program over the last three years. The oversight, which has not previously been detailed, began largely at the instigation of Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, officials said. The lawmakers and aides with the intelligence oversight committees have a level of access shared only by President Obama, his top aides and a small number of CIA officials. In addition to watching video, the legislative aides review intelligence that was used to justify each drone strike. They also sometimes examine telephone intercepts and after-the-fact evidence, such as the CIA’s assessment of who was hit. Phil Stewart, “Strikes on al-Qaeda Leave Only ‘Handful’ of Top Targets,” Reuters, June 22, 2012. The U.S. defense chief visited Saudi Arabia on Wednesday and after paying U.S. condolences over the death of the late crown prince, spoke about al Qaeda with one of his sons, Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who has run the kingdom’s operations against al Qaeda as a deputy interior minister. "I asked him the question - as a result of the bin Laden raid, as a result of what we’ve done to their leadership, where are we with al Qaeda," Panetta recounted, adding that al Qaeda and bin Laden "came out of Saudi Arabia." "Bin Nayef said, ‘For the first time, what I’m seeing is that young people are no longer attracted to al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia.’" David S. Cloud, “U.S. Weighs Plan to Send Military Aircraft to Aid Yemen,” Los Angeles Times, June 21, 2012. Stephanie Nebahay, “UN Investigator Decries U.S. Use of Killer Drones,” Reuters, June 19, 2012. Christof Heyns, U.N. special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, urged Washington to clarify the basis under international law of the policy, in a report issued overnight to the United Nations Human Rights Council. The 47-member Geneva forum is to hold a debate later on Tuesday. (3PA: For the long history of special rapporteurs demanding that U.S. officials answer questions about the U.S. targeted killing policy, click here.) Brendan McGarry, “Drones Most Accident-Prone U.S. Air Force Craft: BGOV Barometer,” Bloomberg, June 18, 2012. The BGOV Barometer shows Northrop’s Global Hawk and General Atomics’s Predator and Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles have had a combined 9.31 accidents for every 100,000 hours of flying. That’s the highest rate of any category of aircraft and more than triple the fleet-wide average of 3.03, according to military data compiled by Bloomberg. The Air Force in a 15-year period through Sept. 30 recorded 129 accidents involving its medium- and high-altitude drones: the MQ-1 Predator, MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-4 Global Hawk. The figures include accidents that resulted in at least $500,000 in damage or destroyed aircraft during missions around the globe. Nic Robertson, Paul Cruickshank, and Jomana Karadsheh, “Libyan Official: U.S. Drones Seeking Jihadists in Libya,” CNN.com, June 7, 2012. A senior Libyan official told CNN that the U.S. is flying surveillance missions with drones over suspected jihadist training camps in eastern Libya because of concerns over rising activity by al Qaeda and like-minded groups in the region but said that to the best of his knowledge, they had not been used to fire missiles at militant training camps in the area. Russell Rumbaugh, Resolving Ambiguity: Costing Nuclear Weapons, Stimson Center, June 5, 2012. (3PA: The United States has spent at least $8.7 trillion on its nuclear weapons arsenal since 1940. This report estimates that the U.S. government spends $31 billion annually on nuclear weapons across the various agencies. The United States is projected to spend more than $210 billion on nuclear weapons over the next decade.) Department of Defense Report to Congress on Future Unmanned Aircraft Systems Training, Operations, and Sustainability, April 2012. Benjamin E. Goldsmith and Yusaku Horiuchi, “In Search of Soft Power: Does Foreign Public Opinion Matter for U.S. Foreign Policy?” World Politics, July 2012.
  • United States
    You Might Have Missed: Drones, Israel’s Nuclear Weapons, and "Big Boy Pants"
    Nick Paumgarten, “The World of Surveillance,” The New Yorker, May 14, 2012. Patrick Egan, president of the Silicon Valley chapter of the Association for Unmanned Systems International: "The first time a drone Tases the wrong dude at a Phish concert, you’re going to have problems." (3PA: This is a breezy and industry-friendly look at the increase of domestic drones.) Jay Solomon, “Mideast Nuclear Meeting in Doubt,” Wall Street Journal, May 10, 2012. Plans for a United Nations-backed conference aimed at ridding the Middle East of nuclear weapons are unraveling because of political upheaval in the region and diplomatic sparring over suspected nuclear-weapons programs in Iran and Israel, said officials involved in the event’s preparations. The conference, tentatively set for December in Helsinki, would mark the first meeting of Mideast states solely focused on establishing a nuclear-weapons-free zone in the region. (3PA: In 2010, all 189 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) signatories agreed to hold this conference by the end of 2012. India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan are not signatories to the NPT.) Anshel Pfeffer, “Israel’s New Submarines Geared at Tackling Rising MidEast Threats from the Sea,” Haaretz, May 10, 2012. (3PA: Along with the test of Israel’s Jericho III ballistic missile, which is believed to be nuclear capable and have a range of 3-4,000 miles (reaching all of Iran), these new submarines further expand Israel’s nuclear weapons capability.) Jim Michaels, “U.S. Military Snipers Are Changing Warfare,” USA Today, May 9, 2012. Snipers have quietly emerged as one of the most effective but least understood weapons in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Advancements in technology and training have made them deadlier than in any previous generation. Their ability to deliver accurate shots minimizes collateral damage—a key factor in counterinsurgency—and they are often more effective than much ballyhooed drones at secretly collecting intelligence. Julian E. Barnes and Adam Entous, “U.S. Seeks Faster Deployment,” Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2012. U.S. military leaders have developed new proposals to speed the deployment of elite American special-operations forces to a growing number of the world’s trouble spots, advancing the Obama administration’s emerging approach to armed involvement abroad. Under the new military plan, U.S. special-operations forces would be deployed either as strike groups or trainers for local armed forces. The proposal fits with a new Pentagon military strategy put in place by President Barack Obama in January that advocates greater use of special-operations forces. In addition to their flexibility, special units are attractive because they cost less than conventional forces and carry fewer risks of long-term entanglements. The new military strategy also emphasizes other small-force approaches to global conflicts, including unmanned aircraft and partnerships with host countries. Secretary Panetta Interview with Judy Woodruff at the Pentagon, May 3, 2012. MS. WOODRUFF:  Pakistan.  It was acknowledged this week that the drone strikes have been underway for some time against targets in Pakistan.  Are those going to continue no matter what the government of Pakistan desires and wants in that regard? SEC. PANETTA:  Well, you know, without referring to those specific operations because they still remain covert operations -- MS. WOODRUFF:  But they were acknowledged.  John Brennan. SEC. PANETTA:  There was some acknowledgement of the fact that, you know, that they’re used but the basic operations remain sensitive and they remain classified.  But let me just say this.  We were attacked.  The United States was attacked on 9/11.  And we know who attacked us, we know that al-Qaida was behind it, and we are going to do everything we can, use whatever operations we have to, in order to make sure that we protect this country and make sure that that kind of attack never happens again. MS. WOODRUFF:  It sounds like you’re saying they’ll continue. SEC. PANETTA:  The United States is going to defend itself under any circumstances. Transcript of “Hard Measures: Ex-CIA Head Defends Post-9/11 Tactics,” CBS News 60 Minutes, April 29, 2012. Lesley Stahl: Did the psychologist, did he tell you how long it was going to take, if you use these techniques, to break Abu Zubaydah and anybody else that you might capture? Jose Rodriguez [Director of the CIA Counter Terrorism Center]: You know, he had speculated that within 30 days we would probably be able to get the information that we wanted, yes. But before moving forward, Jose Rodriguez got his superiors, right up to the president - to sign off on a set of those techniques, including waterboarding. Jose Rodriguez: We needed to get everybody in government to put their big boy pants on and provide the authorities that we needed. Lesley Stahl: Their big boy pants on-- Jose Rodriguez: Big boy pants. Let me tell you, I had had a lot of experience in the agency where we had been left to hold the bag. And I was not about to let that happen for the people that work for me. Lesley Stahl: There wasn’t gonna be any deniability on this one? Jose Rodriguez: There was not gonna be any deniability. And I tell you something. In August of 2002, I felt I had all the authorities that I needed, all the approvals that I needed. The atmosphere in the country was different. Everybody wanted us to save American lives. The authorities came from the Justice Department in an opinion, later dubbed one of "the torture memos" - that detailed what was permissible. (3PA: On Saturday, after Rodriguez’s “big boy pants” line was used in 60 Minutes commercials, five suspects in the 9/11 terrorist plot were arraigned at a military tribunal in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.  At one point during the hearing, as Air Force Captain Michael Schwartz—an attorney for Walid Bin Attash—explained why his client refused to wear headphones for court translations, military officials censored Schwartz’s comments with a white-noise button that lasted forty seconds. Four days later, the Pentagon released the portion of Capt. Schwartz’s blocked comments: “The reason for that is the torture that my client was subjected to by the men and women wearing the big-boy pants down at the CIA, it makes it impossible…”) Naci H. Mocan, Colin Cannonier, “Empowering Women Through Education: Evidence from Sierra Leone,” The National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2012. In this section we investigate the extent to which the increase in educational attainment due to the FPE program has impacted men’s attitudes regarding women’s well–being. Table 6 displays the descriptive statistics for men. A comparison between men and women reveals an interesting and surprising picture. For example, while 56 percent of women indicated that a wife would be justified in refusing sex when she is tired (see Table 1), 68 percent of men believe that such a refusal is justified. Similarly, the proportion who thinks that a wife is justified in refusing sex if the husband has an STD is higher among men than women. Along the same lines, the proportion of men who think that wife beating is justified is lower than the proportion of women who think the same (0.23 vs. 0.36), and the proportion of individuals who think that female genital mutilation should be discontinued is higher among men than women (0.38 vs. 0.30). These are surprising findings because one would expect that the rate of support for the statements in favor of women’s well-being would be higher among women. (pg. 20-21) We find that an increase in education changes women’s preferences. Specifically, an additional year of schooling makes women more likely to declare that a wife is justified in refusing sex when she is tired or when the husband has a sexually transmitted disease. The same increase in schooling makes women more likely to disagree with the statement that wife beating is justified and more likely to declare that the practice of female genital mutilation should be stopped. These results indicate that education empowers women because an increase in education makes women more intolerant of practices that conflict with their well-being. An increase in education also reduces the number of desired children and increases the propensity to use modern contraception and to be tested for AIDS. (pg. 23-24)
  • United States
    You Might Have Missed: Drones, Threat Inflation, and Corruption
    Greg Miller, “Broader Drone Tactics Sought,” Washington Post, April 19, 2012. The CIA is seeking authority to expand its covert drone campaign in Yemen by launching strikes against terrorism suspects even when it does not know the identities of those who could be killed, U.S. officials said. Securing permission to use these “signature strikes” would allow the agency to hit targets based solely on intelligence indicating patterns of suspicious behavior, such as imagery showing militants gathering at known al-Qaeda compounds or unloading explosives. Some U.S. officials have voiced concern that such incidents could become more frequent if the CIA is given the authority to use signature strikes. “How discriminating can they be?” asked a senior U.S. official familiar with the proposal. Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen “is joined at the hip” with a local insurgency whose main goal is to oust the country’s government, the official said. “I think there is the potential that we would be perceived as taking sides in a civil war.” CNN/ORC Poll on North Korea, Iran, and Syria, April 18, 2012. (3PA: According to a poll of 1,015 adult Americans last week, more Americans think that Iran is a “very serious” or “moderately serious” threat today (81 percent) than of the Soviet Union in 1985 (76 percent).  In 1985, the Soviet Union had 39,000 nuclear weapons, which included perhaps 10,000 warheads that could have reached the United States via missile, submarine, or long-range bomber. Iran has neither nuclear weapons nor the means of delivery to the United States.) Colonel Michael Eastman, “The Risk of Exaggerating the China Threat,” Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2012. Precision air strikes remain an option, but without ground forces we forfeit the ability to detain terrorists and extract intelligence. And as the moral legitimacy of remote strikes comes under greater attack from the international community, sole reliance on them will erode support for our strategic objectives. Javier Blas, “High Oil Prices Shield Iran From Sanctions,” Financial Times, April 17, 2012. The Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), a London-based think-tank, estimates that Iran will earn $56bn selling its crude this year—its third-highest earnings ever—even after factoring in the loss of roughly a third of its export volume due to sanctions. Brian J. Lepore, “Border Security: Observations on Costs, Benefits, and Challenges of a Defense Department Role in Helping to Secure the Southwest Land Border,” Government Accountability Office, April 17, 2012. We also reported on the cost factors related to deploying manned aircraft and unmanned aerial systems. DOD officials did not report any use of unmanned aerial systems for border security missions because these systems were deployed abroad. DOD officials, however, did provide us with cost factors for the Predator and Reaper unmanned aerial systems. Specifically, in fiscal year 2011, the DOD Comptroller reported that a Predator and a Reaper cost $859 and $1,456 per flight hour, respectively. With regard to manned aircraft, DOD provided cost factors for a Blackhawk helicopter and a C-12 aircraft…For example, in fiscal year 2011, DOD reported that a Blackhawk helicopter and a C-12 aircraft cost $5,897 and $1,370 per flight hour, respectively. Sudarsan Raghavan, “In Africa, U.S. Troops Moving Slowly Against Joseph Kony and His Militia,” Washington Post, April 16, 2012. According to Human Rights Watch, Uganda’s military has committed numerous abuses in its quest for Kony in the north of the country, including killings, routine beatings, rapes, and prolonged and arbitrary detention of civilians. Olara Otunnu, a former U.N. undersecretary general, has publicly described the Ugandan army’s role as tantamount to genocide. But the U.S. presence has brought one change here, community leaders say: The Ugandans appear to be showing more restraint. Sexual Assault Prevention and Response: Annual Report 2011, U.S. Department of Defense. For FY2011, incidences of sexual assault increased by 1 percent in 2011, and by 16 percent over the past five years. (p. 56) The number of sexual assaults reported to DoD authorities in FY11 does not necessarily reflect the number of sexual assaults that may have occurred in that FY. Civilian research indicates victims only report a small fraction of sexual assaults to law enforcement. For example, of the 1.1 million U.S. civilian women estimated to have experienced nonconsensual vaginal, oral or anal penetration in 2005, only about 173,800 (16%) ever reported the matter to police. For the estimated 673,000 U.S. civilian college-aged women who experienced nonconsensual vaginal, oral, or anal penetration, only about 77,395 (11.5%) reported it to the police. (It should be noted that the definition of sexual assault used in this research is narrower than the DoD definition of sexual assault.) This reporting behavior is mirrored in the U.S. Armed Forces. As noted in the FY10 Annual Report on Sexual Assault in the Military, the Department estimates that 2,617 (14%) of the 19,000 Service members who are estimated to have experienced one of the various offenses captured in the DoD definition of sexual assault reported the matter to a DoD official in FY10. (p. 28) Lisa Daniel, “Panetta, Dempsey Announce Initiatives to Stop Sexual Assault,” American Forces Press Service, April 16, 2012. One Defense Department initiative will elevate the level of investigation for the most serious sexual assault allegations. Local unit commanders will be required to report allegations of rape, forcible sodomy and sexual assault, as well as attempts of those offenses, to a special court-martial convening authority, usually a colonel or Navy captain. That change will ensure that sexual assault cases receive high-level attention and that cases remain in the chain of command, Panetta said. The initiatives also include: Establishing with congressional approval a “special victims’ unit” within each service composed of specially trained experts in evidence collection, interviewing and working with victims; Requiring that sexual assault policies be explained to all service members within 14 days of their entry into active duty; Allowing National Guard and Reserve personnel who have been sexually assaulted to remain on active duty status to obtain the treatment and support afforded to active-duty members; Requiring a record of the outcome of disciplinary and administrative proceedings related to sexual assault and retaining the records centrally; Requiring commanders to conduct annual organizational climate assessments to measure whether they are meeting the department’s goal of a culture of professionalism and zero tolerance of sexual assault; Enhancing training programs for sexual assault prevention, including training for new military commanders in handling sexual assault matters; and Mandating wider public dissemination of available sexual assault resources, such as DOD’s “Safe Helpline,” a 24/7 helpline via Web, phone or text message operated by the nonprofit Rape, Abuse, and Incest National Network. Daily Press Briefing, U.S. State Department, April 13, 2012. QUESTION: Mark, there are four major demands [made by the Pakistan Parliament]. One, are you ready to apologize? They’re asking for the 24 Pakistani soldiers who were killed. Two, stop all the drone and other attacks. And three, that Pakistani should be treated just like you treat India. And fourth, finally, that Pakistan should be a given a nuclear – civil nuclear just like to India. MR. TONER: Goyal, those are a nice try to get me to negotiate and talk about that ongoing relationship from the podium, but let’s let us sit down with our senior officials, sit down with Pakistan’s senior officials, and discuss it. QUESTION: No, this is what -- MR. TONER: Sure, Goyal. QUESTION: Sorry. This is what I am saying that this is what has been going on in the media in Pakistan every day and in discussions among those politicians and all that. That’s -- MR. TONER: No, I think we’re aware of some of the concerns that the parliamentary review raised. And they’re – frankly, some of them are not new to us, so we’re going to engage. QUESTION: You said that you’d talk about the breadth of the whole thing, correct? That would be every subject that you’re willing to talk about with them? MR. TONER: I don’t know if we would talk about every subject under the sun. We’d talk about -- QUESTION: No, no. Every subject that they raised, you’re willing to talk about, including -- MR. TONER: Well, we’re going to talk to them about our civilian cooperation as well as our counterterrorism cooperation, security cooperation -- QUESTION: So you’re willing to talk with them about the drone strikes? MR. TONER: You know I can’t talk about any intelligence matters. QUESTION: You can’t talk about it with us. Can you talk about it with them? MR. TONER: Well, again, we have very robust counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan. QUESTION: Well, I mean, is this something – they put this on the table. Are you – is this something that’s on the table for the U.S.? MR. TONER: I’ll just say that we’re going to talk about aspects – all aspects of our relationship moving forward. QUESTION: You’re going to talk about all aspects of what they raised? MR. TONER: Including counterterrorism cooperation, but you know -- QUESTION: Does that include – is that your understanding? Does that include drone strikes? MR. TONER: I cannot address that point. QUESTION: But wait – forget about the word – the two words “drone” and “strike.” You are willing – the U.S. is going to talk to them about everything that’s in this review? MR. TONER: I think we’re willing to address their concerns moving forward and find a middle ground. QUESTION: Well, without naming them, are there some issues that you’re not willing to talk about? MR. TONER: Again, let’s let these conversations move forward until – and I’m not going to – we’re not going to take anything off the table or put anything on the table. Peter C. Vey, “It’s Blank Because We Haven’t Found a New War Yet,” New Yorker, April 9, 2012. Asaf Shtull-Trauring, “In an Israeli Lab, the World’s Smallest Drone,” Haaretz, April 9, 2012.   Yan Leung Cheung, P. Raghavendra Rau, Aris Stouraitis, “How Much Do Firms Pay as Bribes and What Benefits Do They Get? Evidence from Corruption Cases Worldwide,” National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2012.