Japan’s Ruling Coalition Rules No More

On Sunday, Japanese voters handed the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner, Komeito, an unmistakable defeat. Not only is the LDP no longer the majority power, but the coalition no longer rules. Two questions now must be answered. First, can the LDP now build a new coalition government, and if so, what will it look like? Second, what are the implications for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru? 

The numbers tell the story best. The LDP now has 191 seats in the Lower House, down from 247. The Komeito now has twenty-four, compared to thirty-two going into the election. (Stunning for the Komeito is its newly elected leader, Ishii Keiichi, lost his seat.) The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), now has 148 seats, fifty more than it had prior to the election. Not all the LDP seats lost were gained by the CDPJ, but it is clear that most Japanese voters decided to move their support from Japan’s conservative party to its liberal alternative, led by former Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko. 

Public exasperation with the LDP has been obvious for some time. Two scandals have tainted the LDP since the last election in 2021. One was revealed after the assassination of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. The gunman who murdered Abe confessed he had done so because his family had been preyed upon by the Unification Church, a Korean-based religious movement headed originally by Reverend Sun Myung Moon. He was invited into Japan by Abe’s grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, and continued to have a relationship with Abe and others in the LDP generations later. A LDP survey revealed significant ties between some Diet members, including electoral campaign support.  

Adding fuel to the fire of public distrust was the revelation that the Abe faction had amassed a slush fund used to support the elections of its members. This prompted the Kishida Cabinet to propose, and the Diet to adopt, legislation that would provide added transparency to campaign fundraising. Yet, once more, the longstanding ruling party was seen as hiding its electoral funding. The “money and politics” (seiji to kane) scandal, of course, is not new to Japanese politics, but the LDP incurred the wrath of voters for the careless way that it manages its finances. Forty-six LDP members were involved in the slush fund scandal, and twenty-eight ultimately lost their seats. 

The LDP will now have to reach out to other parties to build a new coalition to govern Japan. The LDP and the Komeito coalition now only has 215 seats, less than a simple majority of 233 of the total 465 seats in the lower house. Another important goal looking forward is the stable majority of 261 seats needed to control the legislative agenda in the lower house. This larger number would allow control over committee chairmanships as well as over the agenda-setting for upcoming legislation. 

So, the LDP will need a new coalition if it wants to form a government. Two parties might offer the best options. The first is Ishin no Kai (or the Japan Innovation Party), a party with support concentrated in the Kansai region of Japan. Ishin is seen as reformist in orientation, hoping for greater regional autonomy in a country largely run from Tokyo, but it is also hawkish on defense and foreign policy issues. Thus, perhaps it offers the LDP a welcome policy partner on national strategy. Yet, it would be in tension with the defense views of the Komeito, long seen as a brake (hadome) on the more hawkish members of the LDP. In yesterday’s election, the Ishin won thirty-eight seats. If added to the LDP and Komeito coalition, it would bring a simple majority with a total of 252 seats, but it is short of the stable majority that would aid a legislative foundation for a new coalition government. 

Another party that has been the focus of media conjecture as a possible coalition partner is the Democratic Party for the People (DPP). The DPP has very similar inclinations when it comes to the management of the national economy. With twenty-eight seats gained yesterday, this would boost the LDP-Komeito coalition to 242, again a simple majority but short of a stable one. If there is a way for the LDP to include the Komeito, Ishin no Kai, and the DPP in a governing coalition, that would add up to 280 seats—a stable majority and sixty percent of the total lower house seats. There are also twelve unaffiliated Diet members potentially up for grabs now should the LDP be able to attract them to the coalition. 

But what are the costs of this type of coalition formation? It is too early to tell what the negotiations might look like, but already Sankei Shimbun reports that talks have begun between the LDP, Ishin, and the DPP. Of course, it is also possible that the CDPJ has coalition plans of its own. With 148 seats, it is in a strong position to organize a coalition of opposition to the LDP and whatever coalition it builds to govern Japan. At the very least, we should expect CDPJ President Noda to try to persuade the DPP to stay on its side of the political fence rather than cooperate with the LDP. Ishin would have less in common with the more liberal CDPJ, but Noda may be able to entice cooperation if he satisfies the regional interests of Ishin. Preventing other parties from cooperating with the LDP may be the CDPJ’s best strategy. Finally, there is a possibility that the LDP and the CDPJ find common ground. This would be a far less attractive option for Ishiba’s party, but under Noda’s leadership, conceivable as a stable governing coalition for Japan. 

A more pressing point in the days ahead is the second question: Will Ishiba Shigeru be able to hold on to his long-awaited opportunity to lead his party and Japan? Coming out of a divisive LDP party presidency election last month, Ishiba faced considerable challenges even before the election. The internal party vote was tight, with Ishiba winning his LDP colleague’s support by only twenty-one votes. The narrow victory led to the refusal of his rival, Takaichi Sanae, to support of his leadership. Will she and her supporters, including the rising contender for leadership, Kobayashi Takayuki, now attribute the LDP’s momentous loss to the choice of Ishiba as party president? Will she and others call for him to step down to take responsibility for the largest LDP electoral loss since it was booted out of office by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 2009? 

More time is needed before we know the answers to either question. Tomorrow, LDP will meet to determine the next steps. And in the coming days, more information will undoubtedly come to the fore on what other parties might want in exchange for participation in an LDP-led coalition government. Expect hard bargaining within the LDP, and between the LDP and among the smaller parties that would like to have greater influence over Japan’s future. 

What comes next depends on the conservative party’s ability to reframe its aims. Whether that is possible depends on the ability of Japan’s conservatives to agree with each other.