The LDP Leadership Race: Ishiba Shigeru Wins

On Friday, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan chose its new leader— Ishiba Shigeru. It was a tough race, with nine candidates in the mix. Early on, two candidates, Koizumi Shinjiro and Ishiba Shigeru, were the clear favorites with party loyalists as well as the public.

By the end of the two-week campaign, a third candidate had emerged —Takaichi Sanae —to challenge them both. Takaichi, in fact, emerged at the top in the first round of voting, with Ishiba in second place. Seven hundred thirty-six votes were up for grabs, half from party members around the country and half from legislators. Takaichi garnered 109 votes from the grassroots and 72 Diet members, for a total of 181 votes. Ishiba, a steady favorite throughout the race with the party’s regional members, had less support from legislators and came in second with 154 votes.

Ishiba has had difficulty in the past attracting the votes of his fellow Diet members, but this time, his fifth attempt at the LDP presidency, he won the day. The outcome of the second round was 215 to 194, revealing differences within the party over the choice.

This election was meant to shake up the LDP and present Japanese voters with a new face and a renewed commitment to transparency and accountability. In fact, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio stepped down so that the LDP could overcome the public distrust that two successive scandals had caused. In his press conference following his win, Ishiba repeated his campaign promise: to protect the rules, to protect Japan, and to protect the Japanese people. 

On October 1, the Diet will convene a vote to elect Ishiba Shigeru as Japan’s next prime minister. He will then form a Cabinet.

Foreign policy and defense played a large role in the LDP campaign, revealing just how focused Japan’s political leaders are on their security. Two issues drew considerable commentary. The first was how Japan should improve its defense readiness. The possibility of a Taiwan Strait crisis was widely discussed in a Fuji Television debate. Ishiba, a former Minister of Defense, was forthright in outlining how Japan needed to study various contingencies and the capabilities it might need to muster in a crisis.

Just before the campaign began, Ishiba had visited Taiwan and met with President Lai Ching-te to discuss the situation across the Straits and Japan-Taiwan ties. Similarly, the debate included reference to Chinese pressures on the Philippines and what, if anything, Japan should do. Here again Ishiba, and others, saw opportunity for alliance cooperation but there was less interest in direct military involvement in a South China Sea crisis.

Ishiba drew headlines during the campaign for his suggestion that Japan ought to consider joining an Asian-NATO style arrangement. He suggested Japan could join ANZUS, but the heart of his comments really focused less on which powers Japan could partner with than the idea that it was time for Tokyo to consider the reciprocity required of a collective security arrangement.

Second, Ishiba had some very specific ideas about revisions needed to the Status of Forces Agreement that governs the U.S. military presence in Japan. Arguing that the time had come to adapt the bilateral agreement, Ishiba suggested this would be a priority for his Cabinet. Moreover, while in Okinawa, Ishiba also argued that the time had come for joint use of the bases there so that the Japanese government could directly manage the interactions between the residents and the military forces on the bases.

A second foreign policy focal point in the campaign was the Japanese response to the death of a ten-year-old Japanese child while his mother walked him to school in Shenzhen on September 18. Chinese officials claimed it was a random incident, but it occurred on the anniversary of the Mukden Incident of 1931 that led to the Second Sino-Japanese War. Japanese business exposure in China remains considerable. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in 2023, over 101,786 Japanese resided in China. In January of this year, members of the Keidanren (Japanese Business Federation) met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, a first since 2019, suggesting an improved atmosphere for commerce. But in the wake of the stabbing, Japanese companies announced measures to help Japanese families leave China. 

Foreign Minister Kamikawa Yōko, herself a candidate for the party presidency, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New York on September 23 at the United Nations General Assembly to discuss the murder and its consequences. She urged Wang Yi to take steps to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens living in China.

A series of military interactions between Japan and China, as well as Russia, raised anxiety in Japan and provided the backdrop to further discussion about how the Self-Defense Force responds to intruders. The list of incidents over the past month is long. Chinese and Russian incursions into Japanese airspace have provoked protests from the Japanese government. A Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer also “inadvertently” ventured into Chinese waters. China launched an ICBM test into the Pacific Ocean without prior notification to the Japanese government.

Ishiba’s thinking on how to manage this intensifying military pressure on Japan by its neighbors matters a great deal. Here, Ishiba was explicit and detailed. He supports what would be a shift in the Rules of Engagement to date for defending Japanese territory. Arguing that the SDF has largely acted as a law enforcement agency, Ishiba said it was time that they were allowed to fire warning shots at any foreign military that intrudes into Japan’s airspace and waters. Here, Ishiba will have others, including Takaichi Sanae and Kobayashi Takayuki, who will want to see the SDF given authority to offer a firm response to foreign military challenges.

On October 1, Ishiba Shigeru will become the next Japanese prime minister and will form his cabinet immediately afterward. At least some of the eight others who campaigned for the presidency are likely to emerge in critical cabinet posts. Defense and foreign policy portfolios will be important, but Ishiba himself is likely to have strong ideas about how he wants to ensure Japan’s security.

Beyond that, Ishiba will need to decide when his party should call the next election. Expectations are high of a snap election within October to take advantage of the momentum generated by the party election. Ishiba’s experience as Secretary General for the party, which won back public trust after the DPJ, will help here, as will his reputation for being untainted by fundraising scandals. Public trust in the party has waned once more, and the LDP will need to persuade voters that it (once again) is ready to change its ways.

However, the LDP will face a different race this time. On September 23, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan elected former Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko as its new leader in a bid to attract more centrist conservatives frustrated with the LDP. The once feared Osaka-based party, Ishin no Kai, has fumbled its lead, losing a by-election in its own stronghold. Finally, the junior partner of the LDP, the Komeito, has also decided the time is right for new leadership. On September 28, Ishii Keiichi, who is running unopposed, is expected to take over from Yamaguchi Natsuo, the architect of the Komeito-LDP coalition, to chart his party’s course forward.

And, of course, there is the potential for political change here in the United States to consider. While this received surprisingly little attention in the LDP campaign, soon-to-be Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will have to consider how he can best work with the next president of the United States.