Bangladesh

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Gabriella Meltzer, Gabriel Walker, and Pei-Yu Wei look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Corruption and combat thwart counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan. The first poppy harvest of the year is just beginning in Helmand, Afghanistan—by far the largest source of opium and heroin in the world—and very little can be done about it. Since 2002 the United States has spent over $8 billion on counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan, including eradicating over six thousand acres of poppy fields in Helmand alone over the past two years, but this year there will be no effort to do so. According to Maj. Rahmatullah Alokozai, the security chief of Afghanistan’s Ministry of Counternarcotics, now that the Taliban completely controls more than half of Helmand it is too dangerous to attempt eradication efforts. Some believe that Maj. Alokozai’s unwillingness to try is a sign that he stands to profit from poppy revenues, as many other Afghan government officials have in some way in the past, by canceling this year’s eradication. Maj. Gen. Abdul Jabar Qahraman, Afghani President Ashraf Ghani’s envoy for Helmand, stated that the situation there is so difficult because all the combatants have a vested interest in the success of the drug trade: “The war and the fighting in Helmand is a tool for everybody—they’re making millions off it.” 2. Bangladesh experiences “largest mass poisoning of a population in history”: A new report released by Human Rights Watch on Wednesday reveals that 20 million Bangladeshis have been poisoned by arsenic in their drinking water. According to the organization’s findings, 43,000 people die annually from arsenic-related illnesses, including liver, kidney, bladder, and skin cancer, as well as heart disease, developmental defects, and diabetes. In fact, “between 1 and 5 million of the 90 million children estimated to be born between 2000 and 2030 will eventually die” from arsenic exposure. Arsenic is a naturally occurring chemical in groundwater, and is found in large quantities in countries throughout the Asian continent. Arsenic poisoning in Bangladesh was first discovered in 1995 by researchers who found that millions of tubewells provided by international donors in the 1970s and 1980s as safe substitutes to bacteria-infested surface water were harboring the poison. Today, there are an estimated 10 million shallow tubewells located throughout the country intended to provide clean water to the country’s roughly 66 percent rural population suffering from poor human development outcomes. The Bangladeshi government is facing harsh criticism for its irresponsiveness to the crisis, where “nepotism and neglect by Bangladeshi officials” are to blame and new, non-contaminated wells are only being dug in convenient locations for family, friends, and political supporters, rather than those most impacted by arsenic. 3. Relatives of top Chinese officials identified in Panama Papers. Among the 14,153 individuals connected to Mossack Fonseca, the Panamanian law firm known for helping clients establish offshore accounts, relatives of at least eight former or current members of China’s elite Politburo Standing Committee have been identified. These individuals include Chinese President Xi Jinping’s brother-in-law, Deng Jiagui; Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli’s son-in-law, Lee Shing Put; and propaganda head Liu Yunshan’s daughter-in-law, Jia Liqing. Deng’s offshore accounts had been closed or dormant by the time Xi took office. Relatives of officials are far from the only Chinese citizens to hold offshore accounts. Mossack Fonseca’s largest number of offices in any country worldwide were in China and its most active office was in Hong Kong. Approximately 29 percent of the firm’s companies came from the greater China region. While offshore accounts are not illegal in China, the number of political elites who hold such accounts may speak to a mounting sense of domestic political or economic insecurity. Key words linking the Panama Papers to the Chinese leadership were quickly censored, and it seems unlikely that these new revelations will significantly affect Xi’s ongoing anticorruption campaign. 4. Abe government says Article 9 does not prohibit ownership of nuclear weapons. The administration of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stated that the Japanese constitution does not explicitly prohibit the country from possessing nuclear weapons. The position of the government was made clear in a written response last Friday to inquiries from two members of Diet, the Japanese parliament. The inquiry stems from a statement made by Cabinet member and the director-general of the Cabinet Legislation Bureau, Yusuke Yokobatake, on March 18 this year at a House of Councilors’ Budget Committee meeting, in response to a question asked by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan. Yokobatake noted that the administration does not think that “the use of all kinds of nuclear weapons is prohibited under the Constitution.” The government’s position on nuclear weapons is in line with that of previous prime ministers. Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda said in 1978 that the constitution does not “absolutely prohibit” Japan’s having nuclear weapons. However, he also emphasized that Japan should abide by the three non-nuclear principles raised in the 1960s by Prime Minister Eisaku Sato. Similarly, in the written response, the administration highlighted its firm commitment to the same principles. 5. Chinese media take a new approach. The Paper, a trendy online Chinese media outlet, launched a new English-language news site called Sixth Tone this week. Sixth Tone promises to cover stories that other outlets—whether foreign or state-owned—miss, mimicking The Paper, which has gained millions of readers since it launched in 2014, most of them among China’s “post-90s” generation. Both papers are a far cry from traditional state media outlets, whose articles range from boring to pointless to blatantly propagandist. In both its tone and the topics they choose to write about, The Paper has been willing to skirt much closer to lines the Chinese government does not permit news outlets to cross. The website has won accolades for deep investigations into corruption and official malpractice. Most recently, a story The Paper broke last month on tens of millions of dollars’ worth of improperly stored vaccines has spurred public debate in China. However, there are some topics The Paper (and presumably Sixth Tone) won’t touch. Shanghai United Media Group, which owns Sixth Tone and The Paper, is owned by the propaganda department of the Shanghai Communist Party Committee. At the end of the day, he who pays the piper calls the tune. Bonus: Viral ad about China’s “leftover women” tugs at netizens’ heartstrings. This week, a four-minute, documentary-style video entitled the “Marriage Market Takeover” sent emotional ripples throughout the Chinese web. Commissioned by the Japanese skin care company SK-II and part of a “a global campaign to inspire and empower women to shape their destiny,” the video focuses on the plight of so-called leftover women in China, or women over twenty-seven who may face intense social and familial pressure to get married. Leta Hong Fincher, the author of a book on China’s leftover women, stated that single Chinese women are at a “turning point,” and beginning to push back against the social stigma of being single and traditional conceptions of marriage. Though some on the Chinese web poke fun at the family pressure that young women face, for others, like one twenty-seven-year-old woman who attempted suicide last month because of marriage pressure, it is deadly serious.

Ashlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, Gabriel Walker, and Pei-Yu Wei look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Bangladeshi bank chief resigns after $101 million cyber theft. The governor of Bangladesh’s central bank stepped down in the wake of a financial heist involving hackers, casinos, and multiple Asian nations. In early February, $81 million were transferred electronically from Bangladesh’s Federal Reserve Bank of New York account to the Philippines, mainly to accounts at the Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation. The funds were eventually laundered through casinos, which are not required to adhere to some of the nation’s money-laundering regulations. Hackers also attempted other transactions, including one to Sri Lanka for $20 million, which was stopped after a typo in the transfer request raised alarms. The crime has sparked a debate between officials in Bangladesh and at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York over culpability, with Bangladesh threatening to sue the New York Fed to get the money back, since the Fed did not confirm transfers made with the Bangladeshi central bank’s SWIFT codes. The Fed has maintained that it followed appropriate procedures and that its systems remain secure. 2. Another district falls to the Taliban in Afghanistan. A district of Afghanistan’s southern Helmand Province fell the Taliban this past Tuesday, making an important addition to the insurgent-controlled area. Government forces fled the government center in Khan Deshin after a firefight that lasted from Monday night until five in the morning on Tuesday. After Tuesday, the Taliban has overthrown the government centers in five of fourteen districts in Helmand Province. At least two additional districts have large areas of under Taliban control, while government forces are still in those government centers. In at least four other districts, the Taliban is considered to be very active. By many calculations, more than half of the province is now under insurgent control. 3. There’s money to be made in China’s aging. That’s the bet that Bain Capital is making, at least. The company announced this week that it had purchased a controlling stake in Asia Pacific Medical Group, a medical-services provider that operates seven hospitals and twenty-two clinics throughout China and Southeast Asia, according to the company’s website. China is aging rapidly—by 2050, the country’s median age will be forty-nine and 26 percent of the population will be over the age of sixty-five—compounding its already challenging demographic problems. The Chinese government is struggling to respond. In October 2015, the government ended the one-child policy. And late last month, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced it would release a plan next year to raise the retirement age by 2022, likely to counteract a looming funding shortage for the state’s pension commitments. 4. Trump sparks alarm in Japan. As polls opened this Tuesday for primaries in five states, the Japanese government is faced with the possibility of its closest trading partner and security ally electing Donald Trump as president. Having criticized Japan on his campaign trail for manipulating the yen and hurting U.S. employment, and for “playing unfairly” on defense, Trump’s remarks have led to analysts noting that due to the public sentiment he has stirred up, Japan-U.S. ties could suffer even if Trump were not nominated or elected. Japanese media have become increasingly critical of Trump, with one column proclaiming, “Trump’s Japan-bashing shows why he’s unfit to lead America.” Originally entertained by Trump’s campaign, Japanese officials now find themselves facing the challenge of identifying the right moment to step in and correct the misunderstandings caused by Trump’s statements, as they fear that rushed correction of Trump’s statements may backfire. Japan is not the only country that has started to hit back. China, another country that Trump has often targeted, ran an opinion piece in the state-owned Global Times newspaper this week that labeled Trump as “big-mouthed” and a “clown,” and compared his rise to those of Mussolini and Hitler. 5. Argentine coast guard sinks Chinese fishing boat. On Wednesday, in coastal waters around 750 miles south of Buenos Aires, Argentina’s coast guard sank a Chinese fishing boat operating illegally in the country’s exclusive economic zone. According to reports, the Chinese trawler responded to initial warning shots by shutting off its lights and trying to ram the Argentine ship, prompting the latter to fire defensive shots and sink the Chinese vessel. Four crew members were detained, and twenty-eight more were rescued by nearby Chinese ships. The confrontation was a rare occurrence, as Chinese fishing vessels are typically cooperative with the Argentine coast guard. China has subsequently demanded an investigation into the dispute to ensure the safety and rights of Chinese fishermen if similar incidents should ever occur in the future. China has the world’s largest fishing fleet, with nearly 2,500 “distant-water” vessels operating around the world far from Chinese coastal waters. Bonus: A transplanted Afghan bazaar offers artisans a receptive audience in Washington, D.C. Potters, carpenters, rug weavers, jewelers, and a host of other Afghan artisans are setting up shop at the Smithsonian Institution for the next eleven months. Afghan artisans will have the opportunity to share their work in a recreated bazaar environment as part of the Turquoise Mountain: Artists Transforming Afghanistan exhibit. Turquoise Mountains is a break from traditional museum exhibits and intended to be an all-sensory experience based on the “IPOP” exhibit elements—ideas, people, objects, and physical. In addition to offering a unique museum experience, the exhibit also provides a platform for the artisans to renew global interest in the old traditions of the Silk Road.

Emerging Voices features contributions from scholars and practitioners highlighting new research, thinking, and approaches to development challenges. This post is from Sarah Labowitz (@SarahLabo), codirector of the NYU Stern Center for Business and Human Rights. Here, she explains why the time is right for improving factory conditions in Bangladesh, and what can be done to protect workers.  A deadly collapse at the Rana Plaza factory just outside Dhaka, Bangladesh killed almost 1,200 garment workers in a single morning in April 2013. The tragedy shone a bright light on the country’s widespread labor rights enforcement failures. Now more than two years later, millions of workers continue to work in unsafe factories. Pressure to improve conditions in Bangladesh’s garment sector has largely come from outside the country–from consumers, international clothing brands, foreign governments, and development organizations. Yet finally a confluence of factors may force Bangladesh’s domestic factory owners to change. Rise of low-cost competitors: Bangladesh lives off of its apparel manufacturing. As the world’s second largest garment producer after China, the industry comprises 18 percent of the nation’s GDP and 80 percent of its exports. But in the last year, Myanmar and Ethiopia have entered the low-wage garment market, and Vietnam will benefit from lower production costs under the newly-agreed-upon Trans-Pacific Partnership. These nations could easily chip away at Bangladesh’s market share, threatening its dominant position. Deteriorating security, driven by Islamic extremism: In the last six months, violent attacks by homegrown extremist groups and the Islamic State killed four atheist bloggers and two foreign aid workers in Bangladesh. After Cesare Tavella, an Italian aid worker, was shot and killed in downtown Dhaka while out for a jog in September, foreign buyers have started to pull their expat staff and are requiring factory owners to provide armed security guards for buying visits. The precautions add costs for suppliers while threats reinforce an image of Bangladesh as an undesirable and unstable place to do business. With increasing demand for “eco” and “slow” fashion, Bangladesh is perceived as an unsustainable sourcing destination: Adding to Bangladesh’s history of anti-union activity, since the 1990s the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) has lodged four separate complaints with the U.S. government about failures to adhere to labor rights standards. Despite millions of dollars of investment after Rana Plaza, the perception remains that workers still face serious threats to their safety and dignity at work, deterring ethically-minded companies from manufacturing there. This combination of domestic instability and external competition threatens the Bangladeshi garment industry and its broader economy unless factory owners push for meaningful reforms. Making Bangladesh’s garment sector safe and sustainable for the long term will require significant effort in three areas: An honest accounting of how many factories are producing for the export market. As it stands, no one is sure how many factories are manufacturing for export. The government says it has inspected “more than 80 percent” of 1,475 export-oriented factories. The Center for Business and Human Rights at NYU Stern estimates that the total number is closer to 7,000. Solutions to making factories safer must be based on a credible understanding of the problem’s scope. An assessment of the true costs of upgrading, relocating, and overseeing an expanded number of factories, many of which are small enterprises. Remediation efforts to date have focused on large factories that tend to have direct relationships with foreign brands. But small factories are an essential part of the industry, and there are a lot of them. A group including international experts and local owners should assess the costs of the resources, support, and oversight that would be required to make these factories safe places to work for the approximately three million workers employed in them. Dividing responsibility for these costs among foreign brands, leading local factories, governments, and development and aid organizations. No single actor can underwrite the significant costs of upgrading Bangladesh’s garment sector. Local and international participants should share the costs. Detroit provides a useful model, in which the public-private Blight Removal Taskforce successfully surveyed the city’s problem, developed a blueprint for addressing it, and raised public and private funds to meet the $800 million price tag of clearing blighted structures. Bangladesh has the potential to be a good-news story about the possibility of globalization delivering benefits to low-wage workers, even in states with weak governance. Yet changes in the way the apparel supply chain works will have to come from within.

From the day he assumed office, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made clear his priority on establishing strong ties across the South Asian region. His open invitation to the leaders of all the South Asian countries to attend his inauguration set the tone for a foreign policy focused on building economic ties and regional connectivity, a pragmatic bid to overcome South Asia’s longstanding problem as one of the least economically integrated regions in the world. Initial Indian diplomacy with Bangladesh and Nepal helped deliver gains toward a more consolidated South Asian region, at peace and focused on development and economics. Political change in Sri Lanka ended the divisive Rajapaksa era, one of increased tensions with India, and Colombo’s new government immediately expanded ties—with a strong trade component—with India. The South Asian Area of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in November 2014 resulted in region-wide agreements on transportation connectivity, an important infrastructure step to enhancing economic ties. More than a year and a half later, however, political upheavals in Nepal, Bangladesh, and Maldives have disrupted progress in these countries. It is worth adding, though is of no particular surprise, that India’s efforts to establish trade and connectivity with Pakistan have not been successful. This is due to Pakistan’s own internal problems, but nonetheless impinges upon the broader regional goal. This post looks at where things stand following recent upheavals in the region. In short, instead of a larger area of growing economic cooperation, the narrative has shifted to serious political and security problems. Nepal: India and Nepal share an open border, allowing completely free trade and movement of citizens. Last fall, it appeared that after a highly successful bilateral visit, and then a successful SAARC summit in Kathmandu, Modi had cemented a positive era for India-Nepal ties. But the past six weeks have led to an ever-deepening crisis in New Delhi’s relations with Kathmandu, linked to Indian unhappiness over the new Nepali constitution, unveiled at the end of September. Nepal’s Madhesis, who live along the India-Nepal border, feel the new constitution does not adequately protect their rights. Madhesi protests along the border have been underway for weeks, and Indian diplomats have been straightforward with their objections to Nepal’s constitution, reportedly pressing for seven amendments. In October fuel trucks from India stopped entering Nepal, which Nepalis are united in calling a deliberate blockade (the Indian external affairs ministry has rejected that claim), the result of which led to fuel shortages and rationing across Nepal. By the end of October, Nepal had turned to China to supply fuel. The Indian government has come under criticism for “losing Nepal.” As of the first week in November, relations between Kathmandu and New Delhi were tense, and an Indian citizen was killed by Nepali police fire. And in an unprecedented move—India generally does not make extensive public criticism of other countries—India critiqued Nepal’s human rights record on November 4 in the UN Human Rights Council universal periodic review of Nepal. Bangladesh: New Delhi’s ties with Dhaka have strengthened over the past year and a half, most especially with the historic completion of the Indo-Bangladesh land boundary agreement. The previous Congress-led government in India had tried to regularize the border, but parliamentary objections from the then-opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (not to mention protest from the state government of West Bengal) thwarted legislation. Thankfully, once in power the BJP government chose to advance this bill. Tens of thousands of citizens are now able to live in regularized territory, not “enclaves” surrounded extraterritorially, and Dhaka and New Delhi have moved ahead on transshipment ties—including a new cross-border trucking agreement for cargo in specific “corridors.” But internal political upheaval and terrorism attacks in Dhaka could slow down this positive progress due to concerns about safety in Bangladesh. Assassinations of secular bloggers back in the spring first made international headlines. At the end of September and early October alarming assassinations of two foreigners took place in quick succession—the first, of an Italian aid worker, and the second, a Japanese farmer working on agriculture in Bangladesh. A bomb tore through a Shi’a procession in Dhaka on October 24. The self-proclaimed Islamic State took responsibility for these killings, but the Bangladeshi government has rejected this idea, and stated instead that the violence must be the work of domestic opposition. Hacking attacks on Bangladeshi publishers last weekend have further added to the climate of concern. To what extent these terrorist attacks will affect commerce is not yet clear, but they cannot be helpful. Bangladesh’s own domestic security challenges now top headline news rather than reports of economic progress. Maldives: An archipelago nation with only around 350,000 citizens, the Maldives economy is a small part of South Asia’s regional economic connectivity agenda. But its strategic location in the Indian Ocean sea lanes makes it a crucial partner. Its government has been mired in domestic political problems for years. After a November 2013 election in which former President Mohamed Nasheed led in the first voting round but narrowly lost in a runoff and graciously conceded, the Maldivian government has jailed him, prosecuted him in a kangaroo court trial, and convicted him on absurd charges of terrorism. The political situation in the Maldives has deteriorated further. The former vice president Ahmed Adeeb now stands accused of trying to assassinate the president, resulting in Adeeb’s arrest and later impeachment on November 5. On November 4 Maldives authorities declared a state of emergency for thirty days. * * * These are all significant setbacks to a focus on broader regional connectivity and a forward-looking trade agenda. How New Delhi handles the security implications and political landmines in its ties with these countries in the coming months will be a test of Modi’s strategic ambitions for South Asia, as well as an illustration of how a rising India will exercise power in the neighborhood. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is in Washington for long-awaited consultations with U.S. President Barack Obama. Press reports in the week preceding the visit flagged the possibility of a limited “civil nuclear deal” under discussion as a gambit to persuade Pakistan to stop developing battlefield tactical nuclear weapons, but that conversation ended when Pakistani officials told the media that “Islamabad will not accept limits on its use of small tactical nuclear weapons.” The strategic transaction from the Sharif-Obama meeting now appears, echoing the hoary past, to be another tranche of F16 fighter jets, only the latest in a long cascade of questionable hardware sales with unclear counterterror utility. Does anyone benefit from this exchange? It is hard to see any value to Pakistani citizens, apart from the limited coterie of military officials who would welcome such hardware. But F16s are not typically the first military resource to deal with terrorists, including those in urban environments, and tackling terrorism is Pakistan’s most urgent priority. The United States has provided F16s, and upgrades to them, to Islamabad for decades, but Pakistan remains a partner that has not fully acted against terrorists; designated individuals under UN sanctions continue to live openly in Pakistan. Sharif’s visit this week has brought with it some commentary on how U.S. reliance on the Pakistani military has undermined the health of its civilian institutions over decades. This is surely an inarguable point. What has not been the subject of greater focus is what Pakistan’s “garrison state” civil-military imbalance has meant for the well-being of its citizens. The answer is grim. Usually it is difficult to assess a “what might have been” scenario for a country, for every place has its own unique situation and history. But the fact that Bangladesh, the East Wing of Pakistan until 1971, has  charted out a different course in human development over the past forty-plus years offers the best opportunity to see a “living counterfactual”—the policies Pakistan could have chosen but did not. Pakistan continues to overinvest in the military and underinvest in the human development areas so crucial for creating a strong, healthy, productive society—and the end result shows up in lower development indicators in crucial areas. The UN Human Development Index (HDI) tallies a great deal of data, and the comparison across several indicators for Bangladesh and Pakistan is instructive. In the comprehensive overall measure, the HDI ranking, Bangladesh comes in at 142, ahead of Pakistan’s 146. Those four places in the ranking mean the difference between coming in at the tail end of what the UN considers “medium human development” versus “low human development.” Pakistan is in the “low” category. In addition, in the female-to-male HDI ratio, Bangladesh comes closer to parity with a 0.91 ratio, compared with Pakistan’s 0.75. Other countries with a female-to-male HDI ratio below 0.8 include Yemen, Mali, and Central African Republic.   Source: 2014 Human Development Trends by Indicator, United Nations Development Programme.   The literacy rate in Bangladesh is 57.7 percent, and in Pakistan 54.9 percent. Bangladeshis have a life expectancy of 70.7 years, compared with Pakistan’s 66.6 years. Bangladesh’s annual population growth is slower at 1.1 percent than Pakistan’s at 1.8 percent. Bangladesh’s maternal mortality ratio is close to Pakistan’s, with 240 compared with Pakistan’s 260 deaths per 100,000 live births. But Bangladeshi children are far more likely to survive beyond age five: Bangladesh’s under-five mortality rate is forty-one per 1,000 live births, and Pakistan’s is eighty-six. Both countries have a similar metric on under-five child stunting, so there is not a great gap there. Apart from a couple similarities, all of these indicators paint a picture of Bangladesh as a country better educating its citizens, helping them live longer, helping ensure that children survive, and controlling population growth better. Things become much more skewed in other metrics. Bangladesh devotes 3.7 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) to health, compared with Pakistan’s 2.5 percent. Alarmingly, Pakistan’s homicide rate, 7.8 per 100,000, is nearly triple Bangladesh’s 2.7. Pakistan’s homicide rate more closely resembles those of  Bolivia or Zimbabwe, both at 7.7 per 100,000. Bangladeshi women are far more likely to bear children during the ages of fifteen to nineteen, with its adolescent birth rate at 88.7 births per one thousand women compared with Pakistan’s 30.9 births per one thousand women, but they are also far more likely to be in the workforce. Bangladesh’s female-to-male labor force participation rate is 0.681, compared with Pakistan’s 0.294. Although its economy has been growing at or around 6 percent for much of the last twenty years, Bangladesh remains poorer on a per capita basis than Pakistan. GDP per capita in Bangladesh (2011 data in purchasing power parity terms) was $2,364 compared with Pakistan’s $4,360. This means that despite being poorer, Bangladesh has managed to notch up better development outcomes on most of the major metrics compared with Pakistan. Bangladesh started out far behind Pakistan, but has been closing the gap. All of this points to the separate paths the citizens and their leaders chose. The outcomes seen in Bangladesh are the result of policy choices focused on delivering better health to all and a more equal environment for women. It shows that deliberate policies can create change, and governments can better the lives of citizens even starting from a situation of impoverishment. Bangladesh was once Henry Kissinger’s “basket case,” but it has moved far away from its earlier woes. Pakistani citizens deserve that chance as well. By repeatedly overprioritizing the goals of its military, rather than the more comprehensive ambition of offering all citizens a better shot at living longer, healthier, more rewarding and productive lives, Pakistani leaders are failing on the basic social contract with their society. Washington ought to focus its assistance in this direction, instead of leading with F16s. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa [*EDITOR’S NOTE: An earlier version of this blog post incorrectly stated the adolescent birth rates in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Instead of 88.7 percent and 30.9 percent, the statistics should have been expressed as 88.7 births per one thousand women in Bangladesh, and 30.9 births per one thousand women in Pakistan, as stated correctly in the chart.]

In the late 2000s and early 2010s, Bangladesh, which for years had been an international symbol of poverty and catastrophe, seemed to have reached a kind of stability. The country’s economy, powered by its garment industry and low-end manufacturing, was posting some of the highest growth rates in Asia, and grabbing textile jobs from China, Cambodia, and other countries. The Bangladesh government announced that Bangladesh could become a middle-income country by 2021. And after a brief period of military rule in the mid-2000s, politics in Bangladesh, which has witnessed nineteen military coups in its short history, seemed to be edging toward stable democracy, with regular contested elections, a vibrant civil society, and a boisterous online media. “I call the country the next Asian tiger,” then-U.S. ambassador to Bangladesh Dan Mozena said in 2013---a comparison to stable Asian dynamos like Taiwan and Hong Kong. But in the past two years, the country’s politics have regressed severely. Since the January 2014 elections, the most violent in Bangladesh’s history, both the ruling Awami League and the opposition Bangladesh National Party have continued to send activists, thugs, and the security forces into the streets for regular battles. The Awami League leadership, once viewed by liberal Bangladeshis as the best hope for sustained democracy, has tried to change Bangladeshi law to weaken independent institutions, and has jailed thousands of opposition activists. And in this environment of repression and violence, Islamic militancy is rising. In the past year, four secular bloggers, who are often the leaders in promoting free expression in Bangladesh, have been murdered, allegedly by Islamic militants. Most recently, in early August, a group of men forced their way into the home of blogger Niladri Chaterjee and slit his throat. An autopsy report found that the killers also had hacked Chaterjee with fourteen blows to his head and upper torso. Other bloggers have been hacked to death with machetes in public. For more on Bangladesh’s political regression, and how it fits into the global trend of democratic retreat, read my new piece for The National.

On April 24, 2013, the Rana Plaza factory, which manufactured apparel for Benetton, Primark, and J.C. Penney, among others, collapsed in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The disaster killed over 1,100 and injured another 3,000, most of them young women. In the tragedy’s wake, Bangladesh has tried to help the victims and their families, and to improve industry safety and working conditions more generally, with mixed results. Rana Plaza highlights both the best and the worst of what globalization and global supply chains bring to developing countries. Large-scale apparel manufacturing came to Bangladesh in the late 1970s. South Korean company Daewoo, better known today for its auto and electronics businesses, joined with local partner Desh Garments to found one of the first export-oriented garment factories, producing shirts. Many more followed–today the country claims over 5,000 garment factories with 4 million workers. In 2011, Bangladesh accounted for almost 5 percent of global apparel exports. The industry drives the domestic economy, representing 16 percent of GDP and spurring growth of nearly 6 percent a year for the last two decades. Apparel dominates exports, constituting over 90 percent of what the nation sends abroad. This trade has helped fundamentally change Bangladeshi society, in many ways for the better. Poverty rates have fallen from 70 percent in the 1970s to less than 40 percent today. The nation has made steady gains on the UN’s Human Development Index. And the garment industry gave particularly rural women an alternative to backbreaking agricultural labor and opened up the possibility of financial independence. A 2015 study in the Journal of Development Economics found that Bangladeshi women with access to garment factory jobs delay marriage and childbirth and stay in school longer, as literacy and math skills are valued on the factory floor. Yet the industry also pays poorly and restricts union membership. Workers routinely suffer from respiratory diseases, injuries, and even death. Rana Plaza is just the worst of many incidences: in 2005 the Spectrum garment factory collapse killed 64 and 112 people died in the Tazreen garment factory fire in 2012. The often blatant disregard for labor rights and safety standards comes in part from the way these supply chains function. A 2014 study by the NYU Center for Business and Human Rights found that international brands such as Zara and the Gap operate through indirect sourcing. By subcontracting to purchasing agents, the big brand names have little to no access and oversight. And outsourcing continues on down the production pyramid: factories that receive contracts from middlemen often then subcontract themselves in order to scale up to meet the volume and time demands of fast fashion. So Zara rarely knows, much less inspects, these multiple levels of dressmakers, leaving little to no transparency in the manufacturing process. And there is scant loyalty from big brands pursuing the lowest nominal cost, limiting factory incentives to invest and making accountability all the more difficult. As production moves to smaller and more unregulated factories–some just rows of sewing machines in garages or homes–abuses multiply. These facilities often fail to maintain even basic safety standards, for instance supplying fire extinguishers in the overheated, fabric-filled rooms. Low wages, long hours, and disregard for safety standards create the conditions for disasters like Rana Plaza. The response to the Rana Plaza collapse also underscores the good and the bad of this global commercial connectedness. International organizations quickly pressed for improved working conditions. The International Labor Organization’s (ILO) Better Work Bangladesh program pushes for more monitoring by the government and the industry itself. International brands and buyers founded the Bangladesh Accord on Fire and Building Safety and the Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety to help change the dangerous status quo. Still, these programs only target companies on the books–an estimated 40 percent of the industry. And the government’s National Action Plan to upgrade the garment sector remains an aspiration rather than a reality. While the Accord and the Alliance have spurred some positive shifts, the government lacks the funds and the capacity to revamp the industry. Some foreign firms are changing their practices. H&M inspects its subcontractors’ facilities and offers incentives for better working conditions. Uniqlo is shifting the way it works with suppliers, creating longer-term relationships, providing 18-month forecasts, and compensating local partners for any lost production. Still others, including the Gap, haven’t altered their practices or signed onto plans to monitor and finance factory safety, arguing it would expose the company to litigation in the United States. For the actual victims of the Rana Plaza, compensation and justice lag. An ILO-managed Rana Plaza Donors’ Trust Fund for the victims just reached its USD$30 million goal. And only this June were factory owner Sohel Rana and 41 others charged with murder. As Bangladesh struggles to improve wages and working conditions, the public and private sectors worry about losing the industry and its jobs. After the 2014 police crackdowns in Cambodia, the government instituted a higher monthly minimum wage for its garment industry. In response, many Western brands began to look elsewhere. New countries–particularly those in Africa–hope to boost their own manufacturing potential by joining the apparel supply chain, competing with Bangladesh and others on cheap wages and low power costs. Automation, including robotic sewing machines, threatens to replace manual labor altogether. How Bangladesh addresses these challenges will affect its economy, its politics, and its people. Still, the possibility for a prosperous future remains deeply tied to trade and to remaining an integral part of these and other global supply chains.

It’s been a stellar week for Indian security. First, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter visited India, and formally renewed the bilateral framework for defense cooperation with his counterpart Minister of Defense Manohar Parrikar. This entire trip resulted in a brief, eight-point joint press release, which has garnered little attention, but cements forward progress in deepening security ties between New Delhi and Washington. But second, no less importantly, Prime Minister Modi set off for Dhaka on a visit slated to at last resolve one of the world’s most complex borders, and reset India’s ties with the world’s eighth-largest country. The two developments this week mark an intensification of India’s focus on its Asia-Pacific future, and U.S. support for an India with stronger links to its east. Secretary Carter’s visit to India was his first as secretary of defense, but he had visited earlier while in office as deputy secretary of defense and as under secretary for acquisition, technology, and logistics. In these earlier roles, he championed the importance of a strong defense relationship with India and crafted the Defense Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI), now delivering results. Earlier this week he quietly made history as the first U.S. secretary of defense to visit an Indian “operational military command”—the Eastern Naval Command. Located at Visakhapatnam, the Eastern Naval Command looks out across the Bay of Bengal and connects India across the waters to Southeast Asia. In fact, a direct line following the same latitude leads directly to Myanmar. At a time when India’s “Act East” strategy converges with the U.S. rebalance to Asia, Secretary Carter’s stop at Visakhapatnam reinforces the Joint Strategic Vision on the Indian Ocean and the Asia Pacific released during President Obama’s January visit to India. The Framework for the U.S.-India Defense Relationship, signed by Secretary Carter and Minister Parrikar and released publicly, renews the cooperation framework put in place a decade back by then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and then-Minister of Defense Pranab Mukherjee (now president of India). While the framework largely follows the specifics laid out in 2005, two new features deserve mention. One, the new document adds “supporting a rule-based order” to the declared top-level interest in protecting the free flow of commerce. This inclusion clearly demonstrates the concerns Washington and New Delhi share over China’s South China Sea claims and activities. The second new item of note in the 2015 defense framework covers DTTI, “recognizing the transformative effect” it can have. In the Pentagon’s release summarizing the trip, “Parrikar and Carter agreed to expedite discussions” for cooperation on jet engines, aircraft carriers, and others. These complex technologies will require time to determine how the United States and India can work together, but the fact that they will be expedited for cooperation will transform the maritime partnership between both countries. Which brings me to Modi’s Dhaka visit. As India looks to its east, it has for the last seventy years had an unimaginably complicated border to manage—its longest border, in fact—with Bangladesh. As I’ve written previously, the legacy first of the 1947 partition of India followed by East Pakistan’s secession and 1971 independence as Bangladesh produced a boundary that literally left thousands of citizens in islands of extra-territoriality on both sides. (Look at this map or this drawing for an idea of the enormity of the problem.) There are more than 160 of these enclaves, affecting some 50,000 people on both sides. Modi has pursued a boundary agreement first attempted in 1974, then again in 2011 by then-Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Because resolving the border issue and dealing with these enclaves will require a constitutional amendment—the Indian constitution defines the boundaries of India—the agreement has a higher bar to clear than a more typical piece of legislation. Unfortunately previous efforts fell victim to India’s domestic politics. Bangladesh, which requires the same process, approved the precursor to this agreement back in 1974. This is an agreement long, long in the works. Resolving the border enclaves and essentially regularizing the Indo-Bangladesh boundary will make it far easier to manage. That will on its own merits benefit Indian security. But another agreement on the anvil for Modi’s Dhaka visit will be a transit agreement, which will vastly enhance economic connectivity. India will be better linked to its own northeastern states, otherwise connected to India through a tiny “chicken’s neck” of land known as the Siliguri Corridor to Bangladesh’s northwest. And Bangladesh will be able to transport goods via India to Nepal or Bhutan. It will open up this entire eastern region as a more active economic gateway to southeast Asia. So it’s been a strong week for Indian security with particular emphasis on the east, and welcome, long-overdue progress on the Dhaka-Delhi front. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa

Earlier this week, a young blogger, Washiqur Rahman, was hacked to death outside his Dhaka home. This is the third such attack— gruesome butcherings by machete—in the past two years, and all three have targeted “atheist bloggers.” With a third murder, we can no longer see these as purely isolated incidents; rather, they now form a chilling pattern. This development stuns us because Bangladesh has not suffered from the acute terrorism problem tearing Pakistan apart. Until 1971, they were the same country; following Bangladesh’s independence, the two have taken notably divergent trajectories. Dhaka has done well in recent years cracking down on terrorist groups, and has been able to focus its attentions on economic growth and human development needs. In a society that has long been noted for its tolerance—the country is routinely described as “moderate”—the idea that radicals would murder writers because of their ideas comes as a shock. In Huffington Post India, I explain why these murders—effectively ideological assassinations—go against the idea of Bangladesh. For more, read the article: Murdering the Idea of Bangladesh. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa

Bangladesh has been wracked by political protests over the past two years. Paradoxically, despite the country’s dysfunctional politics, its economy has done well. Last year, the all-important garment sector defied the odds and actually grew around 14 percent between July 2013 and May 2014. This insulation of the economy from the country’s toxic politics may be coming to an end, however. Since early January, the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has led street protests (hartals) along with transportation blockades. For the last two months, the daily strikes and protests have continued, keeping the country at a low boil, and resulting in the death of more than 120 people. Yesterday, following the completion of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission to review the state of the Bangladeshi economy as part of an extended credit facility arrangement in place for the last three years, mission lead Rodrigo Cubero issued a statement. He noted prudent macroeconomic policies in place and highlighted positive economic developments: reserves restored, inflation down, public debt-to-GDP down, “robust and resilient” growth, and poverty on the decline. His comment on the economic outlook linked to politics, though, was pointed: However, the resurgence of unrest in recent months is taking a toll on the economy. For FY15 (July 2014-June 2015) as a whole, we expect real GDP to grow by about 6 percent. Inflation has eased against lower food prices, but faces upside risks from unrest-related supply disruptions. The external current account is expected to shift to a deficit on the heels of strong import growth and a moderation in exports. Although Bangladesh’s economic growth has been hovering around 6 percent for the last few years, the IMF had estimated earlier that FY15 would see a growth rate of about 6.4 percent. So yesterday’s IMF statement represents half a percentage point cut in the forecast, and it is well below the Bangladeshi government’s target of over 7 percent. Bangladeshis were probably not surprised. In February, Bangladesh Finance Minister AMA Muhith stated in a press conference that he doubted the country would be able to meet its 7.3 percent growth target due to political unrest. A World Bank official told the Los Angeles Times that the larger economic toll of political unrest could be as high as $2 billion. What appears to be different from this year’s political violence compared to that of a year and a half ago is the negative effect on garment exports. Unlike the previous period, during which fears of a downturn turned out to be unfounded, the garment industry has begun to speak about a decline in orders. The head of the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers Export Association (BGMEA) told the press that between foreign currency depreciation and political violence in Bangladesh, buyers are offering lower prices and “do not want to come to Bangladesh to place orders amid the violence.” One anonymous industry source told the newspaper Prothom Alo that orders had dropped by 30 to 40 percent. To try to solve the problem, the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry, along with export-focused industry bodies BGMEA, the knitwear association, and the textile mills association, recently joined together to file public interest litigation seeking for transport blockades and disruptive protests to be made illegal. The industry does not believe it can weather the storm this time around. Why would the Bangladeshi opposition want to hurt their own country’s economy, especially its most important export sector? Every time I have ever asked members of the BNP why they employ the hartal form of protest, the answer has always been that they feel they have no other choice to make their voices heard. This feeling has only intensified after the party decided not to participate in the January 2014 national election since it would not be held under a caretaker government. The result was predictably a landslide for the Awami League, which swept seats that in about half the consitutencies went unopposed. But I simply cannot see why that should excuse the use of transportation blockades and violence. Parties and activists around the world mount protests and sit-ins peacefully and without disruption to national economies. Of course, the Bangladeshi government is not helping defuse the situation. BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia has been held under de facto house arrest in her party office since early January, and she may be arrested shortly on corruption charges according to recent press. Every effort to mediate the impasse between Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Begum Zia has run aground. It is hard to see a way out of this situation, since neither side will back down. Political dysfunction is tarnishing the great optimism about Bangladesh’s future and its ability to maintain the growth, positive development progress, and important maintenance of democracy that has set this developing nation of 160 million apart. The BNP has shown they can selectively call off the blockades, since they just did so for twelve hours to celebrate Bangladesh’s win over England in the cricket World Cup. They ought to call off their strikes and blockades once again, unilaterally, and shift to a focus on peaceful expression of dissent. The Bangladeshi government should similarly take steps to lower the temperature, starting by ending the threat to arrest Begum Zia. I do not have high hopes that the hot war between the two begums can be successfully mediated. A late 2013 effort to bring the two leaders together to talk directly foundered sadly on quibbles over who should call whom. But that shouldn’t mean giving up. The United Nations effort unfortunately has not succeeded, but perhaps a fresh attempt could be renewed. Or perhaps the Elders, voices of deep experience and reason representing countries around the world, might have better luck. Regardless of the mediator, Bangladeshi parties should focus on their country’s future, and learn to live with political difference. That’s the essence of democracy. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, William Piekos, and Ariella Rotenberg look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. Australian prime minister announces new strategy to confront terrorism threat. Following the release of an official report on the terrorist attack in Sydney in December, Prime Minister Tony Abbott delivered an address at the Australian Federal Police headquarters announcing a new national counterterrorism strategy. A senior official will be appointed to oversee the new measures, which include tightening immigration, curbing the rights of Australians involved in terrorism, strengthening policing powers, and cracking down on hate speech. Abbott asserted that, “on all metrics, the threat to Australia is worsening,” pointing to recent arrests and ongoing serious investigations of terrorist suspects. His remarks provoked criticism from Muslim advocates and leaders who felt that Abbott was stigmatizing the entire Muslim community. 2. Hong Kong woman sentenced for abusing maid. Law Wan-tung, who was convicted of beating, starving, and threatening her Indonesian maid, was sentenced to six years in prison (as well as a small fine of less than US$2,000) for her crimes. The maximum sentence was seven years. In a statement, Erwiana Sulistyaningsih, the abuse victim, stated that she thought the sentence was too light and sends “the wrong signal to employers who mistreat or violate the rights of their domestic workers.” The case has brought to light the difficult conditions for domestic helpers in Hong Kong. As many as 300,000 women, mostly from Indonesia and the Philippines, work in Hong Kong, and are, by law, treated as second-class citizens. 3. Xi unveils his “Four Comprehensives.” Chinese President Xi Jinping revealed his new political theory to the world this week in front-page commentary and headline broadcast throughout state news outlets. The People’s Daily enumerated the Four Comprehensives as such: comprehensively build a moderately prosperous society; comprehensively deepen reform; comprehensively govern the nation according to law; and comprehensively strictly govern the Party. The last comprehensive, on Communist Party discipline, is seen as a reference to Xi’s antigraft efforts, which have been a hallmark of his first years in power. Xi’s slogan follows a long line of political slogans from China’s leaders, from Deng Xiaoping’s “Reform and Opening Up” to Jiang Zemin’s “Three Represents” to Hu Jintao’s “Scientific Outlook on Development.” 4. Anti-corruption court in Bangladesh issues arrest warrants for former prime minister. Begum Khaleda Zia, former prime minister and leader of the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), stands accused of embezzling $650,000 while serving as Bangladesh’s prime minister from 2001 to 2006. Zia has denied the charges, claiming they are politically motivated. The rivalry between Zia and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has characterized politics in Bangladesh for the past two decades. In January 2014, Zia called for her supporters to boycott the national elections; Hasina’s Awami League swept to power with more than half of the seats uncontested. Since January, on the one-year anniversary of the national elections described by the BNP as a farce, political protests by BNP supporters have led to more than one hundred deaths. Amid the ongoing violence, a Bangladesh-born American known for his blog about secularism in politics was hacked to death in Dhaka on Thursday. 5. Family of jailed Malaysian opposition leader files for royal pardon. After Malaysia’s highest court upheld a five-year prison sentence for opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim on charges of sodomy earlier this month, the leader is now back in jail. Anwar has maintained the charge against him was politically motivated; his family claims he has been “tyrannized” and his health is at risk the longer he remains behind bars. Despite an initial denial from Anwar’s lawyers, family members are seeking a royal pardon that would allow him to retain his parliamentary seat. The petition for his pardon, however, will carry no weight in the Malaysian government if not signed by Anwar himself. Bonus: Mummy found inside of a Chinese Buddha statue. CT scans done by researchers at the Netherlands’ Meander Medical Center reveal a detailed view of the preserved remains of a Buddhist monk, estimated to have died in the twelfth century. The mummy is the only one of its kind ever found. The process of self-mummification was considered by some Buddhists to be a form of enlightenment and involves embalming prior to death, rather than posthumously as was done in Egypt. Correction: The Meander Medical Center is located in the Netherlands, not Norway as originally stated.

Ashlyn Anderson, Lauren Dickey, Darcie Draudt, William Piekos, Ariella Rotenberg, and Sharone Tobias look at the top stories in Asia today. 1. New  Year’s Eve stampede in Shanghai. A deadly stampede broke out among the hundreds of thousands of people gathered along Shanghai’s Huangpu River waterfront on New Year’s Eve, resulting in thirty-six deaths and forty-nine hospitalizations. This past Wednesday, grieving loved ones gathered in memorial of those lost. Ahead of the festivities, the government feared overcrowding and went so far as to cancel a planned light show along the Bund; predicting smaller crowds than in previous years, five thousand fewer officers were posted during the celebration, and those on duty were unable to control the crowds. Beijing’s censors and police have been hard at work in the days following the stampede to restrict interviews with relatives of the victims and independent reporting of the incident. Some experts, including CFR Senior Fellow Elizabeth Economy, have argued that Chinese President Xi Jinping has squandered an important opportunity to demonstrate leadership through compassion and understanding for his people during this time of mourning. 2. Sri Lankan president concedes defeat in electoral upset. In the first presidential election since the end of the Sri Lankan civil war in 2009, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa conceded defeat to former ally and government minister, Maithripala Sirisena. Winning 51 percent of the vote, President Sirisena was sworn in on Friday in the wake of a contentious election. President Sirisena has promised to reform the island’s corruption-laced government and establish “equal relations” with India, China, Pakistan, and Japan. Though the United States welcomed the new president and peaceful elections, some experts speculate that Sri Lanka may begin to distance itself from China under the new administration. 3. AirAsia Flight 8501 from Indonesia to Singapore crashes. An Indonesian affiliate of the Malaysia-based airline AirAsia crashed in the Java Sea with no survivors en route from Surabaya, Indonesia, to Singapore on December 28. The crash was the third fatal airline accident involving a Malaysian airline in 2014. Thus far, rescuers have recovered 48 bodies out of 162 passengers and crew, and search and rescue teams detected pings believed to be from the plane’s black box recorder on Friday. The plane was found to have taken off without proper permits, and as a result, Indonesia’s Transportation Ministry levied sanctions against five airlines that have flown routes without authorization. It will also conduct investigations in five of the country’s largest airports. As CFR Senior Fellow Joshua Kurlantzick notes, Indonesia is known to have a poor flight safety record, especially when compared to other middle-income countries. 4. Violence in Bangladesh on the anniversary of January 2014 elections. On Monday, the one-year anniversary of the 2014 national elections in Bangladesh, four people were killed in political protests by the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP). In last year’s elections, which was boycotted by the BNP, over half the seats were uncontested, helping the Awami League to win more than a two-thirds majority. Opposition leader Begum Khaleda Zia, who has been confined to her office by security forces this week, called on her supporters to enforce a “nonstop blockade” after the government banned demonstrations. In another incident on Wednesday, police shot dead two protesters and rounded up hundreds more; a third person was killed by anti-government protesters in a separate incident as well. 5. The United States steps up sanctions on North Korea; South Korean nuclear plants hacked. Citing a U.S. FBI report that concluded North Korea was behind the damaging cyberattack on Sony Pictures last month, the White House issued an executive order on January 2 for sanctions that target North Korean leaders. The sanctions apply directly to three North Korean state-owned businesses and ten high-level individuals associated with the regime. The executive order expands U.S. sanctions on North Korea for its “provocative, destabilizing, and repressive actions and policies.” North Korea has denied it was involved in the attacks. The Korean Peninsula has been the focus of not just one but two cyberattack events, as a South Korean civil nuclear energy company was hacked in December, accompanied with the release of personal information of the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company’s ten thousand employees. South Korean authorities have traced the attack to internet protocol (IP) addresses based in the northeastern Chinese city of Shenyang (which is also where the Sony attack is purported to have originated). Bonus: “Nuts” Korean heiress indicted for endangering a flight. Cho Hyun-ah, former vice president at Korea Air and daughter of its chairman, is being indicted for violating aviation safety after going nuts on an airplane for being served macadamia nuts in the incorrect fashion. She stalled a flight bound for Seoul from New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport because a flight attendant gave her nuts in a bag instead of on a plate, and ordered the plane to return to the gate. She was indicted on five counts of violating aviation safety laws and interfering with safe navigation.

Today, one year following national elections in Bangladesh, at least four people died in violence following political protests in Dhaka and other cities across the country. The proximate reason: the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) took out protests, which the ruling Awami League government had banned, to mark a “Murder of Democracy Day.” Despite the ban on protests, press reports indicate that members of the Awami League "outnumbered" the opposition on the streets of Dhaka. A brief recap of the past year’s events provides the background for today’s tragedy. Throughout much of 2013, Bangladesh was paralyzed by hartals—strikes designed to halt all activity in whatever city they take place—called by the opposition BNP. The BNP, frustrated that the sitting Awami League-led government planned to hold elections overseen by the Bangladesh Election Commission rather than a neutral caretaker government, took to the streets in protest. As I wrote a little more than a year ago, So the BNP leadership has been adamant that they will settle for nothing other than a caretaker. The Awami League government has offered to negotiate, and the BNP has said it is ready to talk, but direct talks between the two heads of both parties did not go very well, as a published phone transcript illustrated in October. Meanwhile, the government has announced elections for January 5, 2014, an all-party government is now in place, and the BNP as well as the smaller Jatiya Party have both declared that they will not participate, which would undermine the goal of a free and fair election. As events transpired, the Bangladesh national elections indeed took place on January 5 of last year, with more than half the seats uncontested due to the BNP’s boycott, and an Awami League government was voted in with what amounted to an overwhelming share in the National Assembly—more than two-thirds (232) of the 300 elected seats. Some governments around the world made statements of support for the new Bangladeshi government, noting that the election had been held in keeping with the Bangladeshi constitution, which was true. The United States continued to press for greater political inclusion, including in public statements. But as the months went on, it seemed ever more apparent that the government was in place for its full term and was not looking to call fresh elections. For most of 2014, at least on the political front, things have been relatively quiet in Bangladesh—a great relief, certainly, for Bangladeshis, who suffered under the ongoing hartals of 2013. Now, the head of the BNP, Begum Khaleda Zia, who has been restricted by security forces to her office (the government has said this is for her own protection) has called for a “nonstop blockade” to cover all varieties of transportation in the country. This surely cannot harm anyone but ordinary Bangladeshis and the Bangladeshi economy: recall that a United Nations Development Programme study done in 2005 estimated that each day of stoppage costs the country 0.3 percent of GDP per day, and the Dhaka chamber study estimated that same cost at $200 million per day. Two scholars wrote an academic paper assessing the history of hartals and the “grievous” cost to Bangladesh’s development, tallying historical figures on “burned transport” and other terrible effects of these protests. Hartals are not unique to the BNP—in fact, they are a universally employed form of political protest across parties in Bangladesh. It’s not uncommon, sadly, to read news accounts following hartals with stories of buses or trains set on fire, ordinary people assaulted on the street, and clashes between protestors and security forces as well as between protestors of opposing parties. None of this violence serves to advance anyone’s political agenda. So I have to ask: why can’t Bangladeshis protest peacefully? Imagine a day of protest that doesn’t prevent a young mother from going to the factory to earn her daily wage, or that doesn’t result in deaths and injuries. Imagine a political rally that focuses on a message and an agenda without disrupting citizens’ lives. As I said last year, I have great regard for the Bangladesh development miracle that has lifted millions from poverty and helped transform the country into a “Next 11” economy. After only Vietnam, Bangladesh is more supportive of capitalism than the rest of the world. It’s a place that has weathered misfortunes and risen above them. Bangladeshis deserve to continue that progress, and violent protests have no place in that vision of success. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa

It was a busy news year in South Asia, with events that will have far-reaching consequences for the region. Between India’s historic election, a hard-won unity government in Afghanistan, and ongoing political turmoil in Pakistan combined with shocking terrorist attacks, South Asia made the front pages around the world for many different reasons. Like last year, I’ve tried to sift through the year’s developments and assess which will have lasting effects on the countries in the region and beyond. Herewith my personal selection of 2014’s most consequential stories in South Asia: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wins single-party majority in India, Narendra Modi becomes prime minister: Every general election in India is the world’s largest, and the 2014 elections to India’s Lok Sabha (House of the People) broke previous records. More than 550 million citizens turned out to vote in a nine-phase election stretching across six weeks. Narendra Modi took campaigning to a new level, criss-crossing the country to campaign, even appearing as a hologram before crowds he could not reach in person to stump for economic growth and good governance. And the BJP triumphed, coming out of a decade in opposition to secure a single-party majority, a feat not seen in India in thirty years. Markets responded positively to the news of a clear political mandate, with the Bombay Stock Exchange index reaching a then-record high the day the results were announced. While Modi placed great emphasis on economic growth during the campaign, his government’s reform efforts once in office have been less dramatic than expected; observers are now looking to his first full-year budget, due in February. Following protracted disputes, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah agree on power-sharing unity government in Afghanistan: The 2014 presidential election in Afghanistan unfolded over a lengthy five months, with an April first round, a June runoff, and ongoing accusations of election tampering thereafter. Intensive U.S. diplomacy through September helped achieve a power-sharing agreement for a “unity government,” allowing the country to move forward at a delicate time with international forces in the process of drawing down—and questions about regional stability increasingly voiced. With major high-level visits, China further cements development, economic, and strategic ties with Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka: 2014 was the year that the People’s Republic of China unveiled its Silk Route and Maritime Silk Route connectivity strategies for the larger Asia region, complete with maps and major bilateral visits with South Asian countries. India has long worried about Chinese “encirclement” through what some analysts have termed a “string of pearls” presence throughout South Asia; in 2014 senior official bilateral visits at the head of government/head of state level took place between China and Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bangladesh, plus a foreign minister-level visit to Nepal (a 2014 visit of Nepal’s prime minister to China for an expo did not involve a Beijing stop). Each of these visits resulted in substantial announcements of economic assistance especially focused on infrastructure development. China has become a major economic partner—in many cases the top trading partner and/or leading foreign investor—in much of South Asia. President Xi Jinping’s visit to India in September began with economic optimism but quickly turned to tension after Chinese troops incurred across the undemarcated border with India. U.S. and NATO troops complete handover of security operations in Afghanistan, scaling back to supporting role: December 2014 marked the ceremonial end of NATO responsibility in Afghanistan, as well as the transition of U.S. troops to a “train and support” mission, with Afghan security forces now in the lead. The international troop presence will remain at around thirteen thousand in early 2015, with the drawdown to resume on its path to phasing down to a small assistance role by the end of 2016. At its peak in 2011, the international coalition troop presence in Afghanistan was 140,000. Many countries in the region fear that a rapid drawdown could result in regional instability, as in Iraq, if Taliban and other terrorist attacks increase. Pakistani civilian government squeezed between military and street mobs, another setback for democracy: Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, came to power in a 2013 election widely heralded as a triumph for Pakistani democracy: the first peaceful transfer of power from one civilian government to another. Yet a year later, Sharif found his government beset with problems—especially a months-long “sit-in” street protest led by Imran Khan and the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf party that derailed the government from accomplishing anything for 126 days. Khan demanded that the democratically elected government step down as he claimed its victory was due to poll rigging. (Note: Khan called off his sit-in following the Taliban attack on a school in Peshawar in December.) Indian economy begins to pick up, regains “stable” rating, institutional investors return to India: During the last three years of India’s previous government, the country’s once-bright investment story lost its luster due to numerous corruption scandals and a more difficult investment environment. In 2012, Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on India to “negative.” Since India’s credit rating was already at BBB-, the lowest investment grade, a negative outlook put India at risk for downgrade to junk status. Prime Minister Modi, elected this year on a mandate for growth, made pitching for foreign investment among his top foreign policy priorities. Institutional investors came back quickly, pleased with the outlook for doing business, and India regained a “stable” outlook for its credit rating. Economic growth ticked up to 5.6 percent (from 5.0 percent in 2013), with both the IMF and World Bank forecasting growth over 6 percent in 2015. With a $2 trillion economy, India is the region’s economic engine. Awami League’s Sheikh Hasina reelected to five-year term in Bangladesh in low-turnout election: Following months of street violence and threats by the opposition party Bangladesh National Party (BNP) to boycott the national elections in Bangladesh should a caretaker government not oversee the process, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina went ahead with elections on January 5. Half the seats were uncontested, due to the BNP’s boycott, and the ruling Awami League was reelected handily amid violence that killed eighteen. Official figures put voter turnout at 40 percent, but press reports suggested lower turnout of some 20 to 30 percent. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit convenes after three-year delay, passes important agreement on regional energy: The regional association covering the least-integrated region in the world, SAARC, has long been troubled by the difficult relationship between India and Pakistan, which has prevented the association from accomplishing anything significant in trade and interconnectivity. Making matters worse, the host country responsible for the summit in 2012—Nepal—failed to pull together a meeting in 2012 (and again in 2013) due to its own internal political troubles. That said, once the gathering convened in November 2014, it actually managed to result in an agreement on regional energy signed by all eight countries. Agreements on regional rail connectivity and motor vehicles, however, were not concluded when Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the sole hold out, declined to sign. Taliban attack school in Peshawar, more than 130 children murdered: On December 16, Taliban terrorists attacked children attending a military school in Peshawar. As Pakistan and the rest of the world came to learn of the horrors unleashed on innocent schoolchildren—and as the Pakistani Taliban came forward to claim responsibility for the attack, termed a “reprisal” for military attacks on the Taliban—the gravity of Pakistan’s uncontrolled terrorism problem began to sink in. A public debate has resumed within Pakistan about the country’s direction, and its relationship to the Taliban, while arrests of the December 16 perpetrators are underway. Nearly simultaneously, a Pakistani court granted bail to one of the Mumbai attack planners, a Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist, leading some leading experts to question whether the Peshawar attack would result in any change after all, or whether it would be business as usual, as usual. Sri Lankan president calls early election, surprise defection creates viable opposition candidate: Sri Lanka’s strongman president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, has handily won election twice, and his current term runs through 2016. In November, he invoked a provision in the Sri Lankan constitution that allows for early elections, which could theoretically allow him to secure a mandate through to 2022. Yet in a surprise development, an opposition candidate emerged when Maithripala Sirisena defected from Rajapaksa’s own party (as well as his cabinet) to energize and lead an umbrella opposition coalition. Sirisena appears to be attracting more support, with additional members of parliament leaving Rajapaksa for Sirisena. Rajapaksa is embattled internationally, with successive UN Human Rights Council resolutions raising questions about his government’s responsibility for human rights and humanitarian law violations at the end of the country’s civil war in 2009. His increasingly centralized management of Sri Lanka has also raised questions domestically about authoritarianism. The election has been set for January 8, 2015. Follow me on Twitter: @AyresAlyssa