Books & Reports
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The potential chaos highlighted by a 2011 Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Contingency Planning Memorandum, "Post-Qaddafi Instability in Libya," has come to fruition. Libya today is in the midst of…
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Introduction As major powers increasingly rely on digital networks for critical services, the number of plausible network attacks, accidents, or failures that could trigger or exacerbate an intern…
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Territorial disputes in the South China Sea continue to be a source of tension and potential conflict between China and other countries in the region. Though the United States takes no position on so…
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Venezuela is in a state of protracted crisis. Since early 2014, public frustration has been steadily rising over shortages of basic consumer goods and skyrocketing inflation, which spiked above 68 pe…
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Introduction Political instability and potential violence could threaten Zimbabwe in the coming twelve to eighteen months. Zimbabwe's ninety-one-year-old president, Robert Mugabe, has no clear suc…
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Introduction The success or failure of democracy, rule of law, and ethnic and religious reconciliation in Nigeria is a bellwether for the entire continent. With a population of more than 177 milli…
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Introduction Lebanon is at risk of experiencing renewed civil strife in the coming months, primarily as a result of the spillover effects of the Syrian civil war, now in its fourth year. Although …
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Introduction As space systems increasingly perform and support critical operations, a variety of plausible near-term incidents in outer space could precipitate or exacerbate an international crisi…
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Introduction Egypt is experiencing a deep economic crisis. The country's foreign currency reserves are less than half of what they were before the January 2011 uprising, threatening Egypt's abilit…
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In March 2016, the authors wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Jordan. Read the update. Introduction Jordan has so far weathered the political storm that has engulfed…
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Introduction Tensions have risen to dangerous levels between Japan and China over a small group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, called the Senkaku by the Japanese and the Diaoyu by t…
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Introduction Kenya is at risk of repeating the violence that marred its 2007 presidential election, during which 1,133 died and nearly 600,000 were displaced from their homes. Political order in K…
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In March 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Venezuela. Read the update. Introduction In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant po…
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Introduction Iraq remains a fragile state deeply traumatized and riven by thirty years of war, sanctions, occupation, and civil strife. Although there are numerous positive signs of progress in Ir…
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In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update. Introduction The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…
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Overview Al-Qaeda remains committed to striking the United States, but its capacity has been limited by counterterrorism efforts and so might work with or through associated Pakistani outfits to l…
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Overview In June 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Libya. Read the update. Multiple threats to Libya's stability and public order could emerge if t…
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Overview Crisis in the Congo describes the Democratic Republic of the Congo's near-term vulnerability to convulsive electoral violence and renewed rebellion on its periphery. In this Contingency P…
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Overview Further provocations by North Korea as well as other dangerous military interactions on or around the Korean Peninsula remain a serious risk and carry the danger of unintended escalation…
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Overview In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update. Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the fi…
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Overview There is growing concern of renewed war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant Islamist group. Since the last major Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon in the summer of 2006…
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Overview Sudan faces the prospect of renewed violence between north and south over the next twelve to eighteen months. Overwhelmingly in favor of independence, the south will either secede peacefu…
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Terrorism and Counterterrorism
Overview India faces the real prospect of another major terrorist attack by Pakistan-based terrorist organizations in the near future, an event that would jeopardize important U.S. security intere… -
Overview Israel would regard any expansion of nuclear weapons capability within its region as an intolerable threat to its survival. As such, Iran's developing nuclear program has triggered seriou…