Botswana’s Pivotal Elections

As the people of Botswana prepare for election day on October 30, they have real causes for concern. Unemployment is soaring. Polls show that citizens’ satisfaction with democracy has declined by 40 percent over the last decade, while concerns about corruption have increased dramatically, to the point that just under 80 percent of Batswana believe that at least some officials in the office of the President are corrupt. The country’s extraordinary story of success,  going from extremely low levels of development at independence in 1966 to a peaceful, democratic, upper middle-income country in which the rule of law prevailed and social trust could thrive, has taken a dark turn. 

Not all of the country’s problems are self-inflicted. The downturn in the diamond industry is a function of global economic forces and changing generational tastes. Droughts are growing worse due to climate change. But the country’s leadership has not made enough progress on combatting inequality and diversifying the economy, losing opportunities to ponderous processes, pivoting from one plan to another repeatedly, investing in industries that make little sense for Botswana’s climate, and failing to upgrade critical infrastructure efficiently. Worse, increasing concerns about corruption and judicial interference risk tarnishing the most compelling selling points Botswana had to offer to international investors—a reputation for transparency, sound fiscal policy, and adherence to the law. 

As is true throughout the continent, a desire for change is in the air. The ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has dominated the government for nearly sixty years. But a divided opposition and structural advantages to incumbency make another BDP victory that returns President Masisi to office for another term the most likely outcome. If people do not have faith that elections work to hold leaders accountable and deliver meaningful choices about future leadership, the country’s cynicism about democracy will only grow. The years-long feud between President Masisi and his predecessor, Ian Khama, reinforced the notion that politics are about personalities, rivalries, and petty grievances rather than the direction of the country. The dissolution of the opposition coalition did the same. Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations in 2018, a year before Botswana’s last general election, Masisi said, “Botswana is much more important than anybody’s ego,” while he expressed full commitment to democratic transfers of power, and pledged to accept any credible electoral outcome. Yet big egos continue to dominate political space, running the real risk of squandering one of the world’s most prominent examples of how good governance can thwart the resource curse and deliver for citizens.