Australia’s Upcoming Elections and the Trump Factor

On May 3, Australia will hold parliamentary elections. Since it is a parliamentary democracy, the party that wins the most seats also takes over the position of prime minister, putting them in significant control of all federal governing.

Australians are not exactly happy with the Labor government of Anthony Albanese, who is seeking re-election. He came to power in 2022 as a kind of new voice, a man from the working class who was buoyant and seemed ready to invigorate Australian spirits. Yet high housing prices continue, even though Albanese promised to lower living costs.

And Australia is growing at its slowest pace in decades. As the BBC notes, “Inflation, though slowing, has pushed up the prices of everyday essentials and left many households struggling with the cost of living. The government’s relief measures—which include tax cuts, energy rebates, and rental assistance—have had little impact on the worries of many Australians, who say this is still the top issue for them this election.” He also has struggled to find a clear voice on the Israel-Gaza war and held a referendum on greater Indigenous rights but muddled the referendum campaign, which failed.

Yet Albanese and Labor remain the favorites, even though most voters think Australia is on the wrong track. Most recent polls show Labor ahead, with just weeks until the election. In one poll, the respected Morgan poll, The Conversation cited: “A national Morgan poll, conducted March 24–30 from a sample of 1,377, gave Labor a 53–47 lead by headline respondent preferences, unchanged from the March 17–23 poll.”

Albanese’s opponent, Peter Dutton, from the conservative Liberal-National coalition (yes, it is confusing that the conservatives are called Liberals), has an even more negative public image than the prime minister, that of an unfeeling politician and one out of touch with many key Australian issues. As Home Minister, he cracked down hard on protests in ways that many Australians disliked. Before, when he was Health Minister, Dutton’s policies were widely hated. He also continues to deny and underplay climate change in a country vulnerable to it. On the campaign trail, his party and its small coalition partner have sometimes suggested that they will downsize the Australian federal government, which is not as popular as it might be in the United States. He is also a poor debater, and Albanese creamed Dutton in the first debate.

In addition, Australia’s conservatives no doubt see that the policies of President Donald Trump have resonated globally by helping more liberal parties position themselves as the best placed to stand up to the U.S. president. In Canada, for instance, Trump’s actions have allowed the taken-for-dead Liberal Party to overcome a massive poll deficit. They are now the favorite for national elections, leading in polls by about six points, even though they trailed the Conservatives by over twenty points just eight weeks ago.

Trump appears to have some of the same effect in Australia, leading people toward Labor. Albanese has been forceful about fighting Trump’s tariffs and defending Australia’s pharmaceutical industry, which Trump is targeting. Once a publicly easygoing politician, he has resonated a much tougher image these days. Albanese told reporters, “The two conversations I’ve had with President Trump are ones in which I stand up for Australia’s national interest, and I will always do that.” Albanese has also made clear that, in an unstable world in which the United States might not be an ally for Australia, his government has worked hard to expand Australia’s major security partners and to focus on Asia in general, given U.S. instability.

Meanwhile, in recent days, members of the Trump administration have, in high-profile ways, mocked Australia and suggested that they are trying to put tariffs on Australia, even though the United States has a trade surplus, to get more money from Down Under for the U.S. budget.

A recent exchange between Trump’s Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the moderate Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Warner further illuminated the White House’s position, angered many Australians, and gave Albanese room to present himself as a defender against Trump policies—something more challenging for the conservative Dutton to do. “Ambassador, excuse me,” Warner said in a meeting of the Senate Finance Committee where Greer appeared. “There is a trade surplus [with Australia]. We already have a free trade agreement … so getting the least bad—why did they [Australia] get whacked in the first place?”

Greer responded, “We’re addressing the $1.2 trillion deficit, the largest in human history, that President Biden left us with. We should be running up the score on Australia,” a comment that went over horribly in Australia and which allowed Albanese, more than Dutton, to rally Australians in response.

Other signs show how the Trump effect favors Albanese. When Trump announced his tariffs several days ago (They have since been watered down, except on China, but who knows if Trump will renew them again), they sparked a further rise in polling for Albanese and Labor.  

As one Australian political analyst noted in a column titled, “Albanese reads public mood on Trump,” “It’s hard to remember an Australian government being so publicly critical of an American president. The gloves haven’t completely come off, but on the eve of an election, the decision to stop playing nice and start talking frankly gives an insight into how Labor [better] reads the domestic public mood towards Trump.” Barring some dramatic change, Albanese and Labor likely will ride the Trump effect and Dutton’s mishaps to re-election.

This publication is part of the Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy.