Americas

Argentina

  • Budget, Debt, and Deficits
    Argentina End Game
    In a clear and tough decision, the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled against Argentina in its legal battle against holdout creditors.  A good analysis is here. A few initial takeaways: 1.  End-game for Argentina.  While the decision is stayed pending an ongoing Supreme Court appeal, the message seems clear:  If Argentina wants to pay other bondholders, it must pay the holdouts in full (ratable payments).  The contracts are clear and Argentina’s behavior has been unacceptable to the courts.  As Argentina has publicly committed to not paying the holdouts, it’s hard to see how they maintain payments on other debt.  A broad default would have potentially profound consequences for the Argentine economy.  Argentina’s debt prices were broadly stable after the ruling, presumably reflecting that payments can still be made pending the Supreme Court review.  I’m surprised, as the longer term outlook for the debt isn’t good. 2.  Legal risk for counterparties.  If a third party assists Argentina in evading this ruling, they are subject to legal action.  While they can explain themselves, it is hard to see why a bank would want to be a financial counterparty (e.g., a fiscal agent) and take on this kind of legal risk.  This has a chilling effect on Argentina’s ability to deal with international financial markets. 3.  A big deal for the broader market?  Much of the interest in this case has revolved around the ruling’s implications for future restructurings elsewhere.  Does this remedy, and this interpretation of the pari passu clause, encourage holdouts globally?  In this regard, the ruling goes to some length to stress the special circumstances at play here, including Argentina’s non-compliance with past court rulings, as well as the specific (and unusual) formulation of Argentina’s pari passu clause.  At the same time, the arguments here are already spilling over to other cases, as noted here.  Redrafting clauses going forward also doesn’t deal with the legacy of old debt, and in this regard collective action clauses on specific bonds aren’t a solution.  We will have to wait to hear from the lawyers, but at this point my bottom line is that the global implications appear modest.  Countries that are acting in good faith, and have better contracts, will still have holdouts (maybe more now) but can still get their restructurings done and achieve the needed financial relief. 
  • Budget, Debt, and Deficits
    Argentina, Bankruptcy, and Baseball
    The lawyers who understand the issues much better than me are excited (here and here) by the latest order from the NY Court of Appeals in Argentina’s long-running battle with holdout creditors.  After a hearing last Wednesday that by most accounts went extremely badly for Argentina (it’s probably not the best strategy to ask a court to overturn a ruling because you plan to ignore it, making it ineffectual), the Court issued an order giving Argentina a chance to propose alternative terms to its creditors.  By March 29, Argentina is ordered to provide “the precise terms of any alternative payment formula and schedule to which it is prepared to commit.” There is a good chance the offer from the Court will not lead to a breakthrough. The commentary from the Court in the order appears to suggest that Argentina must eventually “make current” the holdout’s bonds, which the government has long made it clear it is not prepared to do.  So the window for a deal may be small.  But it’s possible that the government’s response will open the door for an agreement brokered by the court. There is a broader idea here.  Is the court, in the face of a defiant debtor and in an environment where its rulings have limited force due to sovereign immunity, willing to entertain a counterproposal from Argentina? If so, it could be a step towards a principles-based approach to restructuring in the shadow of bankruptcy.  In forming an offer, Argentina must weigh the cost of additional concessions against the improved odds that its offer is accepted.  Can this lead to a mutually acceptable outcome? Some evidence comes from baseball’s approach to arbitration.  In arbitration, the player and the team each make an offer, and the arbitrator chooses one of the final offers.  The idea of this approach was to encourage more negotiated settlements, because the cost of losing would be high.  In fact, it seems the process works.  This year, for the first time since arbitration was introduced in 1974, no baseball player went to arbitration!  Though 133 players filed for arbitration, all subsequently reached agreement with their team before the hearing. As I have discussed in the past, most of the time, market-based exchanges succeed in helping address a country’s debt problems, even if a few holdout creditors remain and subsequently make life difficult for the country. A concern in this case is that, in the effort to get Argentina to the table, the court would create a rigid precedent that swings the pendulum too far towards the creditor and makes it harder to do exchanges in the future.  Baseball’s experience tells us deals can still be done.
  • Economics
    Kirchners’ New Economic Populism
    Argentina is known for its populists leaders, as well as spectacular economic booms and busts. Yet looking at the economic data of the last fifty years, successive governments have, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, run fairly traditional countercyclical public policies. Government spending generally increased during downturns and slowed during spurts of economic growth. As you can see in the graph below, this trend was more noticeable in the 1960s and 1970s, but continued (if somewhat lessened) throughout the 1990s and early 2000s. World Bank Data This approach though has changed since the Kirchners (first Néstor, now Cristina) took office. Since 2003, and despite mostly good economic times, government spending has just grown,  rising by almost 500 percent in absolute terms. In relative terms, the 2011 levels of 15 percent of GDP are the highest recorded over the past fifty years. World Bank Data The government widely touts its new economic third way. But Argentina is also experiencing dollar shortages, capital flight, and rising inflation (at least unofficially). The question that remains is whether this government will be able to forge a new political path as well, and not be voted out when the coming rainy day hits.
  • Budget, Debt, and Deficits
    Drawing the Wrong Lessons From Argentina’s Debt Mess
    The Financial Times  has joined the chorus of those calling for a new statutory sovereign debt restructuring mechanism (SDRM), citing Argentina’s legal battle with holdout creditors as evidence of a broken system for restructuring sovereign debt.  The SDRM, as most commonly understood, envisages a formal restructuring process, analogous to national bankruptcy law, to deal with the debt of distressed countries.   It was an impractical and unnecessary idea when first raised by the IMF in 2001, and it remains so today. The case for the SDRM rests on the judgment that the current approach for restructuring international debt is chaotic and inefficient, and in particular that holdouts have too much power to prevent good deals from being done.   With SDRM, creditors would negotiate a deal with the country subject to certain principles (e.g., standstill during negotiation, appropriate creditor prioritization, debt sustainability). If the agreement passed official muster, it would be enacted.  The legal protections provided by the SDRM’s treaty-like status would override national law and thus limit the incentives for holdouts. The earlier IMF-led effort to establish the SDRM failed primarily because of the unwillingness of the United States and some other major countries to relinquish sovereignty over its courts to a multilateral organization.  It’s hard to believe that convincing the U.S. Congress to pass SDRM would be any easier today.  One could look to Europe, where a common set of rules for restructuring is envisaged, to test-drive the approach.  But as long as non-EU law debt is outstanding, the problem remains.  Further, most European debt is domestic, its terms subject to the laws of the debtor country, which reduces significantly the holdout problem.  Greece in 2012 was able to bind in all Greek-law bondholders and some international law bonds, leaving only a small amount of holdout debt (which is being paid). Beyond the politics, the current system of debt restructuring–primarily through officially supported debt exchanges–has worked reasonably well.  It has allowed a flexible case-by-case approach, with debt relief that has varied based on country situation and the strength of the adjustment effort.  Most creditors will prefer the certainty of the exchange to a time consuming and costly litigation; holdouts have been further limited by legal innovations in contracts and moral suasion from the international community.  The majority of restructurings do not end in litigation.  If you think these deals have provided too little debt relief, it’s primarily a critique of the principles the IMF and other policymakers have used to define the goals of these deals, rather than a failure of creditor coordination or market failure that would justify a more formal, rules-based approach. Why Argentina Matters Argentina’s battle with holdout creditors from its earlier debt restructuring took a dramatic turn last year when a New York court ruling expanded the remedies available to creditors under the heretofore minor pari passu clause.  The court, frustrated by what it saw as Argentine contempt for its earlier rulings, in essence said that should any creditor receive 100% of what’s due (interest on bonds issued during the restructurings, in this case), then the holdouts must receive 100% of what’s owed them.  More significantly, it sharply expanded the range of related parties that could be drawn into the litigation, including the banks and payments systems that act as intermediaries in the transfer of payment.  The ruling is now being appealed. The problem for most policymakers is not what it means for Argentina, which has been much more aggressive than other countries in defying efforts at a settlement, but its implications for other countries that are acting cooperatively with creditors.  If a financial institution fears that a sovereign might someday have such a ruling against them, and that as a result it may have its assets attached, it will not be willing to be an intermediary.  That logic could cause substantial stress on the sovereign funding market and increase the incentive to holdout.  This concern has led SDRM skeptics, such as Anna Gelpern, to reassess their opposition to SDRM.  If this is the end of sovereign debt restructuring as we know it, then the SDRM is worth the effort. There are several reasons for avoiding a rush to this conclusion.  The ruling could be reversed, or the scope of the remedy narrowed.  Further, contract innovations have the potential to restore an appropriate debtor-creditor balance by redefining and narrowing the pari passu law. Policymakers could reinforce this move through endorsement of the new contracts, as well as more aggressive actions to encourage old debt to be converted to the new terms (one example, also from Gelpern, would require narrowly worded pari passu clauses as a condition of accessing payment systems, though she admits it seems a remote possibility for now).   In sum, the SDRM is an unlikely fix to a system that isn’t now, and may not in the future, be broken.
  • Politics and Government
    Press Freedom and Democracy in Latin America
    Last Wednesday, Ecuador’s Supreme Court upheld sentences handed down in July 2011 for four members of the El Universo newspaper’s staff in the latest chapter of a lengthy and controversial trial. Three of the newspaper’s directors, Carlos, César, and Nícolas Perez, and an editorialist, Emilio Palacio, face three years in jail and $40 million in fines. All have fled the country or sought asylum abroad, and many expect that the fines (if collected) will bankrupt the 90-year-old periodical. The February 2011 article that incited the controversy, entitled “NO a las Mentiras” by Emilio Palacio, alleged that during the September 2010 uprising Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa ordered troops to fire on a hospital filled with unarmed civilians. President Correa vigorously denied these claims and filed a libel suit in March 2011. He claims that the defendants are part of a powerful private media aiming to undermine his government and said a court victory “would represent a great step forward for the liberation of our Americas from one of the largest and most unpunished powers: the corrupt media.” The case has been a messy back-and-forth, full of demands for written retractions, refusals of retraction offers, and accusations of judicial corruption—capturing the attention of international human rights organizations and free press advocates. Newspapers such as the New York Times and the Washington Post have published highly critical op-eds on the case, saying that Correa is conducting “the most comprehensive and ruthless assault on free media under way in the Western Hemisphere.” This is just one of several clashes between Correa and the press. This month Ecuadorian journalists Juan Carlos Calderón and Christian Zurita were both fined $1 million for their book, Gran Hermano, which detailed government contracts given to Correa’s brother Fabricio. The government recently passed a law that bans the media from “either directly or indirectly promoting any given candidate, proposal, options, electoral preferences or political thesis, through articles, specials or any other form of message.” Ecuador isn’t the only Latin American country with tense government-media relations. Hugo Chavez’s battles with opposition-leaning television and radio stations are well-known, and the Kirchners of Argentina have had legendary fights with long-standing newspapers Clarín and La Nación. President Cristina Kirchner recently nationalized the only domestic supplier of newsprint (leading many to worry that this will increase the state’s influence over these news outlets). Granted, in some places and cases the press hasn’t been guilt free. In many countries it is concentrated in a few hands, and those individuals have at times chosen to present biased views of politicians and events. These aggressive attacks on ideological opponents have not fostered a more open and inclusive society. What is true is that a strong, independent, and responsible media is vital for Latin America’s democratic future. The challenge now is to both encourage and enable the press to play the role of watchdog. To become substantive (versus just electoral) democracies, Ecuador and other nations must think beyond the ballot box. I look forward to your feedback via twitter, facebook or in the comments section.
  • Economics
    The Politics of Latin American Energy
    There has been a lot of talk about the shifting geopolitical weight from the east to the west due to the growth of energy resources in Latin America. Ever growing oil discoveries off the coast of Brazil, hundreds of trillions of cubic feet of shale gas in Argentina, and booming energy markets in Colombia and Peru have led many to bet on Latin America as the next energy frontier. Tempering the enthusiasm is the stagnation or even decline in output in other places -- Bolivia, Mexico and Venezuela -- despite the buried potential riches. University of California, San Diego political science professor David Mares was here at the Council last week talking about these issues and had a number of interesting takeaways. One was to move the discussion beyond simple resource nationalism. In nearly all Latin American countries the government is involved in the energy sector, but production, prices, and property rights vary dramatically. The question then is how the political systems work or don’t work to encourage the exploitation of this wealth. Here the on-the-ground realities get quite complicated. What’s interesting as we try to estimate a geopolitical resource shift is that Latin American nations fall somewhere between the two best known energy-based political models. Though Latin American democracies have made great strides in the last two to three decades, they’re still a far cry from the Norways of the world, which have managed huge natural resources with considerable aplomb, using them to spur widespread and inclusive economic growth. Unlike Norway, government institutions are often weak, energy prices can be highly politicized (and subsidized), and nefarious characters such as guerilla groups or drug traffickers vie for control of energy rich areas. But resource rich Latin American nations are still politically more open, and hence less potentially volatile than their Middle Eastern counterparts (think Iran, Iraq, or Libya). Every country in the region besides Cuba is at the very least an electoral democracy (and at best an inclusive and substantive one), and in general Congresses and Courts play a role in policy making. As new resources come online, the real question is whether these countries can strengthen institutions and move closer toward the Norway model, rather than a more autocratic or conflict ridden situation. In that, some legislative gridlock might actually be a good sign, as it ensures more incremental and predictable policy changes in the energy sphere.
  • Brazil
    2011 Trends in Latin America: The Region’s Presidents Battle Cancer
    Presidents Chavez of Venezuela, Fernandez of Argentina and Rousseff of Brazil chat while posing for a family photo during the CELAC summit in Caracas (Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Courtesy Reuters). As 2011 comes to an end, I want to reflect on just a few trends affecting the region over the course of the past year. While these developments certainly have long histories, they have all become more noticeable – and noteworthy – in 2011. To keep it interesting, I will be posting one trend a day for the rest of this week, so check back -- and let me know what you’d add to the list in the comments or via my twitter account (@latintelligence). This hasn’t been a good year health-wise for Latin American leaders. Cristina Kirchner’s recent diagnosis of thyroid cancer is just the latest. The most mysterious, and politically game-changing health challenge is that of Hugo Chávez. Officially, Cuban doctors removed a reportedly “aggressive” pelvic tumor in June, and since then he has undergone chemotherapy and steroid treatment. Though he claims to have conquered the disease, others (including his former doctor) say he may not live more than two years. Last year, Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, and spent four months in chemotherapy and in and out of hospitals. According to the most recent tests, his cancer is in remission. In Brazil, President Dilma Rousseff  continues some treatment for lymphatic cancer (discovered during her 2010 presidential campaign) and former President and still political heavyweight Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has just begun his final round of chemo for throat cancer (diagnosed in October). Pictures of the famously bearded leader now show him hairless, though still beaming. There were also rumors circulating that Evo Morales had a cancerous tumor in his nose, though this was never proven. This type of illness has idiosyncratic, but nevertheless real effects on politics. It can weaken a politician due to their physical absence from the public limelight as well as political backroom negotiations. Lula’s Worker’s Party (PT) will sorely miss his active leadership, especially in the run up to local elections in 2012. Kirchner is expected to make a quick recovery after surgery, though she will turn power over to her Vice President Amado Boudou (a close political confidant) for three weeks in January. It remains to be seen whether these absences will make a significant mark on either country’s internal politics. Javier Corrales, a political scientist at Amherst, has written about a different role for illness, and its potential to strengthen rather than diminish the political patient. Calling it “participatory cancer” he chronicles Chávez’s attempts to turn his illness from a disadvantage to an electoral strength. By brandishing cancer and his fight as an electoral gimmick, the Venezuelan leader distracts voters from more serious problems (such as a floundering economy and rising crime). While continuing to watch the political fallout, let’s hope the new year brings health to all.
  • Climate Change
    Argentina’s Natural Gas Discoveries
    A view of the San Alberto gas plant (David Mercado/Courtesy Reuters). Last December, Argentina’s major oil and gas company YPF discovered some 4.5 trillion cubic feet of unconventional gas in the southwest province of Neuquén. The find has the potential to totally transform the country’s (and the region’s) energy future. It pushes Argentina’s shale gas reserves to 774 trillion cubic feet -- making it the third largest provider of natural gas in the world, after the United States and China. If exploited it would easily cover domestic demand for gas for the foreseeable future and end the recurring and unpopular gas crises that force factories to shut down at times during the winter months.  Argentina would become energy self-sufficient for the first time in nearly a decade. But there are challenges to get the gas out of the ground. First, Argentina’s shortage of water may stand in the way of accessing natural gas reserves. The process of drilling to extract shale gas uses up to 6 million gallons of water for every well drilled, and experts say it will take 38 billion gallons of water to capture natural gas trapped underneath the Vaca Muerta, or “Dead Cow” basin. Another challenge is the government’s oil and gas pricing regime, which has been a major disincentive to investment in recent years. Heavy regulations hold prices down to $2.00-$2.50 per cubic foot of regulated gas -- nowhere near the breakeven price needed to make development worthwhile. Argentina has set up a two-tier system under its “Gas Plus” program -- allowing gas produced by new investment to be sold at much higher prices – in some cases more than double the rate in the domestic market. This has brought in more than a billion dollars from the likes of Exxon, AES and Apache. But these differential prices show how transitory Argentine rules can be. To attract the huge amounts of capital needed to truly develop these gas finds in the coming years, the Argentine government will have to convince investors that the rules won’t change with the political winds. If this happens, it will transform regional gas markets. Bolivia will be the biggest loser. As the region’s current top energy provider, its economy today depends on fueling neighboring Argentina and Brazil. By developing its own gas reserves, Argentina takes away not just a vital customer but also potential foreign direct investment - leaving Bolivia’s economic development model in jeopardy. Another -- much more indirect -- loser is Mexico. The fact that investors are more interested in Argentina -- known for playing fast and loose with property rights and contracts -- than in Mexico, which is ranked Latin America’s most business friendly economy, shows how hamstrung Mexico’s energy sector remains. Without further changes to the system to open up outside funding for exploration and production projects, Mexico risks becoming a spectator on the energy sidelines, with huge ramifications for its overall economy as a result.
  • Economics
    Looking Ahead to Argentina’s October Election
    Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner waves as she enters Congress for the inauguration of the annual ordinary sessions in Buenos Aires (Marcos Brindicci / Courtesy Reuters). By the end of next week, Argentina’s current president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner will have to decide whether she’s in or out of the upcoming presidential race. According to recent polls, if the Peronist leader runs, she will win reelection, likely in the first round. Nearly half of Argentines say they would vote for her if the election were today, and her overall approval ratings top 60 percent. Her opposition is divided and as a result more easily conquered. Ricardo Alfonsín, the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) candidate and son of former President Raúl Alfonsín, leads the pack, but his support is just under 20%.  So far he has been unable to bring other opposition figures into his fold, likely dooming his rise. Argentine presidential races often come down not to a contest between political parties but between different factions within the Peronist party. Here Kirchner’s best-known challenger is Buenos Aires province political boss and former president Eduardo Duhalde. Once an ally, now a fierce opponent, Duhalde has the support of some breakaway Peronist factions. But with political patronage flowing (boosted by a strong economy), it will be difficult to entice many other party leaders away from the Kirchner fold. In the end, assuming Cristina jumps in to the race, it is hers to lose. The challenge will be maintaining her current momentum through October. A bumper soya crop and a booming Brazil should help. Most expect Argentina’s economy to continue growing at a fast clip – 5 to 6 percent -- over  the next four months.  Energy could pose a problem, as years of (government mandated) low prices have both increased demand and limited investment. A cold winter could expose the cracks in the system, causing a (politically challenging) energy crisis. But if Argentina can muddle through without any large shocks,  Cristina looks to remain in the Casa Rosada for another term. The markets seem to have come to this conclusion as well and are voting with their proverbial feet: capital flight increased during the first 5 months of the year.
  • Americas
    Latin American Integration efforts: will they succeed this time?
    With the formation of ALBA, Unasur, IIRSA, and many others, Latin American nations are pushing towards a new era of economic, political, and social integration. But how innovative are these efforts really? Will they differ from the failed attempts of the past? I recently wrote the following article for World Politics Review on the promise and perils of the region’s integration. The Promise and Perils of South American Integration Shannon O’Neil January 12, 2009 World Politics Review In the 21st century so far, regional integration has been one of the most notable elements of South American foreign relations. Picking up speed in recent years, the continent’s heads of state have enthusiastically met in numerous summits, promising increased political, economic, social, and development cooperation. Across the spectrum, governments are expanding current integration frameworks and entering into new agreements. Expectations are no less grand. As Brazil’s President Luis Inacio "Lula" da Silva recently stated, "South America, united, will move the board game of power in the world, not for its own benefit, but for everyone’s." Read the entire article here.
  • Argentina
    Is Argentina the next drug haven?
    When the United States thinks about the drug war, most focus on Colombia and Mexico. Yet concerted efforts in these two countries are leading to problems elsewhere. Argentina may be the next victim. Drugs are available throughout the country, specifically a lower-cost and highly-addictive smokable cocaine residue called paco. News articles highlight the worries of government officials and non-governmental organizations over the social costs of increased drug consumption, both in human lives and increased crime rates. But this may be just the beginning for Argentina. In response to enforcement elsewhere, Argentina is increasingly becoming a drug producing and transit country of methamphetamine in particular, also known as crystal meth or ice. Last July Mexico outlawed imports of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, two common cold medicine drugs that are the basis for crystal meth. In response to Mexico’s crackdown, domestic meth production in the United States rose. But the United States is not alone. Production also seems to have moved to countries with less restrictive import rules for these basic ingredients. Two weeks after Mexico’s ban, nine Mexicans and an Argentine were arrested in Buenos Aires for running a meth lab linked to the Sinaloa cartel. Since then, Argentina has experienced several violent episodes - more reminiscent of Mexico’s than Argentina’s recent past. In two separate cases, one in August and one in October, three Argentine narcotraffickers were abducted, handcuffed, and sprayed with bullets; their bodies left to be found days later. Argentina’s entry into the drug trade has built up in recent years. Twenty-six tons of ephedrine were imported to Argentina in 2007, compared to only 5 tons in 2006. This 5-fold increase still falls below the legal annual maximum of 37 tons, meaning that there is still more potential for legally supplying the ingredients for ultimately illegal drugs. Recent regulations limit importers to registered pharmaceutical laboratories, but a November case shows the weakness of this strategy. Last month Argentine police arrested Mario Roberto Segovia in Rosario, accusing him of trafficking 9 tons of ephedrine worth $35 million dollars. Segovia had received permission from the Argentine government to import the ephedrine used to make the drugs and had recently requested permission to legally import 2.5 kilos more. Following Segovia’s arrest and facing increased international pressure, Argentine policymakers may choose to further regulate ephedrine imports. But this is not Argentina’s only problem. Regulating cash flows will be just as important to halt the nascent illegal drug industry. Here, Argentina’s recent policy decisions are even more worrisome. In a desperate attempt to bring cash into Argentina, the country’s Congress passed a law on December 18, 2008 that provides tax incentives for repatriated undeclared offshore funds. While the country’s basic tax rate on earnings is 35%, the plan offers a 1% rate on money that is repatriated and invested in industry, infrastructure or farming. Funds that are repatriated but invested in other sectors will pay a maximum tax rate of 8%. Argentines have about $140 billion in offshore accounts, so the government is hoping that some of those funds will return, benefiting the economy. But the law also opens a door for money laundering. Faced with increasing economic woes, it is unlikely that the Argentine government will scrutinize the history of incoming investment flows. In effect, Argentina is offering a very attractive rate for money launderers – a mere 1 %. This can only deepen the danger for a country that’s becoming a hub of ephedrine and pseudoephedrine trafficking, and will accelerate drug related violence and corrosion of institutions.
  • Argentina
    A Conversation with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
    Play
    Watch Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, president of Argentina, discuss her country's economic growth since 2001 and the successes of multilateralism in Latin America.
  • Argentina
    A Conversation with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
    Play
    PRESIDENT CRISTINA FERNANDEZ DE KIRCHNER: (In progress) -- of the fall of the twin towers, 9/11 became a milestone which may well vie with the Berlin Wall, which is something we'll leave up to historians to decide in 50 years time, for them to say which of these two events had the deepest impact. I would daresay 9/11 was the watershed. And here we all feel a strong, common identity in terms of foreign relations with the U.S., which is the fight against international terrorism. But while in 2001 the Twin Towers collapsed right at the heart of New York, in the Latin American region, the Argentine Republic was about to collapse -- my own country, a country which had been hailed as a perfect example of the Washington consensus in the field of social affairs. And as a result of the advice of monetarism, the country collapsed in the context of the largest default in memory. This also meant the beginning of a new phase for the region, not just for Argentina. Looking back now in September 2008, almost ending the first decade of the 21st century, we can see what has happened since 2001. We can see what has happened from this perspective from the U.S., the leading power of the world -- that is definitely beyond all debate -- and we can also see what happened in our region. In the international arena, ever since the decision for -- or in terms of multilateralism and when we think about the invasion of Afghanistan, as a result of the attacks on 9/11, we can see what happened starting at that point and what happened since then with broken multilateralism. You know, we have seen unilateral decisions which have been heavily criticized not only within the U.N., but have also come under criticism from natural allies of the U.S. This breaking of multilateralism is, in our view, a decision which has made the world less safe. And we must -- in order to give legitimacy and credibility to the fight against terrorism, we must make sure that decisions are universal and multilateral, acknowledging the United Nations as the appropriate instrument that can blend all of our differences, that can represent us all based on authority, relying not only on might, on the use of force, but on international law. And why is it so important to reaffirm the concept of international law and of democratic civilization? Because that is right at the heart of the fight against terrorism. If we use similar instruments to those used by terrorism, in other words, not abiding by international law, we may run the risk of might, of sheer force not being enough in this fight that is profoundly cultural and political, a fight which we must wage from the democratic world. And we firmly believe that the basic premise must be respect for international humanitarian law and international law as such. That will give us legitimacy in the face of others. Now, what has happened in the region in the meantime? Governments began to emerge in which their leaders, the presidents, began to look more and more like their own peoples, like their constituents. If you look at Evo Morales, President Morales, he looks very much like the vast majority of the Bolivian people. If you look at the face of President Lula, the first trade union leader who became president of the leading Latin American economy, well, he also represents Brazil. And we could continue to look at each of the presidents of our region and we would notice the profound change that's been taking place in the region ever since the failure of the neo-liberal experiments in the region, those monetarist policies. The Argentine Republic -- what about our own country, then? Well, at home, following that formidable disaster of 2001 and from 2003 a slow reconstruction process began which was aimed at paying off that major social debt which had led to unemployment in 2003 reaching 23 percent. Former President Kirchner, who's joining me today, took office with 22 percent of the vote. In Argentina, at the time, the unemployment figures were higher than the percentage of vote he got to become president. It may seem a paradox, but it clearly goes to show what situation our country was in at the time. Argentina's debt accounted for 160 percent of the country's GDP. Poverty levels and extreme poverty levels exceeded -- well, for poverty were about 54 percent and for extreme poverty the figure was 30 percent. Foreign currency reserves at the Central Bank were under $10 billion. After five years in office -- after five and a half years in office, our country went from -- if our country continued to have the growth figures we've had during these last five years, we would be having the most substantial growth period in our entire history. Argentina will be marking its 200th anniversary in 2010. And during the first five years, actually, in 2007, we had the largest growth figures in Argentina's last hundred years. If we continue to have similar figures, during the rest of this year, we could be marking the end or the continuation of the most virtuous circle in our entire history as a country. Now, what other developments have there been in the region, the region which Argentina has withdrawn from? Because as a result of the currency board system, this convertibility system which was a fiction that led us to believe that the Argentine peso had the same value as the U.S. dollar, there was this idea that a legislative fiction could allow Argentina to become part of the First World in a varied commerce. As part of this disaster of 2001, following that period, Argentina decided to go back to its own region and to make a strong bet on integration and on Mercosur, the common market of the South. And the country decided to actually feel part of the region. So how do things now stand? I think for all the difficulties, we can now say that the region is acting, in terms of crisis management and of the handling of its foreign relations, in quite an exceptional manner. Latin America is rebuilding multilateralism, which is not to say that our countries, South American countries or governments are all exactly the same or think exactly the same. But we can now display a quality which is that despite our differences in our historical experiences, our different policies, political affinities and ideologies, we can pursue a much level approach to serious conflicts, which would have otherwise been impossible to solve. And we can offer appropriate responses in terms of resolution and always abiding by international law. Let me give you some examples. We had too very serious incidents. One was the incident between Colombia and Ecuador, when the Colombian armed forces entered Ecuadorean territory, chasing a FARC leader and killed this leader. Well, this is in the public knowledge. We don't need to go into that. But the fact is that the region really started to have serious crisis signs. And again we seemed to be hearing the war drums beating, as had been the case so many other times before, in other situations which had led to conflict, in a region that has always been red hot. So our countries gathered within the (Rio ?) groups in the Dominican Republic, and in a true exercise of multilateral politics and of conflict management and coordination of positions we were able to put back on track the situation which seemed unsolvable, and we were able to arrive at a solution abiding by international law and with OAS interventions. And of late, the situation in Bolivia -- which again, in an exercise of multilateralism by UNASUR, all of the presidents of South America except for President Alan Garcia, who sent his foreign minister, since he couldn't attend himself, at an emblematic venue for the region's politics at the Palacio de la Moneda in Santiago de Chile, we were also able to get all the presidents with the different orientations and visions, but with a common vision to achieve peace in the region and to prevent secession in Bolivia. So we were able to somewhat put the conflict on the path towards resolution. So one major conclusion of the development of events in our region since 2001 is that we have succeeded in building growth as emerging countries. We have been able to improve the quality of life of our constituents and we have been able to build diplomacy. We have been able to enhance multilateralism, so as to help resolve conflict. Finally, my old country, the Argentine Republic, which is part of the Latin American region and an active member, and which has issues it needs to -- it needed to sort out, which had to do with the default in 2001, which lead to problems for our country. Again, the close affinities, when you think of our common views on the fight against terrorism and the fight against drug trafficking, which unites us with the United States. But the fact remains that since the default of 2001, Argentina had certain problems in its relations with the rest of the world due to the events it had gone through. And how did we settle the issues of default in Argentina? First, during the year 2004, we proposed a restructuring of the debts, which was accepted by a significant majority of Argentine debtholders and which successfully led up to the restructuring in 2005. After that came the payment, along with the Republic of Brazil, of the debts we had had since 1957 to the International Monetary Fund, a -- qualitatively in a country which had consistently engaged in successive refinancing and in putting off payment of its commitments, and before 2003, always in a framework of constant indebtedness and an administration based on twin deficits of trade and fiscal balance deficit. The administration which took office in 2003 made debt reduction and twin surplus policies state policies. So we set about thoroughly and painstakingly reducing our debt then, because we knew that this was a very important problem not just because a debtor must pay their debts in all contexts, but essentially because this is also a way to boost your relations based on credibility and trust vis-a-vis the rest of the world. The third stage began some days ago in the city of Buenos Aires when, as president of the Argentine Republic, I announced that we intended to pay our debt to the Paris Club -- a debt, ladies and gentlemen, which had a cutoff date of December 10th, 1983. Forty-five percent of the Paris Club debt dates back to the (pure ?) triad, to that cut-off date. The first restructuring took place in 1991 and 1992. Well, that was defaulted on along with the rest of the debt in 2001. Today here I am giving you the fresh news during this visit to the Council on Foreign Relations. Here and now I am very excited and optimistic to tell you that we have received in Buenos Aires a proposal from three very important international banks dealing with two basic matters; the first one, the situation of the holdouts, the bondholders who did not enter the debt swap in 2005. And these banks have submitted a very interesting proposal to us to deal with this matter, subject to terms which are much more favorable to the Argentine Republic than those of the swap in 2005, which goes to show one first point, the success of the design, which perhaps wasn't quite understood at the time because Argentina had this bad reputation as someone who lied and didn't honor the commitment. But thanks to this proposal and to our own performance, we feel very optimistic in view of this possible approach, based on three key components. First is this proposal submitted by these three banks on behalf of the holdouts; the bondholders, that is, who didn't agree to the terms of the 2005 debt swap. And the proposal now made is a lot more favorable to Argentina than that of 2005. And the second part of the proposal made by these three banks relates to the refinancing of PGS (sp), which, you know, is what was negotiated in 2001, the PGR (sp), as we call them in Argentina, the secured loans, which were negotiated by the administration of 2001 in Argentina, which allows refinancing for Argentina for the fiscal years 2009 and 2010. Now, what do these two essential matters actually mean? Well, first, it has to do with the definitive normalization of Argentina and its relations with the rest of the world. This consists of three steps: First is the proposal submission, the actual proposal made by these three leading banks. The second part is the analysis, which I myself, as head of the executive, will have to perform with the help of my ministers. And the third part is, if we find this proposal feasible and acceptable, our government will have to refer this to the Argentine congress, because as you may know, the government debt law enacted in 2005 requires that the congress of Argentina be consulted and deal with these matters. So this applies to the bondholders who didn't answer the debt swap in 2005. So we feel optimistic and enthusiastic because we have been able to rebuild a country that had been institutionally, economically and socially almost on the brink of extinction. The images of 2001 in the city of Buenos Aires with people pounding at the doors of banks, with bankers who couldn't even walk down the streets, business people and politicians who couldn't walk out in the street, you know, with Argentine leaders traveling to other countries and getting complaints about the Paris Club or the situation with the (hold outs ?) -- so everyone had something to demand or claim from Argentina, some reason to be cross with our country. And I think if you look at that situation back then and now consider possibility of the successful completion of this proposal, that will definitely be a milestone. And I think this contributes not only to the welfare of my own country, Argentina, but it also allows us all to review and reconsider dogmas and paradigms which were hailed as gospel truth in the contemporary world. And in light of the events -- not only the policies pursued by Argentina but also what is going on even here, at the heart of the world's economy, in New York, we should all first make a point of what I call intellectual humility. And secondly, we should understand the need to revise our concepts. A while ago, over lunch, I talked about my perceptions with regard to what's going on in the markets here, again at the heart of world capitalism, in Wall Street. And I was saying that capitalism was designed to earn money but through the production of goods, of services and of knowledge. But money, on its own, won't make money. Money you earn by producing goods, services or knowledge, which may be demanded by societies. I believe -- and of course, this is an opinion that has a lot to do with my own views as political leader -- I think the distortion of the financial system has been to think that without producing services, goods and knowledge, merely by adopting sophisticated instruments, you could reproduce money. That is not the logic of capitalism. The logic of capitalism is to produce money or rather to earn money by producing goods, services and knowledge demanded by society through technological innovation or other means. But that is the rationale. And that is the rationale that has made this country, the United States, a great country. And again I said this over lunch, this country was not built on a gambling-based economy. The greatness of this country and its preeminent position in the world -- (audio break) -- what we call financial gambling in Buenos Aires. (Remarks in Spanish) -- is the word in Spanish. That's quite an Argentine word. This country, even due to its religious beliefs and convictions, always made a point of producing, of creating genuine works and wealth. I think and again I don't want to try to invent a theory here. But you know, it's good to try and take a look at some of the issues that are our concern today. One of them is the lack of regulation of -- (inaudible) -- financial assistance that developed with no controls literally. And consider this. Central banks around the world exercise strict control over their own operation, well, the Basel rules and so on, what we all know about. But in parallel, you get to see the emergence of mutual funds that, subject to no regulation or control, enter and exit countries. And I'm not talking only about financial institutions but also certain activities and commodities and energy. And a lot of distortions are created in the basic fundamentals of economics. And we need to consider the importance of energy and food, in the world, and the sort of tragedies that may arise unless we properly deal with this. So we should agree on common ground in our discussions and our relations. That is, the exercise of multilateralism as one of the pillars to build a safer world. And on the other hand, we need to reconsider and rethink instruments, economic instruments that may allow us to go back to a more real economy, in which work and production again become the central basis to build up wealth. I don't think we should be frightened or be dramatic. But we should at least rethink and reflect upon these matters. Argentina, and I will be concluding now, so that we can go into our Q&A. Argentina has come a long way since 2001. It has acknowledged its membership in its own region. It has pursued multilateralism. It has discovered that it can use its own instruments to settle conflicts that seemed impossible to solve and, through a policy of our administration, of its own resources and based on setting its own policies, is now making a point of rebuilding credibility and trust as a country, through debt reduction, thanks to an accumulation of genuine resources and transparent conduct. I thank you. Have a good afternoon. (Applause.) MODERATOR: Well, thank you for that thorough, you know, and far-ranging and thoughtful address. Many of the prerogatives of my job -- and ask one or two questions, then we will quickly open it up. You've come to the United States approximately 45 days, give or take, before an election in this country. If you could advise the next president of the United States, what is it you would want to see in the way of changes or continuity when it comes to U.S. policy towards your part of the world? KIRCHNER: Well, in terms of -- and please allow me to say I do not intend to meddle with the internal political life of the U.S., particularly only a few days away from your election on November the 4th. But I must confess that I was never this excited to follow both the primaries of the Democrats and Republicans, as well as both conventions. And this is not just because I'm now president of Argentina, but because as a citizen of the world I recognize the importance the new president of the U.S. will have in a world as ours. What do we actually expect at the universal level from the next U.S. administration? I will say a reconstruction of multilateralism, which is not to do only with our own convictions -- which of course, have a lot to do with it, too. You know, the fact that we believe that you can give more legitimacy to the fight against terrorism or against drug trafficking, a fight which must be waged by all democratic societies, but also we think that the decision to pursue unilateral policies, as was the case with this current administration, that has had an impact on the world and has actually had a negative impact on the interests of the U.S. as a country. I would dare say, based on the polls one sees, the image of the U.S. around the world has been negatively affected, and this is something we talked about during our luncheon. And politics is about results. You know, there might have been (good ?) intentions, but politics is about results. MODERATOR: Wouldn't Argentina -- wouldn't Argentina act unilaterally if it felt that its national interests required it? KIRCHNER: In terms of aggression? You mean a war? Well, I would dare say respect for international law, observance of international law in order to accept the rules -- (inaudible) -- would prevent us from doing that. In fact, we have made a strong contribution for no country in the region to take such (status ?). Look, if that were may view, I could have justified Ecuador's responding with an aggression to Colombia due to Colombia's invasion of its territory, but my own attitude, the attitude of Argentina, has been at all times to go all the way back to undo that and to prevent the adoption of unilateral measures by Colombia against -- by Ecuador against Colombia, because there were higher interests in the region which had to do precisely with preserving peace. Preventive action or preventive war is not something we endorse as a measure, and even less so outside the framework of international law. I believe that unilateralism has been bad for the United States. And let me point out the difference between the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan with the consensus of all nations and with the support of all nations, as opposed to the U.S. when dealing with the situation in Iraq, when even some of the allies of the U.S. withdrew their support. I'm not talking about intentions, only about results. Again, in politics you may have the best intentions, but if the results are not good and you are left in isolation, it means that your policies have perhaps not been the best ones. I try to remain as objective as possible. So, what do we expect from the U.S. with regard to our own region? Well, first, I would say, a different look and a different presence in a region. In a way, the United States has distanced itself from our region, and we think that there should be a different position and look at South America. You know, this is something we raised at a meeting of the Americas, I believe in Monterrey. Back then, it was a time when the situation of emerging countries was not yet the one we now get to see in economic or growth terms, and we even talked about the help of the United States. I actually talked to a representative, who is now a senator, a Democrat. He also -- can I mention him or can I say who he was or -- (inaudible). I remember I met with him while he was still a representative; he is now a senator. And I remember he was in favor of setting up a Latin America fund to give assistance to the region with a different, more intensive U.S. presence. The governments of the region now reflect the nature of their own peoples. Again, as I was saying earlier, presidents have never been so close to their peoples and have never resembled their people as much. So we would like more presence from the U.S. in our region. That's what we would expect from your new president. MODERATOR: I have a lot more questions, but I will show uncharacteristic restraint and not -- people have raised their hands. Try to keep your questions short. We'll go to Baldas (sp). QUESTIONER: Thank you. Baldas (sp) from -- (affiliation inaudible). Madame President, you made a very strong cause for multilateralism. I think many of us here -- (inaudible). I'd be interested in your views about the working U.S.-United Nations -- (inaudible) -- multilateral framework. It seems to be quite broken, oftentimes. (Inaudible.) MODERATOR: When you get around to Security Council reform, does Argentina believe it deserves a seat on the Security Council? KIRCHNER: Well, you know, the reform of multilateral organizations, whether multilateral lending agencies or the U.N. itself has been a recurrent topic for Argentina and is something we mention at all U.N. addresses ever since 2003. I think we need to recreate the core, the heart of the Security Council, primarily because the U.N. -- the Security Council was created in light of the charter of San Francisco in a post-war world in which there was bipolarity. This tension between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, which was the hallmark of the whole second half of the 20th century, right up to the fall of the Berlin Wall, made the Security Council necessary, due to the constant tension in face of the nuclear threats in the world. If someone did something outside this framework, there might be some kind of universal nuclear holocaust. And that tension, which was always played out within the Security Council with the veto right, enabled more or less acceptable functioning of the body during the second half of the 20th century. Now, what is the problem? When the Berlin Wall fell and the bipolarity ended, with the U.S. clearly rising above the rest of the world as the leading economic, scientific power, also in terms of its weapons and technology, becoming the absolute number-one world power, that created an imbalance which can no longer be processed within the Security Council, and this is why unilateral policies arise. You can exercise force unilaterally when there's no other force to counteract and resist you now. This is a principle of physics, but which must also apply to politics. In other words, American unilateralism is a result of its own repositioning as the one and only world power. But therein lies as well the problem of a possible weakening of someone who is too strong, although this may sound like a contradiction. This is why, in my own view, it is necessary to reengineer the U.N. and essentially the Security Council. If I were to have a formula as to what the right Security Council would be to guarantee the ballot box, I might be the president of the U.S. and not the other candidates, because that would be finding the way to achieve balance in the 21st century, as was the case with the Security Council to create balance in a highly conflicted world after the Second World War. But the fact that we need to tackle Security Council reform, that we need to give participation opportunities to the new regional players, is out of the question. We must do that. But we should also bear in mind that this breakage of bipolarity and the emergence of this undisputed power that made the current Security Council no longer as adequate. Now, knowing that that is a problem doesn't mean that we have a solution. But it is certainly a big step towards finding a solution as part of an open debate and discussion among all countries. MODERATOR: Yes, ma'am. All the way in the back. QUESTIONER: Thank you, President Kirchner. Kathy Hicks (sp) with Citizen Rights Watch. Argentina was recently elected to the U.N. Human Rights Council, a body that's been extremely ineffective at holding human rights abusers to account, in part because of the ability of abusers to say that initiatives are directed from the north. Will Argentina be a voice (of ?) leadership within the council on ongoing crises like those in Georgia, Somalia and Zimbabwe currently? KIRCHNER: Well, you know that the policy on absolute respect for human rights is one of the basic pillars of our policy and is actually a state policy. Argentina, as you will all know, had one of the most terrible dictatorships in memory, which ended up with 30,000 people disappeared and 500 children who have not yet been found. We have already found 94 children of disappeared persons thanks to the wonderful work of the Mothers of Plaza de Mayo, and tomorrow there will be a ceremony headed by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. Argentina and another 73 countries have signed the Treaty Against Enforced Disappearances, which, by the way, we have given a strong boost to. We are actually, as you pointed out, on the U.N. Human Rights Council. But only four countries have so far ratified the treaty -- Albania, Argentina, Honduras and Mexico. I think over the next few days, the Republic of France will be ratifying it as well. But the fact is that Argentina's commitment to respect for human rights is -- it's unlimited and unfaltering. And I think we have made quite a lot of progress. Last year I had a meeting with Ann Arbour in Geneva -- with Louise Arbour in Geneva. And, you know, when talking about the Initiative of the Right to the Truth, which was adopted in the U.N., something that had been encouraged by our country, other countries that hadn't been able to advance, you know, we actually had laws that -- (new ?) obedience and -- (inaudible) -- laws, which prevented prosecution of those responsible for the genocide. Actually Mrs. Arbour, the human rights commissioner of the U.N., has acknowledged the key role played by Argentina is the field of human rights by leading to the adoption and creation of instruments such as the Right to the Truth or the Treaty on the Enforced Disappearance of Persons, which at least are instruments to fight for human rights in a world in which human rights are violated on a daily basis. Our commitment -- and I think here again, we may be an example -- we should always be accountable for our actions, and it is true that until the administration of President Nestor Kirchner, impunity had prevailed in Argentina. We had some pre-democratic issues, as I like to say, because people who commit crimes may evade justice and punishment, but in Argentina, those who had committed genocide evaded punishment and the law, not because they escaped, but because one of the powers -- the legislative -- had enacted laws that afforded impunity, which, as I always say, took us back to a pre-democratic stage in our society. When the state itself institutes, punishes and legislates for impunity, it's a pre-democratic state, you know. So I think that the progress in the field of human rights made in Argentina, which has been recognized around the world, and these instruments I have referred to and any other actions we may undertake will help us along. Let me give you some more interesting news. We're working on a worldwide genetic database to work on issues of enforced disappearances, something that we are also going to support at the international level. This is something we think all countries should adopt. And we should take concrete steps every day in this unfaltering fight for the observance of human rights. Thank you for that question, because it gives a chance to tackle an issue which, to my country and due to its own historical experience and to myself personally and due to my political beliefs, represents a policy of state. Thank you. MODERATOR: (Inaudible) -- for one more question. Is there a question on Latin America? I specifically want to make sure that we focus on this part of the world. John? Brief question and hopefully a brief answer, and I apologize for taking a few minutes late, but we started a few minutes late. QUESTIONER: Thank you. I'm John Brademas, a member of the U.S. Congress -- (inaudible). In 1961, I made a trip to Buenos Aires as a member of Congress to look at the state of universities in Argentina, and I've left with your assistant a copy of the report. Can you comment on the -- I was not a senator, I was a congressman). Can you comment on the state of universities in Argentina today and say anything about the possibility of developing relationships with universities in the United States? KIRCHNER: In 1961 when you visited, I was still very little, so I can't remember your visit. But Argentine universities have substantially improved, just as all of the educational system has improved through greater financing. That was also one of the achievements of the administration of President Nestor Kirchner. And actually I had to vote as a senator on the bill on education financing, and for the first time we're going to allocate 6 percent of GDP to education. Of course, our GDP's substantially higher than it was at the time the law was first adopted, and now we can approach the issue of education in Argentina in quite a different way. Universities now have larger projects. The universities and faculty get more money and better pay. We are developing a scholarship system which is aimed at favoring study choices that we consider essential for Argentina's current production model. Argentina used to be a country with a very strong bias towards social sciences, while leaving aside hard science, which is essential for technological development. This is why we are developing a very intensive scholarship program for our high school students to be able to pursue studies in fields that Argentina needs for its production model, and this also targets low-income families with support from the government. And we are making a very strong point of this policy. Besides, one of the economic policies that has most grown in Argentina over the last five years has been in the field of technological software and IT and telecommunications companies. Those are the companies with the largest number of birth rates, and they have grown exponentially. Why is this so? Because our country stands out in Latin America due to its highly qualified human resources. We are the only Latin American country to have three Nobel Prize winners in scientific fields. You can check other Latin American countries and you may find Nobel Prizes for literature, but not for medicine or biology or what we call the strictly scientific world. You know, the public, free universal education system since the end of the 19th century and the upward social mobility typical of this very substantial middle class places us in a very interesting position in Latin America in terms of the education of our human resources. MODERATOR: Well, I want to thank President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner for getting us off to such an interesting start this week, one of the first women presidents we've ever been able to welcome a the Council on Foreign Relations. So thank you very much. (Applause.) .STX   (C) COPYRIGHT 2008, FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC., 1000 VERMONT AVE. 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THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. ------------------------- PRESIDENT CRISTINA FERNANDEZ DE KIRCHNER: (In progress) -- of the fall of the twin towers, 9/11 became a milestone which may well vie with the Berlin Wall, which is something we'll leave up to historians to decide in 50 years time, for them to say which of these two events had the deepest impact. I would daresay 9/11 was the watershed. And here we all feel a strong, common identity in terms of foreign relations with the U.S., which is the fight against international terrorism. But while in 2001 the Twin Towers collapsed right at the heart of New York, in the Latin American region, the Argentine Republic was about to collapse -- my own country, a country which had been hailed as a perfect example of the Washington consensus in the field of social affairs. And as a result of the advice of monetarism, the country collapsed in the context of the largest default in memory. This also meant the beginning of a new phase for the region, not just for Argentina. Looking back now in September 2008, almost ending the first decade of the 21st century, we can see what has happened since 2001. We can see what has happened from this perspective from the U.S., the leading power of the world -- that is definitely beyond all debate -- and we can also see what happened in our region. In the international arena, ever since the decision for -- or in terms of multilateralism and when we think about the invasion of Afghanistan, as a result of the attacks on 9/11, we can see what happened starting at that point and what happened since then with broken multilateralism. You know, we have seen unilateral decisions which have been heavily criticized not only within the U.N., but have also come under criticism from natural allies of the U.S. This breaking of multilateralism is, in our view, a decision which has made the world less safe. And we must -- in order to give legitimacy and credibility to the fight against terrorism, we must make sure that decisions are universal and multilateral, acknowledging the United Nations as the appropriate instrument that can blend all of our differences, that can represent us all based on authority, relying not only on might, on the use of force, but on international law. And why is it so important to reaffirm the concept of international law and of democratic civilization? Because that is right at the heart of the fight against terrorism. If we use similar instruments to those used by terrorism, in other words, not abiding by international law, we may run the risk of might, of sheer force not being enough in this fight that is profoundly cultural and political, a fight which we must wage from the democratic world. And we firmly believe that the basic premise must be respect for international humanitarian law and international law as such. That will give us legitimacy in the face of others. Now, what has happened in the region in the meantime? Governments began to emerge in which their leaders, the presidents, began to look more and more like their own peoples, like their constituents. If you look at Evo Morales, President Morales, he looks very much like the vast majority of the Bolivian people. If you look at the face of President Lula, the first trade union leader who became president of the leading Latin American economy, well, he also represents Brazil. And we could continue to look at each of the presidents of our region and we would notice the profound change that's been taking place in the region ever since the failure of the neo-liberal experiments in the region, those monetarist policies. The Argentine Republic -- what about our own country, then? Well, at home, following that formidable disaster of 2001 and from 2003 a slow reconstruction process began which was aimed at paying off that major social debt which had led to unemployment in 2003 reaching 23 percent. Former President Kirchner, who's joining me today, took office with 22 percent of the vote. In Argentina, at the time, the unemployment figures were higher than the percentage of vote he got to become president. It may seem a paradox, but it clearly goes to show what situation our country was in at the time. Argentina's debt accounted for 160 percent of the country's GDP. Poverty levels and extreme poverty levels exceeded -- well, for poverty were about 54 percent and for extreme poverty the figure was 30 percent. Foreign currency reserves at the Central Bank were under $10 billion. After five years in office -- after five and a half years in office, our country went from -- if our country continued to have the growth figures we've had during these last five years, we would be having the most substantial growth period in our entire history. Argentina will be marking its 200th anniversary in 2010. And during the first five years, actually, in 2007, we had the largest growth figures in Argentina's last hundred years. If we continue to have similar figures, during the rest of this year, we could be marking the end or the continuation of the most virtuous circle in our entire history as a country. Now, what other developments have there been in the region, the region which Argentina has withdrawn from? Because as a result of the currency board system, this convertibility system which was a fiction that led us to believe that the Argentine peso had the same value as the U.S. dollar, there was this idea that a legislative fiction could allow Argentina to become part of the First World in a varied commerce. As part of this disaster of 2001, following that period, Argentina decided to go back to its own region and to make a strong bet on integration and on Mercosur, the common market of the South. And the country decided to actually feel part of the region. So how do things now stand? I think for all the difficulties, we can now say that the region is acting, in terms of crisis management and of the handling of its foreign relations, in quite an exceptional manner. Latin America is rebuilding multilateralism, which is not to say that our countries, South American countries or governments are all exactly the same or think exactly the same. But we can now display a quality which is that despite our differences in our historical experiences, our different policies, political affinities and ideologies, we can pursue a much level approach to serious conflicts, which would have otherwise been impossible to solve. And we can offer appropriate responses in terms of resolution and always abiding by international law. Let me give you some examples. We had too very serious incidents. One was the incident between Colombia and Ecuador, when the Colombian armed forces entered Ecuadorean territory, chasing a FARC leader and killed this leader. Well, this is in the public knowledge. We don't need to go into that. But the fact is that the region really started to have serious crisis signs. And again we seemed to be hearing the war drums beating, as had been the case so many other times before, in other situations which had led to conflict, in a region that has always been red hot. So our countries gathered within the (Rio ?) groups in the Dominican Republic, and in a true exercise of multilateral politics and of conflict management and coordination of positions we were able to put back on track the situation which seemed unsolvable, and we were able to arrive at a solution abiding by international law and with OAS interventions. And of late, the situation in Bolivia -- which again, in an exercise of multilateralism by UNASUR, all of the presidents of South America except for President Alan Garcia, who sent his foreign minister, since he couldn't attend himself, at an emblematic venue for the region's politics at the Palacio de la Moneda in Santiago de Chile, we were also able to get all the presidents with the different orientations and visions, but with a common vision to achieve peace in the region and to prevent secession in Bolivia. So we were able to somewhat put the conflict on the path towards resolution. So one major conclusion of the development of events in our region since 2001 is that we have succeeded in building growth as emerging countries. We have been able to improve the quality of life of our constituents and we have been able to build diplomacy. We have been able to enhance multilateralism, so as to help resolve conflict. Finally, my old country, the Argentine Republic, which is part of the Latin American region and an active member, and which has issues it needs to -- it needed to sort out, which had to do with the default in 2001, which lead to problems for our country. Again, the close affinities, when you think of our common views on the fight against terrorism and the fight against drug trafficking, which unites us with the United States. But the fact remains that since the default of 2001, Argentina had certain problems in its relations with the rest of the world due to the events it had gone through. And how did we settle the issues of default in Argentina? First, during the year 2004, we proposed a restructuring of the debts, which was accepted by a significant majority of Argentine debtholders and which successfully led up to the restructuring in 2005. After that came the payment, along with the Republic of Brazil, of the debts we had had since 1957 to the International Monetary Fund, a -- qualitatively in a country which had consistently engaged in successive refinancing and in putting off payment of its commitments, and before 2003, always in a framework of constant indebtedness and an administration based on twin deficits of trade and fiscal balance deficit. The administration which took office in 2003 made debt reduction and twin surplus policies state policies. So we set about thoroughly and painstakingly reducing our debt then, because we knew that this was a very important problem not just because a debtor must pay their debts in all contexts, but essentially because this is also a way to boost your relations based on credibility and trust vis-a-vis the rest of the world. The third stage began some days ago in the city of Buenos Aires when, as president of the Argentine Republic, I announced that we intended to pay our debt to the Paris Club -- a debt, ladies and gentlemen, which had a cutoff date of December 10th, 1983. Forty-five percent of the Paris Club debt dates back to the (pure ?) triad, to that cut-off date. The first restructuring took place in 1991 and 1992. Well, that was defaulted on along with the rest of the debt in 2001. Today here I am giving you the fresh news during this visit to the Council on Foreign Relations. Here and now I am very excited and optimistic to tell you that we have received in Buenos Aires a proposal from three very important international banks dealing with two basic matters; the first one, the situation of the holdouts, the bondholders who did not enter the debt swap in 2005. And these banks have submitted a very interesting proposal to us to deal with this matter, subject to terms which are much more favorable to the Argentine Republic than those of the swap in 2005, which goes to show one first point, the success of the design, which perhaps wasn't quite understood at the time because Argentina had this bad reputation as someone who lied and didn't honor the commitment. But thanks to this proposal and to our own performance, we feel very optimistic in view of this possible approach, based on three key components. First is this proposal submitted by these three banks on behalf of the holdouts; the bondholders, that is, who didn't agree to the terms of the 2005 debt swap. And the proposal now made is a lot more favorable to Argentina than that of 2005. And the second part of the proposal made by these three banks relates to the refinancing of PGS (sp), which, you know, is what was negotiated in 2001, the PGR (sp), as we call them in Argentina, the secured loans, which were negotiated by the administration of 2001 in Argentina, which allows refinancing for Argentina for the fiscal years 2009 and 2010. Now, what do these two essential matters actually mean? Well, first, it has to do with the definitive normalization of Argentina and its relations with the rest of the world. This consists of three steps: First is the proposal submission, the actual proposal made by these three leading banks. The second part is the analysis, which I myself, as head of the executive, will have to perform with the help of my ministers. And the third part is, if we find this proposal feasible and acceptable, our government will have to refer this to the Argentine congress, because as you may know, the government debt law enacted in 2005 requires that the congress of Argentina be consulted and deal with these matters. So this applies to the bondholders who didn't answer the debt swap in 2005. So we feel optimistic and enthusiastic because we have been able to rebuild a country that had been institutionally, economically and socially almost on the brink of extinction. The images of 2001 in the city of Buenos Aires with people pounding at the doors of banks, with bankers who couldn't even walk down the streets, business people and politicians who couldn't walk out in the street, you know, with Argentine leaders traveling to other countries and getting complaints about the Paris Club or the situation with the (hold outs ?) -- so everyone had something to demand or claim from Argentina, some reason to be cross with our country. And I think if you look at that situation back then and now consider possibility of the successful completion of this proposal, that will definitely be a milestone. And I think this contributes not only to the welfare of my own country, Argentina, but it also allows us all to review and reconsider dogmas and paradigms which were hailed as gospel truth in the contemporary world. And in light of the events -- not only the policies pursued by Argentina but also what is going on even here, at the heart of the world's economy, in New York, we should all first make a point of what I call intellectual humility. And secondly, we should understand the need to revise our concepts. A while ago, over lunch, I talked about my perceptions with regard to what's going on in the markets here, again at the heart of world capitalism, in Wall Street. And I was saying that capitalism was designed to earn money but through the production of goods, of services and of knowledge. But money, on its own, won't make money. Money you earn by producing goods, services or knowledge, which may be demanded by societies. I believe -- and of course, this is an opinion that has a lot to do with my own views as political leader -- I think the distortion of the financial system has been to think that without producing services, goods and knowledge, merely by adopting sophisticated instruments, you could reproduce money. That is not the logic of capitalism. The logic of capitalism is to produce money or rather to earn money by producing goods, services and knowledge demanded by society through technological innovation or other means. But that is the rationale. And that is the rationale that has made this country, the United States, a great country. And again I said this over lunch, this country was not built on a gambling-based economy. The greatness of this country and its preeminent position in the world -- (audio break) -- what we call financial gambling in Buenos Aires. (Remarks in Spanish) -- is the word in Spanish. That's quite an Argentine word. This country, even due to its religious beliefs and convictions, always made a point of producing, of creating genuine works and wealth. I think and again I don't want to try to invent a theory here. But you know, it's good to try and take a look at some of the issues that are our concern today. One of them is the lack of regulation of -- (inaudible) -- financial assistance that developed with no controls literally. And consider this. Central banks around the world exercise strict control over their own operation, well, the Basel rules and so on, what we all know about. But in parallel, you get to see the emergence of mutual funds that, subject to no regulation or control, enter and exit countries. And I'm not talking only about financial institutions but also certain activities and commodities and energy. And a lot of distortions are created in the basic fundamentals of economics. And we need to consider the importance of energy and food, in the world, and the sort of tragedies that may arise unless we properly deal with this. So we should agree on common ground in our discussions and our relations. That is, the exercise of multilateralism as one of the pillars to build a safer world. And on the other hand, we need to reconsider and rethink instruments, economic instruments that may allow us to go back to a more real economy, in which work and production again become the central basis to build up wealth. I don't think we should be frightened or be dramatic. But we should at least rethink and reflect upon these matters. Argentina, and I will be concluding now, so that we can go into our Q&A. Argentina has come a long way since 2001. It has acknowledged its membership in its own region. It has pursued multilateralism. It has discovered that it can use its own instruments to settle conflicts that seemed impossible to solve and, through a policy of our administration, of its own resources and based on setting its own policies, is now making a point of rebuilding credibility and trust as a country, through debt reduction, thanks to an accumulation of genuine resources and transparent conduct. I thank you. Have a good afternoon. (Applause.) MODERATOR: Well, thank you for that thorough, you know, and far-ranging and thoughtful address. Many of the prerogatives of my job -- and ask one or two questions, then we will quickly open it up. You've come to the United States approximately 45 days, give or take, before an election in this country. If you could advise the next president of the United States, what is it you would want to see in the way of changes or continuity when it comes to U.S. policy towards your part of the world? KIRCHNER: Well, in terms of -- and please allow me to say I do not intend to meddle with the internal political life of the U.S., particularly only a few days away from your election on November the 4th. But I must confess that I was never this excited to follow both the primaries of the Democrats and Republicans, as well as both conventions. And this is not just because I'm now president of Argentina, but because as a citizen of the world I recognize the importance the new president of the U.S. will have in a world as ours. What do we actually expect at the universal level from the next U.S. administration? I will say a reconstruction of multilateralism, which is not to do only with our own convictions -- which of course, have a lot to do with it, too. You know, the fact that we believe that you can give more legitimacy to the fight against terrorism or against drug trafficking, a fight which must be waged by all democratic societies, but also we think that the decision to pursue unilateral policies, as was the case with this current administration, that has had an impact on the world and has actually had a negative impact on the interests of the U.S. as a country. I would dare say, based on the polls one sees, the image of the U.S. around the world has been negatively affected, and this is something we talked about during our luncheon. And politics is about results. You know, there might have been (good ?) intentions, but politics is about results. MODERATOR: Wouldn't Argentina -- wouldn't Argentina act unilaterally if it felt that its national interests required it? KIRCHNER: In terms of aggression? You mean a war? Well, I would dare say respect for international law, observance of international law in order to accept the rules -- (inaudible) -- would prevent us from doing that. In fact, we have made a strong contribution for no country in the region to take such (status ?). Look, if that were may view, I could have justified Ecuador's responding with an aggression to Colombia due to Colombia's invasion of its territory, but my own attitude, the attitude of Argentina, has been at all times to go all the way back to undo that and to prevent the adoption of unilateral measures by Colombia against -- by Ecuador against Colombia, because there were higher interests in the region which had to do precisely with preserving peace. Preventive action or preventive war is not something we endorse as a measure, and even less so outside the framework of international law. I believe that unilateralism has been bad for the United States. And let me point out the difference between the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan with the consensus of all nations and with the support of all nations, as opposed to the U.S. when dealing with the situation in Iraq, when even some of the allies of the U.S. withdrew their support. I'm not talking about intentions, only about results. Again, in politics you may have the best intentions, but if the results are not good and you are left in isolation, it means that your policies have perhaps not been the best ones. I try to remain as objective as possible. So, what do we expect from the U.S. with regard to our own region? Well, first, I would say, a different look and a different presence in a region. In a way, the United States has distanced itself from our region, and we think that there should be a different position and look at South America. You know, this is something we raised at a meeting of the Americas, I believe in Monterrey. Back then, it was a time when the situation of emerging countries was not yet the one we now get to see in economic or growth terms, and we even talked about the help of the United States. I actually talked to a representative, who is now a senator, a Democrat. He also -- can I mention him or can I say who he was or -- (inaudible). I remember I met with him while he was still a representative; he is now a senator. And I remember he was in favor of setting up a Latin America fund to give assistance to the region with a different, more intensive U.S. presence. The governments of the region now reflect the nature of their own peoples. Again, as I was saying earlier, presidents have never been so close to their peoples and have never resembled their people as much. So we would like more presence from the U.S. in our region. That's what we would expect from your new president. MODERATOR: I have a lot more questions, but I will show uncharacteristic restraint and not -- people have raised their hands. Try to keep your questions short. We'll go to Baldas (sp). QUESTIONER: Thank you. Baldas (sp) from -- (affiliation inaudible). Madame President, you made a very strong cause for multilateralism. I think many of us here -- (inaudible). I'd be interested in your views about the working U.S.-United Nations -- (inaudible) -- multilateral framework. It seems to be quite broken, oftentimes. (Inaudible.) MODERATOR: When you get around to Security Council reform, does Argentina believe it deserves a seat on the Security Council? KIRCHNER: Well, you know, the reform of multilateral organizations, whether multilateral lending agencies or the U.N. itself has been a recurrent topic for Argentina and is something we mention at all U.N. addresses ever since 2003. I think we need to recreate the core, the heart of the Security Council, primarily because the U.N. -- the Security Council was created in light of the charter of San Francisco in a post-war world in which there was bipolarity. This tension between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, which was the hallmark of the whole second half of the 20th century, right up to the fall of the Berlin Wall, made the Security Council necessary, due to the constant tension in face of the nuclear threats in the world. If someone did something outside this framework, there might be some kind of universal nuclear holocaust. And that tension, which was always played out within the Security Council with the veto right, enabled more or less acceptable functioning of the body during the second half of the 20th century. Now, what is the problem? When the Berlin Wall fell and the bipolarity ended, with the U.S. clearly rising above the rest of the world as the leading economic, scientific power, also in terms of its weapons and technology, becoming the absolute number-one world power, that created an imbalance which can no longer be processed within the Security Council, and this is why unilateral policies arise. You can exercise force unilaterally when there's no other force to counteract and resist you now. This is a principle of physics, but which must also apply to politics. In other words, American unilateralism is a result of its own repositioning as the one and only world power. But therein lies as well the problem of a possible weakening of someone who is too strong, although this may sound like a contradiction. This is why, in my own view, it is necessary to reengineer the U.N. and essentially the Security Council. If I were to have a formula as to what the right Security Council would be to guarantee the ballot box, I might be the president of the U.S. and not the other candidates, because that would be finding the way to achieve balance in the 21st century, as was the case with the Security Council to create balance in a highly conflicted world after the Second World War. But the fact that we need to tackle Security Council reform, that we need to give participation opportunities to the new regional players, is out of the question. We must do that. But we should also bear in mind that this breakage of bipolarity and the emergence of this undisputed power that made the current Security Council no longer as adequate. Now, knowing that that is a problem doesn't mean that we have a solution. But it is certainly a big step towards finding a solution as part of an open debate and discussion among all countries. MODERATOR: Yes, ma'am. All the way in the back. QUESTIONER: Thank you, President Kirchner. Kathy Hicks (sp) with Citizen Rights Watch. Argentina was recently elected to the U.N. Human Rights Council, a body that's been extremely ineffective at holding human rights abusers to account, in part because of the ability of abusers to say that initiatives are directed from the north. Will Argentina be a voice (of ?) leadership within the council on ongoing crises like those in Georgia, Somalia and Zimbabwe currently? KIRCHNER: Well, you know that the policy on absolute respect for human rights is one of the basic pillars of our policy and is actually a state policy. Argentina, as you will all know, had one of the most terrible dictatorships in memory, which ended up with 30,000 people disappeared and 500 children who have not yet been found. We have already found 94 children of disappeared persons thanks to the wonderful work of the Mothers of Plaza de Mayo, and tomorrow there will be a ceremony headed by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. Argentina and another 73 countries have signed the Treaty Against Enforced Disappearances, which, by the way, we have given a strong boost to. We are actually, as you pointed out, on the U.N. Human Rights Council. But only four countries have so far ratified the treaty -- Albania, Argentina, Honduras and Mexico. I think over the next few days, the Republic of France will be ratifying it as well. But the fact is that Argentina's commitment to respect for human rights is -- it's unlimited and unfaltering. And I think we have made quite a lot of progress. Last year I had a meeting with Ann Arbour in Geneva -- with Louise Arbour in Geneva. And, you know, when talking about the Initiative of the Right to the Truth, which was adopted in the U.N., something that had been encouraged by our country, other countries that hadn't been able to advance, you know, we actually had laws that -- (new ?) obedience and -- (inaudible) -- laws, which prevented prosecution of those responsible for the genocide. Actually Mrs. Arbour, the human rights commissioner of the U.N., has acknowledged the key role played by Argentina is the field of human rights by leading to the adoption and creation of instruments such as the Right to the Truth or the Treaty on the Enforced Disappearance of Persons, which at least are instruments to fight for human rights in a world in which human rights are violated on a daily basis. Our commitment -- and I think here again, we may be an example -- we should always be accountable for our actions, and it is true that until the administration of President Nestor Kirchner, impunity had prevailed in Argentina. We had some pre-democratic issues, as I like to say, because people who commit crimes may evade justice and punishment, but in Argentina, those who had committed genocide evaded punishment and the law, not because they escaped, but because one of the powers -- the legislative -- had enacted laws that afforded impunity, which, as I always say, took us back to a pre-democratic stage in our society. When the state itself institutes, punishes and legislates for impunity, it's a pre-democratic state, you know. So I think that the progress in the field of human rights made in Argentina, which has been recognized around the world, and these instruments I have referred to and any other actions we may undertake will help us along. Let me give you some more interesting news. We're working on a worldwide genetic database to work on issues of enforced disappearances, something that we are also going to support at the international level. This is something we think all countries should adopt. And we should take concrete steps every day in this unfaltering fight for the observance of human rights. Thank you for that question, because it gives a chance to tackle an issue which, to my country and due to its own historical experience and to myself personally and due to my political beliefs, represents a policy of state. Thank you. MODERATOR: (Inaudible) -- for one more question. Is there a question on Latin America? I specifically want to make sure that we focus on this part of the world. John? Brief question and hopefully a brief answer, and I apologize for taking a few minutes late, but we started a few minutes late. QUESTIONER: Thank you. I'm John Brademas, a member of the U.S. Congress -- (inaudible). In 1961, I made a trip to Buenos Aires as a member of Congress to look at the state of universities in Argentina, and I've left with your assistant a copy of the report. Can you comment on the -- I was not a senator, I was a congressman). Can you comment on the state of universities in Argentina today and say anything about the possibility of developing relationships with universities in the United States? KIRCHNER: In 1961 when you visited, I was still very little, so I can't remember your visit. But Argentine universities have substantially improved, just as all of the educational system has improved through greater financing. That was also one of the achievements of the administration of President Nestor Kirchner. And actually I had to vote as a senator on the bill on education financing, and for the first time we're going to allocate 6 percent of GDP to education. Of course, our GDP's substantially higher than it was at the time the law was first adopted, and now we can approach the issue of education in Argentina in quite a different way. Universities now have larger projects. The universities and faculty get more money and better pay. We are developing a scholarship system which is aimed at favoring study choices that we consider essential for Argentina's current production model. Argentina used to be a country with a very strong bias towards social sciences, while leaving aside hard science, which is essential for technological development. This is why we are developing a very intensive scholarship program for our high school students to be able to pursue studies in fields that Argentina needs for its production model, and this also targets low-income families with support from the government. And we are making a very strong point of this policy. Besides, one of the economic policies that has most grown in Argentina over the last five years has been in the field of technological software and IT and telecommunications companies. Those are the companies with the largest number of birth rates, and they have grown exponentially. Why is this so? Because our country stands out in Latin America due to its highly qualified human resources. We are the only Latin American country to have three Nobel Prize winners in scientific fields. You can check other Latin American countries and you may find Nobel Prizes for literature, but not for medicine or biology or what we call the strictly scientific world. You know, the public, free universal education system since the end of the 19th century and the upward social mobility typical of this very substantial middle class places us in a very interesting position in Latin America in terms of the education of our human resources. MODERATOR: Well, I want to thank President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner for getting us off to such an interesting start this week, one of the first women presidents we've ever been able to welcome a the Council on Foreign Relations. So thank you very much. (Applause.) .STX   (C) COPYRIGHT 2008, FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC., 1000 VERMONT AVE. 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THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. ------------------------- PRESIDENT CRISTINA FERNANDEZ DE KIRCHNER: (In progress) -- of the fall of the twin towers, 9/11 became a milestone which may well vie with the Berlin Wall, which is something we'll leave up to historians to decide in 50 years time, for them to say which of these two events had the deepest impact. I would daresay 9/11 was the watershed. And here we all feel a strong, common identity in terms of foreign relations with the U.S., which is the fight against international terrorism. But while in 2001 the Twin Towers collapsed right at the heart of New York, in the Latin American region, the Argentine Republic was about to collapse -- my own country, a country which had been hailed as a perfect example of the Washington consensus in the field of social affairs. And as a result of the advice of monetarism, the country collapsed in the context of the largest default in memory. This also meant the beginning of a new phase for the region, not just for Argentina. Looking back now in September 2008, almost ending the first decade of the 21st century, we can see what has happened since 2001. We can see what has happened from this perspective from the U.S., the leading power of the world -- that is definitely beyond all debate -- and we can also see what happened in our region. In the international arena, ever since the decision for -- or in terms of multilateralism and when we think about the invasion of Afghanistan, as a result of the attacks on 9/11, we can see what happened starting at that point and what happened since then with broken multilateralism. You know, we have seen unilateral decisions which have been heavily criticized not only within the U.N., but have also come under criticism from natural allies of the U.S. This breaking of multilateralism is, in our view, a decision which has made the world less safe. And we must -- in order to give legitimacy and credibility to the fight against terrorism, we must make sure that decisions are universal and multilateral, acknowledging the United Nations as the appropriate instrument that can blend all of our differences, that can represent us all based on authority, relying not only on might, on the use of force, but on international law. And why is it so important to reaffirm the concept of international law and of democratic civilization? Because that is right at the heart of the fight against terrorism. If we use similar instruments to those used by terrorism, in other words, not abiding by international law, we may run the risk of might, of sheer force not being enough in this fight that is profoundly cultural and political, a fight which we must wage from the democratic world. And we firmly believe that the basic premise must be respect for international humanitarian law and international law as such. That will give us legitimacy in the face of others. Now, what has happened in the region in the meantime? Governments began to emerge in which their leaders, the presidents, began to look more and more like their own peoples, like their constituents. If you look at Evo Morales, President Morales, he looks very much like the vast majority of the Bolivian people. If you look at the face of President Lula, the first trade union leader who became president of the leading Latin American economy, well, he also represents Brazil. And we could continue to look at each of the presidents of our region and we would notice the profound change that's been taking place in the region ever since the failure of the neo-liberal experiments in the region, those monetarist policies. The Argentine Republic -- what about our own country, then? Well, at home, following that formidable disaster of 2001 and from 2003 a slow reconstruction process began which was aimed at paying off that major social debt which had led to unemployment in 2003 reaching 23 percent. Former President Kirchner, who's joining me today, took office with 22 percent of the vote. In Argentina, at the time, the unemployment figures were higher than the percentage of vote he got to become president. It may seem a paradox, but it clearly goes to show what situation our country was in at the time. Argentina's debt accounted for 160 percent of the country's GDP. Poverty levels and extreme poverty levels exceeded -- well, for poverty were about 54 percent and for extreme poverty the figure was 30 percent. Foreign currency reserves at the Central Bank were under $10 billion. After five years in office -- after five and a half years in office, our country went from -- if our country continued to have the growth figures we've had during these last five years, we would be having the most substantial growth period in our entire history. Argentina will be marking its 200th anniversary in 2010. And during the first five years, actually, in 2007, we had the largest growth figures in Argentina's last hundred years. If we continue to have similar figures, during the rest of this year, we could be marking the end or the continuation of the most virtuous circle in our entire history as a country. Now, what other developments have there been in the region, the region which Argentina has withdrawn from? Because as a result of the currency board system, this convertibility system which was a fiction that led us to believe that the Argentine peso had the same value as the U.S. dollar, there was this idea that a legislative fiction could allow Argentina to become part of the First World in a varied commerce. As part of this disaster of 2001, following that period, Argentina decided to go back to its own region and to make a strong bet on integration and on Mercosur, the common market of the South. And the country decided to actually feel part of the region. So how do things now stand? I think for all the difficulties, we can now say that the region is acting, in terms of crisis management and of the handling of its foreign relations, in quite an exceptional manner. Latin America is rebuilding multilateralism, which is not to say that our countries, South American countries or governments are all exactly the same or think exactly the same. But we can now display a quality which is that despite our differences in our historical experiences, our different policies, political affinities and ideologies, we can pursue a much level approach to serious conflicts, which would have otherwise been impossible to solve. And we can offer appropriate responses in terms of resolution and always abiding by international law. Let me give you some examples. We had too very serious incidents. One was the incident between Colombia and Ecuador, when the Colombian armed forces entered Ecuadorean territory, chasing a FARC leader and killed this leader. Well, this is in the public knowledge. We don't need to go into that. But the fact is that the region really started to have serious crisis signs. And again we seemed to be hearing the war drums beating, as had been the case so many other times before, in other situations which had led to conflict, in a region that has always been red hot. So our countries gathered within the (Rio ?) groups in the Dominican Republic, and in a true exercise of multilateral politics and of conflict management and coordination of positions we were able to put back on track the situation which seemed unsolvable, and we were able to arrive at a solution abiding by international law and with OAS interventions. And of late, the situation in Bolivia -- which again, in an exercise of multilateralism by UNASUR, all of the presidents of South America except for President Alan Garcia, who sent his foreign minister, since he couldn't attend himself, at an emblematic venue for the region's politics at the Palacio de la Moneda in Santiago de Chile, we were also able to get all the presidents with the different orientations and visions, but with a common vision to achieve peace in the region and to prevent secession in Bolivia. So we were able to somewhat put the conflict on the path towards resolution. So one major conclusion of the development of events in our region since 2001 is that we have succeeded in building growth as emerging countries. We have been able to improve the quality of life of our constituents and we have been able to build diplomacy. We have been able to enhance multilateralism, so as to help resolve conflict. Finally, my old country, the Argentine Republic, which is part of the Latin American region and an active member, and which has issues it needs to -- it needed to sort out, which had to do with the default in 2001, which lead to problems for our country. Again, the close affinities, when you think of our common views on the fight against terrorism and the fight against drug trafficking, which unites us with the United States. But the fact remains that since the default of 2001, Argentina had certain problems in its relations with the rest of the world due to the events it had gone through. And how did we settle the issues of default in Argentina? First, during the year 2004, we proposed a restructuring of the debts, which was accepted by a significant majority of Argentine debtholders and which successfully led up to the restructuring in 2005. After that came the payment, along with the Republic of Brazil, of the debts we had had since 1957 to the International Monetary Fund, a -- qualitatively in a country which had consistently engaged in successive refinancing and in putting off payment of its commitments, and before 2003, always in a framework of constant indebtedness and an administration based on twin deficits of trade and fiscal balance deficit. The administration which took office in 2003 made debt reduction and twin surplus policies state policies. So we set about thoroughly and painstakingly reducing our debt then, because we knew that this was a very important problem not just because a debtor must pay their debts in all contexts, but essentially because this is also a way to boost your relations based on credibility and trust vis-a-vis the rest of the world. The third stage began some days ago in the city of Buenos Aires when, as president of the Argentine Republic, I announced that we intended to pay our debt to the Paris Club -- a debt, ladies and gentlemen, which had a cutoff date of December 10th, 1983. Forty-five percent of the Paris Club debt dates back to the (pure ?) triad, to that cut-off date. The first restructuring took place in 1991 and 1992. Well, that was defaulted on along with the rest of the debt in 2001. Today here I am giving you the fresh news during this visit to the Council on Foreign Relations. Here and now I am very excited and optimistic to tell you that we have received in Buenos Aires a proposal from three very important international banks dealing with two basic matters; the first one, the situation of the holdouts, the bondholders who did not enter the debt swap in 2005. And these banks have submitted a very interesting proposal to us to deal with this matter, subject to terms which are much more favorable to the Argentine Republic than those of the swap in 2005, which goes to show one first point, the success of the design, which perhaps wasn't quite understood at the time because Argentina had this bad reputation as someone who lied and didn't honor the commitment. But thanks to this proposal and to our own performance, we feel very optimistic in view of this possible approach, based on three key components. First is this proposal submitted by these three banks on behalf of the holdouts; the bondholders, that is, who didn't agree to the terms of the 2005 debt swap. And the proposal now made is a lot more favorable to Argentina than that of 2005. And the second part of the proposal made by these three banks relates to the refinancing of PGS (sp), which, you know, is what was negotiated in 2001, the PGR (sp), as we call them in Argentina, the secured loans, which were negotiated by the administration of 2001 in Argentina, which allows refinancing for Argentina for the fiscal years 2009 and 2010. Now, what do these two essential matters actually mean? Well, first, it has to do with the definitive normalization of Argentina and its relations with the rest of the world. This consists of three steps: First is the proposal submission, the actual proposal made by these three leading banks. The second part is the analysis, which I myself, as head of the executive, will have to perform with the help of my ministers. And the third part is, if we find this proposal feasible and acceptable, our government will have to refer this to the Argentine congress, because as you may know, the government debt law enacted in 2005 requires that the congress of Argentina be consulted and deal with these matters. So this applies to the bondholders who didn't answer the debt swap in 2005. So we feel optimistic and enthusiastic because we have been able to rebuild a country that had been institutionally, economically and socially almost on the brink of extinction. The images of 2001 in the city of Buenos Aires with people pounding at the doors of banks, with bankers who couldn't even walk down the streets, business people and politicians who couldn't walk out in the street, you know, with Argentine leaders traveling to other countries and getting complaints about the Paris Club or the situation with the (hold outs ?) -- so everyone had something to demand or claim from Argentina, some reason to be cross with our country. And I think if you look at that situation back then and now consider possibility of the successful completion of this proposal, that will definitely be a milestone. And I think this contributes not only to the welfare of my own country, Argentina, but it also allows us all to review and reconsider dogmas and paradigms which were hailed as gospel truth in the contemporary world. And in light of the events -- not only the policies pursued by Argentina but also what is going on even here, at the heart of the world's economy, in New York, we should all first make a point of what I call intellectual humility. And secondly, we should understand the need to revise our concepts. A while ago, over lunch, I talked about my perceptions with regard to what's going on in the markets here, again at the heart of world capitalism, in Wall Street. And I was saying that capitalism was designed to earn money but through the production of goods, of services and of knowledge. But money, on its own, won't make money. Money you earn by producing goods, services or knowledge, which may be demanded by societies. I believe -- and of course, this is an opinion that has a lot to do with my own views as political leader -- I think the distortion of the financial system has been to think that without producing services, goods and knowledge, merely by adopting sophisticated instruments, you could reproduce money. That is not the logic of capitalism. The logic of capitalism is to produce money or rather to earn money by producing goods, services and knowledge demanded by society through technological innovation or other means. But that is the rationale. And that is the rationale that has made this country, the United States, a great country. And again I said this over lunch, this country was not built on a gambling-based economy. The greatness of this country and its preeminent position in the world -- (audio break) -- what we call financial gambling in Buenos Aires. (Remarks in Spanish) -- is the word in Spanish. That's quite an Argentine word. This country, even due to its religious beliefs and convictions, always made a point of producing, of creating genuine works and wealth. I think and again I don't want to try to invent a theory here. But you know, it's good to try and take a look at some of the issues that are our concern today. One of them is the lack of regulation of -- (inaudible) -- financial assistance that developed with no controls literally. And consider this. Central banks around the world exercise strict control over their own operation, well, the Basel rules and so on, what we all know about. But in parallel, you get to see the emergence of mutual funds that, subject to no regulation or control, enter and exit countries. And I'm not talking only about financial institutions but also certain activities and commodities and energy. And a lot of distortions are created in the basic fundamentals of economics. And we need to consider the importance of energy and food, in the world, and the sort of tragedies that may arise unless we properly deal with this. So we should agree on common ground in our discussions and our relations. That is, the exercise of multilateralism as one of the pillars to build a safer world. And on the other hand, we need to reconsider and rethink instruments, economic instruments that may allow us to go back to a more real economy, in which work and production again become the central basis to build up wealth. I don't think we should be frightened or be dramatic. But we should at least rethink and reflect upon these matters. Argentina, and I will be concluding now, so that we can go into our Q&A. Argentina has come a long way since 2001. It has acknowledged its membership in its own region. It has pursued multilateralism. It has discovered that it can use its own instruments to settle conflicts that seemed impossible to solve and, through a policy of our administration, of its own resources and based on setting its own policies, is now making a point of rebuilding credibility and trust as a country, through debt reduction, thanks to an accumulation of genuine resources and transparent conduct. I thank you. Have a good afternoon. (Applause.) MODERATOR: Well, thank you for that thorough, you know, and far-ranging and thoughtful address. Many of the prerogatives of my job -- and ask one or two questions, then we will quickly open it up. You've come to the United States approximately 45 days, give or take, before an election in this country. If you could advise the next president of the United States, what is it you would want to see in the way of changes or continuity when it comes to U.S. policy towards your part of the world? KIRCHNER: Well, in terms of -- and please allow me to say I do not intend to meddle with the internal political life of the U.S., particularly only a few days away from your election on November the 4th. But I must confess that I was never this excited to follow both the primaries of the Democrats and Republicans, as well as both conventions. And this is not just because I'm now president of Argentina, but because as a citizen of the world I recognize the importance the new president of the U.S. will have in a world as ours. What do we actually expect at the universal level from the next U.S. administration? I will say a reconstruction of multilateralism, which is not to do only with our own convictions -- which of course, have a lot to do with it, too. You know, the fact that we believe that you can give more legitimacy to the fight against terrorism or against drug trafficking, a fight which must be waged by all democratic societies, but also we think that the decision to pursue unilateral policies, as was the case with this current administration, that has had an impact on the world and has actually had a negative impact on the interests of the U.S. as a country. I would dare say, based on the polls one sees, the image of the U.S. around the world has been negatively affected, and this is something we talked about during our luncheon. And politics is about results. You know, there might have been (good ?) intentions, but politics is about results. MODERATOR: Wouldn't Argentina -- wouldn't Argentina act unilaterally if it felt that its national interests required it? KIRCHNER: In terms of aggression? You mean a war? Well, I would dare say respect for international law, observance of international law in order to accept the rules -- (inaudible) -- would prevent us from doing that. In fact, we have made a strong contribution for no country in the region to take such (status ?). Look, if that were may view, I could have justified Ecuador's responding with an aggression to Colombia due to Colombia's invasion of its territory, but my own attitude, the attitude of Argentina, has been at all times to go all the way back to undo that and to prevent the adoption of unilateral measures by Colombia against -- by Ecuador against Colombia, because there were higher interests in the region which had to do precisely with preserving peace. Preventive action or preventive war is not something we endorse as a measure, and even less so outside the framework of international law. I believe that unilateralism has been bad for the United States. And let me point out the difference between the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan with the consensus of all nations and with the support of all nations, as opposed to the U.S. when dealing with the situation in Iraq, when even some of the allies of the U.S. withdrew their support. I'm not talking about intentions, only about results. Again, in politics you may have the best intentions, but if the results are not good and you are left in isolation, it means that your policies have perhaps not been the best ones. I try to remain as objective as possible. So, what do we expect from the U.S. with regard to our own region? Well, first, I would say, a different look and a different presence in a region. In a way, the United States has distanced itself from our region, and we think that there should be a different position and look at South America. You know, this is something we raised at a meeting of the Americas, I believe in Monterrey. Back then, it was a time when the situation of emerging countries was not yet the one we now get to see in economic or growth terms, and we even talked about the help of the United States. I actually talked to a representative, who is now a senator, a Democrat. He also -- can I mention him or can I say who he was or -- (inaudible). I remember I met with him while he was still a representative; he is now a senator. And I remember he was in favor of setting up a Latin America fund to give assistance to the region with a different, more intensive U.S. presence. The governments of the region now reflect the nature of their own peoples. Again, as I was saying earlier, presidents have never been so close to their peoples and have never resembled their people as much. So we would like more presence from the U.S. in our region. That's what we would expect from your new president. MODERATOR: I have a lot more questions, but I will show uncharacteristic restraint and not -- people have raised their hands. Try to keep your questions short. We'll go to Baldas (sp). QUESTIONER: Thank you. Baldas (sp) from -- (affiliation inaudible). Madame President, you made a very strong cause for multilateralism. I think many of us here -- (inaudible). I'd be interested in your views about the working U.S.-United Nations -- (inaudible) -- multilateral framework. It seems to be quite broken, oftentimes. (Inaudible.) MODERATOR: When you get around to Security Council reform, does Argentina believe it deserves a seat on the Security Council? KIRCHNER: Well, you know, the reform of multilateral organizations, whether multilateral lending agencies or the U.N. itself has been a recurrent topic for Argentina and is something we mention at all U.N. addresses ever since 2003. I think we need to recreate the core, the heart of the Security Council, primarily because the U.N. -- the Security Council was created in light of the charter of San Francisco in a post-war world in which there was bipolarity. This tension between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, which was the hallmark of the whole second half of the 20th century, right up to the fall of the Berlin Wall, made the Security Council necessary, due to the constant tension in face of the nuclear threats in the world. If someone did something outside this framework, there might be some kind of universal nuclear holocaust. And that tension, which was always played out within the Security Council with the veto right, enabled more or less acceptable functioning of the body during the second half of the 20th century. Now, what is the problem? When the Berlin Wall fell and the bipolarity ended, with the U.S. clearly rising above the rest of the world as the leading economic, scientific power, also in terms of its weapons and technology, becoming the absolute number-one world power, that created an imbalance which can no longer be processed within the Security Council, and this is why unilateral policies arise. You can exercise force unilaterally when there's no other force to counteract and resist you now. This is a principle of physics, but which must also apply to politics. In other words, American unilateralism is a result of its own repositioning as the one and only world power. But therein lies as well the problem of a possible weakening of someone who is too strong, although this may sound like a contradiction. This is why, in my own view, it is necessary to reengineer the U.N. and essentially the Security Council. If I were to have a formula as to what the right Security Council would be to guarantee the ballot box, I might be the president of the U.S. and not the other candidates, because that would be finding the way to achieve balance in the 21st century, as was the case with the Security Council to create balance in a highly conflicted world after the Second World War. But the fact that we need to tackle Security Council reform, that we need to give participation opportunities to the new regional players, is out of the question. We must do that. But we should also bear in mind that this breakage of bipolarity and the emergence of this undisputed power that made the current Security Council no longer as adequate. Now, knowing that that is a problem doesn't mean that we have a solution. But it is certainly a big step towards finding a solution as part of an open debate and discussion among all countries. MODERATOR: Yes, ma'am. All the way in the back. QUESTIONER: Thank you, President Kirchner. Kathy Hicks (sp) with Citizen Rights Watch. Argentina was recently elected to the U.N. Human Rights Council, a body that's been extremely ineffective at holding human rights abusers to account, in part because of the ability of abusers to say that initiatives are directed from the north. Will Argentina be a voice (of ?) leadership within the council on ongoing crises like those in Georgia, Somalia and Zimbabwe currently? KIRCHNER: Well, you know that the policy on absolute respect for human rights is one of the basic pillars of our policy and is actually a state policy. Argentina, as you will all know, had one of the most terrible dictatorships in memory, which ended up with 30,000 people disappeared and 500 children who have not yet been found. We have already found 94 children of disappeared persons thanks to the wonderful work of the Mothers of Plaza de Mayo, and tomorrow there will be a ceremony headed by U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. Argentina and another 73 countries have signed the Treaty Against Enforced Disappearances, which, by the way, we have given a strong boost to. We are actually, as you pointed out, on the U.N. Human Rights Council. But only four countries have so far ratified the treaty -- Albania, Argentina, Honduras and Mexico. I think over the next few days, the Republic of France will be ratifying it as well. But the fact is that Argentina's commitment to respect for human rights is -- it's unlimited and unfaltering. And I think we have made quite a lot of progress. Last year I had a meeting with Ann Arbour in Geneva -- with Louise Arbour in Geneva. And, you know, when talking about the Initiative of the Right to the Truth, which was adopted in the U.N., something that had been encouraged by our country, other countries that hadn't been able to advance, you know, we actually had laws that -- (new ?) obedience and -- (inaudible) -- laws, which prevented prosecution of those responsible for the genocide. Actually Mrs. Arbour, the human rights commissioner of the U.N., has acknowledged the key role played by Argentina is the field of human rights by leading to the adoption and creation of instruments such as the Right to the Truth or the Treaty on the Enforced Disappearance of Persons, which at least are instruments to fight for human rights in a world in which human rights are violated on a daily basis. Our commitment -- and I think here again, we may be an example -- we should always be accountable for our actions, and it is true that until the administration of President Nestor Kirchner, impunity had prevailed in Argentina. We had some pre-democratic issues, as I like to say, because people who commit crimes may evade justice and punishment, but in Argentina, those who had committed genocide evaded punishment and the law, not because they escaped, but because one of the powers -- the legislative -- had enacted laws that afforded impunity, which, as I always say, took us back to a pre-democratic stage in our society. When the state itself institutes, punishes and legislates for impunity, it's a pre-democratic state, you know. So I think that the progress in the field of human rights made in Argentina, which has been recognized around the world, and these instruments I have referred to and any other actions we may undertake will help us along. Let me give you some more interesting news. We're working on a worldwide genetic database to work on issues of enforced disappearances, something that we are also going to support at the international level. This is something we think all countries should adopt. And we should take concrete steps every day in this unfaltering fight for the observance of human rights. Thank you for that question, because it gives a chance to tackle an issue which, to my country and due to its own historical experience and to myself personally and due to my political beliefs, represents a policy of state. Thank you. MODERATOR: (Inaudible) -- for one more question. Is there a question on Latin America? I specifically want to make sure that we focus on this part of the world. John? Brief question and hopefully a brief answer, and I apologize for taking a few minutes late, but we started a few minutes late. QUESTIONER: Thank you. I'm John Brademas, a member of the U.S. Congress -- (inaudible). In 1961, I made a trip to Buenos Aires as a member of Congress to look at the state of universities in Argentina, and I've left with your assistant a copy of the report. Can you comment on the -- I was not a senator, I was a congressman). Can you comment on the state of universities in Argentina today and say anything about the possibility of developing relationships with universities in the United States? KIRCHNER: In 1961 when you visited, I was still very little, so I can't remember your visit. But Argentine universities have substantially improved, just as all of the educational system has improved through greater financing. That was also one of the achievements of the administration of President Nestor Kirchner. And actually I had to vote as a senator on the bill on education financing, and for the first time we're going to allocate 6 percent of GDP to education. Of course, our GDP's substantially higher than it was at the time the law was first adopted, and now we can approach the issue of education in Argentina in quite a different way. Universities now have larger projects. The universities and faculty get more money and better pay. We are developing a scholarship system which is aimed at favoring study choices that we consider essential for Argentina's current production model. Argentina used to be a country with a very strong bias towards social sciences, while leaving aside hard science, which is essential for technological development. This is why we are developing a very intensive scholarship program for our high school students to be able to pursue studies in fields that Argentina needs for its production model, and this also targets low-income families with support from the government. And we are making a very strong point of this policy. Besides, one of the economic policies that has most grown in Argentina over the last five years has been in the field of technological software and IT and telecommunications companies. Those are the companies with the largest number of birth rates, and they have grown exponentially. Why is this so? Because our country stands out in Latin America due to its highly qualified human resources. We are the only Latin American country to have three Nobel Prize winners in scientific fields. You can check other Latin American countries and you may find Nobel Prizes for literature, but not for medicine or biology or what we call the strictly scientific world. You know, the public, free universal education system since the end of the 19th century and the upward social mobility typical of this very substantial middle class places us in a very interesting position in Latin America in terms of the education of our human resources. MODERATOR: Well, I want to thank President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner for getting us off to such an interesting start this week, one of the first women presidents we've ever been able to welcome a the Council on Foreign Relations. So thank you very much. (Applause.) .STX   (C) COPYRIGHT 2008, FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC., 1000 VERMONT AVE. NW; 5TH FLOOR; WASHINGTON, DC - 20005, USA. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. ANY REPRODUCTION, REDISTRIBUTION OR RETRANSMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED. UNAUTHORIZED REPRODUCTION, REDISTRIBUTION OR RETRANSMISSION CONSTITUTES A MISAPPROPRIATION UNDER APPLICABLE UNFAIR COMPETITION LAW, AND FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC. RESERVES THE RIGHT TO PURSUE ALL REMEDIES AVAILABLE TO IT IN RESPECT TO SUCH MISAPPROPRIATION. FEDERAL NEWS SERVICE, INC. IS A PRIVATE FIRM AND IS NOT AFFILIATED WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. NO COPYRIGHT IS CLAIMED AS TO ANY PART OF THE ORIGINAL WORK PREPARED BY A UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT OFFICER OR EMPLOYEE AS PART OF THAT PERSON'S OFFICIAL DUTIES. FOR INFORMATION ON SUBSCRIBING TO FNS, PLEASE CALL CARINA NYBERG AT 202-347-1400. THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. -------------------------
  • Americas
    Fixing Social Security in Latin America (Again)
    I recently published this article in the Americas Quarterly policy journal, which was republished in Business Chile. While some in the United States still talk about the introduction of private individual accounts as the way to "save" social security, even the Chileans are rethinking their once vaunted private pension system. After nearly three decades of private pension management, the Chilean system is again poised for reform. This article looks at the dwindling support for private pension systems in Chile and other Latin American countries, the reasons behind this shift, and the potential directions for this wave of social security reform.
  • Americas
    The Return of Inflation
    The one area of real triumph for market-oriented reforms in Latin America was inflation. Unlike the uneven record on poverty, inequality, and economic volatility, structural adjustment and austerity programs of the early 1990s ended high and hyper inflation. These programs brought the Latin American average from 235% per year in the early 1990s to less than 8% by the turn of the century. Low and steady inflation has been a crucial element for attracting both foreign and domestic investment, increasing economic production, and encouraging the economic growth of the last several years. But heterdox economic policies - reminiscent of Sarney’s Brazil, Alfonsin’s Argentina, and Garcia’s Peru (the first time around) - have reemerged. In both Argentina and Venezuela, the Kirchner and Chavez governments are using wage and price controls on basic goods as key parts of economic policy. Venezuela has gone a step further to reintroduce public control and management of "key" industries, including telecommunications, oil, and now perhaps steel and the banking sector. These policies are bringing back worries of inflation and leading to shortages in basic goods. Venezuela’s inflation for 2006 topped 17%, the highest in Latin America. Most expect it to surpass 20% this year. Argentina too has seen increasing inflation, from a negative rate in the late 1990s to 10% last year. As worrisome, Kirchner fired the head of the national statistics agency, INDEC, briefly replacing her with a more malleable political appointee until public clamor forced the promotion of a INDEC senior employee. Shortages in these economies are as important, and hamper both consumer-led and manufacturing-led growth. A recent Wall Street journal article argues that Chavez’s threat to nationalize the steel and banking industries has as much to do with the issue of shortages as with nationalism. News articles, as well as personal conversations, show that shortages and economic bottlenecks are again appearing in Argentina. These mismatches are hampering growth, not to mention the quality of life of individuals within the country. Poverty, inequality, and equal opportunity are key issues for the future of Latin American nations. Government programs to directly improve the health care, education, and resources of the poor are important and laudable. But, these governments should not overlook the dire effects of inflation on poverty and inequality. Inflation hits the poor the hardest. They are the ones least likely to receive compensatory pay raises, and are those unable to hedge their savings in indexed accounts or abroad. High inflation will wipe out any benefits of direct assistance programs, leaving individuals certainly no better off and most likely in a much worse situation. This means that as governments are designing programs for the poor, they need to include measures to keep inflation low, be that independent monetary policy, controlled deficits, and better financial regulation. Only with this combination will governments be able to truly help those at the bottom of the pyramid.