Malaysia

This past week, the Thai military launched its second coup in a decade, destroying what was left of Thailand’s shaky democratic system. This coup is likely to last longer, and be much harsher than the coup in 2006; already, the Thai armed forces are censoring Thai media and putting journalists and politicians in detention or in jail. Thailand’s return to military rule was hardly fated to happen. Between the late 1980s and the late 2000s, many countries in Southeast Asia were viewed, by global democracy analysts and Southeast Asians themselves, as leading examples of democratization in the developing world. By the late 2000s, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore all were ranked as “free” or “partly free” by the monitoring organization Freedom House, while Cambodia and, perhaps most surprisingly, Myanmar had both taken sizable steps toward democracy as well. Yet since the late 2000s, Southeast Asia’s democratization has stalled and, in some of the region’s most economically and strategically important nations, gone into reverse. Over the past ten years, Thailand has undergone a rapid and severe regression from democracy and is now ruled by a junta. Malaysia’s democratic institutions and culture have regressed as well, with the long-ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition cracking down on dissent and trying to destroy what had been an emerging, and increasingly stable, two-party system. In Cambodia and Myanmar, hopes for dramatic democratic change have fizzled. Only the Philippines and Indonesia have stayed on track, but even in these two countries democratic consolidation is threatened by the persistence of graft, public distrust of democratic institutions, and continued meddling in politics by militaries. Southeast Asia’s rollback from democracy reflects a worrying global retrenchment toward anti-democratic political change. The implications of this regression from democracy are significant. On a human level, the regression from democracy means that, compared to a decade ago, more of the world’s people are living today under authoritarian or hybrid, semi-authoritarian regimes. People living under authoritarian rule are more likely to have shorter and less healthy lives, as shown by indicators of human development. An increasingly authoritarian and unstable Southeast Asia is also a poor partner for the United States. Southeast Asia contains U.S. treaty allies Thailand and the Philippines, increasingly critical U.S. partners Singapore and Vietnam, and potentially valuable strategic partners like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar. Southeast Asia has become one of the largest engines of global growth, and the United States and several Southeast Asian nations are attempting to complete the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would be the largest free trade area in history in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). Regression from democracy will endanger all of this cooperation. History shows that the United States works most effectively around the world with other democracies, as demonstrated in organizations like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The United States’ partnerships with the more democratic nations in Southeast Asia follow this trend—these relationships tend to be more stable than U.S. relationships with more brittle and autocratic Southeast Asian regimes. Stronger democratic governments, including those in Southeast Asia, also usually can deliver the kind of long-term economic liberalization critical to foreign investment, since these economic reforms are not just implemented by fiat. If this democratic rollback continues, it is likely to seriously endanger American security cooperation in East Asia, undermine the region’s growth and economic interdependence, and cause serious political unrest, even insurgencies, in many Southeast Asian nations. In my new working paper, I examine the severe regression from democracy now happening in Southeast Asia, the implications of this trend for the region and the United States, and some possible solutions to this democratic reversal. The working paper is available here.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Attack in Xinjiang kills three and injures seventy-nine. A blast in the provincial capital of Urumqi, in China’s northwest province of Xinjiang, killed two bombers and a third bystander at a train station on Wednesday. According to Chinese state media, “knife-wielding mobs” attacked people at one of the station’s exits following the blasts. Chinese authorities claimed to have identified the assailants as Muslim religious extremists, fighting for independence from China. Urumqi is no stranger to violent ethnic strife and is a heavily policed city. The attacks follow similar incidents in the past year: in March, ten assailants, allegedly Uighur separatists, killed twenty-nine commuters at a train station in Kunming, Yunnan province; and in October 2013, three Uighurs drove a car through Tiananmen Square in Beijing, killing themselves and two tourists. Chinese president Xi Jinping has declared long-term stability in Xinjiang vital to national security and has made promoting “ethnic cohesion” one of his major initiatives in the region. 2. Brunei to adopt strict Islamic penal code. During a ceremony Wednesday morning, the sultan of Brunei, Hassanal Bolkiah, announced the commencement of the first phase of the country’s sharia-based penal code. Beginning this week, Brunei citizens can be fined or jailed by Islamic courts for offenses like not performing Friday prayers, pregnancy out of wedlock, propagating other religions, and indecent behavior. More severe punishments such as flogging, amputation of limbs, and death by stoning will be gradually introduced. The United Nations Commission on Human Rights, Amnesty International, and the Human Rights Campaign, in addition to a growing contingent of Hollywood celebrities, have denounced the law. Brunei’s decision, and the radical interpretation of Islam it supports, is of great concern to neighboring countries with significant Islamic minorities, including India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, and Indonesia. 3. Obama wraps up Asia tour, meets mixed reactions. President Barack Obama traveled to Southeast Asia early this week, after traveling to Japan and Korea last week (see last week’s Friday Asia Update for details on that trip). In Malaysia (which had not received a standing American president since Lyndon Johnson in 1966), Obama tried to court what has been called the “swing state” of Southeast Asia, treading lightly on issues such as human rights and ethnic strife in the newly democratized nation. In the Philippines, Obama signed a new ten-year defense agreement that gives U.S. troops access to some Filipino military bases, which has only underscored the ambiguity of U.S. military commitment in the region vis-à-vis China, though he was careful to emphasize that the U.S. goal is not to counter or contain China while in Manila. There has been tepid response from Beijing to the tour, seen in China as the “re-rebalance”; speaking to Obama indirectly, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Qin Gang said, “If you come, or if you don’t come, I am here.” 4. Indian elections near a close, with Modi expected to become next prime minister. Results for the world’s biggest election will be announced in two weeks. Several high-profile names were among the contestants in Wednesday’s polling—the seventh of nine phases—including the frontrunner Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) candidate for prime minister, Narendra Modi; Sonia Gandhi, the president of the ruling Congress party; and Rajnath Singh, the president of the BJP. All opinion polls point to a BJP-led government, but Narendra Modi remains a divisive figure. He is criticized for his failure to quell the 2002 riots in his home state, Gujarat, in which many Muslims were killed—although the courts have cleared him of any wrongdoing due to lack of evidence. Despite this stain, he is praised for his ability to streamline bureaucracy and attract investment in Gujarat. Also this week, John Oliver mocked Western television stations for ignoring the biggest election in human history. 5. Thailand’s election commission announces new date for vote. Thailand’s election authority stated that it will try to hold national elections for a second time on July 20. The results of February elections were nullified, and the country has been politically paralyzed since December. Many commentators believe a similar fate will befall the July elections, if they are held at all. The opposition Democrat Party has not decided whether it will participate—it boycotted the February elections, and anti-government protestors forced polling stations to close. In addition to these electoral and political challenges, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is facing several legal battles that could force her from power. Bonus: China’s “Big Ban Theory.” Chinese regulators this week ordered streaming video websites such as Sohu TV, iQiyi, and Youku to remove four popular U.S. television shows: “The Big Bang Theory,” “The Good Wife,” “NCIS,” and “The Practice.” No explanation was given for the move, which Time has affectionately called “the Big Ban Theory.” Many Chinese fans were surprised as to why these particular shows would be banned when other potentially more contentious shows—such as Netflix’s political drama “House of Cards,” which deals with thorny issues in the U.S.-China relationship, or HBO’s “Game of Thrones”—remain on the air. Not all hope is lost for Chinese fans: CCTV has bought the rights to show “The Big Bang Theory,” though initial reports suggest much of the content will be edited. Disgruntled fans shared a screenshot from an episode where the character Sheldon Cooper says, “I like China…they know how to keep people in line.”

Wenchi Yu is an Asia Society fellow, a Project 2049 Institute fellow, and a former U.S. Department of State official. She is the managing partner of the Banyan Advisory Group LLC, which focuses on social investment in Asia. Follow her on Twitter: @WenchiY. President Barack Obama just returned from Asia after an eight-day, four-country visit to the region. International media coverage carefully examined the Obama administration’s “pivot,” or “rebalancing,” to Asia through trade, military, and other security issues and the reaction of China to the president’s visit. But given the United States’ complex diplomatic relations with the region, it is the president’s people-to-people diplomacy in Southeast Asia that is most likely to result in long-term goodwill from the region. Despite growing trade relations between the United States and Southeast Asia, diplomatic relations are historically weak. A critical part of the Obama administration’s Asia policy is increasing engagement in Southeast Asia—a region with diverse ethnicities, languages, and cultures, as well as emerging economies, moderate Muslim-majority countries, and a political bloc, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with increasing influence in regional matters. While maintaining strong relationships with allies like Japan, Korea, and Australia remains a priority, Washington has the most to gain by investing time and resources in its partners in Southeast Asia. In this vein, a core U.S. strategy has been and should be people-to-people diplomacy using non-security issues such as innovation, technology, entrepreneurship, gender equality, youth, and development as tools for engagement. In Southeast Asia, people-to-people diplomacy has manifested itself in strategic initiatives such as the Global Entrepreneurship Summit, the Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative, the annual U.S.-ASEAN Business Summit, the Lower Mekong Initiative, and entrepreneurship and women-focused programs. The U.S. State Department underwent organizational changes to embed a senior (deputy assistant secretary) position in the regional bureau to carry out public diplomacy programs. Embassies and ambassadors are encouraged to use social media—popular in the region—to reach out to new and young audiences. For example, America’s popular ambassador to Thailand, Kristie Kenney, uses Twitter extensively to communicate with her nearly fifty-thousand followers. In Jakarta, the @america cultural center uses technology to engage young Indonesians with American culture and values. Most of these people-to-people efforts are welcomed by this region’s governments and societies because they speak directly to citizens, bring new opportunities, and bridge differences. To the United States, investing in and influencing open-minded, innovative, and moderate emerging leaders is an important long-term strategy. The goal is simple—win the hearts and minds of the people and future leaders. This strategy is working on the ground and American diplomats are doing it more. During Obama’s visit to Malaysia—the first American presidential visit in forty-eight years—he held a town hall event with five hundred Malaysian university students. He also held a business signing ceremony for major U.S.-Malaysia commercial deals and spoke with young entrepreneurs from Southeast Asia to discuss challenges facing their societies. When young social entrepreneurs, with U.S. support, are given the opportunity to present their own solutions to community problems, they are much more likely to develop a positive impression of the United States. Although these efforts do not replace important security and military cooperation, Obama’s message was clear—people-to-people engagement is an important part of U.S. policy in the region. Still, winning the hearts and minds of the people is not just about unquestioning support. As one young Malaysian woman remarked, "America used to stand for freedom of speech and democracy, pushing for more civil society space." But Obama’s historic visit to Kuala Lumpur—seen as a boost for Malaysia’s highly unpopular prime minister Najib Razak—was rather confusing to her. "Why would America stand by a leader who has so many issues at home? Is America compromising?" United States should not be afraid of speaking out when things are wrong—a core value of the United States. Those who question whether Obama is serious about his Asia policy need to look beyond traditional political and security issues. As former secretary of state Hillary Clinton has written, "engagement must go far beyond government-to-government interactions." Though not as controversial or provocative as the issues favored by the media, sustained, strategic investments in Southeast Asia’s business, society, and people are much more likely to yield long-term goodwill toward the United States. To increase American influence in Asia, a winning strategy must begin with the people.

After sustained pressure from human rights groups, democracy advocates in Congress, and some within the Obama administration who were worried (rightly) that Obama touting Malaysia as a model democracy might be slightly compromised by the pending sham charges against Malaysia’s opposition leader, now it appears that National Security Advisor Susan Rice will meet Anwar Ibrahim during the president’s visit to Malaysia this coming weekend. AFP and ChannelNewsAsia have a summary of the most recent news on Obama’s upcoming visit to Malaysia here. Although this means that Rice, the second-highest ranking American official on Obama’s trip, will meet with the Malaysian opposition leader, the decision, I think, will please no one in Malaysia. Although Anwar has taken a relatively low-key approach to the Obama visit, simply expressing displeasure that Obama would not meet with him, supporters of the People’s Justic Party (PKR), the opposition alliance, are furious that Obama had planned to come to Malaysia and barely even note the presence of a healthy opposition. Now, I doubt many PKR supporters will be mollified by the Rice meeting, which seems like such a last-minute addition, an afterthought to Obama’s agenda. Yet at the same time, Prime Minister Najib, who enjoys excellent personal ties with Obama himself, has pushed hard for the president not to recognize the Malaysian opposition at all. Now, Najib and his allies in Washington who argue that the prime minister’s feelings are so delicate that any recognition of the opposition would damage the U.S.-Malaysian strategic relationship, are likely to be angered by the Rice meeting—angered as much as they would have been if Obama himself met with Anwar or another opposition leader. Of course, if Malaysia is such a democratic model, then it should hardly matter to Najib whether a visiting leader meets with members of the loyal opposition, but that is precisely the point: Malaysia is hardly a democratic model. In any event, expect the Rice meeting to generate furious commentary from Najib’s proxies in Malaysia’s state media. So, in this case, Obama’s half-measures probably will earn him full discontent from all sides in Malaysia.

On April 27, President Obama will become the first sitting American president to visit Malaysia in five decades. This trip, which already had been postponed from the fall, has been complicated by the Malaysian government’s recent crackdown on opposition politicians, and by Kuala Lumpur’s inept handling of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 tragedy. However, Obama still plans to highlight the growing strategic and economic relationship between Malaysia and the United States, the relationship between himself and Prime Minister Najib tun Razak, and Malaysia’s supposed credentials as a moderate, Muslim-majority state and emerging democracy. But on his trip, the president should try to maintain a balanced focus, hitting the following points: 1. Give Malaysia its due. Malaysia has clearly been one of the success stories of human development in the post-World War II era. Perhaps it has been overshadowed by other tigers in Asia like neighboring Singapore, but Malaysia has certainly accomplished a great deal in just fifty-plus years of independence. Its economy is more diversified than many experts give it credit for, it has boosted GDP per capita to over $10,000 (and GDP per capita is much higher in urban areas like Kuala Lumpur), and it has built an efficient and modern physical infrastructure on peninsular Malaysia. The country suffers from challenges with graft, particularly in state-controlled companies, but no more so than neighbors like Thailand and Malaysia. President Obama should rightly celebrate this impressive development. 2. But look into Malaysia’s future. Malaysia’s future is not assured, however. The country has struggled to move into higher value-added industries, and its education system remains much weaker than those in Singapore and other, wealthier Asian countries. Prime Minister Najib, after a strong start, has mostly given up on many proposed economic reforms. Investors still like Malaysia for certain types of manufacturing, and the government offers many incentives for foreign investment, but in the long-term many foreign investors wonder what Malaysia’s competitive advantage will be. President Obama is not going to, by himself, convince Najib to pick up the mantle of reform again, but making the argument for reform would be welcome among American businesses investing in Southeast Asia. 3. Clearly recognize that Malaysia is a multi-ethnic country with many non-Muslims. Since last year’s parliamentary elections, in which the ruling coalition barely squeaked home (or, according to some analyses, stole the election), Prime Minister Najib has increasingly catered to hard-line and more conservative ethnic Malay voices in his coalition. The dismal showing of the coalition’s ethnic Chinese party further reduced the voice of non-Muslims and non-Malays in government. The past year has seen increasingly vitriolic rhetoric from government leaders and supporters against ethnic Chinese and non-Muslims in general, and many ethnic Chinese and Indians continue to take their capital out of Malaysia, or send their children abroad for school and, ultimately, to live. Prime Minister Najib’s plans to further boost economic preferences for Malays adds to this Chinese and Indian fear, and also distorts the economy. President Obama should clearly recognize that Malaysia is a multi-ethnic society, and should meet leaders of the Chinese and Indian communities, including those from opposition parties. 4. Avoid the “big man” problem. American administrations, whether Democratic or Republican, too often tend to associate reform with one supposedly groundbreaking leader in a developing nation, a supposedly democratic “big man.” In rare cases, such a leader exists, but more often than not a supposedly reform-minded “big man” requires many factors to go in his direction to successfully push his or her country toward democracy.  In the worst cases, “big man” leaders who initially look like reformers turn out, in power, to be as corrupt or autocratic as the men and women they replaced. Prime Minister Najib, to many American officials, is the “big man” who has shifted bilateral relations and supposedly is leading reforms. But the reality is more nuanced, to be sure. Prime Minister Najib has skillfully wooed the Obama administration and Washington in general, both through his own diplomacy and through a series of effective ambassadors in the United States. Yet Najib himself is not Malaysia. If the American president focuses only on Najib, he risks alienating an entire generation of young Malaysians, who mostly support the opposition and voted for the opposition last year. To avoid the “big man” trap, President Obama should meet not only with Najib but also with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, who was recently sentenced to five years in jail on highly dubious sodomy charges in a highly dubious (at best) trial. The president also could meet with leaders from Malaysia’s tough but embattled civil society. What’s more, publicly highlighting some of the serious flaws in Malaysia’s system does not mean that the United States and Malaysia cannot continue to build a strategic relationship, as some analysts seem to believe. The United States has achieved such a balance with many other countries in the region, and many Malaysian elites already expect the American president to take a position on human rights. 5. Avoid discussion of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. After a bad start to the search for the plane, Kuala Lumpur has become more cooperative and seems to have given all its resources for the hunt. Enough people (including me) have dumped enough on Malaysia’s government for its inept handling of Flight 370 during the first week of the search. It is a tragedy, and President Obama should stick to other issues during his visit.

During his upcoming late April trip to Asia, President Obama will visit two nations in Southeast Asia, Malaysia and the Philippines, in addition to stops in Northeast Asia. The White House already has been briefing reporters on the overall messaging of the trip, and the specific themes the president plans to hit in Malaysia and the Philippines. In Malaysia, it appears from several news reports and from speaking with several administration officials, President Obama will add to the Malaysian government’s self-promotion that Kuala Lumpur is a successful and democratic nation, an example of other Muslim-majority countries, and a force for moderation in the world. The president apparently plans to hit these themes despite the regional anger at Malaysia’s handling of the Malaysia Airlines vanished plane, which exposed to the world many of the problems with Malaysia’s governance. No matter, say some Southeast Asia experts. Some of Obama’s advisors, and many Southeast Asia experts, are urging the president to use the trip to cement a strategic partnership with Malaysia and establishing a roadmap for the kind of higher-level strategic cooperation that the United States already enjoys with Singapore and Thailand, among other countries in the region. This approach to the Malaysia visit would mean downplaying – or simply not even discussing – serious regression in Malaysia’s domestic politics, including the recent sentencing of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to five years in jail for sodomy, the highly flawed 2013 national elections that barely kept Prime Minister Najib tun Razak in office, and the increasingly shrill, anti-Chinese and anti-Indian rhetoric and legislation of the Najib government, hardly the kind of sentiments a supposed leader of political moderation should be espousing. According to this logic, if President Obama were to bring up such unpleasant issues as the Malaysian government’s crackdown on opponents over the past year or its unwillingness to reform pro-Malay policies that have entrenched a culture of graft and self-dealing at many Malaysian companies, that would sink the visit. Under Najib, Malaysia and the United States have, on a strategic level, moved beyond some of the acrimony of the Mahathir and Abdullah years, and have made progress on a wide range of military-military and diplomatic cooperation. Najib definitely deserves some credit for this rapprochement, though growing Malaysian fear about China’s South China Sea policies are probably the main driver behind closer strategic ties with Washington. But simply ignoring the disastrous Najib policies on human rights, political freedoms, and economic liberalization would not be a wise move by Obama. For one, it would play into the narrative that Obama cares little about rights and democracy promotion, a narrative that has gained significant force not only in Washington but also among many Southeast Asian activists and young people in general. And ignoring Malaysia’s opposition politicians, who won the popular vote in the 2013 national elections and enjoy their strongest support among young Malaysians, would be alienating the biggest growing pool of Malaysian voters. As in other countries in the region, like Cambodia and Indonesia, these young voters are increasingly favoring opposition parties or new figures like Jakarta governor Joko Widodo, breaking from long-ruling, autocratic parties. The United States should be cultivating these young voters who will prove critical to the region’s democratization. This new generation will eventually power the Malaysian opposition, in some form, to the prime minister’s office. It would be a shame if the United States president had ignored them, and their party leaders, before then.

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Obama holds trilateral talks with Japan and Korea. U.S. president Barack Obama led trilateral talks with the leaders of Japan and South Korea on Tuesday in hopes of improving the relationship between Seoul and Tokyo. It was the first time South Korean president Park Geun-hye and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe have met face-to-face as leaders. The meeting took place in The Hague on the side of the Nuclear Security Summit. Relations between Japan and South Korea have been strained recently; Tokyo has protested a Korean memorial to an activist who assassinated a Japanese colonial governor in Korea in 1909, while Korean officials are upset by Japan’s insufficient apologies for actions committed during its colonization of Korea and its use of Korean sex slaves during World War II. The talks were an attempt to set these issues aside while focusing on the common threat of North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs. 2. North Korea test-fires medium-range ballistic missiles. North Korea has been testing short-range missiles in recent weeks, but the March 26 test marks the first launch of the mid-range Rodong missile since 2009. The Rodong rockets can reach Japan, as well as U.S. bases there. Members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) met on Thursday in response to the launch, which they have since condemned as a violation of UN resolutions. The test not only followed the tripartite meeting of South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. leaders at the Nuclear Security Summit in the Hague, but also fell on the fourth anniversary of the sinking of the South Korean naval ship Cheonan, in which Pyongyang was implicated. 3. Japan’s ruling coalition agrees on new rules for arms exports. On Tuesday, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner New Komeito approved new guidelines for Japan’s arms exports policy, which could relax a decades-old self-imposed ban on weapons exports if the Cabinet approves it next week. Japan adopted the so-called “Three Principles on Arms Exports” in 1967, which banned the transfer of weapons to communist bloc countries, countries subject to arms exports embargo under UNSC resolutions, and countries involved in or likely to be involved in international conflicts. Under the draft rules, the government promised exports would be transparent and only allowed if they serve the purpose of contributing to international cooperation and Japan’s security interests—exports that violate UNSC resolutions or to countries involved in conflicts will still be banned. Despite these restrictions, Japan’s neighbors have expressed their concern that the new export rules mean that Japan is becoming more hawkish. 4. Malaysia flight officially declared to have crashed in Indian ocean. Malaysia’s prime minister Najib Razak announced that missing flight MH370 crashed in the southern Indian ocean, killing all 239 people on board. New radar analysis and satellite images of debris suggest that the flight may have run out of fuel sooner over the southern Indian ocean, shifting the search further north. Relatives of Chinese passengers have been oscillating between grief and visceral anger, demanding an independent Chinese inquiry, protesting outside the Malaysian embassy in Beijing, and walking out of briefings by Malaysian officials. While multilateral cooperation was instrumental in narrowing the search for the flight, events this week point to continued geopolitical rivalries. 5. China loses case on rare-earth metals in WTO. The World Trade Organization (WTO) ruled that China’s export restrictions on rare-earth metals violate global trade rules. The panel concluded that “China’s export quotas were designed to achieve industrial policy goals” and were not put in place to protect the environment, as Beijing claimed. The case was brought to the WTO two years ago by the United States, the European Union, and Japan. China produces more than 90 percent of rare-earth minerals, which are used in sensitive defense-related technology; China’s control of the global supply allows Beijing to artificially raise prices and create shortages. An official from China’s Ministry of Commerce said he “regrets” the ruling, and that China was assessing the panel report. Bonus: Male undergraduates in North Korea required to get Kim Jung-un haircut. North Korea is taking its list of state-sanctioned haircuts one step further in new rules that require all male undergraduates to sport the same ‘do as Kim Jung-un. Some North Koreans are less than thrilled, as the “Dear Leader” hairstyle bears too much resemblance to a “Chinese smuggler haircut.” Hardly shear madness, the North Korean regime believes the new hairstyle regulation upholds a 2005 campaign against long hair by allowing male citizens a chance to showcase their “socialist style.”

After canceling a trip to Southeast Asia last fall because of the U.S. government shutdown, President Obama is now planning to travel to the region in late April. (He will travel to Northeast Asia as well.) The president plans to visit Malaysia, where last year he had to skip a summit of entrepreneurs where he had promised to speak. The Washington Post recently had a piece summarizing the upcoming trip and noting that Obama will be the first sitting president to visit Malaysia in about fifty years. This is supposed to be a celebratory occasion. The Post piece does a fine job of explaining one reason why Obama’s trip is not going to be the smooth celebration of Malaysia-U.S. ties that the administration probably thought it would be. The presumed crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 exposed major weaknesses in Malaysian governance and angered many American officials after the Malaysian government seemed to refuse cooperation in the initial search. One senior U.S. official told the Post, “The overriding and dominant image and narrative of this trip is embracing Malaysia at a time in which it is stepping up and modernizing.” Really? But it’s not just the Flight 370 debacle that shows the fallacy of the Obama administration’s touting of the current Malaysian government. For one, there is the problem of the Malaysian government’s growing crackdown on dissent, highlighted by the recent sentencing of opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to jail for sodomy and fining of Karpal Singh, another prominent opposition figure, for sedition. Anwar has many friends in Washington – he spent time as a fellow at Johns Hopkins and is respected on Capitol Hill as a democrat – and the administration should expect those friends to push Obama to meet Anwar during his Malaysia visit and to highlight Anwar’s unjust trial and sentence. The Anwar and Singh cases are part of a broader pattern. Since winning–essentially, stealing–national elections last year, the government of Prime Minister Najib tun Razak has become more and more indebted to the hardest-line and most conservative elements in the ruling BN coalition. As a result, it has jettisoned many of the proposed economic reforms that Najib once promised and that won him plaudits from investors and the White House, among others. Instead, Najib has announced a new slate of policies designed to benefit primarily ethnic Malays, and which are likely to further entrench graft, self-dealing, and a lack of transparency in Malaysian companies. And Najib, engaged in a fight within his party with former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad and his acolytes, has upped the intense ethnic rhetoric, belying the claim – a claim repeated by Obama – that Najib is a moderate and tolerant figure. Meanwhile, the economic good news that Obama wanted to highlight in Malaysia is not apparent either. Besides scrapping plans to reform the system of benefits for Malays, Najib has basically halted efforts to reform Malaysia’s government-linked companies (i.e, state companies), since control of those companies proved important to getting out the vote for the ruling coalition in last year’s election. The system of benefits for ethnic Malays, the state companies, and the entrenched cronyism, make Malaysia still a very difficult environment for entrepreneurs, which is ironic since Obama previously wanted to come to Malaysia to tout entrepreneurship in the country. And then there is the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, of which Najib previously was a major supporter. The TPP is not particularly popular among Malaysians, and is not popular among the more conservative parts of Najib’s ruling coalition; Mahathir is publicly calling for the Malaysian government to drop TPP entirely. Najib himself has been backtracking on his previous pro-TPP rhetoric. TPP is still far from being wrapped up, and has many outstanding issues unrelated to Malaysia, including a lack of support for TPP in the U.S. Congress as well. But the changing political climate in Malaysia, and the increasingly tepid support for the agreement in the ruling coalition, is not helping pass the deal. Obama will not be able to tout TPP in Kuala Lumpur either. So, what exactly is Obama going to say in Malaysia about this government that is supposedly “stepping up and modernizing,” at least according to the White House? That it has yet to throw all of the political opposition in jail? That it has not completely crushed the idea of real economic reform? That it is trying to keep Malaysia’s notorious outflow of young talent from leaving as quickly for Australia and Singapore? That it can handle a major international crisis? Hmmm…I do not envy Obama’s foreign policy speechwriter.

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Michelle Obama visits China. U.S. first lady Michelle Obama arrived in Beijing on Thursday and will spend six days in China. Accompanied by her mother and two daughters, Obama toured Beijing with Peng Liyuan, wife of Chinese president Xi Jinping. Obama will stay away from politicized topics such as human rights, and instead promote cultural and educational exchanges, particularly for young people. Currently, the number of Chinese studying in the United States outnumber Americans studying in China by at least ten to one. The Obama administration must certainly hope that the first lady’s efforts in the Middle Kingdom are as successful as her “Let’s Move” campaign to inspire American youth to exercise more. 2. Japan and North Korea agree to restart formal talks. On Thursday, Japanese and North Korean officials agreed in a meeting in Shenyang, China, to restart stalled bilateral talks between the two countries on a wide variety of issues including North Korea’s weapons program as well as the past abduction of Japanese citizens by Pyongyang. The two countries’ Red Cross societies also met to discuss the abduction issue, a sticking point in bilateral discussions for decades. Formal talks between Tokyo and Pyongyang ended in December 2012 after North Korea tested  a long-range missile over Japan. 3. Court annuls Thailand’s February election. The country’s Constitutional Court voided last month’s general election on Friday, a decision that will only deepen Thailand’s political crisis. Thailand’s prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra called the February 2 elections after months of demonstrations against her government; in turn, protestors prevented prospective officeholders from registering and voters from registering and casting ballots. Because of the protests, voting could not be conducted on the same day across the country, as Thailand’s constitution demands. The court’s ruling puts further pressure on the embattled Shinawatra administration, which now rules without a full government and with Yingluck facing impeachment over a failed rice subsidy scheme. The court’s secretary-general stated that a new general election must be held, though there is no indication as to when this might happen. 4. The search for Malaysia Airlines flight 370 continues, now off the coast of Australia. Satellite imagery detected a pair of floating objects off the southwest coast of Australia that could be from the Malaysian Airlines flight that disappeared on March 8, but the debris has not yet been recovered. Malaysian police have also focused their search on the plan’s pilot; they found that information was deleted from the flight simulator he used in his home and called in the U.S. FBI to help in the investigation. So far there is no evidence that links the pilot or copilot to any terrorist groups or any evidence of suicidal tendencies. Malaysian and U.S. officials believe that the plane was deliberately diverted off course, but still cannot explain why or to where. Several countries, especially China, have criticized Malaysia’s handling of the investigation, claiming it should be more willing to share intelligence. Chinese relatives of missing passengers protested at a media conference on Wednesday, demanding more information and threatening a hunger strike. 5. Sri Lanka arrests human rights activists under anti-terrorism law. Three prominent human rights activists were arrested in Colombo on “charges of creating communal disharmony and inciting racial hatred.” Ruki Fernando, Reverend Praveen Mahesan, and Jeyakumari Balendran were released after a forty-eight hour detention in the Terrorist Investigation Division under court orders prohibiting them from speaking to the media. The arrests occurred days before a crucial UN Human Rights Council vote on a possible investigation into war crimes committed during the Sri Lankan civil war. Bonus: “Smog insurance” for sale in China. China’s Ping An Insurance Group announced a new insurance plan this week. By paying a premium of 100 yuan, or $16, purchasers of the insurance in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Xi’an, Harbin, and Chengdu can now insure themselves against air pollution. According to a report from Xinhua, those insured will receive medical examinations when the air quality index (AQI) hits more than 300 for five consecutive days and $240 in compensation if they are hospitalized by smog. As Beijing begins its “war on pollution,” the insurance product represents an attempt to profit off the country’s dirty skies.

The Malaysian government probably has done more over the past week to undermine the international image of Malaysia than anyone else in the country’s nearly sixty years as an independent nation. Of course, for most of those six decades until the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 the country received little international attention. If Malaysia made the news at all, it tended to get a relatively favorable image as a peaceful and multi-ethnic nation that had witnessed some of the strongest economic growth in Asia. The ten-day period since the mysterious disappearance of Flight 370 has seen the Malaysian government present to the world a concoction of false leads and conflicting answers alongside seemingly evasive behaviors. It took nearly a week after the start of a multinational search off the waters off Malaysia’s east coast before the government revealed that it had data suggesting the plane had actually flown in the other direction. Malaysia also has released conflicting stories of when the plane’s communication with the ground was turned off, and who turned it off, and it also has released unclear information of who might be a suspect in the plane’s demise and what evidence has been collected regarding potential suspects. Can Malaysia turn it around, regaining the trust of neighboring states, the international community, aviation experts, and, most importantly, the relatives of passengers from the missing flight? It’s not impossible, and restoring trust will be critical for the multinational search effort to be successful. Kuala Lumpur needs to immediately—and I mean, immediately—take several steps. To read more on what Malaysia needs to do to salvage its image, go to my new piece at Bloomberg Businessweek.

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Missing Malaysia Airlines flight leaves the fate of 239 passengers shrouded in mystery. Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing disappeared Saturday, and its fate has still not been determined nearly a week after it vanished from radar screens. The most recent information indicates that the plane was deliberately flown off course, making a sharp left and flying hundreds of miles toward India’s remote Andaman and Nicobar islands. India has now joined twelve other countries and more than one hundred ships and aircraft in the search mission, which has extended into the Indian ocean. While no cause has been ruled out for the disappearance, officials are increasingly suspecting foul play, possibly by crew or passengers with aviation experience. The search has been plagued by false leads and contradictory reports: an oil slick found in the Gulf of Thailand was dismissed as unrelated; debris spotted by Vietnam turned out to be trash or wood; and the search radius has been repeatedly expanded. Chinese officials have expressed frustration with Malaysia’s lack of transparency throughout the investigation; two-thirds of the passengers on the flight were Chinese nationals. The fact that two passengers were able to board the flight on fake passports has also exposed serious security gaps in Kuala Lumpur’s airport and focused attention on the black market for stolen passports in Southeast Asia. The passengers with fake passports do not seem to have terrorist ties and are likely Iranian nationals attempting to flee to Europe. 2. Chinese exports unexpectedly low. Chinese exports unexpectedly declined 18.1 percent in February from last year, the biggest drop since the global financial crisis. According to China’s General Administration of Customs in Beijing, the sudden decline left a trade deficit of $22.98 billion for the month. The drop in exports reverberated globally, taking a toll on commodity prices and stock markets. At the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang encouraged the 7.5 percent annual GDP growth target to remain flexible as “severe challenges” lie ahead for the Chinese economy. 3. Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of preventing delivery of supplies in Ayungin Shoal. Manila has lodged a protest with China after two civilian supply vessels attempting to resupply sailors in the Ayungin Shoal (known as Ren’ai in China) were obstructed by a Chinese coastguard vessel. The Philippines claims the shoal is part of its continental shelf, while China claims much of the South China Sea, including the shoal, for itself. Supplies were later airdropped to the sailors, who occupy a military hospital ship that was intentionally grounded in 1999. The Chinese foreign ministry asserted that the supply vessels in fact carried construction materials to reinforce the Filipino presence on the shoal. 4. North Korea uses front companies, embassies to conduct illegal arms trade, UN report finds. The United Nations Panel of Experts on North Korea found that North Korea continues to trade prohibited goods, including weapons and materials used in nuclear weapons development. The report alleges that front companies and possibly even the North Korean missions to Cuba and Singapore may be involved in the illegal trade activity. The report also refers to foreign suppliers for North Korea’s missile program, and a rocket test-fired into sea in December 2012 was found to contain parts from China, the United States, the former Soviet Union, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland. The UN Security Council voted on March 5, 2014, to extend the mandate of the panel of experts by thirteen months, through April 2015. 5. Abe announces Japanese support for the United States in Ukraine crisis. On March 7, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe promised U.S. president Barack Obama that Tokyo would back U.S. efforts to address the Ukraine crisis, including economic sanctions against Russia. Japan’s foreign minister Fumio Kishida said the same day that Japan would also consider giving financial assistance to Ukraine through the International Monetary Fund. The announcements marked a shift in policy, as Tokyo was initially hesitant to back sanctions because of its dependence on Russia for energy imports. Japan also postponed a visit set for this week by Russia’s military chief Valeriy Gerasimov, who was to discuss defense exchanges with Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera. Meanwhile, Shotaro Yachi, head of Japan’s new National Security Council, traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and explained Tokyo’s desire to see a peaceful end to the crisis and respect for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Bonus: North Korea reelects Kim Jong-un with 100 percent of votes. North Korean state media reported that 100 percent of all registered voters went to the polls for this week’s legislative elections. In a country where voting is mandatory and there is only one yes/no option on the ballot consisting of a single candidate, 100 percent of the voters chose to re-elect Kim Jong-un to the country’s parliament. Citizens celebrated this “single-minded solidarity” for Mr. Kim with singing, dancing, and poetry; Kim Jong-un celebrated with his sister, in her first official appearance. These quinquennial elections allow the North Korean state to keep tabs on its population and bolster Kim Jong-un’s right to rule.

With an international team of investigators still seemingly baffled about what happened to Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, which disappeared over the weekend, relatives of the passengers and diplomats from countries touched by the mishap have vented their frustration with the Malaysian government. For days, it seems, Malaysian officials and the state-owned carrier have released almost no information about the flight or working theories of why it vanished. Malaysia Airlines did not even inform relatives for fifteen hours that the plane had disappeared, sending the distraught families to a hotel in Beijing to wait, and Kuala Lumpur’s envoys still have mostly kept the relatives in the dark days later. Over one hundred friends and relatives of the vanished passengers signed a petition on Monday calling on the Malaysian government to be more transparent and to answer the relatives’ questions. Several of the relatives threw bottles at Malaysia Airlines employees who came to speak with them in Beijing, where the missing plane had been headed, but mostly the officials maintained their tight-lipped approach. The frustration felt by families of the missing is understandable and reasonable, but no one should have expected much better from the Malaysian government. Although theoretically a democracy with regular, contested elections, Malaysia has been ruled since independence by the same governing coalition, one that has become known for its lack of transparency and disinterest—even outright hostility—to the press and inquiring citizens. For a relatively wealthy country, Malaysia is also unusually prone to corruption. Since the 9/11 attacks and the revelation that al-Qaeda members had convened planning meetings in Malaysia, the government has become intensely controlling of any information about potential terror threats, while maintaining a relatively liberal visa policy for arrivals. For more on why Malaysia’s secrecy about the plane is hardly surprising, read my new piece at Bloomberg Businessweek.

Sharone Tobias and Will Piekos look at the top five stories in Asia this week. 1. Five die in suspected terrorist attack in Tiananmen Square, Chinese authorities blame Uighur separatists. An SUV drove through Tiananmen Square on Monday, killing three people in the car and two bystanders, and wounding forty-two. Meng Jianzhu, China’s domestic security chief, said that the Uighur East Turkestan Islamic Movement was behind the attack. Beijing police have arrested eight suspects, seven of whom had Uighur names, according to witnesses of the arrest. Security has intensified in Beijing and the Muslim province of Xinjiang, where the suspects are believed to be from. Xinjiang has been struck with sporadic violent incidents, with many Uighurs claiming that their culture and religion are being suppressed, and some calling for independence from China. 2. Australia said to be a partner in NSA’s spying efforts. According to a new document leaked by former NSA contract Edward Snowden, Australia has used its embassies in Asia to collect intelligence as part of NSA surveillance efforts. The embassies included Jakarta, Hanoi, Beijing, Bangkok, and Kuala Lumpur. Australian ambassador to Indonesia Greg Moriarty was summoned to the Indonesian foreign ministry on Friday to discuss the spying. The Chinese Foreign Ministry reacted angrily and demanded that “foreign entities and personnel in China strictly abide by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.” Australia, along with the United States, Britain, Canada and New Zealand, is one of the Five Eyes countries that share highly classified intelligence. 3. China schedules key economic reform meeting. China’s leadership will meet from November 9 to November 12 for the third plenum meeting of the Eighteenth Communist Party Central Committee, at which Beijing will look to set its economic agenda for the next ten years. State media has already reported that Yu Zhengsheng, the fourth-ranked member of the Politburo Standing Committee, has promised “unprecedented,” “deep,” and “comprehensive” reforms. China’s rate of economic growth has slowed over the past few years, and many inside and outside the world’s second-largest economy are calling for a new growth strategy less dependent on exports and investment and more reliant on consumption. Analysts are predicting a range of possible reforms, including reigning in local government spending, bolstering the private sector, and rural land rights reform. 4. North Korea returns six South Korea detainees. The six men, all held on charges of illegal entry, were handed over to South Korea authorities in a goodwill gesture that some think could help ease tensions of the Korean Peninsula. The move can as something of a surprise; last month, Pyongyang cancelled reunions of families separated by the Korean War. The North could possibly be seeking an agreement with the South to restart talks on a tourist visits by South Koreans, as well as signaling to the United States that they are willing to take a similar step to release long-imprisoned American Kenneth Bae. 5. Easy to do business in Singapore, not so much in Myanmar. The World Bank released its annual report on the ease of doing business this week, with Singapore topping the global list for the eighth straight year. Burma, despite significant economic and political reforms, came in 182nd, the lowest ranking for any Asian country. Malaysia made it into the top ten for the first time, ranking sixth. The rest of the region pulled a decidedly mixed bag. China climbed three spots to ninety-sixth, but was leapfrogged by Russia, which now stands as the leading BRIC nation on the list. Bonus: Malaysian authorities pull Ke$ha show, threaten jail. Malaysian authorities pulled a performance by American singer Ke$ha this week, and the singer claimed that she was threatened with imprisonment if she did play, according to her Twitter account.

In the four months that have elapsed since Malaysia’s national elections in May, Prime Minister Najib tun Razak frequently has offered two conflicting public messages. To the party faithful in United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), which now utterly dominates the ruling coalition, Najib—a relative moderate by temperament—has offered hunks of red meat, proposing new legislation that would further entrench economic and political preferences for ethnic Malays. Some allies of the government now have proposed classifying all Muslim indigenous people in the country as ethnic Malays, according to a report in Asia Sentinel; doing so would make even more people in Malaysia eligible for Malays’ economic preferences, though it likely would also further undermine economic growth and drive Chinese and Indian businesspeople out of the country. In the short term, the red meat approach has been relatively successful for Najib, whose coalition won more parliamentary seats in the May elections than the opposition but actually lost the popular vote, and without gerrymandering and alleged fraud likely would have won less seats than the opposition too; the increasingly pro-Malay agenda has prevented hard-line politicians from challenging Najib and his allies at recent internal UMNO elections. Yet at the same time, Najib has continued to present himself to educated, urban Malaysians and to the outside world as a moderate and an advocate for inter-faith dialogue and Islamic modernity. He has done so not only at home but also around the world, such as in a series of speeches during the recent United Nations General Assembly, including at a recent meeting at CFR. But this past week, I think, Najib’s two messages became impossibly contradictory. The Malaysian government, clearly rattled by its showing in the May elections, has essentially reinstated the long-hated Internal Security Act, a colonial-era law that independent Malaysian governments had retained after the end of British rule over Malaya in order to crack down on dissent. The law allowed Malaysia’s government to detain people without trial indefinitely, often on vague charges. Scrapping the ISA was one of Najib’s major promises as prime minister, and indeed before this year’s elections the government had gotten rid of the ISA, or at least so it seemed. Yet this week the prime minister and his top deputy, along with their allies in parliament, passed new amendments to Malaysia’s Prevention of Crime Act; these new amendments will once again allow the government to detain Malaysians without trial. So, perhaps Malaysia’s leaders now can give up their double identity.