The Philippines Bounces Between China and the United States—and Could Get Burnt by Both

During Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency from 2016 to 2022, the flamboyant and macho Philippine leader became best known for his brutal and bloody “war on drugs.” This campaign effectively served as a license for widespread extrajudicial killings, targeting drug addicts and dealers as well as numerous individuals with no connection to drugs. As The Economist noted, “Documents submitted as part of an investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into whether the killings, and Mr. Duterte’s encouragement of them, constitute a crime against humanity, put the number of civilian casualties much higher, at between 12,000 and 30,000.”

Duterte’s other major policy received less global attention but was central to his administration. From his earliest days in office, he sought to shift Philippine foreign and economic policy away from its longtime ally, the United States, and toward China—despite the Philippine public’s strong personal and cultural ties to America and generally positive views of the United States. Duterte harbored personal grudges against the United States, likely stemming from an incident in 2002 when, as mayor of Davao City, he believed the U.S. illegally extracted Michael Meiring, an American citizen who had detonated an explosive in a Davao hotel. Duterte suspected Meiring was a CIA agent. Beyond personal grievances, Duterte seemed genuinely convinced that aligning with China would usher in a surge of aid and investment to revitalize the Philippines’ decaying infrastructure and deteriorating manufacturing sectors. However, his faith in Beijing yielded little in return, leaving many Filipinos disillusioned with the promised Chinese economic windfall.

Now, Duterte’s successor and political rival, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has reversed course. In a striking departure from Duterte’s policies, Marcos Jr. has realigned Philippine foreign and economic policy toward the United States. Alone among Southeast Asian leaders, he has embraced Washington over balancing between it and Beijing. This pivot has secured hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. defense funding and new defense cooperation agreements that grant the United States additional base access in the Philippines. However, in the event of a second Trump administration, Marcos Jr. could face economic and strategic isolation from the United States, much as Duterte did with China.

For more on how the Philippines could end up losing on both fronts, see our latest World Politics Review article.