Just When Things Couldn’t Possibly Get Worse in Myanmar, They Do

Even before the massive earthquake that struck Myanmar and parts of Thailand today, Myanmar was already one of the most troubled and impoverished countries in the world. Following a coup in 2021, the junta has been fighting a bloody war against opposition groups. The junta has lost a lot of ground (though the opposition may be hurt by the U.S. withdrawal of non-lethal aid under the Trump administration) and faced massive defections, low morale, and a declining ability to fight ground battles in rugged terrain.

As a result, the junta has turned to dropping bombs indiscriminately on villages, a war crime. It also has become increasingly dependent on support from North Korea and sometimes Russia, though Russia has its own battles to worry about.

As Human Rights Watch notes in its most recent cataloging of atrocities in Myanmar: “The junta has driven the country further into a human rights and humanitarian catastrophe. At least 55 townships are under martial law. Faced with opposition from the general population and pro-democracy armed groups, the military has struggled to maintain control over the country. The junta’s widespread and systematic abuses against the population—including arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings, and indiscriminate attacks on civilians—amount to crimes against humanity and war crimes … At least 24,000 anti-coup protesters have been arrested since the coup, and 4,000 killed, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. The Peace Research Institute of Oslo estimates actual figures are much higher … [The] military [has] used a thermobaric bomb during an attack on an opposition building in the village of Pa Zi Gyi in Sagaing Region, killing more than 160 people, including many children. This enhanced-blast type munition caused indiscriminate and disproportionate civilian casualties in violation of international humanitarian law and was an apparent war crime.” This was but one of many indiscriminate air attacks by the junta.

Due to the multi-sided civil war and a complete collapse of public services and administration after the coup and the onset of fighting, Myanmar today – already before 2021, one of the poorest states in Asia - is essentially now a failed state, something like Somalia in the 1990s. In many areas, there is no clear answer about who controls which parts of land. There is little to no medical care in many parts of the country, and unemployment has skyrocketed, as has hunger; many Myanmar citizens have fled to Thailand or Bangladesh. Roughly a quarter of the country does not have enough food to sustain itself. Most schools have closed, and children cannot gain an education. Due to the civil war, about half of the country now lives in poverty, an extreme rise from just five or ten years ago. The UN says that eighteen million people in the country require humanitarian aid.

In 2024, Myanmar had the second-highest amounts of war casualties of any country in the world, behind only Ukraine. There is little reason to believe that will change this year since the opposition will not participate in the junta’s planned sham election.

And now the country has been battered by an extremely powerful earthquake, which it is ill-prepared to handle. The quake also impacted Thailand, even bringing down some buildings in Bangkok and killing a handful of people. However, Thailand is a much more prosperous country with vastly better response teams and disaster aid.

In Myanmar, the ultimate death toll is going to be massive—probably in the tens of thousands. The center of the earthquake was near Mandalay, the second-biggest city in the country and a very densely populated area. Most buildings in and near Mandalay, even homes owned by wealthier people, are built of materials that could never stand up to an earthquake, even though the country stands at a fault line and gets many earthquakes. The country has so few hospitals, even near a significant city like Mandalay, that doctors will be able to treat only a handful of patients injured by the earthquake. The rest will be left on their own.

Meanwhile, many important and historic religious structures have been wrecked, and the country’s poor roads, bridges, and other infrastructure have collapsed or vanished. The closure of the internet has made it hard for rescue workers to cooperate.

While the junta has immediately asked for help from the international community and gotten some positive commitments from the UN and a statement by President Trump that the United States will help, it is unclear whether they will get much outside aid. Many states already have sanctions on Myanmar. The UN and major European donors are preoccupied with many other emergencies. Trump has never shown any interest in Myanmar, and his massive foreign aid cuts suggest the country cannot hope for much in assistance from Washington.

Unfortunately, in a place already in misery and collapse, this is an enormous blow that will further destroy what is left of the country.