Taiwan

Lauren Dickey is a research associate for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Taiwan’s ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party experienced an unprecedented electoral defeat last Saturday, the “biggest defeat since 1949,” according to local media. Nearly 20,000 candidates ran for 11,130 political offices in Taiwan, with 18.5 million eligible voters casting ballots for nine levels of government across the island. Beyond the sheer scope of holding nine different elections on one single day, the electoral outcome sends a resounding signal to Beijing. After the spring Sunflower Movement protesting the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement with mainland China, and the ongoing Umbrella Revolution in Hong Kong, these elections offered an opportunity for many voters to voice discontent with the pro-China, pro-business policies of the ruling KMT party. Public discontent with the KMT and President Ma Ying-jeou has provided an opportunity for the opposition Democratic Progress Party (DPP) to fortify its constituent base, a significant political development as Taiwan’s presidential elections approach in 2016. With public approval ratings of President Ma hovering around 15 percent, DPP campaign efforts focused on “winning back Taiwan” beginning with local elections. Based on the voting outcomes, the DPP is off to a strong start. After the weekend local elections, areas with long histories of voting for the KMT have now witnessed a shift to the DPP, with the KMT retaining only six of the twenty-two city, county, and municipal governments in Taiwan. Arguably the most important position, the Taipei mayoral seat, shifted into the hands of an independent, Ko Wen-je. Mr. Ko, who has promised to be a mayor of all Taiwanese citizens, won the support of the pan-green camp—the DPP, Taiwan Solidarity Union, and People First Party—earlier in his campaign with what some perceive to be an openly pro-independence policy platform. As the KMT surveys the aftermath of the elections, a few heads of high-ranking officials are likely to roll. Taiwan’s Premier Jiang Yi-huah resigned within hours of the KMT’s devastating losses at the polls; President Ma bowed out from chairmanship of the KMT a few days later amid mounting public pressure, expressing a willingness “to shoulder most of the responsibility.” With the premier’s resignation, the cabinet also steps down, as the island awaits announcement of a new premier, new ministerial appointments, and a new KMT chairperson to get the incumbent party back on its feet again. While these newly elected officials will not assume national offices—and the composition of the national government will not change—implications for Taiwanese domestic politics and cross-strait relations linger simply because of the scale of the DPP’s win in the local elections. The defeat suffered by the KMT reflects voter dissatisfaction over not only the government’s handling of food safety scandals, low wages, and the widening wealth gap, but also pro-China policy. Because Beijing is used to progress in rapprochement under KMT leadership at the national level, DPP victories at the local level are certainly disheartening to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Beijing must now make a choice: move forward with military posturing or economic pressure to coerce Taiwan further into its sphere of influence; continue economic engagement with the ruling KMT government as a stepping stone toward reunification; attempt to work with the DPP at the local level; or, support a continuation of the status quo. Beijing wants to avoid any actions or policies that would drive Taiwan toward a formal declaration of independence. From the perspective of the Chinese leadership, a Taiwan that is less welcoming of Beijing’s economic and trade overtures or actively voicing interest in international involvement is one that is vying for an identity separate from mainland China. For Beijing to keep the “renegade province” within its sphere of influence, Chinese leaders will need to step up subtler forms of engagement with the Taiwanese people: incentives targeting businessmen, academics, students, and local leaders may prove far more effective than military posturing or economic coercion. As Beijing adapts to a newly pan-green DPP domestic political environment on Taiwan, Xi and his colleagues will remain diligent in pursuit of overarching political and national goals vis-à-vis Taiwan. The impact of Taiwan’s local elections, and its utility as a barometer for both the two remaining Ma Ying-jeou years, as well as the 2016 presidential elections, should not be understated. While Xi Jinping may well be occupied with an already full foreign policy agenda and a plethora of domestic challenges, Beijing cannot afford to ignore the political changes on Taiwan. Every Taiwan president since 1996 has been a former mayor of Taipei; and mainland China will surely be watching DPP leadership in other previously KMT bastions elsewhere on the island. Beijing would benefit from learning to work with the DPP, since now more than ever before, a DPP presidency in 2016 is increasingly probable.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Andrew Hill, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. India becomes the first Asian nation to reach Mars. India’s space program celebrated a huge victory this week, successfully launching an orbiter to Mars on its first attempt. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) managed to send the Mars Orbitor Mission, affectionately nicknamed MOM, on a budget of  $74 million; many have been quick to point out that it cost less than the production of the Hollywood hit movie, Gravity. Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for a celebration of the mission’s success, and schools in India organized programs to commemorate the entry of MOM into Mars’s orbit. The first images of the red planet were uploaded to Twitter, sparking a Twitter conversation between Modi and ISRO’s orbiter. 2. Chinese vice premier vows greater efforts to combat climate change. Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli said China will commit to a more carbon-efficient economy by 2020 at the UN Climate Summit, the largest high-level climate meeting since 2009. "As a responsible major country, a major developing country, China will make even greater effort to address climate change," Zhang said. His remarks followed those of U.S. President Barack Obama, who called out China’s hesitance to a global climate treaty. As a nation that produces nearly one-third of the world’s carbon emissions, China is generally seen as a necessary component in leading efforts to combat climate change. 3. Taiwan investigates Chinese smartphone company over cybersecurity concerns. Recent reports have alleged that Xiaomi, the leading domestic smartphone maker in China, was sending Taiwanese user information to the mainland. According to the Taiwanese National Communications Commission, the government has begun independent tests on the phones. The concerns highlight not only cross-strait politics, but also international accusations that China’s government and companies are a threat. Earlier this year, a Finnish security company released evidence that Xiaomi, a privately owned company, had collected address book data without permission. Xiaomi apologized for that incident in August. 4. Abe vows to make Japan “hydrogen-based society.” Speaking at CFR’s New York headquarters on Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe expressed his desire for Japan “to be the front-runner in the energy revolution,” specifically through the development and popularization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). The Abe administration first announced in June that it would encourage the development of hydrogen fuel cell technology and in July announced that it would subsidize purchases of hydrogen-powered cars by at least two million yen. Japanese auto-makers have been developing hydrogen fuel-cell technology, including a one-hundred-station “hydrogen highway,” for several years, with plans for the first HFCVs to enter the market in early 2015. Japan’s focus on hydrogen fuel-cell technology represents one part of the Abe administration’s broader push for reforms in the energy sector, which has struggled in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. 5. China sentences Uighur scholar to life in prison. The Urumqi People’s Intermediate Court found Ilham Tohti, a former economics professor at Minzu University in Beijing, guilty of separatism after a two-day trial. He was also stripped of his political rights for life and had all of his personal property confiscated. Mr. Tohti is known outside China as a moderate voice against China’s harsh policies in the western-most province of Xinjiang, and his sentence was seen as unusually harsh, earning Beijing the condemnation of the United States, European Union, and United Nations. The ruling comes amid a broader crackdown by the Chinese government in Xinjiang, as protests and violence in the region have increased over the past year; fifty people were reportedly killed last weekend after a series of bomb blasts and riots in Luntai County, southwest of Urumqi. BONUS: Chinese vendor caught lacing noodles with opium. Noodle connoisseurs in China’s Shaanxi province may be eyeing their food more closely after a vendor admitted to adding powdered poppy plant – from which opium is made – to his dishes. The vendor’s secret, addictive ingredient came to light when a customer tested positive for opium following a routine traffic stop. The noodle shop owner, Mr. Zhang, admitted to buying two kilograms of poppy buds for $100 and was released after a fifteen-day detainment.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Andrew Hill, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Thai junta leader Prayuth Chan-ocha appointed prime minister. In a 191-0 vote on Thursday, Thailand’s rubber-stamp legislature named as prime minister the general who in May led the military coup of Thailand’s elected government. General Prayuth awaits an expected endorsement from King Bhumibol Adulyadej. Some have described Thailand’s new system as one of “soft dictatorship,” where the military guides the democracy. The increase of military power in Thailand is one example of recent regression from the previously growing democracies in Southeast Asia. 2. Indonesian court affirms Joko Widodo’s victory. After a month of uncertainty, Indonesia’s constitutional court rejected a legal challenge to president-elect Joko Widodo’s victory, clearing the final hurdle for him to take office in October. Claims by Prabowo Subianto, who lost the presidential election in July, that the election was marred by “massive, structured and systematic fraud” were discarded due to a lack of evidence. The court did acknowledge claims of voting irregularities in remote provinces, but firmly upheld that a revote would still not overturn the election results. As police clashed with protesters in the hours leading up to the court’s decision, concerns that the transfer of power will be anything but calm linger. 3. Sri Lanka refuses to cooperate with the United Nations war crimes investigation. Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa announced that United Nations investigators will be denied entry into Sri Lanka to probe alleged war crimes committed during the last stages of the civil war by Sri Lankan authorities and the Tamil rebel group, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. As many as forty-thousand Tamil civilians are believed to have been killed in the final stage of the twenty-six-year civil war, many in no-fire zones agreed upon with the UN. The UN investigative team still plans to move forward, relying on Skype interviews and satellite imagery to carry out the investigation. The team is expected to present its findings to the UN Human Rights Council in March 2015. 4. China levies record fine on Japanese auto parts maker under anti-monopoly law. China’s anti-monopoly regulator, the National Reform and Development Commission (NRDC), fined twelve Japanese companies 1.24 billion yuan (US$202 million), the largest fine ever levied under the 2008 anti-trust law. The NRDC’s investigation revealed that the companies had colluded to reduce competition and establish favorable pricing. Earlier in the week, German carmaker Mercedes-Benz was found guilty of manipulating the price of spare parts; the likely penalty was not publicized. China’s regulators have been increasing pressure on foreign multinationals in the past couple years, most likely to reduce competition for domestic companies. 5. Landslides in Japan kill thirty-nine. At least thirty-nine people, including two children and one first responder, have been confirmed dead after severe rains triggered over thirty landslides in Hiroshima early Wednesday morning. Fifty-one were still missing as of Thursday, as evacuation orders went out to 106,000 residents in twenty-five locations in Hiroshima. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has sent over 600 self-defense force personnel to the area, which experienced a record 8.5 inches of rainfall in just three hours. A similar disaster in June 1999 killed twenty people in the same area and prompted legislation to require prefectural governments take more precautions against potential landslides. Bonus: Taiwanese restaurant under fire for naming “Nazi” pasta dish. Taiwan, home to airplane and toilet-themed restaurants, encountered a scandal after a Taipei restaurant named a dish “Long Live the Nazis.” The dish was meant to evoke German themes because it contains sausage as the primary ingredient, said the manager, and “it never occurred to us that the word Nazi would stir up such controversy.” Both the Israeli and German representatives to Taiwan expressed regret at the choice. The restaurant has apologized and changed the dish’s name to the (still head-scratching) “Long Live Purity.”

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Andrew Hill, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Meat scandal erupts in China. Shanghai Husi Food Co., a Chinese food supplier owned by the Illinois-based global food processor OSI Group Inc., has been shown to have repackaged old meat and changed expiration dates before shipping it to retailers. Some of the world’s best-known chain restaurants, including McDonald’s, KFC, Pizza Hut, and Starbucks, were sold the rotten meat and have been forced to alter their supply chains or cancel the sale of some products entirely. The Shanghai police have detained five employees of Shanghai Husi, and the head of the OSI Group has accepted “responsibility for these missteps.” 2. Jokowi declared winner of Indonesian election, but rival rejects results. In the weeks after the July 9 Indonesian presidential election, conflicting “quick counts” led to dueling declarations of victory by candidates Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, and his opponent Prabowo Subianto. Although most quick counts projected Jokowi as the winner, Prabowo remained insistent that he was leading, citing four pollsters favorable to him. After the tabulation of around 136 million votes by the General Elections Commission, on Tuesday night, Jokowi was officially announced as the winner of the election, taking 53 percent of the vote. Prabowo, claiming the election was illegitimate, will appeal the results to the Constitutional Court, but it is doubtful that the court will rule in his favor as the election is generally regarded as free and fair. 3. Taiwanese plane crashes during emergency landing. More than forty people were killed when a TransAsia Airways passenger plane tried to land in the Taiwanese Penghu Islands amid rain and lightning. Twelve injured passengers were rushed to the emergency room but the rest are feared to be dead. The cause of the crash is still under investigation, but inclement weather and technical failures are likely contributing factors. The Taiwan-based airline has been involved in a number of incidents since 2002, when a cargo plane crashed into the sea. This incident is one of three aviation tragedies that have shocked the world in the last week. 4. Japan to join U.S.-India military exercises. Naval vessels from the United States, India, and Japan began the annual Malabar Exercise in the northern Pacific on Thursday. This marks the third time that New Delhi has invited Tokyo to participate in what is normally an annual bilateral exercise between India and the United States. The exercises have brought the ire of China, whose own naval presence has become increasingly assertive in the region, but all Malabar participants maintain that the exercises are not aimed at containing or countering Beijing. Both India and Japan are also currently participating in the U.S.-hosted Rim of the Pacific, or RIMPAC, naval exercise off the coast of Hawaii, where, for the first time, China is also participating. 5. Thai junta adopts interim constitution. Thailand’s junta won approval from King Bhumibol Adulyadej for a provisional constitution that will pave the way for a new legislature and interim government. Under the constitution, the junta has the authority to handpick 220 legislative members, who will then appoint a prime minster and thirty-five cabinet members. In addition to exonerating the junta for its actions since the May 22 coup, the constitution calls for the formation of a reform committee tasked with approving a permanent constitution before elections can be held. While the document is a first step toward restoring electoral democracy in Thailand, the junta will continue to hold substantial power even after the cabinet and legislature take office in September. Bonus: Inflatable animals in China gone wild. A giant inflatable toad unveiled in Beijing has been purged from the Chinese internet after Chinese bloggers photoshopped eyeglasses on the toad, comparing the creature to former Chinese president Jiang Zemin. Elsewhere in China, a hunt has begun for the toad’s counterpart—Dutch artist Florentijin Hofman’s giant rubber duck—after floodwaters sent the duck floating away on the Nanming river in Guizhou.

Over the past two months, as China’s maritime disputes with Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam have escalated, most foreign observers and American officials, though worried, have shown little concern that the conflicts would explode into a full-scale war. After all, for more than three decades China has profited enormously from being part of the global economic system. Its military, though growing, remains far less technologically advanced than American armed forces. And for thirty years, predictions that China one day would try to dominate its region by force have always been proven wrong. Repeated warnings, with nothing coming of them, created a boy-who-cried-wolf scenario in Washington. In the early 1990s many human rights activists, including some Democratic politicians, worried that China, ostracized after the Tiananmen crackdown, would lash out. China indeed fired missiles near Taiwan in 1995, but after the Clinton administration sent aircraft carriers into the Taiwan Strait, Beijing backed down. Instead it launched a charm offensive aimed at its neighbors, boosting aid, investment, and cultural diplomacy across the region. Western foreign policy leaders and China experts have come to assume that China has too much invested in the world today to smash it up. Beijing has “embraced global institutions and their rules and norms. … [That] has helped guide its spectacular economic growth and integration into the world economy,” notes China specialist Wendy Dobson of the University of Toronto, in a typical commentary about Beijing’s role in the world. But this time the wolf might actually be here. China’s highly nationalistic new leadership may no longer simply accede to the existing international economic and security order; instead it appears to want to change that order, even if that means harming some of China’s most important trade ties. Beijing has started to show its tough-guy stance by, among other things, claiming ownership of islands lying between it and Japan and by enforcing its massive—and utterly ridiculous—claims to almost the entire South China Sea. But unlike ten years ago, many of Beijing’s angry neighbors are no longer weaklings. To read more of my new piece on China’s dispute with Vietnam and other South China Sea claimants, go to: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-29/is-china-ready-to-use-military-might-in-southeast-asia

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Indian election underway. With over 814 million eligible voters, India’s election is the largest democratic undertaking in history and will take place over a period of five weeks in nine phases—three of which were completed this week. On Thursday, constituencies were at stake in eleven of India’s states and three federally administered territories. India’s Election Commission reported impressive voter turnout in most regions, including over 60 percent turnout in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state. The ruling Congress Party is almost certain to lose due to widespread voter disenchantment over its stewardship of the economy, corruption, and governance during the party’s tenure in power. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—India’s main opposition party—is expected to win more than 200 of the 543 seats of Parliament, but the question remains as to which parties Narendra Modi, the BJP’s leader and frontrunner to become India’s next prime minister, will appeal to in order to form a coalition government. Final election results will be announced on May 16. 2. Indonesian opposition party leads in parliamentary elections. Indonesia held parliamentary and local elections on April 9, which was declared a public holiday to allow more than 190 million people to vote. Indonesia is the world’s third-largest democracy, and during these elections over 235,000 candidates vied for almost 20,000 posts. The opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) was to win big—some analysts had predicted PDI-P taking 30 percent of the overall vote—but early results show them taking only 19 percent. Though still a rise from 14 percent in the last elections in 2009, the PDI-P needed at least 25 percent of the vote—or 20 percent of parliamentary seats—to nominate its own presidential candidate; now it will likely have to enter into a coalition with one or more parties. Some observers see this as a blow to the “Jokowi effect,” which describes the enthusiasm behind the popular Jakarta governor and PDI-P presidential candidate Joko Widodo. Also noteworthy was the relative strength of Islamic parties, which had been thought to be in decline. 3. Secretary Hagel wraps up trip to Asia. U.S. secretary of defense Chuck Hagel completed a ten-day trip to Asia this week that included visits to Japan, China, and Mongolia. During the trip, Hagel: met with defense ministers at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Defense Forum in Honolulu, Hawaii; announced that the United States will send two more Aegis-equipped ships to Japan; was the first foreign official to tour China’s aircraft carrier, the Liaoning; and was gifted a horse in Mongolia, where he sought to deepen U.S.-Mongolia military relations. Predictably, Hagel’s stay in China was contentious at times, with Chinese officials boasting of China’s military prowess and expressing their displeasure at perceived U.S. support for Japan and the Philippines in the East and South China Seas. 4. Japan, United States stall on trade pact. U.S. trade representative Michael Froman and Japanese minister of economy, trade, and industry Akira Amari met in Tokyo this week, but failed to resolve bilateral trade issues regarded as critical to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks. Amari and Froman told reporters that they had made some progress but that considerable differences remain over trade barriers, including tariffs on Japanese automobiles and U.S. pork, beef, and rice. Government officials on both sides had originally hoped an agreement could be reached in time for U.S. president Barack Obama’s state visit to Japan on April 24-25. Despite the difficulties, both Froman and Amari stressed the importance of continuing negotiations, saying the TPP will offer tremendous opportunities for both countries, the region, and the global economy. 5. Taiwanese students end occupation of Taiwan’s parliament. Taiwanese students protesting a proposed services trade pact with mainland China ended their three-week occupation of the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s parliament. They agreed to leave only after legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng promised to halt debate on the trade deal until new oversight rules are passed. Despite the peaceful ending, student protestors have vowed to continue their efforts. The “Sunflower Movement,” as the protests have become known, has exposed Taiwan’s division over increasing economic integration with mainland China. The view from Beijing remains positive, however, as officials believe the protests will not affect cross-strait relations. Bonus: French mountain air for sale in China. Chinese artist Liang Kegang auctioned a glass jar of clean air from France’s Provence region before a group of about one hundred Chinese artists and collectors. Selling for 5,250 yuan ($860), Liang’s jar is part of a recent trend in artistic protests reflecting widespread dissatisfaction over China’s air quality. In February, twenty Beijing artists wore dust masks and played dead outside the Temple of Heaven; in March, artists in Changsha held a mock funeral for the last citizen to die from smog.

Wenchi Yu is a former U.S. Department of State official and an Asia Society and Project 2049 Institute fellow. Previously, she was a legislative assistant in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, and she grew up in Taiwan. Follow her on Twitter: @WenchiY. Taiwan is in the news again, this time because of a standoff between Taiwan’s government and protesters over a trade pact with China. For those who are concerned about Taiwan’s future, this is an opportunity to examine why Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou’s government has failed to lead. It is not his policies, not the opposition, not the so-called "riot students" who occupy the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s parliament, to protest against the government’s non-transparent Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement with China. It is Ma’s communications problem. President Ma was elected as Taiwan’s president in 2008 and again in 2012, representing the Kuomingtang party (KMT). Before becoming president, he maintained a clean public image as a scandal-free, well-educated, and rational leader. As a second-generation mainland Chinese in Taiwan, he has intentionally kept his distance from the KMT establishment, gaining the support of those who want Taiwan to move beyond the ethnic mainland Chinese and Taiwanese divide. But Ma has let down the Taiwanese people because he does not know how to communicate effectively: not to his own KMT party members, not to the KMT majority leader of the Legislative Yuan, not to the opposition, not to the media, and not to the people. The result? There is little support for any of Ma’s major policies. And the lower Ma’s public approval ratings, the less he communicates. This is a serious problem for Ma and his close advisors. As any good politician knows, strategic communication is one of the most important skills to have. Big ideas and major policies need to be explained to the people, to parliament, and to the media to convince them why supporting you and your policies is important to the country and its citizens. In the case of the most recent public outcry over the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement with China, Ma did not have an effective communications strategy and failed to bring key stakeholders on board. His government ignored the demand of 70 percent of the public for better scrutiny of the proposed trade agreement, and neglected the standard procedures in the Legislative Yuan, simply wanting to fast track passage of the agreement. Ma’s team failed to explain why this trade agreement is so important for the country’s economy. Whether one believes signing this agreement is Taiwan’s only means of survival -- as it has been touted by Ma’s team -- the general public does not necessarily oppose significant trade flows between Taiwan and China. In fact, many believe Taiwan’s economic future depends on trade, including through the regional Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and bilateral free trade agreements. While trade with China is a different matter as it concerns Taiwan’s economic security, Ma’s inability to consult and communicate is turning Taiwanese citizens against him. This is worrisome to those who hope to see Taiwan adopt a more open relationship with China, be it political or economic. Given the protests, it is unlikely that the trade agreement would be passed by the Legislative Yuan without serious compromise on Ma’s side. But this incident is causing societal upheaval while further delaying constructive and meaningful trade policies that the country so desperately needs. It is time for President Ma to deploy a better communications strategy. The press conference on March 23 did not give people the impression that he wanted to "communicate." He appeared defensive of his policy -- legitimately so -- but the root cause of the protest is that Ma has not communicated why he thinks this policy is so important and how he is going to mitigate the risks of the trade agreement with China. Governing in a democracy is about effective communication of ideas and policies. It is not too late for crisis management; below is some advice for President Ma’s communications team to get through this current crisis: First, Ma needs to acknowledge that he has not effectively communicated the positives of the trade agreement with China. Second, he must reach out to KMT party legislators, to opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) legislators, and most importantly, to the majority leader Wang Jin-ping. Though the two leaders rarely agree, Ma needs Wang’s support. Third, the president should dispatch his top national security advisors to the diplomatic community in Taipei. Most of these diplomats are most likely in support of a better trade agreement between Taiwan and China. Fourth, Ma needs to talk to the media and the people. Simply holding a press conference is insufficient. One-way communication will not satisfy the Taiwanese people because it does not show that President Ma is listening to people’s concerns. He must explain the pros and cons of the proposed agreement in an open and honest manner. If he truly believes this agreement is essential to Taiwan’s future, he should be confident in its merits and explain it well. President Ma needs to start to communicate. His refusal to engage with the rest of the society is not only hurting his presidency, but it is also affecting Taiwan’s future. The views expressed are those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect the policies, positions, or views of the U.S. government, the U.S. Department of State, Asia Society, or the Project 2049 Institute.

Lauren Dickey is a research associate for U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Taiwan’s ruling Kuomintang party (KMT) has caused quite the kerfuffle. On Monday, March 17, the KMT retreated from an agreement with the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to push through a service trade pact with mainland China. The two parties had previously agreed to conduct an itemized review of the trade pact, an agreement the KMT has now chosen not to uphold over claims that the DPP is actively blocking “official business” between the island and Beijing. The KMT’s move may come back to affect domestic politics and haunt cross-strait relations. If approved, the trade pact will supplement the 2010 Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement by further dropping barriers on service trade, allowing China to invest in sixty-four of Taiwan’s service sectors and send workers to Taiwan on renewable visas. Opposition parties and civic groups—including the DPP and Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU)—argue that the trade agreement would not only allow China to influence Taiwan’s governing system, but that the economic stipulations would benefit big corporations to the detriment of local Taiwanese enterprises. The KMT’s move to circumvent interparty consensus could be a costly one; such actions not only undermine Taiwan’s democracy but also demonstrate a fundamental, and continued, Taiwanese resistance to ending up in Beijing’s fold. During a March 18 evening rally outside the government offices, popular discontent with this democratic leapfrogging translated into action as several hundred protestors stormed into and barricaded themselves inside of the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s parliament. While corruption and political protests are common in Taiwan, a takeover of parliament is unprecedented. Countless YouTube videos and live streams show the students blocking entrances with chairs and raising banners reading “refuse to allow the trade pact to clear the legislative floor.” Police have so far been unable to remove the protestors. The ongoing student occupation is expected to continue until March 21, when a floor meeting is scheduled. So what does this mean for Taiwan’s democracy? First, many Taiwanese are clearly willing to hold their government accountable. On Monday, when the KMT cut short the bipartisan review of the trade agreement, democratic processes were skirted, if not altogether ignored. Student protesters in the Legislative Yuan are exercising their democratic right by demanding a comprehensive review of the agreement that was promised. With sixty-six percent of Taiwanese preferring to support the current state of cross-strait relations, concerns about becoming too easily manipulated by Beijing linger. The “occupy” movement is thus a chance for Taiwanese citizens to raise these concerns and to apply brakes to Taipei’s relationship with Beijing, thereby giving the opposition time to propose a “better agreement” than the current trade pact. Second, public opposition to Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou is likely to continue. With an approval rating of 12.8 percent, the lowest since his inauguration, broad discontent will continue after President Ma’s under-the-table hustling of the trade agreement with China. The KMT’s unilateral decision to push the trade pact through hurts relations with the opposition DPP. Not allowing full review of the trade agreement has fueled public perceptions that core KMT leaders are sacrificing Taiwanese interests to strengthen ties with mainland China. The protests surrounding the trade pact agreement thus create opportunities for the DPP in both this fall’s local elections and the 2016 presidential elections. Third, the implications of these protests for cross-strait relations should not be underestimated. Not only will the Taiwanese be skeptical of top Taiwanese leaders when they conduct negotiations with Beijing, but the island will be in no rush to reach subsequent agreements with mainland China. The current occupation movement is proof that a portion of the Taiwanese public feels disenfranchised by its government. It is one thing to have the parliamentary approval process expedited; but when the agreement is not given a full review, leaving the island susceptible to future political or economic influence from Beijing, it is hardly surprising that protests have erupted. Few are ready or willing to see Taiwan become the next Hong Kong. The Taiwanese know well the challenges of democracy building. These protests will be another learning experience for Taiwan, albeit one with unavoidable consequences for relations with mainland China. As President Ma decides how best to respond to the current protests, he certainly knows Beijing will be watching. If the trade agreement is reconsidered, this would call into question both Taiwan’s ability to implement cross-strait agreements and Beijing’s use of cooperation strategies toward Taipei.

Hunter Gross is an intern for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. The four-day visit between Zhang Zhijun, director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) and Wang Yu-chi, chairman of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), has been described as “historic,” “a turning point in relations,” and “unimaginable.” But the meeting is not unprecedented. In recent years, several encounters between Chinese and Taiwanese representatives have led to this moment. This meeting, however, serves as a symbolic affirmation of the relatively stable status quo that benefits both Beijing and Taipei. To be sure, from a diplomatic standpoint, this is the first official meeting between China and Taiwan since the end of the civil war in 1949. Despite the media hype, however, this is unlikely to bring about any substantial changes in cross-strait relations, and a dramatic change was not necessarily the goal. When thinking about Taiwan, the focus tends to be on its tense relations with Beijing, the possibility of unification, or Taiwan independence. This overlooks the de facto independence and peace Taiwan has enjoyed for the past sixty years. Cross-strait relations overall have been positive and lucrative. China and Taiwan negotiated the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in 2010, and there was an informal meeting between Chinese president Xi Jinping and the Taiwanese delegation at the October 2013 Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) forum in Bali. Under the ECFA, trade between Beijing and Taipei has doubled since 2008 and reached $197.2 billion in 2013. China is Taiwan’s number one trading partner, and Taiwan enjoys a $116 billion trade surplus with the mainland, making it one of the few entities that maintains a trade surplus with China. Formalizing diplomatic communication allows both sides to continue to benefit while avoided the extremes of unification or independence. From the Chinese government’s viewpoint, Xi Jinping already expressed the need to close the political divide. Beijing is eager to increase political ties in addition to economic cooperation while Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou is still in power. Ma, who leads the Kuomintang (KMT) Party and favors closer ties with Beijing, has become increasingly unpopular in Taiwan, and it is predicted that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will defeat the KMT in the 2016 national election. Time is running out for Beijing, which has good reason to be concerned that the post-Ma government will be less cooperative. Formalizing relations now serves to lock in the progress made in cross-strait relations and to set a framework through which to maintain relations with Taiwan regardless of a transition in its leadership. Furthermore, the current status quo allows Beijing to avoid conflict with Taipei while continuing to oppose Taiwan’s independence, thereby maintaining Communist Party legitimacy. In addition, China is able to maintain a lucrative trading partner and stands to benefit by achieving a diplomatic success in the region despite the recent flare up of tensions over territorial disputes. For its part, Taiwan enjoys de facto independence, a free media, and a democratic political system. Institutionalizing the status quo allows Taipei to maintain its balancing game of benefitting from good relations with Beijing while buying time and avoiding agreeing to policies that conflict with its interests. Unlike mainland leaders, the Taiwanese leadership is elected and is directly accountable to its citizens. Polls show that 66 percent of Taiwanese citizens prefer the status quo, 24 percent want independence, and only 7 percent support unification. Moreover, entering a slow, yet official, diplomatic process is beneficial to Taiwan because the increase in dialogue serves as a form of legitimization of Taiwan’s administrative legitimacy on the international stage. By addressing one another as “chairman” and “director,” both officials already demonstrated respect for the other’s jurisdiction, while simultaneously avoiding the question of sovereignty. Nonetheless, there are challenges inherent in simply codifying and preserving the status quo. Despite Taiwan’s de facto independence, China prevents many nations from signing trade deals with the island. While bilateral trade is booming, there is concern in Taipei that the island is growing economically dependent on the mainland. This concern was one of the major issues raised by the opposition to the ECFA, who feared that closer economic integration was a cover for unification. As the two economies become more integrated, there is also a concern about the rising influence of Beijing in Taiwan’s media and politics. Finally, while this meeting may very well set a precedent for future dialogue and negotiation, it is also possible that closer relations will reduce Taiwan’s ability to resist cooperation with Beijing on matters that conflict with Taipei’s interests. Although the recent diplomatic overture is unlikely to bring about significant changes, by institutionalizing cross-strait relations, this meeting sets a precedent for official channels of dialogue in the future. As a direct result of the talks, both sides announced they will establish representative offices in their respective territories which could allow for future humanitarian visits to detained nationals. Moreover, it is possible that future dialogue will allow for cross-strait layovers in Taiwan for Chinese citizens, provide healthcare to Taiwanese students in China, create follow-up agreements under the ECFA, and establish future bilateral cooperation on regional economic integration. Despite official diplomatic efforts, leaders on both sides have to contend with their people. The recent controversy over the Taiwanese actress who provoked an online debate after saying she was “abroad” while on the mainland shows that individual voices on both sides of the strait often can speak louder than state diplomacy. Finally, despite Zhang Zhijun’s rejection of Wang Yu-chi’s request for Xi Jinping to meet Ma Ying-jeou at the APEC summit in Beijing, Zhang did accept an invitation to visit Taiwan this summer, which reveals a desire to pursue future dialogue albeit at a slow pace and on Beijing’s terms.

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Secretary Kerry visits South Korea, China, and Indonesia on Asia tour. U.S. secretary of state John Kerry’s trip marks his fifth to Asia during his first year in office. In Seoul, he met with South Korean president Park Geun-hye and Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se to discuss the South’s relations with North Korea, including efforts to facilitate reunions between family members on the divided peninsula. Secretary Kerry arrived in Beijing on Friday, where he met with Chinese president Xi Jinping and other senior officials to address issues ranging from nuclear disarmament talks with North Korea to climate change to regional tensions in the East and South China Seas. His Asia trip will wrap up in Indonesia, where he will deliver a speech on climate change. Secretary Kerry’s trip coincides with this week’s White House announcement that U.S. president Barack Obama will travel to Asia in April. 2. China and Taiwan hold historic talks, but Chinese president Xi Jinping declines to meet with Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou. China and Taiwan held their first formal high-level talks since China’s civil war ended in 1949. As expected, the talks in Nanjing yielded no concrete agreements and were considered to be mainly a confidence-building exercise. The meeting between the two top cross-strait officials had no flags on display and officials’ nameplates had no titles or affiliations. However, after the talks, China rejected President Ma’s offer of a meeting between Ma and President Xi at the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in October. The meeting could only take place if Ma participates as the president of the Republic of China, which Beijing does not recognize as a nation. 3. Bangladeshi factory owners charged in country’s worst factory fire turn themselves in. The owners of Tazreen Fashions, Delwar Hossain and his wife Mahmuda Akter, gave themselves up to a court in Dhaka on Sunday and have been jailed for homicide. They are charged with culpable homicide in the November 2012 factory fire that resulted in the deaths of 112 workers, many of whom were ordered to keep working as alarms rang. Investigators originally stated that there was not enough evidence to prosecute the couple, but the country’s High Court ordered a deeper investigation following a petition from activists and lawyers. Bangladesh is the world’s second-largest apparel exporter after China, and its powerful garment industry is often above the law.  4. New premier elected in Nepal. Nepal’s parliament elected Sushil Koirala, a longtime democracy activist, as the country’s new prime minister on Monday. His election was made possible after Nepal’s two primary parties, the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist, or CPN-UML), signed a seven-point accord, ending the post-civil war political paralysis that had plagued Nepal since 2006. After elections last November, Mr. Koirala’s party, the Nepali Congress, emerged with the most seats in the country’s Constituent Assembly. Mr. Koirala was sworn into office one day after winning this week’s election, but now faces the potential for more political gridlock; his party’s main coalition partner, CPN-UML, will not join the government because Mr. Koirala did not give it the home minister profile. 5. North Korea agrees to move forward with family reunions. North and South Korea are moving forward in the new year, as officials from the two nations met on Friday for a second round of high-level talks to secure the planned family reunions for separated Korean families, scheduled for February 20 to 25. Following the talks at the border village of Panmunjom, North Korea rescinded its earlier threat to cancel the reunions; last week Pyongyang had asserted that regularly scheduled U.S.-South Korean military drills—planned for February 27 through March 9—constitute “a reckless act of war” that make proceeding with the reunions impossible. Seoul plans to send a team to North Korea on Saturday to prepare for the reunions, said a government spokesperson. The last reunion of separated families occurred in 2010, and Friday’s talks were the highest level talks between the two Koreas since 2007.  Bonus: India’s athletes can now compete for their country after snafu; China derides Western criticism of Olympics. The International Olympic Committee lifted a ban on India as a competing nation, the first time a ban has been lifted during an Olympic Games. India was suspended last year over the election of an official convicted of corruption to a top post; Indian athletes marched as “independent Olympic athletes” instead of under their own flag at the opening ceremony. In other Olympic news, China’s Global Times published an op-ed deriding “Western bigotry” for criticizing human rights abuses at the Sochi Olympics, saying, “The noises around the Sochi Games have once again shown the narrow mind of the West.”

Darcie Draudt, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. Cambodian police fire on garment protesters, killing at least three. Police fired on garment workers and their supporters as they protested for higher wages on Friday. A spokesman for Phnom Penh’s police department said that three were killed and two wounded, while the United National special rapporteur to Cambodia claimed four were killed and dozens injured. Tensions began when police cracked down on a small demonstration outside a South Korean-owned factory on Thursday. Clothing accounts for $5 billion worth of exports per year in Cambodia, making it the country’s largest industrial sector. Labor unions have been fighting for a minimum wage of $160 per month; the government has offered to raise it to $100 per month. The strike comes amid protests by the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party against Prime Minister Hun Sen’s administration and challenging the results of a July election. The party said that it plans to hold another demonstration on Sunday. 2. Kim Jong-un’s New Year address outlines North Korea’s 2014 goals. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un delivered a New Year’s speech, his second in what is to be expected a revived annual tradition. Many North Korea observers look to it as a thermometer of Pyongyang’s domestic and international intentions for the coming year. Beginning last year, Kim revived the annual tradition of his grandfather, which his father did not continue. The speech did not announce major shifts in policy; the dual approach (byungjin) policy was upheld. Several media stories caught on to the mention of the recent execution of his uncle and former advisor Jang Song-taek, purportedly conciliatory language toward South Korea, and intentions to beef up military capabilities. The speech also outlined several specific plans for domestic economic development, including in agriculture, heavy and light industries, and culture and sports. 3. Chinese helicopter rescues fifty-two from stranded ship in Antarctic. A helicopter based on the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long retrieved fifty-two passengers from an icebound Russian research ship, the Akademik Shokalskiy, on Thursday. The Xue Long, along with icebreakers from Australia and France, were unable to reach the ship, requiring an airlift. The Xue Long was stationed twelve miles away as the passengers, trapped since December 24, were ferried twelve at a time back to the ship. The operation was scheduled to take place earlier in the week, but harsh weather conditions prevented the rescue effort. The rescue effort was overseen by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority and has been hailed widely as an example of successful international cooperation. 4. Supporters of Bangladesh’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) clash with police at polls. Two people died during protests and clashes between opposition BNP supporters and police. The protesters demand that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina step down and install a neutral government. The leader of the BNP party, Khaleda Zia, called for a march on the capital on January 5 in defiance of a police ban. Police surrounded the home of Zia, a former prime minister, and prevented her followers from rallying outside partyheadquarters in Dhaka. More than one hundred have died and 650 have been detained as a result of election protests over several weeks. The government has vowed to hold elections on Sunday despite the protests and a boycott by opposition candidates, and winners have already been declared without contest in more than half of the assembly seats because of the boycott. 5. China’s central auditing agency releases report on local government debt. The National Audit Office report [in Chinese] found that the total debt of local government in China has climbed to nearly $3 trillion, further raising concerns about the country’s debt levels. Debt and guarantees issued by local governments were 17.9 trillion yuan as of the end of June, up 67 percent since the end of 2010 when it totaled 10.7 trillion yuan. The June 2013 amount represents a 12.7 percent increase on local government debt from December 2012, according to the report. Almost 40 percent of the current amount will mature by the end of this year, spurring the National Development and Reform Commission to announce that local governments will be allowed to issue bonds as a way of rolling over their debt to avoid defaults. Bonus: Eighteen-meter rubber duck bursts in Taiwanese port. The giant yellow duck, created as an art installation by Dutch artist Florentijn Hofman, deflated on January 1, just eleven days after arriving Keelung Port in northeastern Taiwan. Versions of the floating sculpture had previously been shown in Kaoshiung and Taoyoun County; the latter version also burst and had to be replaced by the Kaoshiung duck. The Keelung duck was scheduled to be in the port until February 28 and was expected to draw millions of visitors. Hofman says his ducks represent “peace and harmony” and has brought them to Hong Kong, Osaka, Sydney, Sao Paulo, Auckland, and Amsterdam. City officials have yet to discern the cause of the burst.

The news last week that China has passed the United States as the world’s largest net oil importer points to a number of significant geopolitical shifts that have been long in the making, including China’s increased diplomatic presence in the Middle East and its efforts to develop overland pipelines to energy sources in Central Asia. This transformation is also forcing us to rethink how an actual military conflict may unfold in East Asia, highlighting new vulnerabilities and strategies. In Oil Security and Conventional War, published today by CFR’s Program on Energy Security and Climate Change, Rosemary Kelanic models the fuel requirements in the case of an air war between Taiwan and China (the United States remains on the sideline in this scenario). Fuel could become a significant constraint on both parties, larger than is commonly expected. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force would require 76,000 barrels of jet fuel daily, and could meet civilian and military requirements for about a month and a half, after which it would have to cut civilian consumption by 75 percent. This becomes the critical question for China’s leadership--how to reduce civilian demand in the course of the conflict to stretch out military use past forty-eight days if necessary. Taiwan could hold out for longer, meeting its civilian and military jet fuel needs for five months, but only if it could protect its domestic refineries and strategic reserves from destruction, a big if given the PLA’s arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles. While this new report, like Jason Glab’s and Sean Mirski’s studies on the U.S. Navy’s ability to conduct a maritime blockade against China, focuses on military and economic capabilities, it also highlights some of the political and strategic questions involved. Unknown, and perhaps unknowable, in all of these works is both how the Chinese government manages the domestic economy and how the population responds to economic deprivation—with nationalist fervor and a willingness to sacrifice for military goals or discontent and political protests. The response of China’s neighbors is also critical. Whether they enforce a blockade or help China access other sources of oil is highly dependent on how and why conflict breaks out. Much will be written over the coming months about this historical transformation. Go read the whole report. It does an excellent job of laying out why China’s leadership is right to be sensitive about oil security.

Sharone Tobias and Will Piekos look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. China fines milk formula companies. The Chinese government has fined six milk formula companies a total of $110 million for anti-competitive behavior and price fixing, the largest fine the Chinese government has ever instituted for violations of antitrust laws. Five of the companies are foreign, hailing from France, New Zealand, the Netherlands, and the United States, and one company is based in Hong Kong. The price of milk formula has risen 30 percent since 2008, when Chinese-made milk formula was linked to infant deaths and consumers rushed to buy foreign brands. Chinese state-run media has run multiple front-page articles about the case. Just days before, Fonterra, one of the companies fined by the government, recalled thirty-eight tons of contaminated whey protein used in baby formula, another scare in China’s food safety crisis. 2. China releases promising trade numbers. China’s July trade data revealed promising signs that China’s economy might be stabilizing after a six-month slowdown. Stronger-than-expected global demand for China’s exports—in particular from the United States and Europe, as well as Southeast Asia—also signaled improving global economic prospects, while increased imports in China suggested a strengthening domestic economy. The trade numbers improve China’s chances of achieving this year’s target for economic growth of 7.5 percent, already China’s lowest in decades. 3. Japan lodges protest with China over island dispute. Japan has summoned a China envoy to protest an unusually long visit by Chinese coast guard vessels to waters close to the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea. Chinese ships have been encroaching upon territorial waters on a near-daily basis, but those visits usually last only a few hours; the latest visit lasted twenty-eight hours. The small, uninhabited islands have been a source of dispute for decades, and tensions reignited in September when the Japanese government nationalized the islands. 4. Thirty Muslim Rohingya escape Thai jail. Thirty Rohingya asylum seekers escaped jail in southern Thailand where they were being held, along with 1,700 others, for illegally crossing the border. The Rohingya are a Muslim minority from Myanmar who have been the target of ethnically-charged attacks by Buddhists in the country. 5. Taiwan lifts economic sanctions against the Philippines. The Taiwanese government has ended a three month-long freeze on trade with the Philippines, in effect ever since an incident on May 9 that left one Taiwanese fisherman dead. The Philippine government apologized to the family of the fisherman killed and has said it will bring murder charges against the eight coast guard personnel who shot at the man. In China, the "Walking Dead" get thirsty too. Han, a Chinese drink vendor, faked his death at the hands of China’s chengguan, an unarmed, semi-official enforcement force, hoping to gain compensation for the his death. Angry that the chengguan were forcing drink vendors to move their stands and were confiscating their merchandise, Han and his accomplices pretended he had been killed; their plan fell apart when Han, suffering under a sheet for two hours while he was "dead," was caught drinking a bottle of water.