Pakistan

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. After a six month suspension, CIA resumes drone strikes in Pakistan. Two U.S. drones struck Pakistan’s North Waziristan tribal region this week, killing several militants from Pakistani Taliban-allied factions, including the Haqqani network (which until recently held Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl hostage). The strikes came in the wake of the terrorist attack on the international airport in Karachi last Sunday; more than thirty people were killed including the militants. The Pakistani Taliban, or Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), claimed responsibility for the attack as retaliation for “the shelling and atrocities of the government.” Peace talks between the TTP and the Pakistani government have foundered and do not appear recoverable, and Pakistan is “mulling a new offensive of its own” against the militants. Although Pakistan has publicly condemned the U.S. drone strikes, anonymous government officials have admitted Islamabad gave the Americans “express approval” to carry out the strikes. 2. Japan, China exchange blame over jet encounter. For the second time since China established an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in November 2013—which overlaps with Japan’s own ADIZ above the East China Sea—a Chinese fighter jet and Japanese Self-Defense Force aircraft flew within just 30 meters (100 feet) of each other. The encounter followed another close call on May 24 between Japanese and Chinese jets, and like the earlier incident both sides were quick to blame the other. Japanese defense minister Itsunori Onodera said it was the Chinese fighter jet who flew abnormally close, calling the action “extremely dangerous as it could have led to an accident.” In contrast, China’s Defense Ministry released what it says is video footage of the incident, blaming the Japanese pilot for flying too close and for “playing up the so-called ‘Chinese military threat’.” Onodera responded by asserting that the video showed Japanese Self-Defense Forces aircraft scrambling in accordance with international rules, and urged Japan and China to develop a maritime communication mechanism “in order to prevent accidents from escalating to be a serious clash.” 3. Beijing releases white paper on Hong Kong policy, starts protests. Mere days after tens of thousands of Hong Kong residents held a vigil to commemorate the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Tiananmen Square military crackdown, Beijing released a white paper reminding Hong Kong that it has “comprehensive jurisdiction over all local administrative regions, including the HKSAR [Hong Kong Special Administrative Region].” The white paper, issued by the Chinese State Council, also stressed that some “wrong views” exist in Hong Kong about political reforms. The white paper also reaffirmed Beijing’s promise to allow universal suffrage and direct election for Hong Kong’s leader in 2017, but residents are concerned that Beijing will only allow “patriots” to run. Hong Kong has retained a special status within China since it was ceased to be a British colony in 1997, and retains its own political system and some autonomy under the “One Country, Two Systems” policy. The Democratic Party of Hong Kong canceled a meeting with the mainland liaison office over the paper. 4. Trial of Sewol ferry crew begins in Gwangju, South Korea. The trial of the captain and fourteen crew members of the capsized Sewol ferry began on Tuesday in Gwangju, South Korea. The captain and three crew members face a potential death sentence, while eleven other crew members are being tried for lesser charges of criminal negligence and maritime law violations. The defendants argued that they could not control the number of passengers on the boat, which was decided in advance of the trip. The incident has sparked national outrage, leading to the examination and criticism of the national government’s capacity to react to such situations; indeed, to many this is a trial of Korean politics as much as the crew members. The search for the ferry owner Yoo Byung-un also continues; on Wednesday around 6,000 police officers raided a church compound partly owned by Yoo. 5. Myanmar proposes criminalization of interfaith marriage; U.S. has serious concerns. Amid rising sectarian tension in Myanmar, the country’s parliament is reviewing laws aimed at protecting the majority Buddhist identity by regulating religious conversations and interfaith marriages, banning polygamy, and curbing population growth. The U.S. Department of State voiced its serious concerns about the impact upon religious freedom; and the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom further noted that the proposed laws risk stoking violence against Muslims and other religious minorities. After meeting with activists, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has said she will submit a report of recommendations to parliament. If the laws are passed, Washington will have to factor these developments into its evolving relationship with Myanmar. Bonus: Thai military junta requires telecom companies provide World Cup coverage for free. Following a military coup last month, the new ruling junta has ordered telecommunications officials to air the World Cup for free in Thailand as part of a “happiness campaign.” Whether the campaign takes citizens’ minds off of their newly lost democratic freedoms remains to be seen.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. And the results are in: A Modi mandate in India! The five-week marathon of elections is complete in India, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has emerged victorious, winning the party’s highest-ever tally of seats in parliament. No single party has captured the number of seats needed to form a government—272—on its own in thirty years, making this election particularly significant in Indian politics. Despite his controversial past, Narendra Modi will lead the new Indian government and will be expected to deliver on his campaign promises of economic growth and good governance. The Congress party—which has been in power for the past decade and promoted Rahul Gandhi as its candidate for prime minister—has conceded its defeat, remarking “Modi promised the moon and stars to the people. People bought that dream.” 2. Three Chinese officials stabbed to death in latest Xinjiang violence. A report from Radio Free Asia said that three Han Chinese government officials were stabbed to death and their bodies dumped into a lake in the restive province of Xinjiang on April 27, during Chinese president Xi Jinping’s visit to the region. The Chinese government blamed the incident on Islamic separatists seeking an independent Uighur nation. Violence has recently been on the rise in Xinjiang, with three people killed, including two attackers, and seventy-nine wounded at a bomb and knife attack in Urumqi last month. The Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP), a militant Islamic group, recently claimed responsibility for the attack in Urumqi. 3. At least twenty-one dead in anti-China protests in Vietnam. At least twenty-one people have been killed and one hundred injured in violent protests against China after the state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation stationed an oil rig in a contested area of the South China Sea. Anti-China crowds set fire to factories and industrial parks and attacked Chinese workers, as well as Taiwanese, Singaporean, and South Korean businesses mistaken for being owned by mainland Chinese companies. One of the largest attacks centered on a Taiwanese steel mill in central Vietnam, where one thousand rioters set buildings ablaze and attacked employees, killing five Vietnamese and sixteen Chinese workers. Vietnam and China have been engaged in a tense standoff in the South China Sea after Beijing deployed a mobile oil rig and dozens of security vessels into contested territory. Three other countries, Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines, also have territorial disputes with China in the region. 4. Japan moves forward with collective self-defense. In a televised address on Thursday, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said that Japan should allow its military, the Self-Defense Forces, to come to the aid of other allies under attack in certain scenarios, exercising what is known as “collective self-defense.” Japan has long acknowledged that it has a right to collective self-defense (as stipulated under Article 51 of the UN Charter), but past governments have banned the practice based on their interpretation of the pacifist Article 9 of Japan’s post-war Constitution. In his remarks, Abe pledged to uphold Japan’s pacifist principles, but said that allowing for collective self-defense was necessary to “strengthen deterrence and prevent Japan from being involved in conflict and warfare.”  Abe’s speech followed the release of a new report from his Advisory Panel on Reconstruction of the Legal Basis for Security, which argues that collective self-defense falls under the minimum level of defense already allowed by Article 9 and should be permitted given Japan’s changing security environment. 5. Pakistan steps up vaccinations amid polio emergency.  The World Health Organization (WHO) declared Pakistan to be “off track” in stopping polio transmission with sixty-two new polio cases this year, a majority of which are in the restive Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Under recommendations from the WHO, Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif directed the Pakistan army to regulate ingress of people into the FATA only after polio vaccine has been administered. Residents of the tribal belt will not be allowed to travel to other regions without the immunization; all Pakistanis will further be required to get a polio vaccination before travel abroad. The WHO has claimed that the outbreak can be overcome within one year, but concerns that fundamentalists will continue attacks against vaccination personnel remain. Bonus: Bhutan set to become world’s first organic country. In a country where gross national happiness trumps gross domestic product, Bhutan’s leaders are planning to turn their agricultural sector completely organic, ridding the country of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Since last month’s Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development, the government of Bhutan has been developing a national organic policy to encourage sustainable farming and rural prosperity. A majority of the agricultural land is already organic by default, but experts speculate that a fully organic Bhutan would hurt export crop levels.

This post is part of a series on the Indian elections. I had the opportunity yesterday to speak with three of India’s leading foreign policy experts on what the next Indian government’s foreign policy inbox would contain. Given that the latest opinion polls overwhelmingly favor the Bharatiya Janata Party, our panel focused on the likely policy priorities of a Narendra Modi-led government. Our half hour Google Hangout, now viewable on CFR’s YouTube channel, featured the Times of India’s senior diplomatic editor, Indrani Bagchi; Gateway House’s founder and executive director, Manjeet Kripalani; and the Delhi Policy Group’s director general, Dr. Radha Kumar. Each highlighted a series of priorities a Modi government would likely pursue. Manjeet had just returned from five days observing the campaign trail in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and she kicked off our discussion with some reflections on the energy animating young India’s enthusiasm for Mr. Modi. (India has around 100 million first-time voters in this election; demographically, more than 50 percent of the population is under age 25). She remarked in particular that the Modi campaign had managed to break the one-time truism of politics in North India: that caste rules. Instead, she found that his appeal cut across caste groups and had given India’s youth a "view of their future." Young people told her they would vote for him because he would give them jobs. So what would a Modi government take as its diplomatic priorities? Indrani noted that the next government’s foreign policy would likely be "intimately tied" to economic priorities. India’s recent economic downturn will require serious work to rebuild, and the next Indian government would likely utilize the tools of diplomacy to help reinvigorate the Indian economy, including through pitching for investment. Indian diplomats may very well find themselves spending more time on trade promotion and attracting investment--a subject Modi has spoken about frequently. (Read Indrani’s column on this here). The question of Afghanistan and regional stability following the United States and international troop drawdown is matter of enormous concern to India due to the threat of terrorism in the region. Radha first explained that the next Indian government would hope to see the long-awaited Bilateral Security Agreement signed between the United States and Afghanistan, as well as a Status of Forces Agreement with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in order to “give a level of confidence” for international engagement in Afghanistan—which India would view as helpful to regional stability. But she noted that it appears clear that post-2014, the onus will fall to the Heart of Asia countries to “take initiatives for stabilization and of course economic investment in Afghanistan.” So the next Indian government will need to be looking at ways to work with China and Russia and others on these questions. On the important related question of Pakistan, Radha sees the next Indian government as looking to continue the Vajpayee-initiated outreach, perhaps putting “more muscle into it” and looking to see what opportunities might be possible through the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, or bilaterally. That said, Radha expressed concern that Pakistan’s own volatility might prove limiting to India’s options for normalization—but India should continue to try. (The Delhi Policy Group’s regional conference report on Afghanistan can be accessed here, and recent work on Pakistan here). Looking at international economic priorities from the perspective of India’s financial capital, Mumbai, Manjeet observed the intrinsic importance of cross-border trade between India and Pakistan as necessary to realize a South Asian century. Indian and Pakistani businesspeople suffer what she called a “30 percent tax” in cross-border trade since it is routed via the United Arab Emirates rather than directly. A Modi government would likely be “practical” on Pakistan, looking for economic growth enhanced by trade-led efforts toward normalization of Indo-Pak ties. She felt that inclusion of India in the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement would go a long way to realizing regional trade potential. (Her take on the corridors of India’s economic diplomacy can be found here). These are just a few of the highlights of our discussion; for the rest of the Hangout, including what the next Indian government would be looking for from the United States, take a look at the video! Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa 

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Obama on a four-country tour of Asia to reassure allies and reinforce U.S. rebalancing. Obama began his Asia tour in Japan, where he discussed trade negotiations (see story below). He made waves when he reassured Japan that Washington was committed to its defense, including in the East China Sea, where maritime disputes between China and Japan have caused skirmishes and tension. While the United States does not officially take a position on the administration of the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, Obama said, “historically they have been administered by Japan and we do not believe that they should be subject to change unilaterally.” Obama then traveled to South Korea, where he expressed his condolences for the victims of the capsized Sewol ferry. He also said that it may be time for the United States and its allies to consider “further isolation” of North Korea if it continues to conduct nuclear tests. Obama will continue to Malaysia and the Philippines this weekend and early next week. 2. U.S. and Japan progress on TPP talks, but Obama leaves without a deal. President Obama and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe worked around the clock on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement during his recent Tokyo visit, a U.S.-led free trade initiative involving twelve nations. Japanese finance minister Taro Aso complained that “no agreement would ever be reached until the U.S. midterm elections are over.” Congress is unlikely to give Obama the fast-track authority to strike a deal, making the discussions more difficult. On Japan’s side, farmers pushed to keep the steep tariffs on imports of certain agricultural products; though Japan offered reductions on some agricultural items, Prime Minister Abe was not willing to further compromise and risk angering the important constituency. 3. Pacific navies agree to CUES. The Code of Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) was approved by the twenty-one member states of the Western Pacific Naval Symposium this week. The member states include China, the United States, Japan, and the Philippines. The hope is that the code will “reduce interference and uncertainty during unexpected contact between naval vessels or aircraft.” The agreement is nonbinding and voluntary. For its part, China has made it clear that the code will not change the country’s territorial claims. 4. Thirty-seven suspected militants killed in Pakistani airstrikes. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government ended their ceasefire with the Pakistani Taliban on Thursday, launching an operation targeting militant hideouts in the Khyber tribal region bordering Afghanistan. The operation was in response to a wave of militant attacks against police and civilians in Islamabad and Peshawar. The Tehrik-e-Taliban formally ended their ceasefire with the government on April 16, but are still involved in peace talks. The two parties met on Wednesday in an attempt to reinvigorate the negotiations, agreeing to create a subcommittee to handle complaints from both sides. 5. Public outrage mounts against governmental response to capsized South Korean ferry. Response to the Sewol ferry accident off the southwest coast of the country has been met with widespread public censure, ranging from how parents of schoolchildren on the boat were counseled, how public administration and security installed crisis response centers, the sloppiness and lateness of rescue operations, and the absence of communication. The captain and crew have been arrested for alleged negligence and abandonment, which under South Korean law is illegal. President Park Geun-hye, apparently taking cues from the public opinion backlash, declared the actions of the captain and crew of the Sewol as “tantamount to murder;” her comments have been criticized for attempting to deflect blame away from her administration. As of Thursday, the number of confirmed deaths was 171, with an additional 130 people still missing. Bonus: Justin Bieber visits Japan’s Yasukuni shrine. Justin Beiber stumbled into the geopolitical spotlight this week when he posted two photos to his Instagram and Twitter accounts from his visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo. Known for his chart-topping hits, not his political awareness, Beiber captioned one photo quite simply, “thank you for your blessings.” While the photos have since been deleted, the damage has been done. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said he hopes the “so-called Canadian famous singer” can “learn more about the history of Japanese militarism.” Bieber ultimately issued an apology to those offended by his visit.

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Mass stabbing in Kunming, China, leaves thirty-three dead and 130 injured. Eight people armed with knives attacked travelers in a train station in the southwestern city of Kunming on Saturday. Four attackers were shot dead, one was wounded and captured, and three other attackers were apprehended near the border with Vietnam. Though no group has claimed responsibility for the attack, called “China’s 9/11” by Chinese media, early signs suggest that Uighur separatists are the perpetrators. The western province of Xinjiang, home to the the Muslim Uighur minority group, has a tenuous relationship with Han Chinese based on religious, cultural, and linguistic differences. The last attack by Uighur’s against Han occurred in November 2013, when three Uighurs drove an SUV through Tiananmen Square in Beijing, killing themselves and two tourists. These two attacks were especially surprising because they occurred half a country away from Xinjiang, where the vast majority of China’s twenty-two million Uighurs live. The governor of Xinjiang signaled that the Communist Party would crack down on separatist groups in the region. 2. China’s NPC, CPPCC meet, marking one year in office for President Xi Jinping. The National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s parliament, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the country’s top political advisory body, began their annual meeting this week. Though the NPC is seen as little more than a rubber stamp for the Communist Party’s decisions, it signals the state’s priorities for the next year. On the opening day of the Congress, Premier Li Keqiang presented his work report—among its most important points were: China’s growth target would be set at about 7.5 percent; the country’s military budget would increase by 12.2 percent; Beijing would launch “a war on pollution”; and China would expand President Xi’s anti-corruption policies. 3. North Korea test-fires missiles into East Sea. North Korea fired seven short-range missiles from its east coast on March 4, the most recent in a slew of missile tests. Just minutes following the launch, a Chinese passenger plane flying from Tokyo to Shenyang, China, passed through the trajectory of one of the missiles. North Korea launched four short-range missiles on February 27 and another two on March 3. The tests follow the conclusion of annual U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises, though many experts say the launches will not raise tension in the region. The tests have since prompted the UN Security Council on March 5 to extend its sanctions on North Korea through April 2015. Despite its reticence to respond to diplomacy, North Korea has had careful engagement with its neighbors recently, including reunions for separated families with South Korea last month and a visit by the Japanese Red Cross to Pyongyang on March 3 to discuss the repatriation of the remains of Japanese nationals buried in the North. Japanese government officials accompanying the envoy were able to conduct informal talks with North Korean officials. 4. Caroline Kennedy urges Japan, South Korea to mend ties. In an interview with Hiroko Kuniya for the show Close-Up Gendai, which aired on Japan’s national broadcaster NHK, Ambassador Kennedy said that it was up to Japan and South Korea to improve their relations, but that the United States is “happy to help” in any way possible. “The three countries can work together, will work together, and I think these good relations are in everyone’s interests,” Kennedy said. Tensions between Japan and South Korea have been high for some time. Earlier reports had suggested that the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo was reluctant to give NHK an interview with Ambassador Kennedy because of controversial remarks about WWII history made by some of the broadcaster’s board members. Kennedy did reiterate the negative U.S. view toward Prime Minister Abe’s visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, but she also praised Abe as a “strong, stable leader” and a “wonderful partner” for the United States. 5. Suicide bomber kills 11 in Pakistan; talks with Taliban resume.Two suicide bombers killed eleven people in Islamabad’s district court complex on Monday, the deadliest terrorist attack in Pakistan’s capital in five years. Ahrar-ul-Hind, an offshoot of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the country’s biggest militant coalition, has claimed responsibility for Monday’s attacks. The attack came days after the Pakistani government and the TTP announced a month-long ceasefire. The ceasefire was supposed to head off a Pakistani military operation against militant strongholds, allowing for the resumption of peace talks between Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government and the TTP. Last month, peace talks between the two sides broke down after a Taliban faction killed twenty-three paramilitary soldiers.  Bonus: Nepal making Mount Everest climbers take out the trash. With climbing season for Mount Everest starting, Nepal’s tourism ministry is enforcing a new rule: clean up after yourself. Climbers must return to base camp with eighteen pounds of garbage, or forfeit a $4,000 deposit. The new regulation is an attempt for Everest to dump its nickname as the “world’s highest garbage dump.” The rule won’t do much about the garbage heaps already on Everest, but it will at least keep the situation from getting worse.

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. UN releases report on North Korean human rights violations. The United Nations Commission of Inquiry (COI) on human rights in North Korea, established in March 2013, released its findings on February 17, 2014. Led by former Australian high court justice Michael Kirby, the commission was tasked with investigating “systematic, widespread and grave violations of human rights…with a mind in view to ensuring full accountability, in particular for violations which may constitute crimes against humanity.” The thirty-six-page report (and accompanying 372 pages of detailed findings) says it wants the international community to take responsibility for protecting the people of North Korea and argues that the commission does not support UN Security Council sanctions against the North due to the dire circumstances of the people. On February 18, the UN high commissioner for human rights suggested that world powers refer North Korea to the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court. While defectors have cast doubt the report will lead to prosecution for crimes against humanity, some analysts believe this will function a reference for future interaction with Pyongyang. 2. U.S. actions add friction to U.S.-China relations. Captain James Fannell, the head of U.S. naval intelligence in the Pacific, stated that China is preparing for a “short, sharp war” to take the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands from Japan. Speaking at the West 2014 conference in San Diego, he added that for Beijing, “’protection of maritime rights’ is a Chinese euphemism for coerced seizure of coastal rights of China’s neighbors” and predicted that China will declare  an air defense identification zone in the South China Sea by the end of 2015. The Pentagon was quick to distance itself from the comments, though as of FAU’s posting, Beijing has not yet responded. Meanwhile, U.S. president Barack Obama is hosting the Dalai Lama, Tibet’s spiritual leader, in the White House on Friday. As always, the Chinese government denounced the visit as a “gross interference” in China’s internal affairs that will “seriously damage” U.S.-China relations. 3. Are nationalist remarks harming the U.S.-Japan relationship? On Tuesday, Seiichi Eto, a special adviser to Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, posted a video on YouTube in which he criticized the Obama administration for expressing “disappointment” at Abe’s visit to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, saying Washington “doesn’t make much of Japan.” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga was quick to emphasize that the comments are not those of the Japanese government, and the video was quickly removed. Nevertheless, the remarks came on the heels of other inflammatory comments from Abe appointments on the board of Japan’s national broadcasting corporation, NHK. 4. Indonesia upset at Australian spying. According to a New York Times report, a top secret document obtained by Edward Snowden shows that an American law firm was monitored while representing the Indonesian government on trade issues. The report revealed that the Australian Signals Directorate notified the NSA that it was conducting surveillance of the talks, even offering to share information. Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said that both countries should be “looking out for each other, not turning against one another.” Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott deflected criticism in a radio interview, urging both sides to focus instead upon Australia’s “strong intelligence cooperation with Indonesia.” Bilateral relations have been further strained this week after the Australian Defense Force released a review of six “inadvertent” incursions into Indonesian waters. 5. Airstrikes against Taliban resume after peace talks falter. Pakistan launched overnight airstrikes in North Waziristan and the Khyber tribal region late Wednesday, killing as many as thirty and destroying a trove of weapons and ammunition. The strike came after Pakistan called off peace talks with the Taliban after a faction claimed it captured twenty-three paramilitary soldiers and executed them in Afghanistan. The faction, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, also claimed responsibility last week for a bomb in Karachi that killed twelve police officers. The Taliban has said that it does not accept the constitution of Pakistan and wants to replace it with Islamic law. The airstrikes could be a prelude to a larger offensive into Pakistan’s tribal regions. Bonus: China loves House of Cards. Netflix’s House of Cards, which documents the political rise of Frank Underwood, is proving to be quite popular in China. According to Sohu, the Chinese version of Netflix and owner of the streaming rights, over 24.5 million viewers tuned in for the first season, and the show is especially popular with former government employees and Beijing residents. Wang Qishan, head of the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption body, has praised the show and highlighted the role of Underwood in ensuring party discipline, a job not unlike his own. Some have guessed that the show is popular among Chinese leaders because of its focus on political intrigue and inter-party struggles, whereas others think it is because the show suggests a high level of corruption in Washington. Whatever the reason, this attention is likely to only increase as China plays a big role in the new season’s plot, though for the sake of Asia Unbound’s readers we’ll keep this post spoiler free.

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Pakistan begins official peace talks with the Taliban. Pakistani government officials and Taliban representatives began formal talks on Thursday. The government delegation has requested an immediate cease-fire and that the talks to be limited to areas where the insurgency is strongest. The Taliban negotiators initially agreed to work within the framework of Pakistan’s constitution. However, one of the Taliban’s negotiators pulled out on Friday because he wanted the agenda included an imposition of Islamic law. Both sides described the talks as “cordial and friendly,” though many experts remain skeptical that they will bear fruit. By request of the Pakistani government during the peace talks, the Obama administration sharply curtailed drone strikes in Pakistan . 2. Thai elections show low confidence in ruling party; rice farmers join in protests against government. Only 47 percent of eligible voters showed up at polls in Thailand’s election on Sunday, compared to 75 percent in 2011, due to a boycott by the opposition Democrat Party and disruptive anti-government protests. Protesters shut down intersections across the country, and some gunmen even shot at would-be voters. A petition introduced by the opposition to nullify the election was rejected Friday on procedural grounds, though a related petition remains pending. In a new twist, many rice farmers have joined protests because they were not given the money they were promised in the government’s populist rice-purchase scheme, which promised farmers that the government would buy rice at above-market rates to boost rural incomes. 3. North Korea threatens to cancel family reunions over U.S.-South Korean military drills. The threat to cancel the family reunions, framed as a sincere effort by Seoul to warm North-South relations, comes only days after Pyongyang agreed to Seoul’s proposal to hold reunions in a resort in North Korea. On Thursday, a spokesperson for the North Korean National Defense Commission stated that the drills, which occur regularly and that Washington and Seoul contend are for defensive purposes, constitute a “reckless act of war.” “It does not make sense to carry out the reunion of families, who were separated due to the War, during a dangerous nuclear war practice,” said the North Korean spokesperson. South Korean Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae, urged Pyongyang to stick to its commitment. North Korea canceled scheduled reunions in September 2013. Family meetings have not occurred since 2010. 4. Indonesia reports slowest economic growth in four years. Indonesia’s economy expanded by only 5.78 percent in 2013, slowing for the third consecutive year. Finance Minister M. Chatib Basri and other government officials have said that sluggish growth is intentional; economic expansion is being sacrificed to decrease the $9.9 billion current account deficit and ensure sustainable long-term economic growth. With companies fearing to invest in Indonesia prior to a 2014 election, the country’s economy is expected to grapple with weaker growth in the coming years; the International Monetary Fund is projecting growth between 5 percent and 5.5 percent until 2015. 5. Philippines’ Aquino likens China’s claims in South China Sea to Hitler’s in Sudetenland. Speaking with the New York Times this week, President Benigno Aquino III of the Philippines called on the world to do more to help Manila resist China’s assertive maritime claims in the South China Sea. He stated, “At what point do you say, ‘Enough is enough’? Well, the world has to say it—remember that the Sudetenland was given in an attempt to appease Hitler to prevent World War II.” Naturally, Beijing was not pleased that its leadership had been likened to that of Nazi Germany; Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei stated that “Such a comparison is ridiculously inconceivable and unreasonable. The Chinese side is shocked and dissatisfied.” A Xinhua report was less diplomatic, calling President Aquino “an amateurish politician who was ignorant both of history and reality.” Bonus: Japan’s deaf composer is neither deaf nor a composer. Mamoru Samuragochi, nicknamed Japan’s "Beethoven," was exposed by his ghostwriter, composer Takashi Niigaki, as being neither deaf nor the composer of his own music. Mr. Samuragochi admitted that someone else had written his most famous works, including the themes to video games such as Resident Evil and Onimusha and a sonatina for Japanese Olympic figure skater Daisuke Takahashi.

Pakistan has emerged as a sanctuary for some of the world’s most violent groups, including al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and homegrown militants, that threaten the stability of Pakistan as well as the region.

Since November began, I’ve been struck by the great gulf in the zeitgeist between India and Pakistan. I don’t mean the gulf in how each perceives the other, though, or any preoccupation of Indo-Pakistan relations—I mean the vast difference in current events in each and the public debate surrounding them. On November 5, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) successfully launched a Mars orbiter mission, “Mangalyaan.” It will remain in the Earth’s orbit until December 1, at which point Mangalyaan will be launched to its Mars orbit destination, where it should arrive in some 300 days. Mangalyaan has been heralded as a demonstration of scientific research at comparatively low cost—said to be a $73 million mission—and once in place will be able to test for methane, take pictures of Mars, map the surface using infrared imagery, and analyze the atmosphere. NASA is slated to play a supporting role with data download and tracking. The mission has stirred up some controversy, however, with some commentators critiquing the cost at a time of economic slowdown in India and substantial human development needs at home. FirstPost ran a helpful budget comparison showing how the Mangalyaan undertaking stacks up against other big-ticket expenditures in India, such as election rallies in Uttar Pradesh or “four big Bollywood movies.” Sounds like a relative bargain. Meanwhile, across the Indus, following the November 1 drone strike against Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud, public debate seems as if from another planet. Politician Imran Khan, whose party controls the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, has angrily threatened a blockade of NATO supply lines in response. The head of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa chapter of the Jamaat-e-Islami called Mehsud a “martyr.” The prime minister’s office said he would chair a meeting to review ties with the United States. This, for the head of a designated terrorist group with a long list of claimed attacks, according to the New York Times’ backgrounder, including the attempted bombing of Times Square in 2010 and the shooting of Malala Yusufzai last year, not to mention numerous other attacks in Pakistan with devastating impact on Pakistanis. One country aims for the heavens and its citizens debate whether taxpayer funds would be better spent on advanced space research or on critical development investments. The other, suffering from vicious terrorist attacks, nonetheless has a public divided over whether terrorists who attack Pakistanis and would deny education to girls are dangerous threats to Pakistan’s own development—or whether they are martyrs in the fight to stand up to the United States.

Hello Asia Unbound readers! As CFR’s newest senior fellow, and the newest contributor to the blog, I look forward to adding a little more content on South Asia to the group effort. At CFR, I am covering the broader South Asian region, with a strong focus on India. I’ve spent my entire professional life working on South Asia, and there is never any shortage of new and interesting issues to explore. This year and next will bring sweeping political change to the region: there have been, or will be, elections in every single country, so there will be a lot to track. Coming up in November, for example, India kicks off a series of five state-level elections over several weeks that are widely seen as a barometer of whether the Indian National Congress, currently at the center of the ruling coalition, or the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will form the government once national elections take place next year. This contest between the only two parties with the reach and ability to form a national government among India’s thousand-plus registered parties is preoccupying pollsters and the Indian press, with a complex and fractious contest being portrayed as a fight between Congress’s Rahul Gandhi and the BJP’s Narendra Modi. But important elections are taking place elsewhere too: Maldivians should return to the polls for the second time on November 2, re-voting for president after the Supreme Court annulled the results of the September 7 election. And in Nepal, at long last citizens will vote for a new Constituent Assembly on November 19 after a long hiatus, since the previous Assembly expired on May 27, 2012. We’ll also be watching closely to see how Bangladesh resolves the impasse between the Awami League government, and the opposition Bangladesh National Party over the procedures to carry out national elections. And that’s just the political news cycle. There’s also much to pay attention to in the Indian economy, where policymakers are working to revive growth after a pronounced slump, dropping from what the Economist called a “sizzling” 9 percent in 2006, to the latest World Bank forecast of 4.7 percent (and the IMF’s latest projection was an even slower 3.8 percent). What happens in India’s economy, far and away the largest and most important in South Asia, matters for its ability to lift hundreds of millions out of poverty and into the middle class, in and of itself a task of historic impact. But the Indian economy, already the world’s third largest in PPP terms and featured in prominent future scenarios as likely to become the third largest in absolute terms by 2030 (OECD projection and Goldman Sachs, among many) also matters for U.S. business, for global economic growth, and for the future of regional economic integration. So I’ll be looking at the economic and business news closely here. Finally, I hope to post links to especially thoughtful longer essays, or relevant academic writing, or news of the surprising and unusual that catches my eye. There’s always something interesting, such as this review of a new edited collection of graphic stories about Partition. Among the extensive writings on the 1947 partition of India, graphic novels or graphic fiction a la Persepolis have not been a prominent genre, unlike the renowned fiction from the region, and of course superb scholarly writing. But this collection changes that, and with contributions from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Worth a look.