Will the Earthquake Affect Politics and War in Myanmar?

The massive earthquake that hit Myanmar last Friday local time has done devastating damage to a country ill-prepared to handle a disaster, as it is in the middle of a civil war, has few functioning institutions, and is a pariah in the outside world, as I noted in a prior post.

The fact that the United States has all but eliminated foreign aid as of Monday, has not gotten any assistance on site, and has promised a mere two million in aid—has not helped. Other countries can assist, but the United States has often taken the lead on major global disasters. According to NBC News, “Rescue teams from India, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand, and other countries have already arrived in Myanmar,” and teams from China. (During a prior major disaster in Myanmar, Cyclone Nargis, in 2008, the United States provided $85 million in aid.)

The suffering now in Myanmar is intense. The government reported that the death toll from the earthquake stands at two thousand, including two hundred Buddhist monks, but that figure is likely wildly understated.

Independent analyses suggest that the final toll will likely exceed ten thousand, as rescue operations are very limited, water and food are scarce, and temperatures near the epicenter can rise over 100°F this time of year. There is little internet and few ways for even rescuers to contact each other, with phone lines often down and mobile phone access sketchy. All this in a country that, even before this disaster, twenty million people needed humanitarian aid because of the conflict.

The government has no real idea how bad the damage is since there is little way to measure it. According to the Associated Press, “an artificial intelligence analysis of satellite images of Mandalay by Microsoft’s AI for Good Lab showed 515 buildings with 80 percent to 100 percent damage and another 1,524 with 20 percent to 80 percent damage,” figures that, if similar in other parts of the epicenter would mean colossal structural damage.

At the same time, some experts in the country and outside are wondering if the earthquake will impact the country’s civil war and politics in general. In some cases, in other countries, natural disasters have been a factor in peace deals. After the 2004 Asian tsunami wiped out much of Aceh province, rebels there reached an agreement with Indonesian government forces.

This disaster-sparks-peace talks idea seems unlikely to happen in Myanmar. The junta did not let the earthquake stop it from relentlessly bombing whole villages—it did so almost immediately after the quake hit. It also used its forces, allegedly, to prevent volunteers from helping innocent people in areas near the epicenter controlled by anti-government forces. The New York Times reported, “By late Monday, some international aid groups began arriving in Sagaing [an area where anti-government forces had intensely battled the military]. But local volunteers seeking help with search and rescue efforts said they were being blocked by the military. ‘We are not allowed to freely enter and provide assistance,’ said U Tin Shwe, a resident of Sagaing who was standing outside a military barricade at a monastery that had toppled, with monks still trapped under the debris.

Perhaps, then, the earthquake might give the military and junta leader Min Aung Hlaing a better position in its grueling civil war, which up to now had featured the junta forces losing many battles, facing defections, and turning to indiscriminate bombing as it lost towns? Perhaps the junta could utilize the earthquake to show that the government is capable and increase its legitimacy compared to the rebels. Min Aung Hlaing appeared on Myanmar state television, which showed him working on getting emergency aid from other countries and giving orders about how to handle disaster management. And perhaps the rebels will be put on their heels, after making significant gains, by the quake, which hit several of their battlefields hard.

That interpretation, however, does not seem likely to me. Instead, the earthquake probably will only make Myanmar into even more of a failed and violent state in 2024: the war monitoring organization ACLED concluded in its annual report that Myanmar was the second most violent and dangerous place on earth last year. The poor quake response—there is no way the junta could have a decent response—will only boost public anger and disgust at the ruling military, already disdained by much of the population. The junta likely will become even more dependent on China, a situation unpopular with most Myanmar citizens. Its proposed election, almost sure to be a sham, will not gain any legitimacy.

Instead, the opposition will be bolstered by people again, seeing the inadequacy of the junta in doing anything but killing people. The opposition forces will suffer from a cutoff of non-lethal aid to them by the Trump administration. However, they have shown themselves resilient throughout the war, and prolonged fighting plays into their hands, as the military will face more defections and is already seeing its conscription efforts flag.