Timor-Leste: Twenty-Five Years After Independence

Amidst the past two weeks of celebrations for Timor-Leste’s 25th anniversary of the referendum that ultimately won them independence—despite fierce and violent opposition from some Indonesian forces and their paramilitary allies—Timorese, Southeast Asian leaders, and observers have been reflecting on the country’s progress. The microstate (population of 1.3 million) has come very far politically, socially, and strategically.

Timor-Leste is undoubtedly a remarkable democratic success story, one of the most striking in the world. After decades of brutal occupation by Indonesia and widespread devastation following its independence referendum, the country faced intense political divisions that led to internal violence in its early years of statehood. Given its extreme poverty and challenging circumstances, Timor-Leste seemed an unlikely candidate to transition to a robust democracy. In fact, despite political instability between 2017-2022, Timor-Leste is, in many respects, the most consolidated democracy in Southeast Asia, surpassing giants like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand.

Timor-Leste’s democratic transition was not guaranteed. When I visited Timor-Leste in the mid-2000s, for instance (I had been there before during the devastated post-1999 referendum era), there were still charred structures in Dili from in-fighting among followers of different politicians and continued unease about a return to violence. While politics remains tough in Timor-Leste, voters have continued to reject explicitly partisan politics and push for democratic norms and institutions, according to analyst Rui Graça Feijó, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Social Studies, University of Coimbra, Portugal. Freedom House, for instance, rates Timor-Leste as “free,” the only country that gets such a rating in Southeast Asia. (I write reports for Freedom House but not about Timor-Leste.)

At the same time, Timor’s politics remain dominated by the generation of leaders who dominated the independence struggle, such as President and Nobel Laureate Jose Ramos Horta, former top guerilla leader and current prime minister Xanana Gusmao and others such as longtime politician Mari Alkatari. In a very young country—about 75 percent of people are under thirty-five, and the birthrate is high—a new generation of leaders must emerge. 

In other areas, Timor-Leste faces enormous hurdles. It has beautiful beaches, wonderful hills and mountains, and many of the same attractions as Indonesian resort islands. However, it does not have the air traffic or capacity to expand its tourism trade. (One travel site last year estimated it gets less than ten tourists per day. On one of the times I visited, I hit several tourist sites, including the stunning Atuaro island off Timor, and found virtually no tourists.)

Timor-Leste has the potential to earn substantial revenue from petroleum reserves in the Greater Sunrise offshore field. Australia appears eager to speed up the exploitation of this field, which the two countries share. For years, Canberra has tried to take advantage by spying on the microstate to gain more of the field. Along with generating more money for infrastructure development and job opportunities for Timorese, harnessing the petroleum reserves would also blunt China’s sizeable influence in the country. Beijing shares a strategic partnership with Dili and provides significant aid, which is critical for a country with high unemployment and a poverty rate of over 40 percent.

Indeed, the Timorese leadership is extremely friendly with China, which has gone on a charm offensive throughout the Pacific islands. As Time magazine noted in a piece on Timor-Leste’s 25^th anniversary, “Ramos-Horta has no such admonishments for America’s superpower rival, telling the U.N. General Assembly in September that Western portrayals of China as a ‘menace’ were ‘unjustified’ and ‘unfair.’ Two days later, Dili and Beijing agreed on a comprehensive strategic partnership, and Ramos-Horta made little effort to assuage Western fears regarding Beijing’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. ‘We have an excellent relationship with China as we have with Australia and the United States,’ he said. ‘We do not feel China is a threat to the world.’”

Navigating regional giant politics with a tiny diplomatic corps and few resources is not easy. Timor-Leste will have to strike a balance between Australia and China while also figuring out what kind of role it should play in Southeast Asia more broadly, as it will be accepted as the 11^th member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the coming years.

Meanwhile, Timor-Leste’s imposing neighbor, Indonesia—which shares the island of Timor—is set to be led by Prabowo Subianto, a former general widely accused of human rights abuses in East Timor during Indonesia’s control of the territory. Although Timorese leaders have worked with Indonesian presidents since independence, working with the bluff, belligerent Prabowo could be a major challenge.