Asia

India

  • India
    India Needs a Second Green Revolution
    Arjun Reddy is an intern with the international economics program at the Council on Foreign Relations.  In the 1960s and 70s, India—and much of the developing world outside of sub-Saharan Africa—underwent an agriculture transformation called the Green Revolution. The development of high yield varieties of maize, wheat, and rice combined with the introduction of chemical fertilizer, expansion of irrigation infrastructures, and use of modern management techniques led to an explosion in agricultural productivity, arguably saving a billion lives. Today, the agricultural industry only contributes 15 percent of India’s GDP. Other sectors, especially services, have made up much of the growth in the Indian economy over the last few decades. The agricultural industry remains so important in India because it employs around 44 percent of India's working population, forming, by far, the largest industry in terms of employment. In 2018, farmers around the country protested the low food prices, export curbs, and anti-inflation policies that were devastating their livelihoods. Waves of farmer suicides also drew attention to mounting agrarian distress. The inefficiencies of farms in India is well documented, but the ways that farmers go to market also presents opportunities for improvement. The government’s original solution for farmers to move their produce down the supply chain was through selling to ‘mandis’—a Hindi word for market. In most states, mandis were created after various states wrote their own Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) acts. These acts created physical marketplaces where farmers (or private actors who purchased from farmers) could bring their produce to sell to licensed agents. These agents were supposed to be paid on commission by bringing goods to auction for traders in the mandi who, in turn, eventually sold to distributors. In practice, however, traders at these mandis notoriously employ methods to cheat farmers, through means such as rigged weighing machines, poor auction transparency, and unauthorized charges. Agents also often act as creditors and purchase crops at low prices from farmers as a form of repayment, thereby skirting the regulations. This, combined with high input costs, often trap farmers in debt spirals, with farmer debt-to-asset ratios increasing 23 percent between 1992 and 2013. Mandis also have poor storage infrastructure and high participation fees representing costs passed on to both farmers and end consumers. Due to weak government oversight, mandis—which were set up to help farmers—instead often act as a cartel-like monopsonists, extracting profits from farmers and consumers alike. Beginning in the early 2000s, these abuses led many states to attempt to reform the mandi system. The nature and efficacy of the reforms have varied widely, and have included allowing private mandis, bulk purchases, and contract farming. For example, short-term success was seen with PepsiCo setting up pre-agreed contract prices and access to drip irrigation techniques, access to land management experts, and financial tools for potato farmers. The farmers made less risky money and became more efficient; Pepsi received cheap potatoes for its Lay’s brand chips. However, this arrangement eventually soured when PepsiCo sued farmers in Gujarat over the non-sanctioned use of patented potatoes. Though these reforms did not solve the underlying problems farmers face, they represented a step in the right direction. In India, the average farm is less than three acres (versus a U.S. average of 442), and farmers are often unable to negotiate properly due to their fractured organization. Amongst a slew of possible solutions—such as deregulating ownership laws to facilitate consolidation or intensely investing in agricultural infrastructure—there is one model that has already had great success in India: the co-operative. For instance, the dairy industry is led by large brands like Amul and Nandini, consortiums of dairy farmers developed during the “White Revolution” in the 1940s. These co-operatives originally functioned with farmers providing milk at collection points where they are issued a receipt. The co-op can then sell to traders, vendors, or directly to consumers. Expenses like salary, transportation, storage, and marketing are paid out of revenues, with the profit being paid back to farmers proportionally to the milk they contribute, accounting for 80 to 82 percent of revenue at Amul, Gujarat’s co-operative. The access to information and negotiating power that comes from consolidation allows farmers to make more from each ounce of milk they produce. Co-operatives can negotiate directly with large purchasers of produce, or at least shorten the supply chain, thereby cutting out many layers of inefficient bureaucracy that currently plague the mandi system. For the dairy industry, this system increased both the dairy supply and farmer salaries. Such pooling also helps farmers better utilize financial tools critical to the industry. Access to credit and insurance for India’s farmers is incredibly difficult. Banks—many of which are state-owned in India—are difficult for farmers to borrow from as they have strict risk requirements and face recurring government loan waivers that hurt their balance sheet. Instead, the vast majority of farmers receive credit from private sources with very high interest rates and collateral demands. A system that does away with the same information and negotiating power disparities by operating through a co-op allows financial institutions to diversify their risk to an extent, and in time might even allow it to be done in-house. Co-operatives can also help farmers access modern agricultural technologies, lower input costs, and better management techniques. India’s success in the White Revolution resulted in an increase in dairy output, lower prices, and increased profit for farmers. India is a country where both farmers and consumers suffer. High prices, food waste, and widespread malnourishment have held back the country’s development. By cutting out a corrupted system of middlemen and traders, co-operatives might be able to feed India’s growing population and ensure that farmers don’t get caught in debt traps.
  • Women and Women's Rights
    Five Questions on Women-Led Sustainable Development: Meagan Fallone
    The Five Questions Series is a forum for scholars, government officials, civil society leaders, and foreign policy practitioners to provide timely analysis of new developments related to the advancement of women and girls worldwide. In this interview Megan Fallone, the director of Barefoot College International, highlights how the Solar Mamas' initiative has empowered women and poor communities around the world.
  • Women and Women's Rights
    Women This Week: Electoral Gains Across the Globe
    Welcome to “Women Around the World: This Week,” a series that highlights noteworthy news related to women and U.S. foreign policy. This week’s post, covering May 18 to May 28, was compiled by Rebecca Hughes, Alexandra Bro, and Rebecca Turkington.
  • India
    Ethnic and Caste Politics, Hindu Nationalism, and the Indian Elections
    General elections for India’s lower house of parliament began on April 11 and will last through May 19, with all ballots counted on May 23. This is the world’s largest democratic exercise. I had the chance to ask Dr. Kanchan Chandra, professor of politics at New York University, about ethnic politics, caste, and Hindu nationalism. Our exchange, the fourth of a series of Q & As on the Indian elections, appears below. The first is here, the second here, and the third here. You have done pioneering work on ethnic and caste politics in India. How do you see caste and ethnicity evolving as a feature of Indian politics? This election is distinguished by an effort by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to construct a political majority out of India’s Hindu demographic majority, and an effort by other parties to prevent this from happening. Hindus in India are a very diverse lot. They consist of many castes, languages, regions, and tribes. The same goes for members of other religious categories but I will focus on Hindus in this answer. In principle, this election could go two ways. The mobilization of caste, linguistic, regional, and tribal identities might cut across religious identities and prevent the consolidation of the Hindu majority. Or, the BJP may be able to homogenize caste, linguistic, regional, and tribal identities in service of a larger Hindu majority. I think the first scenario is more likely. In November, you wrote an essay for Foreign Affairs that examined “The Triumph of Hindu Majoritarianism” in Indian politics, noting that the shift away from Nehru’s idea of secularism began back in the 1980s. Can you explain for a general reader what a more moderate approach to religion in public life might look like, one that in your words “offers equal respect not only to India’s non-Hindu minorities but also to the many different ways of being Hindu”? Unlike Catholicism, which has a Church and a Pope, Hinduism is a religion of many traditions, many books, and many religious institutions. There is no single book, church, priest, or institution that defines it. A state could offer equal respect to all of these traditions (Hindu as well as non-Hindu) by following a highly differentiated policy toward religion that recognizes all these traditions. Such a state would do away with the notion of majority and minority altogether by recognizing a multiplicity of traditions. It would also be equidistant from, rather than neutral toward, all religious traditions. The version of India as a secular state as laid down in its Constitution approximates the ideal of equidistance but could do more to recognize the diversity within Hinduism. This kind of state is now unlikely in India. What is happening in India now is a change both in the form of the state and in the form of religion itself. Hinduism itself is undergoing a transformation from a religion of many traditions to a religion that is becoming evangelized and approaching the idea of a single great tradition. And the state is beginning to recognize and institutionalize this homogenized, evangelized form of Hinduism. The politics of Hindu nationalism, coupled with the liberalization of the economy and the creation of a nationwide media, has a lot to do with that. India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, is the size of a large country, with its 200 million people. You have focused closely on the politics of this state. What will you be watching in the coming weeks? Uttar Pradesh is the classic case of the politics of caste and ethnicity cross-cutting the politics of religion. The BJP is defending its position in this state by focusing on religious mobilization. The two main opposition parties – the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) – are attempting to neutralize this trend toward religious mobilization by emphasizing the distinct interests of subordinate caste groups and religious minorities. I will be watching for the number of seats each combination takes away, which could also have a major impact on who forms the government at the center. What will you be watching most closely at the national level during India’s 2019 general election? I have been paying close attention to the way in which most political parties have begun to capitalize on the politics of religion. The BJP is trying to mobilize a Hindu majority by activating fear (of terrorism, of Pakistan, of instability). The Congress is trying to mobilize a Hindu majority in a different way, by emphasizing the religiosity of its leaders and their commitment to Hindu values. No matter who wins, this will change the relationship between India’s Hindu majority and the government, and therefore the nature of India as a secular state. I will be watching to see how this plays out. My book about India’s rise on the world stage, Our Time Has Come: How India Is Making Its Place in the World, was published by Oxford University Press in January 2018. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa. Or like me on Facebook (fb.me/ayresalyssa) or Instagram (instagr.am/ayresalyssa).
  • India
    India in the World, With Sunjoy Joshi
    Podcast
    Sunjoy Joshi, chairman and chief executive of the Observer Research Foundation, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss India’s place in the world.
  • Democracy
    The Future of Democracy Around the World
    Play
    AYRES: Good morning. Good morning. It’s great to see so many people here today. I understand we have a full house. That’s terrific. We have what I am certain is going to be an excellent discussion for you this morning on the topic of the Future of Democracy Around the World. So welcome to this morning’s meeting, part of the 2019 Conference on Diversity in International Affairs. My name is Alyssa Ayres. I’m senior fellow here at the Council on Foreign Relations. And my focus is India, Pakistan, and South Asia. I will be presiding over this discussion. Now, you all know the drill. You’ve got the bios of our panelists in your speaker packets. I’d like to ask you to take a look at their bios, because we have three extremely impressive diplomats here. And normally I’m not supposed to go into detail about people’s bios, but I really want to emphasize we’ve got an extraordinary depth of expertise. So I want to make sure that you’re all aware of who is speaking with us this morning. At the very far right we have Ambassador Jendayi Frazer. She has held very senior positions in Africa foreign policy, senior director for African affairs on the NSC, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, ambassador to South Africa, extremely experienced. We have Julissa Reynoso, who is extremely experienced, former ambassador to Uruguay, former deputy assistant deputy secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs, deeply involved in politics as well, as your bio notes. We’re happy you’re able to join us. We also have Uzra Zeya. Uzra and I worked together at the State Department, so I’m very happy that she’s able to join us today . Uzra was a career foreign service officer. She has served all over the world. She also served for more than a year as the acting assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights, and labor. She’ll be able to tell you about that experience. And she’s now chief executive officer and president of the Alliance for Peacebuilding. So I have gone on a little bit longer than I normally would on the bios front, but please make sure that you read about the backgrounds of these very talented women, so you’ll understand exactly what depth of expertise they’re bringing to our conversation today. So let me start things off by asking Jendayi, we had a conversation yesterday to talk about sort of commonalities and where we think this conversation on the future of democracy in the world should go. I’m going to ask each of our panelists just a little bit about the state of the field as they see it in the regions they cover or thematically around the world. So, Jendayi, tell us from your perspective what you think the state of democracy is, from the part of the world that you focus on. FRAZER: Sure. Thank you. Thank you very much. And good morning to all of you. It’s a great pleasure to be here and also to participate in this forum of really quite exceptional women. Normally when I’m in Africa, I’m on a panel like this and it’s one woman and, you know, five or six men. So it’s great to be here with unanimous, you know, representation of women in foreign policy. So specifically on the question of the state of the field in Africa, of course it’s difficult to generalize because the continent is so diverse, with 54 different countries, you know, and so many different societies, ethnic groups, you know, languages, et cetera. But I think that we can find some broad trends. And so what I would say is normatively democracy is still—has hegemonic aspirations and hegemonic acceptance across the continent. This is seen from the point of view of the African Union which has its charter on democracy, human rights, that has been basically brought into force in 2012, as adopted in 2007. And it’s also seen not only in terms of that continental institution, but I think you can also see it on the street. African—the population median age is about nineteen years old. Very young people. It’s a continent with majority young people. The average of African presidents is about sixty-two. So there’s a big diversity there. And you can see that there’s an active participation of young people pushing for accountability of their governments. This is demonstrated, of course, in North African by what I call the North African spring. I don’t know why people call it the Arab Spring, since it started in Tunisia, you know, Egypt, Libya. Now you see Algeria and Sudan also falling—regimes—long-standing regimes falling to the demands of civil society and young people in the street. You also see it from the perspective of southern Africa, where you had not really the street but the party almost having a coup d’état against long-running regimes like that of Robert Mugabe. And even some accountability, from the party, again, in South Africa against Jacob Zuma. And so when we look at the trends in Africa, it’s really—I would say that there’s still a prevailing aspiration for democracy. The practice, however, is very different. You’ve had pushback against constitutional democracy in the form of term limits. You know, the changes to term limits—about ten or so countries in recent times, in 2000, have changed their term limits to either get rid of them or to extend them. At the same time, there’s about eight or nine countries that have rejected efforts to change term limits and have actually kept their constitutional order as it is, mainly two-term limits. I’ll conclude by just saying if you look at the broad trends of the democracy in Africa, in the 1960s, after independence, you really had basically two systems which were adopted. One was multiparty democracy, following sort of the Western liberal model. And then one-party socialist states, with the view there being that African countries were so diverse and they needed unity coming out of independence. And so they would have more of a socialist one party—not authoritarian necessary but finding democracy within the one party. That was the nature of the debate coming out of the independence period. Of course, it also reflected the East-West dynamic from the end of the Cold War. Then if you go into the ’70s, when the economy started to fall you had a rejection, almost, of democracy in the form of attempted coup d’états or successful coup d’état leading to military rule. That trend of the ‘70s, and authoritarian regimes—one-party authoritarian regimes. That trend shifted in the ’80s, particularly at the end of the ’80s with the end of the Cold War, and you had a return, again, to participatory multiparty democracy. Not a perfect democracy, because many of these elections are contested, some of them are very flawed, but nevertheless there’s a degree of competitive electoral politics there, and participation from civil society. So the ’80s, you get back to a dominant model of multiparty democracy, into the ’90s—really the end of the ’80s-’90s. And then in 2000 you continue to have, as I said, this normative hegemony that democracy—a multiparty democracy is preferred by society and accepted by political leadership. But the threats to that have been the term limit question. And now, into the end of the 2000s—so, you know, going into the next decade, 2020s, you have the China debate around whether—in fact, if you want to have fast economic growth, you need longer terms. These four- and five-year terms of competitive democracy disrupt economic growth and development. And so maybe China’s model of a one-party state with twenty-five-year terms, et cetera, looks more attractive. And so that, I think, the nature of the debate right now. And of course, with China’s push into Africa, economic push into Africa, strong economic push, that model becomes more of a debate. But if you actually look at political polling done by Afrobarometer, you’ll see that the majority of African citizens still prefer a U.S. model of development to the Chinese model of development. That’s—that poll was done in about 2017. But the trend is definitely another approach to governance being—and development—being that of China. AYRES: Thank you. Julissa, how does the state of the field look from a Latin American perspective? REYNOSO: So in the case of Latin America, you have several factors at play in terms of democracy, and human rights, and stability generally. For the most part, most countries—again, they’re diverse—it’s a diverse region. But the Caribbean is in that mix as well. Most countries have had stable institutional democratic processes over the last several decades. You have exceptions to that, right? So you have the case of Venezuela, that’s a recent—a relatively recent phenomena of deterioration and kind of parallel governments. And what that may look like is still a work in progress and very much active. You have the case of Nicaragua, where there has been essentially manipulation of the constitution for purposes of having one president reelected again and again, with a very weak opposition. And the most prominent one, the case of Cuba, which has been in place for many decades. And there has been, however, not every strong, authoritarian government is consistently that way. There are nuances. And in the case of Cuba you did have a change in leadership over the last couple of years. And obviously the death of Fidel Castro generated certain movement within the party. So you do still have the Communist Party very much running the place. And rules that are extremely regimented and with very little freedom for public debate. And then you have other places where you do have manipulation of the constitution and questionable election processes. Places like Haiti, which is—which is constantly—a place like Haiti is constantly—you know, you never know what’s going to happen one minute to the next. You might see some stability over a year or two, but then something breaks and there is chaos, and then you have instability from within the government or an attempt of manipulating the voting, et cetera. The Dominican Republic, the neighbor, where I’m originally from, not necessarily in the news because of that but definitely a place where the constitution has been changed over the last decade several times for the convenience of the ruling party, and reelection, reelection, reelection. So there is—there are nuances. You have the extreme cases, more historic and more sort of publicly known. And in the press—in the press here in the United States, again, I argue, significantly because of the domestic—the U.S. domestic component that is very much relevant when you talk about Latin America, probably more than any other part of the world. When you talk about Latin America you talk about people who also live here, right? And people who have family here, or residence, or have deep connections and send money there, and have businesses there, et cetera. You don’t have that fluidity of borders and transnational relationship like you might have with other parts of the world. So in the case of Cuba, you know, Venezuela, even Nicaragua, you have a prominent, you know, significant population of folks who are related to those countries who obviously have say and interest in seeing democracy, stability, and human rights, and the like, in those countries, and are very active domestically here—make it a point of doing so. You have places like Mexico, and the Dominical Republic, and other Central American countries with not only issues of democratic order and what we consider, you know, bread and butter elections, and things like that, but also deep institutional weaknesses related to rule of law and insecurity that are, you know, affecting our domestic policy because people are fleeing their countries and coming here. So and then it becomes an internal immigration issue, an identity issue of, well, who is the United States, and who are all these people coming here, and who are these people? And they don’t look like, you know, what the U.S. should be. So there is that dynamic that is really I think not necessarily an election issue—which is, I guess, what maybe people want a basic notion of what democracy should look like, but really a matter of the role of the state in protecting—in citizen security and protecting your physical well-being, right? And I think for the most part, in many instances, in many of these countries—especially in Central America and parts of Mexico and even, gosh, in Venezuela and Colombia where, you know, you still have rampant violence, are questioning whether the state can really do that, and what should these states do to improve their mechanisms of protecting people. But also, how do people feel safe in their country and really represented by the folks who they elect and ensuring that they have their best interests in mind. That creates a whole set of dynamics and, you know, parallel, you know, folks fighting back, more violence, and turbulence within these countries, but also questions of the authority and the legitimacy of the state. Related to that, you have people just leaving, which is what we’re seeing here effecting the United States and our domestic policy on the border, and obviously coming by flight as well. More south of the region, of Latin America, you have countries that are—you know, don’t have those direct links as much with the United States, but have historically gone through significant shifts, very much towards democratic stability. But, again, you have an element which is very prevalent in Latin America right now, and such as most, but not all, countries, which is these anti-corruption movements that are really pushing back on historic power-grabbing and irregularities, and all types of illicit acts by government people and elites. And you saw that—we’ve seen that. We’re still living it from places like Argentina all the way to Mexico, with the most kind of prominent case being in Brazil with the really kind of role of the judiciary and role of the prosecutors in pursuing organized crime linking government officials directly with extraordinary organized bribery schemes and the like. And that toppled a government. You have presidents in prison. You have—specifically President Lula, who years ago was the model of the progressive movement and wave in Latin America, but also did such—made such a tremendous effort to reduce poverty in these countries, which still have significant inequality issues. From there to Argentina, where you have open indictments against the president who, by the way, has immunity because she’s a senator and is trying to become president again. So but that touches many of these countries with very, very, very few exceptions. So in any event, just in summary, there is no consistent kind of message or you can’t put all these countries in easy cubicles or easy boxes. There is—but, however, we can say that there is a civil society component that is important. The role of judiciary has become very prominent, in the prosecutors and fighting crime and pushing back on the role of elites and just doing whatever they want—in coordination, I must say, with the U.S. government, the role of the U.S. Justice Department here in coordinating these efforts. Again, this relationship between Latin America and the Caribbean, the United States, can’t—it’s extraordinary how much they coexist, and cooperate, and work together. From the judiciary and the federal government to the very basic coordination and coexistence of regular citizens and people who live here. So from the anti-corruption, rule of law issues to the—to the despair of people fleeing violence, these are things that are really questioning and touching state institutions and democracy as we know it in a lot of these countries. AYRES: Thank you. Uzra, an I turn to you and ask you to speak a little bit about the state of the field as you see it, whether from some of the regions that you have worked in or from the perspective of democracy more broadly? ZEYA: Sure. Sure, no and I’m delighted to be here in front of such a dynamic and diverse audience. I have to say that. I’ll speak from my own experience over two decades, working primarily in the Middle East, in South Asia, in Europe, but also from the perspective of leading an NGO network which is focused on ending violent conflict and sustaining peace throughout the world. So for me, when I consider the state of democracy, and building on what Julissa and Jendayi shared so eloquently, I think it’s easy to be pessimistic when you see closing space for civil society, when you see elected authoritarians on the rise. But I’m an optimist by nature. So I want to share a few takeaways from my own experiences that I think can be helpful if we are making an affirmative decision that we believe that the advancement of democratic principles by locally led actors around the world can create a more just and peaceful world. So my first takeaway would be, I think there is a tendency to over-focus on electoral processes as the be-all, end-all definition of democracy. Obviously that’s an essential element but, you know, a democratic society is not one man, one vote, one time. And I have seen this situation play out—I mean, I think Jendayi and Julissa, you know, very aptly described multiple circumstances where electoral processes are used—or an electoral victory can be used, constitutions manipulated, term limits removed, institutions of government co-opted in such a way that while you may have a regular electoral cycle, you no longer have a truly democratic society. So I think for all of us, you know, there’s an imperative to really focus on those building blocks, much of what has been discussed already. Checks and balances in terms of institutions of democratic government. We mentioned rule of law. Absolutely critical. A meaningful legislative-executive branch balance and divide. But perhaps most importantly, freedom of association that allows a vibrant, robust civil society that includes young people like you holding government accountable, because you can have elections every four, five, ten years. But if you do not allow civil society to thrive and drive change, you are really not going to achieve what I think, you know, the vision is of a truly just, inclusive, and peaceful world. So from my own experience I think, in government but also outside government, we need to look beyond electoral processes to a broader definition of a democratic society. The second point I would make is it’s not a one-size-fits-all approach. And certainly our American two-party model is truly the exception in the world. In my own experience, I was in India in 2009, where there were 1,049 political parties competing in their parliamentary elections. It’s almost mind-blowing. You know, you can imagine at an embassy, as a political officer, just trying to keep track of that. But I think it—(laughter)—you know, and I didn’t. (Laughter.) It was hard to name all of them until I met a member of the government—it was a coalition government—who confessed to me that he didn’t know the names of all the parties in his coalition. It’s that complex. So, again, when we talk about what democracy is, again, I would bring up the word locally led solutions. You’ve got to allow countries to define that, reflecting their own traditions, their own histories, their own modes of consensus building, and not imagine that it’s going to be a mirror image of what we have in the United States and that, in fact, what we have here is rather unique and different compared to the more common model of multiparty, multi-stakeholder, even regional, geographic divides that just aren’t quite reflected in our system. And the third and final point I would make is that, you know, the advance of democracy for Americans, it’s not just a nice to do. I mean, this is really a vital matter of our national security. And I think the point I would make is that, you know, authoritarian systems can look very stable and very strong. But as far as a long-term investment, you know, let’s go down the list of Mubarak, Baby Doc, Mobutu, the Shah Reza Pahlavi, and Ferdinand Marcos as examples of, you know, very close, long-standing U.S. allies that eventually the collective denial of rights, the corruption, the brittle nature of single-party rule was simply untenable. So while it seems as though one could take an approach, this doesn’t matter to me because I need to think about my own country, the outward effects of the demise of democracy or failed political transitions have catastrophic consequences far beyond borders. And need I mention just three cases in the Middle East right now? Syria, Yemen, and Libya. Where Syria, we have over half a million civilians killed. There is not an accurate toll. Yemen is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis at the moment. And the Libya crisis continues unresolved since 2012. All three cases, sadly, are failed or struggling political transitions where there was a window of opening. And in the Yemen case in particular it’s a very sad story, where there was a U.N.-led political process, there was an effort at—there was a transition from a long-standing leader. But we are all dealing with the consequences now. So, again, the idea that it doesn’t really matter to me I’m going to focus on what’s happening here, I think that’s—that is a short-sighted assessment. So for me, all of this means, you know, there is a strong national security case but also a moral case to support the advancement of democracy and just and inclusive societies. I think we have to take a long view and be willing to accompany for the long road. And with that, with humility, let’s look at our own country and look at how long it took for our own country to get beyond the scourge of slavery, and millions of Americans enslaved, half of the population disenfranchised, and realistically it was only in my lifetime that we have seen a full exercise of voting rights in our country. And with that, I think we can’t, you know, wash our hands and say that one country’s transition is failing because ten years in it isn’t achieving a level of inclusion and engagement that we see in our own country, but we really need to be able to accompany. And my final point on that would be, that takes a serious investment in diplomacy and development. Just one statistic I will share with you all, the field of work that my network supports, peacebuilding, it’s a spectrum of nonviolent action—everything from development, humanitarian relief, human rights capacity building—to sustain peace but also end violent conflict. That is only collectively 1 percent of overseas development assistance worldwide. If we were to double that number for the thirty-one most fragile states—states on the brink of becoming the next Syria or Yemen—the cost savings would be $2.94 trillion in terms of wars averted. So, you know, there is just a hardnosed cost argument one can make towards making that investment. The final piece, I would say, for that diplomacy to be successful, it’s got to be diverse and it has to include people like you as the next generation driving that forward. AYRES: Wow, thank you. (Laughs.) I am supposed to now open it up for Q&A. I wanted to ask each of our panelists to think a little bit about the future of democracy. But let’s hold that, because I want to make sure to get all of your questions in and we’re already at 10:30. So why don’t we go ahead and invite participants to join the conversation here. I’m supposed to remind everybody that the meeting is on the record. Please wait for the microphone. We have people with microphones who will bring it to you if you raise your hand. Stand, please. State your name and your affiliation. And, by the way, please limit yourself to one question, and keep it concise. No speeches, just a question. (Laughs.) So do you have any questions? Yes, over here. Q: Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. My name is Quscondy Abdulshafi. I am peacebuilding and governance researcher. My question is particularly with Africa, where you see a new very strong alliance between Chinese corporations and kleptocratic governments where exploitation of natural resources and minerals play a very strong role in foiling the violent conflicts and atrocities. So I just—I’m from Sudan, and I see how much the U.S. sanctions has played a very strong role on—(inaudible)—the state from committing further violence and helping people to peacefully change the government. So thinking in that angle, I see what—where do you see the new role for, in a sense, the U.S. Department of Treasury in doing individual and corporate sanctions for those in institutions that are related to the conflict are, minerals and conflict-related investments? How do you see this in the future? And what kind of perspectives do you see that could play a role in stabilization and promoting the democracy in fragmented states? Thank you. AYRES: Thank you very much. So a question on sanctions. FRAZER: Do you want to take it? ZEYA: Jendayi, do you want to go first? (Laughter.) FRAZER: I want you to go first. ZEYA: OK. I’ll take the—I’ll take the first part. On the sanctions question, you know, I would say, having been an American diplomat, you know, over twenty-five years, I’ll admit, you know, I think there is a really different perception within the U.S. government or within, let’s say, transatlantic government and public opinion with respect to sanctions. I view sanctions as a very effective tool, short of war, to try to compel a change in behavior. And I think with respect to conflict minerals, you can make a case that it cut off a method of fueling further conflict. But it can only work if you have a partnership or a collective—either, you know, a U.N. Security Council Chapter 7 enforcement action, or a likeminded effort with respect to denying, you know, access to the market of a certain product that is produced or fueling violent action. I mean, in my own lifetime, you know, as a college student, it was a strong supporter of the divestment movement with respect to South Africa. And I think that is, you know, certainly not taking any credit for the struggle that was led by the South African people, but I think that is one of the instances you can point to where sanctions did play a positive pressure role in pushing for a necessary change. But that’s just from my on perspective. FRAZER: Sure. Maybe I can take up the question of Sudan specifically. Yes, you’re quite right that the Chines role in Sudan, and I would say more broadly in Africa, is one in which they claim that they’re not interfering in domestic affairs. And they’ve taken a position, therefore, in which they’re working often with the regime. In Sudan, in particular, not only were they taking oil out, but they were putting a lot of arms in. They were, you know, trading a lot of arms in Sudan. And so clearly they were supporters of the regime, whereas the United States has historically been in opposition to the Khartoum government for a number of human rights issues and terrorism issues as well. But of late, in—I think it was in 2017—we had taken sanctions off, there was a roadmap for Sudan to get out of the grip of the United States. And there are some who argue that the effectiveness of the demonstrations in Sudan of ousting the president Bashir, had a lot to do with the failure—the restraint of the Khartoum government to crackdown on those demonstrations, given that they were also at the same time trying to further reduce sanctions with the United States. They’re in this roadmap process in which they needed to show greater restraint. Yet, they were dealing with a civil uprising and not able to take the brute force—it’s not to say that they weren’t still, you know, picking off civil society leaders and members, et cetera. So that dynamic was definitely there. What I would argue is that on the extractive side, China and the United States are not absolutely different, right, especially historically, right? So that most of the two-way trade between the United States and Africa is actually still in the extractives, just as it is with China. We are more—we have been more nuanced about our promotion of democracy, and human rights, and civil society because we don’t take this position of non-interference. We do interfere. In the past, we’ve interfered both diplomatically as well as through our statements. And then we can perhaps go too far when we start taking more extreme measures like we look, from my perspective, in Libya. So I do agree with you that sanctions is a tool that gives us perhaps not as—not as robust, but probably a more effective approach to putting pressure on regimes and on individuals. Certainly from our civil society, there continues to be a push—and in our government—to use economic sanctions and smart sanctions particularly to bring pressure. We used those—that pressure against the government in Zimbabwe. We obviously—we had so many sanctions on Sudan that over years—you know, the Clinton administration, the Bush administration, the Obama administration—you know, we had so many sanctions that we didn’t even know how to get out of them. I mean, our Congress has put so many sanctions on that there was a whole interagency process to figure out what would the government actually have to do to get out of these sanctions. Some of them didn’t have an out. They just had—you know, they didn’t specify what the government needed to do to change. But with these smart sanctions, I think they’re effective, but I also worry about them a little bit, because when you can’t unroll them, then they also become a barrier to actually getting change in the government. Or if you put them on specific individuals who have significant power, it also can entrench them. So none of these tools of diplomacy can be utilized individually as the right tool. It’s a matter of how it’s nuanced and how it’s worked diplomatically. So I think that’s the most important point. And I’ll put—I’ll say that without senior diplomats and without experienced diplomats, the use of these tools becomes less effective—much, much less effective. And I’m saying that because I do feel that the State Department in particular has been hollowed out in terms of its serious senior diplomats who can use these tools in a very nuanced fashion. So, yes, clearly sanctions work. Individual sanctions also put pressure. But they could also be counterproductive. AYRES: Other questions? Over here, yes. Q: Hello. My name is Nabila (ph). I am from Ecuador. And coming from Ecuador, I can definitely identify with what some of the panelists have said about democracy. My question is, what strengths can a country develop to improve their democracy from—and then defend it from both inside and outside threats? And when is outside intervention needed? Is outside intervention beneficial? When? Thank you very much. AYRES: Some of the big animating questions of U.S. foreign policy. Julissa, would you like to try that one? REYNOSO: Well, I mean, in every democracy has its challenges. We’ve seen it here. How do you make sure—how do you preserve a certain level of stability, or at least a minimum standard of whatever it is that we consider democracy? I think obviously empowering the—I’m a big fan of the separation of powers. And so one of the great things about this country—and I think the countries that I’m—in Latin America and all over the world that you really have stability, is these are countries that have institutions that are strong, but also independent, because you can have one institution that’s very strong and then does whatever it wants. But in the case of United States, we do have extremely preserved, independent, and respected by the citizens institutions. And as a lawyer, the judiciary, the courts are essential, I think, to preserving democracy. One thing is setting it up. Making sure—you know, having elections and having a democratic process, if you will, of electing leadership. But the other important piece is protection of rights or preserving rights and ensuring that there is a check on the authorities or the powers that are every day exercising that authority. And I think, for me, the courts are essential. Obviously civil society, broadly defined, but who protects what—what branch of government can essentially protect the civil society and minority views within that civil society? Again, the courts are key. So not to overemphasize it, but definitely having an independent judiciary that has its own kind of means and processes of deliberating and protecting minority voices and different points of view and critiques are, I think, critical to really preserving long-term some form of robust democracy. So I’ll leave it at that. AYRES: OK. Next question, here. Q: Thank you. Earl Carr, representing Momentum Advisors. I work in New—I’m based in New York City, working in the private sector. Oftentimes in the private sector we often talk about short-term—you know, what is the return for investors. How best should organizations like yourselves engage with the private sector? And how to get better buy-in from the private sector to further and strengthen democratic institutions? AYRES: Well, I think Jendayi and Julissa are both in the private sector. REYNOSO: I’m in the private sector, yeah. I haven’t been in government in a while. (Laughter.) Do you want to start, Jendayi? FRAZER: No, you go right ahead. (Laughter.) REYNOSO: OK. I mean, look, I think we all served abroad in some—these ladies longer than I did. But the private sector—U.S. investments and presence abroad are key to what we do, to what we did as U.S. diplomats. Obviously a big component of the United States’ presence abroad is capital. And that presence and that ability to, you know, discuss—present the United States not only as a—you know, a power of politics, and doctrine, and ideas, is definitely well-complimented by a power that actually can help you, country X, with job creation, and the growth, and economic prosperity. So that’s essential for what we do in promoting U.S. interests abroad, is that is a piece that is key. It’s also very important because private sector in the United States by law, again, not just because we’re good, enlightened people—by law also has to have a certain standard of conduct. And so having that certain standard of conduct that is applied not only within the United States but abroad for companies all over the place that have—that have benefit in the United States, be that from tax or some other regulatory matter, helps us set standards for—set the standard for other foreign investors—like the Chinese, like whatever, the Russians, et cetera. So the private sector is key, not only in diplomats don’t what we do but also spreading American power and American standards abroad. FRAZER: Yeah. I guess I’ll add to that. I would say that obviously private sector companies would rather operate in an environment of stability, and the rule of law, and transparency, right? And so we absolutely, as private sector, need that environment, especially for long-term investments. And so we have, I think, a common interest with the U.S. government in trying to promote the rule of law, and transparency, and fairness. Now, I would say that the standards that you’re talking about are important, but they also often hurt American companies—like the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, et cetera—because other countries don’t actually implement. And also, the United States, in some coercive ways, I’ll say, goes after major companies. And they’re easy targets when they’re operating in countries like Africa and other places, where it’s very unclear and it can be quite opaque what the rule of law is. And so I think there needs to be a bit of a balance there with our Department of Justice actually working with the private sector, not actually going after the private sector, which undermines our capacity to be competitive in these, you know, emerging markets, is the way I would put it. So, yes, you know, an American presence and an American—and I’m talking about a U.S. government presence—an American positive presence within the countries—i.e., having good, open relations with the government—is going to be beneficial to the American private sector. The private sector often also have networks and ears on the ground in a way that’s different than official America. And so I think that the two, the private sector and the public sector overseas, can work quite well together. It shouldn’t be put in a position of opposition, you know? And I think that in some ways our Department of Justice today, in Africa now I’m talking about, especially as it relates to the Chinese and competition with the Chinese, is actually not helping us. I think they’re undermining us in many ways. ZEYA: If I can just pick up on Jendayi’s point about partnership, I think there are some—a bit of unsung success stories in terms of really a proliferation of multi-stakeholder partnerships that engage the private sector in upholding broader goals on things like fair labor standards. There’s the Fair Labor Association, involves several major American garment manufacturers, coming out of tragedies like the Rana Plaza fire in Bangladesh, which exposed conditions of labor for products that all Americans buy, that there’s a direct linkage between the supply chain but also the consumer base. But here, these are voluntary frameworks where companies are working with the U.S. government, with civil society organizations in the U.S. towards a broader goal. When I was running our human rights bureau, we were able to secure very meaningful participation by companies like Deloitte or Hilton on something called the Global Equality Fund, which is a multi-stakeholder partnership to advance LGBT equality across the world. Similarly, we partnered with Avon International to launch a new partnership countering gender-based violence. So I think there is absolutely an intersection and an interest. And I think there is a very strong base for partnership to grow on, as Jendayi said, and not see it purely as an enforcement or a punitive relationship. AYRES: I saw one back here, in the back on this side. Yeah. Q: Hi. Thank you. Simone Williams, Center for Strategic and International Studies. As we see information being manipulated as a tool to attack democratic states, what do you think can be done to combat this issue to further promote and protect democratic institutions? FRAZER: That’s a great question. AYRES: Yeah. Who’s working on this? Are you—(laughter)—who would like to speak to this one? This is a really specific, emerging issue. ZEYA: Yeah. I mean, I would be happy to address that. I have worked on that issue from different angles, both in government and in the private sector. I do think this is—this is a challenge for democratic societies, and particularly our own, with respect to the First Amendment and in preserving our core democratic principles, but also ensuring that information is not manipulated or presented in a deceptive way that is basically one form of cyberwarfare against our country. So they’re in—I do think, you know, there’s a very concerted effort and dialogue between government and the leading players in Silicon Valley in terms of—and a strong element of public pressure. I would say where—you know, where we are right now in 2019, I think, is very different from where the United States was in 2015. I worked—my last overseas assignment was in France, where I would say public opinion and public demand on issues of privacy is just way ahead of where the United States has been for the last decade. But I think we’re catching up. So I think there’s a scope for partnership and pressure, you know, in terms of the major players who are allowing this kind of information to proliferate on their platforms without, you know, let’s say accountability or origin in where it comes from. But within a legal frame we have to be very careful that in a desire to prevent we’re not undermining the very pillars of our own democracy. FRAZER: I just would add to that, just very briefly, it does cut both ways, where you see, and particularly in Africa, where—well, I shouldn’t say particularly. But definitely in Africa, where you see countries during, you know, post-election contestation, let’s put it that way, and they’re shutting down social media, and shutting down the press, in many ways prevent certain messages from coming out which they say can promote violence or ethnic, you know, tension. But in fact, it also shuts down opposition voices. And so it really does cut both ways. AYRES: Yeah. Before I take the next question I’m going to chime in for a half a second, just to note I would encourage all of you to take a look at the role that social media platforms are playing in India’s national elections, which are going on right now. India’s the—I think the largest country userbase for WhatsApp, which is end-to-end encrypted. It means that nobody has any idea what’s circulating. The social media platforms got together in advance of the beginning of the elections and created a voluntary code of conduct. That code of conduct is available. You can download it and read it. It’s on the Election Commission of India’s website. But that may provide something of a guidepost for the future of how the platforms will have to try to be accountable for the kind of disinformation that circulates, while also allowing freedom of expression that’s so important. Next question. We’ll go on this side. Right here in the middle. Q: Hi. Thank you so much. I’m Elizabeth Boyvit (ph). I work for NBCUniversal. But don’t worry, I’m not on the media side. (Laughter.) I’m in cyberthreat intelligence. But my question for you is a follow-up on your point on democracy and national security, and democracy being on of the posts on which, to a degree, stability stands on. Recently we began to see the—almost a disintegration of norms in American politics, polarization, rules on the Senate and House floors being shifted for party—along party lines. So I wanted to ask you what your thoughts were on the effect of maybe the loss of some of the democratic norms in the United States are, and should we be concerned? REYNOSO: I can start. (Laughter.) So I’m more of an optimist than most lawyers are. (Laughter.) I actually—over the last several years, we’ve seen sort of institutions be weakened by elections, by questionable activity, by potentially violating laws, and the like. We’ve seen this movie before in different time periods. What has been interesting—well, this is the time period where we’re living so it’s like, wow, right? But this is not new in this country. But what is interesting is the rise of other institutions, particularly the role of the states and cities, in really countering—really balancing some of the federal activities that are borderline dysfunctional and maybe illegal, right? So I actually have been very impressed by the many states that have been active in claims and both legally but also passing local legislation and laws to protect vulnerable people who are—who have been kind of targeted by the executive branch. And I think that just says a lot about our democracy, and how robust and diversified the powers are, which I think is really unique and extraordinary. And we should all be grateful, but also impressed, I think, by how intriguing and impactful that has been. I also—you also see the rise of all these folks, regular citizens, activating to do all types of things. You know, from forming new types of alliances and groups to running for office at every level. People—women—more women than ever, people of color, all types of folks who have historically not felt that they were part of that group. And now they are really involved in doing it, and getting it done. And so I think it’s a motivating factor, but I also think institutionally as a democracy our democracy is so strong and so diversified in its power that you’ve seen the rise of really interesting institutions and organizations from municipalities, to states, to the office of so-and-so attorney general, going after, you know, wrongdoing, and are seizing moments to protect vulnerable people. So I am not—I think we’re—I think we’re still the greatest democracy around. AYRES: Let me take one last question to take us to 11:00 a.m. Right here. Q: Thank you. My name is Edgar Cruz. I’m an alum for Public Policy International Affairs Program. I’m also in the digital media space in civic tech. My question is if you could give one or two suggestions, actions, demonstrations that I as a man of color can be a more empathetic and ally for women, and specifically women of color in the foreign relations space. AYRES: Would all three like to answer? We can just go down the row. Uzra. ZEYA: One, I commend you for your question and your aspiration. And I would say, I spent a lot career in the State Department, where there is something called corridor reputation. You know, it’s sort of—it’s basically your rep, what people—who do you know? And I guess I would say to all of you, in terms of that who do you know, you know, really try wherever you sit to give a leg up and a helping hand to people around you. But look at getting beyond your immediate circle too. What I find is that with respect to personnel decisions, it’s personnel, but it’s often personal. And you know, to your question, you are woke, aware—(laughter)—and you want to—I know, I’m a terrible mom. My kids would be so embarrassed that I said that. (Laughter.) But I would say, I think you can do that wherever you sit, and wherever your span of authority is. And, you know, there is no initiative at the Department of State that has one owner. It’s always a team effort. But maybe even looking beyond your immediate horizon or the people you usually deal with to bring in those women of color and other people you don’t know, and to make them your network, and to help one another. I think that makes a positive difference. AYRES: Julissa. REYNOSO: I think that’s a perfect answer. I think, again, in whatever space you are, ensuring that you have—you’re open-minded, and not assuming anything about anybody. But when you get to a position where you actually can exercise some power, ensuring that you’re mindful enough to be—to give the opportunity—not only the opportunity, the push, for people who you know haven’t had the greatest or the most robust set of circumstances that others might have. So I think we all have to do that daily, just be really thoughtful and mindful about how we interact with each other, and the assumptions we make about people. But in terms of not only our thought process, but in an affirmative action way give opportunities to the folks who—women of color historically have been the most disenfranchised, most definitely, in our—in our environments and our spaces of decision-making. AYRES: Jendayi. FRAZER: Yeah, I mean, I think that by asking the question you are already there. You know, your mindset is there. I would also say, be conscious in your choices of mentorships. That meaning, you being mentored by others who are more senior to you, and then you mentoring others who are more junior to you. And I would say, make sure that you have a broad, diverse set of mentors and mentees. And then if you do that, I think it’ll beneficial to your career and to others who you interact with. AYRES: Thank you. So this takes us to 11:00 a.m. We’re going to have coffee and breakout sessions immediately afterwards. But will you all please join me in thanking our incredibly experienced panel today? Thank you. (Applause.) (END)
  • India
    Sustainability, Urban Concerns, and the Indian Elections
    General elections for India’s lower house of parliament began on April 11 and will last through May 19, with all ballots counted on May 23. This is the world’s largest democratic exercise. I had the chance to ask Dr. Jessica Seddon, director of integrated urban strategy at the World Resources Institute’s WRI Ross Center for Sustainable Cities and non-resident fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about infrastructure, the environment, sustainability, and the role that nongovernmental policy ideas play in India. Our exchange, the third of a series of Q & As on the Indian elections, appears below. The first is here, the second here, and the fourth here. You have advised state and national development initiatives in India. One of the policy areas you have written about is the new role of nongovernmental policy coalitions in pressing for specific development improvements. To what extent do you see nongovernment policy advice making its way into the public debate in India and affecting election priorities? Think tanks are still a relatively small sector in India, for example.  Election priorities are shaped as much by citizens’ experiences and aspirations as anything else. I would not say that nongovernment policy coalitions are setting that agenda. They are, however, contributing to election offerings – the response to these priorities. I wrote earlier about the role of nongovernment policy coalitions in developing solutions to the kinds of urban problems that show up as election and political priorities. The emphasis then was on the “Do” part of DIY, or the fact that nongovernment organizations were not just writing up recommendations and blueprints (the think tank model) but actually working with governments to see them through to implementation. This approach remains influential in urban policy, and seems poised to grow as platforms like World Resources Institute’s CityFix Labs, Tata Trusts’ Quest for Urban Livability, and IIT Madras’s Centre on Urbanisation, Buildings, and the Environment enable more formal partnerships between city officials and entrepreneurs, academics, and civic groups who can help address key infrastructure and service gaps. Some of the solutions that come from these local engagements are also increasingly percolating up into national policy agendas as leaders at that level search for ready examples of “better” urbanization. The Smart Cities Mission has also been somewhat of a conduit for the migration of nongovernment-origin ideas across cities. The current government and contenders have also relied heavily on nongovernment sources of data and analysis of priorities. It’s one thing for a government to contract a private provider to collect a dataset or do a report – many do – but it’s another for a nongovernment organization to frame the question and gather the data that defines a good part of the reality policymakers respond to. India has a number of large-scale nongovernment initiatives that do just that. Some of these are quite public: Skymet’s weather service and monsoon forecasts, which run in parallel to and in some ways compete with the Indian Meteorological Department; ASER’s survey of educational attainment; and CEEW’s Access Survey on household energy use and gaps, for example. Sometime these influences are acknowledged; as part of its description of the urban agenda, the Ministry of Finance’s 2017 Economic Survey included analysis of “actual” urbanization based on remote sensing of built-up areas in addition to the official census figures. More often they’re not as openly mentioned.  Finally, on think tanks. Yes, this is a small sector, but I think increasingly influential for the same reasons that nongovernmental policy coalitions have been a force in cities. Policymakers need well-grounded solutions, and there is not as much of an infrastructure within the government to produce the analyses that help take an idea to an implementable stage. The Niti Aayog has not yet grown into its intended role as the nation’s strategic think-tank. The top level of experienced civil servants includes some brilliant individuals, but is stretched thin by today’s pressing problems.  You’ve also done a lot of work on environmental policy, specifically on air quality. At a time when India’s deteriorating air quality has become a subject of increased awareness and demand for change, how much do you see this priority reflected in the general election?   I don’t see air pollution as a headline issue in the general election. It is on peoples’ minds, but has neither risen to the level of, say, jobs, infrastructure, or services in terms of demand, nor has it in any way trumped national pride, group loyalty, or party affiliation as a motivator to vote one way or another.  But to be fair, it’s not really an election-type issue. The visible part of the problem – the haze people can see, the sickness they might attribute to pollution – is small relative to the empirical size of the problem. Air pollution reduces crop yields, changes local and global climate, limits solar power production, and probably affects the monsoon. The crop yield loss numbers are astounding: annual pollution-related losses in India could feed 94 million people. And Indian varieties of staple crops may be more vulnerable than previously assumed: a more detailed study in Mohali found that yield losses were double those of American and European crop varieties. But these impacts are not so visible in an everyday sense.  Still, it is on peoples’ minds. A 2017 survey of people in 11 cities around India commissioned by Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation found that 30-40% (and more than half in Delhi) were “aware” of air pollution and thought it a problem. About 40% of respondents didn’t think that the air quality was acceptable. This proportion seems to be growing. Forty-four percent of adults surveyed in the Spring 2018 Pew Global Attitudes Survey thought that air pollution was a “very big problem” even though the time period wasn’t peak (visible) pollution season. More than half of respondents though the air was getting worse. Even in smaller towns and rural areas, the smoke during burning season and in the winter is something people generally recognize as related to childrens’ coughs, etc. So it’s an issue – but still, not at the level of jobs, which 76% of respondents in the same Pew Survey rated as a “very big problem.” Air quality has also appeared in party manifestos, which is a change from 2014. The proposals are a little haphazard – tightening standards, moving deadlines forward, doubling down on electric vehicles, setting up new and overarching authorities. But they are there, and the proposals cover both sectoral action and governance changes, which is great.  So we’ll see. Some thoughtful proposals on strengthening regulators, improving monitoring, and thinking through sector emission reduction are circulating within the various Ministries and Finance Commission, and it would be great if some of these could see the light of day.  Every Indian government says it prioritizes infrastructure, but some are able to implement better than others. What do you see as the major infrastructure hurdles for the five years ahead, and are we seeing a realistic discussion about those challenges in this year’s campaigning?  Implementation. Implementation. Implementation. This has always been the challenge: getting from a will to a way. To be honest, I haven’t seen too much variation in the rate of implementation across the administrations I’ve been watching or working with since the Vajpayee years. Nor do I think that a political change, whether at the state or national level, would fundamentally change the pace at which projects can be rolled out, since so much of the challenge has to do with the administrative structure of too many agencies, too little data for advance planning and risk mitigation, and not enough clarity or consistency in the various frameworks for approvals of everything from environmental permissions to land allocations. Even when the policy seems clear, the details of its application are often vague enough to give all parties enough confidence to test their own interpretation – and end up in court. My husband is an infrastructure lawyer in Delhi and sees a lot of this end of the implementation friction. Someday I’ll figure out how to tally the anecdotes more systematically.  I think that regional climate change is a big, often ignored issue for infrastructure. Regional environmental change – temperature increases, new precipitation patterns, more severe storms, higher sea levels and storm surges, and other new normals – is altering both the need for infrastructure and the nature of risk and requirements for project viability. This may not be as much of an issue for a five year horizon as it is for a 10 year or more view, but it is certainly worthy of more attention than it’s getting. The infrastructure built today is expected to contribute to development well into the future, but it may not do so unless the nature of the next few decades is considered more systematically. We are already seeing signs of stress. Ninety percent of India’s thermal power plants – which provide the country with most of its electricity – rely on freshwater for cooling, and 40 percent already experience high water stress. This will only increase. The environment for near-coastal infrastructure from roads to tunnels to ports is changing quickly, yet few projects are working with updated projections for sea levels and their implications for drainage requirements. India’s wind power ambitions may not be realistic in light of future wind levels – where’s the electricity that will still be needed going to come from?  I’m not seeing a realistic discussion in campaigning about the need to build infrastructure for a future that will be different than today. That’s not so surprising, though. Election season is a time when the operative word is “more.” I would love to see (or hear about, if it’s happening) mo re of a conversation about how infrastructure planning and procurement could be updated to account for the need to buy redundancy, to accommodate what might seem like overbuilding today, and to allocate climate-related risk between all parties. This shift to resilience-thinking rather than efficiency-focus is hard, though. It’s not just India.  The growing awareness of India’s urban needs is one of the most interesting policy developments in India. The UPA government had its national urban mission; the BJP created the Smart Cities Mission, and this year the Congress Party’s manifesto promised governance reforms at the urban level. What would you assess are the top development issues for the next Indian government as India increasingly urbanizes?  I would say that the top urbanization issue is just to recognize it. All of it. India’s census says that the country is 31% urban, but this is a well-known underestimate of the amount of territory with an urban-like built environment, the number of local governments that are under pressure to meet the needs of urban-size populations, and the percentage of people who live at urban-like density. India’s official definition of “urban” has an odd quirk of being related to the nature of adult employment (75% nonagricultural) in addition to population size and density, and its system for declaring a local government “urban” rather than “rural” (they have different powers) lags behind reality. This is well known and even sort of officially recognized – see the Economic Survey 2017. It’s just not actually built into public investment planning or the version of reality that shapes urban strategy.  The fact that India is probably about half or more urban right now creates both new opportunities and challenges. On the challenges side, there’s the fact that higher density populations need different and more extensive infrastructure than low density. Pit latrines or even septic systems don’t work; you need to do drainage and sewage treatment. Low-capacity distribution transformers meant for a village are not going to power a town, much less a town that has more gadgets, electric stoves that operate in unison, and (hopefully) increasing productive use. You could do the same analysis across a number of sectors – and it should be done. On the opportunities side, there’s a real chance to invest in emerging population centers to make them more attractive and productive – places where people want to stay rather than migrate to the already-straining and growing metropolitan regions. Strategic investment to create conditions for a more uniform distribution of population could be a game-changer for India.    What will you be watching most closely during India’s 2019 general election?  The numbers, like everybody else! Well, I’m waiting for the numbers; it’s actually excruciating to see the voting unfold in slow motion over this month. I’ll be particularly curious to see what happens in Tamil Nadu, because it was home for so long and hopefully will be again. I’m also watching Odisha, because it’s such a pitched fight between a long-standing regional party and the BJP. I think the period right after the election will really be the part to watch because of the role regional parties will probably play in the configuration that emerges. I’ve always been fascinated by the elusive “third front” in Indian politics, and it seems like we may see a kind of “intrapreneurial” version of one emerge later this year.   My book about India’s rise on the world stage, Our Time Has Come: How India Is Making Its Place in the World, was published by Oxford University Press in January 2018. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa. Or like me on Facebook (fb.me/ayresalyssa) or Instagram (instagr.am/ayresalyssa).
  • India
    Development and the Indian Elections
    General elections for India’s lower house of  parliament began on April 11 and will last through May 19, with all ballots counted on May 23. This is the world’s largest democratic exercise. I had the chance to ask Dr. Aseema Sinha, Wagener Family professor of South Asian politics and George R. Roberts fellow at Claremont McKenna College, about India’s political economy, and development as an issue for voters. She is the author of Globalizing India: How Global Rules and Markets are Shaping India’s Rise to Power (2016) and the award-winning The Regional Roots of Developmental Politics in India: A Divided Leviathan (2005). Our exchange, the second of a series of Q & As on the Indian elections, appears below. The first of the series is here, the third here, and the fourth here. Your early work examined how some states in India managed to clock economic development gains better than others, even during the era of a centrally-planned economy. What is the picture across Indian states today? Today, as during the license-quota-raj period (the pre-reform era of bureaucratic dominance over the economy during the 1950s to 1980s), economic output, policy, and wellbeing varies by state. Indian states are as large as European nations and in some cases, such as with Uttar Pradesh [UP] and Bihar, larger. For example, Bihar’s population is 99 million, UP’s is 204 million, West Bengal’s is 90 million, and Karnataka’s is 64 million. Without understanding regional and local variations we will not understand India. I argued in 2005 that most approaches and our analytical vision understands the Indian state as a “unified actor, which either succeeds or fails but does so coherently.” Nothing could be farther from the truth. Subnational developmental states and regional party systems are the dominant reality of India. Economic conditions vary: the per capita annual income in Goa is $4,903, the highest in the country, while the per capita annual income in UP is $793. Bihar, UP, Manipur, Assam, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, and Odisha are the poorest states in terms of per capita income. In essence, development aspirations, wellbeing, and capacities vary across states, as does the politics. While some of this variation can be explained by diverse structural factors, political elites from states vie with each other to address their specific economic challenges by designing investment, technology, energy, and welfare policies. Thus, much of economic policy and developmental action takes place at the state-level. State-level economic conditions and economic strategies to take advantage of national, or central government initiatives and outline state-specific policies are very important. As an illustration, each state has launched literacy programs to address regional aspirations for education and to take advantage of national programs such as Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, a program for girls’ literacy. Himachal Pradesh has witnessed many innovative primary literacy programs and great success in increasing literacy, as has Kerala, while Bihar’s literacy is much lower. Himachal Pradesh’s literacy rate in 2011 was 83.8% and Kerala’s literacy rate was 93.9%, while Bihar’s was 63.8% [2011 data]. However, since Bihar’s government in 2006 introduced an innovative program providing a mere $50 per girl for buying bicycles, school enrollment by girls has dramatically increased. These average variations affect women and minority populations disproportionately. For example, in Kerala 92% of women and 96% of men are literate, while in Bihar only 53.3% of women and 73.5% of men are literate. The gender literacy gap is, thus, much greater in Bihar than in Kerala or Tamil Nadu. If you are a poor woman in UP or Bihar, your life chances and opportunities are likely much worse than if you were poor woman in Kerala. In essence, well being and life chances vary dramatically by state. This is also true for a wide array of policy areas: industrial and investment policies, energy and renewal energy policies, and welfare and social policies such as those related to education and health. Observers have spoken of the Gujarat model, but there are multiple models across India’s regions: the Kerala model, the Tamil Nadu model, and the Bihar model of inclusion with social justice, for example. Even bureaucratic intentions and state capacity vary across states. The ability of different states to attract investment needs to be measured while keeping these differences in mind, as the Ministry of Commerce and Industry has also realized. However, it is important to note that state leaders act and re-order their economic fortunes shaped by larger contexts of the country and global forces. Regional decisions shape national intentions and initiatives and vice versa. A frame of reference encompassing interaction between the center and states is, thus, needed. For example, the central energy act of 2003 and the central solar policies have played an important role for state-level energy policies. So, there are some national forces—economic integration, central policies, diffusion, and competition across states—which affect all states, but different states respond in varied ways. Focusing only on the national or the subnational level will miss much of the policy and political economy dynamics that are subnational and interactional. It is, thus, important to adopt an interactive or polycentric framework to understand how states and their specific strategies shape and are shaped by larger processes of globalization and central policies. As I argued in a recent article, we need to move our line of focus to the subnational level while also using a framework that scales up and pays attention to diffusion and interactive dynamics. This scaling-down and scaling-up idea is very different from a Delhi-centric focus, which is the dominant focus when most observers view India. You’ve written about the emergence of a “contingent social coalition on behalf of development and economic growth across India.” How broad do you believe this coalition to be? Is it a coalition favoring economic reform, or more of a coalition favoring quality of life and human development improvements? The aspiration for higher incomes and development outcomes has extensive and wide support. Clear beneficiaries of the economic reform such as the middle classes, business classes, entrepreneurs, and small scale businesses support this focus. Support for a focus on economic and social welfare has also pervaded the aspirational neo-middle classes, lower middle class, migrants, and urban middle classes. The middle and aspirational middle classes hope for better roads, education, urban infrastructure, access to consumer choices, and health. Some sections that are struggling such as the urban and rural poor, agricultural landless, and informal sector workers seek their livelihoods at the periphery of semi-urban and urban economies, which further widens the support for economic change. A developmental coalition is, thus, quite broad, but the challenge in laying out its contours is that it does not map onto socio-economic categories like caste or class. Also, it is not pro-reform if reforms are understood as privatization or greater market reforms, unless they benefit the common people. In my view, economic and socioeconomic differentiation within many group and class categories has emerged and different sections of each grouping are beginning to demand economic services and benefits. For example, Professor Sudha Pai’s work has shown that some sections of the poorer Dalits in UP did not vote for the Bahujan Samaj Party, or BSP (a party devoted to Dalit empowerment), in 2014 as they preferred economic mobility more than caste expression. She and Sajjan Kumar also show that despite violence targeting Dalits, some poorer Dalits may not vote for the Samajwadi Party-BSP alliance in 2019 due to an economic logic. In contrast to the received wisdom about caste and political parties, urban poor and poorer middle classes—the aspirational groups—have a high demand for basic services such as water, electricity, subsidized health facilities and better public transport, and they may not vote only according to the caste group to which they belong. India’s development pattern has paradoxically become more capital intensive and service sector focused, which narrows the job opportunities that may open up. So, developmental demand is acquiring a renewed urgency due to joblessness and agrarian distress. I wrote about this in 2015 when I argued that a new dimension of development has opened up and most voters want to share in the economic changes they see happening around them. At the individual or community level (caste or region), there is a serious demand that the benefits of reforms reach the last Indian. Voters do not demand economic reform per se, but want higher incomes and more stable and secure livelihoods. Voters also want economic and social services such as health and education, and better infrastructure such as roads and trains. A recent survey confirms this trend. This may be the result of the revolution of rising expectations that the reforms of 1991, and the broadening of welfare and development schemes by the successive governments of Atal Behari Vajpayee (1998 to 2004) and Manmohan Singh (2004 to 2014), unleashed. The Indian National Congress (or “Congress”) party does not talk much about what Manmohan Singh’s government did, but he, especially during his first term, unleashed a remarkable social and economic revolution—a version of a New Deal—across India. This widespread development hunger has taken a specific Indian form. Even now, 29 years after the reform program of 1991, government jobs are in high demand, although this is also shaped by regional factors. Such demand is very strong in the north, east, and to some extent in Rajasthan and central India, but less so in the west and south. As a follow up, what are the political processes that are supporting this growing demand for development? I know you have done deep research into business associations as developmental associations, for example. Is this a major factor? Are the “rising expectations” among voters an important factor? India started its reform program in 1991, and by some accounts 1985. That would mean that reforms have continued for 34 years. The central government especially between 2004-2014 used some of the rising revenues to start new welfare programs. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Act was one such measure. Many state governments also have been active in providing welfare facilities such as education, health centers and e-governance initiatives. The cumulative effect created a revolution of rising expectations across diverse sections of India’s population. A desire for upward mobility has, for example, created new demands among the Dalits and Muslims. Those who have not benefited also want some of the benefits to reach them, such as with new health welfare programs targeting different sections of the middle classes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi understood this desire and tapped into it during the 2014 elections. An informal business mentality has pervaded large swathes of both urban and rural India, even though the big, national business associations only cater to a small urban and upwardly mobile elite, so their reach is by definition limited. There is another supply-side dynamic also at work. Since voters demand more economic benefits and India has a strong anti-incumbency preference (meaning that incumbency does not provide an advantage at election time), politicians and parties have realized the need to construct cross-caste coalitions and make election promises focused on local and national public goods like education and health. Paradoxically, the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP] under Modi is also promising a national public good—national security—to appeal to a wider, broader coalition across India. So, there is both a demand-driven and supply-side logic at work. Let me ask you about global trade and Indian politics. Are there differences among Indian parties in their support for, or opposition to, trade liberalization? Are there some core beliefs that cross parties? The Congress party has supported trade liberalization along with compensation for its core support base. The BJP’s policies were transformed from an anti-globalization mindset to a more pro-globalization stance during the Vajpayee government (1998-2004). The Communist parties have been consistently against trade liberalization. Regional parties have become more pro-reform and even pro-globalization, although one needs to do a specific analysis keeping in mind regional factors. Interestingly, there are some reports that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS, a Hindu nationalist volunteer organization) and the Swadeshi Jagran Manch, an organization affiliated with the RSS and BJP and focused on “self-reliance,” have become more active since 2014 when the Modi government came to power. Both organizations are against globalization. Modi is a long-term member of the RSS. This easy access for these organizations is a significant change from the Vajpayee era. Based on press accounts, their leaders seem to get more of a hearing with Modi. S. Gurumurthy, the co-convenor of the Swadeshi Jagran Manch, has been made a part-time director of the Reserve Bank of India, the country’s central bank. These groups criticized the highly regarded mainstream economists Raghuram Rajan and Arvind Panagariya during their tenures serving in the Indian government. One plausible reason for this shift is that Modi is one of the most election conscious BJP leaders and he is focused on how to get votes. The RSS and committed groups like the Swadeshi Jagran Manch provide grassroots volunteers to mobilize votes at election time, and they appear to have greater influence on the Modi government. This means that anti-globalization ideas may get more tacit government hearing. However, Modi has also seen the advantage of seeking a global audience and using that for domestic purposes. Modi uses foreign policy for his domestic ambitions. So, he is unlikely to be against globalization consistently, but India’s globalization has always been very different from what most people expect, as I have argued earlier. In essence, Indian leaders have learned to modify global forces to shape national interests in a distinct way. Modi will continue using globalization, imbuing it this time with his Hindu-centric nationalist imprint. Manmohan Singh, India’s PM from 2004-2014, also crafted his own version of globalization, which he called “globalization with a human face.” What will you be watching most closely during India’s 2019 general election? I am watching the states of West Bengal, Bihar, Assam, and Karnataka where the BJP is expected to make inroads. I will be watching different regions of UP and how the alliance between the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party [BSP] fares in western as well as eastern UP. The southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu are also fascinating; there is a subterranean anti-BJP feeling there and it will be interesting to see if that sentiment affects voting results. It is as if one country is having 29 different elections. Even the salience of the Pulwama attack in February and national security concerns vary across states and class/caste groups. How the focus on national security plays out will be important, as will be the issue of farmers’ votes. My expectation is that rural India will vote on economic and development related issues and not on national security. But, in the last 10 years, urban worlds have penetrated into the rural areas and I may be wrong, especially if rural voters are as aware of security concerns as their urban counterparts.  I am also interested in the women’s vote and voter-turnout, especially across states such as Bihar and Rajasthan where women’s literacy rates are lower. Initial indications suggest that we may be witnessing a third ‘gender revolution’ in voting across many states, and that is quite significant if it is confirmed by the 2019 participation data. While the first democratic revolution refers to the establishment of democracy procedures and elections in the 1950s, the second democratic revolution refers to a phenomenon that started in the 1990s when Dalits, groups termed “other backward classes/castes,” and the poor began to vote in equal or higher measure than the educated and well-off. India’s democratic journey seems to be becoming deeper and wider. I will be also watching how various Dalit subgroups vote. A fascinating social and economic revolution underway within larger groups such as “Dalits” and “Muslims” will affect this election. Modi’s effort to appeal to a broader cross-class and cross-state national citizenry—what observers call the Modi factor—is so relevant precisely because India’s lived reality is local, and regional. Most Indians also think in multiple ways—are bilingual for example— as residents of their state, but also embody caste, economic sensibilities, and citizenship of India. In sum, Indian elections will not be boring or predictable. My book about India’s rise on the world stage, Our Time Has Come: How India Is Making Its Place in the World, was published by Oxford University Press in January 2018. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa. Or like me on Facebook (fb.me/ayresalyssa) or Instagram (instagr.am/ayresalyssa).
  • India
    National Security and the Indian Elections
    India begins elections for its lower house on April 11. This will be the world’s largest democratic exercise, and will last through May 19, with ballots counted on May 23. I had the chance to ask Dr. Tanvi Madan, director of the India Project and fellow in the Project on International Order and Strategy at the Brookings Institution, as well as author of the forthcoming book Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped U.S.-India Relations During the Cold War, about the role and importance of national security issues in Indian elections. Our exchange, the first of a series of Q & As on the Indian elections, appears below. The second is here, the third here, and the fourth here.  We are used to thinking about Indian elections revolving around bread-and-butter development issues. But given the recent India-Pakistan tensions, it looks like Prime Minister Narendra Modi is bringing national security into his campaigning. How much have national security issues resonated with voters historically—or at least how much do we know about that with previous elections? We do know that elections affect Indian foreign and security policy. For example, they have an impact on defense spending and trade policy. However, it is difficult to make definitive statements about the reverse—i.e. the effect of national security on voting behavior. Some cite the Bharatiya Janata Party [BJP]–led government’s “surgical strike” across the line of control in Kashmir in 2016 as benefiting the party in the 2017 state elections in Uttar Pradesh [UP], but it is difficult to disaggregate the impact of that from other factors. Further back, the 1971 India-Pakistan war came after Indira Gandhi had already made gains in the general election earlier that year. Her party did make gains in the state elections held in 1972, including in head-to-head contests with the BJP’s predecessor, and the war did significantly contribute to her image as a “strong” leader. In terms of recent crises, the October 1999 general election took place three months after the Kargil crisis. The BJP-led coalition returned to power, but the party did not gain additional seats and lost vote share. Both of these could be attributed to the party contesting fewer seats, but its seat tally in its stronghold of UP was also halved. What we do not know is whether the party would have suffered greater losses had the Kargil crisis not happened. The 2009 general election took place less than five months after the 2008 Mumbai attack. The opposition criticized Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s [Indian National] Congress party–led coalition government for not retaliating. Nonetheless, the coalition was reelected, with the Congress party winning an additional sixty-one seats. However, these instances might not be predictive of the impact of national security issues in the upcoming election. This poll takes place just a few weeks after the India-Pakistan crisis, while the 1999 and 2009 elections took place a few months after the crises, by which time it is possible the effect dissipated. Why do you think Prime Minister Modi has been highlighting the national security element during the campaign? Whether or not it drives votes, the Indian Air Force [IAF] strike in Balakot after the Pulwama terrorist attack has helped shift the campaign narrative—and potentially the momentum. After the Congress party had made gains in recent state elections, the BJP was on the back foot. While the general election was still considered Narendra Modi’s to lose, criticism about his government’s economic performance dominated the discourse, as did the question of whether or not he had delivered on the promise of acche din (good days). With the IAF strike, as well as an anti-satellite test, the BJP has gone from playing defense to offense, arguing that it has delivered on the international element of acche din. The party has cited both of these developments as demonstrations of strength. And BJP leaders have used them in both “hope” and “fear” arguments: on the one hand claiming that they have gained India respect on the world stage, and on the other suggesting that Modi is the indispensable chowkidar, or “guardian,” and—in an après moi, le deluge sense—that India’s security would be threatened without him. At the very least, the BJP will be hoping that the national security case helps drive turnout, counters the anti-incumbency factor, or gives voters unhappy with the party for nonperformance in other arenas a permission slip to vote for it.   The party will likely also hope that this focus can help deflect the Congress party’s attacks on the BJP for not doing enough to build security capabilities or to counter China. Unlike during the 2014 campaign, Modi has himself not targeted Beijing during the campaign and instead has sought to stabilize relations with China over the last year. How do you view foreign policy and national security across India’s various political parties? Are there strong commonalities—a core set of principles that transcend parties, or are there differences among parties? The general trend of foreign and national security policy has tended to be fairly consistent. For example, India’s diversification strategy—i.e. maintaining a diversified portfolio of partners while avoiding alliances, in part to preserve as much as decision-making space as possible—has found support from major political parties. Leaders since Jawaharlal Nehru have emphasized that foreign policy needs to serve domestic objectives first and foremost. And while opposition parties do criticize many foreign policies, they often end up following them when they find themselves in office.   The BJP has tended to portray itself as more hawkish on foreign policy, and criticized the Congress party for taking a softer approach toward China and Pakistan. But it, too, has made overtures to both countries when in power. Parties have sometimes emphasized different countries or issues. The BJP, for instance, made clear that it would bring India’s relations with Israel out into the open. It also highlights cultural and diaspora elements in foreign policy in different ways than the Congress party. Rhetorically, it has sometimes suggested a more assertive approach towards building partnerships and capabilities, but its track record has not matched that—arguably because there are different views within the party about India’s strategic and economic engagement with the world. India’s regional parties, in turn, pay attention to other specific issues. How do foreign policy priorities show up at the subnational level—are there some states or regions for which foreign policy matters more than others? The subnational level matters because, for one, parties operating there are key to coalitions at the center. Border states in India have tended to care about foreign policy issues related to the nearest neighbors for various reasons. For instance, Tamil Nadu takes an interest in developments in Sri Lanka, especially the fate of Sri Lankan Tamils. States bordering Nepal take an interest in political developments in that country. West Bengal has watched relations with Bangladesh closely in order to guard its territorial and water rights. Assam and some of the other northeastern states care about the impact of policy toward Bangladesh on migration. Thus, one thing to watch is whether and how the Citizenship Amendment Bill that the BJP supports might affect votes in this region where the party has sought to make gains. While many of the party’s supporters back it on religious grounds, there have been protests that the bill will change the ethnic makeup of the region. Also in the northeast, Arunachal Pradesh does follow carefully the state of relations with China. Similarly, Jammu and Kashmir’s interests are implicated in relations with Pakistan. There are other foreign policy elements that affect interests at the subnational level, but we do not have definitive evidence of their impact. These include economic policy. Some states, particularly in India’s south, have benefited significantly from more liberal trade and investment policies. The approach toward the safety of the diaspora, which contributes remittances, is another element that particular states might care about. For instance, Kerala sends thousands of workers to the Middle East, and Andhra Pradesh and Telangana send thousands of students to the United States—some of whom were recently arrested for enrolling in a fake university. Finally, while we do not know how it affects voting behavior, it is worth noting that a significant number of soldiers in India’s military and paramilitary forces come from states in India’s electorally crucial northern belt. Do you see prospects for change in the trajectory of U.S.-India relations depending on the election outcome? Over the last two decades, there has been more continuity than change in the trajectory of U.S.-India relations across BJP and Congress party-led governments. Structural realities—and the need for the U.S. as a security and economic partner—have meant that parties in power have tended to favor closer U.S.-India ties, even if they complain about them when in opposition. The BJP, for instance, opposed the nuclear deal when in opposition, but the government it has led over these past few years has supported closer defense cooperation with the U.S. The Congress party, now in the opposition benches, has looked askance at some of this, but, when in power, the government it led had signed a number of defense deals with the U.S., and initiated both a trilateral with Japan and the quadrilateral that also included Australia. The election outcome could affect the pace of the U.S.-India relationship. Much will depend on what policies a new government follows with regard to defense and trade, as well as vis-à-vis third countries like China and Russia. If a new government takes a protectionist economic line, does not follow through on building defense capabilities, doubles down on defense deals with Russia, or pursues a more substantive reset with China, then it could lead to divergence or friction in the U.S.-India relationship. There are other factors that could shape the relationship—and even change its trajectory—including India’s links with Iran and Russia (and even Venezuela), and whether or not it finds itself subject to associated U.S. sanctions. Also crucial will be whether there is a U.S.-China trade deal and whether it serves to alleviate competition between those two powers—that will fuel Indian concerns about American reliability or a U.S.-China condominium. One unknown is if a coalition government results from the Indian election that is more like a third front rather than a BJP- or Congress-led coalition. In that case, many expect the permanent bureaucracy to be the crucial actor—that would lead to continuity but also, perhaps, caution. What will you be watching most closely during India’s 2019 general election? I’ll be watching two things in particular. First, turnout. There’s been much discussion of the decline of democracy globally. And while elections are not the only indication of democratic health, they can tell us something about how voters view their political systems and incumbents. In 2014, there was a record-setting 66 percent turnout in India. Will we see a repeat? What proportion of India’s 130 million first-time voters will go to the poll? What about female voters, who have been increasingly seen by political parties as a key constituency to target? Second, I will be watching to see what lessons the parties learn from the elections. The issues that they think resonate on the campaign trail can shape the policies they follow in office. The opposite is also true. Analysts think that one lesson the BJP has internalized—even though there isn’t definitive data about the link—is that they lost their reelection bid in 2004 because they were too focused on economic reform, and that that has shaped the party's caution in this regard in the Modi years. My book about India’s rise on the world stage, Our Time Has Come: How India Is Making Its Place in the World, was published by Oxford University Press in January 2018. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa. Or like me on Facebook (fb.me/ayresalyssa) or Instagram (instagr.am/ayresalyssa).
  • India
    India’s Vast National Elections: What to Know
    India is set to begin a mammoth six-week voting exercise to elect a new parliament amid high unemployment, conflict with Pakistan, and debates about its future as a secular nation.
  • U.S. Foreign Policy
    Continuity and Change: The Trump Administration’s South Asia Policies
    Since President Donald J. Trump assumed office, U.S. foreign policy has seen major shake-ups: withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Paris accord, a dramatic down-to-the-wire renegotiation of North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement, a trade war with China, and tensions in the longstanding transatlantic alliance. By contrast, South Asia has been one region where Trump’s declared policies have hewed in great part to those of prior administrations, especially in the defense and strategic realms. In 2017, the Trump administration unveiled two new foreign policy frameworks in which South Asia featured centrally. One, the “South Asia Strategy,” laid out an approach to the long-running war in Afghanistan, taking into account the importance of Pakistan and India to success there. The second, the administration’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy, officially expanded the geographic scope of the Asian region to include India, and argued for a rules-based order in the region. Both of these strategies display strong continuity with those of previous U.S. administrations. In trade and international economic policy, however, the Trump administration breaks sharply with traditional American approaches. Trump’s international economic fixation on reciprocity has unearthed tariffs from the farthest reaches of the U.S. policy toolbox, to the alarm of many. India, as the largest economy in South Asia by far, bears the brunt of the new American balance sheet approach to economic ties, and as a result, New Delhi has found itself caught in the crosshairs—even on trade matters which have figured little if at all in prior years. While the U.S.-India economic relationship has a long list of frictions at the best of times, the new Trump trade policies have introduced fresh stresses that run the risk of spilling over into other, more positive, aspects of the relationship. To read more about the threads of continuity and change in the Trump administration’s approach to South Asia, see my longer essay in Seminar (India), now available online here. My book about India’s rise on the world stage, Our Time Has Come: How India Is Making Its Place in the World, was published by Oxford University Press in January 2018. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa. Or like me on Facebook (fb.me/ayresalyssa) or Instagram (instagr.am/ayresalyssa).
  • Kashmir
    Will South Asia Ever See Peace?
    Play
    As India-Pakistan tensions reach new heights, panelists examine the current situation, each country’s relationship with Kashmir, and U.S. policy in South Asia.