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Hong Kong

Protests in Hong Kong: Three Things to Know

Pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong feel Beijing has reneged on its guarantees of greater autonomy for the former British colony, says CFR’s Barbara Demick.

Explainer Video with Barbara Demick October 7, 2014
Politics and Government

The U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong: Part of a Trend of Weakness on Democracy

As protests have mounted in Hong Kong, with a possible violent resolution in sight, the U.S. Consulate in the SAR has done little more than issue tepid statements on the demonstrations, which had been largely peaceful and orderly until the past two days. “We do not take sides in the discussion of Hong Kong’s political development, nor do we support and particular individuals or groups involved in it,” the consulate’s most notable statement said. The statement’s anodyne weakness basically suggested that the United States did not care whether the democracy movement succeeded in Hong Kong, or whether Hong Kong people were granted the real universal suffrage and political rights promised them under the 1984 handover agreement. And as the New York Times reported on Saturday, when President Obama briefly met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last week, they discussed a wide range of issues to be examined during Obama’s upcoming trip to Beijing; Hong Kong appeared to be just an afterthought for Obama and clearly would be an afterthought in Obama’s conversations in Beijing. By contrast, even former colonial power Britain, which had in the past been relatively muted in its criticism of Beijing’s strangulation of Hong Kong’s media and political freedoms—British leaders believed their statements would only rebound against Hong Kong democrats, who could be labeled as stooges of the old colonial power—spoke out more openly about the situation in Hong Kong. Last week, Britain’s Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg called the Chinese ambassador to London in for a formal protest about China’s actions in Hong Kong. Clegg further warned that China was repressing political freedoms in Hong Kong at its own risk—that this repression would rebound on China and undermine Hong Kong’s financial stability and prosperity, which are critical to the Chinese economy. These British actions displayed a solid, tough stand that was applauded by many in Hong Kong. The U.S. Consulate’s approach, however, is sadly reminiscent of U.S. embassies’ approaches to repressed political freedoms throughout Southeast Asia over the past five years. After the May 2013 national elections in Malaysia, in which the opposition coalition won the popular vote but was denied control of Parliament through a mix of massive gerrymandering and outright fraud by Malaysia’s long-ruling coalition, the U.S. Embassy in Kuala Lumpur quickly embraced the ruling coalition despite its dubious victory. Other embassies in the Malaysian capital were not so quick to embrace the ruling coalition as winners. Even before the election, many Malaysian opposition politicians and political analysts rued the fact that the U.S. ambassador in Kuala Lumpur at the time had built a personally close relationship with Malaysian Prime Minister Najib tun Razak, making the embassy less of an impartial observer in Malaysian politics. Similarly, after the Obama administration decided to boost relations with Myanmar and to appoint an ambassador to the country, the first U.S. ambassador in Yangon in decades, the embassy in Yangon has been increasingly reluctant to criticize the Myanmar government for its jailing of journalists, see-no-evil approach to the growing attacks on Muslims across the country, and maneuvering to entrench the military in politics after the 2015 elections. Amidst this dispiriting record on democracy and human rights in the region, the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok has been a notable exception, with U.S. Ambassador Kristie Kenney to Thailand clearly condemning Thailand’s May 2014 coup and following up with continuing scrutiny of the Thai junta government’s actions. The consulate in Hong Kong now seems to have realized that its initial statement was almost embarrassingly weak. The New York Times on Saturday reported that the White House press secretary, Josh Earnest, tried to tweak the consulate’s statement, noting that, indeed, the United States still does back “a genuine choice of candidates that are representative of the [Hong Kong] people’s and the [Hong Kong] voters’ will.” Just don’t expect the Obama administration to do anything about it.

Blog Post by Joshua Kurlantzick October 6, 2014 Asia Unbound
Global

The World Next Week: October 2, 2014

Protests in Hong Kong attract growing interest; Brazilians vote for a new president; and the IMF and World Bank hold their annual fall meeting.

Podcast with James M. Lindsay and Robert McMahon October 2, 2014 The World Next Week

China

What Beijing Should Do About Hong Kong

Hong Kong is not Beijing, 2014 is not 1989, and Civic Square is not Tiananmen Square. Still, the images of tens of thousands of Hong Kong Chinese demonstrating in the streets for democratic reform cannot help but bring back memories of a quarter century ago. Like the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations in Beijing, those in Hong Kong are spearheaded by extraordinarily passionate, articulate, and inspiring young leaders. Both movements include Chinese people from all walks of life. And both movements, while at heart represent a call for fuller democracy and more direct political participation, also engage issues of economic well-being and inequities within the system. Of course they are linked in other ways as well: had the 1989 Tiananmen protests turned out differently, there likely would be no need for the 2014 student boycott of their classes and more broadly based Occupy Central demonstrations in Hong Kong. That the two sets of protests twenty-five years apart are not the same, of course, leaves open the hope that the demonstrations underway in Hong Kong will not result in the same violent suppression that befell those in Tiananmen. Hong Kong, unlike Beijing, has a strong recent history of large-scale peaceful demonstrations, and the protestors in Hong Kong include experienced politicians as well as passionate students and citizens. Students in Hong Kong have even received a degree of institutional support from at least one university, the University of Hong Kong, which stated in a letter that it “will be flexible and reasonable in understanding the actions of students and staff who wish to express their strongly held views.” Moreover, Hong Kong’s rule of law will likely afford greater protection to the demonstrators: in the midst of the protests, several student leaders were arrested and then released; in referring to one of them, a judge noted that seventeen-year-old Joshua Wong had already been held longer than was lawful and that there was insufficient cause to keep him further. And yet the question remains: what are the next steps? While various groups within the larger protest movement in Hong Kong have slightly different lists of demands, the resignation of the unpopular Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying and the ability to vote for at least one candidate for chief executive not preselected by Beijing top most people’s lists. Given these reasonably straight-forward demands, Beijing has a number of options. It can: enforce a harsh crackdown in Hong Kong in the hopes that brutally suppressing the protestors will stave off further reform demonstrations; confine the protests to a small area of Hong Kong and hope that they run their course: eventually the students will return to school and the occupy central protestors will return to work; remove Chief Executive C.Y. Leung, who has been a weak and unpopular leader from the outset as a stop-gap; or establish a committee including representatives of various Hong Kong political actors to consider the next stage of suffrage, post-2017. (It could also, of course, decide to grant the protestors their biggest demand—an open slate of candidates determined by universal suffrage for the 2017 election—but this seems well outside the realm of possibility.) None of the options is likely very attractive to the Chinese leadership. All come with not insignificant political and economic costs. No doubt, the government wishes that the Hong Kong activists would simply concede, perhaps following the advice of Tsinghua University Professor Daniel Bell, who suggests that Hong Kong political activists are doing more harm than good. He notes, “The Hong Kong special administrative region is the most important experiment in political reform. But the system assumes that the central government has the ultimate power to determine what works and what doesn’t. If that power is threatened, the experiment may be put to an end. Hong Kong political activists who, willingly or not, harm the relation with Beijing also harm the chance for Hong Kong-style political reform in mainland China.” Of course, Dr. Bell may want to consider that Beijing has already had fifteen years to witness the success of the Hong Kong political experiment and has done nothing to emulate it on the mainland. It hardly seems reasonable to ask the Hong Kong people to keep their interests at bay in the hopes that mainland leaders might suddenly come to appreciate the value of universal suffrage. There is no easy solution—the best outcome for now might be to test the waters by replacing C.Y. Leung not with a lackey of Beijing or a democracy activist but with a politician such as Anson Chan or Christine Loh, who have impeccable political credentials, as well as strong managerial experience. The next three years could then be a test case for what a more independent-minded Hong Kong leader might mean for the island’s relations with the mainland and provide guidance for further revisions to Beijing’s current limited conception of universal suffrage. Hong Kong is not Beijing, and here is hoping that Beijing knows that too.

Blog Post by Elizabeth C. Economy September 29, 2014 Asia Unbound
India

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of September 5, 2014

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Andrew Hill, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Japan reshuffles Cabinet. Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe reshuffled his inner circle on Wednesday, the first such move since he returned to office nearly two years ago. While key members of the previous cabinet, including Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, retained their posts, notable new appointments include a new minister of defense and a newly created post of security legislation minister, as well as five new female ministers. Overall, the move seems to have some popularity with voters, who gave the new cabinet 54.9 percent and 64 percent approval ratings in polls conducted by Kyodo News and the Yomiuri Shimbun, respectively. The reshuffle seems especially favorable to female voters, with 63 percent of female respondents in the Yomiuri’s poll having a positive view of the new cabinet, representing an impressive 18 percent jump over the previous incarnation. 2. Beijing reasserts its grip on Hong Kong elections. The Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress issued restrictive guidelines this week for the election of Hong Kong’s next chief executive in 2017. While selection of the chief executive will shift from a 1,200-member election committee to popular vote, all presumptive nominees must first be unanimously endorsed by the committee and approved by the Chinese government, ensuring Hong Kong’s leader will meet Beijing’s approval. Critics have called Beijing’s new regulations a “fake democracy” that only gives residents an illusion of choice. Others, including the British government, “welcome” the proposal. 3. Al-Qaeda establishes fifth official branch in India. In a video released this week, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri announced the beginning of a new branch of the terrorist group on the Indian subcontinent. The establishment of the branch, Qaedat al-Jihad, represents al-Qaeda’s efforts to increase support among India’s 170 million Muslims, as well as Muslims in Myanmar and Bangladesh. In the video, Zawahri calls for Muslims to rally for the formation of a caliphate, asserting that the subcontinent was previously Muslim territory before the “infidel army” occupied it. Al-Qaeda is also facing intense competition for support with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which has already succeeded in recruiting a number of Indian Muslims to its cause. 4. Australia and India agree to uranium export deal. During a state visit to New Delhi, Australian prime minister Tony Abbott signed an agreement with his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, to allow for the export of Australian uranium to India for power generation. The deal is an appropriate marriage of interests: Australia holds over a third of uranium reserves, while India faces chronic power shortages and depends on fossil fuels for 65 percent of its power. However, some critics of the deal are concerned that the uranium could end up in nuclear weapons, as India is not a signatory of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty; Abbott countered that, “India has an absolutely impeccable non-proliferation record… and India has been a model international citizen.” 5. South Korea and United States announce plans to organize combined wartime division. The division would activate during wartime and provide services such as civilian affairs operations in North Korea and seeking and removing nuclear weapons materials. During peacetime, the troops from each country will train together but live at separate bases. It will first be located in Uijeongbu, north of Seoul, until U.S Forces Korea headquarters move to Pyeongtaek in 2016, part of a long-planned relocation of U.S. forces to locations south of the Han River. The commander of the U.S. Second Infantry Division will lead the new combined division, with a South Korean brigadier general serving as deputy. Bonus: Malaysia Airlines scraps unfortunate “bucket list” ad campaign. Malaysia Airlines launched a promotion asking travelers which places were on their “bucket list”—apparently not realizing that the phrase implies making a list of things to do before you die. Malaysia Airlines is still suffering from negative perceptions after the disappearance of flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in March and a missile brought down flight MH17 while flying over Ukraine in July. The contest was renamed “Win an iPad or Malaysia Airlines flight to Malaysia.”

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound September 5, 2014 Asia Unbound
China

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of February 28, 2014

Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, Charles McClean, Will Piekos, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Hong Kong editor attacked. Kevin Lau, former chief editor of Ming Pao Daily News, was slashed three times in his back and legs by an attacker and accomplice on a motorbike. The attack on Mr. Lau sparked protests and an offer of a one million Hong Kong dollar reward from Ming Pao for any information leading to the arrest of the attacker. Mr. Lau was the center of controversy last month when removed from his editorial role. Hong Kong journalist associations are concerned that Mr. Lau’s removal, alongside the firing of a radio talk show host, are encroachments upon press freedom. While threats and attacks against outspoken Hong Kong journalists are hardly new, the attack on Mr. Lau comes amid increasing fears of mainland China’s widening political and cultural influence over Hong Kong. 2. North Korea test-fires short-range missiles. On February 27, North Korea fired missiles with a range of less than 200 meters off the east coast of North Korea. North Korea has provided no information on the test’s purpose, but such tests are not unusual for North Korea, especially following joint U.S.-South Korea exercises. The U.S.-Republica of Korea Key Resolve and Foal Eagle drills began February 24 and will continue until April 18. One South Korean analyst believes the missile tests are mainly to send a message about the U.S.-South Korea drills as well as being an angered over recent UN Commission of Inquiry report on North Korean human rights abuses. A U.S. State Department spokesperson has urged Pyongyang to “exercise restraint and take steps to improve its relations with its neighbors.” Observers do not believe these tests will trigger a rise in tensions. 3. Thai prime minister faces corruption charges related to rice subsidy; strife continues. Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra is facing charges of negligence over an allegedly corrupt rice subsidy scheme; if convicted, she could be removed from office and face a five-year ban from politics. Under the rice subsidies, instated by the prime minister when she came to power in 2011, the government pledged to buy rice from Thai farmers at 40 to 50 percent above market value. This has pushed Thai rice prices to uncompetitive levels and cost the government $4 billion per year; the government has also been unable to pay farmers back, causing mass protests. Pro-government supporters surrounded the office of the National Anti-Corruption Commission, forcing the hearing to move elsewhere. At the same time, clashes have continued between pro- and anti-government protesters; at least twenty people have died since the protests began in November 2013. 4. Japan announces draft of Basic Energy Plan, includes push to restart reactors. On February 25, the Abe administration unveiled a draft of the Basic Energy Plan, the first national energy policy since the March 2011 disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. While the plan calls for reducing Japan’s dependence on nuclear energy, it does not specify what mix of nuclear/renewables/fossil fuels Japan should rely on for its future energy needs. The plan also urges Japan’s government to push to restart reactors that meet new safety standards. All fifty of Japan’s operable reactors are currently idle, and only two reactors have been restarted since March 2011, though they were shut down again in September 2013 for routine maintenance. Cabinet approval of the draft Basic Energy Plan is expected in March. Bonus: Yorkies are the newest attraction at Pyongyang’s zoo. A pack of miniature Yorkshire terrier dogs are the newest addition to the Capital Zoo in North Korea. The country’s official media agency has already announced that the pups have been taught "several feats." Lonely Planet published an damning account of the zoo last year, saying the animals "look pretty forlorn."

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound February 28, 2014 Asia Unbound

Hong Kong

A Conversation wtih Donald Tsang

Chief Executive Donald Tsang will discuss the latest political developments in Hong Kong as well as the importance of the successful implementation of the unique "One Country, Two Systems" formula for Hong Kong's reunification with Mainland China. Tsang will also share his thoughts on how Hong Kong can continue to prosper as an international gateway to Mainland China and as China's global financial center amid growing competition and global economic uncertainty.

Event with Donald Tsang and Maurice R. Greenberg November 7, 2011
Hong Kong

A Conversation with Donald Tsang

Donald Tsang, chief executive of Hong Kong, reflects on Hong Kong's role in the international community, as well as the economic and health challenges the city has overcome. This meeting is cosponsored with CFR's Asia Program.

Event November 7, 2011
China

Hong Kong Pushes Beijing Back as Democracy Demands Continue

This publication is now archived. What’s the latest in the political sparring between Hong Kong and China?On December 21, Hong Kong politicians turned down a Beijing-backed proposal to reform Hong Kong’s political system. The proposal— for which Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang lobbied hard and ultimately in vain—would have doubled the size of the group that chooses Hong Kong’s leader, to 1,600, and expanded the seats in the legislature to seventy, giving Hong Kong citizens five more directly elected seats. Democracy advocates criticized the reform proposal as a half-measure that did not go far enough, and rejected it for failing to address their most pressing demand: a timetable to universal suffrage for Hong Kong citizens. What else have Hong Kong democracy advocates done recently? They held a massive rally December 4 to push Beijing for greater freedoms. Organizers said 250,000 people marched to demand a timetable for democracy for the territory, although police put the number at 63,000. The protest came after Tsang released his reform plan, which was slammed from the beginning as too timid. Democracy advocates want Beijing to allow one-man-one-vote for Hong Kong, in line with promises they say China made when it took control of the island in 1997 after more than 150 years of British colonial rule. But in the years since the handover, critics say, China has tightened its grip on Hong Kong and delayed indefinitely any plans for full democracy for the island. Specifically, China has denied Hong Kong the right to directly elect a chief executive in 2007 and the entire Legislative Council, Hong Kong’s governing body, in 2008. How has China responded to demands for greater democracy?Chinese officials have rejected the appeals. In April 2004, the Standing Committee of the Communist Party in Beijing ruled out universal suffrage for Hong Kong voters in the 2007 and 2008 elections. The Basic Law, Hong Kong’s constitution, makes direct election of the chief executive an eventual goal, but does not set a date for achieving it. Experts say Chinese officials had pushed Tsang’s modest reforms to appear sympathetic to Hong Kong citizens’ demands for democracy while delaying any true suffrage. Polls show a majority of Hong Kong’s 7 million residents support universal suffrage. "They’re not saying never, they’re just saying not right now," says Elizabeth Economy. How are Hong Kong’s leadership posts currently filled?An 800-member group controlled by Beijing selects the chief executive, and Hong Kong voters directly elect only half of the sixty members of the Legislative Council. The other half are chosen by "functional constituencies"—professional associations, including lawyers and businessmen—that tend to be conservative and pro-Beijing. The two-tiered system of voting is set out in the Basic Law. Why is China resisting pro-democracy efforts?Experts say the Chinese government is focused on maintaining political control even as economic reforms bring prosperity—and new freedom to travel—to millions of mainland Chinese. China permits limited elections at the village level, but the country’s leaders are worried that granting Hong Kong the vote will result in an independent-minded legislature that will break ties with Beijing. In addition, experts say the communist leadership sees universal suffrage as radical political reform that would set a destabilizing precedent. "Other parts of China could see Hong Kong and think, ’If we have large demonstrations, we can have democracy too,’" says Veron Hung, an Asian law and politics expert. "China sees the threat posed by Hong Kong to domestic politics as imminent, and [something] that needs to be dealt with." What is the U.S. position?The United States supports Hong Kong citizens’ demands for a timetable for democracy. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said December 6, "We believe it is important to achieve universal suffrage in Hong Kong as soon as possible, that the people of Hong Kong are ready for democracy, and that the sooner a timetable for achieving universal suffrage is established, the better," he said. How is Hong Kong currently governed?The Basic Law guarantees "a high degree of autonomy" to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region for fifty years and enshrines the "one country, two systems" idea. This is the notion that traditionally capitalistic Hong Kong belongs to China, a country with a communist leadership and a socialist economy. Chinese officials have said "one country, two systems" does not mean two states with complete autonomy, but only two different systems: socialism for China and capitalism for Hong Kong. Tsang is a charismatic former finance minister who was elected in July—with Beijing’s approval—after the resignation of his predecessor, Tung Chee-hwa. He’s profiled here by the BBC. Tsang, although still popular with the Hong Kong public, is now bearing some of their anger at Beijing’s denial of reforms. What is the Basic Law?The Basic Law was negotiated by Britain and China in preparation for the 1997 handover. It claims Hong Kong as "an inalienable part" of the People’s Republic of China, but gives Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy and legislative and judicial rights not shared by mainland Chinese. These include the right of Hong Kong courts to have the final say over legal matters in the territory, the island’s right to continue having a capitalist economic system, and the rights of Hong Kong residents to free speech, free assembly, and protection from unlawful detention. Private property rights, limited voting rights, and human rights for citizens are also protected in the Basic Law, among other "fundamental rights and freedoms." Under the Basic Law, Beijing controls Hong Kong’s defense and foreign affairs, and the Hong Kong government has control over only external issues relating to trade. For example, Hong Kong on its own is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Hong Kong joined the WTO January 1, 1995, nearly seven years before China, which joined December 11, 2001. How can the Basic Law be amended?It can only be amended through a process of consultation that ends with the National People’s Congress. Article 159 of the Basic Law says: "The power of amendment of this Law shall be vested in the National People’s Congress." Other groups can offer amendments to the law—after winning approval from a two-thirds majority of regional deputies, two-thirds of the Legislative Council, and the Hong Kong chief executive—but the ultimate decision is with China’s Standing Committee. In its April 2004 ruling the Standing Committee effectively reversed the order of events needed to amend the Basic Law, says Adam Segal, the Maurice R. Greenberg senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. That decision effectively said "reform cannot be initiated except by the Standing Committee," he says. Who has the right to interpret the Basic Law?China. The Basic Law’s Article 158 says, "The power of interpretation of this Law shall be vested in the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress." Chinese officials have said their rulings limiting the right of interpretation to Beijing were not clampdowns, but merely clarifications of the law in accordance with their rights in Article 158. Does China reject all political reform?Not necessarily. Some experts stress that while Beijing authorities are approaching reform cautiously, they are not completely against it. "They’re not saying never, they’re just saying not right now," says Elizabeth Economy, the C.V. Starr senior fellow and director of Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Have Hong Kong democracy advocates been able to mobilize significant numbers of people?Yes. They have proved consistently able to bring out crowds for protests, including:July 1, 2003: 500,000 people protest to demand democracy.January 1, 2004: 100,000 people protest on New Year’s Day.June 4, 2004: 80,000 people observe a candlelight vigil on the anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.July 1, 2004: 500,000 people come out on the anniversary of Hong Kong’s independence to protest China’s decision to delay universal suffrage. July 1, 2005: 15,000 people protest on the anniversary of independence.December 4, 2005: 250,000 people (police say 63,000) mobilize to demand a timetable for full democracy.

Backgrounder by Esther Pan December 8, 2005