Afghanistan | Council on Foreign Relations

Global Conflict Tracker: War in Afghanistan

Afghan forces continue to face significant challenges in holding territory and defending population centers, while the Taliban continues to contest districts and carry out suicide attacks in major cities.

by Center for Preventive Action Aug 18, 2021

The U.S. War in Afghanistan

The Taliban surged back to power two decades after U.S.-led forces toppled their regime in what led to the United States’ longest war.

Timeline by Zachary Laub and Lindsay Maizland Sep 27, 2022

The Taliban in Afghanistan

The Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021, twenty years after their ouster by U.S. troops. Under their harsh rule, they have cracked down on women’s rights and neglected basic services.

Backgrounder by Lindsay Maizland Jan 19, 2023

China

Friday Asia Update: Five Stories From the Week of January 29, 2016

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Gabriel Walker, and James West look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Malaysian prime minister evades corruption charges. Malaysia’s attorney general announced Tuesday that Prime Minister Najib Razak did not commit a crime in accepting a $680 million donation from the Saudi royal family in 2013. Najib has been under investigation for corruption since July, when investigative journalists unearthed documents alleging the prime minister had taken $680 million from a state development fund he had created. The attorney general, who was appointed by the prime minister when his predecessor was fired weeks after the scandal broke, said that Najib returned $620 million of the donated funds. It is not clear how the $60 million that was not returned was used. Najib applauded the end of the investigation, which he called an “unnecessary distraction,” but Malaysian corruption authorities have called for a review of the attorney general’s decision. Even if ultimately cleared of the charges, Najib’s public image may be irrevocably tarnished by the allegations, as well as his government’s attempts to increase Internet censorship and arrest opposition critics. 2. Taliban attacks power grid as China urges peace talks. On Tuesday, after Afghan security forces launched an expanded operation in northern Baghlan province, the Taliban sabotaged a major power line in an attack that destroyed one electricity transmission tower and damaged two others, briefly cutting off a portion of electricity supplied from Uzbekistan to Kabul. Afghanistan imports nearly three-quarters of its electricity, with the majority of power to Kabul coming from Uzbekistan; the national power company was able to provide seventy-five megawatts of backup electricity as security forces worked to de-mine the area so the towers could be repaired. Also on Tuesday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a statement urging both governments in Afghanistan and Pakistan to restart peace talks with the Taliban, affirming their commitment to facilitating talks that were derailed last summer. China has joined Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States in attempting to formalize a process through which the Afghan government can enter negotiations with the Taliban; the newly formed Quadrilateral Coordination Group will meet for a third time in early February in Islamabad. Finally, on Wednesday the Pentagon nominated Army Lt. Gen. John Nicholson to replace Gen. John Campbell as the top U.S. and allied commander in Afghanistan. At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Gen. Nicholson urged caution against withdrawing troops too soon amid the deteriorating security situation across the country. 3. China indicts Canadian charged with espionage. Kevin Garratt, a Canadian citizen who formerly operated a coffee shop in the Sino-Korean border city of Dandong, Liaoning province, has been indicted on charges of spying and stealing state secrets after a year and a half in prison. Garratt and his wife, Julia Garratt, were first detained in August 2014 and were barred access to lawyers for months. While Julia Garratt was released in February 2015, authorities have prohibited her from leaving China. Another foreigner, Swedish human rights activist Peter Dahlin, was expelled from China this week after making a confession on state television that he had “caused harm to the Chinese government [and] hurt the feelings of the Chinese people.” 4. Japanese minister resigns after bribery accusation. Akira Amari, a top economics minister in the Shinzo Abe administration, stepped down after a Japanese magazine alleged that he and his staff had accepted bribes of at least $100,000 from a construction company. Although Mr. Amari denied pocketing the money, and claimed it was a legitimate political donation, he still resigned in order to take responsibility for his staff and to avoid a politically destabilizing scandal. Mr. Amari was in charge of carrying out Prime Minister Abe’s domestic economic revitalization plan and was also Japan’s lead negotiator on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, so there is some question over who will defend the legislation in parliament, since it has not been approved yet, now that he is gone. In addition to Mr. Amari, three other ministers have previously resigned from the Abe administration because of political funding scandals. A former environment minister, Nobuteru Ishihara, has already been chosen to fill Mr. Amari’s empty post, and Mr. Amari plans to continue serving as a member in the lower house of parliament. 5. China deepens footprint in Iran. Chinese President Xi Jinping, as part of a tour of the Middle East last week, was the first foreign leader to visit Iran after sanctions were lifted. While the region remained tense following the rupture in diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Araba, the focus of Xi’s trip was largely economic. Xi and Iranian leaders committed to deepening economic cooperation over the next twenty-five years, aiming to expand the value of their countries’ trade to $600 billion. China has been Iran’s largest trading partner over the past six years, and the two nations did over $50 billion in trade in 2014. China’s economic clout in Iran grew significantly while Western sanctions were in place, and China plays a role in a number of major construction projects including Tehran’s metro system and the Niyash Tunnel. The two nations also agreed to a military and security strategic partnership, which includes more collaboration to address terrorism and the expansion of military exchanges. Additionally, China backs Iran’s application to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a full member. Xi also visited Iran’s regional rival, Saudi Arabia, and the Chinese government emphasizes a balanced foreign policy in the region. China has recently become more actively engaged in the Middle East as demonstrated by a new Arab Policy Paper published in mid-January. The state-run media service Xinhua has emphasized the contributions that China could make to the Middle East, including that “the wisdom of China, which is trusted by Middle Eastern countries as a non-interfering country, could serve as an effective remedy for problems and herald a brighter future for the region.” Bonus: People’s Daily declares war on George Soros’s purported war declaration. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) top newspaper took major offense at remarks about the Chinese economy the investor made at the World Economic Forum last week. Soros said that a hard landing was “practically unavoidable” for the Chinese economy; state media fired back that Soros “would inevitably pay a heavy price” for shorting China. On January 26, an article featured on the front page of the international edition of People’s Daily, titled “Declaring war on Chinese currency? Haha,” said that Soros had “openly ‘declared war’ on China” at Davos, but “there can be no doubt that his challenge to the RMB and HKD will fail.” The daily doth protest too much, methinks.

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound January 29, 2016 Asia Unbound
China

Friday Asia Update: Five Stories From the Week of January 15, 2016

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, Gabriel Walker, and James West look at five stories from Asia this week. 1. Taiwan takes to the polls. Tomorrow, the island’s citizens will choose between the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) Tsai Ing-wen, the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Eric Chu, and the People First Party’s (PFP) James Soong when they turn out to vote for a new president. Tsai, who lost the 2012 presidential race to incumbent KMT president Ma Ying-jeou, is expected to win with a significant margin this year. That would make Tsai, a noted cat-lover, the first woman to hold the office and the second non-KMT president. Legislative elections are less certain, however. All 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan are up for grabs, but it is not clear that either major party (the KMT and DPP) will secure a majority. KMT candidates have been hurt by the deep unpopularity of President Ma and the party’s loss of its monopoly on the public narrative of Taiwan’s relationship to China. But the DPP may also be prevented from securing a majority by small, issue-focused third-party candidates who have sprung up in the wake of the 2014 Sunflower Movement. However, the DPP may come close enough to a majority that they can form a coalition with these “third force” parties. For commentary as the polls open, see this list of Twitter’s top voices on Taiwan. 2. Diplomats meet to restart Taliban peace talks. Officials from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and the United States met in Islamabad on Monday to discuss a “road map” for reviving stalled peace talks with the Afghan Taliban. Direct talks between the Afghan government and Taliban representatives, facilitated by Pakistan and observed by Chinese and U.S. officials, collapsed after only one meeting in July 2015. Afghan officials said beforehand they expected a list from Pakistan of Taliban willing to negotiate with Kabul, and are “seeking unprecedented cooperation” from the Pakistani military in convincing Taliban factions to come to the table, and more importantly, to crack down on those factions that do not. The day-long meeting ended with a statement that officials would reconvene in Kabul next week. This week’s meeting comes after a serious deterioration of security across Afghanistan in the past year, with the Taliban now controlling dozens of districts across the country and threatening major population centers—including the brief takeover of Kunduz last fall and ongoing battles around key districts in Helmand province. Separately, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for an attack near the Pakistani consulate in Jalalabad on Wednesday that killed at least seven Afghan security forces. Support for the Islamic State’s Afghanistan branch has grown as Taliban factions, disaffected by the new Taliban leadership, have splintered and defected to the group. 3. Park presses China for heavier hand with North Korea. Following North Korea’s test of an alleged hydrogen bomb last week, South Korean President Park Geun-hye addressed China’s relationship with North Korea during an annual press conference, stating, “I think China is fully aware that if such strong will is not matched by necessary measures, we cannot prevent fifth and sixth nuclear tests by the North or guarantee real peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.” She also noted that “the best partners are those who will hold your hand in difficult times.” China is South Korea’s largest trading partner and Park has made improving ties with China a key part of her foreign policy. It was hoped that the warming of relations might increase China’s willingness to pressure its ally North Korea, but the success of this approach remains in question. Although the Chinese foreign ministry has also repeatedly stated its opposition to North Korea’s nuclear program, the Chinese official response thus far has been to emphasize the need to resume disarmament talks and address the issue through continued dialogue rather than impose new sanctions. Furthermore, when the South Korean defense minister attempted to use a recently established hotline with China after last week’s test, his call did not receive a response. On Thursday, China and South Korea announced that the nuclear test would be discussed during annual working-level military talks between the two nations to be held Friday. 4. Islamic State claims deadly Jakarta attack. On Thursday morning, suicide bombers and armed militants attacked a busy street in Jakarta, killing at least two and injuring more than twenty. Five assailants also lay dead in the aftermath. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, raising fears that the group was expanding its reach through Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. The alleged organizer, Bahrun Naim, is a leader of a Southeast Asia–based military group under the Islamic State and purportedly runs a blog with terrorist “teachings” written in Indonesian. Although this is the first major terrorist attack in Indonesia, the country with the world’s largest Muslim population, since a hotel bombing in 2009, arrests of suspects have spiked recently with at least sixteen over the past month. On Friday, Indonesia police killed one suspected militant, arrested two more, and were investigating the networks involved in planning this week’s attacks. 5. Japan submits bid for Australian submarine contract. Japanese, German, and French companies are vying to win an Australian defense contract to build as many as twelve submarines, which could be worth up to $36 billion. Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd., have proposed the world’s first lithium ion battery–powered submarines. Japan has indicated that they see their chances as very good for winning the contract over France and Germany. Furthermore, the Japanese government has argued that their success in this contest would also serve to bring the two countries closer together and help ensure maritime security in the Asia-Pacific. On the other hand, Australia may be concerned that a closer relationship with Japan may risk angering China, its largest trading partner. Although the United States has not taken an official position, U.S. government officials have said privately that a strengthened relationship between Australia and Japan would be good for U.S. strategic interests in the region. Bonus: Grindr hooks up with Chinese comrade. This week, the Chinese gaming company Beijing Kunlun Tech, the developer of popular mobile titles like “Space Hunter” and “Sword of Soul,” paid nearly $100 million for a 60 percent stake in Grindr, a geosocial gay social networking app. CEO Joel Simkhai wrote that the investment would allow for “business as usual” with “a renewed sense of purpose and additional resources.” Besides serving as an additional source of revenue for Kunlun Tech, Grindr may also be used to direct users to the company’s games. Although Grindr does have a Chinese-language version of its app, it has faced competition in China from Blued, a Chinese-made dating app for gay men that had fifteen million users, mainly in China, in 2014—possibly more than twice the number of Grindr’s users worldwide. Kunlun Tech’s investment and the popularity of Blued are signs of changing attitudes towards homosexuality in China; it was illegal in the country until 1997, and the Chinese Psychiatric Association officially classified it as a psychiatric disorder until 2001.

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound January 15, 2016 Asia Unbound
China

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories From the Week of December 11, 2015

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Ariella Rotenberg, and Gabriel Walker look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. Human trafficking investigator flees Thailand. Maj. Gen. Paween Pongsirin, a senior Thai police officer leading an investigation on human trafficking in Thailand, has fled the country to seek asylum in Australia. After more than thirty graves, which are believed to contain the remains of trafficked Rohingyas, were discovered near the Malaysian border this summer, Paween had been tasked with investigating the site and the trafficking network responsible. His investigation resulted in more than 150 arrest warrants and other charges against individuals in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Thailand, including a senior lieutenant general in the Thai Army. Paween reported that the inquiry had been shut down prematurely, and that he now feared retribution from traffickers and corrupt authorities implicated for the crimes. The Thai government is considering whether to bring a defamation case against Paween, as it did recently against two journalists for reporting the Thai navy’s involvement in human trafficking. In a report published earlier this year, the U.S. Department of State found that the Thai government “does not fully comply with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking, and is not making significant efforts to do so.” 2. China merges state-owned enterprises. Multiple mergers among Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were announced this week. On Tuesday it was revealed that the China Metallurgical Group will be incorporated into China Minmetals, although the timing to complete the merger is unknown. The State Council has also reportedly approved the merger of two shipping companies, China Shipping Group Co. and China Ocean Shipping Co., which will result in the fourth-largest shipping line in the world. Such mergers are hoped to reduce competition between firms and improve economies of scale. Metals and shipping SOEs were recently identified as among those with the worst financial-risk ratings, so it is not shocking that firms in these sectors would be targeted for early restructuring. Not all recent mergers have improved competitiveness, however. In June, two state-owned train makers, the CSR Corp. and CNR Corp., merged but thus far the year-on-year revenue for the new combined company has fallen. The mergers come in the wake of overall SOE reforms presented by the Chinese government in September that seek to promote private investment, establish investment mechanisms for state capital, and potentially restructure certain SOEs to create national champions. SOEs in the telecom and air transport sectors are now also allegedly being considered for mergers. 3. Anonymous hacks Abe’s site to retaliate for whaling. The hacking group Anonymous took credit for temporarily disabling Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s personal website yesterday, claiming the act was a retaliation for Japan’s decision to resume scientific whaling activities last week. Although an investigation as to whether Anonymous was indeed responsible for the cyberattack is still ongoing, Anonymous has hacked the government sites of other whaling countries before, like Iceland, and a Twitter account representing the group threatened to continue if Japan did not discontinue the program. Despite a 2014 International Court of Justice ruling that deemed one of Japan’s “scientific” whaling programs illegal, last week’s program, which sent a fleet to Antarctica’s Southern Ocean to kill 333 minke whales, is new. One scientist called the whaling campaign the same old story with a different name—like putting “lipstick on a pig.” In total, thirty-three countries, including the United States, have protested against Japan’s new whaling program, and Australia has considered taking legal action to put an end to it. 4. Afghan president visits Pakistan. On Wednesday, leaders from Pakistan and Afghanistan announced plans to resume peace talks between the two governments, although the Taliban has not yet agreed to the talks. The announcement was made at the annual Heart of Asia conference where Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani met. Ghani’s visit to Pakistan coincided with a two-day Taliban siege of the Kandahar airport, which left more than fifty people dead and signaled a growing Taliban resurgence. Ghani risked political criticism by engaging with Pakistan, an unpopular nation among many Afghans, to attempt to restart the peace talks. Tensions persist between the two countries over a variety of issues including whether Pakistan harbors terrorists and Pakistan’s desire to repatriate approximately two million Afghan refugees currently in the country. Rahmatullah Nabil, the head of the Afghan intelligence service, the National Directorate of Security, resigned this week amidst disagreements surrounding Ghani’s policy toward Pakistan. In July, Pakistan hosted an initial round of peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, but the second round was postponed after the announcement of Taliban leader Mullah Omar’s death. 5. Myanmar opens stock exchange. After two decades of delays, Myanmar finally launched its first stock exchange, the Yangon Stock Exchange, on Wednesday. Prior to this, Myanmar was the largest economy in Asia without a stock exchange. The move is an important step towards liberalization for a country that has languished in recent decades due to mismanagement by a military junta; officials hope the exchange will help spur investment and boost the economy. Progress will come slowly, however. Although six companies have already been approved to list on the market, they will not start trading until next spring, and foreign firms are still barred. Bonus: The Islamic State produces a new propaganda song, this time in Chinese. This week, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, released a war chant in Mandarin calling for Chinese Muslim men to take up arms. Al-Hayat Media Center, the ISIS-run media group, released the four-minute acapella chant known in Islam as a “nasheed” that advocates death in service of Islam. By using Mandarin for the song might indicate that ISIS is aiming to attract a broader base of Chinese Muslims, whereas previous propaganda has been aimed at China’s Muslim Uighur minority in the Uyghur language. The spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry said in response to the video that “in the face of terrorism, no country can stand alone.”

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound December 11, 2015 Asia Unbound

China

Friday Asia Update: Top Five Stories for the Week of November 13, 2015

Rachel Brown, Lincoln Davidson, Sungtae “Jacky” Park, Ariella Rotenberg, Ayumi Teraoka, and Gabriel Walker look at the top stories in Asia this week. 1. Afghans protest beheadings. Thousands of protesters gathered outside the presidential palace in Kabul on Wednesday following the beheading of seven Afghans in the southern state of Zabul. The individuals were taken hostage in the central city of Ghazni and relocated as many as fifty-six times before being killed with razor wire. An affiliate of the Islamic State group in Afghanistan is believed to have conducted the beheadings, although it has not yet taken responsibility. The demonstrators carried with them the coffins of the slain civilians who were all Hazaras, a predominately Shia ethnic minority that makes up approximately 15 percent of the Afghan population and had previously been persecuted by the Taliban. Now the group appears to be targeted by other Sunni fundamentalists as well. While the Islamic State group in Afghanistan is only loosely affiliated with the group of the same name in Iraq and Syria, it is estimated to have between one thousand and three thousand fighters now in Afghanistan. The largely peaceful protesters criticized Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s ability to handle the current security situation, and some called for his resignation. The president responded to the protests in a national address in which he pledged to find and punish the responsible parties. 2. Myanmar takes a step towards “democracy.” On November 8, Myanmar held the first national elections for its legislature since the country began its transition from military to civilian rule in 2011. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) has won approximately 80 percent of the contested seats, more or less handing her party a safe majority in parliament and the ability to choose the country’s next president. Both Myanmar’s president, Thein Sein, and army chief, Min Aung Hlaing, have endorsed the results. The military, however, still appoints 25 percent of the seats in both the upper and lower houses of Myanmar’s parliament, effectively giving the military power to block any constitutional amendment, which requires at least 75 percent of the votes. Based on the 2008 constitution, the military also controls Myanmar’s defense, home affairs, and border affairs ministries and could seize power at any moment by declaring “a state of emergency.” Meanwhile, Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD will be left dealing with high expectations and numerous difficult problems, which include social, economic, and ethnic issues, and the question of how Myanmar should scale back its ties with China and build more constructive relations with the West. Overall, the election was a positive development for the country, but the world may find Aung San Suu Kyi far less inspiring over time as she now has to govern and not simply inspire. 3. Nepal’s border blockade results in shortages of food and medicine. Nepal is quickly running low on medicine, fuel, and other essential goods due to a blockade caused by protestors on its border with India. Nepal, a landlocked country, relies heavily on imports from India to sustain its core functions. The leadership at Nepal’s largest public medical facility in Kathmandu predicted that the current supply of medicine will run out within a week. Nepalese leadership blames India for encouraging the protests by Nepal’s ethnic minorities, the Madhesi and Tharu, in the country’s southern plains of Terai. These groups are protesting against the new Nepalese constitution, demanding they retain significant control over the regions in which they live. India denies playing an active role in the behavior of Nepal’s southern ethnic minority groups but has expressed concern over their treatment at the hands of the Nepalese government. Meanwhile, the situation threatens to become a major humanitarian disaster and has provoked commentary by human rights activists as well as United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. 4. Democratic Party of Japan begins to dissolve. The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), Japan’s largest opposition party that ruled the country from 2009 to 2012, appears to be falling apart. On Wednesday, core members of the DPJ, current Policy Chief Goshi Hosono and former President Seiji Maehara held a talk with Kenji Eda, former president of the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), and agreed to work for the dissolution of the two parties by the end of 2015. The move is to form a new opposition force powerful enough to challenge the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition and Komeito in next summer’s Upper House election. The DPJ has been suffering from low support ever since it lost office, and the most recent polls by Japan’s major newspapers show that while support for the LDP hovers between 34 and 40 percent, that for the DPJ only remains between 7 and 8 percent. The conservative force within DPJ has been critical of the current leadership’s pursuit to align with the Japanese Communist Party and its failure to deepen the Diet debate over security legislation bills that passed in September. 5. Congressional delegation visits Tibet. During a legislative exchange trip to China last week, seven members of the U.S. Congress, including Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, visited Tibet. In the past, Pelosi has been an outspoken critic of rights abuses by the Chinese government in the province, saying that ignoring the plight of Tibetans would mean losing “all moral authority” on human rights. The Congressional trip was significant because Tibet has been largely closed to journalists since anti-government protests in 2008 in which hundreds of Tibetans were imprisoned or shot dead by the government. Pelosi and friends weren’t the only U.S. officials in China this week: Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas was in Beijing meeting with Chinese Minister of Public Security Guo Shengkun to plan a December 1–2 meeting between officials from the two countries to discuss cybersecurity. Bonus: Former Chinese taxi driver buys $170 million painting. On Monday, billionaire Liu Yiqian won a heated auction at Christie’s in New York City for an oil painting by Amedeo Modigliani for a whopping $170.4 million—the second-highest price ever paid for a work of art at auction. Growing up in Shanghai, Liu dropped out of middle school and drove a taxi before striking it rich through stock trading, real estate, and pharmaceutical sales during the 1980s and 1990s. Now worth an estimated $1.5 billion, Liu and his wife are avid art collectors and in the past few years have opened two art museums in Shanghai filled with pieces from their collection. One art-world figure gibed Liu for just buying “the most expensive things,” and last year Liu was criticized for sipping tea from a $36 million Ming dynasty cup soon after winning it at auction. Although forgeries abound in the Chinese art market, in recent years fine art has been seen as a relatively safe investment compared to real estate or stocks.

Blog Post by Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound November 13, 2015 Asia Unbound
Afghanistan

Can Afghan Forces Resist the Taliban?

The battle for Kunduz highlights the military and political challenges facing Afghanistan and the narrowly defined U.S. mission there, says CFR’s Stephen Biddle.

Interview with Stephen Biddle and Zachary Laub October 9, 2015 National Security and Defense Program
Afghanistan

Kunduz Airstrike and Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan

This blog post updated an earlier post, and was again coauthored with my research associate, Amelia M. Wolf. Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported that its hospital in Kunduz, Afghanistan was attacked yesterday by air forces several times over the course of a thirty-minute period. The latest MSF communication stated, “At least 16 people died—nine MSF staff, 7 patients from Intensive care unit, among them three children.” Col. Brian Tribus, spokesperson for U.S. forces in Afghanistan, acknowledged airstrikes on Kunduz at 2:15 a.m., noting it was the twelfth in that vicinity since Tuesday, against “individuals threatening” Coalition forces, which "may have resulted in collateral damage to a nearby medical facility." Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter declared, “A full investigation into the tragic incident is underway in coordination with the Afghan government.” According to an anonymous U.S. official, the attack was by an AC-130 gunship at the request of U.S. ground troops coming under fire. This means it was not a pre-planned airstrike, which, under U.S. military policy for Afghanistan, requires a collateral damage estimation to characterize the extent of collateral damage risk, but rather it was a close air support airstrike done at the request of a support ground commander who perceived an imminent threat to Coalition forces. For the last month for which there is data available (August), there were 143 Coalition airstrikes in Afghanistan, the most in ten months. In an effort to document the overall civilian deaths, assign responsibility, and identify the means of lethality, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) has produced 15 reports on the protection of civilians since 2007. The reports are prepared by UNAMA’s Human Rights Unit that is directed by the country representative for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Georgette Gagnon. As the best independent and impartial source of information, we have summarized UNAMA’s grim data for the nearly 22,849 documented civilian deaths in the tables below. Terminology Aerial attack or air strike: Firing ordnance from aircraft, including close air support (CAS) from fixed-wing aircraft, and close combat attack (CCA) from rotary-wing aircraft, and attacks using remotely piloted aircraft (RPA). Anti-Government Elements: ‘Anti-Government Elements’ encompass all individuals and armed groups involved in armed conflict with or armed opposition against the Government of Afghanistan and/or international military forces. They include those who identify as “Taliban” as well as individuals and non-State organized armed groups taking a direct part in hostilities and assuming a variety of labels including the Haqqani Network, Hezb-e-Islami, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Islamic Jihad Union, Lashkari Tayyiba, Jaysh Muhammed, and other militia and armed groups pursuing political, ideological or economic objectives including armed criminal groups directly engaged in hostile acts on behalf a party to the conflict. Civilian: For the purposes of the conduct of hostilities “civilians” are understood, under international humanitarian law, to mean all persons who are not members of military/paramilitary forces or members of organized armed groups who have a continuous combat function, of a party to a conflict. Civilians may lose their protection against attacks for such time as they take direct part in hostilities. A person who is a member of a military/paramilitary force or of an organized armed group and who is hors de combat (wounded, sick, shipwrecked, detained or surrendering) or who belongs to the medical or religious personnel of the armed forces must be protected from attack. ‘Complex attack’: a deliberate and coordinated attack which includes a suicide device (i.e body-borne improvised explosive device, vehicle-borne improvised explosive device), more than one attacker and more than one type of device (i.e. body-borne improvised explosive device and mortars). All three elements must be present for an attack to be considered complex. EOF Incidents: Escalation of Force incidents also referred to as “force protection” incidents: situations where civilians do not pay attention to warnings from military personnel when in the proximity of, approaching or overtaking military convoys or do not follow instructions at check points. ISAF defines EoFs as: “a defensive process which seeks to determine the presence of a threat, its eventual extent and when applicable to match the threat with an appropriate defensive response for Force protection.” IED: Improvised Explosive Device. A bomb constructed and deployed in ways other than in conventional military action. IEDs can take the form of suicide bombs, such as Personal-Borne IEDs (PB-IED), Radio-Controlled IEDs (RC-IEDs), Vehicle-Borne IEDs (VB-IEDs), Suicide Vehicle Borne IEDs (SV-IED), Command-Wire IEDs (CW-IEDs), Victim-Operated IEDs (VO-IEDs), and Pressure-Plate IEDs (PP-IEDs). IM Forces: “International Military Forces” includes all foreign soldiers forming part of ISAF and US Forces Afghanistan (including Operation Enduring Freedom) who are under the command of the Commander of ISAF (COMISAF), who is also Commander of US Forces in Afghanistan. The term also encompasses Special Operations Forces and other foreign intelligence and security forces. Pro-Government Forces: Afghan Government National Security Forces and other forces and groups that act in military or paramilitary counter-insurgency operations and are directly or indirectly under the control of the Government of Afghanistan. These forces include, but are not limited to, the ANA, ANP, ABP, NDS, ALP and other Pro-Government local defense forces. Afghanistan National Security Forces include: ANA, which reports to the Ministry of Defense and is formally incorporated into the armed forces of Afghanistan; Afghan Local Police, which are considered a de facto part of the armed forces because of their function and do not have the legal protection afforded to civilians; and ANP, AUP, and ANBP, which are law enforcement agencies not formally incorporated into the armed forces of Afghanistan that report to the Ministry of Interior. Members of law enforcement agencies lose their protection as civilians when they function as part of the armed forces or directly participate in hostilities. For members of police units which never have combat functions, use of force in self-defense does not result in loss of protection as a civilian. This term also includes international military forces and other foreign intelligence and security forces (see IM Forces). Targeted Killing: Intentional, premeditated and deliberate use of lethal force by States or their agents acting under color of law (or by an organized armed group in armed conflict) against a specific individual who is not in the perpetrator’s physical custody. Although in most circumstances targeted killings violate the right to life, in the exceptional circumstance of armed conflict, they may be legal. UAVs: also defined as Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA). There is no distinction between the terms RPA, UAV and drones. UNAMA may be under reporting the number of civilian casualties from UAVs because UNAMA is not always able to confirm which type of aerial platform was used during an operation (i.e. fixed-wing, rotary-wing or UAV) that resulted in civilian casualties. International military forces do not routinely make information about air operations available due to its classification.

Blog Post by Micah Zenko October 3, 2015 Politics, Power, and Preventive Action

Global

The World Next Week: October 1, 2015

The U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee reviews Afghanistan, Trans-Pacific Partnership talks wrap up in Atlanta, and Germany marks the twenty-fifth anniversary of its reunification.

Podcast with James M. Lindsay and Robert McMahon October 1, 2015 The World Next Week
Afghanistan

Toward a New Afghanistan

Abdullah Abdullah discusses issues facing the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.

Event with Abdullah Abdullah and Robert E. Rubin September 25, 2015
Afghanistan

Taliban in Transition: Three Things to Know

The death of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar will likely further complicate peace talks with the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan, says CFR’s Dan Markey.

Event December 31, 1969
Iraq

Underground Railroad to Save Yazidi Women from the Islamic State Could Offer Critical Intel

It has been nearly a year since the self-proclaimed Islamic State kidnapped an estimated three thousand Yazidi women and children during an attack on their villages in northern Iraq. The Islamic State views these attacks, kidnappings, and killings as justifiable because they consider the Yazidi people—a religious minority group—infidels and devil-worshipers. An English-language magazine article published by the Islamic State noted, “Before [the Devil] reveals his doubts to the weak-minded and weak hearted, one would remember that enslaving the families of the [infidels] and taking their women as concubines is a firmly established aspect of Shariah.” Another document, published by the Islamic State’s “Religious Edicts Council,” reaffirmed that kidnapped and enslaved women were allowed to be bought, sold, and given as gifts by Islamic State members. The Islamic State subjects the Yazidi women to organized rape, sexual assault, forced marriages, forced conversions, sexual slavery, and other abuses during their captivity. Recent testimony from Yazidi women and girls who have escaped confirm this grim reality. In fact, some women reported being bought and sold for $2,000. Most who escape from the Islamic State do so with assistance from Yazidi activists who have created an underground network of safe houses and guides to help women escape. However, these efforts would not be possible without the critical support of former captives, who are knowledgeable about the Islamic State’s territory and are able to provide information about where enslaved women are being held, among other crucial intelligence. Though the Yazidi activists’ work offers a story of heroism in the face of great brutality, this effort alone is not enough to assist an estimated 3,500 Yazidis still held captive. Currently, there are no major initiatives or concentrated efforts to enter Islamic State’s territory to rescue the rest of the women still in the Islamic State’s captivity. However, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has provided some assistance to activists running the underground network. While the UN has requested $498 million to provide food, water, shelter, and basic education and health care to those fleeing the Islamic State, it has thus far received only 30 percent of the total. Therefore, there is limited support for women and children who escape from the Islamic State’s grip. Some of the women are pregnant and bearing the children of their captors. Abortion is not legal in Iraq, and it is not yet clear how much support the women will receive from their communities to raise these children. Many of the escaped women and children now live in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where most of the Yazidis fled in August 2014. The KRG provides health services for escaped Yazidi women, but access to psychological care is limited. In September 2014, a prominent Yazidi religious leader, Baba Sheikh, issued a statement, asking the community to welcome women who escaped from the Islamic State back into the community. This statement reportedly has helped prevent Yazidi women from being negatively stigmatized and allowed them to more easily reintegrate back into daily life. According to a recent Human Rights Watch report, 513 Yazidi women and 304 Yazidi children have escaped from the Islamic State as of March 15, 2015. Thousands more remain enslaved by the Islamic State. From a humanitarian perspective, further efforts to rescue and help these women reintegrate into their communities is urgent. Their experiences also have the potential to offer critical insight into the inner workings of the Islamic State. Those who have escaped could offer a blueprint for how to rescue others as well as critical intelligence that can help combat the Islamic State.

Blog Post by Catherine Powell July 23, 2015 Development Channel
Iraq

Underground Railroad to Save Yazidi Women from the Islamic State Could Offer Critical Intel

It has been nearly a year since the self-proclaimed Islamic State kidnapped an estimated three thousand Yazidi women and children during an attack on their villages in northern Iraq. The Islamic State views these attacks, kidnappings, and killings as justifiable because they consider the Yazidi people—a religious minority group—infidels and devil-worshipers. An English-language magazine article published by the Islamic State noted, “Before [the Devil] reveals his doubts to the weak-minded and weak hearted, one would remember that enslaving the families of the [infidels] and taking their women as concubines is a firmly established aspect of Shariah.” Another document, published by the Islamic State’s “Religious Edicts Council,” reaffirmed that kidnapped and enslaved women were allowed to be bought, sold, and given as gifts by Islamic State members. The Islamic State subjects the Yazidi women to organized rape, sexual assault, forced marriages, forced conversions, sexual slavery, and other abuses during their captivity. Recent testimony from Yazidi women and girls who have escaped confirm this grim reality. In fact, some women reported being bought and sold for $2,000. Most who escape from the Islamic State do so with assistance from Yazidi activists who have created an underground network of safe houses and guides to help women escape. However, these efforts would not be possible without the critical support of former captives, who are knowledgeable about the Islamic State’s territory and are able to provide information about where enslaved women are being held, among other crucial intelligence. Though the Yazidi activists’ work offers a story of heroism in the face of great brutality, this effort alone is not enough to assist an estimated 3,500 Yazidis still held captive. Currently, there are no major initiatives or concentrated efforts to enter Islamic State’s territory to rescue the rest of the women still in the Islamic State’s captivity. However, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has provided some assistance to activists running the underground network. While the UN has requested $498 million to provide food, water, shelter, and basic education and health care to those fleeing the Islamic State, it has thus far received only 30 percent of the total. Therefore, there is limited support for women and children who escape from the Islamic State’s grip. Some of the women are pregnant and bearing the children of their captors. Abortion is not legal in Iraq, and it is not yet clear how much support the women will receive from their communities to raise these children. Many of the escaped women and children now live in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where most of the Yazidis fled in August 2014. The KRG provides health services for escaped Yazidi women, but access to psychological care is limited. In September 2014, a prominent Yazidi religious leader, Baba Sheikh, issued a statement, asking the community to welcome women who escaped from the Islamic State back into the community. This statement reportedly has helped prevent Yazidi women from being negatively stigmatized and allowed them to more easily reintegrate back into daily life. According to a recent Human Rights Watch report, 513 Yazidi women and 304 Yazidi children have escaped from the Islamic State as of March 15, 2015. Thousands more remain enslaved by the Islamic State. From a humanitarian perspective, further efforts to rescue and help these women reintegrate into their communities is urgent. Their experiences also have the potential to offer critical insight into the inner workings of the Islamic State. Those who have escaped could offer a blueprint for how to rescue others as well as critical intelligence that can help combat the Islamic State.

Blog Post by Catherine Powell July 23, 2015 Women Around the World
Afghanistan

Comparing the Islamic State Air War with History

With President Barack Obama visiting the Pentagon to assess progress in the U.S.-led air campaign against the self-declared Islamic State, which enters its twelfth month this week, it is a good time to evaluate a main criticism of the air war: not enough bombs are being dropped. Policymakers, retired military officials, and pundits offer a variety of reasons for this lack of airstrikes. Some claim that Washington-created rules of engagement are restricting whole categories of targets (particularly oil convoys heading to Turkey), others that military lawyers conducting collateral damage estimates are prohibiting strikes that might cause unwanted harm, or that there are no U.S. joint tactical air controllers on the ground to call in precision strikes. The arguments these critics make is that an undue concern for civilian casualties is allowing the Islamic State to survive and thrive in parts of Iraq and Syria. This is despite the fact that, according to a U.S. military estimate from May, some 12,500 Islamic State fighters have been killed and 7,655 pieces of their equipment and infrastructure have been damaged or destroyed. Notably, the most recent U.S. intelligence estimate about the size range of the Islamic State remains between 20,000 and 31,500. Meaning, despite killing 12,500 supporters of the group, a comparable number of indigenous or foreign fighters have already replaced them. This is yet another non-state group that the United States will not be able to eliminate with bombs alone. The inherent difficulty with identifying why there have been relatively so few strikes (more on that below) is that the rules of engagement and collateral damage estimate methods are classified. Moreover, the public does not know the process by which targets are being selected, vetted, and approved by the combined joint task force that is running the air campaign. Today, Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter noted that the same airstrikes in Syria are conducted “with local forces nominating targets, we then validate those targets." According to every air campaign planner who I have spoken with, if those were U.S. forces nominating the targets, there would be an increase in the overall number, but it still would not be markedly higher. The primary reason for the limit in strikes, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey described during a June 17 hearing before the House Armed Services Committee: “The air power’s limitation is not about forward air controller or U.S. service men and women forward. It’s about the intermingling of a significant number of groups.” The U.S. military still remarkably claims that it does not conclusively believe it has killed even one civilian. On June 5, Lt. Gen. John W. Hesterman III, combined forces air component commander, stated: “We haven’t seen any evidence of civilian casualties so far, but we’ll conscientiously look into it as we do every allegation.” Earlier, U.S. Central Command acknowledged that it had “likely” killed two children in a November airstrike in Syria. There are also five ongoing investigations into claims of civilian casualties, according to Gen. Thomas Weidley, chief of staff for Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve. Meanwhile, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a source that some of these same policymakers and pundits cite when it is convenient for their argumentation, recently estimated that coalition airstrikes had killed 162 civilians, including 51 children and 35 women. Finally, while there are basing access limitations, such as those imposed by the government of Turkey regarding the Incirlik Air Base, there is not a limit in the number of available aircraft. As Gen. Dempsey noted a few weeks ago: “397 strike aircraft and 1,600 pilots…are flying these missions over Iraq and Syria.” That is a robust number comparatively speaking, making it more than the seventeen-day Bosnian strikes in 1995, the opening of the Kosovo air war in 1999, or the 2011 regime change campaign in Libya. In addition, coalition pilots have thus far faced a relatively passive air defense system in Syria, although a Predator drone was shot down over Syria on March 17, and another crashed in Iraq on June 22, though the reason why remains unclear. To put Operation Inherent Resolve in some perspective with recent U.S.-led air campaigns, see the chart below. Understand that these are all distinct military operations with their own objectives, combination of coalition partners, and rules of engagement, and that this data is challenging to compile. However, for a military campaign that allegedly intends to inflict a “lasting defeat” on the dispersed and large militant army that is the Islamic State, there is a relatively limited—though understandable given the concern of civilian casualties—number of bombs being dropped each day. STRIKE SORTIES/WEAPONS RELEASES BY AIR CAMPAIGN Total Days Total Sortie Missions Total Strike Sorties Percent Strike Sorties Total Weapons Releases Average Strike Sorties Per Day Average Bombs Dropped Per Day Iraq 1991 43 120,000 42,000 35% 265,000 976 6,163 Bosnia 1995 17 3,515 2,470 70% 1,026 145 60 Kosovo 77 38,004 14,112 37% 28,018 183 364 Afghanistan 76 20,600 6,500 32% 17,500 86 230 Iraq 2003 26 41,000 15,500 38% 27,000 596 1,039 Libya 2011 210 25,944 9,700 37% 7,642 46 36 Iraq/Syria 361 16,164 3,837 24% 15,245 11 43

Blog Post by Micah Zenko July 6, 2015 Politics, Power, and Preventive Action
Americas

Progress on Implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace, and Security

This year marks the fifteenth anniversary of UN Security Council Resolution 1325, a landmark resolution recognizing the importance of women as leaders in the peace and security sector, not merely as victims of conflict. I recently hosted Nahla Valji—the head of women, peace, and security work at UN Women—to discuss international progress on the resolution and the U.S. role in its implementation. In both 2004 and 2005, the president of the Security Council urged member states to adopt national action plans (NAPs) to guide implementation of resolution 1325. So far, fifty countries have done so, including the United States and—most recently—Afghanistan. The evidence from the last fifteen years demonstrates that increased participation of women in peace and security matters and is associated with reduced conflict, violence, and extremism. Afghan civil society groups initiated the call for a national action plan in 2007, and official meetings on the potential document started in 2009. To garner support, activists and policymakers were careful to frame women’s social equality as critical to Afghan development and security priorities. Mahbouba Seraj, a member of the Afghan Women’s Network who worked on the NAP, asked “resistant men to imagine Afghanistan as a half-crippled body. Without the inclusion of 50 percent of its citizens, how could Afghanistan really achieve national peace and reconstruction?” Furthermore, the drafters worked with religious leaders to link the argument with Islam and de-emphasize the NAP’s Western roots. Yet the implementation of the Afghan NAP will likely be dependent on foreign—predominantly Western—governments, as those donor countries will provide the funding for these gender initiatives. As Miki Jacevic, vice chair of the Institute for Inclusive Security, notes in ForeignPolicy.com, “If you don’t have the money for it, we should not kid ourselves that Afghans will implement this.” Enter the U.S. National Action Plan—a document that calls for empowering “half the world’s population as equal partners in preventing conflict and building peace in countries threatened and affected by war, violence, and insecurity.” The U.S. NAP is international in focus, and though it does include mention of the “recruitment, retention, treatment, and integration of women into U.S. Armed Forces,” much of the strategy faces outward, on women outside the United States. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) criticizes this tendency in the NAPs of developed countries in its 2014 study on UNSCR 1325. “National implementation strategies are relevant for all countries, not only for those involved in conflict,” the report reads. “Several studies have already pointed out that including more women in military and peacekeeping structures and operations has the potential to greatly enhance management and military operational effectiveness. “The Women, Peace and Security agenda not only focuses on situations where peace is immediately threatened, but also aims at ensuring higher female participation in the political sphere overall. It is not possible to comply with this agenda by suddenly including more women only in conflict or post-conflict situations—women must be included in everyday political and military life and operations to make their participation meaningful.”

Blog Post by Catherine Powell June 24, 2015 Development Channel
Global

The World Next Week: April 23, 2015

The UN Security Council receives a chemical weapons report on Syria; Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tours the United States and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visits India.

Podcast with James M. Lindsay and Robert McMahon April 23, 2015 The World Next Week
Afghanistan

Why the United States Should Work With India to Stabilize Afghanistan

The international military presence in Afghanistan has shrunk dramatically, and even with a slower pace of troop withdrawal, the country's security situation has already worsened. Iraq's chaos provides a chilling precedent. After fifteen years of involvement in Afghanistan, the United States has a strong interest in a stable future for the fragile democracy. Whether or not it further alters its planned troop withdrawal, the United States should encourage Indian efforts to assist Afghanistan in areas of Indian expertise: democracy, economics, and civilian security. India has been an important economic assistance partner for Afghanistan, and can help in other fields to prevent destabilization. Although Pakistan may object, Washington should make it clear to Islamabad that Indian support for Afghanistan's stability—especially without "boots on the ground"—poses no threat to Pakistani interests and should not be disrupted. A Wary Eye to India's Northwest International combat operations in Afghanistan ended in December 2014. From a 2012 peak of 140,000 troops, the international presence now numbers around 12,000 to support and advise Afghan forces. By the end of 2016 that presence will draw down to several hundred U.S. soldiers staying mainly to protect U.S. facilities. President Obama has decided to slow the pace of troop withdrawal this year, but this change does not restore higher troop levels. Nor will there be a return to anything close to half their peak strength. Afghan forces now have responsibility for security. While a resurgent Taliban has increased attacks within Afghanistan in 2015, in a new development, terrorists from several splinter groups have pledged loyalty to the self-declared Islamic State. The UN special representative in Afghanistan expressed concern to the UN Security Council that the Islamic State has the potential to unite disparate groups under one radical banner. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda, which still has a support base in Afghanistan, has proclaimed a new subsidiary targeting South Asia; and the Pakistan-based Haqqani network and Lashkar-e-Taiba, focused on Indian and American targets, remain active in Afghanistan and beyond. A smaller international security presence, emboldened terrorist networks, and a more active Taliban combine to worsen the security environment. At the same time, China's concerns about terrorism in Xinjiang have spurred Beijing to host reconciliation talks involving the Taliban. India's government watches these developments warily. Viewed from New Delhi, a descent into disorder in Afghanistan recalls the chronic threats India faced in the late 1990s. India fears a return to the days when terrorists used Afghanistan as a base to plot against Indian targets. Preventing that outcome is a top Indian priority—one the United States shares. India's Capabilities Seen as a friend and honest broker by most Afghans, India is the fifth-largest bilateral donor to Afghanistan with over $2 billion in pledged support. Assistance has focused on infrastructure, engineering, training, and humanitarian needs. India constructed the Afghan parliament building, part of the interprovince Ring Road, electrical lines, and the Salma Dam, among others. India has also trained Afghan civil servants in Indian academies. The Confederation of Indian Industry has trained more than one thousand Afghans in carpentry, plumbing, and welding. The Self-Employed Women's Association of India—a women's trade union—has educated more than three thousand Afghan women in microenterprise. India's $2 trillion economy already accounts for 27 percent of Afghan exports—the second-largest export market—and offers enormous opportunity once Afghanistan becomes better connected to India through full implementation of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement. The Indian private sector plays a critical role in expanding commercial ties. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry manages the regional chambers of commerce consultation that was established as a confidence-building measure under the Istanbul Process, a platform for regional dialogue. In 2011, an Indian consortium won the tender for the Hajigak iron ore mine in Bamiyan province. India was the first country to sign a security pact with Afghanistan, the 2011 Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA), committing India to further security training and potential equipment assistance. India has carried out limited training of Afghan forces, always on Indian soil. Former President Hamid Karzai requested arms from India, but after lengthy delays from New Delhi, President Ashraf Ghani dropped the request. A desire not to exacerbate tensions with Islamabad likely played a role. Diplomatic coordination on Afghanistan has become more regionally centered, involving India much more deeply. The International Contact Group on Afghanistan now includes more than fifty countries and regional organizations, and India hosted the January 2014 ministerial. Creation of the Heart of Asia–Istanbul Process in 2011 embedded India in a new diplomatic calendar focused on Afghanistan. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, concerned about Afghanistan's stability, has begun the process of accession for India and Pakistan. They, along with Afghanistan, participate in the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia and the Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan. India can do more, but New Delhi's concerns about poking a Pakistani hornets' nest have limited the security partnership. Pakistan views Indian influence in Afghanistan as inimical to its interests and sees itself as the legitimate regional influence in Afghanistan, even though this view undermines sovereign Afghan initiatives with India. Attacks on the Indian embassy in Kabul in 2008 and 2009 and on the consulate in Herat in 2014 were carried out by the Taliban, Haqqani network, and Lashkar-e-Taiba—the latter two Pakistan-based terrorist groups have links to Pakistani security agencies. Indian officials want to minimize the odds of terrorist attacks on their territory—hence India's limited security role despite the SPA, and New Delhi's focus on conducting security training for Afghans on Indian soil. In order to avoid a Pakistani backlash, India has not sent forces to Afghanistan, except to protect its diplomatic facilities and construction teams. At the same time, Indian officials strongly resist the idea that Pakistan should have veto power over its regional role. That sentiment has been magnified as China becomes more active in Afghanistan; India does not want China to displace India's influence in its own region. Moreover, the Modi government has taken a harder line with Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has crafted a regional doctrine prioritizing ties with all the South Asian Area of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) neighbors. He envisions pulling the region up as India rises. But he also expects Pakistan to crack down on terrorism emanating from its territory—a stance Washington supports—but Islamabad seems unable or unwilling to implement. The United States endorses India's development and economic role in Afghanistan and heralded the India-Afghanistan SPA, but has said little about Indian security assistance. Support across civilian security areas necessary for rule of law and shoring up Afghan forces could be an Indian strength. Islamabad may object. The United States should discuss with Pakistani officials the benefits of a larger Indian role, including in civilian security areas, and be upfront about how greater stability in Afghanistan will benefit Pakistan. Budget support and training in unobjectionable areas like literacy and medicine, particularly with no boots on the ground, has not and will not pose any risk to Pakistan. Reasonable proposals for Indian collaboration in Afghanistan involving no Indian troops on the ground should not be subject to a Pakistani veto. To alleviate Pakistani anxieties, the United States should encourage New Delhi and Kabul to be transparent with Islamabad on their joint efforts. With Pakistan and India now embedded together in regional diplomatic mechanisms, added disincentives exist against Pakistani attempts to deny Indian support to Afghanistan when it would clearly benefit the region through greater stability. The most recent example of this changed dynamic took place at the November 2014 SAARC summit. A regional electricity agreement—supported by all SAARC countries except Pakistan—ultimately secured unanimity after the SAARC countries counseled Pakistan to agree for the betterment of the region. Stabilizing Afghanistan During the Transition New Delhi's interests in a unified, stable, and independent Afghanistan converge with Washington's. The Obama administration should substantially escalate consultation with India and seek greater Indian involvement in areas of its special capacity—democracy, economics, and civilian security—by undertaking the following steps: Preserve Kabul's delicate political equilibrium. India and the United States should draw on their experiences with democracy to advise the unity government in Kabul as it works with a power-sharing structure unanticipated in the constitution. Given his involvement, Secretary of State John Kerry should coordinate with India's foreign minister, especially on the likely challenges of amending the Afghan constitution to reflect the country's new governing structure. Advance regional economic integration. Through its dynamic private sector and its development support, India's assistance to Afghanistan has been fully compatible with the U.S. New Silk Road initiative. New Delhi has become a leader in regional economic mechanisms. U.S. officials should prioritize connecting Afghanistan to the Indian market. This effort should include pressing Pakistan to permit transit trade to the Attari road integrated check post on the Indian edge of the India-Pakistan border to fulfill the letter and spirit of the 2011 Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement. Seek budget support from India for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). It takes around $4 billion annually to support the ANSF. The United States has been the major sponsor over the years and should seek India's help. China has stepped up assistance with a 2014 pledge of $327 million, though not specifically for the ANSF. This topic should be raised by the U.S. ambassador to India at the highest appropriate level and discussed by national security advisors. Partner with India on counter-improvised explosive device (IED) training. India's Institute of IED Management, a Central Reserve Police Force academy, could be a node for ongoing training for Afghan forces, the police in particular. The Pentagon's Joint Improvised Explosive Devise Defeat Organization (JIEDDO) has been developing international partnerships on counter-IED training, and India's institute provides a perfect opportunity to develop a regional partner—especially as JIEDDO shrinks in size. Partner with India on ANSF support-function training. Literacy training remains a critical ANSF need. The U.S. special inspector general assessed the NATO-run $200 million literacy program as having only "limited impact." India runs the world's largest adult literacy program. Military emergency medicine is another area of strong Indian talent. Logistics and supply-chain management are also areas that could help the ANSF perform better in their challenging terrain. The United States and India have had great success with joint training for third countries, such as with agriculture extension training for African countries. Shifting training for these support functions from the current Western contractors model to India, which is closer and has greater regional expertise, would offer more bang for the buck.

Policy Innovation Memorandum by Alyssa Ayres April 9, 2015